In authoritarian political systems, the death of a leader does not necessarily lead to regime change, as power structures and institutional frameworks often persist regardless of leadership transitions; however, internal power balances within ruling coalitions can become unstable, potentially leading to regime collapse within a relatively short timeframe.
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PUTIN DEAD? Where is the body hidden while Patrushev moves to seize controlAdded:
Roma, since you hold Valeri Deitriovic in such high regard and respect, does that mean that you have no doubts whatsoever about his latest forecasts and the insider information he so generously shares?
They make me smile, ironically, because with all due respect to Valeri Deitriich, as someone from journalism, I want to see the body, you know, at least one or maybe a few one that's alive. We can call it a double, a triple, whatever you like, but there still has to be at least one in the freezer. Maybe we thought him out because I have personally seen Vladimir Vladimir several times. Not that it was very close, but there were moments, not at a press conference, but at other events. He Well, if I were from some Arab country, I could have thrown a slipper at him. Well, really, it was close. He's not very tall and all that.
That's why until there's a body, I consider this discussion counterproductive as it distracts us from the essence of the problem. After all, the Russian I think from a political science perspective, Valeri Deitriovic will agree um well, not necessarily since you are there after all that the Russian Nazi uh Nazi regime is based on a system. And so the question is, will anything change after all the doubles are laid out in a row like this or side by side in a refrigerator or if they are all placed together in a mosoleum? Well, the fundamental point that we must all understand is that a nation as vast as Russia isn't going to simply disappear from the global stage regardless of the specific political outcome we might see once the news of Putin's eventual death is finally and officially confirmed by all of the various interested parties involved in the situation.
>> But Valerie Dimitriovic, admit it. What have you been doing for the past 3 weeks? distracting us from important questions, desacralizing Putin, or are you really sharing your secret knowledge and insights?
>> This event that happened on October 26th is the most important political and historical event of recent years. That's true.
Regardless of how you feel about this right now, gentlemen, you will have grounds to be convinced that this is the absolute truth. Notice that I am speaking about this very calmly, very confidently because I know that evidence will be presented. There will be a lot of it. By the way, I want to remind you that we also know about Prigojin's death only from what we've been told. In fact, Yvghi Victor is alive well and in Venezuela. And by the way, he is preparing to return to Russia. That's the first point. The second point is what Roman mentioned. Although the term Nazi seems a bit too strong to me, but I understand the emotional undertone of that term. Academically, it's not accurate. Roman is right in the sense that Putin's death does not mean the regime will change. The people who have now come to power in Russia, Russia is currently being run by Nikolai Patrushev. He is literally in charge. He is the supreme ruler. They generally want to preserve the foundations of Putin's regime and make it more effective. But I consider the third point to be the most important. As far as I understand the balance of power within the coalition that is currently running Russia and stands behind Patre, the balance is such that the regime will not be able to survive and after Putin's death, the regime itself will collapse.
I can't say right now how quickly its destruction will unfold, but it definitely won't take years.
According to the most cautious estimates, by the end of next year, there will already be a completely different political situation here in Russia. And what is absolutely crucial and deeply significant in the context of Russian Ukrainian relations uh if the word relations is even applicable here and not some other term that is strikingly vivid more powerful and far more intense and emotionally charged in nature. Unfortunately, I can't use that word because it would no longer be appropriate.
>> Let me Valer Dimmitri, let me help you.
It's called war. It's called war >> there. It could even be described in even stronger terms. So what is going to happen in Russia will have the most direct and immediate impact specifically on the relationship between Russia and Ukraine as well as on the course and nature of the military actions.
And from my point of view and I have said this before and will repeat it again. The outcome of this conflict, this confrontation, this war will not be decided by the efforts of the armed forces of Ukraine or by the defense of the Russian armed forces, but by the crisis that will inevitably and unavoidably strike the Russian Federation with all the resulting consequences. That is why this is in fact a matter of primary importance of utmost priority.
Colleagues, there is only one question, Valeri Demitri. Why is it that only the SVR general and you know about this? If you are not part of the same chain, if you are not one and the same, there are such theories as well. Then why is it that the best intelligence agencies in the world probably don't know about what happened or are staying silent? Could it really be that there is some kind of >> global backstage power >> that has decided to turn a blind eye to Putin's death and play along with Petrushev or someone else?
>> You know, that's very interesting.
Today's visitor to Kev, Robert Burns, of course, knows about this. The British are well aware of it and so are the Chinese. All the more so because it wasn't Putin who went to China but rather his double. All of this was being prepared. They were being briefed. They were being informed. Yes, consultations were taking place through the Patre Sullivan channel and through other channels as well. They were being prepared for this. Why are they keeping silent? For a very simple reason. China is not interested in Russia's strategic defeat. And the United States is not interested either. They are afraid of a sharp destabilization of the situation, the collapse of the Russian Federation with a civil war and the loss of control over nuclear weapons. This is the same kind of fear typologically that dominated their behavior at the turn of 1991 to 1992.
The same fears, the same concerns, nothing new. You might say that these fears are exaggerated. I'll say that too. I agree with you. But these are their fears, not ours. Do you understand? They are perfectly aware and Erdogan knows, Xiinping knows, all the major western powers know as well. Yes, it's a kind of conspiracy of silence.
All that's left is for Russian and Ukrainian society to believe it. Just a little thing, >> Valeri Deitravich, I want to speak on behalf of Ukrainian society and say something interesting. You know, we actually don't care whether your theory is correct or not. That's it. We're not going to wait for a crisis in Russia or whether it will fall apart or if Raman Akmato Kadirov will become president of all of Russia. Will Russians be globally declassed in Russia, which is basically what they're doing right now.
Specifically, I am referring to the Kadovites. Uh, and will every single person start to feel envious of Adam Kadarov for the sheer number of orders and medals he received by the time he had reached the age of 16? Our fundamental national ideology and collective actions do not depend on any of this in the slightest. All our efforts are focused on survival and on winning this war. And of course, forgive me Valeri Deitriovich, but again, I have to question your words. I wanted to say I don't believe it, but I can't. I doubt that Yvini Victor Pgojian survived, that he is alive. In any case, his son is there who has taken over the Vagner PMC.
If your idea and your information turn out to be true, I think that judging by Prigoian's recent statements before he left or went to to the under, whether he flew off to Venezuela or to hell, his publicly made statements suggest that it would be easier for us to come to an agreement with him. And I am convinced that we will find ways to peacefully coexist with the Russian state.
You may not like the Nazi phrasing but that doesn't change the essence.
Basically at this point we are in such a stage that for us for us it doesn't matter what happens in Russia. Can you imagine Valeri Demitri how Vladimir Putin over these what 24 years has degraded your country? I mean a person or rather the Kremlin who once had political influence all the way to Chop that's on the border with Hungary has now reduced its political influence to the ruined Bakmut and Marupole. So what now? And what then? And what about the prospect of losing Crimea and the deaths of so many young Russian men? Ethnic Russians by the way because the Navy is made up of ethnic Russians. The pilots are ethnic Russians and there are a lot of military specialties where it's ethnic Russians. There's not a single Kadirovite or Chchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchchion there and all these people they're dying. Well, we have losses here too.
That's for sure. So overall, what do you think Valeri Deitrivich as a historian?
What will happen when he finally dies and everyone acknowledges it? Where will he be buried? A spot in the Kremlin wall or next to Stalin? Maybe they'll put him in Lenin's place. That seems like a good option to me because Lynen >> Putin will be carried on a pike through the main streets of the country.
>> Or yes, maybe they'll carry his head on a pike.
>> That has happened in Russia, too.
>> How will Vladimir Putin go down in history? Well, I still think that he will definitely die.
>> You know, how he will go down in history became clear by noon on February 24th of last year. He wanted to go down in history. That was his dream. And he will go down in history forever after February 24th. naturally with an entirely negative connotation. There is absolutely no doubt about that. By the way, I was already saying this on the 24th and 25th of February. He dreamed of going down in history, but he didn't make it. And it's clear how. That's the first point. Second, well, right now the leader's body leader in quotation marks is in a refrigerator at the Valdai residence. And by the way, that's very symbolic. You see, a man who threatened the whole world, who was feared, who had colossal plans for conquest, and he really did, who wanted to control all of Europe, is now being kept frozen in the same place where provisions used to be stored. Now, the body will be moved, though it's still not clear exactly where. Well, they're thinking about it now. Third, this is the syndrome >> of trampling on a dictatorial regime.
>> But what about Alina?
>> This is the natural outcome. It's natural regarding the funeral. You know, it's very interesting and in a way tragically comical that during his lifetime he repeatedly told close friends, this is a quote, "I don't want people to come to my grave just to take a piss. And I honestly can't imagine where you could bury this body without ending up with that result. I really can't imagine if it's even possible to bury him in that case." You understand?
Ultimately, the point isn't that Ukrainians don't care about what happens in Russia. I understand that perfectly well. Moreover, if I were living in Ukraine right now and was a Ukrainian citizen, I would probably, not even probably, I would definitely hold a very similar position and maybe even express myself more definitively. The point is it's not all the same to the other participants in this struggle. That's what's important. If we want to get to some kind of I would say bottom line to try to feel out something concrete.
China cares, the United States cares.
Gentlemen, you know perfectly well that if the United States wanted Russia to be defeated on the battlefield and if Ukraine had received enough advanced weaponry, the right types and in the right quantities, it would have received it. And it hasn't and it won't because the United States is not interested in a strategic defeat of Russia. It's very important to understand this on the battlefield from my point of view and I wrote about this even before General Zeljuni spoke two months earlier. Yes, this is a strategic stalemate. It is hardly possible to overcome it through military efforts.
Most likely this stalemate will be broken as a result of the developments he described as a result of a political crisis in the Russian Federation.
What will happen next between Russia and Ukraine and what kind of relationship will there be?
Uh well, it's clear what will be written in Ukrainian history textbooks. That is quite clear to me, right? There's no doubt about that. But you know, in Russian history textbooks, there will be almost nothing about this. I'm sure of that as well because this is not a page to be proud of. And as you well know from your everyday observations, people prefer to forget things that, to put it mildly, are not a source of pride for them, but have put them in a very unpleasant position, in a very uncomfortable situation.
>> Well, you know, we understand what you're trying to say, that if these shameful pages do not appear in the Russian Federation's textbooks, then Russia will continue to remain an empire.
>> No. No. The thing is what's happening now is that in principle Russia in my view when it well in Putin's words returned Crimea to its home harbor that was the peak of its capability the peak of its potential.
What was done to Ukraine even if it had happened in 2014 or 2015 when military capabilities were completely incomparable. It would have ended the same way. By the way, Roman and I discussed this several times in Moscow.
It still would have ended in a political catastrophe for Russia. I emphasize because it is impossible to control a country simply impossible. That is based on entirely different historical and cultural foundations. Of course, I know about the ethnic closeness of Russians and Ukrainians, their cultural similarities, but they are still different peoples. I myself lived in Ukraine for quite a long time and still understand Ukrainian, although I already speak it with difficulty. Of course, it's different. And in addition, the peoples that have formed over the past 20 years are completely different in terms of political culture. That is, the distance between them is very great. All of this still led to a political catastrophe. In other words, the outcome would most likely have been the same.
That's why Russia will not be an empire.
That's the first point. Second, right now, two approaches to a peace agreement are being discussed.
Well, actually, there are three approaches. The first approach is the one supported by Patrav's group. It more or less coincides with the approach of the late Putin. But simply when Putin is gone, it seems easier to talk about it.
This is the following approach. Let's negotiate on the terms of maintaining the status quo. Let's take what we have now and on these terms first make peace and then sign peace agreements. But as the well-known joke goes, all that's left is to convince the Queen of England. But in our case, what's left is to convince official Kiev and most importantly Ukrainian society. And that's a very serious, very serious problem.
Judging by sociology and international sociology as well, the second approach is much more flexible, much more flexible. It demonstrates the ability and willingness for a very broad compromise. I won't go into more detail, but I would say it's the broadest possible compromise. And within this compromise, even the issue of Crimea is not considered settled. That is, it remains a subject for discussion.
I mentioned three positions. No, actually there are two. Essentially, there are two positions with some nuances. But all of this fits within the framework of these two positions.
Moreover, over the past three weeks, if you noticed, there have been three hints from the Russian side about readiness for peace talks by Lucenko, Shyigu, and Ushakov. the aid to the late Putin. All of this, yes, was done at Patrochev's initiative. Patre is ready to enter into peace negotiations. I can tell you that if the Ukrainian offensive had been successful and there were very strong fears of this in the Russian general staff in the spring of this year with expectations being frankly panicked, then it was assumed that the discussion would be about the status of Crimea exclusively, the status of Crimea and nothing else. since the offensive turned out to be not so successful and I'm putting it mildly and it will not become more successful at least within the framework of the winter campaign. That's how it is seen. There is now cautious optimism in the general staff. I've already mentioned a very important indicator and it's a distinctly Russian one but understandable to everyone.
General Garasimov has quit drinking.
From June 24th, the day of Prigoin's mutiny, he hadn't been sober.
That lasted until about midepptember. In midepptember he quit drinking.
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