In democratic systems, political power dynamics often create cycles where leaders who were initially supported by patrons eventually become targets for those same patrons, as demonstrated by the pattern of political withdrawals and power struggles in Nigerian politics. This occurs because political relationships are fundamentally based on mutual benefit and interest, which change over time. When political calculations prioritize power consolidation over serving the people, democracy suffers as the fundamental purpose of governance is undermined. The speaker emphasizes that democracy is fundamentally about the people, not about individual leaders or political patrons, and any political process that excludes the people from receiving the dividends of democracy represents a failure of the democratic system.
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Our Actions Could Destroy Democracy – Dotun OjonAdded:
Papers are going to the first for Bala withdraws withdraws as APC governors emerge sole aspirants. That's one of the biggest story of the front page there.
Without further ado, we'll go straight to that story. It's not just for Bala.
We also have George Kelly who George Kelly has withdrawn. Also Mr. Tonye Cole also withdrew from the race of being the River State governor, especially for the primaries. What's your take on this back and forth?
>> see coming and what's the implication?
Okay, so I never saw the withdrawal coming. I only >> Just like I shake it, never saw it.
>> [laughter] >> You are [laughter] hereby banned from making any sound. The dictatorship >> [laughter] [laughter] >> Please continue. So I I actually never saw it coming. The permutation for me has always been the fact that Bala was going to lose the primary, but I think he was wise enough to get to that point of saying, "Oh, see, I cannot continue."
And you see it's always been the same template since I can remember since 19 79 that a godfather gives you structure, funds you, gets you power, and at the end of the day you get to power and the demands of the godfather becomes burdensome to you. A pound of flesh is more than a pound of flesh. Your demeanor also becomes offensive to the godfather and always there's always a contest of power after that.
>> [laughter] >> But again, it's always been that in politics there are two basic strategies.
If you are in this situation, it's either you become tougher or you become meaner.
For you to become meaner, it means that you have the structure on ground. And when anybody backs at you, you back back.
But it's going to be the height of unseriousness if you want to become meaner without having the structure and the power in place. The second option is to become tougher. When they spit on your face, you rub it there and you say, "I need to get this job done." Unfortunately, no matter how you want to see it, the act of becoming anything in politics is an offensive act. What do I mean?
When Wike brought Fubara, he offended a lot of people Yeah. who said, "Where did you get this man from?" At that point in time, he was just looking for somebody he was able to trust. And I said that you will not get to a point where you will forget all of this. And you can be emotional about it. Let me tell you a personal story.
I was in a mess trying to fix something. And the guy that was driving me said, "Sir, I have a contribution of 30,000 I will not forget the story. I have a contribution of 30,000 that I'm I have done in the church. It is actually my turn to collect the money." So, he drove me to the church, collected the 30,000 and handed it over to me to fix what I needed to fix at that point. About two or three years later, the guy ran with my over a million there.
Do you know that everybody was saying, "Go arrest him." But I was not seeing the part that he ran with my I was seeing the 30,000 that he gave me years back to bail me out. At every point, we are made to offend one another. But we must not get to a point where we will forget everything that we've done for one another at the in in the process of governance that we afflict or affect the people. What has happened in Rivers? And we are not here to queue behind anybody. It's an unfortunate situation. You cannot have a tenure of four years and three years of those tenures is to settle one crisis or the other.
Then, where is the dividend of democracy that the people voted for you to actually give to them. So, I think now there's no nobody is a loser at the end of the day. Because for you to have ruled a state like Rivers for four years, you are not a loser. How about the people, the Rivers people?
Those are the major concern.
My concern, you know, I've repeatedly said it that at the end of the day, democracy is about the people, not about the governor, not about the godfather.
It's about the people. And any process, any agreement, any permutation, any project or program that excludes the people or take them away from getting the dividend of democracy is something that we should not encourage.
And I'm really very sad about what I miscalculated something in my in my evaluation of this whole thing, and it was my own miscalculation was that I thought that in the next term of President President President Tinubu, it would it would be him conversing for for the favor of Nigerians, of the fondness that Nigerians have given to his opponents. I think he wants that. And so, in my calculation of this whole if he wins, right? And in my calculation of this, I thought that this would have been the vehicle to get the favor or the fondness of Nigerians. This This got my own calculation and when I was looking at the board, I thought to myself, the only way that Fubara would come back is if he wants the the fondness of of of Rivers State. Do you think that the number one leader or the leader of the APC has washed his hands completely and damned all of of of the goodwill of Nigerians and by extension Rivers State by this move. Okay, so unfortunately >> Or is it just politics?
>> No, unfortunately, you see, our situation in Nigeria becomes dicey when you look at the percentage of the people that decides our destiny direction. What do I mean? The political people in Rivers belong to Wike.
As we speak. So, any action of the president that favors Wike is a right cause in politicking. So, he doesn't he doesn't want the fondness is more or less Cuz Wike is instrumental. Then so how do you get the vote? Majority of those people. Yes, majority of those people who come on the air to make some of these analysis are valueless when it comes to democracy. Majority of them cannot even control two people. So, when you when when you're doing your political calculation, you're looking at the numbers because politics at the end of the day is about numbers. Who gets you the highest of the number? And at the end of the day President Tinubu is the greatest beneficiary. Whether Fubara gets the ticket or not, he still has something to lose.
He still has something to lose.
>> it? Oh.
After office, you will see it. So, he needs to do everything possible to ensure that at the end of the day, he's not sent because now he has come across as somebody who cannot keep agreement.
Governor Fubara never came out to say that to talk about the details of the agreement that he has consistently entered into. It is not one, it is not two, sir. So, he hasn't said anything.
Now, if he says tomorrow that oh, he's going to support another person outside of President Tinubu in Nigeria kind of politics, he will pay dearly for it. I don't think he would do that. That would be suicidal. Yeah.
What if he decides to move to the NDC?
He cannot.
>> He cannot. The you Yes, you can only move there as a spectator.
You cannot move there as a contestant.
No, it's good. So, that that that's what that's what the issue is.
>> long line of persons who have been instrumental to to the notoriety that um the APC has, whether it's El-Rufai, you it's El-Rufai, their fits have I mean we've seen how it's played out.
>> Mhm. Are you saying after the elections are won and and if the president wins this election come 2027 and becomes president we can will become disposable?
It See, in in in Nigeria kind of politics, there's no permanent enemy and there's no permanent friend. Anything can happen. What divides people the most is interest. And of course, after the 2027 election, interest will change. The interest will not be about Bola Ahmed Tinubu again. It will be about who becomes what in 2031. And this is what I want everybody to learn from the politician. No matter how you see them, but the power of planning is always very present with them. They begin to plan for the next election on the day of the last one. So, after 2027, the permutation will change, the game plan will change, the loyalty will change, and the direction of political calculation and involvement will also change. At that point in time, it doesn't matter who does what. The interest is that who becomes what in 2031 will overshadow whatever is this that will be done between 2027 and 2031.
And let me quickly say it, there's always a reason for the godsons and the godfather to fight.
If you trace it backward because I wanted to actually look through history.
And one of the things that stood out for me was what happened between 1979 and 1983. Let's start from Kwara state. From Olusola Saraki and Adamu Atta, their own story was so uh how elementary that one of the things that Saraki said at that point in time was the fact that the governor stopped receiving him at the airport.
Uh yes, that's one of the things he said. That the governor actually stopped receiving him at the airport. And because of that, he had problem. And you can continue to actually look at it. You remember the case of Ibadan, the Debo story. The worst of it is the case of Inigie. They came into the government house to abduct him.
While he was governor, because they said this agreement is agreement that they are talking about. It's not today, oh.
It was the issue of agreement. They said this man signed agreement. He never had the political capacity to win election.
So, he signed an agreement, help me with Andy Uba. And at the end of the day, he reneged.
>> Yeah. They came into the governor governor's house and kidnapped him. Do you know why all of these things are happening? And it's like President Tinubu, he has seen that other people did worse.
President Obasanjo within a short period of time. Yes, he did. And that's that's my fear. There will be somebody again who will come after Tinubu, who will be crazier.
And we do a lot of things. And if we are not careful, we will destroy this our democracy with our hands. And that is my fear.
>> very well said. But let's let let's take a look at this Nigeria, Binger. Yes.
This Nigeria we bowed. But I I want us to before we go to, I mean, this Nigeria, I want us to look at this.
Because as far as I'm concerned, it should be the number one topic in the land. We've seen a beheading, we've seen insecurity. Without people, you wouldn't even have these elections to to start with if there's no peace in the land.
So, I want us to look at Abbas demands rescue as military deploys jets.
Oh, your abduction. And also, establish the editorial for Punch newspaper says, establish Southwest security trust fund.
Now, my question is this.
Deploy military jets. Will that How would that help rescue the people in the national park? You have drones, you have people on the ground. And the first 48 hours is very important. The presidency didn't even acknowledge this until later Monday. And then, establish security Southwest security trust fund. More money, more money. Is it a money issue or or capacity issue like just get this job done with?
Governors in our democracy or any kind of governance is about five piece.
Number one is um program and policies of government.
Number two, project.
But the most important one number three is poverty. Number four, prosperity and the fifth one is poverty. Your poverty determines whether your people will enjoy prosperity or poverty. What we have at the moment is not that the bandits are more powerful. It's just that our priorities are wrong.
What are the When we lay emphasis on who becomes what while we have not um safeguarded our country, then our priority becomes questionable.
I believe in Nigeria to a point where I know that we have the capacity if we make a resolution that we want to flush out bandit.
I was here on the program and I painted a gory picture of the strategy of Boko Haramism and bandits in Nigeria. And it's like nobody is listening. The other day, I was here when I told the story of how they gathered money to pay ransom.
>> Yeah. And it was the guy they rescued that was paying the money back for to people that they borrowed the money from.
>> Mhm. And I said it with banditry in Nigeria, they are not so intelligent. It's like stealing meat from the okra soup. If you look very well, you will see the direction that they are going. Look at this very carefully.
At a point you heard that before um the former governor of Ondo State died, there were some sensitive report and it kept coming out um um um Akure, Akeredolu. And that's why you saw that he was fierce about the issue of Amotekun because they were coming from Kogi and they've taken a huge part of Ondo State especially from the Owo or say axis. Now, they're coming from that direction. They're coming from Ibadan from Oyo state to look for they're coming from Kwara through Oyo state. The target the utmost target is Lagos.
And you may ask the question, why are they targeting Lagos?
When President Goodluck Jonathan was there, the strategy of his security men, we were able to peep into it, was the fact that let them cage Boko Haramism within the northeast. For them to make a statement, they came and bombed the UN house.
That brought international attention and it discredited the government. If they get by any chance they get to Lagos, do you know what that means?
It means that they've taken over Nigeria because it's the only place that is left.
And you can see the direction. They're coming through three ways. They're coming from the old those states houses.
And you can see the trailers they're coming. They're kidnapping, they're killing people, they're taking ransom.
They're coming from Oyo state. And now there's a road that leads Ibadan to Ijebu-Ode, they've taken over that road again. Uh defense headquarters uh just two days ago said that the bandits and criminal elements and terrorists uh don't have a base in the southwest.
But meanwhile the Aare Onakakanfo um Mr. Gani >> As well as flooded uh said that they are known terrorist uh locations within the southwest. So, what are we to believe? Okay, so um speaking from both sides you discover that um the military knows what they're saying.
They know the reality, but they don't want to speak panic. But the truth is that there's already panic. Last week, was it this week? This week. School shut down in Ogbomosho.
Shop shop down in Ogbomosho because people were afraid.
>> Mhm. So, they've already created that panic within the community. So, what to do to douse the tension is not just to speak about the fact that when you say they are not terrorist camps and they are kidnapping, does it align? It doesn't align. These people are taking these people to somewhere. So, they may not be camped. Okay, let's even agree that they they are not camped. But, they are kidnapped.
Should be I told you how this thing started.
Locals have actually bought franchise into crime.
And it's always a product I've said it before, psychologically and sorry, philosophically, the principle of 10%.
If 10% of your populace choose to to do crime, it is the duty of government to rally the remaining 90%. Against this 10%. But, you know what happens? When you don't rally the 90% against the 10% and the 90% begins to see Yes, when they Yes, when they begin to see that suddenly somebody bought a car in the community. When they begin to see that somebody built house who is not a politician, they begin to ask, "What's the source of your wealth?" And before you know it, they begin to actually recruit people into it. That's why the volatility is this high.
Are there camps? I don't know.
Are the people being robbed daily? I do know. So, the reality is facing us in the eye and we can no longer pretend.
Are there camps? Could be. I mean, because they could be because I mean, look at the old oil. Yeah, so there could be camps as well. Um when you talk about locals, there's an image that just popped up in my mind. Um this was early 2000s. Um my my stepmother is from Kaduna State, right? And so, we were during the long holidays, we would travel by road to Kaduna State. And the reason why is cuz we'll make stops along the way to go to Cross River, where we're from, right? It was more enjoyable, but there was something that stood out to me. There were three three um a car who that was moving with the speed of lightning, but it looked like they were going for a funeral. So, their car was filled, it was overloaded, right? So, it had a lot of foodstuff. And then, just as we passed it, it had overturned. It got into an accident. Now, it's very ghastly, but there's likelihood of somebody would have survived although internal injury. But, what was interesting about that scene was that apparently, I didn't know how these people had come out immediately and they were now pulling up pulling out the people the food stuff in the in the vehicle and they were by the roadside they were older I'm not going to say the tribe older gentlemen who were there like okay you bring the rice you bring the garri. This is isolated village that is on the express by the side and then the driver said something he said they caused that accident.
He said they caused that accident. And so it it makes you wonder how much more of the ungoverned areas and those places that are deserted that have caused that could be happening that we do not know in the urban areas. The truth is that we can condemn any government and I keep saying it your government is a reflection of your mentality your mindset how you would do something and all of that. That's why you see people are greedy in government have you noticed but go to a party where they are sharing what what what what what do they use?
Paka Paka sharing paka paka Men will be fighting because of paka.
You continue to wonder do you want to go and sweep in your house?
Men will be fighting so the government [laughter] it it is just a reflection of who we are and we must get to a point where we become extremely serious. And now you can talk about the leaders and the followers kind of a theory in leadership that who is supposed to change? Is it the leaders or the followers? And I'm going to bust your bubble. It's easy to say oh it's the leaders that will change but how many of us can actually change the process that benefit us?
Presently the Nigeria that is not working the structural deficit we have is benefiting our leaders so they are not going to change anything. It is the followers because democracy as long as we are in a democracy it is the followers that will change. Just yesterday sorry in Akure North local government of Ondo state they were doing primary election. So they are told them that they should come out and come and take 1,000. So, a lot of people The person didn't see it coming.
The entire community almost emptied itself into the ground. When he saw it, he said, "No, I changed my mind. I'm making 500." Despite that, people are still fighting. They said, "I just came to collect my 500." That's the kind of people we are. Mr. Dotun John, weaponization of poverty is a sad reality. When will the day of reckoning come for us that we will reject 1,000 and 500 naira? for the trumpets to blow.
>> [laughter] >> Baba Rilwan Bello is what?
We will wrap up, my people. Thank you so much for watching.
Thank you very much. All of you are back tomorrow.
Judith, thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you, Mr. Dotun John. Wonderful.
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