This Week In Charts Ep 264: Despite Large Economic & Geopolitical Problems, US Stock Indexes at ATH

Ajouté : 2026-06-02

[00:00:01]The historic rally on Wall Street continues as we've seen rotation into a few other sectors.

[00:00:07]Possible momentum slowing in semiconductors, but overall market continuing higher at a new all-time high close. This is this weekend charts. My name is Aaron with Carnivore Trades.

[00:00:18]You can also find Jason on Patreon at Wall Street for mainstream and me on carnivore.com for swing trading alerts, analysis, and live day trading. We took the Memorial Day week off. Uh hope everybody had a nice little break here.

[00:00:32]We had a shortened week this week and uh four green days for the S&P. So, we'll kind of recap the last uh two weeks really. Uh but you can see we we did kind of dip a little bit um into that uh kind of Memorial Day time frame. Then we just kind of floated back up. So, we kind of retested the 20 moving average here. And um you know, market is is still uh you know, trending very nicely here. But we did see a little bit of slowing in semiconductors this week. You can see SMH here. It did close up, you know, for the week. We gapped up, but um that kind of, you know, parabolic momentum has arguably slowed a little bit, right? So, we had a big run, a one-two dip, and then just straight up, pull back, straight up, but now we're kind of going sideways again. So, we've lost that kind of angle there in the semis. We did have a huge move in Dell, um, you know, thanks to Trump buying it, I guess, a few weeks ago. Um but you know a ridiculous move for a stock of that size. But um you know you can see the socks here as well. Um same kind of deal. And by the way socks right now if this can hit I believe 60 614 which is only about 7% away. Um and this was up like 6% on Tuesday. Uh it's only about 7% away. Um that would be up 100% from the March low. So that's two months. and we had a monthly close on uh Friday as well. One thing I do find a little interesting here is that NVDA Nvidia. It might might seem like a subtle kind of non inconsequential thing, but it did close below the prior breakout high, right? So, it it was unable to do that and it was only by a dollar or so, but uh these things do matter. Um the last time that happened was um November 2024 where it tried to break out on the monthly and failed. It led to a good pullback. I'm not saying that happens here, but I do think it is noteworthy. Um, because it's not a coincidence when these things do happen, even though it may seem like it.

[00:02:29]Nvidia as well is at this point it's a blue chip. So, if you're chasing yield, you're not going to get that with Nvidia. You're, you know, that's why you're seeing, you know, the Microns of the world, SNDK's, uh, you know, even Dell right at this point. So, um, Nvidia, I believe, uh, Jensen will be in Taiwan at a conference this week, so we'll see if that moves the stock, but we did see a little bit of rotation. I've been talking about cloud software and, uh, you know, everybody hates it until it starts railing and then they want to dip to buy, but you got to get in when it's ugly. And, um, you know, we've had, we've done very well, uh, you know, members, uh, with Carnivore Trades. A lot of us have had, uh, Microsoft, you know, that has had a nice move the last couple of days. Oracle, a lot of my members have this. I personally picked up Palanteer last week and that had a nice move into the end here uh of this prior week. So cloud getting a nice move. Uh Snowflake huge pop on earnings and uh you're seeing uh Salesforce as well. Uh nice move on Friday did pick that up uh into earnings also. So cloud getting a little bit of a bid off the lows here and uh you know picking up the slack for semis. We also saw a few other sectors like healthcare start to inch up. This has come uh nicely off of this kind of falling wedge breakout here and it's back above the 200 day moving average. You know, a lot of other sectors starting to wake up just a little bit. Um nothing crazy though. You know, we're not seeing that full-on rotation yet, but we did see an all-time high close uh again this week in the Russell and the Dow. So, you know, a lot of people talking about like the breadth of the rally is not very good, but I don't really see that. you know, equal weight al equal weight S&P all-time high close. Equal weight Q's all-time high close. So, um, you know, is it slowing down? Is the breadth slowing down a little bit? Yeah, you know, it is a little, but um, I don't think it's anything to really worry about just yet.

[00:04:18]I will say though, if the semis do lose this momentum, they have they make up such a large portion of the S&P now and the NASDAQ and there really isn't any support here.

[00:04:29]Um, I mean, outside of this little zone right here, it did not build any support on the way up. So, you know, especially on the weekly, right? So, if this comes in, um, you know, I'm not sure what would it take to to to make that happen. It'd have to have some sort of air pocket, but, um, there just, you know, there could be a little risk. We'll just say that. But, I don't see any problems just yet. Uh, transports had a good week as well. Uh, DJT up. Uh, we talked about bonds few weeks ago. There's a lot of talk about yields and uh you know I said hey not so fast here um and I actually picked up a uh a bond long a swing long on TMF essentially it's like a TLT play and uh that's had a very nice move off the lows bond market was very very very short bonds uh in the futures and there was some convexity on the on the upside.

[00:05:17]still don't think bonds are, you know, a good long-term investment at all in this environment. But, um, you know, as a swing trader, you can take advantage of these, uh, these nice moves, and it's paid out very nicely. Um, so market, you know, seeing a lot of churn here. I don't think there'll be any serious issues right now until probably at least the SpaceX IPO. Um, they're going to want to keep the market up into that.

[00:05:40]That's a $1.8 8 trillion valuation by the way for a company that has 4.9 billion in net loss uh net gap loss.

[00:05:50]So they're trading at 96x sales. Uh actually I'll let you guys talk about that. But yeah, you're seeing the uh the space names uh have a nice run into the uh into this and I I think they'll try to keep the the market up into that. But anyway, uh for the S&P, you know, we're in good shape here below 7500, uh with conviction could bring us back into the range towards 7350 uh if we do uh inch down for the Q's here. Um you know, back below 720. We did close the week above this trend line as well.

[00:06:30]So, we'll see if that continues to hold.

[00:06:32]You can see on the NQ uh it was able to to get back up. Just incredible. So, we've essentially reclaimed the rate of ascent from 2025.

[00:06:45]Incredible stuff. Uh, what else we got?

[00:06:48]Banks, little choppy, but ultimately support held this week. I don't I don't hate this uh weekly chart here on XLF.

[00:06:57]KRE as well. Nice weekly bull pattern.

[00:07:02]Broker dealers. Uh, they did dip back below support, but had a nice bounce on Friday. So, nothing terrible there. Uh, flipping over to commodities, oil breaking down a little bit again. Uh, we're getting like we get a peace deal uh, headline every single day lately.

[00:07:19]And, uh, I wish I was making that up, but it's pretty much what happens. And the market rallies on on every one of them, as if it's not already priced in.

[00:07:27]Oil obviously selling on that. So, down the last two weeks. However, I I'll say this. um each day this week it has had buyers coming at the end of the day. So you see in these tails here, these wicks at the low and it is making lower lows and lower closes but but but not by much here and uh we still you know haven't taken out the May pivot on a supposed peace deal, right? So that that does raise a red flag to me, right? If if the war is off, right? That should be like the most bearish thing for for oil, right? if they're going to reopen the straight, why is oil not even below the prior low from May, right? This should be crashing. So, I do think there's some, you know, um I do think at least oil tries to retest 95 sooner rather than later, possibly even this trend line here, maybe back up to 100.

[00:08:17]And it wouldn't surprise me if that deal gets walked back like it always does. Um so, I do think uh oil's good here for maybe a little bounce. Um, and I don't know, we'll see what happens from there.

[00:08:28]Another thing that I found interesting is XLE.

[00:08:31]It did close below this little uptrend here, but there's still space for a higher low on the daily, right? This has been making higher lows since April.

[00:08:39]Again, on supposed peace deal talk, right? So, I don't think energy is uh is really dead here. Uh, XOP did kind of break down. This is the one I don't, you know, like as much. Um, OIH finally lost that that trend line. I do think they these might be liquidity grabs, though.

[00:08:55]So, watch XLE. If it can, you know, clear, you know, get back above, uh, next week, it could squeeze back up. And I do think this heads up into June, maybe back up to double top. We'll see.

[00:09:07]Uh, dollar index sideways and it's been sideways for over a year.

[00:09:16]Shortterm, uh, you know, 98.50 support.

[00:09:20]Um if it can break above 9950 go to 100 maybe 105.

[00:09:26]Gold was very interesting this past week. So a really tight range here. So it rolled over uh two weeks ago. Really tight range. Tried to break down couldn't. It got back above the 200. I think gold actually looks okay here in the next week for a rally.

[00:09:43]So uh possibly back up to 48 maybe 5k. And again, the the rally in bonds will help with that. So TLT with a nice rally there that's helping out the uh it's giving a tailwind of PMs. And what's interesting is that silver was outperforming gold. Let me get rid of this trend line here.

[00:10:05]So notice how silver here when it we had that sell two weeks ago.

[00:10:10]Got your low here from April. We never made a lower low and then it tried to, you know, tried to dip there versus gold which made a lower low, right? But then gold kind of rebounded better than silver on Friday. So silver was outperforming uh gold on the on the sell and it kind of like on Friday kind of stalled out.

[00:10:33]Um so interesting to see how that relationship holds up next week, but uh yeah, still doing okay. SILJ was up on Friday as well and so was GDX. These charts still look pretty good to me. I like this kind of uh weekly kind of consolidation here.

[00:10:52]Even on the monthly, you know, big big reversal there, you know, does need to consolidate more, but I I don't hate these charts right now.

[00:11:00]PL and PA kind of more of the same. Um PL needs to clear 2000 to rally, and PA was a little weak on Friday.

[00:11:10]That's a danger. Copper continues to hold up. It backed down to 620 uh last week and uh has been higher lows here.

[00:11:18]So, we'll see if the administration shorts this [laughter] again. Uh that 620 seemed to be the max pain for them for a while, but it is above that now. And then here's one that I find interesting right now. Bitcoin that did sell off a little bit this week. I think this could be a little bit of a trap though. If this clears 75, this should squeeze. So, I actually do like Bitcoin here. Um, as long as it can hold really this this local low, you know, I would say 70 when 71 below that would be a little bit of a concern. Maybe I'd give it grace to 70, but uh I I don't think it needs to get there. I I would be surprised if this takes off next week. Uh very very very poor sentiment on in crypto right now, too. Everyone hates it.

[00:12:07]But anyway, yeah, so market's continuing to hold up. Uh I did see some momentum uh slow down in semis.

[00:12:15]As long as they hold up, the market will be fine and the market continue to rotate. But if they start to really lose steam, um I would get a little, you know, cautious here because they have had a parabolic run. Um the problem is when you don't build supports on the way up, there's none on the way down. So, but anyways guys, we'll wrap it up here.

[00:12:35]You guys take care. Don't forget to find Jason on Patreon and me on carnivore trades.com.