West Bengal Polls Phase 2 | What Will Be The Impact Of S.I.R Deletions On The Final Result? | N18

Hinzugefügt: 2026-04-29

[00:00:00]There is a theory that these particular border regions and these constituencies are polling under the average the state average because perhaps >> perhaps >> a large number of people have been a taken out. Number two that propensity to vote that chapa vote this time under the security blanket has been removed from the equation. that if if these if these assemblies are recording a lower turnout compared to the previous election.

[00:00:30]Always you have to see in comparison to the previous election because every constituency has a particular behavior and how many we put it we put those numbers compared to the actual point but we're also looking at the average overall state average they are polling lower than the state average on an average one second on an average in the 24 paras and the 20 south and the 24 paranas north >> we can even show you that si deletion data it's quite heavy per constituency the average >> this is the this is the TMC stronghold that you're talking about the TMC stronghold but these are also one to see that you know of the 90 lakh or whatever deletions >> just one/ird are Muslim deletions >> so actually more Hindu deletions have taken place so you can't think and then you don't know in this state in the Hindu deletions now what does it mean Hindu community doesn't vote as a block for either the TMC or% of the host 40% there is a difference here you see We don't know how many of those Hindus were living Hindus >> and how were dead Hus or dead Hindusigrated or had migrated.

[00:01:36]>> That's so bizarre. That's >> so so somebody was casting a vote in their name.

[00:01:40]>> Yeah.

[00:01:40]>> And that's the problem. So it's not just that okay there were people who are illegals who got onto the voter list but there are also dead people and missing people and people who've immigrated who are also voting by the way.

[00:01:53]>> Very Manoj night shaman. I see dead people.

[00:01:55]>> Interesting. Interestingly, uh phase 1 at 5 p.m. was 89.9%. Phase 2 at 5 p.m.

[00:02:01]is 90%. So they are actually going neck and neck and mirroring each other in terms of the overall voter turnout. And in 2021 overall, >> and they say so many people go out to work >> and still the turnout is 90%.

[00:02:15]>> How many people go out to work in Bengal? There >> wow. That's quite a politician speaking.

[00:02:27]BUT HANG ON, HANG ON. It might also be that there's a holiday. You see, don't forget that the state does the EC does say that you can take the day off. So polling >> or they're saying there are no jobs to come to work.

[00:02:40]>> No, I mean that's too simplistic in our country. Look, this is a sacrosang principle and we honor it. We respect it and we go out and vote. That's why it creates so much problems when people actually don't exercise their franchise because then they're being irresponsible given the premium that people put at voting.

[00:02:57]>> I think we should we should also voters of Bengal for coming out in such large numbers and setting an example you know >> I mean even the US is 50%. So >> imagine nine out of 10 voters in Bengal in phase one >> in the US of course you don't even need an ID card to vote so I don't even know why they're not coming out anyhow. Yes, psychological point. It's just when you're looking for >> You mean to say we were not making any substantial psychological point.

[00:03:19]>> Additional psychological point which is this that >> you're not looking for a swing across the state where the swing matters. If you get a two or two and a half% swing and about 50 odd seats that will change this whole election and those are battleground seats which were won by less than 50% less than 5% difference last time or where there were big swing between >> give me the math on that.

[00:03:41]>> Right. So there there are some which are in North Bengal which are in BJP areas.

[00:03:45]There are some which are in jungle mahel which are more volatile but some of those are in Kolkata.

[00:03:49]>> Kolkata.

[00:03:50]>> Now which seats which have won by low margins or seats which saw huge changes between 15 and 21. You just need a 2 3% swing here that election may be decided in those 50 60 seats and not necessarily even if everything else >> let me give you some numbers seats BJP lost narrowly in the last elections.

[00:04:09]narrowly in the sense of below 5,000 10,000 votes. Below 10,000 votes is about 70 75 seats.

[00:04:16]>> Yes.

[00:04:16]>> Below 10,000. So if you're able to gain 10,000 votes in every assembly, you will get >> it's not even gain sim deletions. Yeah. Yeah. If we have >> S doesn't help any either party. No, but but but what I'm trying to say is S deletions. If you look Yeah. Have a look at this. How much it has shaved the Trinumul Congress margin. Now the Truman Congress victory margin in Hugli is 19,915 across 18 seats. That's the average victory margin. Look at the average deletion. The average elite deletion is 17,333 seats. So sazar victory margin you have brought it down to what is what if all 17,000 have not pled >> may not have pled or >> maybe they they were absent at the time of enumeration they were absent they were there they they're found to be dead or duplicate voters and it's it's all possible that all of them or most of them or majority of them have not you're right that's a what scenario but this is also a what if scenario >> and even if they voted they may have voted to be fair to jasmi he's wearing ologist hat right now and he's actually right. We don't also know if all of these individuals >> voted for the TMC >> whether they were bonafide TMC voters.

[00:05:35]We can only assume given the vote shares etc etc and the demographic composition that a substantial number might be >> thing is this deep this merits a deep dive especially look at purbaan again 16 seats the BJP did not crack Purba Bardaman BJP did not crack Kolkata look at the differentials 16,688 deletions whereas the average victory margin for the trumul is 14,951 so if the trumul congress is going to look and see out of the 16688 8 all 16688 are not going to be dead did not vote etc. there will be a certain number of voters and that cashio voters could be protc and also proBJP >> and the trinimul would want to believe or perhaps on the face of it one would make an assumption since this is the victor and this this is a huge margin across 16 seats it's the DMC that's going to be more worried than the than the BJP who will smell opportunity well obviously the latter if it's a two horse fight now again here 57,455 Kolkata it's always been 110 the BJP has not been able to break to Kolkata. This the highest number of deletions average number of deletions across constituencies has been in Kolkata this time around >> and add to this the numbers that uh that Nin has put out that in Kolkata on these 11 constituencies the margins were narrow. If you add that there is a prepundonderance >> and it's mtab banji and abhishek ban >> that's why today I actually want to pull out that visual if we can bring out that visual of mtab banerjee first thing in the morning >> on the streets >> in a particular ward where actually the BJP has some vestigial support right she's out there it has never happened I've spoken to a large number of correspondents >> mixed crowd in bhabani which you know she probably took for granted in the early election.

[00:07:28]>> No, but this this this this is unprecedented because she used to show up remember at 4:00 in the evening in the afternoon she would rise late she would come out >> she's been out there at 8.

[00:07:38]>> So her neighbors have also said that we have never seen mabanerjee coming out like this uh the way she did today. You know we've not seen her even though some of them used to say that we vote for her because we know she lives in this area.

[00:07:50]Who will we vote for? Who will we go to if it's the BJP that we want to vote for? So that local factor is there but the point is that this booth level this uh you know minute granular uh support uh generation that the TMC does the BJP did not have on the ground in Kolkata.

[00:08:07]It didn't have even in rural areas but in the past 5 years it has built that carter and in in uh Bengal they fight it like a war. They fight that whole political battle like a war. So it's like going in you know and doing a kind of a mobilization of the crowd and doing a carpet bombing of voting that happens.

[00:08:25]I'm using a lot of war terminology for some absurd reason but uh but it seems to be like that you know otherwise how do you explain this uh 90% voter voter turnout that has happened in rural and urban Bengal you know the apathy that you see like Chetan was mentioning in urban Delhi or in urban uh you know in these uh these pockets of where the rich and mighty live even their people have come out stood in line and voted despite I earlier they used to say pressure you know uh of the goons etc but you didn't see any kind of pressure today despite what you were seeing some violent sporadic incidents through the