Weather forecasting involves analyzing multiple computer models (such as GFS and European models) to predict precipitation patterns, where forecasters track variables like moisture, pressure systems, and tropical development to provide accurate coverage percentages and timing for rain events, while also monitoring broader climate patterns like El Niño that influence seasonal weather trends.
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COFFEE TALK: Rain coverage doubles, as we track a very tropical pattern! Let's chat!Added:
Yes, the showers and the thunder showers will be with us. First off, this morning starting off fine. Today, a 30% coverage of showers and thunder showers. But I'll have you notice those rain chances really do go up this weekend. A 50% coverage of rain for our Saturday, 60% coverage of rain for Sunday, and even for Monday, we're going to keep that 50% coverage of rain around. So, it's not going to be a wash out. Don't want you to think that. However, it is going to be a weekend where we've got rain. So, what we can do is we can dial up our futurecast model and kind of get an idea of where that plays out. All right. And I'm going to start it this morning. We're looking fine. A couple of coastal showers.
Notice though, as early as about lunchtime today. And I'm going to take this and go right through the weekend so that you're as up to date as can be.
Right. So, we're good to go through lunchtime. A couple of areas of rain.
Watch how 2 3:00 and and keep in mind the coverage of rain here, okay? And I'm going to keep this through the weekend.
4 5:00 4 5 6:00 is when I think we're going to have the highest coverage of rain through the metro area. And then 6 7 8:00. That's a lower coverage than what we are about to see. So that's why today has the lowest rain coverage of the weekend. All right, let's continue on and let's get you to this weekend.
All right, nine o'clock on your Saturday, maybe a Bvard coastal shower, but look at lunchtime. Starting to see the rains develop, right?
2:00, 3, 4:00, widespread showers and thunder showers. 5 6 plenty of rain.
Seven, plenty of rain. 8 9:00 plenty of rain. So, obviously, this is going to be a much more active day for us. That's Saturday. Look at Sunday. Okay.
9:00 quiet. 10 11 12:00. Now we're starting to spark up those showers.
Right around lunchtime we've got the rains. Okay. Let's continue through. 1 2:00 rains. 3:00 widespread showers. 4 5:00 widespread showers. Even a few thunder showers. And if I'm, you know, if I'm not showing like the coastal areas, it's because obviously we've got most of the rains out west. Look at that. 637. Oh yeah, it's going to be a downpour. So over the next 3 days, okay, when we talk about the rainfall chances, let's just say over the next 3 days time, look at where we end up around Central Florida. A decent coverage of it'll be a half inch of rain or less, but it's not nothing. And I think that that's the main thing, right?
So, we we are looking very very good in the rainfall department. Um the overall coverage if we were to if we were to break down the 7-day forecast, and that's the magic, right, of of of our forecast is if we break it down. So, we'll start with our setup for Saturday.
overall rain coverage is going to be, you see the green along the east coast, that that just means that our coastal areas should have a basically a lower rain coverage. Okay, the areas that are going to see the best chance of seeing rainfall, that's going to be the metro off to the west. Okay, that's our Saturday. Let's look at our Sunday. 60% coverage of rain. Same kind of idea though, right? It's going to be the metro area off to the west. That's the areas that see the highest coverage of rainfall for us. Okay. And then for planning purposes for our Memorial Day Monday. Okay. We're looking at a decent coverage of afternoon showers and thunder showers.
Okay. So, that's kind of where we're at.
Questions, comments, concerns, you guys.
Good questions, anything before we've got tropics to talk. You know, there's there's there's plenty to discuss. Don't you worry about that. But before we get into the weeds, let's make sure we're doing good. Questions, comments, concerns. Want to make sure you're taken care of.
I see about six people on Instagram. So, good morning and thank you guys for hanging with me over there. Tell me what you think if there's any notes that you have. Um, Linda says, "Glad I'm coastal, so our weekend appears less rainy." For sure. Yeah.
It wants to start, you know, my boss even messaged. She was like, "Hey, we're going to go to the beach this weekend.
you know, should we go here versus there? And it's like, no, no, no. You're you're going to be fine. There's coastal showers that eventually work inland. So, you just kind of have to navigate that and you'll be good to go, right?
>> All right. So, questions? No, >> Meredith's uh allergies are just as good as the rest of ours.
All right. So, we had talked a little bit about this the other day and I want to certainly continue that. Right. So, let's let's just look out to the tropics. Okay. First off, yesterday I would be remiss if I didn't mentioned that the uh Noah hurricane season forecast came out. All right. And it's right in line with the Wes 2 forecast. I put out a video I think yesterday discussing this. Right. So, Wes on the left 9 to 13. Noah's 8 to 14.
Excuse me. Excuse me. Excuse you. Hey, Colorado State uh going with 13 name storms and and obviously hurricanes. So, we're all basically in the same register. We're all calling for a slightly above average season.
Perfect. Okay. Um obviously that's, you know, that's ideal.
But it only takes one storm. And I was talking to the, you know, I had an opportunity yesterday to speak with the American Red Cross, um their disaster action team. These are the volunteers, the men and women that actually go and respond. Okay. And what I thought was was pretty great was that, you know, we got into the weeds of the hurricane forecast. And for those of you that uh, you know, have followed me for a while, I do my long range forecasting.
And one thing that the historical tracks have shown, these are kind of the pathways historically that the past seasons following two week leninas going into an El Nino event, you know, these are kind of the pathways that we're going to be following I think this year um at least overarching. So, so definitely something to keep in mind, but out there right now there's there's no development expected, okay, over the next 7 days time. That said though, let's take a look at the GF. We're going to look at the computer models here, the raw models, and just check and see how we're doing. I am Tim says, "Post a new flyer about the Coffee Talkers group crews on the Coffee Talkers Facebook page." There you go. Very cool. Yeah, you guys, again, uh we'll bring we'll bring the uh the live feed in and we'll check in with everybody on on the trip.
You >> can can I just throw some props here for a second? There is a I was in need today and saucy mama came to the rescue. Thank you >> at your service.
>> You know why this is a thing? My queen, do you know why this is a thing? I forgot my protein shake at home.
>> And so I texted Nancy and I was like, "Listen, is there any way if I if if you fly, I buy." I beg I begged her.
>> I got a little fruit tray out of the deal. That's my little favorite Starbucks. She She says it's a weird breakfast. I don't think it's a weird breakfast. You got me my coffee. Thank you.
>> Made my day.
>> Hi everybody.
>> Made my day. Love her.
>> Anybody want to throw in some orders?
I'm always kidding. I can't go.
>> Yes. Yeah. Well, thank you. I owe you >> everybody, >> Nancy. Everybody, thank you. All right.
That first sip, you know, that first sip. Hold on a second. That first sip.
So good.
So good.
>> So good.
>> Those What are we Genie Roman? What are you talking about?
>> All right. I don't I don't know what that was. So anyway, all right. Uh what were we talking about?
Oh, we were getting into the tropics, right? Okay. All right. So, uh let's look at things. Okay. So, RAW GFS D where we're looking through time. We're looking through time.
I just the social media hype machine is just so funny. So funny. All right, so here's the last couple of days of May.
All right, right here we start to see some blue shading over Florida. Okay, the blue shading over Florida is interesting. And I'm just going to bring it as full screen as I can. The blue shading is interesting because basically what the model's showing is lowered pressure over Florida. And what that ends up doing is that ends up bringing us rain opportunities. So at the end of May, this is Thursday, May 28th, this is um 2 p.m. at basically what this is saying is our pattern is about to shift wetter depending on exact, right? I mean it's still a ways out. You know, you're looking at 156 hours out. Um, obviously sloppy low pressure is a good thing for us. What we don't want is anything too too strong, right? So, okay. All right.
Continuing on.
There's the 29th maybe developing a little low. Nothing strong, but trying to show and it's just a bunch of sloppy low pressure. Look at I love that low pressure. It's trying to develop again.
sloppy weak low crossing Cuba, getting over to the Bahamas, and then pulling away.
And look at that. Keeping a sloppy area of low pressure over us.
So, let's talk about this for a few seconds because I've seen I've seen some things. Okay, here. Let's talk just just just you and I.
First off, that's the GFS model. Well, we know that the GFS model at the beginning of hurricane season, I mean, it often times has a vorticity bias often times it's not great.
Low pressure is a good thing though because our drought deficit, our our our rainfall deficit, our drought numbers are significant.
So, this would be very good for us.
Okay, so that's the first thing. All right, let's go over and let's look at the European model.
I'm going to roll through time and high pressure. All right, so that's the very end of the 60. We have to go to the Z to go further. Now, it's kind of showing, and I showed this on my reel this morning, but it's showing something different, but the same idea around the end of May, sloppy, low pressure, and then kind of firing something up afterward. So, we're seeing kind of an indicator. Both models are showing something.
Okay. Now, a couple things to remember.
First off, I I'm not a hyper. However, I believe in giving you the information to understand what's happening. There are some people I I saw yesterday there was a person who does my job at another employer who was like pouting that we are as forthcoming as we are.
even referred to us as hype and I'm like to me there's a tone difference between here's the data and hyping but I'd also I'd argue you can get weather information online right of course you can but don't you want to have this discussion I would much rather show you the craziest crap and then be able to say it's not going to happen versus not show it and then you're like but why didn't we talk about it So that's my thing. So anyway, um, here we are. Some people are hypers, some people are uh complainers. I don't know.
I had to laugh. But either way, all right, we've got a three shot at the desk coming up. So anyway, >> I just wanted to we can get back to the tropics here in a couple minutes, but I just I had to say like, you know, I'm always going to go over data to show it to you to share it because at the end of the day, that's that's my job is to help. I'm not going to hype it. It's I have a conversation with my news folks all the time.
Got it. I have this conversation with my news folks all the time and it's like there's a the tone that we use is critical when it comes to tropical stuff. So >> or weather in general.
>> All right, stand by. There's a cross shot last night of it.
>> Let you guys see what they're doing before the arm in place. It wouldn't retract. not working problem. SpaceX says they are hoping to try for another launch tonight at 6:30. Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released their forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
>> And it's on par with our West forecast.
Noah said that they are forecasting a total of 8 to 14 named storms, three to six of which are forecast to become hurricanes, one to three major hurricanes reaching a status of a category three and above. And first morning meteorologist Eric Bur is here now. Erica, you put out a forecast each year as well, and I know that yours is kind of it's right on par, right?
>> Yeah, we put ours out March the 1st, though, you know, so uh that's one of those things that we look for is not just the storm names, but we also look at like hot spots for landfalls. So, we'll see how the season plays out. But one thing that I've got to tell you looking at the forecast is I like how all of us are together. This is a fairly easy seasonal forecast to do uh because we have this onset of an El Nino. Now this is kind of one idea um basically discussing the El Nino onset. This is the European strength of the we call it the Enzo essentially the El Nino Southern Oscillation. But uh you notice that the first few months it's into a weak to moderate but by about August, September, October we go to a strong very strong El Nino. So the expectation here is as we get to the peak of hurricane season the atmosphere will try to subdue development. But that said, early season, this is the American GFS model, and what I'm running is the water vapor. So, this is just moisture. But watch how late May we start to see more and more moisture moving into the area.
And then beyond that, a whole lot of tropical moisture lifting through. I'm not mentioning this to do any kind of hype. I'm mentioning this because there are two big signals here. First thing is that late May to early uh June, models are hinting at moisture bubbling up in the Caribbean. And while they're not talking about significant development, they're talking about a bunch of moisture for you and I right here in the sunshine state. And that's a really good thing. This is the drought monitor.
Okay, you see these reds, Dand the villages, Ocala, that is a extreme drought. And as a matter of fact, it's gotten worse in many areas than it was a month ago. So we need the rain. And if you look at the European model, the next five days time, we've got the light to dark green shades. That's a half inch to an inch, two inches of rain. That's through May the 27th. Watch the 28th and the 29th. Bada bing, bada boom. You're talking about the yellows and the oranges. So now it's 2, three, four, five inches of rain. So we're going to take 5 days worth of rain, put it into two. Again, just showing that our pattern is about to get wet next week, late week into the weekend. basically looks to be plenty of rainfall. So, let's enjoy that. Let's also enjoy this beautiful morning. Daytona Beach looking fantastic. Lakefront Park in OciOla County weather stem shot here, a few high thin clouds. And in downtown Orlando, it is just so pretty out. It's a gorgeous, gorgeous morning. First warning live radar showing plenty of showers off the shoreline. These aren't going to bother us too much, but just north of there, Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Kennedy Space Center, watching a little bit of rain working over toward Oakill, Edgewater, and Scotsmore. It's the upper 80s along the coast, lower 90s across the inland areas. Lunchtime today, we'll get a few showers kind of trying to pop on up and then we get some heavier rains around this afternoon. 3 4 5 6 p.m. I think is going to be the main timeline for it.
Then we look ahead to your Saturday. All right, we start off quiet by about lunchtime. We'll begin with the rains and then look at the overall coverage of rain. 5 pm widespread showers, heavy downpours through about 8 o'clock at night and then gradually tapering off afterward by about 11 12:00. Sunday, same idea. Futurecast showing showers around lunchtime and then going widespread four 5 6:00 torrential downpour. So essentially when we look at the data, the idea here is today a 30% coverage of rainfall, but this weekend 50 60% coverage. So we basically double the rain chances and we're going to stay nice and moist all the way through next week. That's a quick check of the forecast. Megan, problems on the roads in Marian.
>> All right, stand by.
>> All right.
Let's see here. Tim says, "Show us how to make the weather sausage." No. Well, that's it. So, I'm always going to do that. So, anyway, um if a um person who does my job at another company wants to uh have a conversation about it, we can have a conversation about it and that's okay. But at the end of the day, you do you. I'm going to do me and we do we.
Hype to me is a tone thing. There's danger in their truck. Okay, got it.
Anyway, all right.
Let's see here. Okay, finally sitting and can pay attention. Been in listening mode. Gotly volunteered to go to detention. Diane, you got to go to detention. I'm sorry to hear that. All right, I'm getting caught up with the comments and then I'll go back to the stuff pulling a Oh, making Yeah, I was teasing Tony. What are you gonna do? All right.
All right. Okay. Here we are. All right.
So, back to the models. So, I love this signal. You know, I love this idea that we're going to get some some moisture.
Could something develop tropically speaking? It's possible. Um, this type of a scenario, though, typically doesn't do anything wicked. Here's a look at the um ensembles.
Nothing crazy here. Nothing crazy here.
Uh, that's the What is that? That's the GFS ensembles. Let's look at the European ensembles.
switch from the 60Z to the zero Z the last full run.
So, we're starting there's some ensembles trying to do some stuff again. Not not anything wicked, but let's take let's go to Euro AI.
It's running the 6C. Let's go back to the zero Z.
Right. Yeah. Nothing crazy. That's the Euro AI. Let's come over here to the GFS AI. Basically, the AI GFS.
And again, it's it doesn't have anything crazy. Now, that said, let's look at some of the rainfall numbers. Let's go to raw GFS and let's look at preip. Let's come over here.
Florida. All right.
Definitely a wetter pattern. Definitely a wetter pattern. Right. That's the GFS.
Let's look at the Euro.
Not as wet, but that also only goes out 144. Let's continue beyond 144. There it is. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Lots of tropical moisture. Go over to the GFS ensemble.
Euro ensemble doesn't go out as far. Gotta go to the full Euro ensemble. Yep. So there's there's there's some very clear signals here. Euro AI.
I mean, I like it.
Over the next, you know, 15 days time, four, five inches of rain. That would be great. GFS ensemble not as wet. All right.
So again, Gina Rowan says that just looks angry.
All that is is rainfall. Um but you know what it tells me is that there are decent opportunities for rain. And uh somebody had asked for this. So here you go. This is the drought monitor graphic.
We are desperate for rain. We we really need it. So, if we can get some rain here these next couple of days, couple of weeks, that's a great great great thing, right? All right. So, that's kind of where we're at, my friends. Um, questions, comments, concerns. What are you guys thinking?
>> What are you guys thinking? Anything good? John's asking us that sloppy low around June 1st. Yeah, that I believe that that's going to be the Melissa part of the pattern. Yeah, I think so.
questions, comments, concerns. Darianne says, "It does look promis." It does look promising. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.
>> I had no idea red was rainfall. I thought green was Well, that's this is rainfall accumulation. Ah, Debbiey's asking question. It's the day of compet.
>> Yep.
Now, John brings up that that sloppy low is the Melissa part of the pattern.
What's particularly interesting about it is if you follow it. So, if you follow our long range forecasting, you know, like the idea of what goes around comes around. So, look at the pathway that the GFS is showing this thing going >> near Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas. I mean, that that's the Melissa part of the pattern. And it's not identical. No, but it it's trying to show it.
Doing the Melissa motion, if you will.
So, I I just think that that's that's kind of crazy when you think about it.
But that's just me. Yep. All right. The ghosted woman staying busy. Oh my goodness gracious. That is a busy busy busy person.
All right.
Simentio says, "My allergies are all over the place." Dude, me too. It's not fun.
All right. Any other questions, comments, concerns?
>> Yes, Janice, it's it's we've got the iced coffee.
>> So, we'll be tracking. Um, no big worries here, though. How many days Marty's asking in this year's cycle? It looks like it's about a 73 day cycle.
So, yeah.
>> All right. Questions, comments, concern.
Are you guys ready for the weekend? So Stacia on Instagram is asking why is it called the Melissa part of the pattern?
So when I do long range forecasting, one of the ideas is what goes around comes around and as such you kind of watch recycling parts of a weather pattern.
And this is the part of the weather pattern that was led by Melissa which was that hurricane back in October. So that's why.
>> All right.
>> All right. Let's do this one. Let's do this hit.
I just I want to make sure you got all the answers. I want to make sure you got them all.
>> I need to hit the correct hit here.
>> Yes. So, what we want is good weather.
What we've got is good weather to summer standards. Right. Starting this morning with a mix of clouds and sunshine.
Little bit of rain off the shoreline coming into Bvard County. Otherwise, the metro is nice and quiet. So, for today, it's a 30% coverage of showers and thunderh showers. Notice though, our Saturday, Sunday, we double that rain coverage, getting to a 60% chance. We're going to keep those storms around with us. Healthy opportunity through next week.
>> All right, people stand by.
>> Gonna get this next hit loaded.
Allan, what? Headlines are dead. Allan, you're back for more.
>> Let's go.
>> Stand by, people.
>> Just building this next hit.
>> Let's see here. Um, >> oh, that's too funny, Keith. I appreciate it. Hey, you know, I'm not I'm not I'm not here for I'm I'm not here to ruffle any feathers, bud, but I appreciate it.
>> So, anyway, uh Stacy on Instagram, I hope that that answers your question as to why it's called the Melissa part of the weather pattern. All right, let's do Lori's asking, "Does the BSR correlate with the current operational pattern?"
Let's look at that after this hits.
Standby.
Many people thanks for joining us on your Friday.
>> Great to have you with us. Let's check in right now.
Looks nice right now.
>> It's true. Today we start off with the sunshine, a few showers in Bvard, but we'll get into the thunder showers.
Lunchtime 20% coverage of rain mainly along the I95 corridor. 3 4 5 6 p.m. 30% coverage of storms. But what's interesting for planning purposes, we're doubling this. We're going to a 60% coverage of rain looking ahead to the weekend. So be ready for it. It's beautiful. Beautiful though for now.
Port Canaveral. Can almost smell that salt air, right? Some rains off the shoreline. And I do have some rains that have been coming on in here around the Kennedy Space Center, Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, and eventually working over the Indian River Lagoon back over towards Scotsmore, Mims, Titusville, uh, and even Oakill and Edgewater. Temperatures out the door, upper 70s, mid70s in spots, it's the upper 80s to lower and mid 90s. And while yeah, we've got a few storms in the forecast today, we get more over the next few days. We are really getting into that summer's pattern. Megan will talk about it coming up in just a couple of minutes. But first, we've got to get out the door. How we looking?
>> Sylvia says, "Check your nose."
>> What do I need to check?
>> I know what it is. I know it's stuffed.
>> All right.
Okay. So, you guys want the BSR? You guys are a PIA.
Give me a second. I'll find it. Let's not find it. I just have to build it real quick. I just need to get this over to the >> to the weather computer. I I'll do it.
One of these days I'm going to do it.
Okay. Remind me later set. Oh jeez, it's already set. So if I hit that, I hit that and I hit that and then I hit stop and then Okay. All right. Do that.
Oh, sugar. I need to hit that button.
Start virtual camera.
See, this isn't this isn't like made for TV. You know what I'm saying? Like like this is not what you'd call the professional.
Boom. All right.
So, now we are looking. Now, this is for those of you that are new, this is referred to as the BSR, the bearing C rule, the bearing straight rule. Okay.
So, let's roll through time together here.
And I'm pulling up my calendar so I can do the math. All right. Roll through now. Right there. There's a little low.
That's What is that? That's That's June 2nd.
June 2nd 3rd. So that's isn't it wild when that happens, right? That's June 2nd. Some sort of a golf, right?
Some sort of a golf June 2nd. So that kind of lines up, doesn't it?
Crosses over. Okay.
And then there's another opportunity for a low >> around the fifth, sixth, seventh.
>> Okay.
>> And that's as far as that goes. Then we can switch over to the model.
>> Yeah, of course.
>> Oh gosh, Buddy's here. I've got to go say hi to buddy at some point here.
Hit that. Give it a sec. Got to reload the program. Yep. All right, you guys. Buddy Pitman's in the studio.
Okay, hold on. Do that and then come over here. I gota I had to restart the program. That's why that is.
All right, stand by.
>> All right, there we go.
That that going to be a non-tropical low more than likely.
High pressure. Oh, look at you. Look at you. You see that right there? Texas, Louisiana. When is that?
Around the 15th, 16th, 17th of June.
Somebody write 15, 16, 17th of June.
Maybe a little homegrown deal around Texas, Louisiana.
That's a Pacific deal there. But that's a Pacific storm. That would be around 20 21st 22nd Pacific Mexico. So, write that down.
Okay, somebody writing that down because I'm not going to, but but I I trust that you guys will.
All right.
>> Do the operational runs use BSR? No.
Nobody you the BSR is is is is a teleconnection. Nothing else. So no, nobody's using that operationally.
Nobody's using it operationally.
All right.
All right. Questions, comments, concerns about anything? So we looked ahead.
Somebody tell me in the comments.
Somebody tell me you wrote it down.
Cindy says, "You teach us how to make the sausage, then we're a PIA. This is your fault, Paris." Cindy, you're right.
But my love language is to tease, and I'm going to tease.
All right. Anything you guys good? Are we good? Questions, comments, concerns?
>> All right. That's all I've got. Listen, thank you guys for hanging out. All right. Karina wrote it down. Please remind me when we get there if anything plays out. Lori, of course, it's my pleasure. Absolutely. Listen, I love talking about the weather and I love sharing it with you guys and gals.
Somebody said I wasn't on TikTok today.
I'll have to go check that out. Am I usually I It shows that I usually transmit and I see the error today, but uh I've never gotten a comment, so I don't know. So anyway, all right, that's all I've got. Listen, be the sunshine in someone else's day. Thank you so much for hanging out for coffee talk. I will see you guys and gals uh tomorrow morning. Sound good? All right, take care everybody. Bye.
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