LIVE: West Asia Conflict Escalates: Oil Near $97, Markets Brace for Impact | Opening Bell

追加: 2026-06-03

[00:00:00]Heat. Heat.

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[00:01:08]Good morning. Hello and welcome. You're with us on opening bell. We're coming to you live on the money control YouTube telecast.

[00:01:14]We're right in the middle of the week.

[00:01:15]It's a Wednesday morning and the cues are still very confusing. In fact, if anything, the geopolitical headlines overnight are not very comforting. There has been exchange of fire between uh Iran and US forces. And because of all of that, oil prices have begun their uh climb or they've resumed their climb once again. Brent oil prices at 97 uh this morning. So that's obviously the biggest concern for us here in India.

[00:01:42]There you see 9698 on Brent and NX has been inching higher as well. Of course, there's still conflicting reports. The US president is still uh maintaining that talks are on. Iran says talks are off. So, it depends whom do you really want to believe. Bit of a confusing um geopolitical backdrop against which we start trade today. So, let's kick it off and get you the headlines.

[00:02:08]US military central command forces conduct self-defense strikes on Iran's Kisham Island and defeat multiple Iranian missiles and drones as regional allies Quua and Bahin report attacks. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says US will not lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for reopening the straight of hormones.

[00:02:32]Stocks on Wall Street closed Tuesday's trading session modestly higher as a risk appetite was driven by the AI fervor and it was counterbalanced by tensions arising from US and Iran uh and the fact that there's still no clarity on those talks for reopening the straight of hormones markets in Asia-Pacific trade mixed on account of the news flow coming out from West Asia. The Japanese Nikai hit a record high this morning, gains of over 1 and a half%. The gift nifty however is indicating a slightly lower start for Indian markets.

[00:03:08]Brent oil prices rise towards $97 per barrel, gaining for the third straight session as uncertainty surrounding the US and Iran nap stocks keep risk premium high in the oil market. Gold prices ease as stronger than expected US labor market data reinforces expectations that the Fed may keep interest rates elevated for an extended period.

[00:03:32]The Reserve Bank of India's 3-day monetary policy meeting begins today.

[00:03:35]The rate decision will be announced on the 5th of June, that is Friday.

[00:03:45]Okay. So, as we've been saying, I mean, the headlines are really, really confusing. Markets are taking note of the fact that this is not looking like it's going as per plan. The talks have yielded no results, and now you have military action in uh in West Asia. So, let me just put out the uh SenCom statement, the US Central Command. Uh and they went on to you know describe in detail what really transpired over the last you know 24 hours or so saying that US forces successfully defeated multiple Iranian ballistic missiles and drones and also conducted what they call are self-defense strikes uh on Iran in response to attacks. Now the claim is that Iran launched several ballistic missiles towards regional allies which include Kuwait and Baharin and all of this was intercepted either though those missiles didn't hit the target or they were intercepted by uh sendcom. So this is what it is. Uh this is where we are at now. While these strikes have happened, what is Mr. Trump saying? Mr. Trump is still saying that talks are on because Iran had earlier given an indication through its news agency that uh talks are off and that you know there's been no communication over the last 3 4 days. That Mr. Trump says is fake news. He says fake news reports that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the US have stopped speaking a few days ago. They're false and erroneous. He says conversations are still ongoing.

[00:05:01]And he says, "We spoke as far as 4 days ago, 3 days ago, 2 days ago, and one day ago, and today, but where they lead, one never knows." And then he goes on to say, "It's time one way or the other for you to make a deal. You've been doing this for 47 years. It cannot be allowed to go on any longer." So read between the lines. The fact is that we're none the wiser in terms of whether there is any deal indeed happening or not. Now coming to US market action. Yesterday for a change, it was not tech stocks. It was actually the Dow leading the gains.

[00:05:28]The Dow was up4%. Some of the tech stocks cooled off a little bit after the relentless rally that they've seen.

[00:05:34]Bonds and the dollar pretty much rain bound rangebound. Uh the US 10ear yield around the 4.45% mark. The dollar index is still very much above 99 and oil is the biggest watch point which as we told you is around $97 a barrel. Now for us yesterday it was a bit of a relief that the market managed to at least recover from the lows. We ended a 4-day losing streak. The Nifty managed a recovery above 23,500 but we're still in a range.

[00:05:58]Nothing is changing there. It's about a roughly about a you know 5600 point range that we've been in. FBI is again on the sell side yesterday. Sold off cash stocks worth about 8,300 odd crores. Now the monsoon progress is something that's going to be keenly awaited. I can report here that in Mumbai we've seen the first hint of pre-monsoon showers. So that was a welcome relief. So how the monsoon progresses is something the market will watch uh you know very keenly and of course the RBI policy come Friday. So that's the backdrop for this Wednesday morning. And now we have our market experts joining in. We have Gorang Sha from Jojit Financial with us and Jatin Gera of Ti Mandi. Gentlemen, good morning and happy Wednesday to both of you.

[00:06:37]>> Welcome.

[00:06:38]>> We don't know which way this war is going. One side says uh the talks are off, other side says no no we're still talking. So it's as hazy as ever. But the fact Gorang is that oil is again climbing and the worries are very much on for for us here in India. Right.

[00:06:52]Perhaps that explains the market range.

[00:06:55]Well, thank you so much uh Suri for inviting me on this show. Good morning to you and to all your viewers. Uh uh small disclosure before we go further. All recommendations that I'll be sharing with you this morning on the show Suri are part of our fundamental research team recommendation from a long-term point of view. Our company Jujit or myself, we do not have any kind of personal investments, no financial interest, no conflict of interest, but we share similar investment ideas with our clients. they might have their investment in this. So honestly Surviv I don't think that even President Trump knows when this particular war is going to end and according to me uh the words that he uses that deal I mean a peace agreement for him is a deal and I think for him it's a big joke whatever he's doing in the Middle East uh from 28th of uh Feb 2026 because with the reason and the logic that this escalation started on 28th of Feb has taken various twists and turns and turns from the start of regime change to nuclear dust to god knows what and now you know the basic thing should be I feel the deal not going through is that lack of trust Iran does not trust America America does not trust Iran and in between there is a joker like Pakistan who's trying to negotiate peace or trying to deal uh in between to go towards the peace model.

[00:08:25]So yes, this things will continue to trouble us. Uh crude oil prices have always been India's economy, India's GDP growth rate, inflation is always sensitive to crude oil prices because of 80% plus dependence on our energy imports.

[00:08:41]Corporate earnings are done and dusted for the fourth quarter. To sum up, no negative is a good news, but we are concerned about the first quarter, second quarter earnings. In case if this geopolitical tension has to prolong for a little bit more longer, I think that will start impacting the earnings. And uh, of course, you know, inflation is also another thing that we need to worry about. Soon we'll be having credit policy. I believe it is on Friday.

[00:09:07]Correct me if I'm wrong, Suri. General view is that there will be a pause status quo. uh statements and commentary is something that we'll need to dissect read in between the lines try to find out the sense uh of the comments made by the honorable RBI governor and uh possibly this rangebound trade still is here to stay uh 23,200 22,800 on the lower side 23,500 to 23,800 possibly on the higher side. uh this is a a kind of an approximate range that I can talk about SUBI and within this you will have sector and stock specific moves coming through depending upon the news flows >> okay and indeed it is it is that mistrust and it's very clear and that mistrust doesn't change overnight and I don't think a deal can easily fix it but let's see uh Jatin what have you made of the market's moves I mean there's no clarity right one day you think we're breaking down below the range but uh then the range actually held. I mean we managed to hold above this 23,200 kind of zone and we're back at now 23,500. So it's it's really not going anywhere. How do you trade a market like this?

[00:10:23]>> Uh good morning first of all. Uh so yeah uh rightly pointed out yesterday we did open uh negative but however we managed to defend the uh May lows of uh 23 200 23 300 on the downside and witness a sharp uh intraday pullback. So my sense is that uh considering that uh the nifty has successfully defended its low in yesterday's trading session also we saw the India ws you know cooling off to sub 15.5 levels uh that gives me a sense that uh this slight negative opening or uh uh the soft opening that we are having on the nifty today morning I will be a buyer in this uh uh opening. Uh I am expecting a counter trend rally towards 23800 23850 on the upside. Uh yes there are a couple of negatives. Crude oil is one more big negative. However, what we see is that the FI short is around now single digit. So they are extremely short and I believe that some amount of counter trend rally is likely in the case of nifty. So I would be a buyer uh at an intraday dip of 23400 for a target of 23660 and 23800 on the upside.

[00:11:42]>> Jatin what about these IT stocks in a market that's so confusing I mean the way it has moved in just the last two three trading sessions Monday and Tuesday two days. So TCS yesterday was up 6 and a half%. It's a weekly gain is already 8%. Infosys's weekly gain and what what when I say weekly is just two trading sessions right? Right. So it's 10% on Infosys, 8% on TCS. HCL Techch is up 5%. So it's uh pretty gravitydefying sudden moves. Uh on the technical charts, is anything changing or is this just a flash in the pan?

[00:12:15]>> Yeah. So I'll be speaking about the Nifty IT index. So Nifty IT index on the monthly charts that is for the month of May formed an hammer pattern. So now this pattern is generally formed at the end of a fall and this indicates that buyers are you know interested at lower levels which are pulling the prices higher. On Friday or on Monday we had this breakout from that inverted head and shoulders pattern on the upside and yesterday we had the follow- through buying interest on the upside. So I would the trend for Nifty IT index uh has now changed. uh every dip is now a buying opportunity. The pattern targets uh is placed around 32,500 on the upside. So uh yes, this positive momentum in the nifty IT index and frontline medap all it are likely to trade with a positive bias over the next couple of weeks.

[00:13:12]>> Okay. All right. Uh Gorang, I want to get your sense on this sudden reversal in IT stocks as I think it all started with the US earnings when US companies like Dell, Snowflake, a bunch of others, Palanter when they all started coming out with good blockbuster numbers suddenly the market uh you know reversed but what do you make of this trend?

[00:13:33]>> So Suri we've discussed it earlier also and uh as a broker we've always been positive on it despite of the headwinds in the recent past and of course the present and the coming future.

[00:13:46]So one thing that I am convinced that IT sector does not give you the kind of returns that it gave you 5 10 15 years back. You need to scale down your expectation on return. Uh and the reason being the innovation uh the technological changes that are coming through uh AI etc etc. People thought that it's relevance is going to go into zero when AI and you know art other tools are going to come through like anthropic etc etc but the relevance is that you are going to need IT companies uh backup uh or assistance to proceed further as far as this technological changes are concerned. So we have coverage will be on all three parts small cap, midcap, large cap. Uh one it would be interesting to see uh companies finding themselves relevant to the changes and who are able to adapt to the changes and reinvent themselves.

[00:14:47]So it's not like anything and everything in the IT will make money for you. You need to be extremely stock specific and uh have a longest time horizon with a clear-cut understanding sur that uh innovation changes technological upgrades and newer products and platforms will bring in choppiness and volatility as and when we come to know about them in the future to come and that run it is going to be pretty sooner I mean it's going to be pretty fast than what it was earlier but uh extremely positive on the IT pack from a longest time right >> and uh what would your stock preference be Gorang uh large cap midcap what you know give us some names >> yeah so two two from each for the benefit of better understanding of the viewers uh starting from the base of the pyramid small cap uh positive on science limited kpit tech in the midcap universe uh score forge and persistent substance is something that we are positive on uh positive on all four large cap names.

[00:15:53]Uh but if I have to pick two then it would be TCS and uh HCL Tech.

[00:16:01]>> TCS and HCL Tech. Okay. All right. So a couple of IT ideas coming in from Gorang this morning. All right, gentlemen. Um we have to also go through some of the stocks and news. Actually not too much news flow today. Uh but there are two or three companies that are worth kind of calling out. So let me today uh run through today's list. So we are starting up with Adani Ports. Sadani ports came out with its volume update. Uh so the cargo volume is up uh 15%. This is the monthly update, the May update that came out. The logistics rail volumes are down 19% but the cargo volumes are up 15%. So that's Adani port. Canada bank is looking at uh some fundraising 8,500 crores. That's what they're looking at raising so far into the year. And uh this is 4,500 crores is going to be via the very controversial 81 bonds. We remember them from the Yes Bank episode.

[00:16:50]4,000 crores is going to be via tier 2 bonds. It's largely uh debt capital quasi debt capital that Canada bank is looking to raise. Uh then there is John Cochril the engineering company the global MNC. Now it's ARM here in India which is listed. It has bagged uh a pretty big order. It's a 1250 cr rupee order from JSW Vijay Nagar Metallics. uh this is for uh one of the uh the projects uh of JSW. Moving ahead then there's a small company uh Advet Energy Transitions. Uh the reason I picked this out is that because it signed uh an agreement with the Gujarat UA Vikas Negam for the development of uh the battery energy storage system projects and typically the market gets very excited the moment you start talking anything on renewables the moment you talk about uh you know battery uh energy storage. So this is one such project uh that this company has signed in. Let's see if the stock shows any momentum or move today. And uh lastly on the list would be Vanta. Now we all know about the uh in enforcement directorate proceedings that were taking place against the company. So there was a exchange notification. It you know clarified to the exchanges Vanta saying that the ED indeed did visit some of the offices of the company as well as of Hindustan Zinc and uh the company says that it is fully cooperating with the authorities. Beyond that uh there is no other material disclosure uh that they've made at least at this point in time. So those are some of the stocks in news. Uh Adani ports any interest here Goram.

[00:18:23]>> So happens to be one of the most uh center stage company as far as port logistics sector is concerned. Ruby uh huge capeex has been lined up and there's already a decent cape capac capacity that is in place in terms of handling uh and the government policy in terms of development developing new ports and seaways and u uh riverways for transportation uh saga malaparos I'm talking about which was announced some time back uh no specific speific comment since we don't have coverage but uh I think ports and uh container logistic companies are also looking uh quite attractive in terms of uh long-term performance to be >> okay all right Jin let me get your take on uh Adani ports just on the charts how is it looking and does it qualify for either a trade or an investment I mean would you recommend anything here >> yeah so Adani ports is one of the uh outperforming ing stocks uh during this phase and uh uh current levels are not the uh good levels to enter for a trade or for an investment perspective. I would suggest to wait for levels or a dip towards uh 1650 to 1630 on the downside. The stock has run up quite a bit in the last uh couple of months. So I'm expecting a cool off considering that uh the uh momentum indicators are showing a divergence. So price making a new high but the momentum indicator is not confirming. So uh I would not uh you know enter a enter into a fresh fresh trade at this point of time would wait for levels of 1630 to 1650 on the downside.

[00:20:13]>> Mhm. Okay. All right. Uh let me also reach out to everybody who's joining us on YouTube. So good morning to all the viewers out there who are with us. We've started getting some queries. Uh Naven morning to you as well. Shashank has a query on GMR airports for the short term. Just telling all our viewers that this is your window next couple of minutes. Send in your queries and also give us your time horizon. Very very important whether it's a short-term trade or an investment that you're looking at and I'll try and take some of these questions with our guests in the uh next couple of minutes. But before we get to those queries, just a word on auto stocks gentlemen because we've now seen the monthly sales and for a you know a lot of companies are still looking good. Marati for instance still looking very steady. some of the two-wheeler makers I mean they've had another decent month uh what is your read through Gorang of the auto OEMs uh which are the companies which you think are really showing traction and you know would you buy into anything a fresh soy uh again you know whatever we saw for the month gone by in terms of numbers uh encouraging and uh uh newer launches quite a few lined in the next two to three to four months.

[00:21:24]Uh acceptability is also gone up to a great extent as far as two wheeler, three-wheeler, four-wheeler, passenger vehicles or even commercial vehicles are concerned. eight odd trade agreements signed by India with various countries will open up a lot of opportunity for the auto sector as far as export is concerned and export actually if you go to C ruby over the last couple of months month on month have showed significant amount of improvement in terms of numbers moving upwards north so we have uh uh we have positive coverage across auto sector including OEM tire manufacturing companies battery manufacturing companies so whether it is two wheelers three-wheer, four-wheeler, passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, tractor, tractor stroke, agri farm equipment manufacturing companies or even as a matter of fact a pure EV player something like green techch which was up and running on Monday on fallback of decent set of numbers. Uh and my sense is that uh there could be a short-term negative sur because of deficit monsoon uh for the next 2 3 months but I don't think that's a big cause of concern.

[00:22:33]Okay. So uh so again your topics here would be uh an Electra. Anything else in the large cap arena?

[00:22:39]>> Yeah. Yeah. So I'll pick uh from each segment Suri two wheeler two wheelers three wheelers stroke passenger vehicle and then commercial vehicle and of course all is already discussed.

[00:22:51]>> So TVS motors from the two wheeler pack which is also into a little bit of uh you know three-wheer profile down south.

[00:22:58]uh in the four-wheeler uh if I have to pick amongst the three large players then uh Eminem would be the one uh pure commercial vehicle play in form of Ashoken which was under pressure uh since Monday and yesterday I think long-term great opportunity um escorts Kubota in form of farm tractor agree equipment player and as discussed pure EVP play in form of electric green Okay. Uh, got that point. Jin, what do you think? I mean, auto stocks, a lot of them have also cooled off from their recent highs. They've had a pretty good run. Uh, but most of them are, you know, well off their peak for sure. So, if someone wants to make a fresh investment now, would you recommend anything in auto, two wheeler, four-wheeler, anything?

[00:23:49]>> Yeah. See within the auto pack we like uh technically we like Tata Motors passenger vehicle that is TMPV. So pattern wise breaking out of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. Uh yesterday it did see some buying interest from the lower levels. The trend is well and truly positive for Tata Motors passenger vehicles. So our preferred pick among this auto pack would be TMPV. On the upside we are expecting levels of 420 425. on the upside. Uh one should place a stop loss at 375 for this uh trade.

[00:24:26]>> Okay. All right. Uh let's do one thing.

[00:24:30]Uh let's take a look at some of our viewer questions which we are getting right now. Uh so like I said Shashank has a question on GMR airports. Jatin, this one is going to be for you because he's looking at the short term uh short to medium-term he's saying. So whether it it makes sense short to medium-term GMR airports what's your thought?

[00:24:49]>> I see JMR airports post that uh bump up that we saw after the result announcement has cooled off. Uh now we believe that uh yesterday's high of around 99.15. So I would you know be a buyer only above 99.15 because overall this stock has been in a rangebound uh uh uh scenario and uh 93 on the downside and 100 102 on the upside is the broad range that we are trading in. So if for a short to medium-term I would suggest to only buy about 99.15 uh the immediate target would be around 102 104.

[00:25:30]Okay, JMR airports anything on the fundamentals you want to add? I don't know Gorang Amin whether uh this stock is under your coverage GMR airports.

[00:25:39]So Suri uh my sense is and of course you know there has been recent news flows about uh GMR and uh some authority locking horns over the last five to six years over certain issues but uh newer airports opening uh in Mumbai and of course you know the Java airport uh we have a positive coverage on the long side we have a buy coverage so targets close to about 120 approximately.

[00:26:09]Okay. All right. Got that. Uh we have a query coming in from Sunil. He's asking about HDFC Bank as a trade and he entered at 780. Let me just check HDFC Bank's closing price yesterday 7 uh oh pre-open pre-open just started 711 in pre-open right now. No no that's that seems to be a completely freak trade. It's closer to the uh 735 750 uh you know kind of level. Uh Jatin HDFC Bank short-term trade I don't know you think anyone can make money on it.

[00:26:44]>> Uh see yeah HDFC bank is closing uh is trading very close to its uh April low or the previous swing low of 73725.

[00:26:54]Uh so there is a case uh building up that uh the stock might just form an double bottom pattern and thereafter you know move up. So uh the pattern is not yet confirmed as of now but yes uh it's a good level uh to you know enter from a short uh term perspective. Uh 730 should be kept as a uh sorry 720 should be kept as a stop loss and on the upside the immediate targets that we are expecting is around uh 785 to 800 on the upside.

[00:27:29]>> Okay. Okay. So, there could be a short-term trade, a long trade on the upside on HDFC Bank. Got that. Uh, speaking of banks, there's one question coming in on Canada Bank. This is from our viewer Adve. Hi, Adve. He is saying, um, I'm looking at a long-term perspective, minimum two years. So, does Canada bank make sense? Gorang, what do you think? PSU banks have had such a good run, right? But then they started cooling off after the SBI results and then now the whole rate trajectory is very confusing. Should one be considering PSU banks if they have a two-year perspective and then would you look at Canada?

[00:28:05]>> So banking and BF and the entire BS excuse me entire BFSI segments will be looks very attractive and I would go to the extent to say that if you are investing into equity market and if you happen to have a portfolio uh make BFSI segment as a core portfolio allocation uh uh amongst the other sectoral investments that you have. So we have positive coverage on PSU banks, private sector banks, strong NBFC. So speaking about PSU banks, uh positive on State Bank of India, Canada Bank, Bank of Bora, Bank of India and PNB.

[00:28:39]Uh the question is whether you should buy Canada Bank or whether there is any other alternative available uh in the PSU universe from a long-term point. So like I mentioned, yes, Canada bank is one. But you know, given the 2-year time horizon and the likely uh performance on earnings and delivery uh and rerating, I think State Bank of India would be the first choice. Having said that, we have positive coverage on Canada Bank and of course others, Bank of Boda, Bank of India, PNB, etc. The topic would be State Bank of India. But yeah, if you want to go for Canada Bank, you can definitely put that.

[00:29:16]>> Okay. So that's on Canada bank. I have one more bank question Gorang. This is uh on the u the nonPSU side. It's a question from Naven. He's saying what is the view on federal bank at current levels? And federal bank is such a case in point, right? The market can go sideways, the market can fall, but if you happen to be in the right stocks, then uh you are in your own market, right? Look at look at a one-year chart of Federal Bank. It it'll like make you feel like nothing's happened. What is this complaint people have that money has not been made? Federal bank in the last 12 months is up 80%. I mean so it's all about which you're in >> and then that defines your market experience right Gorang >> exactly and I'll give you two more examples defining law of gravity >> MTAR technologies and itachi >> I know uh markets can do whatever they have to do since um 28th of Feb 2026 but these two stocks along with some other names as well Supi have done quite well and if you happen to be in this then I think you will be laughing your way to the bank uh when you book profits and even have a you know peaceful sleep >> and have a lovely lunch and dinner and go to sleep. So that is what I'm trying to say sur that stock identification stock picking is something that you need to have after all you are putting in your hardearned money and savings into investments >> and not that there is guarantee of principle and profits and nothing is guaranteed in stock market everything is exposed to risk locally or globally. So uh answering your question on Federal Bank, yes we have a positive uh coverage on Federal Bank from a long-term point of view >> and my sense is that whatever has happened in terms of earnings over the last couple of quarters has actually related the stock and there would be opportunities for such small and midsize uh banks whether it is public or private or even NBFC strong NBFCs to perform and coexist together and complement each other.

[00:31:20]So the question Gorang is if uh if I have a 100 rupees to invest because you gave a couple of PSU ideas as well. If I want to invest those 100 rupees in bank stocks, how should I divide the money?

[00:31:30]Which ones?

[00:31:33]>> Well, so don't again you know there is no rocket science. Don't stretch your gray sales to the extent that they have to pop out. uh if you have 100 rupees put 50 rupees in PSU put 50 in uh private sector banks or maybe uh if I have to put in the third angle which I spoke about so uh strong NBFC's then do a 35 3530 kind of an approach uh and get into it and you have lots of choices >> okay uh I'll just have time to take maybe one or you know more questions though our viewers are u uh you know asking about any I'll try and quickly squeeze in uh and do a rapid fire on this one. So, Kissan uh Kiran sorry Kiran wants a view on Canes which obviously fell quite a bit uh after the results uh last month and there's a viewer who's asking about BSC as well.

[00:32:25]Let me quickly go to Kanes first. That's Kiran's question. Uh Jatin, how does it look on the charts first? Kane's Technologies given the correction you know technically what would you say?

[00:32:37]Uh yeah, the charts are a little weak uh uh because uh previous swing lows have been breached and there is no clear-cut uh sign of a trend reversal as of now.

[00:32:47]The chart is weak. Don't venture into buying at current market price.

[00:32:52]>> Okay. Would you be a contrarian on on canes gorang? I mean was this just one bad quarter or do you think that uh um then we talked about the valuation question as well, right?

[00:33:04]So the stock has corrected like uh as uh we've seen uh whether this is an opportunity for I mean first of all let me I mean we don't have specific coverage on canes tech but we have positive coverage on the sector and the sector is of course as we all know AMS PCBs chips semiconductors etc EMS so we like uh companies like u Amber enterprises we have coverage on CG power we have coverage on uh PG electroplast uh canes had an issue about a couple of months back and the management came and addressed that issue and did put out in the public domain and that was one of the reason why we saw the price correction uh it happens to be a strong performer uh uh remains to be seen how earnings are delivered uh but we are positive on the sector and there are three companies like I mentioned on which we have positive coverage and my feeling sur is that this sector is also going to be one of the sectors uh which can outperform on fall back of government policies PLI and possibility of India being self reliant dependent and opening up opportunities for exports >> an exact opposite contrast to the other stock that we were discussing federal bank federal bank you know is up 40% in one year can is down 45% in one year so it's all about what stocks you're in really that defines it and quick last question Jatin this one for you BSE uh fundamentally most people always like BSE but the question is on uh technicals entry point and whether it makes sense in the short term.

[00:34:39]>> Yeah. So BSC in the short term is likely to undergo some amount of correction. Uh the reason being it was trading in an upward sloping channel and that channel has been breached on the downside decisively. So I would I would you know expect the correction to continue towards uh 3,700 on the uh downside where we have a support in the form of a previous swing low. So uh good time to enter around 3,700 not at current levels.

[00:35:10]>> Okay. All right. Well with that let's quickly run through the pre-open session as well. Now things have settled down and it's about a quarter% of a decline.

[00:35:19]That's how the market is going to start off with 67 points lower. So giving off well about half of yesterday's gains.

[00:35:25]That's what we have. Midcap index is absolutely flat. Bank Nifty right now is down about.3%. So it's going to be a bit of a sluggish start. Still stuck in that range. Still not able to really have any kind of a decisive momentum or a move on the upside. That's the market's problem.

[00:35:41]Uh in terms of weak hands, uh watch out for IT stocks because the pre-open is indicating that a lot of the IT stocks will correct the gains that we were just discussing 910% on Infosys TCS. Maybe there'll be some profit taking there.

[00:35:53]That's the mood and that's what the expectation is. Look at the nifty IT index in the pre-open down almost 2%. So now Nifty losers, Infosys TCS, Tech Mahindra, ECL Techch of course Eternal could start about a percent lower. Some of the banks are sluggish. ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Access, all are down between half a percent to about 1% in the pre-open session. So, let's watch for this. Oil prices are rising. So, watch for names like Asian Paints could have a, you know, bit of a slow start.

[00:36:21]At least that's what the indications are as of now. Uh, on the upside, I can see some consumer stocks uh just before market opening in the pre-open. So I can see Trent up about a quarter%, TA consumer is up about half a percent, Nestle is up about half a percent. Uh Adani port is up 1% that May update that we were just discussing. So 1% up there as well. So uh and then there's Bharti AEL which is up about 1%. So these are the indications that we're picking up from the the pre-open session. By the way, beyond all these talks, I must point out uh John Cochril.

[00:36:55]Remember that contract that we were just uh you know uh outlining from JSW group uh contract of about 1,300 cr rupees that stock you can see in the pre-open 8% higher now on John Cochril. So looking quite interesting. Uh the other one is Concord Biotech. Uh that's also a stock in news this morning and uh it's uh up quite nicely. It's received a USFD approval for a uh for a drug that's used in transplants. Uh so we should look at this stock as well. Concord biotech 5 12% up because of a drug approval in the US market. So some interesting names over there. Okay gentlemen before we let you go to start your trading session.

[00:37:36]Final word of advice Jatin. Uh sum it up for us. Nifty, Bank Nifty or individual stocks? What's the trade for today?

[00:37:44]Yeah. So for Nifty, I believe that this soft opening should be used as a buying opportunity. We are expecting 23400 opening. It is opening around 23 416. So uh according to our levels only. So you should go long at current levels with a stop loss placed at 23360 on the upside. Immediate we are expecting 23660 on the upside. Uh our top trades for today uh would be one on the Tata Motors passenger vehicle. Uh the 2-day correction that we saw has been bought into we are expecting levels of 425 from a short-term perspective. So Tata Motors would be the preferred pick.

[00:38:28]Okay, Gorang, final word with you and also if I were to ask you a stock pick out of the earning season. One of the best ideas now that the season is over where you're convinced about uh you know uh earnings visibility growth ahead which stock would you have in mind?

[00:38:47]Well, so uh you know I would uh possibly uh put uh we discussed about autos uh Eminem to be looks very attractive from a long-term point of view. So again again as a disclosure we have a cost to cover Eminem.

[00:39:07]>> Okay. So Eminem would be Gorang's pick.

[00:39:10]Got that. Gentlemen, thank you very much for being with us and taking us through the pre-open session. have a fabulous Wednesday and we look forward to connecting again. Thank you.

[00:39:20]>> Thank you.

[00:39:20]>> Thank you.

[00:39:22]>> All right. Well, we have a couple of minutes before the market opens. So, let's take a look at some of the brokerage views of the morning. What are the brokers saying? What to buy, what to sell, what to avoid. Check out some of the interesting reports of the day and we'll be back with the market opening.

[00:40:34]Heat. Heat.

[00:41:20]All right. So, we have kicked off the day's proceedings with about a 50 point drop on the Nifty. 50 points, 60 points.

[00:41:27]Uh so a quarter% decline on the nifty the two on the bank nifty as well down about 2.3%. Midcap index is very flat.

[00:41:34]Sensex is down about.3% as well. So soft quiet opening for the time being.

[00:41:41]Advanced decline ratio uh right now it's favoring the advances both on the NSE and the BSE. On the NSE I can see about a thousand stocks advancing 654 declining. Uh BSE also more advances and declines for the time being. uh let's see how it plays out because you know yesterday told us that things can can really turn around. Yesterday we had a gap down opening but then things build up from there. So now let's see it'll all depend on that price of oil. If oil prices start climbing up we know which way our you know equity indices will be heading. So need to watch for that.

[00:42:09]Right now it's a half a percent decline.

[00:42:11]So let's see what's taking it lower. It is it like the pre-open session was indicating like I mentioned a lot of the IT stocks which have run up quite a bit in the last two sessions they are coming in for uh some profit taking now. So it seems it was more of a quick trade than a real decisive portfolio move building in IT. TCS is down 4%, Infosys is down 2 and a half%. HCL Techch is down 2%, Techmandra is down 2%. So that's a nifty IT index. The reason why the index is down 3% is because of Infosys. Let's show the individual stocks as well.

[00:42:39]Infosys is now looking at about a 2 and a half% cut. TCS is down 3 and a half%.

[00:42:44]So large cap it is falling big time. Uh basically it's uh you know undoing its gains. That's what it's doing uh at this point uh in the morning. Let's move on.

[00:42:56]Eternal, ITC, Vipro, Max Healthcare, Asian Paints. These are the other nifty losers that I can see out there. Asian Paints obviously uh the sentiment traoff is not very good with oil prices climbing again. Uh so the losers are now coming up. The index losers are on your screen. So beyond it, you can see Eternal there, there's ITC there. Uh Dr. Reddy's, Shiram Finance, you know, assortment of names really. uh max healthcare I mentioned Sun Pharma State Bank of India is down 1% actually let me look at other banks as well so SBI is lower access is lower KOTC is down all these banks are down about 1% uh the bank nifty is now down a full 8/10 of a percent and the nifty cut has suddenly deepened look at the nifty nifty is down uh 180 points so yeah now it's a little bit of a bigger fall uh financials and it both both the you know big pillars of the market are actually now leading to this decline uh and we're not seeing too much support right now from any other pocket. HQL, Marauti across the board declines pretty much coming through Bajash Finance, uh Eternal, all of these stocks are lower.

[00:44:00]So there is no Reliance is also lower.

[00:44:01]Reliance is down about 310 of a percent.

[00:44:03]The problem for the market is last two days at least it managed to hold it up.

[00:44:08]Even when the whole market was down, IT stocks were offering a lot of comfort and support and that's not the case this morning. it is in fact a counterweight on the downside and there's nothing really on the green side to lead the screen up. Uh Adani ports 1.2% up because of some of the positive brokerage commentary plus their May update. Apollo hospitals and Bharti are putting on about half a percent. Beyond that there's nothing on the screen. So now this classifies it as a weak start definitely a weak start. Those are your gainers and that's about it. Look at that. Five stocks positive. Everything else on the Nifty is uh negative at this point in time. Bank Nifty is uh you know really down quite a bit with all the large cap names on the losing side.

[00:44:46]Okay, let me see what's happening in um in midcaps, gainers and losers.

[00:44:52]Okay, so Seaman's Energy GE Verova TND these are some stocks that have started off on the um on the upside for the time being. NHPC is recovering. NHPC fell quite a bit yesterday because of that OFS the fear of more supply in the market. some recovery on NHBC today that Seammen's up about two two and a half%.

[00:45:11]Uh MTAR tech the stock that Gorang was referring to Mare Tech is uh you know had a very decent run up MTAR can you believe it in this year is up 200%. Uh that uh you know and today's gain is about 3 and a half% as well on Mtar Tech. Uh then some of the smaller names like Concord Bio because of that US FDA approval for a drug which is used in transplants. Uh so Concord Bio is managing a three three and a half% up move. So those are some of the gainers.

[00:45:36]Now let me look at some u midcap losers.

[00:45:40]It's actually a lot of IT, a lot of midcap it. Look at LTM LTI M tree. Look at persistent systems. Look at co-forge Memphis Tatalexi. All of midcap it. And you'll see those names there on your uh the midcap losers list. So it is really weak large cap as well as midcap. Uh then beyond this I can see names like Schneider Electric, Physics Walla, uh TBO Tech, plenty of other names on the weak side as well. But midcap it is really really taking it on the chin.

[00:46:07]KPIT 3 and a half% lower. Memphis is down about uh 4%, Co-Fforge down 4% as well and Persistent is down more than 4%. So yeah, that's pretty much how things are poised at this juncture. The midcap index is also now now feeling the heat. It's down6%. Nifty is down almost 200 points at this juncture. So tough morning of trade as of now at least.

[00:46:31]We'll see how it goes. TCS is down 5% by the way. Very quickly undoing the gain.

[00:46:36]Remember we started the show and I was talking about how TCS is up 8% in two two sessions. It's given up more than half of that gain in one shot. 5% lower on a big stock like TCS. Uh that's saying quite something. Let's pull up TCS if we can. We'll show a chart as well. Yeah, look at that. That's 5% decline coming in. Now show maybe a longerterm chart. Show a one-year chart maybe or a you know 2026 chart. uh after a long period of underperformance last two three sessions there was some sign of life in IT stocks but then again this morning all of that is getting challenged there you see that little tick right at the end that was the up move that we saw in the last two days but now it's anyone's guess which way this goes okay so that's the market for now 23,300 that's where the bulls are fighting trying to uh you know take uh or retain control of that level 23, uh 300 on the index as of now. Well, good time to bring in our next guest for some perspective on this market. We have Harshad uh Borabaki joining in who's head of research and fund manager at Mir Asset Mutual Fund. Harshad, great to have you with us on this program. Thank you so much for being with us on money control. So, you know, it's an it's an interesting market, very rangebound, trapped at an index level and the news flow is not helping, right? No clarity on when this war is ending. your opening thoughts.

[00:48:00]>> Sure. So I think uh it's largely to do as you know with the Middle East situation. So every day we are having you know uh different news flows. So to that extent I think it's obvious for market to react to the news flow uh rather than you know fundamentals in the near term. But having said that I think if you look at the fourth quarter results which we just completed I think they were quite decent numbers you know better than expected numbers which were reported. Obviously one knows that 1Q or first quarter FI27 could be margins could be under pressure because of energy prices but in the near term I think till the time we get clarity till the time there is a long-term sustainable resolution on the Middle East situation I think markets could you know markets will remain range bound >> Arshad what was your takeaway from the earning season Q4 I know a lot of the numbers were pretty decent because is the impact of the war has not translated through the system but in general just give us your top headlines from the fourth quarter and what it's making you think now so I think while at the headline level we are still in the singledigit growth if you talk from the nifty 50 numbers this was I think the eighth quarter of a singledigit growth but if you look at midcaps and small caps I think there was a descent good doubledigit growth I think what is happening is you know whatever government and RBI did in the last 18 months either with the tax cuts or with the you know GST rationalization a lot of liquidity pumped in the market apart from rate cuts. So we saw that you know third quarter and fourth quarter numbers were better you know consumption or demand was responding to various moves.

[00:49:42]So to that extent last two quarters numbers were much better than the earlier uh six quarters I think but for while fourth quarter should not be taken as you know the kind of trend which could happen in the near term because in the fourth quarter we didn't have the full impact of the energy prices but having said that I think if you look at basic sectors like uh financials or you know autos I think all large cap or large bigs I think are doing well there could be near-term disruption But I'm hoping that you know whatever government and RB has done that should sustain going forward. Also remember that there will be base effect. If you look at as I said you know six to eight quarters singledigit growth and after that at some point in time growth I think uh should come back. I think we are hopeful in the second half of this year maybe from the second quarter itself but again just to point out it all depends on you know when this middle conflict ends.

[00:50:40]H so uh Harsh for the full year I mean uh the universe of companies that you're uh you know you are invested in the Mai funds are invested in uh in general uh what is the lowering of earnings expectations that you have already factored in.

[00:50:59]So uh for our if you look at you know larger uh set of funds what we manage so we are looking uh anywhere between I would say 16 to 18% earnings growth but I think given that you know I am cognizant of you know first quarter I think we should settle somewhere between 15 to 17% or rather than you know 16 to 18 there could be a 1 to 2% uh downgrade in the numbers uh which could happen uh but I think this is in the context of you know if you look at last 18 to 20 months market has been sideways a lot of you know correction has happened so valuations have you know I would say uh become reasonable than what they were so on a one year forward basis if you look at nifty on a consensus number is at 18 and a half on a FY28 numbers it is at roughly 16 and a half 17 times so I think valuations are corrected from the top uh earnings yes they will rate by about 2% But I think this is a much better situation than what we have had in FY 25 or FI26. So for the last two years of singledigit growth, we are moving to the period of a double digit growth.

[00:52:12]Okay. So that's interesting. I mean uh 15 16% earnings growth uh that I think would be uh would be lapped up. Uh absolutely because we haven't seen that kind of growth in a in a long time. Uh so uh let's talk about how the funds are right now positioned. I'm talking about the diversified funds. So whether you look at the large and midcap fund or whether you look at the focused fund basically funds that can move across market capitalization or or you know flexiap what is uh what is the house bias right now? Uh are you more large cap oriented because in the focused fund for instance I'm seeing a lot of large cap names like Bharti and you know some of the banks like HDFC etc. uh as a house does m believe that the next couple of months will be more large capentric or are you liking midcaps more at this point?

[00:53:02]So I think I would not really go with the you know cap bias whether it's a large mid or small frankly uh it's outcome of a portfolio we don't really look at it that way for us it's more uh sector specific and stock specific so if I have to just you know talk from that perspective so if you look at our sectors which we like and are overweight across our funds uh is private financials or private banks consumer discretionary X of FMCG we are underweight at FMCG but consumer discretionary also which includes you know building materials, pharmaceuticals other sector you know which we had taken a contra call two years back and continue to uh remain overall weight on that smaller sectors like telecom. So these are what we like and has been overweight and it's across our funds. uh some sectors which we don't like are more you know global sectors uh like you know it or oil and gas for that matter where we are decisively underweight on that side.

[00:54:07]>> Interesting. So overweights would include private financials, consumer discretionary, building materials, pharma uh and telecom. Underweights would be uh staples, IT and oil and gas.

[00:54:18]Okay, noted that. Noted that. So within some of these trends, let's dive a little deeper into financials. Hershad, >> we're also running up to the all-important RBI policy.

[00:54:28]>> So the financial universe is a very large one, right? There's lending, there's non- lending, there could be capital markets, there are asset managers, there are insurance companies.

[00:54:35]So just run us through the thought process in terms of uh what you like more uh within financials um and you know within within the banks themselves where you're saying you like private uh financials more.

[00:54:49]So if you look at the current setup you know uh one you know we are we are into the double digit credit growth while there is a issue in terms of you know deposit growth the lagging credit growth but if I had to take a next 12 to 18 month view at some point in time we could see rate hikes so in that context I think banks are you know kind of better placed visa with NBFCs that's point number one why private banks I think one if you look at asset qualities at as pristine as one can get if you look valuations I think they are at minus one standard deviation. So I think there is not much to complain either on the valuation front, asset quality front and growth front. Yes, you know I mean the sector has not done well maybe because of different reasons would be you know fi selling different factors for that but I think on all the parameters and the valuation if I look at then private banks looks good within that. uh if you look at other NBFCs and all I think see NBFCs one cannot you know paint it in one brush because there are separate subsectors like you have housing finance you have vehicle finance you have multi-line you have micr finance so within that I think there is some you know good traction which is happening on the I would say low ticket housing finance companies micro finance seems to be you know slightly coming back gold has been doing well but on the NBFC side what we are doing is sticking to where we are comfortable on the valuation and on the asset quality. So NBFC is slightly varied than private banks. So that's one and on the insurance front I think again uh we are positive while there has been disruption in the last uh 6 to 9 or 12 months either because of regulatory or some GST uh changes but again we are quite positive on the capital markets we are very selective not much names in our portfolio one or two names where we think the bottom up makes sense are part of the portfolio and >> and why is that it's a it's a valuation issue is it on capital market stocks So I think yeah I mean obviously which we don't have is the valuation issue wherever we have we think the runway for uh growth is quite large. See unlike you know banks where uh they kind of will move in unison that's not the uh case with you know capital markets. So everybody has different cycle and profitability. So one cannot compare AMC's with wealth managers to exchanges different dynamics. So wherever as I said we have valuation comfort we are you know having those in the portfolio.

[00:57:21]>> Yeah. uh you know Hashand one thing uh that was missing in this list I mean in in the sectors that you described was this entire capital goods space and particularly capital goods companies that are catering to the power chain and we've seen these stocks go through the roof right many of them are large M andC companies with a strong India presence um and there's this whole narrative that was built right through the summer that and it was true it was not just narrative obviously peak demand and the need to move away from over reliance on oil as a source of energy to other forms of power.

[00:57:52]>> So I've heard a lot of this in the last 2 3 months.

[00:57:55]>> What's your sense on uh you know power producers, power equipment makers, that entire power transmission that entire chain uh and just you know the the growth aspect of it and also then the valuation aspect of the stocks.

[00:58:09]>> Sure. See I think on the growth outlook it's quite positive. I mean there is a runway for growth and we do see capex could continue for another uh 3 to four years but as such if you look at capital goods/ you know utilities as a space uh as a house we are slightly underweight on that it's not that we do have bottomup names where we are overweight versus you know their own benchmarks but as a at a overall sector level we are slightly underweight and primary reason is frankly you know valuation uh where we think uh you See what is happening in the last few months particularly is that execution is slightly sluggish while order book is sustaining but on the execution front things are slightly sluggish. In the near term uh there could be a margin headwinds which could come but at the whole sector level as a house we are underweight on those on this sector.

[00:59:06]>> Okay. All right. Uh so Harshad we've discussed a lot of sectors in a lot of detail. Now as we are winding up I want to pull back to the big picture you know for uh viewers who are watching today uh and many of those viewers would be your investors as well. What would you say and viewers have have had to keep their patience because even within a fund stocks can vary greatly. There could be one that's up you know 30 40% but there could be one down. It's been that kind of a polarized market right. So what kind of a market are we likely to be in for the rest of this year?

[00:59:39]See I think see noise will always be there you know either on the positive side or negative side. So while it's easy to say stay calm stay invested but I think the point is you know over the medium-term long-term it's all about earnings growth. So I think our thought process is you know we are coming from the low earnings growth moving towards slightly higher earnings growth. There is a disruption which has happened because of middle east. But as long as we are in the economy where see the point is now we are moving from a higher singledigit or slightly doubledigit nominal GDP growth to a decent you know 11 12% nominal GDP growth. So I think nominal GDP growth has moved higher.

[01:00:18]Earnings trajectory seems to be you know on the higher side. Government RBI has been quite supportive. So for now while as I said it's difficult but one should you know kind of ignore the noise which is happening on the global front India story I see I think it's quite strong maybe near-term there could be issues but over the next 3 to 5 years there is a liquidity as asset class I think there is a descent money you know which one can make here >> okay so stay invested and keep the faith that's the message finally harsh what about the Reserve Bank of India what are you expecting on Friday and more importantly if there is a rate hike maybe it doesn't come on Friday maybe it comes you know a month or two later but if there's a rate hike coming then what will that mean for the equity market is the is that hit already priced in or will it lead to a led >> so I think uh typically you know a higher the rate which means lower the multiples which one gives for equity but mind you uh the upcoming or expected rate cut in the near term which is happening is more uh because of you know the inflation which is a supply side issue and not really uh demand demand side demand side issue and I think red hack is also partly trying to address the fund flows you know into the country so I think I would not really give too I mean while it's important but I would not give too much importance to that I would focus rather on the earnings growth of the companies or the companies which have which are in part of my portfolio.

[01:01:56]>> Okay. So, not too concerned about the rate hike. Uh telling investors and our viewers to simply keep the faith and uh move beyond the noise. Good advice, Harshad. And we'll of course keep this in mind. Thank you very much for joining in. Hope to see you more often on Money Control and have a fantastic day.

[01:02:12]>> Sure. Thank you.

[01:02:15]>> Thank you.

[01:02:17]All right. Well, uh with that, uh we're almost out of time on this edition of the show. post. Let me do one thing quickly. Check the market. Markets are you dealing with the blows. 1% lower on all the key indices. Sensex, Nifty, Bank, Nifty, Midcap Index, all these four indices are down about 1%. Uh so this is a bit of a reversal uh from yesterday's chart. Yesterday we started with a gap down and then the market had started stabilizing around 10:00 and then it actually picked up. Now this is a reversal. We started uh on the flat line and now there's some pressure that's building up. Let's see. It's all about oil prices. We know that. We are well aware of that. I want to actually flash up the nifty losers. The way these IT stocks are correcting, that's just compounding the problem. It was it that was holding up the market last 2 days.

[01:03:04]Today it's leading it down. Look at that. 6% from TCS. 6% very quickly. Whatever was a little, you know, gain, it's it's very clear that it was a trading uh sort of action that was playing out. So that trading, you know, uh up move on it seems to have completely gone. In fact, now there's a severe profit taking that's going on on both large cap and on uh midcap it. So, watch out for these names. And then what's compounding the problem is financials. Financials are not holding up at all. SBI, Shriram Finance, uh you've got uh you know something like even a you know insurance uh play uh like HDFC Life, Bajach Finser, Vaj Finance, Access Bank, Geo Finance, every single financial stock on the nifty is on the downside. So that's just compounding the problem. And then you have other you know biggies like Reliance not helping, Lever not helping.

[01:03:53]All these stocks are also on the lower side of the screen. So bit of a tough morning. Let's see how it goes. Uh should do a check on the rupee as well.

[01:04:02]Uh the rupee also has a weakening bias today with this resumption in the oil price trajectory. Rupe is at 9564. So the currency has weakened by about 35 to 38 pes uh so far today. Yeah. 37 pes lower on the dollar rupee 9564 there. Uh that's how it's shaping up. The dollar index in any case has been elevated uh because of this uncertaintity around oil prices. Speaking of oil prices, let's do a check uh see where Brent is because that's the real culprit. Last time I saw Brent, it was around $97 a barrel. Let's see where it is now. Still around the same level, $96.90. Uh yeah, $96.90 to the barrel. Not looking all that comforting, at least for now. Well, let's see how the rest of the day builds up. But for the time being, it's a wrap on this edition of the show. Thanks for watching, and we'll keep getting you more updates on money control through the day.

[01:05:17]Heat. Heat.

[01:05:45]Heat. Heat.

[01:05:51]Heat. Heat.

[01:06:12]Heat. Heat. N.