Larry Johnson: Trump’s Iran Attack Plan Could Kill 147,000 – Shocking Warn

Ajouté : 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]There haven't been any ATOs issued yet.

[00:00:03]So, that's why I said all this notion that he is ready to attack yesterday that's complete nonsense. It's just a lie.

[00:00:09]They weren't ready to attack.

[00:00:12]The the the the the determinant, the one country that will determine whether or not the United States carries out a military strike is Saudi Arabia.

[00:00:24]That the downing of the F-15E fighter jet last month and the ground fire that struck an F-35 revealed that American flight tactics have become too predict The war has left a more hardened hardened resilient adversary.

[00:00:37]We've had 147,000 soldiers, sailors, and Marines kill themselves since the start of this global war on terror 25 years ago.

[00:00:50]That that number is bigger It's bigger than We only lost 110,000 Marines in World War II and the Pacific War.

[00:01:02]Pakistan deployed 8,000 troops and a squadron of fighter jets to Saudi Arabia.

[00:01:10]And I'm asking myself This is a squadron of 16 aircraft, mostly JF-17 fighters.

[00:01:23]And I'm asking myself Are these deployed to protect Saudi Arabia from the United States?

[00:01:35]Horseshit. The recession is already underway. Two guests who have spent combined decades inside US national security. Larry Johnson, CIA, and Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell.

[00:01:51]This week something specific happened.

[00:01:54]Trump reportedly ordered a strike. Iran tracked every plane in the air, shot down an F-15E, hit an F-35 with ground fire. The strike got called off.

[00:02:05]The real reason has nothing to do with diplomacy. It has to do with math. How many refueling runs does an F-35 need to reach Iran? And who controls those refueling aircraft? Larry Johnson answers that with the precision of someone who actually knows how these operations work.

[00:02:24]The answer tells you exactly who has the final say.

[00:02:28]There's also something else in this conversation I want you to hear. A personal story about a Navy Corpsman named Jamie, 43 years old, who took his own life on Sunday. And the number that goes with that story will stop you cold.

[00:02:44]Let's get into it.

[00:02:47]Let's start with why Trump pulled back, because the official story and the real story are completely different.

[00:02:53]There haven't been any ATOs issued yet.

[00:02:56]So, that's why I said that all this notion that he was ready to attack yesterday is that's complete nonsense.

[00:03:01]It's just a lie.

[00:03:03]Uh they weren't ready to attack.

[00:03:05]The the the the the determinant, the one country that will determine whether or not the United States carries out a military strike is Saudi Arabia.

[00:03:18]Saudi Arabia right now is hosting the KC-135 air refuelers. Uh they're based at Prince Sultan Air Base, uh just outside of Riyadh.

[00:03:28]And and why is that important?

[00:03:30]Well, most of the combat aircraft, the F-35s in particular, are based over in Jordan and Israel, is my understanding.

[00:03:42]So, uh they have a combat radius of 550 mi.

[00:03:48]Maybe if they got a light load, they can get 600 mi, but between 500 and 600 miles.

[00:03:55]Okay guys, look at your map. Ladies and gentlemen, look at your maps. Look at Al Mafraq where Muwaffaq Al-Salti Airbase is in Jordan, just outside of the capital.

[00:04:07]And then go over to Riyadh.

[00:04:12]That's over 800 miles.

[00:04:15]Okay, that means those planes are going to have to be refueled even before they get within 300 miles of Riyadh.

[00:04:24]And then from there they fly, you know, they finish the other 300 miles to Riyadh and they can just pass Riyadh.

[00:04:32]They could launch a Tomahawk or a JASSM missile into Iran.

[00:04:37]And then they've got to be immediately refueled.

[00:04:40]So, these planes to operate each F-35 is going to need at least probably minimum of four air refuelings just to stay in the air and just and be able to get back to the home base.

[00:04:54]Let's verify these claims. F-35A combat radius, Lockheed Martin specifies approximately 590 nautical miles on internal fuel. Johnson's 550-mile figure is conservative and accurate.

[00:05:09]Al Mafraq to Prince Sultan, Saudi Arabia, approximately 820 miles.

[00:05:15]Johnson's over 800 miles is correct.

[00:05:18]KC-135s at Prince Sultan, confirmed.

[00:05:21]Iran struck them directly. March 14, five KC-135s damaged. Mar- March 27, at least one destroyed per satellite imagery. The math, every strike mission depends on Saudi Arabia's tankers. If Saudi Arabia If Saudi Arabia says no, the planes cannot complete the mission.

[00:05:39]We saw 2 weeks ago when Trump announced object Project Freedom that was going to also use combat aircraft to almost so-called open up the straight.

[00:05:50]It got shut down within 36 hours cuz the Saudis said, "Nope, not using our space." Kuwaiti said, "Us, too. We're with them."

[00:05:59]And Trump gets on the phone with MBS, and MBS basically tells him to go pound sand.

[00:06:04]Operation Project Freedom verified.

[00:06:07]Launched on May 4th, 2026, paused within 36 hours. May 5th, after Saudi Arabia suspended US military access to Prince Sultan airbase and Saudi airspace. NBC News reported Saudi officials were blindsided by the announcement. A Trump MBS call failed to resolve the dispute.

[00:06:26]Welcome back to ARM Geopolitics. I'm Aaron Johnson. On this channel, we don't just cover the news. We cut through the noise, dominate the narrative, and give you the analysis mainstream media is too scared to run. Vigilance is our shield.

[00:06:38]Truth is our weapon. Let's get into it.

[00:06:42]And now the specific military picture.

[00:06:45]Because what The New York Times reported and what these two analysts say it means are very different things.

[00:06:53]They The official warned that the downing of the F-15E fighter jet last month and the ground fire that struck an F-35 revealed that American flight tactics had become too predictable in ways that allowed Iran to defend against them more capably. Perhaps most importantly, the US military official said that while 5 weeks of intensive bombing may have killed several Iranian leaders and commanders, the war has left a more hardened hardened resilient adversary.

[00:07:17]Well, this must be very embarrassing to an Air Force Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. I can only imagine.

[00:07:24]Um something I picked up on this morning. I think it's accurate.

[00:07:29]Uh and it it comes from a number of sources. One of them, Reuters.

[00:07:35]Yesterday, Pakistan deployed 8,000 troops and a squadron of fighter jets to Saudi Arabia.

[00:07:42]Two things to verify.

[00:07:44]F-15E shot down, confirmed. April 3rd, 2026, Iran shot down a US F-15E Strike Eagle over southwestern Iran. One crew member rescued, one missing.

[00:07:57]First confirmed loss of a manned US aircraft in Operation Epic Fury.

[00:08:03]F-35 hit by ground fire, also confirmed.

[00:08:06]March 19th, struck by enemy fire during a combat mission, it made emergency landing at a US base.

[00:08:18]Pakistan sent 8,000 troops to Saudi Arabia, confirmed. Reuters, May 18th and 19th, 2026. This includes 16 JF-17 fighters, Chinese HQ-9 air defender system, uh two drone squadrons, mutual defense pact, could expand to 80,000.

[00:08:38]Too predictable. Iran tracked US flight patterns, routes, timings, uh ingress paths.

[00:08:45]Accurate enough to shoot down an F-15E and clip of an F-35.

[00:08:51]The ATTOs were never issued because this mission was not operationally ready.

[00:08:58]And now the strategic picture because Johnson says Saudi Arabia, not Iran, not China, not Washington, holds the actual on-off switch for this war.

[00:09:08]Cuz the Saudis said, "Nope, not using our space." Kuwaiti said, "Us, too.

[00:09:13]We're with them."

[00:09:14]And Trump gets on the phone with MBS, and MBS basically tells him to go pound sand.

[00:09:20]So, I said, "We'll see where we stand right now."

[00:09:23]Um I do know that there are extensive efforts underway by the Chinese and the Russians in the terms of trying to erect this new security architecture in the Persian Gulf involving Turkey, the Saudis and Iran.

[00:09:39]>> [clears throat and cough] >> Uh I'm waiting to I've got I have a I have a a source who's able to provide information out of Pakistan uh from the from senior most senior levels. So the Pakistanis are very much in touch with both the Saudis and the Iranians. Particularly with the Saudis, they've got a they have a mutual defense pact with them.

[00:10:02]Uh so we'll get an idea if and if in fact if the Saudis say no, you're not using our territory, then Trump's Trump's options are really really limited at that point.

[00:10:15]That the Saudis the reality was in the initial strike on the 28th of February.

[00:10:21]They made the bet that the United States could deliver on its promise to protect them because well, that turned out to be Yeah. And as a result, Saudi Arabia suffered some fairly significant damage. They've been just taken out by drones. You know, they're leisurely flying along and then boom.

[00:10:41]Um so that was a bit of a wake-up call for the Saudis, which then as I mentioned earlier, we saw 2 weeks ago when they put the kibosh on Operation Project Freedom. So I think there's a reevaluation of the relationship with the United States underway right now.

[00:10:59]The United States offered protection money.

[00:11:02]They paid up. They bought US weapons.

[00:11:05]They bought US Treasury bills. They let the US come base troops there and bam.

[00:11:10]They get punched in the nose. They got a bloody nose and they're saying, wait a second. This wasn't supposed to happen.

[00:11:16]Johnson is making a specific argument.

[00:11:19]The countries that enabled this war can now end it. [clears throat] KC-135s at Prince Sultan. Iran struck them. March 14th, five damaged. March 27th, at least one destroyed per satellite imagery. Iran targeted the refueling infrastructure specifically.

[00:11:36]The Pakistan deployment, 8,000 troops plus Chinese HQ-9 air defense systems now in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is not deploying more US compatible defense.

[00:11:47]It's deploying Chinese air defense systems.

[00:11:51]Project Freedom paused within 36 hours because Saudi Arabia suspended US military access to Prince Sultan and Saudi airspace.

[00:12:00]NBC News confirmed Saudi officials were blindsided by the announcement.

[00:12:05]A Trump MBS call failed to resolve the dispute.

[00:12:09]Saudi Arabia paid the protection money.

[00:12:12]Got damaged anyway.

[00:12:14]Now, it's asking who actually protects them.

[00:12:19]And now, this is the part of the conversation that deserves the most attention and gets the least coverage.

[00:12:25]He is 43 years old and as I as I tell these guys, I say if if you're under 45, you're one of my kids. Anyway, so Tank and I were involved with this shooting event on Sunday and you know, we said goodbye to each other and I'm I'm in the car for like 5 minutes and all of a sudden my phone lights up and it's Tank.

[00:12:41]And he's crying.

[00:12:43]Cuz we just learned Jamie committed suicide on Sunday.

[00:12:47]Now, as I started looking into this, we've had 147,000 soldiers, sailors, and Marines kill themselves since the start of this global war on terror 25 years ago. Yeah. That That number is bigger it's bigger than we only lost 110,000 Marines in World War II in the Pacific War. Marines and and Army in the Pacific battles.

[00:13:18]Guadalcanal, Iwo Jima.

[00:13:21]We got We got more than that that have died from suicide. And the the deaths from suicide exceed those that have died since in Vietnam, in Iraq in two engagements, in Afghanistan, in Syria, in Somalia, you know, you go down the list, all the damn wars we fought since 1960 haven't even matched up to the total of these casualties. We continue This kind of thing that these people in political positions who issue these commands, they never pay the price.

[00:13:54]And that's just I mean, I am furious about it.

[00:13:57]The verified numbers. VA data released February 2026. More than 141,000 veterans died by suicide since 2001 through the 2023 data. Adding 2024 and 2025 at approximately 6,400 per year brings the total to Johnson's range.

[00:14:16]6,398 veteran suicides in 2023 alone. That's 17.5 Americans per day.

[00:14:23]The Pacific War comparison, USMC in action in the Pacific theater, approximately 87,000. Johnson's comparison holds. Jamie was 43, Navy Corpsman, Marine trained sniper. That's the cost that never comes up when the options are being weighed.

[00:14:41]And finally, the economic picture.

[00:14:43]Because Johnson's argument isn't that a recession is coming, it's that it's already here.

[00:14:48]The second tier, as I've called it, of targets that Iran has in its sites, if you will.

[00:14:55]And plenty of missiles to hit, fast ballistic missiles. They've been very good at coordinating the really modern high-velocity stuff with the low-velocity cheap stuff, drones primarily.

[00:15:09]And they can rip through the region hitting Ras Tanura, Zonia, Eunice, all those other places where it, as Larry just pointed out, it's absolutely critical for Saudi Arabia. I mean, you could take down 7 to 20% of their oil capacity and it would be down for months.

[00:15:30]Um when we did that in China in the petroleum disruption exercise, Ross Anouar for example at the time, which was much more productive then than it is now, but it was down for over 6 months.

[00:15:43]And you threw the Bab el Mandeb in there, that too, and the Houthis have already shown that they can close that for all practical purposes, which are the only ones that matter.

[00:15:53]So, we're looking at a real global problem unless Trump wakes up.

[00:16:02]We're dealing now with a 20% reduction that is not the can't just turn it around in a day. If if oil production returns somehow magically to what it was on February 27th, you'd still be looking to 6 to 8 weeks of shortages.

[00:16:20]And what's the price of oil doing? It's up a little bit.

[00:16:24]$110, $111. It's not accurately reflecting what should be out there.

[00:16:30]The number one.

[00:16:31]Then, the combination of these commodities that have been disrupted out of the Persian Gulf.

[00:16:38]When you look [snorts] at the combination of urea and sulfur, they are critical to for making fertilizer, critical.

[00:16:47]Helium, critical for computer chips.

[00:16:51]44% of the world's supply comes out of the Persian Gulf and is not coming out now.

[00:16:57]And and so, what are they saying? Oh, there's a possibility of a recession?

[00:17:04]We keep sitting around and deceiving ourselves. The pillars of the US hegemony, his control, his ability to be the economic leader of the world, has hinged on two things.

[00:17:16]One is the petrodollar that everybody's going to buy oil after use dollars.

[00:17:22]And the second is everybody's got the these foreign countries will buy our Treasury bills so we can continue to spend like a drunken sailor at a whorehouse in Manila.

[00:17:34]And instead what's actually going on? We're seeing that on the petrodollar front, China, Russia, Iran major either buyers or suppliers of oil, they're selling out in alternative currencies, particularly the yuan.

[00:17:51]So, if you're looking at it, the US market with petrodollars is shrinking.

[00:17:57]It's not increasing. And it's not staying steady. It is shrinking. Maybe it's not a shrinking very fast, but it's still contracting.

[00:18:06]How about US Treasuries? Ditto. The countries that used to buy, China, Japan, even Europe, they're now they're they're selling off their Treasuries.

[00:18:16]They're not buying any new Treasuries.

[00:18:19]And people say, "Well, this has happened in the past." Never in the past have you had the economy of the United States where it is dependent upon continuing to sell these Treasuries to other people cuz our debt is now approaching 40 trillion dollars. These are not happy notes for an economy that's oh, we're doing well. We're not doing well.

[00:18:45]Three claims. Let me verify each. 20% of oil supply disruption. EIA confirms approximately 21% of global petroleum liquids pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:18:57]Helium from the Persian Gulf. Qatar is the world's second largest helium producer.

[00:19:03]Petrodollar decline documented.

[00:19:06]China, Russia, Iran trading in yuan for oil.

[00:19:10]US debt around 39.2 trillion, verified.

[00:19:16]So, Johnson's verdict is that the recession is already underway. The data supports the direction.

[00:19:23]And finally, the question Johnson says will determine everything this week.

[00:19:28]Uh I think the the Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar, those those three right there can put a stop to this war if they refuse to go and continue cooperating with the United States, which will enrage, infuriate Trump.

[00:19:44]But, it puts the United States in the position of what else is he going to do?

[00:19:48]I mean, I know uh not through any classified information, just through the serendipity of having a neighbor uh friend of a one of my neighbors up the street. He he's a he's a pilot for private pilot. But, his son uh the I was talking to him the other day. I said, "Oh, man." He says, "My son is coming home next week uh from uh uh from uh the war in in the Middle East." I said, "Well, where is he where is he Where is he at?" He says, "Oh, he's he's uh stationed at Prince Sultan Air Base." I said, "What does he do?" He says, "He flies KC-135s."

[00:20:23]But, he's he's getting home next week cuz his his wife is having a child via C-section, so they got him out of there.

[00:20:31]And uh while the son has been circumspect with what he's told his father, the the essence of the message is, "Man, the this place is dangerous and it is not hospitable.

[00:20:46]Um so, uh if if the Saudis basically start shutting down the US air operations there, you're not going to have a continue with this war is going to be effectively forced uh into a a diplomatic track. And that's what I anticipate that, you know, Putin and Xi are going to be talking about in depth.

[00:21:09]They just released this in the name of God, the official X account of the Persian Gulf straight authority PGSA is now live.

[00:21:20]Follow us for real-time updates on the whole moves straight and all operations and the latest developments.

[00:21:27]>> [laughter] >> They wouldn't have done that probably without coordinating with both China and Russia. Yeah. So they they've got their deal going in the straight as if we weren't there.

[00:21:37]Yeah, I mean I mean both China and Russia have There are two pieces.

[00:21:43]The human piece, Johnson's neighbor son, Casey 135 pilot at Prince Sultan.

[00:21:49]Message home, this place is dangerous.

[00:21:51]That's a primary source from the exact airbase the refueling aircraft used.

[00:21:57]The ones Iran already struck twice.

[00:21:59]The institutional piece, Wilkerson reads the PGSA launched in real time. A new authority to manage the Strait of Hormuz appearing while this conversation is being recorded. Wilkerson's read, coordinated with China and Russia.

[00:22:14]Johnson's final words, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar can end this war by shutting down US air operations. If that happens, Trump has no substitute. He can't replace the Casey 135s overnight.

[00:22:27]He can't change the geography.

[00:22:30]This week is the watershed moment. If the Saudis play ball, the war continues.

[00:22:35]If the Saudis don't, the war may be forced to an end the United States is not happy with.

[00:22:42]Now let's get into what Johnson and Wilkerson are actually saying here because the mainstream media is completely missing the point.

[00:22:50]First off, that strike that everyone was talking about, it didn't get called off because of some magical diplomacy. It got called off because Iran literally shot down an F-15E and clipped an F-35.

[00:23:04]Our military looked at that and realized our tactics had become way too predictable.

[00:23:10]The actual attack orders were never even issued because the operation was never ready to go in the first place.

[00:23:18]On top of that, Saudi Arabia basically holds the master switch to this entire war. Think about the logistics.

[00:23:25]We've got tankers sitting at Prince Sultan airbase and F-35s based in Jordan with only a 550-mi combat radius.

[00:23:34]Every single mission requires Saudi airspace and Saudi refueling. And guess what? The Saudis have already blocked one operation. Plus, Pakistan just dropped 8,000 troops and Chinese air defense systems right into Saudi Arabia under a mutual defense pact. The port is shifting fast.

[00:23:54]But here's the real human cost that nobody talks about at those shiny Pentagon press conferences.

[00:24:02]Over 140,000 Americans have died by suicide since these post-9/11 war started. Look at Jamie, 43 years old, a Navy corpsman, a Marine trained sniper.

[00:24:14]He took his own life just this past Sunday.

[00:24:17]That is 17.5 Americans lost every single day.

[00:24:23]And it's a statistic that gets completely ignored.

[00:24:27]Then you've got the economy. If this blows up, we're looking at 20% of the global oil supply just vanishing.

[00:24:33]Helium, uranium, sulfur, it all comes from the Gulf and it's all getting disrupted. The petrodollar is losing its grip. People are selling off US Treasuries and our national debt is sitting at a massive $39.2 trillion.

[00:24:49]According to Johnson, the recession isn't coming, it's already here.

[00:24:53]So, here's the million-dollar question that Johnson says will decide everything this week. Is Saudi Arabia going to hold the line?

[00:25:01]If they hold firm, the war keeps grinding on. If they don't, the US is going to be forced to the negotiating table. A place Washington desperately does not want to be.

[00:25:13]As they put it, MBS basically told Trump to go pound sand.

[00:25:17]That is where the real leverage is right now.

[00:25:21]We need to talk about the absolute bottleneck in this war. And it isn't Iran. It's Saudi Arabia. Johnson is calling it right now. Whatever the Saudis do this week decides everything.

[00:25:33]So, here is the million-dollar question.

[00:25:36]If they shut down US air operations, what can Trump actually do? He has zero leverage here. He can't bomb them, he can't replace the tankers, and he can't change the geography of the region.

[00:25:48]So, are we looking at the ultimate off-ramp for a peace deal?

[00:25:53]Or is there another play here that we aren't seeing?

[00:25:57]Let's debate it in the comments, because this is what's actually happening behind closed doors.

[00:26:02]If you think people need to start questioning the mainstream narrative, do me a favor and share this video with someone. It won't hit the feed without all of you.

[00:26:13]This is ARM Geopolitics. I'm Aaron Johnson. Stay sharp, stay informed, and never stop questioning. I'll see you in the next one.