The Most Uncomfortable Crypto Trade of This Entire Cycle

[00:00:00]This Ethereum's at 4,000 in 2021 of October and you were like, we made it 10,000 next. There's confidence. People are buying when we're overbought and it's just like it seems so low risk. It feels low risk. And you know what? It's the opposite of the feeling. It's high risk. It's time to sell in these moments. And people aren't selling because they're following their feelings. Right now, we are at the exact inverse. And that is why I'm entering my own accumulation phase. This is Ethereum zoomed out on the weekly. I'm not buying Ethereum. I'm not in an accumulation mode of Ethereum, but I am entering my own accumulation mode for crypto right now. And it's what I want to talk about in this video to start on the Ethereum chart because this is what we're going to use as a road map. Not because this is the coin I'm accumulating, but this is the road map. I just want to start the video by saying in terms of where we are in this cycle, we're in here. We're in this mess. We're somewhere in the mess. I think towards the end of the mess and I think there's a bull market coming. And I know, especially right now, this will be something that a lot of people disagree with. I'll get a lot of stuff thrown my way. I understand. I don't care. I'm at the point of my crypto journey right now, I don't care about the noise that is out there right now. I care about the data that I see and preparing for what I think is going to happen. And I care about staying true to my content. And that is to say focus on the data as well as track my crypto journey. So I'm entering accumulation area and I realize maybe it's another month, maybe it's two months, maybe the four-ear cycle people are right and this extends into the end of the year. My accumulation process is based on all these circumstances and possibilities.

[00:01:42]But right now in terms of where I think we are, I think we are in an accumulation opportunity area for crypto. And I'm just going to be very upfront about that. I want to start the video before we get into kind of the technicals of this and I want to start here. I just saw this yesterday just because right now as I record the video, there's a sell-off across all markets.

[00:02:02]S&P is down. This was yesterday though and I just find it so interesting. I wanted to bring it up to you. JP Morgan, CEO Jamie Diamond says, "We're in a bull market. It's like a tsunami. A little tsunami."

[00:02:15]I don't know what it is. Every time I see a headline from from Jamie Diamond, it seems to me it is 100% orchestrated.

[00:02:24]If he says a bearish thing, prepare for something bullish. If he says a bullish thing, prepare for something bearish.

[00:02:29]It's not illegal to do it. I just It's such a common theme that I've seen. This was a headline from yesterday. And what do you know? Today over $1.4 trillion has been wiped out from the US stock market today as S&P 500 dumps one and a half%. So, that's traditional markets.

[00:02:47]There's a reset going on. We're going to look at the S&P 500 charts as it relates to even my accumulation process and where I think we are in the cycle. But the other thing going on in terms of crypto and probably notable since we're using Ethereum charts today, the Ethereum Foundation is changing shape, concluding a month-long process of reorganization as part of the implementation of the mandate and treasury management policy. In other words, Ethereum Foundation to lay off 20% of its staff. If you think that the charts on all the cryptos and just crypto in general just looks rough and tough, well, we are in typical bare market bottoming out, bare market lows territory. And what I mean by that is from a narrative perspective, a headline perspective, if you zoom out on crypto cycles, this is Bitcoin. When we get into these moments, right, of just capitulation and ugliness, the headlines are also right alongside just the price action looking terrible. And this is where we are right now, right? Ethereum Foundation laying off 20% of its staff.

[00:03:53]So, let's keep that in mind as we start going into these charts. But I want to talk about my my just my approach to accumulation because I'm going to try and document my approach here. This is Ethereum. I I started the video by saying we are in this mess somewhere back here. Interestingly enough, if you look at the COVID swing low and we're not in some black swan event, there's such a similarity on Ethereum structure right now without a black swan event.

[00:04:20]But Ethereum putting in this lower low right now on this price price chart. But what's interesting about it is that COVID dip happened 224 days after quantitative tightening ended last cycle. So I use quantitative tightening and the ending of quantitative tightening this cycle which was December 1st as one point as as one like foundation to my macro analysis, right?

[00:04:46]And we are just over 200 days post QT ending. And in terms of cycles, I really do use that in terms of crypto and crypto bare markets versus bull markets.

[00:04:58]Because if you wonder why Ethereum and cryptos and altcoins had such a tough cycle, it's because starting in June 2022, we had quantitative tightening.

[00:05:10]That's terrible for a lower valued asset class like crypto. That's what happened.

[00:05:16]It ended, right? So, what I've been anticipating is the postquantitative tightening normalization phase, a dip phase. It happened last cycle here, and I've just been waiting. And I know, and I've realized, I've said it for months, things could get worse with this dip, the quantitative postQT dip, but I've been waiting for this macro pivot, this macro reversal. You can see back here, it took time and a lot going on here.

[00:05:41]right now. It's taking time and there's a lot going on here, but I think we're at a pivot point. And again, I know I'm not going to get the most popular feedback right now, but I'm going to document this as I think we are in accumulation territory. And that's what I am beginning to do right now in terms of altcoins and I want to document that process. Going to Bitcoin, we get a sense of what it looks like for me and that is this.

[00:06:09]And this is just up in the air. I have no idea. And that's why my approach to accumulation is going to be very thin and spread out right now in this moment.

[00:06:18]If you look at a Bitcoin chart, if you go look at an Ethereum chart, and by the way, it's not Ethereum that I'm accumulating, but if you just look at crypto right now as I sit here today, I'm happy with my portfolio. Crypto could just go parabolic tomorrow and I would be like, "Okay, I was ready for that. I'm good. I'm happy with it." But now we're entering this territory where I'm just like it is a little uncomfortable, but I'm going to start accumulating and it will be spread out and thin. And the reason why is because I don't need to go all in right now.

[00:06:50]Like I'm not missing a boat if we go parabolic. But if you go to the Bitcoin chart, there is the potential where the bottom's not in. And I've talked about this in a recent video, but the bottom might be in in July, right? And maybe we're lower. All coins are lower.

[00:07:04]Bitcoin's in the 50s. That's a really interesting area for me. But I'm not going to sit here and be like boom. I'm just throwing at ton of accumulation right now today in crypto. This is it. I do want it to spread out in case the bottom's not in and we do just keep trickling down in case the four-ear cycle people are right. I do want to start uh spreading it out my accumulation in case it extends all the way to that area. And what that is is it's smaller buys, maybe uh a little bit more sporadic, spread out, thin, and it's very random. And I will I will track that in terms of coins that I'm doing this with. But going back to the Ethereum chart, if we look at the Ethereum chart, one thing I know is from a technical perspective, 2018 bottom, right? If you go back and look at this, the 2018 bottom, the moment of the bottom, the 2020 bottom, even just here, the postQT dip, that bounce, and then we go into the CO bottom, the 2022 bottom, all of these moments, it doesn't feel like the bottom. Do you know what I'm saying?

[00:08:09]Like, if you've been in any of those moments, you know what I'm talking about. It doesn't feel like the bottom in the moment. In fact, like in a moment like this where it was the true 2022 bottom, right? It didn't feel like it.

[00:08:21]It felt like actually we are it's over, dude. We're just going to keep going down and probably test maybe even like the COVID lows for for Ethereum back here. That's what it feels like right now. It feels like that here. Like, man, we're going to we're going to just continue balling. It feels like that.

[00:08:41]But that's the whole point. The feelings have nothing to do with anything because it has felt like that every time. even the tariff capitulation from a year ago in April 2025.

[00:08:51]But in fact, it was the opposite. And what I want to say here is that is one really big reason why I'm deciding to start accumulating right now in my own way with my own risk tolerance. And that's because that feeling is there in the markets. That sentiment is there.

[00:09:07]Even in my mind, it's that feeling is there. It's like, dude, this is never going to end. That's a signal. put a put us, you know, put aside all of the onchain data, the technical indicators.

[00:09:20]I'm going to show you another one in just a moment that's saying we are in kind of accumulation area. We're at low risk scores in terms of risk models for crypto. Put aside those things. It's just that feeling of this is high risk, right? This is high risk because this is just going to keep falling. And you know what the inverse is? It's when the markets are confident.

[00:09:44]It's when the engagement is insane. The energy is insane in the markets and you're in a moment like this. Ethereum's at 4,000 in 2021 of October and you are like, "We made it 10,000 next." There's confidence. People are buying when we're overbought and it's just like it seems so low risk. It feels low risk. And you know what the it's the opposite of the feeling. It's high risk. It's time to sell in these moments. And people aren't selling because they're following their feelings. Right now, we are at the exact inverse. And that is why I'm entering my own accumulation phase for different coins because the feeling is the inverse of a bull market top. It's the feeling of man, it's so high risk right now.

[00:10:31]It's just going to keep going. It's just never going to stop going down. That's the feeling in the markets. And so it's a very unpopular thing to go against that feeling even from a personal perspective. It's like uncomfortable and you're like what am I doing? Is this irresponsible? And I think the answer to that for me is it's only irresponsible if I'm if I'm putting in money that like I cannot afford to lose. Like you know what I'm saying? Like you're reorggaging your house to do it and that's it. You can't lose. Like this has to be the right decision. That's a very different game. That's a different story. What I'm saying is if you're managing your risk and accumulating, there's nothing wrong with that. If at the end of the day, if it does go to zero, you're fine, right? There's nothing wrong with that. And that's always been my approach to these markets. But I wanted to try and display for you here where we are. Because I've been in these environments where I do videos and I'm just I'm positive. I'm optimistic about the crypto space. In moments like this, whether it's 2019, I'm sure you could probably go find videos of me probably in 2018 at the lows. You could find videos of me where it's uncomfortable. It's probably unpopular. It looks like it's over. But you know what? You can go look back on those videos. They don't look as silly right now. Do you know what I'm saying?

[00:11:53]And I think that's where we are right now. Maybe Ethereum breaks down to $1,000. That's fine. My accumulation approach again will be spread out into this kind of scenario where it does just keep falling and dipping into the end of the year. Maybe the four-ear cycle people end up just getting it and that's fine. I don't care anymore. What I care is to make sure that I am locked in right now and I am positioned appropriately in the crypto markets. And so I'm just going to keep tracking all of my analysis with you. I continue to bring it back to the Ethereum chart or any crypto chart. And I do think we're in this post quantitative tightening normalization phase. It's a pivot point of the cycles. It happened last cycle after 2019. Quantitative tightening ended. We're in a very similar move.

[00:12:42]I've been talking about this exact thing all year. It's a pivot point in my opinion. We are at a macro reversal area and I am officially at this high fear, lowrisk environment in accumulation mode. So, I wanted to share it with you today. I hope you're doing well out there. It's red across the board. It is so not enjoyable. I'm with you on that.

[00:13:02]I really am. And I'm just going to keep plugging away uh in terms of my approach to crypto, creating this content, bringing you data that I see. And if you appreciate that, if you enjoy it, please hit that like button. It means a lot. If you're not a subscriber, subscribe. I will see you in the next video. God bless.