Accumulate Crypto

[00:00:00]Good morning, everyone. And it doesn't need to be a long video, does it really?

[00:00:03]It's This is your Bitcoin on a one-hourly. We crept up over the weekend. It's creeping, literally creeping to get rejected on death crosses and rejection back down and then another death cross.

[00:00:15]Yesterday, we sort of had a little just a little stretch, a little stretch higher. It was basically given to us from the S&P, which was doing a very similar kind of thing on a four-hourly or on a one-hourly, apart from it wasn't death crossed, it was golden crossed. Now, we've lost this on the on the S&P, but it's the same price, if you think about it, the same sort of price structure.

[00:00:39]You have to be be be boop.

[00:00:40]Poof, 3:00 dump. So, [snorts] what's happening to Bitcoin is what's happening to stocks. And what's happening to stocks? Well, to be honest with you, you have to zoom out a little bit further to see what's happening to stocks.

[00:00:56]Now, the problem is is that Bitcoin itself and crypto is in a bearish sort of downtrend with only resistances to count up to. Whereas, the S&P is sort of rallying in a bullish uptrend with only supports to buy the dip on.

[00:01:13]So, with every move down on the stocks, Bitcoin could easily just go down, break down lower.

[00:01:19]If if the S&P wants to come down to 7,000, which is absolutely possible, and and possible and probably even considered to be quite healthy for it to do it, we're going to see a fair bit more on Bitcoin and quite a bit more on altcoins.

[00:01:35]So, that's a 6% drop if we were to see the 7,000 get retested. It might get picked up a little higher than that. You got your 21 here, 7,160.

[00:01:45]You got 7,057.

[00:01:47]7 6,982.

[00:01:51]And then the 50 exponential down here at 6,840.

[00:01:56]The the weekly's got plenty of room to run here, so it would be nice to have a consolidation and let this cool off a little bit for that then to continue its rally up towards 8,000.

[00:02:06]But, if you move over to Bitcoin, you know, Bitcoin's not quite the same. So, Bitcoin's downtrending, downtrending, downtrending. The only sort of good thing about this downtrend is that we've actually hit and we still keep floating around the 200 simple moving average, which outside of the last bear market, which was obviously globally driven, um you know, we've seen supports and reaccumulations take place around there.

[00:02:28]So, there is that.

[00:02:30]But, every time is different. This time is different to this. This time is different to this. This time is different to this. And then there was really nothing going on before that, was there? So, we don't have a great deal more to go by. But, you know, from a uh from a statistical perspective, golden crosses, you know, which is what this actually is, you know, this is a golden cross, you know, that was formed all the way from from here, golden crosses do like to get retested. And actually, they do generally, you know, most of the time, as in like more likely than not, end up as being a base for uh the next uh the reaccumulation or even V-shape recovery. But, with June moving into July, um when we talked about the potential low being in as far as time is concerned based around the fractal, and we just used a fractal in the same way that you we used the fractal from the the low to the high, uh which was quite good in terms of timing. We were like 2 weeks off from a 3-year fractal. If we were to think about the same thing here, the low could be in, you know, anywhere between May, which obviously we've seen a new low since May, uh to as late as November, which is a little bit far away now. So, we could be going down, down, down, or we could be going sideways, sideways, sideways, or we could basically just say none of this is um uh means anything just cuz the last fractal um navigated the the top and quite well doesn't mean that this one's going to navigate the low equally as good.

[00:04:01]>> [snorts] >> Anyway, that is basically what we're looking at right now.

[00:04:07]Bitcoin with a chance of a bounce with a chance of a V-shape with a channel chance of an accumulation or the chance of a breakdown.

[00:04:15]Based on the daily, we're below all moving averages so it all favors further downside definitely. Remember, stocks are in control of this. 4-hourly below all moving averages facing down again favors further downside but again stocks are in control. Um 1-hourly, well, below all moving averages facing down.

[00:04:36]So, really and you can focus on the high term time frames in the terms of all right accumulation we can think about buying into a particular area. Yeah, this this general area.

[00:04:48]That is an area that we can think about buying in terms of price and time and then wait for what could be a bull market to emerge out of this something like that over time.

[00:05:02]That way you've only got the only problem you got is is time. You just got to have patience, you know?

[00:05:09]The last bear market I didn't buy 16,000. I bought 19,000 sold at 21 and then bought back at 21 after we retested the 21 sold at 100. Um so, that is that main swing. The time before that bought in 2019 around 4,000 didn't didn't buy the absolute low down here at 3,000 whatever. Didn't sell the absolute peak up here at 69,000. I sold around 54,000 on the way down. So, you know, big swings, you know, never buy in the low, never buy in the high, accumulating, never buy in the low, never sell in the high, you know, accumulating. I won't be buying the low.

[00:05:50]I won't be buying any Bitcoins anymore actually. I've got enough Bitcoins now, but you know, using Bitcoin as a guide for the market and then obviously I won't be selling the high wherever that will lead us to.

[00:06:00]So, educated guess would tell me that between now and November we accumulate and then probably this time next year we will be out of this area probably a fair bit actually and then in the in the years to come we will actually find our way to a new all-time high. It's an educated guess. It's speculative obviously. We we only have this to go by, but previously it's worked quite well.

[00:06:23]But it might not necessarily work this well this time.

[00:06:28]And again, using Bitcoin as an indicator for navigating the low for a crypto market is is usually the best way to do it. Although the last bull market was quite crap for the for most altcoins. I mean BNB worked out well, Solana worked out well. Not that I had too much of that at all. I've got quite a lot of BNB. Still do. XRP was okay, you know, generally it was okay, you know, so some things worked out okay, but actually for the most part it was pretty crap. Um but it's still a good guide. So, this is why I'm always saying if you got to buy an altcoin you might as well think about buying the up only charts the the charts that have with multiple years, maybe even multiple cycles at this point >> [clears throat] >> of price actions to go by.

[00:07:10]If you've got higher lows and higher highs over many years, it should be okay. It should.

[00:07:16]Or should I say that it's less likely to to not be okay.

[00:07:22]But yeah, it's likely to be boring. So, if I have nothing to say, I might even skip a few days of video because otherwise I'll be saying the same thing over and over and over again. This is going to be the most boring part of all of the market.

[00:07:33]This is where most people have lost their money or or don't want to commit money to the market, which is fine.

[00:07:39]And uh it's not where there's going to be any sort of amazing pumps in the market, which is not going to attract anybody to YouTube or anything like that anyway. Um so we're we are probably looking at several months of of sideways, maybe sideways and down, but certainly sideways.

[00:07:55]Until November at the latest, where we should start to actually emerge, you know, like the phoenix, and uh and actually establish an uptrend, which will go on for a several years.

[00:08:08]So there is a strategy there.

[00:08:10]Just takes time. That's what it takes.

[00:08:11]Just takes time.

[00:08:13]Um so yeah.

[00:08:14]There you have it. Boring, right? So we can look at all the altcoins as well, but you know, the the and we will. I mean, we're doing we do streams twice a week. We'll do one tomorrow night. Um but the problem with that is doesn't really matter what the altcoin looks like. There are some altcoins out there that we that we look at actually regularly. Um the the the are teasing us with certain setups. They all require a little bit lower to get the next major area of of support. I mean, XRP and Render actually, not that I'm highlighting anything for anybody to buy, and they're far away from their sort of big supports, for instance. But there are targets I'm thinking of where you might want to think about putting a limit order um and and sailing that one up. Cuz they are up on the charts, you know, our Render and XRP, for instance.

[00:09:07]They do exist. There's there's quite a few out there.

[00:09:10]But they're not at the safest level of support. Or should I say, if we're going to be waiting in this market between now and November, you know, there's quite quite a good possibility of seeing another 25% drop on an altcoin. So yeah, there are supports below. They're not right now. They but they they are there.

[00:09:28]And between now and November, maybe your limit order gets filled, maybe it doesn't, but a lot can happen. You know, we haven't really had a great deal of fud. We had the sailor thing, didn't we, recently? That was a little bit fuddy.

[00:09:38]Uh what we really need is a big fud. You know, someone Someone's got to go to jail or something like that, yeah. Uh so something big something big to fud the market. That'd be good.

[00:09:49]>> [snorts] >> Um cuz that a lot of the time that that that wipes the last little bit of hope out of the out of the market and with that last bit of hope washed away, actually generally comes alive. That's what happened with the FTX.

[00:10:03]That happens a lot of the time.

[00:10:05]Right, so I'll leave it there.

[00:10:06]Thanks for watching. Hope you have a nice day. Take it easy.

[00:10:10]Hope you have a nice day. Take it easy.