In international diplomacy, complex negotiations often involve interconnected issues where progress on one front depends on resolution of another, creating a 'linkage problem' that can stall or complicate peace agreements. The Iran peace deal negotiations illustrate this, where the US-Iran agreement is linked to Israeli actions in Lebanon, creating a situation where Israel's refusal to withdraw from Lebanese territory could jeopardize the entire deal, even if the US and Iran reach agreement on other terms.
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TRUMP: "WE'LL TAKE KHARG ISLAND" AS PEACE DEAL "NEARS" – w/ Geopolitics Expert Brandon Weichert
Added:very big publication. I'm working on a piece for I'm working for a piece for 363.
>> How are you?
>> I'm okay. I'm okay. I am uh I am just >> What's your reaction? Trump Trump just so posted the Islamabadou has never been closer pending its finalization.
>> Said that >> media should Yeah. Yeah. So you said that >> about 30 minutes ago.
>> The uh So Islamabadou has never been closer pending its finalization. The media should refrain from entering speculation about its content. In line with our responsible and transparent approach, all details will be shared with the public in due course. And 5 minutes ago, Trump reposted it as well.
>> Well, that's a change from about an hour ago when Trump said that they were uh what did he say? They were vile. They couldn't be trusted. There was a truth social.
>> I think so. Yeah, he's attacking them. I think this is all him trying to control the narrative. So, he says the >> I'm sure that's what it is. Yeah. The term that Iran leaked out to the fake news have nothing to do with the terms that we agreed to in writing. What which by the way this is concerning when I saw this what they said including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal bears they made no no statement by the way bears no ret relation to the truth.
>> Uh >> very dishonorable people to deal with.
With them there is no such thing as >> with them there is no such thing as dealing in good faith. Amazing. Also they totally rebuffed drone attack last night against the Indian ship leaving their home straight is totally unacceptable. So um yeah and then the Arachi made that statement Trump reposted it. What do you make of these developments? Are you getting more optimistic that we might have anou?
>> No. Uh I think even if we get even if we get anou again it's 60 days at best.
That's not what we need. We need an end to this thing now and it needs to be fully over, not paused. Uh, you know, remember we had um a magnificent pause uh between June of last year after we did the the pin prick strikes on those suspected Iranian nuclear sites that were supposedly obliterated, but I guess since we're still negotiating over them, they weren't. We had a pause though between then and um you know, February 28th. Um, so we if we're lucky, I guess we get as much 6 months maybe pause, but let's get real here. There's still no discussion about what does the end state look like for this conflict. How tell me how this ends was the famous refrain uh you know when General Petraeus was made commander of the Iraq war. Um, nobody can tell me how this ends because it still seems like the fundamental problems uh underlying the fight are still present. All right, there's really the nuclear weapons issue was never really the primary problem. That was always a problem. The primary problem is right now the straight of Hormuz, which they still have under the deal. They'll have up to 30 days to reopen um fully.
Now, they might start letting things here and there get through and that's good, but it's not a full reopening. And again, I have very serious doubts that Tyrron is just going to take their foot off the the gas pedal here. I think they're going to let let it bleed for another, you know, 30 days. They get the deal. Uh the other thing is I'm very disturbed by the fact that the president is not going to do the signing. This is apparently going to be if it's done at all. They're calling it the Islamabad uh accord or whatever, but it's being signed in Geneva, Switzerland, if it happens at all. Um that to me is bizarre. Vance is going to be doing it, not the president of the United States.
He's the one who supposedly negotiated this.
>> He's trying to he's trying to stay away from it because it's pretty bad for the US throwing JD under the bus.
>> Oh, exact. I believe me, I I know it. As somebody who's who who is a big supporter of JD Vance, I think he's being played like a fiddle. Um, if I, you know, I I I tried to give my opinion on this to certain people around him and they're not listening. This is the vice president is going to salute and do his duty. If it were me, I would have I would have told the president, I'm not going. Send Rubio. Uh, and Rubio is of course getting out scot-free, right?
Because this thing's going to go tits up. And uh at some point like it did remember what was it a month and a half ago or a month ago uh Vance flew to Pakistan and put on this big dog and pony show. Yeah, we're close to a deal.
And my understanding is they were very close to a deal. That Vance had actually done a very good job of negotiating and the Iranians were ready to to you know come meet him and and and finalize a deal. The Iranians were under the impression that they had a finalized deal in the offing and then Netanyahu called Vance and Trump and Vance leaves without a deal and you know so we I suspect the pattern here if we're just looking at pattern recognition. I'm very worried that this is how this is going to play out and we can't underestimate the ancillary factors to this whole dance. The ancillary factors are the economic and the the media perception.
What's going on right now? I mentioned this last night, the SpaceX IPO. And then you have this weekend the glorious UFC fight on the White House front front lawn on Sunday evening, Sunday, which is when they're supposed to be doing the signing ceremony supposedly for this deal. So I I can't put it past Trump to just say he's trying to do this to buy time to get through this weekend and then suddenly uh next week there's going to be some provocation and the whole thing reverts to norm which is a frozen conflict that's teetering on some massive regional calamity. Um I think I I I think that your audience is savvy. I think that I I can appreciate your optimism and I and I think more people should be optimistic, but I think they should be cautiously optimistic because we've been down this road before.
>> Um there's one one u one of the points on the deal includes a wild card and that's the Lebanon ceasefire because Israel has to abide by this. I was just speaking to the um to a Pakistani senator, former caretaker, prime minister of Pakistan about half an hour ago.
>> Who was it? Was it Mushaheen?
>> You need to stop asking me for names.
>> Sorry. Sorry. Yeah, I keep forgetting.
Anoir. Anoir.
>> Okay. All right. Sorry.
>> I'll ask the question on on the the Israeli issue and whether it is an issue and whether it is um whether he's concerned about it and he we were aligned on this um that Trump has more influence over Netanyahu than vice versa. That's what he believes. Now, maybe he's being hopeful. What's your stance on this? Do you think Trump will be able to reign in Netanyahu on Lebanon? You know, I love the >> that could jeopardize that would jeopardi jeopardize the deal after the you know, we can sign an MOU, but then implementation follows and that's where the worry is.
>> You know, I know that the US and Pakistan have a very complex relationship, but I've I've always loved the Pakistanis. They're very optimistic people. God bless them. Um, no, I I I don't believe that that Trump has the ability to rein in Netanyahu. Uh, I I think that at best Trump's going to and I he might be trying to do this now, but it isn't going to work. I don't think I think at best Trump is just going to separate from Netanyahu on this and craft his own deal and then say it's up to you Netanyahu to figure out what you're going to do. But the problem is the linkage problem, right? Iran has been clear from the beginning. Again, I hate having to say this cuz I'm not a fan of the Iranian regime, but they have been consistent in what they are calling for to get a deal done. And one of them is the linkage between the US negotiations with Iran to end the conflict with the Israeli provocations in uh southern Lebanon ostensibly against Iranian proxies in Hezbollah.
Although it it does seem like there's more going on than what meets the eye as there usually is. But the Iranians are >> I'll just put out a statement. J read that out.
>> Yeah, please. Because maybe I'm going to be proven wrong. Hopefully I am.
>> No, no, I don't think so. Um, Israel Israel will not withdraw from the security zone in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. The IDF will continue to defend our borders and our citizens of the peak of the Mount Hermmon, the mountains of Lebanon, the areas of our land and Samaria region, which is the West Bank, and most of the territory of Gaza against the threat posed by jihadist forces, blah blah blah. So, essentially, he just said he won't withdraw out of Lebanon. Now, we don't know whether theou with Iran includes a ceasefire in Lebanon or also includes Israel withdraw Israel withdrawing out of Lebanese territory. So that's where it gets uh >> I think we and that's a great point and I've been trying to figure that out. In fact, I did a post I said >> I don't think it will include withdrawal. I don't think it will.
>> I don't think I even well even if we said to the Iranians that we would we would want this the Israelis to do this.
The Israelis are not going to do it. The Israelis are not going to do it.
Remember the Netanyahu speech where he said that his entire it's it's imperative for Israeli prime ministers to tell the American president no. This is Netanyahu's view of the relationship.
He is the senior partner compared to Trump. And in some respects, just by dent of having been around longer in in politics and having dealt with the United States, you know, he's dealt with every president since I think Bill Clinton, maybe even earlier, um you know, he's he sort of has the same view of the American leadership that Putin does. Presidents come and go, but my interests remain the same. Um, so you know, unfortunately, I believe the Iranians have still got it in their head that there's a linkage here between what the US is negotiating for an end to the conflict with Israel standing down in southern Lebanon. I see no indication that Israel thinks this or that Israel will follow suit. The only thing, Mario, that would possibly do this, force the Israelis to step back, and the Trump administration is prednaturally incapable of doing this, as is Congress, as we're seeing with the NDAA and the Intelligence Authorization Act for next year. The only thing would be to listen to Joe Kent and actually tell the Israelis, we're cutting you off from these specific weapons systems. We're cutting you off from these intelligence sharing programs effective immediately until you start doing start aligning.
It's not going to happen. I know. But that's the only thing that would actually force the Israelis to slow down. And until that happens, we're going to be stuck in a pattern where we get these reprieves, but it's like I said before, I think I said it two times ago on your show, at best, we're getting a frozen conflict, which is bad still for the global economy.
>> Yeah. I this is where we start agreeing a lot more because I think theou um which I think we'll get that's anou and I think that's that's just delaying you know reaching long-term peace solving issues such as the bases in the region Iran's nuclear program primary secondary sanctions you know all of the sanctions and of course the Lebanon issue that's going to be a lot more complex and I wouldn't be surprised if um there's a ceasefire in Lebanon last three three months or so and then it's taken out of the deal and then we see Iran dealing with Israel separate from the US. Now the big question is if these guys get into a war again cuz now Iran is not shy from getting into war with Israel unlike the previous Iran. So if they do get into a war again what will the US do about it?
Will they stay out of it? Will Israel be willing to get into a war with Iran if the US is not there supporting them? So it's just it is uncharted territory moving forward. I the best and I'm just speculating here thinking that far ahead. The best case scenario for the US only would be is if we did in fact get theou we did in fact deescalate for 60 days maybe a little bit longer um and then the Iranians and the Israelis started duking it out but the Americans just said we're out. Uh that would be great. Wouldn't be great for Israel.
It's unfortunate for you know that part of the world which the whole that whole region would again be torn us under but from the American perspective and I am America first only um that was probably the best solution again given the connectivity between our elite and the Israeli elite given the shared worldviews between our elite and the Israeli elite I mean we've really embraced the Israeli security kind of paradigm um so I don't foresee that happening I think if if Iran really goes ham on Israel, which I think they're getting ready to do at some point. I think if they really do that, though, um the Americans will be sucked right back in uh to another Middle East war and we'll be back here in October or September, which is the worst time actually for that to happen. But I think that's the best case of this wholeou. So the prime minister of Pakistan just put out a statement. Amid the ongoing intense mediation efforts by Pakistan, we are fully aware of in uh incessant misinformation campaign being waged by those who want to sabotage the peace deal. I guess who they're talking about.
Guess who they're talking about? Setting aside the noise, we can confirm that a final agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached and Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps. peace has never been this close as it is now. So then the big question is what is part of >> God love him.
>> Oh god I I love him.
>> So the details of the deal. So according to the Iranians the deal has 14 points.
>> Um end of hostilities on all fronts.
>> Big big sticking one.
>> Non-interference US non-inference in Iran's internal affairs. Fine. Complete lifting of the naval blockade. We know US commitment to withdraw its forces from around Iran. Vague. I think this implies the for military buildup. I'm sure the bases are not going to be included in a onepage or a short reopening of the straight home under Iranian arrangements. That's what the uh is Iranian media said. So the big other question here is will Iran charge a fee because the Israeli said there is no fee. Suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products and derivatives and full access of Iran to its financial resources. Um, so that's sanctions on their on the oil and petrochemical products and derivatives.
That's something that I think will be included because the US lifted it already during the war from what I if I remember correctly.
>> The necessity of the US and its allies to present reconstruction plans uh or a $300 billion reconstruction plan. We've talked about it. That's they're talking about what you have to understand when there's an MOU, you fluff it up. No, I I know I Yeah, I know what an MOU is, but but >> I mean for the audience, I'm saying these things are all fluff like there's there's gonna be as you're saying before, there's going to be concrete things like who will control the shadow of hummus? Will the sanctions be lifted?
Will the war in Lebanon end? Then there's long-term things which is we will discuss this. You promised to do that and that's where the >> the aspirational issues, right? The aspirational, right? But let's just get clear here.
We haven't seen what we saw this morning what happened when the Iranians started posting stuff like this and Trump went postal saying that it's all fake news.
Okay. Um I think there might very well be a very serious misinterpretation of theou between the US side and the Iranian side already. Hope I'm wrong. But I will say also if the reality is closer or exactly what the Iranians are saying it is, this is a complete strategic defeat of the United States. We have been defeated and there needs to be a very serious accounting like a 9/11 style commission only you know more competent uh conducted within our government that will actually ask the hard questions of this administration. WTF happened.
Nobody's going to do that. Nobody's going to do that because we don't have a Congress anymore. And it's not even a political issue anymore because I can tell you what, whatever Democrat voters may be screaming about right now, the fact is the Democrat elite, the Schumers of the world, the older generation that's running the party, their opposition to this war has been very muted for a reason. Because secretly both they and the GOP agree on the need for this war. But there needs to be a very serious accounting here for what happened because this is one of the greatest humiliations of the US military power that I have seen probably well certainly since Afghanistan but maybe not even since the Vietnam withdrawal.
And nobody's asking the hard questions.
We don't have a Congress. We don't have a corporate press and certainly the military can't ask these questions because all these guys are their bosses.
So the other point here is um 60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement based on nuclear issues and the complete lifting of primary secondary US sanctions and UN council and IAA uh resolutions. That's to discuss. So the 60 days will be to discuss those difficult issues >> down by the way that's not >> that's where it gets really difficult.
Yeah. That's where it's a lot harder to be optimistic if it'll go back into like kind of status quo. This MOU is all we have, which is not a good case scenario, but seems like the only scenario right now. If it was that hard to reach a freaking MOU, imagine a long-term piece.
>> Remember, it took three years, and I'm not I was never I thought it was a bad deal, but it it took three years for the Obama administration to negotiate the the original JCPOA.
>> Uh, and that was with no pressure.
Well, there were certain things in there I thought were if you're really concerned about the nuclear arrangements, um there were certain sunset clauses in there like the there would have been sunset clauses by 2025 uh of the the original um uh deal that Obama forged. Now, the argument that I was told when I worked on the Hill from the Democrats was, well, they didn't put it this way, but the implication was that Hillary Clinton was going to win in 2016 and at some point in her term, she was going to renegotiate and they basically would keep going back and sort of tweaking the deal. But, of course, that never happened because, you know, Trump Trump came in and he shredded the whole thing.
And a lot of us were okay with that.
But, uh, looking back on, you know, Hindsight's 2020. Uh the fact that we're in this position now as opposed to where we thought we would be with Iran. Um the whole situation has been we're not getting a good deal here. We're we're we're getting a basically a glorified surrender document. And at this point, you know, if it gets America out of the Middle East, like militarily permanently, I'm we're going to have to, you know, take eat the crow here because we'll get something better in the long run. But until I see something better in the long run, this is a very, very disastrous outcome for the United States if Trump actually does this. If he doesn't do it, it's another disaster though because then we're right back to where we started. So, it's it's really a bad position to be in.
>> And number nine is reiteration of Iran's commitment under the NPT to not produce nuclear weapons, which has always been the case. Nothing new there.
>> Number 10, during the negotiations period, the US has committed not to add forces in the region and not impose new sanctions. Fine.
11 release of $24 billion of blocked funds during the 60 days with 12 billion made available at the start of the negotiations. Now JD Vance put out a statement not you know after this one a couple hours after this about half an hour ago as well saying that there won't be any funds released until Iran meets certain obligations. So I think what he means is out of the $24 billion half of it will be released instantly because Iran has to meet obligations instantly whatever those are like opening the straight home we'll see what the MOU is and then $12 billion was released I'm assuming as I've always said from the Qataris we'll see if that's the case number >> you're probably right about that I think it's probably going to come from >> yeah because it was a big sticking point we heard non-stop that it was a sticking point and then the Qataris were in Iran so that gives you an idea of why the Qataris were there >> it's also because this then starts to veer into congressional, you know, the Congress's area and Congress is never going to be okay with, well, I shouldn't say never, but I I have serious doubts that the current group running Congress would be completely okay with with releasing those funds. I know that the president has authority over this, but they there are certain things that they could do to to gum up the works. Um, although we've been paying the Taliban, what is it, $40 billion a month or something since we pulled out. So, you know, that's maybe maybe we'll be okay with it. I don't know, but it's it's not good. It's not a good look for America anyway you look at it.
>> Just checking the uh $4 billion a month in between 2021 2025.
The US provided $4 billion in assistance for Afghanistan.
Uh interesting. That's crazy if that's the case. Um yeah. All right. So last three points. Formation of a supervis supervisory mechanism to implement the agreement. Fine. The final agreement will be approved by the UN Security Council. Um and then last point is the final negotiations would not begin before the release of half of the blocked funds. So $12 billion suspension of Iran's oil sanctions and lifting of the naval blockade. Um and the final agreement will only cover the fate of enriched materials and and enrichment lifting of sanctions and Iran's economic reconstruction plans. So yeah, I think the next deal will be a lot harder and it'll take a long time and I think they'll be kicking the can down the road. the 60-day deal, thisou will be delayed and delayed and delayed indefinitely, similar to the last ceasefire while they have these negotiations. But these are going to be very difficult negotiations.
>> Yeah. And remember the last ceasefire that was a very uh tenuous ceasefire, shall we say. Uh and again, there's a third party in this whole thing that's not being really addressed, and that's Israel. And um the fact of the matter is is that the president, I don't believe, has any control over his junior partner.
Uh so we will be >> if you say that why is his junior partner not bombing Beirut? They'd love to bomb Beirut. They haven't.
>> Well look look it's they want they will >> it's a marathon. It's a marathon not a sprint. Okay they like Netanyahu understands perception. He understands how listen Netanyahu I think he was quoted in 2001 speaking he didn't know he was recorded to an Israeli family when he was campaigning and he basically said that you have to know how to manage the Americans and he's not wrong. you know, we're this big country with this massive amount of power, but I don't think people realize um how um I don't want to say tenuous, but basically how shortsighted and malleable the American political elite are, particularly when it comes to things like receiving money. uh remember we've legalized bribery in this country in the form of lobbying and uh Israel, China, Russia, Qatar, all these countries take advantage of that legalized bribery system and so it's very easy to manipulate and and and play the and plus Americans are care about the moment. We care about short-term things and other countries these ancient countries know that and they know how to play on that.
I'm seeing which other countries have a similar lobbying system as the US, Canada, UK, Australia, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, and the EU.
>> Interesting. Now, China does something China does something funny where they do it indirectly. It's very interesting how they do it. They will hire um you know, like they'll hire some well-known lobbying firm in the United States to kind of represent their interests and sort of get in there without without doing it directly. It's sort of this indirect thing. They don't really create an AP pack. Remember APAC was created.
It's its own entity. China's much more indirect uh in it. But they they have a lot of pull particularly through these multinational companies. So a lot of what'll happen is multinational companies in Washington will either have their own lobbying arm or they'll hire one of the big lobbying firms and they will work to protect their interests in China. Uh Eman called this reverse convergence. Uh basically the idea in the 90s and 80s when we opened up to China, when we went into China with business, the idea was called convergence where the United States would send its businesses and its capitalism into communist China. They'd all get fabulously rich and slowly converge with the West becoming purely capitalist, no more communist. Um Eman Fingleton in 2008 wrote a book called In the Jaws of the Dragon and he dubbed what he experienced as a trade representative for the United States in China in the 90s as reverse convergence.
American companies do go to China, they make a lot of money in China and then they want to protect their assets in China. So they flip and start using their leverage with Washington to start doing the bidding of Beijing. So it's a very interesting dynamic.
>> Interesting. We should do a whole episode on China. love to something going to pop up soon. We'll have >> Well, I don't know if you saw this. I'm working on a story right now, but 24 hours ago, CH uh Taiwan tested the new Himer. Um they received a cluster of of HIMYMRs and they tested it in western Taiwan and they aimed it. Now, obviously, it's very well outside the range of the weapon, but the the implication was clear. They shot the rockets directly at the direction of the mainland and uh the Chinese are now, you know, freaking out. But you know this is that's the that's another one the whole Indo-Pacific you know the whole world is watching what America does right now and if you are the one thing I will say I've never bought fully into the credibility argument um I think I think that's overstated but it is still something to consider if you are concerned about maintaining American alliances um you have to be worried about what Trump is doing with thisou and how that's going to have knock-on effects for American alliances. Now, personally, you know, I I just of the mind we need to pull back and focus on the Western Hemisphere in our own country. But if you are someone worried about the American alliance structure, regardless of whether theou goes forward or not, the fact is we look really bad. And Taiwan's looking at this. Japan's looking at this. This is why Japan has now loosened their export controls for the first time in 80 years on selling weapons. Uh, this is why Japan is very hawkish right now because they're freaking out in Tokyo and Taipei that the Americans aren't going to have their back. And by the way, I don't think we will. I don't think we will if China really decides to do something. We can't. We are. We are maxed out, Mario.
This dog won't hunt anymore.
>> Poor poor dog.
>> Yes.
>> It's a tired dog. It's a depleted dog.
>> Really? It was fighting a bear a few years ago for decades. Won that war. Now it's fighting a dragon. The dog's like, "What the hell? It's be a bear and now I have a dragon to deal with."
>> It's, you know, it's the meme. I'm tired, boss. You know. So, >> by the way, the UAE sent um transport aircraft to South Korea to pick up some of the air defenses they have there.
>> Yeah.
>> Now, you've seen that as well. I've been saying for a while the UAE is diversifying. A lot of people up in arms. UAE UAE Israel where the UAE is just I think doing what I've always thought it will do and being as neutral as possible. It can't be fully neutral.
>> I don't I don't think the UAE is neutral at all. But >> I had a had a delegation to Iran.
>> It's getting air defenses from Israel and South Korea. And I was just speaking to the Pakistani former PM, the caretaker PM, and he said that our relationship with the UAE is great.
>> No, no, the UAE is a is a it's a small country, but it's behaving as a hinge player. This is what hinge players do.
They play both sides against their middle and they try to get the best deal. That's what they have to do. But I would argue that they did get way too close to the US and Israel recently and now they've going to have to diversify because it's very obvious the American staying power in the region is no more.
>> Um, >> but I think they will diversify and I think >> No, I think they will too. No, I think they are.
>> They were close with the UAE even before the UAE. Sorry, with Iran. Iran used the UAE to avoid. I know. I know that. I know. But but like I said, they were always a hinge player. This is what they have to do because they're a tiny country uh in a very contested part of the world.
>> Now the big question is um I think what the discussion will be in a in a couple of weeks time obviously the negotiations for the deal but that would get very exhausting very quickly because it's just going to I hope this time and I think this time will go through a normal process. There won't be Trump making random posts every couple of days. After this, my prediction will be there'll be the MOU sign. Trump will ease up talking about Iran and a deal and all that and they'll go into proper negotiations for till me and you have grandkids. I think that's >> we'd all better hope that there's no rain at the UFC fight this weekend because uh I have a feeling if it gets rained out because that's what's supposed to happen supposedly. Rain is on the agenda for the night. Uh if it gets rained out, I have a feeling Trump's going to be in a very bad mood.
Trump will plan Trump will plan well Trump will blame Iran for seeding the cloud seeding big cloud >> rooting is UFC night >> let's see what happens I appreciate your analysis man as always yesterday is today and fingers crossed we'll probably jump back again soon to talk about >> what theou actually involves hopefully get the clarity we're all trying to figure out >> okay well until we meet again I'll talk to you later >> yes sir >> see you man bye >> bye >> um all right guys So, I've got the next interview in uh where is it?
All right, my calendar's glitched. Uh I think it's in an hour uh or an hour, an hour and a half. Let me see. Yeah, we have Safodine in half an hour. That was rescheduled. So, Twitter parsy in an hour and a half. I'll see you guys shortly. Bye.
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