Bad News

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]Hi, welcome back to the channel. In today's episode, I want to talk to you about what's going on in the war in Iran. Because over the weekend, it looked like we might be moving towards some form of ceasefire, or at least the framework for a deal. Donald Trump was talking up progress. The message coming out of Washington was that negotiations were moving in the right direction.

[00:00:21]Markets reacted as if the worst might be over. Oil prices started to ease and investors started to breathe again. But unfortunately, reality has now hit home.

[00:00:32]Because if this is what peace looks like, it's a very strange kind of peace.

[00:00:36]The United States has launched new strikes on Iranian targets. Iran says that it shot down a US drone. Iranian boats have reportedly been targeted whilst attempting to lay mines in the strait of Hermuz. Israel is continuing to intensify its strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon. and Iran's own language has become more threatening, not less. So, while the world is desperate for a ceasefire, the actual military situation appears to be moving in the opposite direction. And that matters because this is no longer just a regional war. This is a global economic event. Oil is still sitting at around about $100. We're now edging towards 80 days that it's been above $90. That is not a short-term spike. That's a sustained energy shock.

[00:01:25]And the longer this continues, the more it works its way into inflation, transport costs, food prices, shipping, manufacturing, government borrowing, consumer confidence, and ultimately economic growth. Now, before we get into the details of all of this, could I ask anybody that hasn't subscribed yet to please hit that subscriber button?

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[00:02:10]So if you haven't done it so far, now is a good time to have a look at it. Okay, so let's start up with what's actually happened. The key point here is that diplomacy and military action are actually taking place at the same time.

[00:02:22]US officials are continuing to suggest that a deal with Iran could be reached within days. Donald Trump has publicly been saying that negotiations are progressing well and that the agreement is close by. But at almost exactly the same time, the US military has carried out fresh strikes against Iranian linked targets in the Gulf region. According to reports, US aircraft and naval assets targeted Iranian fastboats and support vessels that were allegedly involved in laying naval mines close to the straight of Hermuz. And that's an important detail because laying mines near the straight is not a symbolic action. This is one of the most important energy choke points in the entire world. As we've discussed many times before, around 20% of global oil and gas passes through that narrow stretch of water on a normal day. Obviously, it's not happening at the moment, but if the straight was fully open, it would be around 20%. So, if Iran is even preparing the capability to disrupt traffic there, the implications are enormous. US surveillance assets have identified unusual Iranian naval activity after which the strikes were authorized. Some reports say that several vessels were damaged or destroyed, although exact numbers are still unclear because information coming out of conflict is usually quite fragmented. At the same time, Iran is now claiming that it shot down a US reconnaissance drone that was operating near Iranian airspace. Now, regardless of the exact technical details, this is direct military engagement. Whichever way you look at it, this is not two sides quietly deescalating. This is active confrontation from both sides.

[00:04:05]Iranian officials have also made a series of aggressive statements over the last 24 hours. Senior figures linked to the revolutionary guards have warned the US will no longer have secure positions or safe havens in the Gulf if attacks continue. So, the rhetoric is escalating alongside actual military action. That creates a very dangerous situation because diplomacy only works if both sides genuinely want to reduce tensions.

[00:04:33]Right now, both sides appear to be increasing pressure before any agreement is finalized. And then we have Israel and Lebanon. Israel has continued carrying out strikes against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon. And Israeli officials have made it clear that they intend to intensify the operations even further. Now, this is critically important because Iran wants Israel operations in Lebanon to stop as part of the broader agreement. From Iran's point of view, Hezbollah one is one of its key regional allies. From Israel's point of view, Hezbollah remains an immediate security threat on its northern border.

[00:05:09]So, even if the United States and Iran can agree some form of framework, there's still a huge disagreement between Israel and Lebanon. And that's one of the reasons why this entire situation remains so unstable. Donald Trump also wants any final agreement to be tied into a wider regional settlement linked to Abraham Accords. Now, this is where things become even more politically sensitive because the Abraham Accords involve Arab recognition and normalization with Israel. Some Arab governments have already moved in that direction. Others are under enormous domestic pressure because of the current conflict. So trying to tie together a ceasefire, a nuclear agreement, sanctions relief, regional security guarantees, shipping protection in the Gulf, Israeli operations in Lebanon, and wider Arab-Israeli normalization is an incredibly ambitious objective. And that's why many analysts believe we are still a long way from a truly stable agreement because this is not one negotiation. It's multiple negotiations all happening simultaneously. And every missile strike, every drone incident, every attack in Lebanon, and every naval clash in the Gulf risk destabilizing the whole process. And meanwhile, the global economy continues to suffer the consequences. Oil prices initially eased when Donald Trump suggested a deal was close at the weekend, but they've quickly moved higher again once reports emerged of the latest US strikes and renewed naval tensions in Hammuz. And this is the key point. The market no longer reacts to headlines alone. The market reacts to actions. And the actions over the last 48 hours have been escalation. Oil around $100 is a major problem for the global economy. I've said it before, but it's true because this is no longer a temporary panic spike lasting just a few days. This is becoming embedded into the global system. Higher oil prices feed directly into gasoline, petrol, and diesel prices. They feed into aviation fuel.

[00:07:09]They feed into shipping costs. They feed into chemicals, plastics, and fertilizers. They feed into manufacturing costs and supermarket prices. And ultimately, they feed directly into inflation. That creates a huge problem for central banks around the world. Many economies are already struggling with weak growth, high borrowing costs, and rising government debt. There's been hopes that inflation would continue easing, allowing interest rates to gradually come down and therefore reduce the cost of borrowing both for companies and governments. But sustained oil prices at around $100 makes that much harder. If inflation starts moving higher again because of energy costs, central banks may have no choice but to keep rates elevated for longer. In Sri Lanka, they recently just announced a 1% increase in their interest rates. That's one of the biggest rises that we've seen anywhere around the globe recently. And they've specifically mentioned the impact of the war in Iran. Now, what that means is that mortgages remain more expensive, borrowing costs remain more expensive for businesses, government borrowing remains more expensive, consumer spending then weakens, and economic growth slows further. And this is why the straight of Vermuse matters so much because even if oil supply is not fully disrupted, uncertainty creates economic damage. The insurance premiums are rising because of that uncertainty, shipping costs are rising because they're either being delayed or having to reroute ships. Companies are now building extra inventory because they don't know whether or not their supplies will be continued. Energy traders increase risk premiums. Importers are scrambling for alternative supply routes and governments are becoming nervous about energy security. The longer this situation continues, the bigger the economic fallout becomes. And there is another issue here as well. The world economy was already fragile before this escalation. A lot of countries are carrying record levels of debt.

[00:09:14]Consumers are already under pressure from high living costs. Governments are struggling with deficits. and businesses in many sectors are already seeing weaker demand. So this is happening at a very vulnerable time for the global economy and this is why markets are watching every single development so closely because they're really only two possible outcomes here. Either this latest military action is the final burst of pressure before a deal is agreed, happy days, or it's the start of a wider escalation, not so happy days.

[00:09:46]And those two scenarios lead to completely different economic outcomes.

[00:09:50]If a deal is reached, oil prices could fall back sharply, shipping conditions could improve, and inflation pressures may start easing again. But if the fighting intensifies further and particularly if the straight of a moose becomes directly threatened, then the global economy faces a much more serious energy shock. And after nearly 80 days of elevated oil prices, households and businesses around the world are already starting to feel the pain. This conflict is no longer just about politics. It's about inflation. It's about interest rates. It's about the cost of living.

[00:10:25]It's about government finances. It's about economic growth. And ultimately, it's about whether the global economy can absorb another major shock. At a time when many countries were already struggling, the world is desperate for a ceasefire. But right now, military action has recommenced, and that does not look like a ceasefire to me. But I'll keep you posted on any further major news and developments. But hopefully you found today's video useful, informative, and most importantly, thoughtprovoking. If you've liked what I've said, or maybe didn't like it, you thought it was interesting, then please give me a thumbs up. Please subscribe to the channel if you haven't done so already. Don't forget, I'm currently running my competition where you can win my property located close to one of the best beaches in the UK or a cash alternative prize. Scan that QR code on the screen now if you know how to do that. Or if not, just have a look in the description below. The link is there. It will take you straight through to the website of the company that's organizing this competition on my behalf. It's totally independent. I'm not involved in picking the winner, but the winner will be picked soon. So, if you haven't got involved yet, please do so now because uh time is running out.

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[00:11:50]I'm trying to build it. It's basically going to be a place where all of my Russian content is located. So if you're just interested in Russian stuff, that's a good place to go to. I've had some feedback from people saying they didn't really like the variety that I'm posting on the main channel anymore. So, that's one of the reasons why I'm setting it up. But also, I think it may grow uh in itself because I know people who are not uh subscribers to this channel will be interested in that content. So, I'm interested to see how big it can get.

[00:12:18]But yeah, do need your support because it's early days. So, that'd be great if you could go and watch a video. Also mention that Joe and Naz is live. We definitely need your support. We're just starting out. We're early days. We don't have many subscribers yet, but we're hoping to grow big. So, if you could help us out, have a look at the link at the end of this video. It'll take you through to one of the Joe and Naz videos. It's a bit of fun. It's a bit of light relief. It's also quite interesting uh and entertaining. So, hopefully you'll enjoy it. Go check out one of the videos and subscribe. And in the meantime, here's something to put a smile on your face.