Cisco Repeats 1999 -10 year yield Warning! Greed, Deals, and hopium driving. ~Java!14May26

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-21

[00:00:01]Welcome to your daily shot of Java. It's May 14th, 2026. It is also Thursday.

[00:00:08]Thank you kindly for joining me. Today, we'll be talking about some different alliances. Not just trumping over in China, but an extension of a few of the things that are happening there.

[00:00:20]Now, the big watch really underlying all of this will be on rates, inflation, and bonds. So, let's get started as always with what's going on in the markets.

[00:00:32]Our fear great meters pulling back a bit. Still full greed mode at this moment. Now, at was 64 where ended up yesterday. Again, markets record highs. The United States 10-years, what we're keeping our eye on.

[00:00:48]We are hitting a danger zone here. Now, it has pulled back a bit as it approaches that five level for the 10-year.

[00:00:56]It could be an issue, serious issue at least for the stock market, but also pulling out from there. Now, relative strength of the dollar stronger with this.

[00:01:07]But, we're going to watch that kind of level off. I expect us were hearing a little bit more about what is going on with international relations. So, US stock market again hit all-time record highs. Uh this morning we're watching oil marginally up just kind of hanging around that $100 level, if you will. Expected to kind of hold here. Now, gold and silver and volatility a bit lower as things are looking a bit calm at the moment. Uh we are looking for the stocks to go higher driven off tech.

[00:01:43]One sector pulling all of this forward.

[00:01:46]Now, Bitcoin is kind of telling a little bit of future here. A bit of weakness.

[00:01:52]It's below that 80,000 level and it tends to lead at least by a couple days.

[00:01:57]So, what we are looking at for this driver is tech to the upside on debt going forward to the downside as debt very rate sensitive. Now, we did have as far as this uh jump in crude slightly.

[00:02:15]There was a vessel seized off of the UAE coast and it is now heading for Iran at this moment. Uh there's no news as far as uh where it was headed or the flag that it actually was carrying. Now, there have been a few vessels that have been trying to get out. They're shutting off all of their uh all of their signs that they're supposed to be broadcasting in order to get through.

[00:02:40]But, the more important thing that we've got this morning, we've got sentiment dropping for the consumers. Now, spending is the other side of this.

[00:02:48]Yesterday, we had a 30-year bond sale for United States uh Treasury. This This came out the worst in 20 years and it's approaching 5% now. So, one side is this is going to get more buyers perhaps into the bond if there is still trust that they would get paid back in 30 years. But, we're seeing some serious issues with this.

[00:03:14]So, with this, watching bond rates and not just for the United States, but across the board. As I said yesterday, throwing warning signs coming forward now. At the moment, still great market still going up, but this 10-year yield for the United States is under active suppression. You can see it in the charts as there was a massive reversal there.

[00:03:39]Now, Japan also, their 10-year yield the highest in 20 years. So, if we go back 20 years, we're talking about 2007. What happened there? And also, a lot of markers that are going back to 2020.

[00:03:54]Both of these were just prior to significant recession periods. Now, what we're looking at as far as this rally continuing, expenses of the corporations, which include why they're making job cuts.

[00:04:09]We'll talk about that more in a moment.

[00:04:12]Volatility. Volatility's increased. So, if we see more of a spike in volatility, corporations attempting to cut their expenses, and right now, at this moment, still getting decent earnings. This earning season has been good. However, when earnings begin dropping, but what is worse than actual earnings coming down is watching for revisions to the downside. So, if we see some of these larger corporations, especially these ones holding all of the weight in the tech sector, begin revising their estimates down, or forward-looking, that's massive signal get out as fast as you can because the doors are about to be blocked. In other words, they won't allow you to sell.

[00:04:58]So, couple of other things. First off, this is the headline. Consumer sentiment declining to a new record low as Americans fret over the Iran war. It is beginning to ripple out, but it's We're not even there yet. It's coming.

[00:05:15]Now, Xi warning Trump also that Taiwan may steps could lead to United States-China conflict. So, he's making it very clear that that is red line. They don't want it crossed. First day of everything is going smoothly. Taiwan not being mentioned. So, that's quite significant with this.

[00:05:37]So, calendar for today, we're expecting retail sales, jobless claims, as well as some uh uh import price index. So, going forward with that tomorrow, expecting Empire manufacturing and industrial numbers coming out, but I don't expect those to be large movers.

[00:05:57]We are more moving to the geopolitical as the movers for this. Of interest this morning to kind of uh bolster everything that we just went through, Cisco, their stock is up 16 between 16 18%.

[00:06:14]uh this morning on very strong broad-based demand driving third quarter earnings not only a beat, but also a raise. So, what do they do?

[00:06:26]They're cutting 4,000 jobs for artificial intelligence. So, last time this was similar was back 1999.

[00:06:35]I think they're a harbinger as they were the leader back then as well for the dot-com bust. So, watching this forward.

[00:06:43]We've also got defense tech startup as you can see here, Anduril. They doubled their valuation. Now, they are the maker of drones. Anduril is the one slated working very closely with Palantir for the software large uh war defense contracts that they are getting.

[00:07:04]So, a lot of these other things I am getting also from India as well as Japan in their headlines. So, this is not just from the United States. I uh try to diversify from looking at any one sector. Also, any one side I try to look at both so that we can get a more clear version here and this is where I hope to bring to you in kind of cutting time in looking at all of these to see kind of cut through this propaganda uh lens if you will. Now, India's stressing coordinated responses what is being called to the crisis that is formed at BRICS meeting.

[00:07:45]I've got this up here because this is being seen as threat to the US dollar.

[00:07:51]We're moving to the stable coins, cryptocurrencies, but these are more CBDCs, not true cryptocurrencies in the sense of independent of government meddling, if you will.

[00:08:03]India has also halted all sugar exports.

[00:08:08]They are trying to protect their own supply for them first. So, we've got BRICS going on. We've also got President Trump kind of hinting at visit with Putin a little bit later, possibly this year, and also has invited Xi to the White House in September. So, massive geopolitical shifting again going on. So, this is all after all of the disruption. Now, this is kind of pairing things back, putting them back together prior to midterms.

[00:08:40]Now, the European Union, as a short note, has purchased record amount of Russian liquid natural gas to get themselves forward. So, a meeting with Putin would be very beneficial for the EU to keep ties with Trump in the meantime because going forward, he is, like it or not, the deal maker. Honest or not, this is the way things are moving forward. We've got to be aware that this is the environment that we work within. Now, back to the United States local uh late student loan payments are rising.

[00:09:18]They are questioning domino effect, and as these rates go up, it's going to affect both those as well as market rates. Now, these are coming in a pair now. End of FHA is Federal Housing Administration. The pandemic relief to kick off a wave of foreclosures. As this ends, we've also got supply-demand issues working to balance themselves out more supply on the markets in the United States. So, not there yet. Still some increases in things forward, still inflation forward. So, the inflation's going to continue through not just repairs, but also building as far as the United States uh homes. So, that's going to be an effect we are watching forward.

[00:10:07]Now, Iran's message forward keeping the BRICS in mind.

[00:10:12]Their whole point, and it's no surprise, uh that they're trying to use India as this medium of the message that they want BRICS to shatter Western superiority. Now, I'm saying Western because this is inclusive, not just United States, but also the Gulf states.

[00:10:30]It is pulling against them because we have found out that both uh UAE as well as Saudi did conduct uh retaliatory strikes from Iran because they were uh taking out a lot of their infrastructure. So, with all of this kind of pushing these things forward, we do have a lot of positive things uh coming forward out of these talks, it appears. Uh there is greed for the moment, but just to watch what's going on, keeping an eye on the volatility, and if there's any earnings revisions forward, especially the larger the company, the larger the flag. So, until I see you again, my friends, I wish all of you a wonderful day, and as always, resist.