Ndindi Nyoro EXPOSES How Ruto is Sinking Kenya in DEBT! Borrowed more than Kibaki in Just 4 years!

Ajouté : 2026-06-03

[00:00:00]self, I may not be a proponent of land, but I've made money in land in the past.

[00:00:05]I have made multiples in 2 years by just buying a piece of land.

[00:00:11]So, I could be the last person to talk anything bad about land and real estate.

[00:00:16]But, that is then.

[00:00:18]It is a decade ago, just actually just when I left KU for my undergrad.

[00:00:27]Around that time, land was hot, was actually hot. We made money.

[00:00:34]Is that the case now?

[00:00:37]You tell me, because you have land. Try to sell it, and then we compare notes.

[00:00:42]And don't tell me about the value of your land. Tell me about the offers, credible ones, cuz there's a whole difference between what you think your land is worth and what you can actually receive from a person who can actually buy it, not the one who thinks they can buy it.

[00:01:01]The second thing, bonds and fixing money is the is is both sides of the same coin.

[00:01:11]Cuz both are lendings.

[00:01:14]Both are are debts.

[00:01:18]Lending, you lend I mean fixing money in the bank, you you are lending money to that bank.

[00:01:25]They actually compare it, they actually your deposits, they take it as a liability, not as an asset.

[00:01:32]Cuz you have umekopesha benki pesa.

[00:01:36]The other one of T-bills and bonds, you have given your money to government for a predetermined rate. So, you are lending money to government.

[00:01:47]So, both are the same. It is lending.

[00:01:51]And you only lend money when the other person has better use for it.

[00:01:56]It means when you are lending money to the bank through fixing it and you are lending money to the to the bank through buying T-bills and bonds, you have admitted that those two institutions have more better use for your money than yourself.

[00:02:13]So, that is the case.

[00:02:17]The third one is buying companies.

[00:02:21]But before I go there, because I'll be pretty short as I said.

[00:02:27]Uh this issue of lending money to these two institutions, fixing and also buy uh T-bills and bonds, there is one fallacy that I want to dissuade us from.

[00:02:42]Fallacy of government never defaults.

[00:02:49]Government will only pay me always pay me my money because it's government.

[00:02:55]Yes.

[00:02:57]Because possibly in your investment lifetime, it has never happened.

[00:03:03]But remember all the things that take too long to happen, when they happen, they actually happen.

[00:03:11]So, I'm here as a Kenyan with in a country where we have 13 trillion in in debt, national debt.

[00:03:25]Because those T-bills are what I'm talking about. Don't think I have I'm deviating from your from the speech. You might think, "Oh, he has now started those economics."

[00:03:34]No, I'm still on your bonds and and and T-bills.

[00:03:37]Because the accumulation of those are the ones we call national debt.

[00:03:42]So, it is 13 trillion.

[00:03:46]60% of that is your money.

[00:03:49]That is T-bond I mean domestic borrowing.

[00:03:52]And they happen majorly in those two elements.

[00:03:56]80% of that 60% is domestic debt. 80% of our domestic debt is owed to financial institutions.

[00:04:10]80%.

[00:04:12]Households, who are me and you, is, I think, around 3% or thereabouts.

[00:04:19]NGOs are around 1%.

[00:04:22]So, we go back to the default setting.

[00:04:26]That's what I want us to analyze together because that's what we are doing here.

[00:04:31]So, we are at 13 trillion.

[00:04:34]Because for the last 4 years we have borrowed more than 4 trillion. That's the reason why we are there.

[00:04:41]It's because for the last time from 2022, we have actually borrowed close to 4.5 trillion.

[00:04:50]So, 2022 debt is 600 billion.

[00:04:55]10 years back it goes, debt becomes 1.7, 1.8 trillion.

[00:05:01]So, he borrows 1.2 trillion in net terms.

[00:05:05]But the revenue grows by five times, from 200 billion to a trillion.

[00:05:11]There's a reason I'm saying that.

[00:05:13]Then from 2013, our debt grows from 1.7, 1.8 trillion to 8.7 trillion.

[00:05:21]So, in 10 years, we borrow 7 trillion.

[00:05:25]Our revenues in the same period grows from 1 trillion to 2.

[00:05:30]So, the debt triples, more than triples, but the revenue doubles.

[00:05:36]So, you can tell now, in that pace, who is actually a Kenyan marathoner and others?

[00:05:45]In that Boston Marathon, you can tell who is a Kenyan. The Kenyan there is a debt.

[00:05:51]A normal marathoner is the revenue.

[00:05:54]So, the Kenyan is way ahead.

[00:05:56]The other marathoners are way behind in terms of the growth.

[00:06:02]So, we are in 2022.

[00:06:04]Marathon is continuing.

[00:06:07]Debt grows from 8.7 trillion.

[00:06:10]We are now even not yet done with the first half with the with with the with the with with 5 years.

[00:06:18]With 5 years. We are not done with 5 years.

[00:06:21]The debt is now 13 trillion.

[00:06:24]So, we are in a race to borrow in 10 years in we are in a race to borrow in 5 years what we borrowed in 5 years the previous government.

[00:06:36]What we borrowed in 10 years in the previous government.

[00:06:39]And now we are borrowing in a year what Kibaki borrowed in 10 years.

[00:06:44]Now, so, I underline here because that is the that we are still in boats.

[00:06:51]In your boats.

[00:06:54]We are still in your investments.

[00:06:56]So, the debt has grown from 8.7 to the interest rates alone domestic.

[00:07:05]So, out of a hundred we will be spending if you include principal 90 shillings out of a hundred to service debt.

[00:07:16]So, to wrap up that story so that I finish up with shares, that story is about Kenya, but you as an investor, you need to very fast find a friend from Ghana.

[00:07:32]Get a friend from Ghana and have a call after this session.

[00:07:36]And then recap the story I've given.

[00:07:39]It is definite a it's so definite.

[00:07:43]If we do not change course, what we think is a solid rock will soon disintegrate.

[00:07:53]Because how is that going to survive?

[00:07:56]How?

[00:07:58]So, I am foreseeing in the future, not very long future, a boardroom like this.

[00:08:06]The person who will be standing here is government.

[00:08:11]Not Gideon Moi.

[00:08:13]Government.

[00:08:15]Have government as a person. The government will come and pick the microphone.

[00:08:19]And you'll be seated where you are sitting.

[00:08:22]The bank CEOs mostly will be in that table.

[00:08:26]Uh Mike and your team will be here.

[00:08:30]Because you must be in the front row to get the message correctly.

[00:08:34]Insurance companies will be there where there is microphones.

[00:08:40]A lot of us as Kenyans will also be listening.

[00:08:43]Uh maybe the whole will be too small for all of us. Others will be out just listening. Him put on your money.

[00:08:52]Then the program will start running like today.

[00:08:55]Let's have some brief remarks from the CEO of the group NMG.

[00:09:00]And after that, the main speaker, who is the government.

[00:09:05]The government will take the mic and tell you a good good evening.

[00:09:10]It will be an evening that time most likely.

[00:09:14]Because mornings are not made for those kind of news.

[00:09:18]Then they will come and tell you, "I know and I agree. You are a good Kenyan.

[00:09:24]You gave me a million shillings last month because you bought treasury bonds.

[00:09:29]And I'm very grateful because we were able to pay some recurrent expenditure, which were really pressing us."

[00:09:36]And then the government will go ahead and tell you, "You know Kenya is for all of us, eh?

[00:09:41]We all belong here. We are Kenyan and we are patriotic. And I want to commend you for your patriotism.

[00:09:47]And it's because of that patriotism I come to request you our debt is 13 trillion and 60% I owe it to you.

[00:10:00]But out of the interest rates I'm paying of 1.25 1.25 I am paying to external. Cuz external debt is always cheaper. That's why you see 40% of our debt is only accruing to 50 billion of interest.

[00:10:17]But 60% of our debt is accruing a a trillion in interest. So the government will now tell you because what I begin you know you are the external people.

[00:10:28]Now how to squeeze they have they are hard.

[00:10:31]They are hard because they are not listening to us.

[00:10:34]So let's leave them. We pay them their 250 billion every year.

[00:10:38]And that's the reason I called you as Kenyans.

[00:10:41]Let's see what we can do about this 1 trillion.

[00:10:44]Because there are some roads going to your home and there is a school we went to for primary school.

[00:10:52]There is something we are doing about those two things.

[00:10:55]That's why we are requesting we know for sure we owe you a a million shillings.

[00:11:01]But because I'm the sovereign on this Tuesday evening we have just decided from our from our meeting as the government that out of this 1 million we owe you 700,000.

[00:11:16]Then you start tapping your neighbor.

[00:11:18]Did you hear?

[00:11:20]Then the government will tell you, "Yes, I am very happy for your patriotism. Out of a million shillings from today I owe you 700,000.

[00:11:29]In barber shop and salon language, we call that a haircut.

[00:11:37]And then they tell you, we know we also owe you to pay you next 6 months some money.

[00:11:45]We are requesting for the next 2 years, you may not hear from us.

[00:11:50]But immediately after 2 years, you start hearing from us.

[00:11:54]So, you remember the bond you bought for 10 years, we have just made it 12 years.

[00:12:00]Only that for these 2 years in front of us here, don't wait to hear from us.

[00:12:05]Thank See you another day.

[00:12:10]Signed, the government.

[00:12:13]I know that sounded like a story.

[00:12:16]So, after this call your Ghanaian friend.

[00:12:19]And then make sure you call a pensioner who is also a Ghanaian.

[00:12:24]The ripple effect is that this money from financial institutions are a deposit, which I have also lent to the bank as a deposit.

[00:12:35]I am not trying to to paint a picture, but I would want all the experts here, after we finish, anyone with an answer to that come and pick the mic.

[00:12:47]Tell me the alternative to that in the next many Not many, in the next few years to come.

[00:12:55]Tell me.

[00:12:57]So, we either change courses as a country, all of these bonds we are holding, they are not worth what you are holding.

[00:13:05]Because the other alternative is to print money.

[00:13:08]Then print money.

[00:13:10]It is the same scenario. It lowers the quality of your money.

[00:13:14]So, let me go now to the optimistic side.

[00:13:18]Shares, bonds.

[00:13:20]A A I almost made a very gross mistake.

[00:13:24]Shares and equities, whatever name you may pick from it.

[00:13:28]So why do I prefer this? Me as an investor other than all the others that I've given.

[00:13:35]Again because of time.

[00:13:37]Around this time in Kenya, I think I'm well positioned.

[00:13:42]Shares of course you start by looking global.

[00:13:45]When you look global Dow Jones is over 50,000 now.

[00:13:52]Within Iran, not outside of Iran within within the Iran issue Dow Jones are now over um 50,000 the index.

[00:14:05]Almost almost touching the record high which it touched uh earlier this year.

[00:14:12]If you look at all the other indices in the US some by yesterday touched touched their all-time high. That's good. It's fine cuz the stock market in the US always goes up. Forget about the bumps of of recessions and uh hitting of the market. If you draw the graph, you smooth then it. It is upward all the time.

[00:14:33]Depends with what percentage. But that's not the point.

[00:14:37]So the world has been expansionary during COVID time then contractionary after COVID because of inflation.

[00:14:51]Before Iran the world was expansionary. Expansionary meaning we are lowering interest rates everywhere.

[00:15:01]The last three from before February across the world the the Federal Reserves or the Central Banks were lowering interest rates including ours including the US even with a push for more cuts by the executive there.

[00:15:19]Now inflation has climbed.

[00:15:23]The only month we have measured very well after Iran in Kenya inflation is up.

[00:15:28]Inflation figures in Kenya will be coming out this weekend.

[00:15:32]Of course, you may expect something more than 7.5%.

[00:15:36]Most likely, definitely.

[00:15:39]So, what does that mean when the next CBR is meeting?

[00:15:45]When the When the Federal Reserve meets in the US, the very best to accommodate the executive, the very best they can do is to sustain the rate.

[00:15:55]But But that's not even feasible.

[00:15:57]The sensible thing is to raise.

[00:15:59]CBR is to raise.

[00:16:01]So, we are back to contractionary.

[00:16:04]So, we are back to contractionary, meaning interest rates will be going up.

[00:16:08]Revisit the issue of debt I talked about and your votes.

[00:16:12]Let me now give you two hints because you know what to do to go and do more homework.

[00:16:17]So, you have now started a journey of raising interest rates. So, that's contractionary monetary policy.

[00:16:27]Even if I'm talking about shares, that point lift it, take it back to Ghana, and start now doing it. Actually it's in the house, you go do your homework.

[00:16:37]With this extract With this raising of rates with the other problem I described, then tell me where we are headed.

[00:16:44]And then tell me what you foresee in terms of subscriptions of bonds and bills in the next few weeks, then you make your decision. Let me go back to the equities.

[00:16:55]So, P/E ratio of the US market I didn't miss anything that I had to hint because this floor is filled by people who should actually be holding the mic and me listening.

[00:17:08]So, you are all well versed.

[00:17:12]P/E ratio in the US market is over 70 27.

[00:17:16]If you bought all the US companies, uh Johannesburg could be maybe over 15, the P/E ratio.

[00:17:27]Um Nigeria maybe around 11.

[00:17:33]By the way, in this whole Do you all know what P/E ratio is?

[00:17:37]Because I think I'm assuming too much.

[00:17:41]We know, eh?

[00:17:44]You know, I may start talking Greek then I'm talking to myself.

[00:17:48]If you bought this hotel today at 10 million shillings and the annual revenue is 1 million net revenue, how long would it take you to recover your money?

[00:18:06]Talk to me, guys. What are you doing?

[00:18:09]10 years. That's the P/E ratio.

[00:18:12]That's the P/E ratio.

[00:18:13]If I bought Absa Kenya today and their net revenue If I bought Absa for 100 billion today and their annual net revenue is 10 billion, how long would it take me using what is called trailing P/E, the most recent trailing P/E?

[00:18:38]How long would it take me to recover my money that I invested in Absa?

[00:18:43]That's what is called P/E.

[00:18:46]Price over earning ratio or market cap over net earnings.

[00:18:53]It It will give you the same.

[00:18:56]If you bought all the companies listed in the US, their P/E ratio is 27.

[00:19:02]It will take you 27 years.

[00:19:04]There are some that are low, but there are some that are people are buying future.

[00:19:09]Take Tesla. Tesla is over 200 P/E ratio.

[00:19:12]Most tech companies have higher P ratios cuz you're buying the future more than the present.

[00:19:19]JSE Johannesburg is around 17 maybe 15 to 17.

[00:19:27]Nigeria around 11. Kenya The average P ratio on the Kenyan companies is five.

[00:19:37]So, I'm standing here as a very patriotic Kenyan that at the current moment, I don't know why I should not buy shares in Kenya. I have and I have no reason to buy in any other market. And I have actually no reason to care about what the government is doing because some of the companies are too solid for any government to do anything.

[00:20:01]That