El Niño: A global warning | Vietnam Today

本站添加: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]As global temperatures continue to rise, attention is once again turning to a familiar climate driver, El Nino. El Nino is a natural climate pattern where sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean rise above average. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months. During strong events, sea surface temperatures can rise significantly above long-term averages, disrupting weather patterns across the globe. During El Nino events, trade winds weaken or shift direction, allowing warm water to move eastward across the Pacific. This change can influence the weather patterns in many regions around the world.

[00:00:48]And warning from scientists show that climate change is becoming increasingly evident through extreme heat waves, droughts, and wildfires occurring across many parts of the world. As the World Meteorological Organization warns of a possible return of El Nino this year, many countries are entering a phase of closer monitoring and preparedness for the rising risk of extreme weather events.

[00:01:19]>> But we warmed the planet by about 1.5 degrees Celsius since the 19th century, and that is halfway to the Pliocene. And the Pliocene was the the period 3 million years ago.

[00:01:42]>> India is facing severe heat and water shortages as El Nino drives above average heatwave days across parts of the country.

[00:01:51]To manage that, we have arranged water tankers, which will be used when the need arises. We are on alert mode for the rest of the areas.

[00:02:01]>> Not only in India, countries across the region are also bracing for prolonged heat and drought as El Nino is forecast to strengthen in the coming months. In Pakistan, farmers brought their cattle into rivers to cool off amid the scorching heat.

[00:02:18]>> Because of the heat and to prevent them from fatigue, the cows have to be bathed and watered once or twice a day.

[00:02:27]>> Some areas have already run out of water and only farms with ground water wells can continue operating. We are urging farmers not to expand cultivation beyond planned areas.

[00:02:40]>> And here in Hanoi, even in the morning, the heat is still intense. The temperature on my phone say it's 48° C, but honestly, it feels much hotter out here. With El Nino expected to return, Vietnam is also stepping up preparations for more extreme weather ahead.

[00:02:58]>> To stay prepared, we update El Nino forecasts at least once a month using satellite observations and climate data from Europe, the US, and other countries. We also provide 3-9 month forecasts to help authorities plan for droughts, salt water intrusion, and extreme weather.

[00:03:18]>> As concerns grow over a possible strong El Nino event, terms like mega El Nino, super El Nino, and Godzilla El Nino have appeared increasingly across recent media reports.

[00:03:31]>> We in WMO don't use the term uh super El Nino. Our classification goes from weak, moderate, and strong El Nino according to the science. But, what is clear is that the event which is going to happen seems to be an important one.

[00:03:54]>> Some forecasts for this year suggest temperatures could reach between 2.5 and 3° C above normal. The strongest El Niño on record is believed to have occurred in the 1877 when temperatures were above 2.7° C above the average. Experts warned it could place growing pressure on the economies and societies across the Asia-Pacific region. To better understand these risks, we speak with Carsten Fiscura, Economic Affairs Officer at the United Nations Economic and Social Commissions for Asia and the Pacific.

[00:04:32]Recently, many media outlets and climate forecasts have warned about the possibility of a strong El Niño in the coming months. In your view, how could this affect the economies and societies across the Asia-Pacific region?

[00:04:48]>> We know that climate the seasonal climate, the monsoons, are highly sensitive to El Niño conditions.

[00:04:55]In ASEAN, roughly 1/3 or that's about 34% of the workforce in ASEAN depends on agriculture. So, shifts in rainfall, as you can imagine, can quickly translate into impacts on household incomes, food production, and rural livelihoods. El Niño shocks don't stay in agriculture.

[00:05:16]It hits growth, livelihoods, and household welfare all at once via food price increase and inflation.

[00:05:24][clears throat] What we're seeing now is that climate models are broadly converging. They all point to a high likelihood of El Niño by mid-2026, possibly a strong one, but we have to remember that at this point the exact intensity is still uncertain. We will know more in the coming weeks.

[00:05:45]>> Well, you mentioned that El Nino can disrupt rainfall patterns, food production, livelihoods, and even dry up inflation across the region. For Vietnam specifically, what impacts could El Nino bring?

[00:06:00]>> So, for Vietnam, again, history tells us that the biggest concern would be on drought and salinity intrusion, particularly in the Mekong Delta, which is crucial for rice production and aquaculture. But, it's not just the Delta. In the past El Nino events, the central and southern regions of Vietnam have also been hit hard with some of the highest drought risk. But again, as I mentioned, history is not destiny. Uh Vietnam has a lot of experience dealing with El Nino in the past. In the most recent drought events, uh 2019 to 20, the impacts of on agriculture have been less severe in uh Vietnam because authorities and farmers took early actions like planting uh earlier, improving irrigation, building embankments, and expanding uh water infrastructure. So, the risks uh triggered by El Nino are real, but their impacts can also be mitigated with the right actions.

[00:07:04]With the risk of El Nino becoming increasingly clear, what should countries in the region do now to prepare better and reduce its impacts?

[00:07:15]>> So, the good news is we have time to act. El Nino can be predicted up to 6 months ahead. So, first information, governments must actively draw on climate information from their national hydrometeorological services to put contingency plans in place. Uh second is finance. Uh countries need to create this fiscal space to act early, not just to respond after the damage is done. And finally, uh institutional coordination.

[00:07:45]Climate impacts cut across sectors, and therefore, strong coordination across ministries and agencies, agriculture, water, energy, finance, and health is critical to make sure that actions from policies up to the execution in the field are aligned and uh timely. And finally, my key message is history is not destiny.

[00:08:10]Historical records give us a clear picture of the risk uh brought about by El Niño, and where they will be concentrated, who will be the hardest hit. But with early and coordinated action, we are not doomed to repeat the same uh outcomes.

[00:08:28]>> Thank you so much,