Today's Severe Threat Just Got WORSE...

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Severe weather is not letting up anytime soon as another major severe weather outbreak is possible over the next few days. Beginning today, a large area of severe weather is expected from Texas into the Great Lakes with the highest threat focused across parts of Oklahoma and Iowa. Storms could produce damaging winds, large hail, and several tornadoes, some of which may become strong later this afternoon and evening.

[00:00:25]However, this is not the most significant severe weather threat for the rest of the week. as a substantial severe weather outbreak is likely on Friday. Very large hail, widespread damaging winds, and intense tornadoes may all be possible. This crazy weather is nowhere near done. So, let's get right into the forecast. And we have a ton of important severe weather updates in today's forecast, and I want to jump right into the risk of severe weather for today across the United States. The Storm Prediction Center has a large slight risk of severe weather from Pennsylvania back into Texas and a marginal threat from New England back towards Abalene, Texas where all hazards are going to be on the table today. And I honestly could see there being an upgrade to an enhanced risk of severe weather today, maybe back over in the Midwest, where I do expect a more elevated risk of all hazards. But beginning with our damaging wind risk, we're expecting scattered damaging winds today between 50 and 70 mph. Really not much different from what we've seen over the last few days. Large to very large hail is also a possibility, especially with those initial discrete supercells that go up from Omaha, De Moine into Davenport, and Southwest Wisconsin.

[00:01:26]Could have hail as large as a size of 3 in in diameter, which is the size of an apple. So that's big stuff that we're talking about there. And there's also a risk of that same large to very large hail threat from Witchah, Kansas, all the way back over towards Abalene, Texas. So a dangerous day of giant hail is setting up. But one of the things I'm really concerned about is the risk of tornadoes. This will happen anytime from basically 2:00 this afternoon all the way through about midnight where we're watching for a few tornadoes from Pennsylvania into Dallas, Fort Worth, even Oklahoma, and also across Iowa. I honestly think this area could grow in size though when whenever we get our next SBC outlook, and we're going to talk more about that in a moment. But today's been up trending quite a bit. I think we could have a significant tornado day over here, even as far east as areas like Jainsville, just west of Chicago with any discrete supercells that go up today. But De Moines is definitely going to be one of the areas we need to watch for. There is a hatched 5% tornado risk there. And then there's also a 5% hatched tornado risk from the Red River Valley just north of Dallas near Gainesville for example in Witchah Falls through Springfield, Missouri. So we are talking about the risk of strong to possibly an intense tornadoes later today. We got to make sure we have ways to receive alerts today. And make sure you're staying tuned to our channel because we're going to be live covering this with live stormchasers on the ground. So subscribe to the channel and click the bell icon so you're notified for when we do go live. And then tomorrow, our threat of severe weather will shift mainly into the northeast, but there could be some isolated severe weather in the Ohio Valley and Mississippi River Valley. We're watching mainly for damaging winds and a little bit of large hail. There is a low tornado risk right now outlined from Buffalo, New York into southern and central parts of New England. So definitely have ways to receive alerts up here, but I think generally speaking, the risk of severe weather is fairly low for tomorrow. Friday though, we're right back to it. In the Great Plains, in the Midwest, a dangerous severe weather outbreak is likely on Friday with widespread severe thunderstorms from literally northern Wisconsin into Texas, producing all hazards, including widespread damaging winds, large to very large hail, and also strong tornadoes.

[00:03:18]So, it's going to be a very busy day on Friday. This could end up being a large squall line. So, we literally could have widespread thunderstorms just across the board. Make sure you're subscribed to the channel, guys. It is going to be a very intense next few days all across the country. Now, let's talk more about the timing of severe weather. And we'll begin with what is happening in the Midwest today. And as we've been talking about, today is uptrended a lot in terms of significant severe weather. And by as early as 1:00 this afternoon, we are going to have convective initiation just to the south of De Moine. And these storms are going to quickly go up and they're going to become tornatic, I think, fairly quickly this afternoon.

[00:03:50]This picture here is 2:00. And notice how we have all sorts of cells going up here just to the west of Davenport. And if these storms can stay discreet enough, there will be an elevated risk of strong tornadoes. So, we need to keep an eye on that. But even over here near Omaha, Nebraska, we could have a supercell or two go up over here. And though the tornado environment isn't as favorable out this direction, I would not rule out the potential for some big hail. We could even see hail as large as the size of baseballs and perhaps even a significant tornado as that goes right along the interstate. By 3 to 4:00, notice how quickly these storms start to increase in intensity over here near Davenport, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. And one very interesting model trend that we're seeing is that there's not much morning convection. So, it's keeping things really unstable, and this should lead to a much more elevated risk of tornadoes this afternoon. So, if storms can stay discreet, it's going to be go time for some pretty significant severe weather.

[00:04:41]By 5:00, there are a lot of rotating storms here. We got several over here in Missouri, southern Iowa, even got one over near De Moine. And then we got all sorts of storms over right along the Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin borders.

[00:04:52]And these could be producing tornadoes as well by around 5:00 p.m. So, we are talking about possibly another significant day of severe weather. But I really want to stress this. Today could go either way. Today could be a kind of a a what it is right now, a slight risk of severe weather where there's some damaging winds, some giant hail, and maybe a couple of tornadoes. or it could be something like this where the atmosphere is way more primed for discrete supercells. We don't have a whole lot of, you know, clusters of thunderstorms kind of like what we had yesterday. And it could end up leading to at least a few strong tornadoes here in areas like Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa. So, I'm getting a little bit more concerned that today might end up being a bit more significant than I think some people even realize. But again, it could go either way. Might be a lower end day.

[00:05:31]It definitely does have a decent ceiling though compared to what we thought it would have uh for a day like today. By 6:00, storms will be approaching Chicago, Milwaukee, and Kenosha. We also got storms that'll be still ongoing back over in Iowa. That'll be along a cold frontal boundary, producing some big hail and maybe even an isolated strong tornado. And then by 7 to 8:00, storms move over Lake Michigan into southern Michigan. All the storms back over here to the west of Chicago will become clustered together. We'll be talking about scattered, damaging wind gusts and maybe a couple of tornadoes embedded in that cluster. But I'm more concerned by 8 to 9:00 tonight. We could have a significant wind threat moving across southern Michigan. So if you live in Flint, Detroit, or even near Cold Water, we definitely got to be staying alert here for an elevated damaging wind threat tonight. And then as we head into Thursday morning, things will start to quiet down in the Midwest. And then obviously we'll have a lot more severe weather on Friday. And we'll talk about that in a second. And then further down to the south, we are expecting discrete and semi-discreet supercells to fire off this afternoon anywhere from St. Louis back down into the areas like the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma. Most of the storms over here near St. Louis are going to be producing some isolated damaging winds and hail. I don't expect a whole lot of significant severe weather out of those. But by 4 to 5:00, we could have some discrete supercells.

[00:06:40]Maybe one down near North Texas, perhaps just outside of Dallas Fort Worth.

[00:06:44]Definitely stay alert, guys, if you live in Dallas for Worth. If you look very bottom of your screen there, there's one little discreet supercell near Denton County that might get going. We also got another one just to the south of Oklahoma City near Norman that could get going with giant hail and maybe even a strong tornado being possible. But I am again concerned about today. Honestly, there's been a lot of uptrends here in terms of discrete supercells happening.

[00:07:03]And this could lead to a pretty significant day of tornadoes if this all transpires. There is a lot of wind shear today. The big question mark going into today is going to be the amount of forcing that we have. If there's too much forcing, which means too many storms are going up at once, the tornado threat's going to be very minuscule. But if it ends up being like this where these discrete cells are spaced out, it could easily be a big day of tornadoes.

[00:07:22]And that's the big question mark that we've had going into today. Last couple days did not show anything like this. So again, by 7 8:00, we could have a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and really large hail across Oklahoma. Even some storms over there near Springfield, eventually moving into areas like Arkansas and also going into the direction of Kentucky. They should weaken as they move into Arkansas tonight. Kind of like what we saw last night where there was a line of thunderstorms, had a couple tornado warnings near Fagville. Generally speaking though, I think this line of thunderstorms will weaken as it moves into Arkansas with maybe some gusty winds and maybe some spotty areas of rotation, but I don't think anything will be too organized there. And then on Thursday, our threat of severe weather will continue across parts of the Northeast, Ohio Valley, and even back into the Ozarks. Mainly looking for damaging winds, some large hail, maybe an isolated tornado threat. I would also keep an eye on any activity that tries to get going down here over near the Mississippi River Valley because if any storms get going, might see an isolated tornado threat, but otherwise looking at a cluster of damaging winds and large hail, but generally speaking, storms on Thursday are not going to be anywhere near the intensity of what we've seen recently, but we might get some much needed rain over in Tennessee and Alabama here soon. It's not a whole lot, but might have a few passing showers could help the drought just a smidge in those areas. And hopefully by next week we'll actually have a much better shot of rain across the southeast and and really everywhere in the southeast.

[00:08:34]Desperately needs rainfall right now.

[00:08:35]Now, as we head into Friday, we are expecting widespread severe thunderstorms from Minnesota and Wisconsin into Texas and Oklahoma. One of the things we need to watch out for on Friday will be those initial discrete supercells that go up as they will be working with quite the favorable environment when it comes to tornadoes with lots of wind shear and a strong low-level jet that'll stretch from Wisconsin back into Texas where a few tornadoes do appear likely Friday afternoon and evening. And this could lead to some strong tornadoes. The environment very very favorable back down in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas even after sunset. So we could deal with a nocturnal tornado threat. Might even have something over here in Illinois and Missouri that could lead to a more heightened tornado threat as well. So, it does look like it's going to be a very busy Friday afternoon and evening.

[00:09:16]So, here's what the future radar looks like. Storms will go up by around 2 to 3:00, mainly over here near Minnesota, back into Kansas and Oklahoma. And apparently, my Zoom meeting is ending.

[00:09:23]This happened in one of my other videos, too. We got a large area though of thunderstorms that's going to be going up around 3:00. Mostly looking at large hail and damaging winds. But our tornado threat will be elevated with any of these initial discrete supercells. But these storms are going to upscale very quickly. This is going to lead to a large cluster of thunderstorms producing basically widespread damaging winds by 4 to 5:00 in the afternoon. So, very concerning stuff here because we're talking about widespread thunderstorms.

[00:09:48]Damaging winds could be anywhere from 60 to 80 mph and there could even be some tornadoes embedded in this line of thunderstorms, which means a QLCS tornado threat will exist. So, this line of thunderstorms going to quickly upscale. It's going to produce some big problems across Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Illinois. And then as we go into the late evening, we'll have to keep an eye on storms trying to form down here in Texas and Oklahoma because if any storms get going, it is a very favorable environment for strong tornadoes. So, we need to keep an eye on that. And then as we end Saturday morning, that line of thunderstorms will push to the east, which will lead to another round of severe weather in the Ohio Valley on Saturday with more damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. And then beyond Friday, we will see a little bit more severe weather as we head into Saturday across the Ohio Valley, even back down into the deep south. We're watching mainly for an isolated to scattered damaging wind threat. Maybe a couple of tornadoes embedded in this line of thunderstorms.

[00:10:37]And then as we head into Sunday, things look a lot nicer and quieter for nearly the entire country. But obviously, we need to get through the next like four to five days for that to even be a thing that we even think about at this point.

[00:10:48]Then eventually as we go to the middle and end of next week, it looks like it's going to get active once again. So, April has a lot of severe weather left in it. We got a lot of severe weather over the next few days and then more of it will be coming by the middle and end of next week. And guys, we do plan on being live later today with severe weather coverage. So, make sure you subscribe to the channel. Click the bell icon so you're notified with the latest updates. But in the meantime, go watch our 247 live weather stream on the second channel. More Max Velocity.

[00:11:11]There's also a link at the top of the description if you want to check this out. It has live weather radar. There's live weather cameras, live stormchasers, and really the latest updates on everything that's happening out there.

[00:11:20]So, check this out. Let me know what you think over there as well. Thank you guys all again so much for watching, and we will see you in the next video or live stream.