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追加: 2026-06-03

[00:00:00]The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a decline in oil investments for the third consecutive year, falling below $500 billion this year, driven by the supply shock in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The agency's annual report indicated that total energy investments would rise slightly to $3.4 trillion, as importing countries shift towards renewable and nuclear energy to secure their domestic supplies. Conversely, according to the report, spending on liquefied natural gas (LNG) investment jumped to its highest level in a decade, reaching nearly $330 billion.

[00:00:51]After the break, we'll explore whether energy sector stocks have become a hedge against the risks of war.

[00:00:59]Stay with us.

[00:01:19]Tech can make complex things easy to understand. The latest financial update you have is market movement fast, so you can trade like a champion with the CFI app engineered for the power of now, protected with advanced security for speed and simplicity. Wherever you are, the US energy market witnessed a radical transformation this year. In 2026, after starting the year with a pessimistic outlook, the Energy Information Administration predicted a drop in crude oil prices to around $51 due to oversupply. Then came the Iranian war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, turning the landscape upside down.

[00:02:29]Brent crude jumped to around $125, and the S&P 500 energy sector index rose by about 25% since the beginning of the year. Investors are dealing with this rise through three channels: major oil companies as a geopolitical hedge; refining and services companies leading the way with superior profit margins and cash returns; and the energy sector, which powers artificial intelligence, continues to be attractive with the growing demand for data centers. The sector remains appealing with earnings multiples ranging between 11 and 17 times, compared to 25 to 30 times in the technology sector.

[00:03:20]I'm researching this topic from Beirut with my colleague, Marie Salem, a financial analyst at Al-Sharq News. Marie, good morning. This topic concerns oil companies, perhaps one of the most important sectors that has benefited from what has happened and is still happening.

[00:03:41]The question is, in this context... The three scenarios for oil companies – do you think this might add more momentum, a change in the perception of this sector that has been neglected from an investment perspective? I mean, from the investor's point of view, everyone is looking towards the technology sector, or is it a temporary phenomenon that will fade away, even if it takes a little longer, in the language of stock market investment?

[00:04:09]Good morning, Emad, and thank you very much. So, today, when we're talking about the rises or performance of global energy companies, especially in America, and we consider the three scenarios you mentioned as the main factor behind these leaps, we can't say that these factors are only temporary. When we're just talking about the political generation being swept away by the factors related to the war on Iran, we can say that the performance we're seeing in these companies is temporary. But when you have a different perspective on the stocks in this sector, and you have a kind of investment in the value inherent in these stocks, or even a bet on artificial intelligence and energy, and the huge demand we're seeing, for example, for electricity and AI data centers, interest in electricity, gas, and energy companies returns. Nuclear companies like KEXIT ERA and Constellation Energy have been experiencing declines in recent performance.

[00:05:10]However, the outlook for energy sector stocks has shifted. We can no longer view them solely through the traditional lens of a specific political situation or the existing supply and demand dynamics. So, if the question today is how temporary this phase is, there are two things we need to consider. It's likely a combination of both. The market is seeing declining valuations, rising global demand, and the emerging trend we're observing through artificial intelligence.

[00:05:47]Yesterday, we discussed AI in detail and how AI companies are benefiting from providing the fundamentals to AI companies.

[00:05:55]Today, investors are looking at energy sector stocks related to AI and its supply chains to see how much they will benefit. At the same time, they're considering the restructuring of this sector based on Iranian tensions, the risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and rising oil prices. The oil crisis means you have the political dimension and the dimension related to the structure of these companies and their direct operations. It's not just about oil exploration or anything else; it's also linked to energy supplies connected to artificial intelligence companies. Today, investors are looking at two factors: whether the market views energy solely as the oil sector or as a fundamental infrastructure for the digital world. Looking at the second dimension, you find that artificial intelligence, which is dominating the world, is certainly impacting energy sector companies like electricity, gas, and nuclear power. There are huge investments in infrastructure that extends to or is attracted from energy companies. Therefore, we can't say this is temporary if the rapid decline we're seeing is due to geopolitical factors. But if things calm down geopolitically, these oil prices will decrease, and consequently, it will affect the energy sector.

[00:07:14]However, the bigger question is whether this is the beginning of a new energy cycle driven by electricity.

[00:07:19]Artificial intelligence and capital discipline are creating a different momentum now, more about value investment in these companies than the abundance of oil supply and how much oil prices are affecting them.

[00:07:37]Indeed, as you mentioned, there's even variation among these companies. If we're talking about the major companies, there's variation in their movements and reactions.

[00:07:45]There's more speculation, even regarding the size of the debt and how the company deals with this issue. We just heard that the International Energy Agency expects a decline in oil investments. In your opinion, how does this also contribute? A perhaps not optimistic outlook for oil markets, but it might support two aspects: paybacks, providing more liquidity to buy shares (a well- known practice for these companies), and dividends. Both factors contribute to pushing prices to stay or rise, maintaining, even partially, these gains. There's a very fundamental point you just mentioned: the factors driving these major companies, specifically if we look at ExxonMobil and Chevron since the beginning of the year.

[00:08:36]Their gains, approximately 20-22% for both companies, mean we can say they are in the same boat and their direction was unified based on the rise in oil prices, based on these companies' policies regarding dividends and the incentives they offer investors, the liquidity available to these companies, and the share buyback program.

[00:08:57]We always know that share buyback programs in large companies of this type contribute to restoring investor confidence. The company won't buy back its shares if they have no value, so when you buy back your shares in such companies, the company is creating a new momentum in the markets and restoring investor confidence that these companies are still maintaining the profitability they were recording in previous periods. Today, they say every cloud has a silver lining. The war or the prevailing political situation that led to the rise in oil prices and changed the perception that oil prices would fall to $51 created this positivity among investors, prompting them to look at these companies.

[00:09:39]These companies, or energy sectors, especially in America or even the Gulf countries, are viewed more from an investment perspective than from a price volatility perspective.

[00:09:52]We know that price fluctuations can sometimes be positive, but once political tensions subside, we might see a reversal. We've seen in the last couple of trading sessions that there has been a lot of volatility, but there's a kind of stability that creates the positive trend we're seeing in the global energy sector in general. This will certainly be reflected at a different pace in the region after we've seen a period of calm. How long will oil prices remain stable at or close to their current levels?

[00:10:24]Okay, so the shift towards value stocks, including oil companies, is significant. The current momentum in the markets, these rises we're following (excluding tactical or temporary pullbacks), is driving this shift. Do you think the current market situation is contributing to pushing more liquidity towards value stocks, or is time not a sufficient factor to shift some of this liquidity?

[00:10:59]It's natural that some investors are shifting to value stocks, as we were saying, that exceptionally, factors have shifted positively— oil prices and the performance of these energy-related stocks. However, overall, investors are concerned that these increases might not be sustainable, and this is something we expected and discussed.

[00:11:25]Generally, value stocks and investments in them are a hedging tool for investors, diversifying their portfolios to create balance. We can't always assume that oil price increases will continue and that we'll always see these increases in the energy sector because the reasons are constantly changing. They aren't always fundamental.

[00:11:51]If we're talking about factors that influence these increases, they are exceptional, but once these exceptional factors—I'm referring to the geopolitical situation—stabilize, prices tend to return to lower levels than what we're seeing now. These are the concerns that some might have. Investors are aware that we might return to the scenario that was in place at the beginning of the year: a surge in supply. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, how many companies will remain committed to their current supply levels? And if we see another surge in supply that dramatically impacts prices, thank you from Beirut, Malis Alam, financial analyst at Al Sharq News.