West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala & Puducherry Assembly Elections 2026: What Experts Predict?

本站添加: 2026-04-29

[00:00:00]Viewers, good evening. The mother of all mandates is loading. You're watching Times Now India's election news headquarters. Zaka Jacob here with me. So is Swati Jooshi.

[00:00:10]And this promises to be an exciting evening with a brilliant panel that we have here with you. Let's quickly introduce the panel. JBC Shiram, our poll strategist Dr. Anand Ranatan, Shikhar Aayar, Sava Nakwi, Harish Muhammad, Ibrahim, Ashwini Kumar, Mishra, Mr. S. Balan, Niladri, Bhachara and Dr. Nikil Prasoon of the BJP will be joining us without wasting any time.

[00:00:34]Let's talk about the one state that has been the highlight of this election which is West Bengal. The polling concludes in about 30 minutes from now.

[00:00:46]The first start will be out on times now shortly. Let's start with you Dr. Ranganatan. What do you make of the contest? uh slide into, landslide into two, and open wide in one.

[00:00:59]>> Okay. You're not revealing which state is the slide, which which state is the landslide. But why do you say that? Why do you say there's a landslide in one, there is a slide in two?

[00:01:07]>> Yeah. I I think uh well, I can reveal what I believe is going to the case. I think Assam is going to have a landslide for the BJP >> and the same would go for Bengal.

[00:01:18]>> You think the BJP would would get a landslide in Bengal? Sabah you disagree.

[00:01:22]>> I think if the BJP gets a landslide in Bengal then we have a new template for elections and then we can just let do logical discrepancy and send a lot of central troops. They sent as much CRPF very near what they sent for the natural election do it all then we can we can we could conduct >> No. What did you pick up on ground? Do you think the BJP will get a landslide in Bengal?

[00:01:43]>> No no I don't you didn't get that sense.

[00:01:45]If it gets if if Anand is proven right then that is my that is a very very I would be very curious to understand that phenomena.

[00:01:53]>> Shaker >> well Baba will come back but with huge reduced number.

[00:01:59]>> Mhm.

[00:01:59]>> And that is not going to do good for TMC in the years to come.

[00:02:03]>> Okay. Uh Niladu Bhari just flown in from Kolkata. You can show our viewers your index finger. You have voted. You're a resident of Kolkata. Somebody zoom in on that please.

[00:02:15]Yeah, we're not going to ask you who you voted for. I think that's a fairly easy guess. But uh but what you're not you're not seeing this wave or this landslide.

[00:02:23]>> I want to know that this landslide that Dr. >> Fourth only once then Mr. Bak.

[00:02:33]>> I think it all depends on who you voted for. That person will win for sure.

[00:02:37]>> But what is your sense? What what is the ground situation?

[00:02:39]>> Zaka the BJP is breathing down the neck of TMC. There's no doubt about it. Mhm.

[00:02:43]>> But whether they can convert it into a majority or a land landslide is forget it. But whether they can convert it into a majority is a question we have to see on the fourth. Before that is very difficult to answer it. But uh they they're fighting hard. Both of them are fighting hard. TMC is not willing to let an inch go and the BJP is breathing down the neck of TMC.

[00:03:01]>> What about other states? Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Asam, Mr. Balin.

[00:03:05]>> See Tamil Nadu, DMK has lot of edge over other groups. Kerala I think left has ahead as far as Bengali is concerned Modi and Didi Didi has a landslide victory not >> as a landslide Mr. Arish >> Tamiladu as we all predicted the DMK will come again once again but there is a tough fight which has been given by the Vijay factor >> so you agree Vijay has given a tough fight >> of course there the ground report says that he should be garnering almost 8 to 12% of share comfortably and there is no doubt about it >> Mr. Harish sorry Mr. um >> Ailish >> Ashani >> sorry Mr. See I think uh we are winning Kerala, we are winning Tamil Nadu, we are winning as we >> as in Congress and allies.

[00:03:53]>> India we are winning and even even even in Bengal people are voting for change but when you when we speak about change I think PMC and BJP is pretty much same on the uh on the issue of law and order on the issue of corruption. So people are voting for change people are voting for the Congress.

[00:04:10]>> People are voting for Congress in Bengal.

[00:04:11]>> Yes. You will see on the fourth.

[00:04:12]>> Okay. Swati, we can look at the the voter turnout numbers, staggering voter turnout numbers both in the first phase and I think we're on track for almost 90% in this phase as well.

[00:04:22]>> Absolutely. You know what's interesting is that in almost every election there comes a phase uh where a little bit of slump or dip in the voters enthusiasm is reported for sure. Sometimes even weather decides whether they're going to step out in the first half or the second half. But look at these numbers and every 2 hours that the numbers got updated there was a surge till about 3 p.m. it's 78.68% almost 80% and we know that in phase one the total voter turnout was 93%. So everyone waiting to know if uh it's going to touch 90 by the time the final voter turnout is revealed. So as of now till around 3 p.m. it stands at 78.68 almost 80%.

[00:04:59]>> So what does that what does that imply?

[00:05:01]I mean, we're all talking about historic turnout, record-breaking turnout, something that Bengal has not not seen in the last 30, 40 years. If we are on course for another 90%. TMC would have us believe that people are coming out in record numbers because they want to prove that they are still, you know, voters, citizens, what have you. The BJP says this is an overwhelming mandate against the misrule of the TMC. Shharay has framed the contest in Bengal as fear versus anger. Mr. What do you think this high turnout you know what do you attribute it to? Well, this is this face too is her face you know this is her stronghold as we have been saying since morning out of 142 seats 123 are withinable already and the m factor in all them that we have discussed last two days all are in favor of mta here but at the same time there are pockets like north 24 paranas and parts of north kolkata where Modi held his road show those are areas where people can muster courage and come out and vote because this is big in this election is people are worried about the post poll scenario. What happens after the voting is done because there have been reprisals in Bengal. This we have seen in 21.

[00:06:15]>> Very quickly, what has been the highlight of the election campaign for you in Bengal?

[00:06:20]>> Well, the the campaign is that Mamuta has tried to shift her record of governance or not governance to to Prime Minister Modi and she's repeated the same thing. Big old pride, big old thing. But actually she has nothing new to offer to the people of Bor.

[00:06:37]>> I think she we've got a latest bite from her. She's just spoken right after casting her vote. Uh let's listen into what she had to say.

[00:06:52]>> CRPF anything on CRF violence is happening ma'am. This is because of CRP want to say on the post ma'am. Anything you want to say ma'am?

[00:07:05]This is because of CRP Dr. I mean she's been saying this right from morning in fact right from the first phase that the CRPF is indulging in violence. Sabah just said that if BJP wins Bengal it's the central paramilitary template to win a >> state on that then Anand can come in fact I'm told by sources because some people are talking that uh so the if the voter turnout is be above a certain level >> then definitely TMC is very comfortable.

[00:07:31]Secondly people some reporter on the ground should verify this apparently the BJP does not even have booth agents.

[00:07:38]>> Yes >> in many of the spaces.

[00:07:40]>> Absolutely. So that is how are you? So therefore what they have been given is a huge presence of central forces. the episode that went down with uh with a particular IPS officer from uh Uttar Pradesh which I think you ran in your bulletins >> uh that was given to them by an ally of the an opposition figure from Uttar Pradesh and they've run with that and that has also deliberately the Hindi wallas the Sharmas and all are coming that has also become a plank this morning it's being distributed all over >> you you would imagine that you know if there is paramilitary forces if there's extra security to ensure free and fair polls That that is a good thing. Right.

[00:08:19]>> Precisely. So you know when my good friend Sabah says that look if it was going to be a landslide for BJP then we would have to redraw the charts as far as you know so much of CRP of security for I think it is great. Uh this should have happened 5 years ago. Uh I don't mind a state or the country being garrisoned if the voter turnout is the highest ever. Now you know you can have three lakh security forces but if in their presence there's only 10% voting then yes it's a problem people are scared to >> so if 90% people are coming out yes that's great >> that's a vindication of of the fact that there are additional security forces >> absolutely >> all right I I believe a BJP spokesperson is joining >> yeah we have Dr. Nil Prasoon joining us spokesperson of the barty jantaa party Mr. Prasoon the voting ends in some time. What is your sense?

[00:09:13]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. First of all, I would like to congratulate the people of West Bengal for having reposed their faith in democracy and this time around the BJP, the tsunami of BJP is going to sweep the state and uh we are going to have a thumping wind because simply because of the fact that the persistent h you know the disenchantment that the populace of my beloved state has >> Dr. Prasoon, I'll tell you what the charge is. The opposition is saying that at many places you did not even have enough uh workers who could have you know worked as booth agents. So you you know took help from central security forces. No no no not at all not there has been a substantial improvement in the organizational structure. Look in West Bengal what what happens there is no normal anti-inccumby element out here to change the government. Normal anti-incumbency phenomena does not work like in other states. There has to be a tangible shift in the ideology, in the narrative and even in the emotional inclinations and all these factors have been attained this time around by the strong leadership and organizational structure of the BJP. We have been able to send the nar narrative amongst the marshes and there has been you know the atrocities against women. There has been you know almost 40 lakhs people they have to migrate 30 lakhs jobs have been lost 20 lakhs you know the pensioners and >> we'll come to the record of Mtab energy or the lack of it in a second but Swati you have the comparison of yeah the 2021 figures and also phase one and phase two figures in terms of the number of people who >> absolutely this is just to give our viewers a sense of what happened in 2021 as far as phase 1 is concerned the total voter turnout was 82.29% and this time in 2026 it's at 93.19%.

[00:10:54]Now the last time the highest voter turnout was reported in 2011 there was a Mamita tsunami a TMC tsunami. Will it be BJP tsunami remains to be seen. Uh 2021 phase 2 82.29% was the voter turnout till 3 p.m. And as far as the latest 2026 numbers are concerned. It is 78.68%.

[00:11:12]So uh yes it's a little bit behind what happened in 2021 in the second phase but looks like it will catch up and perhaps surpass that as well. Now the interesting thing and the important thing to underline is this is on a lower base. So at in 2021 you were 82% on some 7 crore voters. This time you're 90% or closer to 90% on less than that about 6 cr or voters.

[00:11:36]>> That is where there's been a lot of confusion. I have not understood. So when you do this is it are you basing it on the old voter thing or are you factoring that so many names have got off the sir?

[00:11:47]>> Yeah. Yeah. So that's what I said. It's on a lower base. It's a higher turnout on a lower base.

[00:11:51]>> The present election commission released data.

[00:11:54]>> Electoral roles.

[00:11:55]>> Electoral role data. That is the for 2026.

[00:11:57]>> The trigger is now it's gone up to 92.

[00:12:00]You're saying in the first phase?

[00:12:01]>> No.

[00:12:02]>> In the first 93% was the first phase.

[00:12:04]For the second phase till about 3 p.m.

[00:12:06]78 and that >> if you look at the gross number of voters, more voters have voted in the phase one than they did in those 152 constituencies than they did 5 years ago. So basically 92% of those who are still on the roles. Yes. Correct. Let's ones who are still on the road saying on a lesser >> the facts one cr voters are removed from the water please >> about 90 90 lakhs a lot of them are are debt the the adjudicated the non-adjudicated ones are roughly about 27 lakhs. We have followed his let me go across to our reporters as well. I believe we have >> we have Rajes joining us from Diamond Harour. Ridda from Bhavanipur. Shivam also in Bhavanipur. Bhavanipur is really uh you know many people want to know the number of Bhavanipur first. JBC obviously is under pressure to uh to you know to constantly I don't know feedback that he's getting revise his numbers. He'll be with us very shortly but Shivam sum up the day for us. Phase two polling high states battle Ma taking on Suendu Aditari.

[00:13:14]Well, exactly Pr and the moment from the very starting of the day be it seemed like it is going to be a very prestigious university, prestigious constituency because remember both Suendu Adikari and Mtab Energy were going to each and every booth. Uh ironically they were going to the booth to make sure that there is transparent transparency in the voting system. But when we are asking them about their counterpart going there, they are saying that TMG is saying that Suendu Adikari is going to intimidate voters. Suendu Dikari is saying that Mab Energy is going to intimidate the voters. However, we had a word with both of them and both of them have a different version when it comes to the the you know the urgency of a security deployment. We s we saw you know almost a clash breaking out when Suindu Adikari went to the Harish Mukharji area. There were protests against him. And there were you know the slogans of Ja Bangla and that time batten charge was also happening additional force was was you know was brought there and then things went under the control. So again since the morning throughout the Bahanipur we have seen huge crowd in each and every polling booth. We're still here. So you know the polling is supposed to but still you see a lot of people on the roads they're going to vote they're coming out to vote. The energy is high and again so is the uncertaintity about >> spoke to Mtab Banerjee asked her a question on violence today and Mtab Banerjee blamed the CRPF and forces said entire violence is happening because of BJP and forces in fact we can uh play that out >> to say on the post ma'am anything you want to say ma'am >> CRPF anything on CRPF ma'am violence is happening ma'am >> this is because of CRP want to say on the post ma'am anything you want to say ma'am I agree CRPF anything on CRPF violence is happening ma'am this is because of CRP >> let me also bring in Rita as well as Rajes into this you know Kolkata seats have generally seen lower polling compared to some of the rural parts of of Bengal but this time I believe Rita that even in the most urban parts of Kolkata city there have been long cues anecdotally there have been long cues of people particularly women who've come out and voted what does that team.

[00:15:24]>> Well, absolutely the first phase has seen a very impressive numbers and right in the second phase also till now we are seeing cues of people are lining up to go and cast their votes. Young voters have been seen in numbers. Today even the woman voters margin has been increased at the time when the trunal congress has been stating that this entire process of sir is a team game of the BJP and the election commission against the woman. It is an anti-Bengali and an anti-woman stunt. At that exact point, we see a lot of women voters turning up today voting and they said that they are voting for a better future, a better tomorrow, employment because these are the concerns that they're keeping in head. This time also remember that the home minister Amita while he was launching the manifesto of the Bhartka Jantaa party, the woman issue was a key pointer this time. So uh both the parties were seen for fighting over this issue of women security and safety along the sides of employment and other uh other facilities that are being noticed.

[00:16:21]>> The irony here is niladriaria you know what our reporters are picking up anecdotally women they are speaking to are saying we want change our you know men are having to migrate there are no opportunities here but if you look at historically the data over the last three elections women have been voting for Mab Banerjee 70%.

[00:16:36]>> Absolutely. Absolutely.

[00:16:38]>> Has something changed? Are you not picking up what our reporters are picking up?

[00:16:42]>> Uh I don't think so Zaka because today morning but is the fact that women are queuing up in a long lines. Today morning at 7:30 in my booth there were a long line of let's say half a kilometer and that full of women and they >> so is it for Lakshmi wand or is it for len that that's that's a question which can't be answered but they were saying that they have queued up from morning 5:00 onwards but traditionally women in Bengal have always supported mtab energy. Yeah, was 2021 data 70 17 70 to 70 they have always always supported and if you assume also that some portion moves away because of the BJP giving this increasing of the lucky bonder by 3,000 to 3,000 rupees I don't think so it will make a huge dent into the >> no the other concern is also and you not address you not addressed this enough Dr. Dr. Angatan this whole issue about women's safety whether it was what happened with Aji Kh and let's be honest I mean I don't think the Bumabani government exactly covered itself in glory the way they handled it what happened around Sesh Khali all of those uh there have been concerns and questions asked about women's safety and and she she needs to answer she's the incumbent >> doubtless uh you've mentioned the Arj what about Sesh Khali what about the Taliban style whipping of women uh you know by TMC leaders and supporters because that is there but can I just uh little bit disagree with what Dada has said I think in Bengal if you look at for example the economic parameters yes there are some issues uh that need to be addressed that haven't addressed flight of companies uh as a rate per all the registered companies is very high in Bengal compared to Maharashtra and Gujarat so that's a problem but otherwise unemployment rate of unemployment is below the national average if you look at other parameters.

[00:18:29]Uh you look at the freebies that are being given, it's uh race to the bottom as far as every part is concerned.

[00:18:36]So I think Bengalies are going to vote this time round on emotional issues.

[00:18:41]>> Now what is the overriding emotion?

[00:18:43]>> The overriding emotion is anti-inccumb lawlessness and ineffectual governance.

[00:18:50]>> So you he's basically saying the vote is against Ma Bani. Maybe not personally against her but certainly the system that she she runs.

[00:18:57]>> Can I just hold on uh talk about the gender parameters? There's one thing visually as a woman when I first went to Bengal I worked in a group there. It was the left group and uh there was no visible woman on the scene at all. So let's understand one thing that whatever her shortcomings and there was violence also in the left uh in the left era because they had to bring about land reforms and they did not rely on the bureaucrats to do it. There are various embedded historic reasons for why Bengal became violent. No, I'm not. I'm not.

[00:19:28]I'm just saying that visually there was no The thing about the Ma regime is not only is she there, there are just women all over visually and that does create a connection.

[00:19:37]>> She gets the highest number of tickets to women.

[00:19:39]>> Yes, she does. And she's given more and the highest chunk of women MPs and they're visible MPs. They're not just wall flowers. They're not just daughters and and you know they they talk they >> but these issues of law and order against women was it resonant on the ground or not?

[00:19:55]>> I'm sure if Arjik car happened now it would have had a it would not be good but it happened 2 years ago.

[00:20:00]>> Okay.

[00:20:01]>> So I just feel that there is a visual emotional connection there is politics is so male dominated. In fact the left is worse than even the right on that.

[00:20:10]Let me just say this, left is worse than the right because in Kerala they also they have put Shella to the side and given her an impossible seat. They could have and they've gone. So the the gender problem uh is is there acute and that is one way that Ma has at least that she just enrages the >> Let me ask a more fundamental question before Swati gives us another data point and that is that this the election results will change the fate of not just government but also the fate of India alliance. Look what happened. Rahul Gandhi campaigned against Mtab Banerjee.

[00:20:43]>> Yeah.

[00:20:43]>> Arving Ka was campaigning for the DMK.

[00:20:46]DMK is in alliance with the Congress.

[00:20:48]Rahul Gandhi was slamming left in Kerala. So Mr. Ayar >> well Rahul is looking ahead >> in a sense you know in a sense >> looking ahead or ahead to look behind >> to a nice vacation.

[00:21:04]>> No. Is he looking ahead or gets ahead?

[00:21:06]He he is looking at a time probably on some kind of a time machine into the future when DMK is finished when Mama is finished then the Congress will rise.

[00:21:18]>> It's amazing you didn't say that when the BJP is finished because clearly he's >> ALSO I MEAN OF COURSE he has he has been saying that just as we got finished in the runup to 2040 for which he blames the entire lot of congressmen. Yeah.

[00:21:34]>> Similarly, he thinks rejuvenation is possible only these parties. That's why he's very upset with the MK also despite >> they didn't campaign together and Rahul Gandhi. But but Swati, I think the big talking point both in the runup and I guess even on the day of the election has been around Sir particularly in Bengal. I remember meeting Mabanji 3 months ago. She had come with a whole group of you know people whose names had been deleted to Delhi. They made made she made them petitioners in the Supreme Court so on and so forth. What what does what does it tell you particularly in this phase what the SI deletions could actually result on the ground?

[00:22:06]>> Absolutely. So that's a big talking point on the impact of SI and the deletions and we're talking about 17 seats where the deletions are more than the victory margin in 2021. Of those 17 seats 12 the TMC won. These are the constituencies Ketu Grand for example where TMC's victory margin was 12,467 and votes that were deleted over 26,000.

[00:22:30]Then you have Nakashi Par TMC's victory margin over 21,000 votes deleted once again over 21,000. The difference is very less. If you say around 400 in Harra TMC won their victory margin was 3,652 and the votes deleted over 18,000. In Chapra, their victory margin was 12,124 and votes deleted over 17,000. There are other seats as well that the TMC has won. I I think we should flip to the last page because there are five seats that the BJP also won where the deletions have been more than the victory margin. These are the seats that the BJP won. And look at the victory margin and deletions. Deletions more than victory margin. So will this upset the arithmetic and for whom? That is a big talking point. small point here because I think there are about 15 lakh new voters that also have been added since the last election.

[00:23:20]>> So is that correct Ashwini G?

[00:23:24]>> You look at the amount of votes have been deleted 15% around 12% vote have been deleted in Bengal and across across different states. What is this correction of votes?

[00:23:40]This is uh this is simply collusion of election commission and we have seen that is also involved in this court is also involved because you spoke about sir Rahul Gandhi spoke about Rahul Gandh is foresight for that so Rahul Gandhi Gandhi Dr. Dr. Ranganatan has a question. Supreme Court is also part of this corrupt so-called collusion.

[00:24:10]>> Dr. Ranganatan, I don't think the Supreme Court is in collusion with it.

[00:24:14]But Supreme Court is definitely blind to it.

[00:24:16]>> Oh, >> definitely blind.

[00:24:17]>> That's a big statement you're making.

[00:24:19]Why I'm making it? Why I'm making it?

[00:24:21]>> Because almost hour to hour dayto-day hearings have been conducted.

[00:24:25]>> I'm telling I'm telling you with reasons why I'm making it.

[00:24:28]>> The Supreme Court is the last protector of democracy.

[00:24:32]for 27 lakh voters deleted on a logical discrepancy basis. That is the problem >> and you do not allow them to vote in this and you make a public comment that no issues we are open to seeing it the larger picture they may vote in the next election you have disfranchised them in this election out of that I am told 90% of the appeals which have been disposed of they have come back to the roles first phase 368 second total 1498 so if the trend goes out of this 27 lakhs let's assume Assume a figure let's assume they come back butusion what about the people who are the balance which is kept >> if they how do you know they were only you know your >> if they will come back if they will come back then where where have their rights been protected by the supreme court >> no there is a whole it's a it's a well chronicled uh ecosystem >> e thing that's happened the problem even people like amatity were missing what was the logical discrepancy if you want to just hear it that if your mother was 15 or if you had over five siblings then The computer flagged it dar then if you there was a spelling if you were a one day a with a >> if the lady got married and went to the surname then it was flagged so >> I don't think it is anybody's case that >> same problem happened with my wife as well I mean I I had to figure out where her father used to stay in 2003 in some place in Lacnau it was so difficult my brother my brother-in-laws did not have their main because of the competition >> there have been discrepancies no denying that But that is not to say that Mishra's you know >> no no no listen the problem was why was wellknown and I'm only giving you the story of well-known middle-class people who could go to social media and say our names are gone the problem is it was traumatic for everyone to produce those documents to have to answer these questions to have to leave your work to have to travel there we all know that from Delhi workers have gone back people it was a traumatic exercise the way it was done here and it's not the first time that the migrant workers have you know left the place that they're working to go back to the you know to the place where they vote. It happens in all elections.

[00:26:42]>> They went back because they were scared of their voting rights going because ration comes they think what does a person think they think Russian welfare citizenship it goes across communities. So that is how does a poor man feel he wants to be every document. How much of that was also fearongering that if you don't vote this time you lose your basic rights you lose your ration card you lose your card etc people thought that or people were were you know told to think that but but shar here's the thing you know for the last 6 months bananji has made sir a single big talking point in Bengal but the numbers there are only 44 seats out of 294 where the total number of deletions have exceeded uh the victory margins or the vote margins in in those seats of those 44 27 the TMC won even if TMC loses all of those 27 if you go by 2021 numbers they'll still be in power they still the the the issue in Bengal and this is the this is the climb that the BJP has to make in Bengal that the large proportion of seats that the BJP lost they lost by very wide margins they lost by more than 10% vote it's a mountain to climb and that's not going to get you know suddenly rectified or suddenly it's not going to turn on its head because of an SI exercise.

[00:27:59]>> Yeah, that's true. But you know, Mahabata's worry, Tridable's worry is the dead are gone from the list and dead have been voting in Bengal. I mean there have been several jokes where you know kids used to turn up at the polling booth and ask did my grandmother vote here? Then the I mean there's one joke which did the rounds. The polling officer would ask why you you don't stay in the same house? No. We are told she comes once in a five year and what's her name? Then they look at she has voted and gone because the removal of the dead and everybody knows it this ghost. You see three things have happened which is upsetting muta. The strangle mold has got loosened. See the dead wood that is the ghost waters are gone and number two pooling booths have been secured and last in 2021 election central forces were not even deployed. That is the reason why the wholesale transfer of officers cuz they would not deploy and this type of question is being asked where is the big police where is the Bengal armed police they are not there because they the Mohamad ensured they were not deployed and also the third thing don't forget in 2000 I mean 2021 we saw it in 16 also the TMC goons were incited to attack the central forces so that there WOULD BE INCIDENTS LIKE firing I remember one incident where a 14 year 15year-old old boy was uh killed that became a big issue and the fact that despite all this there is not a single incident where CRPM have not been out and they had to open a fire because that's the kind of incident she this is the these are recorded facts we've seen the violence that happened last time around or the time before the level of violence has definitely come down this time >> last election last election in what Mr. is telling it happened in Shal Kuchi where the central forces opened fire but this year with the deployment of the central forces we have not seen any violence and whatever violence has been there has been very sporadic and rare >> so that's a good thing right you should welcome it is zaka is definitely a good thing it's definitely a good thing for democracy it's a very good thing >> no but the CM is going around saying from morning that CRPF is the one that's indulging in >> what the CM what they're acting like agents of the BJP >> is trying to say is this she is trying to say that since yesterday night onwards All these CAPF forces have tried to block all the Simul leaders in their houses including the mayor of Kolkata.

[00:30:19]That is where she was trying to say because >> you're saying they they prevented uh people from coming out TMC leaders from coming out on polling day.

[00:30:29]>> Yes. Including including the mayor of Kolkata. That is that is where she she because the statement what you're showing is the statement of morning 9:00 that is >> I think there is something wrong about what Mr. No wonder there's a death of >> he's voted there and come back here to the studio to discuss this but he looks you're supremely underconident almost nervous I don't know whether because the left person is sitting with you or maybe you you know sense the sentiment on the drown sir you should be saying we are coming back fourth >> congress congress is welcome deployment of central forces fundamental question here see if the supreme court strikes down this constitution of sir what will happen to the election of Bengal at the outset and the the voter list is completely manipulated it is run by the nanesh kumar who is none other than the BJP election mocha that's how he behaves complete officials have been changed it's a unfair election conducted by the election commission of India >> no that's what the TMC is saying that that's their claim but but Swati you know on on the on the on the impact back seats where this sir factor and again one big theme one big sort of rallying cry from the home minister the prime minister has been this guspetia where are these guspatia >> absolutely so this is the Bangladesh factor in other words the guspetia plus appeasement factor that the BJP has been highlighting and going after the TMC for so there are 44 assembly seats that are along the Bangladesh border of these 44 in 2021 TMC won 27 seats and the BJP secured 17 seats. Now this is where the Guspeteria angle comes in where the the prime minister, the home minister have all said that Mabanji or TMC is rattled because their core vote bank will be impacted. We share a 4,96 km border with Bangladesh and of this 4,096 km over 2,000 is in the state of uh West Bengal and you know the then there's a lot of allegation on whether land has been given or not. sort of back and forth face off between BJP and TMC. 563 kilometer is the stretch that is yet to be fenced. All in all, this is the Guspetia factor that the BJP says is the reason why TMC is so rattled.

[00:32:43]>> Dr. Angatan, >> yeah, couple of points first on this.

[00:32:46]Let's just go just by the hard data. Uh the UPA fenced more border than the NDA has. The the UPA uh threw out more illegal Bangladeshies than the NDA has.

[00:32:59]But I I want to talk about what Sabah said and I I think yes there is no solution to for example fear mongering which many people are doing that people are going to Bengal to vote. Now according to our Indian constitution and law nobody can find out if an Indian has voted or not. So if you are not eligible to vote or if you are in one of those unfortunate ones where sir list you still keep on getting your ration you still keep on getting all the welfare because nobody will ever know whether you voted or not migration to thing is purely propaganda driven and purely driven by political parties to you just heard Mr. Balan he saying that you know we are almost in a totalitarian surveillance state Mr. Balan you know you were saying things about Janesh Kumar the CEC between Ganesh Kumar and Rahul Gandhi who do you trust more >> Rahul Gandhi >> you know what Rahul Gandhi says about Mr. religion he's strong that's election strategy comparing to that see Rahul Gandhi is a politician Dhumar is not a politician he's extra constitutional authority appointed by >> extra constitution >> how is he an extra constitutional authority appointed by >> just that's it self concept is in violation of representation of people's act it is in violation of the con >> is this the first time that sir is happening Mr. Balan look the s this is the first time s can be pressed into service any specific constituency not all over this is systematic no you see Bengal what I see is a political capital of India what Bengal thinks today the India thinks tomorrow >> if BJP comes to power in Bengal and trigger criminal disharmony it will affect Bangladesh he's right Bengal said goodbye to left Bengal.

[00:34:51]No, >> what's encouraging is the same that were being used 30 years ago when >> I think it would help the BJP leadership if they didn't mix up their metaphors, mix up the quotes of the great Bengalies of the past. If they didn't attribute, you know, those kind of errors, if they didn't call Sash Chandra, Shabbash Da, if they didn't do these bloomers, all of them the Badraokoque is full of.

[00:35:12]>> Okay, we have the voter turnout till 5:00 p.m. and I think we can open this up on the wall. It's almost 90%. So 89.99 there's one more hour of voting till 6.

[00:35:22]So 89.99 I suspect this might actually go up uh better than what the first phase was Swati.

[00:35:29]>> So the first phase saw a voter turnout of 93% bumper voting and looks like we are headed that way till about 5 p.m.

[00:35:37]these are the official figures coming in voter turnout recorded at 89.99 like you said. Yes we are touching 90% but once again remains to be seen if you're going to surpass the 93%. All in all bumper voting for sure.

[00:35:47]>> No. So this this this has to be free and fair. If nine out of 10 voters are coming out, surely they are unafraid to come out and vote.

[00:35:53]>> As I said, I think one must congratulate the security forces. Uh because this time round, I think approximately the same number of the strength is the same as it was during the entire Lok Sabha election. I think about three 300,000 three lakh >> and if the voters feel that they are not intimidated anymore, come out and vote then congratulations are in order. I don't see the logic.

[00:36:18]>> So, so Sabba, how how does this how does this increased voter turnout fit in with this whole fear-mongering that oh your ration card will be taken away?

[00:36:26]>> I it's not fear-mongering to to imagine that people most people are not sitting there with cell phones. Have you seen a poor worker navigate a KYC? It is a I've written about these things. People struggle with the digitized age because many of our labor workers are not uh are not savvy. They try but uh you know whatever it is. So this is fear of losing something which gives you an identity where through which you can get ration through which you imagine how we are. So what does it mean? So the 90% turnout means that they're afraid.

[00:37:01]>> So let me finish people are going back to vote and more people are coming out to vote to ensure that their vote is registered and they are registered. That is a big part of saying that this is an existential crisis.

[00:37:13]>> Your vote has been registered. So people must know that if you have voted it does not guarantee you ration because that's a disparate card. I mean this is just logic >> but people do think like that and we all know it. You can try and make a point here. We know everybody here knows if you have any experience of dealing with workers you should know how people >> ma'am it's okay for the worker to think why are mainstream political leaders you know perpetuating that point. You know let >> you are aware that people were picked up in Delhi Bangla speakers. You are aware that cases went to the Supreme Court.

[00:37:46]Nobody's perpetuating. I'm just offering you facts. People fled Noida. People fled parts of good >> and the facts are in black and white.

[00:37:54]The numbers on the screen. Let's look at the comparison quickly.

[00:37:57]>> All right. So, since we have the latest, let's do a quick comparison of what the phase 2 voter turnout was in 2021. And uh at the moment, it stands at 89.99%.

[00:38:07]Let's take the comparison graphics. Here it is on the big screen. In 2021, it was 82.2. 29% and till 5:00 p.m. 2026 89.99%.

[00:38:18]So all in all a festival of democracy being celebrated by the voters but Mab Banerjee has said that democracy is under attack.

[00:38:25]>> So what this essentially means and I I want to once again underline this is on a lower base. Uh fewer electors were present in 2026 compared to 2021. But despite that, the fact is if at 5:00 p.m. it's already 7% higher than 2021, by 6 p.m. when voting closes, I suspect it will be 10% more. Which means which means and I want to get Dr. Prasoon also into this. Which means for every 10 voters who voted in 2021, there is an extra voter who's voting in actual count, forget about turnout, in actual count. Okay, we don't have Dr. Prasoon, but but some that's what it means. One extra voter has been added for every 10 voters. The way you've described it tells the story. You you've said it. We have less voters >> but we have more voting among those who are still voting. Right. Yes. Naturally voters are being cut off. If you heard here that oh half the studios are about to go in Noa just hypothetically the people will go rushing and try and say no we are there. That is what is happening. Simple. You know >> I'm sorry we don't have less voters. We just have less bogus voters and we have 15 one second let me finish. We have 15 lakh more voters who've been added above 18. So is that a fallacy to say that we have less voters and amongst those people are voting that's mathematically wrong.

[00:39:47]>> No no no less electors in the names in the electoral roles. Dr. Barachar the names in the electoral roles is less voters. What do you mean by know people who were dead, people who moved away, people who NAMED MULTIPLE TIMES? THAT'S A FACT. I MEAN there are people who are alive.

[00:40:07]What is this move?

[00:40:08]>> No. No. What about people who died?

[00:40:09]People who migrated people whose vote is not THERE'S NO JUST DEAD. NO. One second. One second.

[00:40:20]Look, look, let's have a let's have a civilized conversation here. It includes those who are dead. It includes people who have migrated. It includes people who have vote in two different places where you were born and where you're working.

[00:40:33]>> The the attempt of the S was to clean that up. Dr. Prasoon, but here's the thing, Dr. Prasoon, you know, for for a very long time, TMC TMC has been their contention is that this SI exercise was to benefit you. Now you please explain to our viewers and to the panelists here why that is why you believe that's not the case >> after SI 24 lakhs voter this time around 24 lakhs more voter have voted in the first phase as compared to 2021 correct >> despite those delicious this is number one and TMC has been hopping that only minority votes have been cut and at the same time they are saying that matura votes have also been deleted so they they have got the self contradictory postures with regarding this so this is substanti appreciative of the fact that Sire has remained you know community and you know religion neutral to that extent. This is number two. Number three all those absent shifted deleted and dead voters they have been uh removed out or struck off the roles and the trinool used to have a gain of 3 to 4% of votes out of those because they would bring those you know dead souls from the heaven every 5 years and they would indulging them in voting and again they would be sent back to the heaven. Okay.

[00:41:45]So this practice has been you know this time around has not been there on the ground.

[00:41:49]>> It's called the it's called the divine vote.

[00:41:52]>> Yeah those divine vote you are literally telling that I have a question for you telling that 2024 election was won on the basis of 10% bogus voters choosing their voters.

[00:42:01]>> The BJP gone from 3 to 179.

[00:42:04]>> So 2024 election was won on 10% bogus voter in the country where BJP got total what 18 cr total votes in a population of 140 cr people.

[00:42:17]What are you talking about?

[00:42:34]BJP said that.

[00:42:42]No sir, there's one question that hasn't been answered. Despite the delions, if the if the TMC manages to hold on to Bengal, what will they call it? Will they congratulate the CC, the election commission, Mr. Batara?

[00:42:56]>> They will congratulate the people >> and despite despite a unlevel playing field, the people chose >> the people chose >> and if you lose, >> in fact, they may have >> if you lose the people's verdict.

[00:43:07]>> But I think we're getting some breaking news. We can go to that as well. I think something to do with security personnel.

[00:43:12]Yes, >> this is about the high security deployment after polling. This is what the home minister said. Now the breaking input coming in is that 700 companies to stay till further orders. Uh this is what the home minister said.

[00:43:32]companies will stay in West Bengal. This is what the home minister had also said.

[00:43:38]Mr. We know what happened after the polls and before the results came out in 2021. No one wants a repeat of that situation.

[00:43:46]>> Minister wanted militarize the Bengal militariz assembly I mean the tenure of the legislature is there till 7th.

[00:44:00]>> Yes. So the government has to be formed before 7.

[00:44:03]>> If it is a TMC government, these people will go away. If it is a BJP government, it does not matter who stays. It's very simple.

[00:44:10]>> But this is because of what happened last time.

[00:44:12]>> There's another situation. What if the TMC comes down drastically? Why have you transferred a governor whose went up whose matters went up to the Supreme Court? He was seriously challenged the Tamil Nadu guy on legally. The matter was there. Then there was a presidential reference. I'm talking about Ravi. and and then he was put to Bengal. There is some formula there in case but even to do that the BJP has to have been allegations in this election. There is a well doumented case of Bengal seeing lot of postpone violence CORRECT REPRISAL HOUSES ARE BEING ATTACKED homes have been set on fire women have been raped and this is to give a message that that they will remain there until further orders because there is no other thing because this is total comes to if you say 700 companies and each company is about militarized election sir you have a you know you have problem with the military but you know you're celebrating the maists less said better about you know your tribe >> that's a separate subject >> how is it a separate subject mist are protecting the environment >> environment by telling people tribes who are mauist are they the mafias or smugglers that's an ideology >> what does the military do sir the paramilitary the central forces what do they do they pollute the environment you feel police in Bengal are unfit the reserved police ports in Bengal are unfit are they extra are They're not fit to maintain.

[00:45:39]>> No sir, if that was the case, why why why in 2021 sir why in 2021 did we have such mass violence? Mr. Bara knows this.

[00:45:49]>> See Zakasi uh in India we have around four more than around five lakh five and a half lakhs of CAPF.

[00:45:57]>> CPF correct >> out of which if you take the calculation more than half is stationed in Bengal today. So what does the and that is what the CM has been saying that it is a militarized election they're trying I'll tell you what was the necessity prevented from intimidating voters THE CRPF PEOPLE NO ONE more thing see we have been talking in a half story >> why did the CRPF officers who were poll observers why did they go to that uh mayor of a person >> if there are five if there ARE FIVE >> BECAUSE THERE are five CPF here in this studio right Would we be intimidated?

[00:46:35]>> No. No. Dr. Dr. The problem with CF is that >> if the CAPF was doing only its job, there would have been no problem.

[00:46:43]>> So you are alleging CPF is not No, no, no. What I'm saying, please listen to that's a different matter. What I'm what I'm saying is this. That's what the allegations come that the BJP is trying to cap.

[00:46:55]>> There is currently intimidate voters.

[00:46:57]>> The TMC is putting out a story that 81 year old man has been killed by this.

[00:47:01]>> Okay. Okay. Okay, let's look at speaking. Let's listen in.

[00:47:28]Did you report it?

[00:47:50]200 we'll see at the what are the final figures more than 200 >> saying that she's saying CIPF is doing it everywhere >> yeah Swati very quickly in terms of the number of instances all right we're getting live shots again all right There's still some sort of scuffle. We don't know where in Bengal this is happening. But clearly there is some pushing and shoving. You can see uh people in riot gear. Police officers in riot gear also there trying to separate from what it seems two sets of people.

[00:48:27]All right. This is this is coming from not 24 paraganas.

[00:48:31]Swati >> testing since you say that these visuals are coming in from N 24 Paraganas like take a look at what happened in uh the last election 2021.

[00:48:41]Number of violent incidents reported 50 and that two in 24 Paraganas. Number of people killed in those violent incidents five. Then Kolkata 33 incidents of violence were reported in 2021. Two people killed South 24 Paranash 24 incidents of violence reported and three people were killed. So this is from 2021 and uh unfortunately this has been pretty much part of the election history in the state of West Bengal even when it was a left versus TMC fight in the state of West Bengal. The reason why massive deployment is in place.

[00:49:12]>> So the only good >> that is because Bengal has had a history where the the dominant political party controls the system.

[00:49:20]>> Yeah.

[00:49:20]>> That happened during left period that has happened.

[00:49:24]That is why this whole thing has been changed this time.

[00:49:27]>> Okay. We we'll take a break. Uh in about 30 minutes, a little over 30 minutes is when the election commission allows us to put out the first exit poll numbers.

[00:49:36]JBC Shiram will also be joining us on the other side of this break. We've talked Bengal at length. We'll also talk about what the Sata Bazar is predicting that and more right on the other side.

[00:49:45]Stay tuned to Times Now special exit poll coverage.