Tesla Earnings: What Nick Gibbs Expects and Stock Predictions

Añadido: 2026-05-06

[00:00:01]Well, I don't know. The market right now, according to what I'm seeing anyway, and of course you're per, you know, Nick, if you want to take a different position, the market could care less about the earnings. They could care less about bond yields. They don't care at all about the economic reports.

[00:00:16]It's rising and falling based on war talk only. And meanwhile, Tesla doesn't care about any of those things either.

[00:00:22]And it's married to the market. Um, now my big question, you could certainly respond to any of that, but my big question is, does all that for Tesla change tomorrow? Are we going to see a big spike over and above whatever the market's doing or a big drop compared to the market um after the earnings call?

[00:00:42]And if so, which direction and why?

[00:00:44]Other than that, I got nothing to ask.

[00:00:46]You got, you know, it's a little narrow question for you there.

[00:00:50]>> All right. Yeah. Um, okay. So let's break this down uh based on what I can remember everything you just said one step at a time. So first of all yes this is a very binary market at the moment.

[00:01:03]However that might have ended for a few days uh after tonight after the I guess prolonged ceasefire until I guess the Iranians can figure out who their leaders are however uh Trump phrased it. So that that takes a lot of risk off the table for tomorrow for Tesla. It also takes away a lot of the extra boost for tomorrow for Tesla. So um going so let's put a pin in now. I'll come back to that.

[00:01:37]>> Um so yes, the market right now is trading purely based on what happens with the ceasefire continuation all that. The good news is that it sounds like we're not going to go over there.

[00:01:47]We're essentially going to keep the blockade up and it's a ceasefire for for now. We're not going to go and start demolishing their bridges, their power plants, all that. I think that's good.

[00:01:58]We're clearly there's no need for that.

[00:02:00]We're clearly enforcing enough pain. And honestly, not to go into the whole, you know, the war and all that. I don't even think we need to worry about the uranium stuff at this point. We know where it's at. If we see them going after it, guess what we can do? We can attack them. uh just keep an eye on it. We got satellites for that. There's this company called Elon or his guy Elon Musk. He's got these satellites things.

[00:02:21]They they kind of can do some stuff. Um anyways, so I think that takes a lot of risk off the table for tomorrow. And if you saw uh post market, we actually started to rally a little bit into uh into the aftermarket. So we closed down like everything essentially went down.

[00:02:40]We were selling off. I think that was more so because Vance wasn't going there. All that stuff, right? All that yada yada. So now I think tomorrow might look a little different.

[00:02:50]>> Tomorrow might be a flat day to update in general. And I think that will probably be good for Tesla before going into earnings.

[00:02:57]>> Now the real question everybody's wondering, what the hell is going to happen tomorrow during earnings? Well, I'll give you Nick's opinion. This goes one of two ways. Look at that. That's what you came here for, right? up or down >> essentially and it all depends on the narrative that Elon and team give and I'll say this right now allow me to rebuke everyone who voted for some of these really bad questions on say you're not helping yourselves out at all as far as the share price going up and the market liking what they hear. You are literally shooting yourselves in the foot with a lot of these questions. Okay, so I'll just say that. So, if you're not happy with the results tomorrow, well, the vast majority of Tesla investors voted for some really bad questions. Thank goodness we have analysts. It's just my opinion, but they're just not qu harder three. This is ridiculous. Like, we got to grow up at some point. Grow up. I know I'm going to get lots of hate for this and all that, but it is not constructive to the company. It's not constructive to why you're invested in this company. You're not invested for your old hardware 3 vehicle. You're not invested for you to get FSD or unsupervised FSD for some shortterm little bit of gain because you might have paid 6,8 or $15,000 for FSD rather than the appreciation of your stock. This makes no sense. We would be better off truly understanding what's going on with the company and not rehashing questions been answered. All right, I'll get off my soap box. Let's talk about tomorrow. Tomorrow is all about the narrative. That's all it is.

[00:04:36]It's not about earnings. It hasn't been about earnings forever.

[00:04:40]No matter what, we know that it's not going to be too bad because, well, one, Tesla is still the number one EV sold in China. They've surpassed BYD. They are firing on all cylinders. And FSD is spreading. It's in Europe. Uh we're seeing it's about to be potentially more so in Spain, in Italy. Uh it sounds like there might be hints that China is about to or at least on the radar for allowing uh supervised FSD. All that's good stuff. And if that wasn't enough, we as we all know, we just launched uh robo taxis in Austin in Austin in Dallas in Houston. Let's get back to that in a little bit here, Randy. Mhm.

[00:05:23]>> So, going into this earnings call, the question is, will the narrative be doom and gloom? Yeah, we'll get there when we get there. Uh, production is hard. It only happens based on the, you know, slowest part of any supply line, all that, right? All the same stuff we've heard over and over. Um, yeah, you know, we're working on it. We want to be very safe. All that, yada yada yada.

[00:05:51]again, great. All the stuff we've already heard, expect the stock to go down.

[00:05:56]>> Okay, >> no reason for it to go up, it'll go down. However, if in my opinion, pretty conservatively, Tesla says we're making great progress.

[00:06:08]We're still on track for all of our goals for the first half of 2026.

[00:06:13]We just launched unsupervised robo taxi in Dallas and Houston. We're going slow at first because we just want to make sure that there's no issues, but we are going to be ramping up and we're going to be launching in a few more cities at the end of this month and then we'll add more and more as we get through the rest of this first half of the year. And Cyber Cab is set to start full production or we have officially started production and we will slowly start adding them into the Austin, Dallas, Houston, uh, robo taxi fleets. That's all I think they have to say. And we'll see 420.

[00:06:57]>> That's that's my opinion.

[00:06:59]>> The reason, let's take that pin back out from the Iran stuff. Had that not been kind of kicked the can down the road kind of thing and we would have gotten a deal yesterday at 800 PM, it could have supercharged a 420 to maybe a 430, 440, etc. So that's kind of what I was hoping for the upside, but we don't probably have that extra juice for the upside. We probably don't have that extra juice for the downside because of that. So that's kind of my take right now. And if I'm being honest, I kind of think that they're going to lean towards the optimistic side of things. I don't think that they launched in Dallas and Houston for no reason. I don't think they did it just for earnings as the narrative is out there based on the naysayers or the people who maybe are just frustrated with what the the pace of the roll out.

[00:07:48]If they were doing just for earnings, they would have done it supervised.

[00:07:52]There's no reason to not do supervised.

[00:07:54]They guided towards us that every net new city will have three months of supervise. Right.

[00:07:58]>> The fact that they chose to do it unsupervised in these two cities, in these two net new markets, to me tells us something important. It tells us that they're feeling confident. They are very optimistic about where this is going.

[00:08:15]And I think it's a huge sign that they can launch into a new city unsupervised rather than supervised. I'll say one last thing so we don't dwell on it. I know everyone's talked about Dallas and Houston, all that, but it's my first time coming on here addressing it.

[00:08:32]This is a very big deal because they are not they are not going from what we saw in Austin and California. This is the next evolution. In this next evolution, we are starting unsupervised.

[00:08:47]We're not starting supervised. We've essentially are starting out the gate without the training wheels. That's a big deal. Yes, it started off with just one vehicle.

[00:08:57]You know what? We just took the training wheels off. Let's relax. This is huge progress. Just like in Austin, we start off with just a few vehicles to see how things go, see how things work out, and then we can start to slowly scale. In my opinion, this is somewhat what they've been waiting for. They've known that they're almost at this point. They're ready to get to this point and they didn't want to dump a bunch of Model Y's into Austin with a bunch of extra headcount to just sit there in the passenger seat. Makes sense to me. And I think the other thing is they've been waiting for the Cyber Cap to be completed so they can start putting it into these different geos, these different markets. The truth is, my last thought and I'll I'll get off uh my my monologue here is that no matter what you think about the roll out, there is going to be a forcing mechanism for this roll out to go faster. And that forcing mechanism is the production of cyber cabs. At the end of the day, they're not going to be able to produce these cyber caps and just build them up and hold them in the lot. They're going to have to put them to work. And that alone should be the forcing mechanism. Even if it doesn't mean opening up new cities, at least putting more vehicles out into the existing robo taxi geoence areas.

[00:10:14]And I think that alone is enough to really start moving the stock at the bare minimum to get it back into the mid to high 400s. That's my thoughts.

[00:10:24]>> Okay. All right. So, let's uh I think that was a different take than I've been hearing from everybody else. So, that's good. That's what I was hoping for. Um, and so, and that's why we have you on this show is because, you know, sometimes you think outside the box. I I don't know if you know that about yourself.

[00:10:43]>> I don't. I I get told, uh, you're an idiot, you're wrong, and all a sudden, how'd you know? How'd you get that right? I don't know.

[00:10:53]>> Well, if you're not being told that you're wrong and an idiot, then you're not thinking outside the box. That would be the proof right there.

[00:11:00]So, all right. So, listen. Um, Larry Goldberg uh laid down a new rule on Friday. He said he thought, no rule, a new prediction. He said he thought the stock would go to 550 somewhat based on what happens with robo taxi, somewhat based on what's happening with Optimus, but mostly based on the opport of the the potential merger with SpaceX down the line. that that will be the big that'll be the big catalyst as we get close to the IPO as we do the IPO we get to 550 be be mostly because of that merger potential >> and what's the why behind that what's the forcing mechanism >> uh well the idea would be that that's a good thing that people would want that that people can see that uh he calls it like five shots on goal instead of two.

[00:11:57]Um, so you have five different massive TAMs instead of, you know, to two massive TAMs. Now, you could say Tesla has five secondary massive TAMs and two huge TAMs and SpaceX has three huge TAMs, maybe four if you count X.com.

[00:12:17]So, uh, he says that that just multiplies the number of ways that we can get to a 100red trillion to 200 trillion net worth or I'm sorry, market cap.

[00:12:27]>> Yeah, I I'll push back on the why. I don't disagree with the price target.

[00:12:33]>> Um, I think I think actually you're here. I'll say Larry's wrong, Ry's right. I think Ry's more likely to be right for the reason unless you change your reasons on the reasons why you thought we'd get to 55 550 by the end of May. And my opinion is that you said that based on robo taxis, FSD, cyber cap, all that good stuff.

[00:12:53]>> Mhm.

[00:12:54]>> The reason I don't agree with Larry's point is we know everything now. We know they're going to IPO. We know there's rumors about the merger. We're not going to get any new news about the merger.

[00:13:08]And if we do, it won't be right out the gate. So, if that were true, in my opinion, the market would be pricing in already.

[00:13:15]>> Okay.

[00:13:15]>> So, it I I don't I don't see it.

[00:13:17]>> Yeah. No, I've been saying for a while that I thought there was a an optionality in the stock price based on all of that that some people are holding or buying because they want to they want to get uh in on the pre-offer. They want to get in on the SpaceX thing. And this is a good way to get in on it >> by buying Tesla.

[00:13:42]>> Yeah, >> but you could just buy SpaceX >> later, but you won't get the IPO price.

[00:13:48]>> Yeah. And Okay. I mean, but you might.

[00:13:51]You never know.

[00:13:52]>> Yeah. Go down.

[00:13:54]>> Yeah. Well, it it I'll be honest, it likely will go down.

[00:13:58]>> Historically, that's what happens with the IPOs.

[00:14:01]>> Historically, more of them go down than up.

[00:14:04]>> Yeah.

[00:14:04]>> Oh, really? Okay. Interesting.

[00:14:06]>> Well, all right. I don't Okay, if someone's going to fact check me here, I don't know historically. I Yeah.

[00:14:12]>> Hey, Grock.

[00:14:13]>> Go back. Look at Palunteer. Look at Meta. Look at Nvidia. Heck, look at Tesla. Look at all the companies that have IPOed before. All the big tech companies. They surge and then they decline. Guess what? People ride it up.

[00:14:26]And guess what they do? Then they sell.

[00:14:28]And then eventually there's a a lockup period that ends for >> the people who were part of the IPO. And guess what they do? They sell. Uh, you know, so it's just kind of messy to get into any company that's, you know, coming out IPO. It's great for, you know, a quick gamble, a quick trade if you want. Maybe not gamble, maybe it's the wrong word. Well, it is kind of a little bit, but yeah, there's probably be a lot of FOMO, a lot of juicing in there, a lot of inexperienced people who are just be like, SpaceX, Elon, that's a no-brainer, right? And then all of a sudden, they're gonna be down 30%. Like, what the hell just happened?

[00:15:00]>> Okay. Yeah, but Okay. But under that analysis, under the way that you just described it, then if you got the preipo price, so you've got the opening price that morning and then it goes up before it goes down, you could literally end up with a better deal >> maybe, but there's normally like a lockup period. So, >> not for No, I don't think for the f friends and family.

[00:15:25]>> I don't know. I guess >> I don't think so.

[00:15:27]>> It depends how it's structured.

[00:15:28]>> All right. Okay. Okay. So, now >> by the way, I I think this SpaceX stuff is all like I think it's selfcreated drama in the Tesla community. I I don't think anyone truly cares about it. I don't think anyone's actually looking at SpaceX that way. It'll be the biggest IPO. Sure. It'll raise a lot of money.

[00:15:47]Sure. But the merger with Tesla, if it happens, it's not happening this year.

[00:15:53]>> Mhm. Mhm.

[00:15:54]>> It it won't. And if it does happen, then okay, great. If it doesn't, okay, great.

[00:15:59]Like, who cares? I It's I don't know what it is about Tesla investors, but it's like what's the exciting thing right in front of our face is never good enough. It's like we need to have the next thing, whether it's Optimus down the road or it's this merger coming up.

[00:16:14]It's like, guys, cyber caps are about to come off the line. They're already coming off the line. We just went to Austin or to why do I keep doing that?

[00:16:22]Dallas and Houston. Like, that's the exciting thing that's tangible, real, and right in front of us. Like, can we just like enjoy that right now before we start trying to add all these other I don't know.

[00:16:34]>> All right. Okay. So, so with that in mind, okay, I'm going to I'm not trying to convince you of anything. I had these up before I knew that that's how you felt. So, I've come up with I uniquely I don't think anybody else has done this.

[00:16:48]I've come up with seven ways that the SpaceX IPO and potential merger might impact the stock. some in a positive way and some in a negative way. And some of them have been out there, but let's go through them one at a time. Number one, >> my tennis racket, >> like a tennis rack. Yeah, >> I'm going to hit these away. Okay, so the option value to existing holders, you kind of just hit that. But isn't there some likelihood that there are some people that are big space fans, big Elon fans, they like both companies, and that they would buy some stock in order to get in on the uh the pre-IPO because preipo offering has a lot of magic to it that whether it's a good idea or not, it feels very magical.

[00:17:32]>> Yeah. Sure.

[00:17:34]>> All right. Okay. Now, >> inconsequential amount of people.

[00:17:37]>> Okay. Inconsequential. Okay. Now, what about a potential draw down u uh depending on what date is the last day to own?

[00:17:48]Um, so some people might be shocked. Oh, but but they and what did I even mean by that?

[00:17:57]>> I think what you meant was is there a cuto off date? you must own Tesla shares in order to have the optionality for the 30% in the SpaceX idea. I'm assuming that's what you were trying to say, >> right? And so would the would there be a potential that then after that date is announced that now all the all the uh drama has gone out of that then there could be a uh again maybe not a significant but some kind of a lowering of the heat under the Tesla stock.

[00:18:34]Probably not at that point because I imagine at that point we'll be so far down the road with new cities and cyber capab rolling out that I think it's one of those things we be like, "Oh my god, why would I get out of this? Oh no."

[00:18:48]>> All right. Well, that brings that that's good a good segue because the one people have talked about is a potential hit to the stock if some Tesla investors move money from Tesla into SpaceX after the IPO.

[00:19:03]>> Go for it. Do it. I think it's the stupidest move you could do.

[00:19:08]Let's take a comp like let's take a company that's about to scale the best AI in the entire world bar none for a company that it's exciting space they're a monopoly they're end of one just like Tesla and FSD is the end of one but the next 6 12 18 months of profits revenue generation are asymmetric as could be like go for it. You want to go spend another 5 years of what we just lived through with SpaceX, go for it. I'd rather get the payout right now.

[00:19:49]>> Okay. All right. But do you think it'll move the stock? Do you think it could possibly Do you think there will be money?

[00:19:55]>> I don't I I I think Tesla investors are smarter than that. I don't think that they're about to get off the the the horse that they've been riding for the last five, six years, right, as everything is happening. I I think Tesla investors are just way too smart for that.

[00:20:07]>> Okay, >> we'll find out.

[00:20:08]>> Okay, and if they're that smart, then that brings up what we talked about a minute ago.

[00:20:12]>> Is there going to be an optionality >> after the IPO? Will some people start to invest in Tesla because of the potential merger?

[00:20:24]Um, I don't think the merger is a catalyst for Tesla investors or or even other I I just I don't think it's a catalyst at all.

[00:20:35]>> What about the opposite? What about it being a negative because Tesla holders think it's a bad deal for Tesla?

[00:20:43]>> If you're a Tesla holder, you're not going to give up what you've waited for because you're going to have a merger like that. Again, that's Tesla investors are way smarter than that. Tesla investors are unique. They are people who in my experience are more financially savvy than most.

[00:21:00]>> Um they are contrarian in thinking. They go they invest against the grain. They are they are in my opinion what what gives retail investors the good name that retail investors have gotten over the past like 10 years. Mhm.

[00:21:25]>> So I think this whole movement of retail investors being dumb money to being the smart money really started off the back of Tesla investors and Tesla investors that turned into Nvidia investors turn into Palunteer investors etc. And I really think that comes from Tesla investors. And the reason I say it's it's it was such a pivot point because whether you're looking at Buffett or Munger saying diversification is the hedge against ignorance. Whether you look at Stanley Drunken Miller talking about how I would rather have all my eggs in one basket than my eggs spread out all these different baskets and make no money. I'd rather monitor one or two names. It that is what Tesla investors are doing. Tesla investors are uniquely investing and trading in the same manner as a Munger, Buffett, Stanley Dr. Miller, Elon Musk goes allin, right? It these are the best allocators of capital in the entire world and that's what Tesla investors are doing. So again, I don't think Tesla investors are I I think they're just I don't know cut from a different cloth. Okay. So, let let me spread it out just a little bit.

[00:22:40]We'll get a little more a little deeper into the weeds here.

[00:22:44]>> I'm gassing them up right now. Huh.

[00:22:45]That's right. So, so, okay. So, let's let's say we got I think 37% um retail right now. Of that 37% retail, there's going to be a lot of marginal players. So, these are marginal players.

[00:22:59]They're in and out of the stock. Uh they're hot and cold on the stock.

[00:23:04]They're looking for a quick buck. Uh it's not all these, you know, the way you describe the Tesla investor, the retail investor. I mean, there's a ton of those people, but they're not all that way. So, you're always going to have what I say I call the marginal impact. Every single thing that we do that has a financial outcome. There's marginal impact from just one more, you know, one more day or one more, you know, one more rainy day. Just that's when the hill falls down, you know. Um, so that so that's one aspect. So were you taking those marginal players into into account on all of those issues we just talked about or do you just think that there's such a large number of allin rabid fans that that it won't matter?

[00:23:53]>> Not rabid fans, just smart investors.

[00:23:56]Look, even Kathy Wood will trim here and there and that's prudent. I I think it's prudent. You know, even I will sell covered calls on Tesla when the time is right. That's prudent. And if my covered calls go in the money, I will let them get called away. Um, that's prudent because I don't mind taking some off the table. It's just good capital efficiency, right? It's a lot of this is a lot of the stuff that I I teach in my options crash course, but capital efficiency is the name of the game. So yes, there are people who are just in and out just scalping Tesla stock, but I don't think they move the needle. I I think in general Tesla is is pretty solid as far as how far it can go down. Now, don't get me wrong, Tesla can move. It's a very it's not I don't say very like everyone says it's very volatile stock. It's volatile. I don't know if vary is the right word for it, but I like even right now Tesla is not the most volatile stock right now. It's not.

[00:25:00]If you look at SanDisk, if you look at Micron, Western Digital, uh Seagate, they're all way more volatile. Hell, I think Workday is like the most volatile stock at the moment. Uh, so just my point being that it's going to move, but I don't think it's for the reasons everyone thinks it does. I don't know. I I think we're good. I think things are solid. I think Tesla investors aren't going in and out because of fear or being pissed off. I think the core of Tesla investors that keep the stock where it's at, why Tesla's able to have such a high PE >> is because they're not selling. And if they do, they're selling in a Kathy Woods manner where it's like, hey, we're 10% from all-time highs. Maybe we trim a little bit. And if we go up, great. If we don't, hey, I'm glad I trimmed a little bit. Now I can have some cash to be able to buy some more. Right? That's just good capital management.

[00:26:00]Okay. So, for 37% are retail, which leaves 63% I think I did the math right.

[00:26:09]It's right. It's right. You don't have to check it. 63% are institutional banks, funds, etc., etc. Um, are any of them because they're not going to be the rabbid I'm sorry to use that term again.

[00:26:23]>> You're you're missing Elon, Kimble. Um, >> oh that's >> they own a good Yeah, they own a good part of of Tesla.

[00:26:32]>> Ron Baron is probably insider too, right?

[00:26:35]>> Yeah. Well, I mean that's fine. Throw them in the other bucket, right?

[00:26:39]>> You can throw them in the other bucket and I would say at least 25% of them are Elon loyals, you know? I don't think I think like was it Black Rockck or Blackstone? Obviously, Baron Capital, uh, Arch Invest, they're not as big of a name in the big scheme of things. Um, but they're going to stand by Elon.

[00:27:00]They're in that for the long term.

[00:27:02]>> Okay. Finally, in this subject matter, and then we'll leave it alone.

[00:27:07]Will this all this activity, all this uh excitement, all this biggest IPO ever, biggest uh biggest raise ever, all this concentration of interest in Elon over this thing? Will it just bring more fans to the table? Just bring more people in to buy.

[00:27:35]I don't know. I think what causes people to buy is seeing performance.

[00:27:41]So I don't think SpaceX does anything for it. Personally, I think what does it what will send Tus stock up is purely the >> execution >> the the the execution of the narrative.

[00:27:54]I don't think you need to see the P&L uh I think we talked about this last week.

[00:27:59]You don't need to see the P&L for it.

[00:28:01]You just need to see the narrative being executed. You need to see Tesla rolling out into more and more cities. You need to start seeing cyber caps going down your street. And it's like, whoa, what the hell is that? You need to be able to call a robo taxi at a reasonable time that's better than Uber. You need to be charging less than Uber or less than Whimo. You need to surpass Whimo with the amount of vehicles you have. You do those things, this is easily a six, seven, $800 stock. That's it. You just got to execute on it.

[00:28:32]>> All right. Okay. Um, almost changing subjects, but not quite.

[00:28:38]In breaking news, SpaceX just entered into a deal. Well, they entered into a deal, they announced it today with Cursor to build the best coding AI platform on or off the planet. Um, now they're they can either buy the company outright for 60 billion later this year.

[00:28:56]I don't know how long they have to make that decision. Or they can pay for the work the Cursor is doing for $10 billion.

[00:29:04]Um, and again, the goal is to make this amazing. I guess they're already started on it. They're already working on it.

[00:29:09]Um, so what do you think about this deal?

[00:29:14]>> How much do you know about what cursor is and what >> I don't know anything? That's why I've got you.

[00:29:18]>> Okay.

[00:29:20]All right.

[00:29:22]So, you actually don't know anything.

[00:29:24]>> I I really never even heard the name.

[00:29:26]>> Okay. Okay. Okay. So, the big ones out there are Cursor and Windsurf. These are idees. Okay. Um, IDE stands for integr uh in interactive integrate. I don't remember development environment. It's IDE. It's what developers use to to code. All right. To develop.

[00:29:48]>> So you got cursor, you got windsurf.

[00:29:50]They're the big ones. But they're both forks off of what's called VS Code. So VS Code's kind of like the foundation.

[00:29:58]So if you use Cursor, Windsurf, even Amazon has now called Kira. All of them are forks off of VS Code. And what that means is essentially their just think of it like their their their genesis their feel comes from VS code.

[00:30:16]VS code's kind of like the main IDE.

[00:30:20]So all these cursor, Windsor, Kira, all these these are ideides that are created net new spinning off forking off of VS Code. And so they feel very much like VS Code in many ways. They're they're a familiar tool. However, they're not like VS Code. They are built thinking AI native first. And so these different idees, they have their own internal AI, if you will. So they're not going out, they're they're not like using anthropic whatever. They have their own internal agents that are helping make decisions and package things and do a lot of cool little tricks for the developers to help them out along the way. So that's what that's what cursor is. It's just one of these idees. Um, so now that we understand that, so if you've ever seen like a developer's uh like screen and you see like it's all black and you see all this code and there's different colors and all that, that's what IDE is.

[00:31:28]All right? And so with that obviously the that screen you see right that is what cursor is is that screen that's a software tool. And then again you have Windsurf, you have Kira, you have VS Code. Um, there's a bunch of them, but inside of that, they have their own proprietary agents and AI that, like I said, are helping do interesting things, but they also have plugins. And these plugins can tie back to Cloud Code, right? That's from Anthropic or they can tie back to C-Pilot, right? That's Amazon. They can reach they can have a plugin for GitHub, right? So, there's all these like different plugins that you can use for it. Now again, cursor, windserve, curo, they have their own proprietary agents and AI internally that's built into the software. That's what makes it kind of unique to just VS Code, but they also have their own kind of setup. So like Kira from Amazon, I'm biased obviously, is more structured towards how software development actually happens and making sure that we're we're thinking through um spec writing and making sure that we're doing things in the proper steps. Whereas like cursor is more just kind of vibe coding feel to it. There's, you know, it's not trying to help you structure anything specifically. Um so so that's what it is, right? So it's just an environment where people can develop and as you can imagine within these idees there's a lot of coding happening and when there's a lot of coding happening we are able to get a lot of learnings a lot of mistakes a lot of vulnerabilities yada yada yada and guess what that does that's data that's important things that we can use to train and reinforce other models that we might build or develop and so that's kind of the whole recursive loop there. So hopefully that didn't bore anyone and lose your retention, all that. But that's what an ID is. That's what cursor is. I forget what your main question was.

[00:33:23]>> My main question is, is this a good is this a good deal? Is this a is this a wise decision? What uh is it I mean I know I've been I I've got my little take that I think that that X uh and XAI have been concentrating on the visual on I mean we know that because of vision with regard to the cars vision with regard to the robots we have data that nobody else has it's going to help us get to AGI but then on the other side of the coin we've got the digital vision aspect for movies and games and everything else and it looks like based on what Elon uh posts about the most is that they're really concentrating on making sure that they are number one in that realm. Now all of a sudden that's that's just me. I'm just saying me. Maybe that's right or wrong.

[00:34:11]You can talk about that. But now it looks like this decision would be to spend that kind of money to make sure that they're number one in coding. Uh if that's the goal, is this the way to get there?

[00:34:24]>> Yeah. So um let's talk about why that is. So X or now SpaceX um has essentially been blocked from using cloud code from Anthropic. All right. So, this happened I don't know like a few months ago and it kind of makes sense, right? Like it's your competitor. They're using your stuff to develop and and Elon said, "You know what? This is good for us. We shouldn't be using them anyways." yada yada. I've been saying yada yada a lot today. Um I never say it ever. I mentioned George Castanza twice today and all of a sudden I'm yada ying all the time. If you know, you know. Um great episode. Anyways, uh I I don't know if it's a good move. I I think it's I think it's um I think it's not necessary. I think you could just partner with Cursor or Win Surf or Amazon Securo or even VS Code at this point. Um I I just I I don't think it's it moves the needle. Um, maybe there's something there that I don't know that I'm not >> quite getting or groing. Uh, but I do think that these other tools are better at coding than Grock. Um, and honestly, you know, you talked about the the vision and all that. I've tried so much to ask Grock to build out certain charts for me and it's amazing how like bad it can be. I'll ask it over and over. I'll tell it, hey, you put in the text over the bar again. Hey, your x-axis makes no sense. What are you doing? You like all these things and it just messes it up, mess it up, mess it up. I'll put it into chat GBT and it'll oneshot it. So, um, you know, like all these tools are somewhat good, somewhat bad. You know, I I I tried using chatbt to ironically do a little uh iteration to a code I had and I was trying to solve a recursive loop issue and chatb couldn't figure it out. I asked Grock Brock gets you in one shot. So, it's like it's all these tools have like sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. None of them are perfect.

[00:36:38]None of them are the best thing for everything.

[00:36:41]>> Sometimes I use a little Gemini, little tent, little Grock, little Claude and all of a sudden one of them just gets on one shot. you're like, "Oh my god, this is the one." It's like, no, just happened to be the problem state it happened to be able to be good at, >> right? Okay. So, then let's go ahead and let's take a look at the macro situation. And again going back to the war uh Donald said today uh on uh the he's not going to go forward with any new strikes on Iran and this is at the request of the Palestinian the Pakistani I'm sorry the Pakistani officials and then >> prime minister >> Yep. And he says uh um so they're not they're going to extend the ceasefire indefinitely.

[00:37:24]Um, I think you added a little color a minute ago that which I didn't see, which is this is because they can't figure out who's in charge and that the blockade is going to be impactful if they keep the blockade on.

[00:37:39]Some people say they've got 10 days.

[00:37:40]Some people say they've got 16 days before their entire system is going to collapse around them. Anyway, that's what I know. What do you know?

[00:37:49]What do you think? What do you think happens next?

[00:37:53]I I I think I think we're going to we're closer to a deal than what it may seem.

[00:37:59]Um I imagine there's a lot of internal rifts within the Iranian regime. I've been talking about this for a while. You know, it's hard to know who's the leader there. You know, you have certain people going to negotiate, meanwhile others are saying, "No, we're not." And then it's like this back and forth about what's actually happening. It's one thing to it's one thing to it's one thing to sit there and try to bluster and be like no what Trump's saying is not true but then you show up to Pakistan for the negotiations.

[00:38:40]Okay. So somewhat true you know. So, it's like whereas when Trump does it, it's more like, "Yeah, things are going good. Yeah, they're going great. And if they don't, all right, we'll just keep doing what we're doing." It's like it's a little different. Like, that's at least like, "All right, like he's kind of being optimistic. They're trying to put a good face." The other one, it's like they're saying both. They're saying, "No, we're not." And yet they show up. It's like, so that tells me there's internal conflict. It's not just like, hey, we're trying to bluster and puff puff out our chest. Like, you know, clearly there's certain people trying to negotiate and there's other people saying no to hell with them.

[00:39:19]>> And it seems like there's >> and honestly, maybe that's the best thing that could happen for uh for for this administration is that they kind of have a civil war, you know, divide and conquer. It's a >> t It's the most iconic tactic for warfare that's ever existed, the fight and conquer. And that might be what's happening.

[00:39:42]>> So if people are saying that Iran has 16 days, and that 16 days, of course, we're already like halfway into that. The blockade's been up for maybe six days, seven days. So we're getting close to the 16 days. But then other people on the other side are saying that the world is going to the econ the world's economy is going to collapse because of the straits of Harmuz being closed um in x number of days. And yet this morning there was reporting out that turns out China uh China didn't sit around waiting for this to happen that the reserves that China's sitting on in country in the in you know in country right now is like they've got like a couple of months of of reserves and they've still got some some stuff of course is flowing in other directions or other ways. So what do you think? Do you think uh there's any real what do you I mean what overall what do you think the economic risk is to the United States or to the world? It seems like that's going out of the I'm not hearing it in the headlines anymore.

[00:40:46]>> Yeah. All right. Let me let me just say a broader statement.

[00:40:51]>> Okay.

[00:40:52]>> What everybody says what everybody tends to create a fear narrative about is always wrong.

[00:41:02]If there's like anything that's like absolutely that that is always wrong, right? AI is not going to create this like huge apocalypse with jobs market.

[00:41:12]It's not going to happen. Um three years ago, four years ago, everybody's worried about Russia invading Ukraine, the bread basket of the world, the wheat and all that. All in podcast, like six episodes about this. Didn't phase anyone. Nothing happened. Nothing got disrupted. Um, you know this when Trump first got elected in 2016. Oh my gosh, the end of days, whatever. His finger on the nuclear button, all that.

[00:41:40]Okay, turns out he's like the the first president, I don't know how long that didn't get us into any wars. Um, even now going to Venezuela, it's going to be so disruptive, whatever. What are we doing? And hey, actually wasn't that bad. Um, even now, this has all played out a little differently than expected.

[00:41:58]So all these, you know, all this clamoring about the straight of horses being closed. Look, you've got the market is is way more resilient than people give it credit for. And the problem is, you know, how Elon always says that people think linearly and they struggle to think exponentially.

[00:42:16]>> I would say another a whole different application. People think serially and they struggle to think about how the market actually works, >> right?

[00:42:29]>> And the market is the most efficient, surviving, self-sustaining organism in the world. It is better than a cockroach. It is, it will find its own solution. Where there's a will, there is a way. And the market has the biggest will in the world. So if Horus is closed, don't worry about it. Oil will be found. Whether it's United States, whether it's Alaska, whether it's the Saudis pumping to a different, you know, part of the country out the Red Sea.

[00:42:59]Even if the Houthies close off the Red Sea, good luck with that, first of all, but they'll go around the Horn of Africa. Yeah, it might be a little more expensive. But oil demand or getting enough oil won't be the issue. Trump just had uh what is it? the uh wars power act or whatever it is to force people to you know keep pumping but the market has a way of solving itself. It is one of the most unique things about the market is that people fail to see that it's it's its own organism in many ways. It's a hive mind and that hive mind is going to make sure it that it survives. It's not going to it's not going to die. It it really is a living, breathing thing. And so I'm not worried about it. The market will always find a way. It always solves the problems at hand. And that's what makes a market.

[00:43:55]>> That is what makes a market.

[00:43:56]>> I'm I'm reminded of the best example I've seen of this in years, which is why we didn't have enough medical supplies during co Yeah. Co. Yeah. Every every third person that I did business with over the years is like, I'm trying to find somebody to make some masks for me.

[00:44:15]I'm like, what are you even talking about? You're not in the mask business.

[00:44:18]And then I started calling around to 3D printers because I was trying to make something for my sister that was unrelated to that. I called all like all these 3D printers in the United States and they're like, "Oh, no. We're up to our eyeballs and making masks."

[00:44:31]So, yeah. So, um it is it's pretty amazing how fast when there's a when there's a dollar to be made. Uh >> yeah, exactly.

[00:44:39]>> Yeah, there's a lot of people jump into that jump into that freight.

[00:44:44]>> Like ju just look at anything whether it's nickel or lithium or I mean just find find pick your poison. Find a place where the market like you said where there's a dollar to be made and watch how quickly the market will bring that into equilibrium.

[00:45:01]Absolutely. Okay.

[00:45:03]>> There's a reason why Rolex limits how many Rolexes they make because they want to make sure that the market doesn't, you know, sniff this out and create a democratize like at the end of the day the market seeks to get to neutral borderline deflation.

[00:45:22]>> That's what the market seeks for.

[00:45:25]And the only way you avoid that is through monopolies being the end of one like again Tesla's FSD or SpaceX or by gatekeeping and restricting supply like Rolex does, Louis Vuitton does, etc. Like and this means that it's manu it's manufactured, right? It's it's a self-imposed restriction in order to keep keep a level of scarcity, >> right? In the oil market, we don't have that because guess what? BP is not in corrosion uh with Shell, with Axom, with uh Dove Energy, with Tidewater, with I mean like go on and on. Like with the Saudis, with OPEC Nations, with Venezuela, with I mean they're all fighting for themselves. They're not in cahoots with each other.

[00:46:16]>> Yeah. Yeah. That's that's a fact.

[00:46:18]>> Hence, it makes a market.

[00:46:22]All right. Okay. Let's uh let's turn to the numbers. Um right now we've got Tesla up as you I think kind of pointed out at the beginning is up $3 uh and change up about 086% in the overnights.

[00:46:35]So you know what that if I'm if I'm right then then when we go over and we look at the general market the market will be up. So I we we'll test my theory, right?

[00:46:48]>> Wait. Okay. Hold on. Say that again.

[00:46:49]What's your theory? If Tesla if Tesla's up according to my theory that Tesla's just following the market around, then that would tell us that the the pre-market on the equities would be would be up, right?

[00:47:00]>> All right. I want to change something moving forward. If it's after 400 p.m., but it's not tomorrow, we are in the post market, not the pre-market.

[00:47:11]>> I see.

[00:47:11]>> All right.

[00:47:12]>> Are you Are you sure? I'm positive.

[00:47:16]>> I think about this every time we come on and you say that and I'm like, you know what?

[00:47:22]>> Well, I must have picked it up from somebody. Anyway, all right. So, >> Larry, >> so the post the post market. So, the Dow is up45.

[00:47:32]The S&P is up 47 and NASDAQ's up.55 in the post market.

[00:47:38]>> Very good. But I want to pause you there before we move on.

[00:47:41]>> Yeah.

[00:47:43]Um, what do you think happens with Tesla tomorrow? Like what's Ry's take? How does the earnings play out? I'm leaning optimistic. Oh, >> everyone's naysaying. I say it goes the other way. You heard it here first. Mark my words.

[00:47:58]>> It's a 50/50. So, if I'm right, I look like a genius. If not, hey, you were all expecting to go down anyways.

[00:48:03]>> So, so I don't have to I don't have to think it up. Think, you know, think it up right now. I I've said this morning that I believe that that Tesla whatever happens on Thursday, it will be at 410 on Friday on on Monday. It'll be at 410 on Monday assuming there's no war, you know, some major war problem.

[00:48:23]>> Why is that?

[00:48:24]>> Uh because I think to your point earlier that there will be optimism in the in the talk there'll be enough there'll be enough detail, enough information uh to cause the market to believe that robo taxi is going forward. And right now outside of the war, that's the only thing that the investing public seems to care about. They care a little bit about Optimus, but until we see V3, there's nothing there's nothing going to move the market till we see V3.

[00:48:51]>> Okay.

[00:48:53]>> So 410 Monday.

[00:48:54]>> Yeah. Which is close to >> Do you Yeah. Uh wait to what I said >> you said 420.

[00:49:02]>> Yeah. Yeah. It's just I It's either good or bad. That's it. It's It's all narrative driven. That's it.

[00:49:08]>> Yep. Yep. I agree with you 100%.

[00:49:10]>> I I want Elon to come out with Alex Karp energy.

[00:49:15]>> Do we talk about this last time? Do Did you go watch an Alex Karp interview?

[00:49:19]>> No.

[00:49:19]>> Or earnings call?

[00:49:21]>> No, I don't think so. No.

[00:49:23]>> Oh my god. Well, don't don't do it now.

[00:49:24]None of you go do it. Do not go watch an Alex Karp earning. That's uh the CEO of Palunteer. Oh. because you'll watch that and you'll be like, "Damn, if Elon would do that, man. He is he is everything you want." And I don't mean like he's polished. I mean like he attacks the shorts.

[00:49:44]>> He attacks the naysayer. And it's on video, too. It's awesome.

[00:49:50]>> It is seriously awesome.

[00:49:52]>> All right. Well, we got the 10-year uh moving a bit little bit back down again after spiking to 430 plus today. It's 429 as of the moment. Um, and again, it's been pretty interesting. The bond market has also been moving to the war only. So, the the the war moves and the bond market and oil market and and uh crypto and everything else seems to just all be kind of in this this uh uh you know, directionality, the way that you'd expect it to go. Um natural gas down 269.

[00:50:32]So that is the number one thing impacting CPI right now. It has come down so fast and so you know to such a low level that uh it will it will have an impact on CPI.

[00:50:44]Um >> yeah. Yeah. But I think everyone's looking through it.

[00:50:48]>> Okay.

[00:50:49]>> Also, by the way, now I know why you call it premarket >> because that's what CNBC has it for the futures. Oh, >> that's that's why you say it.

[00:50:57]>> I see. I see.

[00:50:58]>> It's the post market. And and those are the futures, by the way.

[00:51:02]>> And then Yeah. And then and then for Tesla and for everybody else, once you get into the Robin Hood, now you're talking about the overnights. So, it's like all >> market. Yeah.

[00:51:12]>> It's overnight. No, but it's overnights.

[00:51:16]Anyway, all right. So, gold is up because why? Because every day that the war is doing that things are looking good, the gold goes up.

[00:51:26]>> No, that's because Larry and Randy are wrong.

[00:51:29]>> Oh. Oh, well, my brother hopes so because he's he's into gold and silver and he's been very happy that he didn't sell what I said he should.

[00:51:39]>> Oh, good for your brother. Smart one, I see.

[00:51:45]So, gold up87, silver up 1.16, and copper up.26. Uh, copper has really completely uh taken back its >> Yeah, it's back over $6 again. Um, be interesting to see where it goes from here. I've been I've been thinking that copper should be on a tear because of the amount of it that's going in these data centers, but maybe maybe that's already priced in.

[00:52:12]Um, dollar mixed Bitcoin.

[00:52:19]Where is it? Here we go. Um, unchanged.

[00:52:23]It's actually up 105, but when it's only up 105, it's unchanged.

[00:52:28]As a percentage, it's only 0.13. All right, >> Ethereum. Uh, both of them though are doing quite well right now. What do you think? You think this is uh the beginning of the run if things calm down?

[00:52:41]>> Yeah, I I think in Gen I mean what what I call called it I think last week on on my channel investing against the grain uh that Tesla and the market had bottom.

[00:52:54]I I think it's still bottomed. I think everything's bottomed. I think I think we are I think we are in a V. I might be wrong.

[00:53:05]Who knows? Like I've been wrong before.

[00:53:07]It happens >> sometimes. Um no, I'm joking. Uh and I always admit when I'm wrong, too, by the way.

[00:53:14]>> Um for anyone who's listening.

[00:53:16]>> Um but I think we're in a 2025 style V-shaped recovery.

[00:53:22]>> Yeah. So, I I I think like it doesn't mean we're gonna go straight up either.

[00:53:27]Like this this annoys me a lot with people. Just because we're in a just because we bottom, it doesn't mean it it's just straight up all the time every day. It's not an elevator.

[00:53:37]>> Mhm.

[00:53:37]>> All right. We still go up, down, up, down, and it may be uncomfortable. Last year was the most hated bull market ever.

[00:53:44]>> All right. Everyone was always constantly panicked.

[00:53:47]>> Yeah.

[00:53:49]>> I think we're in a V-shaped recovery. I think we continue to grind. Just remember this. NASDAQ and S&P 500 just hit all-time highs.

[00:53:58]>> Yep.

[00:53:59]>> And that's where we're at.

[00:54:00]>> And we might be at alltime highs tomorrow again.

[00:54:05]>> Why tomorrow?

[00:54:06]>> Well, because S because S&P is sitting at 7135 in the post market.

[00:54:13]>> Yeah, but that's the futures. You're looking at the futures. I know, but still it could be, you know, we could easily be at an all-time high tomorrow.

[00:54:22]>> You taught me about the future last week. So, you know, >> what was that?

[00:54:27]>> You taught me about futures last week.

[00:54:29]>> I I know, but futures are still futures, right? So, it's >> Yeah, there tends to be more bullishness.

[00:54:37]Yeah. Yeah. What we talked about last week? Uh contango and backwardation.

[00:54:41]>> Yeah, that was it. Yeah. Yeah. All right. So, if people want to learn even more from you, when's your class? When's your open next open class?

[00:54:50]>> Yeah. Okay. So, let me Okay. So, for anyone taking the options crash course this April, this Saturday, if you don't have the link, check your spam folder.

[00:55:00]All right, people. Check your spam folder. Like, before you send me a message, whatever, go check your spam folder. It's in there. I have really good automation. It showed up. Your email just flags it because it's never gotten an email from me before. go check your spam folder. But my next app options crash course for all the students will be this Saturday. All right? They're going to leave the class and they're going to understand and learn how to take what I taught them put into practice right away, which essentially what I'm teaching people is how to be capital efficient, how to essentially, it depends on what you're trying to do, but really enhance financial independence. If you're like me, you've got a lot of Tesla shares. I have a lot of Nvidia shares. I have a lot of Micron shares. And I don't want to give up my shares, but at the same time, I don't want to wait forever for them to produce me money. So, that's why I trade options against them. And I do it with a very, very high success rate. This year, I'm up 90 like, and I've done almost a thousand trades so far this year. I've won 95% of all my trades, >> right? I share my P&L every single month with everybody. But that's what I'm teaching everybody else how to do. How to be capital efficient. How to make money. If you're not making 1 to 4% per month on your portfolio, telling you right now, you're missing out. By the way, Ry's never even asked me about this. I would love to teach him, but he hasn't even asked me, but I'm telling you, it's not BS. I teach you on Saturday. On Monday, you can go and try it out and see if Nick's full of BS. So, so, so Nick, you see that what I'm actually saying by the fact that I haven't taken your class yet and yet I'm pushing it every week is that I think you're so brilliant that I that I I'm willing to recommend it even though I haven't taken it.

[00:56:44]>> It's because half your half your audience has taken it and they all are seeing the results. And in fact, if you have taken my offices crash course and you have seen results, leave comments down below because I I it's hard for me to convince Randy that it's true. But >> no, no, I believe it. I believe I watched your numbers. I've seen I've seen you posting your numbers. Yeah.

[00:57:05]>> I'm telling you right now, there is no faster proof of concept than you take my course, you put into application.

[00:57:13]>> Okay. So, when's the next one? When's the next one?

[00:57:15]>> Yeah. Okay. So, the next one that people can sign up for is TBD. Uh, I've gotten a lot of requests. Uh, I just closed out May. I have one May 16th. I've closed it out. Um, that's not to say I won't let one or two people in if they really beg me kindly my DMs. But, I'm looking for a June date. I got to figure out when I'm traveling with the family. I need a little vacation here and there sometimes. Um, so I'm trying to find a date in June. I'll let everybody know as soon as I can. Um, if you're interested, just send me a DM now so I can put you if you if you really really want to get into the May 16th one. I I do have I always save like five spots. So, I do have five spots I always reserve. Um, but let me know and I'll only allow you if you tell me Randy sent you. Um, this is my rule. Um, but the next one will be in June. I'll I'll I'll announce that date uh with everyone on X or maybe next week when I'm on here with Randy. And then the zero day course that's still open for uh May 30th, but I'm probably going to close that out on Friday because it's filling up faster than I expected. Uh so that's kind of crazy. Uh but yeah, so again, the whole idea, I want to teach you how to fish. I'm not here to make you have to come back to Nick every time. I want to teach you a skill set that you can use for the rest of your life. It's going to be the best way you're ever going to use to acquire stock again. You're going to be able to make 1 to 4% per month on your portfolio. And you're you're just going to be way more capital efficient. It's what I do. I was able to retire my wife recently by doing this. It's it's going to it changes lives. And my whole goal is to help people towards financial independence. I I have like so many books on my desk right now that I'm looking at uh about financial independence. is something I'm so freaking passionate about. It's insane.

[00:59:06]One of the things and sorry to go on a rant here now, but I just it's something I just care so much about. I talk to so many people and I work with so many people one-on-one coaching where they tell me, "Hey, Nick, I'm wealthy on paper.

[00:59:20]>> I have no idea how to extract it except selling my shares and guess what I don't want to do? I don't want to sell my shares." I'm like, "Great. Let me show you. Let me show you the way."

[00:59:30]>> And yeah, anyways, I'll stop there.

[00:59:32]Okay. And of course, you can also go down and hit the link in the description below. Uh if you want to sign up uh that so or you can DM DM Nick and make sure you say >> that that guy with the weird shirts sent me.

[00:59:48]>> Say Randy Xandy Candy >> and then I'll know.

[00:59:52]>> Yeah.

[00:59:53]>> All right.

[00:59:53]>> By the way, hold on real quick. One of your viewers asked or told me recently that there is a bullish indicator that hap that people talk about in the comments when I wear a backwards hat that when people see that I have a backwards hat that it means that that things are bullish and they told me to ask you have you ever like do you ever read your comments and hear anyone saying about that because apparently it's a thing because they asked me I'm like like honestly I kind of stay away from comments on Ry's or when I'm on with Herbert or anything. I stay away from the comments cuz I say a lot of controversial things. I'm not trying to get arguments to anyone, but have you ever seen anything like that? Cuz I wore a backwards hat just for bullishness.

[01:00:33]>> Just for that. Okay. Yeah. No, I I read about a third of the comments. Um I'm trying to write uh one of these uh uh books about how to start a small business. Uh one book every two weeks.

[01:00:46]And so that's really zapping my extra time right now.

[01:00:49]>> Randy, have you written a book about starting a YouTube channel?

[01:00:53]Yes, that's that's actually next. I told you earlier today that the next one was going to be how to be a private detective, but I forgot. I'm putting the one about YouTube next. And then I just finished the one on music lessons. And this Saturday, I think the one on being a um a uh handyman will be coming out. I just uh we finished the cover.

[01:01:13]>> And I'm telling you, I use Randy to solve the mystery about how the choir lady died in the kitchen and he solved it.

[01:01:22]She she she had the monkey wrench under the sink. It it's just these books all tied together.

[01:01:32]On that note, to all of you out there, it's been great talking to you.