Player Prop Bet Analysis for the NBA Playoffs 22nd April

追加: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]What's up, kings and queens? It's your boy Dan from Darth Previews here to take you through the two NBA games. What matchups are like, which players, all my leans, my analysis. If that sounds interesting, let's sub to the channel cuz your boy's getting busy. Coming to you live from the west side of Sydney. We've got the free picks and the juice on the daily.

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[00:00:23]>> What is good ladies and gentlemen? Hope you guys are doing well. How good have the playoffs been so far? seen a lot of upsets. It's been relatively entertaining. I like what I'm seeing out there. Betting wise, it's a little bit difficult, but you do your absolute best, right? So, in today's video, take you through the two games. Um, Magic vers Pistons is up first. Now, in the last game, we saw a nice little upset.

[00:00:46]Uh, Orlando take the opener. They win by 11. In this game, we've got the Pistons minus 8.5. Before we talk about prop betting, it's always good to, I guess, figure out what's the game script going to be. And I think it's going to be close. I don't know if the Pistons blow them out, but I think the Pistons win this one. They kind of have to. Can't lose both of your home games, right? So, I typically lean to the side of some Pistons props. Um, given we likely saw an overperformance from a lot of the Orlando Magic, but there might be some value in some unders. So, let's talk about the Pistons first. There's two players that I'm strongly considering.

[00:01:20]First one is Kate Cunningham. I obviously had this as a lean for him to score his points in the last game.

[00:01:25]Finished with 39 points. His line is at 26.5 and my conservative ass was like, "Oh, I don't know how healthy is Kade Cunningham, right?" But he said it himself. He's feeling good. Played 37 minutes in the last game. Shot 50%. Saw the volume. The line's now been corrected to 28.5.

[00:01:42]It is a relatively high line. Can't lie about that. In his head-to-head games against the Orlando Magic, line typically at 28.5 anyway. couple at 26.

[00:01:52]So, he's seen a 28.5 line before. Still covered this line in every single game against the Magics. So, Kate Cunningham soft, not a soft matchup, but it's an ideal matchup. They're going to force volume out of him. I've said this a million times before. So, K Cunningham to score points uh still something that I'm considering. Interestingly enough, K Cunningham's assists could be some value there. He had 17 potential assists in that game. So, it's not as if he wasn't passing the ball either. This is just out of curiosity. When Kane gets 15 to 19 potential assists, what are we looking at? Over 10 assists in 21 out of 29 games, averaging 10. So, there could be some value around the assists.

[00:02:32]Rebound wise, not overly excited about that. So, I think the assists, the points, the points plus assists, um, both covered in every single game against the Magic. I think Kade Cuttingham to really drive their offense is one look that I like. The other one is on Tobias Harris. So, the Magic pretty much do well to contain everyone who's predominantly catch and shoot.

[00:02:52]They pack the paint, so it's difficult for Jaylen Durren to get busy down there. But someone who I like is Kate, not Kate, Tobias Harris. Tobias Harris took 15 shots in that game, which is crazy. He shot like [ __ ] but volume was definitely there for Tobias Harris. He's also scored very well against the Magic.

[00:03:08]He's probably the only player outside of Cade who can kind of create his own shot. He can do it in the post, do it off the dribble. Um, so Tobias to get some buckets against the Magic. He's got a relatively good matchup. Capable pull-up shooter. Saw the volume in the last game. I think this is I personally I probably lean more to Tobias than Kade Cunningham. Um, given the difference in their lines, but Tobias to get some points, I don't mind. The rebounds I don't mind. The assist could be a sneaky spot as well. So maybe it's a P look for Tobias Harris. Um, don't mind something about him. Jaylen Duran relatively quiet in that last game against the Magic.

[00:03:45]Only had four shots. It wasn't even foul trouble. They just really packed the paint. They priorit they forced the Detroit Pistons to beat them from the perimeter. So Tobias Harris got some looks. Duncan Robinson had a couple of looks, but not as many as you would like. So yeah, honestly for the Pistons, it's Kade and Tobias. They're the two that I'm actually liking. Um we could see an outline performance from some of the bench guys. Stewart um could hit some threes. Jenkins took quite a bit of volume. He missed so many shots. So there's there's volume opportunities for Jenkins as well. Um but for the Orlando Magic saw strong performances out of Paulo. France was good. Bane wasn't that great, but Bane's apparently been playing through an illness. Bane saw a lot of volume so he shot poorly. He's someone if he continues to see that type of volume could definitely cover. Uh even Jayen Suggs. Jayen Suggs took 16 shots in that last game which is quite a lot. Uh he's managed to score quite well against the Detroit Pistons so far this season. I think there is a matchup advantage in there for Jaylen Suggs.

[00:04:48]Whilst Beno has this great record against the Pistons like in terms of scoring points, his usage wasn't extremely high. Banero not overly aggressive. He made the right passes, created shots for others. So I personally think there's not one player from the Magic who's going to really run the offense. Not run the offense, but take the shots. I I honestly feel like they're going to distribute the basketball quite evenly between them all from Benro, Bane, France, and Suggs. I feel like they all get a bit of a taste, which is why I'm probably not likely to bet a straight pick there for the Magic to score some points. There possibly could be some value around the assists.

[00:05:23]Bane had five assists in that last game from eight potentials.

[00:05:27]Ben, I don't love his. He kind of generates a lot of hockey assists, but he had 11 potential assists. Even France, France had four assists. his line's 2.5 and Suggs, someone you'd assume would get a lot of assists, actually didn't.

[00:05:40]So, Suggs shooting the ball a lot more than creating. So, France, Bane, and Berro, um seeing difficult coverages, but forcing them to pass it out more. So, I think there could be some value around the assist for Bane and France. They're the two I'm probably thinking about when it comes to passing the ball. So, I've got those as lean. I'll go back to looking at them. Um, outside of that, not overly excited about any of the others. So, there's four to five looks in this game that I'm going to be spending a bit more time on. Then we've got Phoenix versus Thunder. Uh, the last game was a 35point blowout win. Um, there's good and bad news with that. The bad news is that it could likely happen again. We've got a 17 point spread.

[00:06:22]Sun's dealing with a lot of injuries.

[00:06:24]The good news is is we already seen the bow out and it's pretty much like the worst thing that could happen for player props. But if we're saying that's the worst thing, that means there's opportunity for a lot of these props to cash if this game is closer, right? So, one of the lanes that I have is on Shay Gildus Alexander to get assists. 6 and a half assists. It's at plus money right now. Open at 5 and a half, but it's been moved up. He finished with seven assists in that last game against the Suns, but I'm not not too concerned with that.

[00:06:50]It's the fact they had 15 potential assists. So, if we look at games where he gets 14 to 17, let's go 13 to 17 assists. potential assists over this assist line in 14 out of 25. So, the conversion rate not really strong there.

[00:07:04]So, probably the five and a half I absolutely love to death. 6 and a half is probably a fair price right now. Uh Jaylen Williams, I think him to get boards. Oh, I need to look further into the matchup data, but four and a half line, he had seven rebounds from 10 rebound chances in that game. I think there could be some upside for Jaylen Williams. He scored relatively well. The Suns prioritizing slowing down SGA. So Jaylen Williams gets to eat in that secondary role. Um, who else is there?

[00:07:32]And then Isaiah Joe, right? This is your man. If you think there's going to be a blowout, Joe's going to come on. He's going to shoot a lot of three-pointers.

[00:07:38]Made three out of eight in the last game. Two plus threes is plus money right now. So I think maybe just taking the two plus three-pointers could be the way for Isaiah Joe. He's going to get his looks. I think that's really interesting spot. And then for the Phoenix Suns, Deon Booker is getting the most attention. He still managed to score 23 points on 17 shot attempts. They contest I I read this stat that they contested 16 out of the 17 shots he took. All contestants. So difficult shots for Booker. Can definitely make them though.

[00:08:09]So I'm not saying to bet the under, but given how difficult the shots are for him. Jaylen Green taking difficult shots. Dylan Brooks saw the most volume.

[00:08:18]22 shot attempts in that last game against OKC. just covered this line with 18 points, but shot 27% from the field.

[00:08:25]Any sign of positive regression that Dylan Brooks is going to crush this line. This is however a road game, so I'm a little bit hesitant to bet on his points. But one thing that caught my eye was his rebounds. He had seven rebounds and 12 rebound chances in that game.

[00:08:37]Dylan Brooks not a big rebounding guy.

[00:08:40]But if we look at games where he sees at least 10 rebound chances over eight of 12, averaging 4.7, a little bit juiced right now, the three and a half. So, probably something I'm not going to bet, but there could be an angle there around the boards and with the potential injuries here cuz Mark Williams, Goodwin, Grayson Allen, all questionable for this one. Then obviously someone like a Royce O'Neal, Oso Igadaro, they're going to see more game time, more opportunities. But yeah, it's going to it's going to be a tough matchup. So, I don't know if I'm going to put money on the on the Suns on any Suns players in this one. Like unless I want the Dylan Brooks experience, which which might be a little bit heartbreaking, or I could just stop being a [ __ ] and I could bet some unders, right? So, it really could go either way. So, I think obviously the first game is probably a little bit more prop friendly because the game script can go either way and I think it still works. Whereas, if you're betting on this OKC versus Phoenix game, I really think the best way to do it is bet around a game script. like either bet that the Suns are going to keep it close or assume that the Thunder are going to blow them out and then stack your bets that way.

[00:09:47]Uh because if this game is close then SGA is going to get a lot of points.

[00:09:50]He'll get a lot of assists. Probably covers his rebounds as well. Like he'll dominate the stat categories. Uh Jaylen Williams will as well. Um and then someone like a Chad Homegrren has also done quite well. Okay. Okay. See the Suns are likely going to play a lot of small ball if Mark Williams is out. And if Mark Williams is out, they play small ball. that's going to unlock Cadet Homegrren because OKC will return the favor. They play small ball. Chat Homegrren biggest man on the court. Uh points and rebounds suddenly become available. Um but if you're leaning OKC blowout, then a lot of the bench guys like an Isaiah Joe, they come into the equation. Um and if you're looking at Phoenix, if you think the game's going to be close, then Booker, Green, Brooks, these three guys are going to be making their shots if they're able to hang. Um and I think they'll also there's an opportunity that rebounds. We looked at Brooks rebounds, Jaylen Green rebounds, even Booker on the glass. So despite getting pumped by 30, all three of these guys covered their rebound lines in the last game. If this game's going to be closer, you assume that they get more rebound chances. Suddenly there's some real value on Phoenix. If you think that they can hang, but if you think there's going to be another blowout, then you could look at taking an under for these guys potentially around the assists because if they're not scoring points, the assists are going to be hard to come by. So Booker and Green, they went under their assist line. Booker's assist line's only at four and a half, though.

[00:11:11]So yeah, I think just lean into the game script if you're betting on this OKC versus Phoenix game. I think that's how you extract the most value for me.

[00:11:21]I don't know. I do this with the Thunder all the time. I'm so like convinced they're just going to destroy everybody.

[00:11:26]But, you know, a lot of underdogs have been winning recently. So, could this be a game that Phoenix hangs with and suddenly there's a lot of value on the table for the Phoenix Suns player props?

[00:11:36]That I'm not too sure yet. But let me know down low in the comment section what your thoughts are game script wise.

[00:11:41]Phoenix vers OKC. Is it a blowout? Is this game close? Where is the value? And if you have found some value, drop it in the comment section down below. Help your fellow gamblers out. Let's let the community thrive. But for now, I haven't got any bets down yet. But these are the main things that I'm looking at trying to consider at the moment. But if you made it this far into the video, I just want to say appreciate it. I wish you guys the absolute best of luck. Let me know down below in the comment section what you are betting on. Let's cash out on this delicious two game slate on the NBA. I'll see you in the next one.

[00:12:14]Peace.

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