California Governor's Race: The Final Stretch

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:00:02]Well, here we go. The June primary is now just days away as voters will decide which two candidates in the governor's race will advance to November. ABC 10 state matters political reporter Jenny Hut joining me now this morning. Busy time for you covering the election and we've been watching the polls a lot here and it seems like three names have emerged here. We've got Javier Bera leading for the Democrats. We've got Steve Hilton at top for the Republicans and Tom Styer seems to be right behind him. What have you been noticing?

[00:00:30]>> So these three leading candidates, it's it's not new. I think for Democrats, you have seen Styer and after Swallwell's exit from the race, uh Basera kind of emerge as the leading Democrats and Steve Hilton has kind of maintained the lead as a Republican for quite some time now. So these poll results aren't new.

[00:00:45]Um what we see on the screens uh is is one of two most recent polls that came out the part of the final, you know, stretch of polls in the final stretch for the governor's race. So again, Basera, Hilton, Styer. Um, you will kind of see in some surveys a bit of a difference. Sometimes it's Hilton in the lead and then Bera in a close second.

[00:01:03]But again, the fact that these three names are consistently in the top is nothing new. The big question is obviously how will this perhaps sway voters as you know if they maybe haven't made a final decision or there or they're still unsure who to vote for. If they see these poll results and they see, okay, the numbers are showing XYZ is in the lead, maybe that could sway their vote.

[00:01:22]>> Yeah. And you actually spoke with an election expert, which I thought was fascinating. This this idea that there were so many undecided voters. Now, they have their minds made up, but they're not exactly casting their ballot because they want to see if their candidate can make a serious chance at the at the governor's office.

[00:01:37]>> And there are various terms for this.

[00:01:38]There's ballot hugging, ballot holding.

[00:01:40]Um Paul Mitchell, the data expert you mentioned, he called it it's like pearl clutching but with ballots. Yeah. So, and it's a lot of these high propensity voters, typically very reliable Democratic voters that are hesitant to turn in their ballots typically as early as they normally would. And again, like you said, that's because there is that uncertainty, perhaps voter fatigue, but really what they're engaging in is strategic voting. Even strategic voting is not new, but again, we are especially seeing that in this election, especially with Styer and Bera. these Democrats unsure, hey, am I, you know, in a in a place of luxury where I can vote for the candidate that I truly support and want to vote for, or do I need to vote for someone like Styer and Bisera, someone that they think and the experts think have a chance of actually advancing into November as to prevent a Republican on Republican um, you know, runoff, which is what Democrats have.

[00:02:30]>> That would be the worst nightmare for them.

[00:02:32]>> Exactly.

[00:02:32]>> And you speak to a lot of political analysts on this. Anything in this final stretch that that stood out from them? I mean the I think the big question that we all have been asking is what exactly prompted Bera to rise so quickly um after Swallwell's exit. Take a listen to Steve Swat actually. He's one of the political experts that I spoke to.

[00:02:52]>> What a comeback it has been for Bera and the Styer situation I think is extremely interesting because he has spent $200 million an all-time record in California just in the primary. what he has 15% of the vote so far. I think for Democrats in California, it has been pretty agonizing over the last several months.

[00:03:12]>> So you have Swat's insight into the Sty situation and both the uh Basera situation. So for Basera, I mean Steve Swat basically said sometimes it's just luck, sometimes it's just karma. I mean you have someone like Basera who's a very stable Democratic figure. He's been in politics for a long time. He has a long resume.

[00:03:28]>> Kind of the establishment.

[00:03:29]>> Exactly. Exactly. So, he's kind of a safe bet, you know, someone that knows how to do the job, and that's his pitch point, too. He as soon as he steps into the governor's office, he'll know how to take on a state leadership role. And with uh Tom Styer, what Steve Swat was mentioning is he has poured nearly $200 million into this campaign. That is a record in the state and yet he is third in a lot of the polls. So, the big question is again, has he reached his ceiling? And you know, only time will tell, you know, come come the closure of polls on election night. That's the candidates. As far as the issues that have dominated this race, we've heard a ton of talk about the cost of living, especially here in California. We see it at the pump all the time. Over $6 people are paying for gas, uh, housing affordability, immigration. What stood out to you in that respect?

[00:04:12]>> I mean, I I think it's really the specifics each candidate offers. And tying it back to Bera again, a big push back he has gotten is that he lacks specifics when it comes to a lot of these issues. Whereas maybe some candidates are perhaps over promising, right? I'm gonna resolve homelessness.

[00:04:28]I'm gonna I'm gonna make gas $3 a gallon, which is part of Steve Hilton's California pitch. Um, but again with Bera, he has lacked a lot of specifics.

[00:04:38]And what analysts tell me is, well, he is the front runner in a race. And when you are the front runner of a race, you want to be really, really careful because you don't want to promise something and then fail to deliver on it or perhaps kind of switch your perspective on it and then be held accountable for it. So, I think it is interesting for voters to see who has pitched specifics, perhaps who hasn't, who is passionate about certain issues.

[00:04:58]All of this is available on our website as well as the candidate campaign website.

[00:05:02]>> And again, just to to stress the the California system here, if our viewers are just tuning into this, uh there's been a lot of talk, you mentioned it earlier about the top two primary system and how this has worked. Um, you know, Democrats were fearing about being boxed out of that of the election. It doesn't look like that's going to happen because Chad Biano looks like he's lost some traction here. Uh but heading into November here, it looks like there could be a setup of maybe a Basera versus a Hilton or possibly a Basera versus a Styer setup, something like that.

[00:05:29]>> And if it ends up being the Basera versus Hilton, it's a Republican versus Democrat in a heavily Democratic state.

[00:05:35]So I think it's pretty clear what the campaign strategy of both the Hilton campaign and the Basera campaign is going to be, especially because Hilton, who you see on your screens right now, he has the endorsement of President Trump. So, he very much is that Republican candidate of the president's choice, right? If it's a Styer versus Bisera situation, it's a little more interesting because you have a very progressive Democrat versus kind of that establishment Democrat like you said, Jay, going headtohead.

[00:06:00]>> And do you see the Democrat as a lock there for the general election, it would be a huge upset if a Republican came in.

[00:06:06]>> And again, I do think it's Swallow's exit that really defined that. I mean, before that, that's really when you saw the alarm bells ringing for the Democratic party to the point that the the leaders in the party said, "Hey, if you are a lower polling candidate and you don't see a future for your campaign, you need to drop out. We can't afford to split that Democratic vote and allow two Republicans to slide in." May I remind you that back then, actually, Javier Basera was one of those lower polling candidates that was being indirectly pushed to drop out. So, had that happened, I mean, who knows where the state of the race would be right now. Uh last thing, come election night, um California takes a hot minute to get the results in because we do a lot of mail-in uh voting here. Uh we know that that Governor Nuome has been trying to tamp down any um misinformation in his mind that may come up. Um what should we expect on election night? Do you think that we're going to have results or could we be waiting a minute?

[00:06:58]>> What I'm hearing from experts, it's we we're probably going to know at least which of like if there's one candidate, sorry, let me rephrase that. top two system. So, two uh top vote getters advance into November. What I'm hearing from experts is that we'll at least know one of those individuals by election night. Um and maybe who the final second one will be. It could be a little tight.

[00:07:18]I'm not sure. Obviously, I think it's all a guessing game at this point. Um but that's kind of what we're expecting.

[00:07:23]All these candidates are holding watch parties of their own up and down the state. I can't disclose occasions, but I will be at one of these candidates watch parties. So, it's going to be a lot of excitement, a lot of fervor. You'll have the endorsement, people that are endorsing the candidates and also voters just supporting the candidates at these watch parties.

[00:07:38]>> And if there's not a result on election night, that does not mean there's anything nefarious going on or it takes a minute. It just means that they are still processing ballots like they have done for years now.

[00:07:48]>> And like you said, it's because of the mail-in ballot system. I mean, technically California up to as long as that mail-in ballot was postmarked by election day, county officials can receive that and still count it up to 7 days after. So it's not immediately you get everything on election night and you count it and we're done. California to really make sure every voter has a fair chance of being able to cast their vote, we have a lot of laws in place that allows for more flexibility. So that does contribute to the lengthier vote count time.

[00:08:13]>> I know it's going to be a busy night for you regardless, Jiting.

[00:08:16]>> Yeah, absolutely. Thanks so much.