⚡TRUMP Really F%$Ked UP This Time! What Happens Next Could be Disastrous w/ @among_the_ruins

追加: 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]Trump is in real real trouble. He needs to get out of there. Even if some kind of negotiations start, we've seen two sets of negotiations that ended in surprise attacks. When you look at the kind of assets that they've moved into the region, it does look like they are considering some kind of land invasion.

[00:00:17]So I think there is a a very high probability that in fact he is intending to attack. Virtually everyone understands that this was a disaster.

[00:00:25]Our credibility is on the line. Our role as the global hedgemen is on the line.

[00:00:29]and this could be a mortal blow in his own mind. He has to appear as a winner and it's going to be very very hard to pull that off if he just leaves right now. There's no conventional way to solve this. We've lost. We cannot lose.

[00:00:40]I think there's a very real danger that Israel or the US could go nuclear.

[00:00:47]>> World War II is already happening.

[00:00:49]>> This is a house of cars and it is in the process of collapsing right now.

[00:00:52]>> You're going to see an economic cr likes of which we've never seen.

[00:01:01]Hi folks, Canadian Prepper here. Today I am joined by Peter Ericson from the YouTube channel Conversation Among the Ruins. On the channel, Peter and his son discuss geopolitics in a way that is stripped of the usual punditry, posturing, and performative outrage that we've come to expect. Unfortunately, online is refreshingly authentic, inquisitive, intergenerational dialogue.

[00:01:25]Peter, like myself, uh is primarily an autodidact, intellectually independent and uncorrupted by the various industrial complexes, be they political, media or academic. Peter, welcome to the show. Today, I hope to talk about Iran.

[00:01:44]How are you doing today?

[00:01:45]>> Very good. Very glad to be here.

[00:01:48]It's great to have you on because uh like I said in the introduction, it's refreshing to see people just have conversations and uh it's very rare to see a father and a son interact on the regular like you and your son do on the conversation among the ruins YouTube channel that I would encourage people to go and check out because it's, you know, free of all of the special interests and punditry that we become accustomed to.

[00:02:14]And so I'm interested in what what your assessment is of the current state of the Iran war. And just to uh uh timestamp this video, we're at a point now today in which there's been a lot of buzz about a potential memorandum of understanding. Once again, >> it's Groundhog Day.

[00:02:37]>> Yeah. Right. Exactly. It's not like we haven't heard of this before. Yeah.

[00:02:41]>> Right. So, it seems like just a repeat of everything that we've seen. And just to contextualize what we're talking about, I'm just going to read a Trump tweet and then I'll let you have at her.

[00:02:51]So, Trump just tweeted out, "Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is perhaps a big assumption, the already legendary epic fury will be at an end and the highly effective blockade will allow the Hormoo Strait to be open to all, including Iran. If they don't agree, the bombing starts and it will be sadly a much higher level and intensity than it was before. Thank you for your attention to this matter, Donald J. Trump. So, what do you make of all of this hype?

[00:03:22]Yeah. Well, there is a possibility that there is some memorandum of understanding out there. What I what I've read is that that there are actually several versions and the one that was published by Axios recently is the American maximalist version and it's something that Iran almost certainly won't agree to. So there really could be okay remember a memorandum of understanding is not an agreement. It's not a treaty anywhere close to it. It's just the first step you know say that we are going to head in that direction. Um, so maybe there is something real that will be agreed upon. I'm just going to give, you know, the rosiest scenario first. It's not impossible. I mean, Trump is in real real trouble. He needs to get out of there. And perhaps he understands that he does have to make some compromises with the Iranians.

[00:04:14]That's not impossible. Okay. But like, you know, we've said before, this is Groundhog Day. We've heard all this before. We, you know, we get these reports in Oxios, you know, there's a an agreement is imminent. Trump, you know, tweets out something, you know, very positive, very optimistic, and uh yeah, but also contains the threat of bombing them. You know, this is we've seen this happen several times before. And so it could just be part of the same, you know, kind of game that he's playing. Maybe he's trying to calm the markets. You know, that's that's part of it. But then also we let's not forget that even if some kind of negotiations start, haven't we? In the last couple well not the couple of years, the last year we've seen two um sets of negotiations that ended in surprise attacks by the US. So even if maybe you know they are heading towards negotiations, the US may not have any good intentions here. It just may be part of the same old playbook that we have seen them use recently. Um, I'm sure the Iranians understand that and um are proceeding very cautiously. Um, so anyway, that's again that's probably the rosiest scenario is well, you know, the first one that maybe Trump is looking for an off-ramp, but then there's the possibility that he has no intention as part of the same old game and he's getting ready to attack. After all, we know that they have been positioning assets in the region and you know those kind of movements have preceded previous attacks. So I think there is a a very a very strong probab high probability that in fact he is intending to attack and is using this as a cover. Um a third thing possibility which is a very real possibility is that okay yeah he is looking for an offramp he actually is negotiating in some kind of good faith but will the Israelis allow him to do that? you know, we've seen previous efforts really blown up by the Israelis and we're getting statements from um Israeli officials, you know, essentially threats that maybe we just have to go this alone. And if you recall, it was Marco Rubio that said about, you know, this most recent war. He said that, well, we went into it because the Israelis told us that they were going to do it anyway. They used that, you know, that pressure and and the the administration fell for it. But apparently it's something that they've used with past administrations like the Obama administration and they didn't go for it. Uh but it has worked with this.

[00:06:37]So you know we see evidence that again the Israelis we know are are adamantly opposed to this. They have made it clear from the beginning they're not happy with a ceasefire and I think they would be just horrified uh by a deal that actually made real compromises. for example, um unfreezing of assets, lifting of sanctions, you know, that would be a nightmare um uh according to uh the Israelis in their current state of mind. And I just don't think that they're they're going to do everything they can to prevent that from happening. And they've demonstrated that they have tremendous influence over Trump. So, I I'm not saying it's impossible, you know, that we could that this off-ramp um is real and that Trump may really go down it, but there are a lot of reasons to suspect that it's not going to succeed.

[00:07:27]>> Yeah, it seems like there's been several opportunities for Trump to extricate himself from this conflict in a way where he would have came out looking like a winner in many respects, but he hasn't done that. And so it it seems like people are just so credulous right now to believe that right after just over the weekend, well, for starters, we we seen bond yields spiking. We seen uh you know, the price of oil approaching $110 a barrel for the WTI. You know, we seen skirmishes happening in the straight of Hermuz. Apparently, there was a drone that was shot down last night. There were ships that were hit.

[00:08:07]There were transits through the straight. There were attacks on the UAE.

[00:08:11]I mean, and then all of a sudden we got a deal. It's like again we're doing this again.

[00:08:18]>> Yeah.

[00:08:19]>> I just It seems that to no end, >> you know, we will fall for these same old tricks. And it's always the usual suspects. Barack Ravid of Axios comes out with a story for the 50th time saying the same old thing and everybody falls for it. And I just I don't I don't understand how like like in your opinion, what is the objective right now in Iran? Like because I think we have to look at that because until we know what the real objective is, we don't know when they're going to be sufficiently completed what it is they're they've sought out to do. What do you think the objective is with Iran?

[00:08:57]>> Yeah. Well, you know, first of all is to survive. You know, I think that's and they're doing a good job of that.

[00:09:02]They're holding together. There's no question that they would love to see these sanctions end and they would love to see the assets unfrozen. You know, there that would be a tremendous boost for their economy. And they would just clarification.

[00:09:15]>> I was asking you what the US objective was in Iran.

[00:09:19]>> Oh, I'm sorry. I'm sorry.

[00:09:20]>> We can get to the Iran objective as well.

[00:09:22]>> Okay. Right. Well, the US objective I think just comes um is just getting out of there, you know, with some amount of credibility with the Trump leaving, you know, um and able to maintain some sort of pretense that he succeeded, that he achieved something. Um you know, it won't be very convincing to the great majority of people, but it will, you know, it'll maybe it'll work on Fox News and that just might be enough for him to say that he Yeah. that this was a success and he's out of here. And um I think that really is the main thing, you know, with Trump. Now, I think that's probably true. You know, I w within the administration, within this deep state, I think there is something of a split here. It's just that um I think everybody, virtually everyone, you know, understands that this was a disaster. In fact, you know, this was a war that was launched against the advice of the deep state and, you know, even of Trump's adviserss. You know, that's what what we learned from the New York Times. And I, you know, I find that report very believable. Um, but now that it's happened, okay, you have people there saying, well, we just got to get out.

[00:10:32]You know, this this is cutter losses and run because this this has been a total disaster, but if we the longer we stay, the you know, the the larger the disaster grows.

[00:10:42]Um but on the other hand you have people saying no we can't we're the United States you know this is our credibility is on the line our role as the global hedgemen is on the line and this is going to could be a mortal blow we can't so you know yeah this is terrible but we got to figure some way out double down you know to to salvage the situation now you know I just hope that the realists win and that that Trump actually you know is goes along with them and then they don't listen to the Israelis, but there are a lot of reasons to believe that he's going to try some scheme. I mean, we I think we've seen him attempt things. You know, there was that very strange operation that was supposed to be just about rescuing the pilot. Many people have said that that didn't make sense. Um that it was probably part of some larger operation to extract the um the highlyenriched uranium. And then we had this project freedom. You know, it was just very bizarre. you know, there are a lot of um but it was some sort of another little goofy scheme, I think, to um that obviously failed. You know, it could never succeed on its own terms, but I think he's going to keep on trying to pull rabbits out of his hat, you know, cuz he just he he has to appear as a winner and it's going to be very very hard to pull that off if he just leaves right now.

[00:12:01]>> It seems though that Trump's supporters will believe anything he says. So if he says we won today, they would say, "Oh, look, we won."

[00:12:10]If he says, "Oh, you know, Iran's winning." Then they'll say, "Oh, Iran's winning." Like they're they're just kind of, you know, parrots for what he has to say for the most part. I mean, which is the case with most of the base of any politician, per se, but what was the initial objective of the US in Iran? I mean, was it regime change? Was it to get the nuclear material? because okay everything that they they claim now uh that is the objective they've already either done or there's contradictions.

[00:12:38]So well we obliterated the nuclear program but we still need to prevent them from getting a nuclear weapon. You know they they won't have a nuclear weapon for years but you know we we need to continue to do that. We've destroyed them uh economically. Their missile bases are destroyed but you know we still have to make sure that they they can't rebuild. I mean there's just an endless string of contradictions in terms of what the motivations for this conflict are. And then when I look at the the bottom line, there is a lot of people getting rich off this war. Be they in the military-industrial complex, the oil sector, I mean the US is making money hand over fist, you know. So I really have to wonder is there like a broader objective here that is that doesn't meet the eye that isn't just regime change and saving the 50 what are we up to now? 50,000 60,000 dead Iranians. I don't know.

[00:13:29]>> Oh, right. Yeah. Well, you know, it's actually preceding this conflict that the messaging was very confused. And that's something that, you know, my son and I commented on. I I really contrasted it to, for example, the Iraq war back in 2003. The messaging was very disciplined. You know, everybody knew what what it was all about. You know, it turned out turned out that a lot of that much of it was completely false, but they were very disciplined and they got the, you know, the uh both the establishment and the populist behind them on this this case. It was just seemed like, you know, sort of like an afterthought. You know, we heard different things, sometimes contradictory. Uh, at first actually, you know, it was just basically repeating the um Israeli objectives. You know, we want an end to enrichment. We want to u severely restrict, if not completely banan, you know, their missile program and and eliminate their their missile arsenal. and we want to end support for their allies. Uh that was that's where it started. And then you know it almost seemed like after the war was launched then we got this saying oh yeah we got to actually talk about America because none of that is really American interest. That's all Israeli objectives. So, we got this thing. Oh, yeah. They were a tremendous threat. You know, they had some sort of they were developing an ICBM and they could they were going to make a bomb in two weeks and, you know, shoot it across the Atlantic and I saved the world and um and then regime change because of course that's how this began with a decapitation strike. So, it's just been very, you know, incoherent from the start. Just there's a I think it's a reflection of Donald Trump's mind. Um, and just today we had Marco Rubio state that now the main objective is to open the straight of horm moves. He said, 'Well, great. You know, that's your goal. Well, it was open before you started all this. Um, it's not clear. I think in the end, you know, it it's something that happened. First, you have to look at the personality of Donald Trump. You know, he really is a megalomaniac.

[00:15:31]And that megalomania was was fed by his success in Venezuela. He felt like, "Wow, you know, I can do these things."

[00:15:41]And so he went into, you know, Iran and said, "Well, we can pull off something else." You know, you I won't listen to these naysayers. You know, we got great special forces or we got, you know, this incredible plan. We'll pull it off. And the Israelis too, you know, I think it's well established. They were pushing him.

[00:15:57]They were pushing him and telling him, you know, I think they understand his personality. You do this, you'll be you'll be great. you know, you'll be a revered figure in history, you know, both in Israel and the United States.

[00:16:08]And he went for it. Now, it in the end, it hasn't worked out for anybody. None of the objectives have been achieved.

[00:16:16]You know, they talk about these great successes like the destruction of the Air Force, the destruction of the Navy.

[00:16:22]Those were never listed as objectives.

[00:16:24]>> Yeah.

[00:16:24]>> And and you know, they really are not very important for this as far as this war goes. The Navy was never going to play a role. I mean, the Navy that does play a role was still there. We're talking about the speedboats, you know, they're still there. And actually, the statements about the air force are false. He did not. You know, we've learned um that even F5s were used in attacking successfully attacking military bases. Recently, there was a I guess when the negotiating team flew back from Islamabad, it was escorted by a number of of fighters. They still have an air force. You know, it's not a big >> a lot of buried in the they're in the missile cities. It's like a lot of the planes are inside the big >> so yeah I mean we have video of that.

[00:17:07]>> Yeah. And and then of course the missiles themselves are there. I mean they they still so these claims about having completely degraded their arsenal they're false. They they have uh I guess the most you could say is that the conventional navy is largely destroyed.

[00:17:20]But that was never going to be a factor.

[00:17:22]So they they really succeeded at nothing other than killing a lot of people and blowing up a lot of buildings. Um um the objective I think was for again just to to try to you know make something coherent out of this chaos is that that was for Donald Trump to be great you know to do something incredible like he did in Venezuela and it was also to you know it was Israeli objectives but it has actually blown up in the face of the Israelis too. you know, they didn't succeed in their objectives and now they're I think they have a they've gone back to just sort of well, we need to degrade Iran. We need to weaken that and maybe we can go back and finish the job later.

[00:18:03]>> See, I don't believe that the Iranians ever did pose a nuclear threat. I think that this is very fictitious. this idea that they would get a nuke and then they would immediately proceed to using it or that it would significantly disrupt the balance of power in the region. Like that's kind of one of the the central um pretenses for this conflict is that Iran would get a nuclear weapon. They'd become an indomitable nuclear power and the whole thing would would change uh outside the interest of the United States. But it seems like there's something moving them in this conflict that is so important that they're willing to to risk it all because I I can't imagine that the military planners didn't realize that Iran would be able to close a straight of her moves with drones. And I'm sure they even anticipated the mosaic defense. I mean, maybe they didn't, but it seems very strange that, you know, all of these uh that they would not anticipate a lot of these moves when they have >> very smart people in the Pentagon. I mean, I know a lot of people joke about how incompetent they are, >> but I mean, they got AI, they got, you know, I mean, they have to have war game these scenarios. They had to know and they have known that they would close the straight of Hermouth. So, maybe they just underestimated the resolve of the Iranians. Was that it? or like what do you think?

[00:19:28]>> Yeah. Well, the you're right. You know, they clearly are very smart people in the Pentagon in the State Department and they understood what was likely to happen and they've been there for a while and they've told, you know, they've advised past administrations, uh, don't do this, don't do this. You know, we say yes to the Israelis on everything, but don't do this because, you know, these things could happen. It could be really catastrophic. So, we you we know for a fact that the Israelis have been pushing for this. In fact, Netanyahu says himself he's been pushing for this for 40 years. Um, but you know, again and again, we kind of there were times when we were right up to the edge, but we never jumped off the cliff. This time we did. Um yeah, so there are people that understood that and and it has been reported in mainstream media that in fact Trump was told that they that they were there was a real pro possibility a likelihood that the straight of Hormuz would be shut down and he just didn't believe it. Um so yeah, you know, it's I think a lot of it is just on Trump and it's on those um Israel firsters who are not really concerned about the and I think to this day are not concerned about the consequences for the US and the world economy or the Gulf States. They just have this obsession along with Netanyahu of destroying their main rival in the region and they saw their chance to do it. You know, they maybe understood this could be the last administration where we have a real chance. So they pushed very very hard. That's that's my theory.

[00:20:58]>> There's another, you know, higher level uh theory that suggests that, you know, the United States couldn't just start attacking Chinese oil tankers. And you've been in China, you've spent time in Taiwan. Uh you've been a translator uh for many years. And it's interesting because the meeting with Xi Jinping is supposed to happen within a week. So, you know, that has to factor into the calculus here a bit. But the highlevel um geostrategic theory is that maybe they wanted to create a situation in the Middle East to make it so untenable because they can't just start shooting, you know, Gulf oil tankers, but they can provoke the Iranians to do that which would create this energy um crisis coming out of the Middle East that would prevent Asia from having access to energy and they could continue to try to monopoly ize uh the energy market, but also at the same time create this confiligration in the Middle East that would prevent oil from being exported to their chief adversary, China. And that kind of maps on to this idea that first they went for Venezuela and then the they had the Panama Canal before that and now they're going for the straight of Malaa. And how does this relate to what's going on in China? Because that is really the big the big dog, right?

[00:22:21]that everybody forgets about. Just because they're not in the media doesn't mean they don't have a$30 trillion dollar GDP and lots of nuclear weapons.

[00:22:29]>> Yeah. Yeah. The big dog that doesn't bark, you know, but they're they're there. Um well, I don't completely reject that as as a factor in all this.

[00:22:38]I think there, you know, clearly are people that are very focused on China, you know, we know like Elbridge KBY is, you know, one of I think he's the under secretary of defense. he has very high ranking official there and he is obsessed with China and he has been um you know looking at ways to contain in China. So, um, those people were there. I I don't think they were the driving force, but, you know, they they had a vote to cast and they may have said, "Okay, this is a chance to, let's say, take Iran off the table, you know, off the off the board, I should say." Um, you know, just like we got Venezuela, you know, Venezuela was supplying oil to to China and Iran, you know, 90% of its oil goes to China.

[00:23:22]And this um you know this would be another blow against China and we if we could gain control over this. Yeah.

[00:23:29]Okay. You know we just don't I I I'm speculating there because we haven't had any leaks really to that effect. Um but it does seem I you know I think probable that some people made that argument and they were a factor in in what happens.

[00:23:42]Now the thing is China is actually in a good position to survive this.

[00:23:46]Everybody's going to be hurt because, you know, when when there's a global economic recession or depression, you know, we don't know where we're headed to. Everybody suffers. You know, for the Chinese that means there's going to be fewer people buying their products. You know, that's going to slow down their own economy. Um but as far as like um energy, uh the their dependence on on imported oil is not what it used to be.

[00:24:11]They have made a huge effort to diversify their energy infrastructure.

[00:24:15]you know, they've got nuclear, they've got the alternative energies, they have and they have Russia, you know, which has their back and I think it's made clear to them. It's like, you know, we will make sure that you have what you need. Uh, so they are actually in a pretty good position. Everybody's going to suffer again, but they are in a relatively good position within the world and certainly compared to other Asian countries. Now the US you would say okay the US is a major well actually like the number one oil producer but we are in some ways we're incredibly we're more vulnerable than a lot of countries out there. We have just about what what we call the most oil sensitive economy on the planet meaning that for a unit of GDP the amount of oil that's needed is higher in the US than for any of their um peers. So, so you know, even though we are able to, you know, produce nearly enough oil for ourselves, you know, look at it, the overall energy balance, we're basically self-sufficient.

[00:25:15]Um, it's a mistake to think that we're not affected. We can see the effects right now. You know, I can just drive a couple blocks and go, you know, look at the the price there at the the the local gas station. Prices have shot up and they're shooting up and they will continue to shoot up. And why is that?

[00:25:32]is because the oil market is international and so we are you know everybody's bidding for the same oil um and uh we're in that bidding game and you know there are desperate Europeans and desperate Japanese and they're going to bid it up and so you know this price is going to shoot up and um we are being affected we'll be affected more severely in the end we're actually you can say one of the more vulnerable countries I mean that's very counterintuitive but it's it's true when you look at at our again you know dependence on oil for our GDP here.

[00:26:06]>> Mhm. Yeah. I I agree that we have um it's interesting that you you quoted that statistic about the uh the amount of oil per unit of oil per GDP whatever that ratio is. Uh that's an interesting way of looking at it. I mean China has a lot of energy in storage. They got about 1.3 billion barrels, I believe, and they have the diversified energy. Like you say, they're building solar farms like nobody's business. I mean, it's just shooting up parabolically. They're, of course, unrestrained in their nuclear uh generation, and they do still have Russia. That said though, they still are very dependent in the near term on imports from that region, not just from Iran, but from Saudi Arabia and from the Gulf States, which have of course have had their their uh oil, you know, obviously throttled as well. So, Argotchi went to meet with um I can't remember what the Chinese foreign minister Wangi is that it.

[00:27:08]>> Yeah, Wangi. Yeah.

[00:27:09]>> Yeah. He went to meet with him. That's it's an interesting overlapping set of interests because on the one hand China and Iran have shared interests but what Iran is doing is affecting China's ability to access energy. So how do you think that conversation goes between the Chinese and the Iranians at this point uh knowing that they are geopolitically aligned but at the same time what Iran is doing is at odds with >> China's economic interest out of self-defense.

[00:27:39]>> Right. Um yeah well I mean the short answer is I don't know. Um none of us do but we can speculate. I think first of all we can look at the fact that the ceasefire at least you know of these reports that we've heard there were quite a few um took effect in large part because of Chinese pressure. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:27:57]Clearly you know this is not in China's interest. You know, I mentioned just the fact that the recession affects them, but sure, you know, they want to have access to um to this energy that that uh that everybody else wants access to.

[00:28:11]They they're not the only ones, you know, they uh they're hurting uh along with everybody else. Not as badly as as many countries, but they're hurting.

[00:28:18]Yeah. No question about it. Um so, yeah, they would like to see this end. There's they understand that. On the other hand, um you know, I would just sort of like a maybe a counter data point was that recently the Chinese stated that they're going to ignore these sanctions that the US is imposing on refineries that refine Iranian oil. I mean, they're just outright saying, you know, we're not doing that. You know, we've seen a a more assertive China and I think a China that is increasingly understanding that the US is a serious threat to them. Um so so yeah they would like to see this end but they also don't want to see a US victory. They they want to see Iran to stand. You know I think they they realize it's in their interest that Iran survives this and you know and not in a greatly weakened state. So they are going to support Iran while urging them to find a way out. You know I can just kind of speculate on what what's going on. You know they talk and say like you know can't you negotiate and make this compromise? He said, "Look, you know, these people, we have really tried in good faith to negotiate with these people. We did negotiate the JCPOA."

[00:29:29]And then, well, first of all, the US didn't even honor their side even under Obama. You know, they didn't lift sanctions that they said they were going to lift and then it was torn up by by Trump. And then again, you know, the two recent um sessions of negotiation that led to the surprise attacks. You know, just agreeing to something doesn't solve the problem. you know, we'll be right back. If we don't get a real agreement, you know, get they don't make real concessions and we get some sort of guarantee, we don't get some sort of guarantee that really means something, we'll be right back where we are in just a few more months. You know, these people will attack again. And I I think probably the Chinese understand that.

[00:30:06]Um, so I think they're going to, you know, they they'll they'll certainly urge them to find some agreement, but I think they become increasingly realistic about the the difficulty of dealing with the US. Now, um, what what do you do?

[00:30:19]You know, this is the Russians even before the launch of the SMO in 2022 were calling the Americans agreement incapable. You know, that's like, I guess, a direct translation of a Russian term. And I think it's really true. So, I I just have very little hope that the US um can negotiate a real a real deal, you know, a real agreement with the Iranians. And it might be that in the end it's just like the the best we can hope for is that the US will at some point just leave. Trump will declare a victory. You know, it'll be obvious it wasn't a victory. He'll leave and then the the Chinese and and probably the Russians too. We'll move in and and just work out deals with the with Iran and with the Gulf States and, you know, with we'll get things going again, you know, but it'll be a whole new security architecture. I think that would be, you know, one of the better outcomes to this war. It's not an impossibility. And I think the longer it goes on, the more the greater that possibility grows. You know, right now it seems impossible. 2 months from now, I think Qatar and others are going to be talking to the Chinese, you know, when they just start to realize that the Americans are never going to get them out of this. And, you know, eventually deals would be made that are um acceptable to the Iranians.

[00:31:34]Again, possible.

[00:31:35]>> Yeah. That's I just intuitively I agree with like every your your entire assessment there, but I intuitively can't see them leaving now. I mean it it seems for them >> for their neoconservative worldview they view this as existential to >> the American empire >> and for them to extricate themsel now would >> empower the Iranians uh in ways that uh would probably you know see them become a real regional possibly global uh power. Um, it's interesting because China was in the process of of establishing a reproma between the Saudis and the Iranians and they were really getting them close and uh all of a sudden, you know, Iran is shooting missiles at Saudi Arabia like I don't know that just seems >> can't be coincidental, >> right? Well, you know, there's a kind of quite a controversy over Saudi Arabia's role in this whole thing. Um it's clear that they have you let the Americans use their bases to launch attacks and I think that's true of all the Gulf states even though some of the Gulf states including Saudi Arabia I know Saudi Arabia said oh no you know they they officially declared that they would close their airspace that didn't happen.

[00:32:57]Now there were these stories that were leaked about Saudi Arabia that said that in fact they were urging the US to launch this attack and a lot of people um believe that you know in both the mainstream and the dissident media. Um I just note that uh Chaz Freeman you know a brilliant man who was a Chinese interpreter for Richard Nixon um you know uh way back when the reproach month between China and the US occurred. um was later later was ambassador to Saudi Arabia and you know he can speak Arabic.

[00:33:30]He knows the region very well. He's dealt with these people. He has said on many occasions that's just a total lie.

[00:33:36]That's just is Israeli disinformation.

[00:33:38]The Saudi the Saudis never did that.

[00:33:41]They never pushed for it. And I find it kind of difficult to believe that they would. They you know they play this double game. They say oh no no no we're not part and then they let the Americans use their airspace. But you notice that unlike UAE, they have been kind of speaking much more reasonably. I think they're really they're looking at options now and I'm sure they're talking to the Chinese and you know maybe through the Chinese to the Iranians and in fact actually no there was a direct communication between the Iranians and the Saudis. Um >> it seems like the the age-old exploitation of Sunnis versus Shiites in order to get >> their economic interests realized like that seems like that's what they're attempting to do. like um and it you know speaking to Professor Morandi uh on several occasions he always seems to express a lot of animist towards the Gulf States for their abetting and and allowing the United States to launch attacks from their countries and and of course they have a lot of shady practices as is. I mean everything that we accuse the Iranians of the Gulf States do worse.

[00:34:47]>> Yeah. No, that's absolutely true. I was just thinking about that.

[00:34:50]>> Yeah. So, it's like, you know, it seems as though they're they're trying to to create a war in that region. Um, I was recently talking with Scott Horton and we didn't agree on much, but we agreed on one thing that it could be that they're trying to create like another Syria situation in Iran with just like a civil war. Or do you think that could be part of the objective is to just to throw the realizing they can't win just get civil war started?

[00:35:21]>> I think it could be and I think maybe the Israelis are thinking along those lines. You know I know early in the war there was talk about maybe an invasion by the Kurds u maybe an attack by Azarbaijan. You know again there's an Azeri population there. Um yeah, Iran is a very very diverse country.

[00:35:42]Uh but I think that the like the comparison between Syria and Iran is misleading that they're okay. Yeah. You look at the stat, you know, the the demographics, okay, very diverse, lots of Aaris and Baluchi and even, you know, Sunnis in the south and um Kurds. Uh but Iran is an ancient civilization. You know the these people have been Iranians these Azeris and these Beluchis and so on for centuries. They have been part of this you know they have they do have their own identity but they also have an Iranian identity. And if I if I don't remember incorrectly, I think Pestian is I think he's like at least part, you know, Turkman, you know, he he comes from a minority. And then and then I think the um the Supreme Leader also has, you know, has a an Azeri link, you know, that he's part of Zer, you know, it's just something. It's not like, you know, these are really separate oppressed minorities. they are part of of the Iranian um well the civilization but also of this government they've been brought in and uh so I think you have a >> so you're saying they have representation in government >> yeah right yeah so even yeah at the highest levels at the highest levels and then you know even the the the Jewish population there has their own representative um I I think the Iranians have done a good job to try to you know it's it's not you know again It's not recent. This is something that these people have been living together for a long time. So, they have a real Iranian identity. Now, in the case of Syria, you know, Syria was um just a is something that was drawn on a map following the end of World War I. And so, it's just has very the the historical roots there are very very shallow. These very disperate groups were brought together. And then the government that that oversees them or that oversaw them, you know, the Assad dynasties, my understanding is that it was, you know, um much more fragile. It was much more based on the personality, the the individual that that uh that ruled, you know, Assad.

[00:37:56]Again, Iran is different. The Iranian system has has deep interlocking institutions. You know, it's not dependent on one personality. And we saw that you know they took out the supreme leader and obviously they held together they have the IRGC you know they have um they have their parliament they have the president they have various councils and these you know all of these have a history they all have a role and um you can so it's much more than personalities that we're talking about we're talking about institutions and institutions you know that again are based on a real civilization so I don't want to say that it couldn't happen cuz you know Even um uh a country like Iran, you know, which where people have lived side by side in peace for centuries, even a country like that can fall apart. You know, we saw that happen in Yugoslavia. I don't think the roots were as deep there. But I I remember reading that a lot of these people, you know, Serbs and Bosnians and whatever, they, you know, under Tito during the communist era, nobody even really thought about it. you know, you had your Serb friends, you had your, you know, Bosnian friends, you had your Croatian friends, and it wasn't a big deal. It just seemed like, oh, we're all Yugoslavians, but then there was that collapse of the center, and then, uh, there were people that moved in to exploit the differences, and then, you know, you started to become afraid of your neighbor. So, I'm not going to say that it can't happen in Iran. It is just it's going to take um much more effort on the part of the Israel and the US to make it happen. I think, you know, they really would have to destroy the central government and they're a long ways from doing that. And then and uh you know, I think they're already trying to working to try to exploit, you know, the uh the differences that might exist, but at the present, I just don't see that happening. This is not Syria.

[00:39:43]>> That's uh a very insightful breakdown.

[00:39:45]Um best explanation I've heard of that comparison between Syria and Iran. So, thanks for that. In terms of Israel's role in all this, you know, it seems to me like I get like I mean Israel engages in aborant, you know, acts of of violence towards their own uh population, uh the population they've colonized, and Israel is just a really bad rogue state. I mean, I think we can all agree on that. That said, there seems to be something happening within the especially the MAGA movement where they're almost using it as a scapegoat or as an out uh almost like uh and this is really brought to the four by Joe Kent in his recent resignation which you know I commend him for resigning. At the same time, the narrative is now, well, Trump had his arm twisted to do this, and it's Israel's fault, and if only Trump can now wash his hands of of, you know, Israel and realize that, you know, Israel is the primary culprit here, then the innocent Americans who've just been bamboozled by the Israelis, >> right, are are uh are not at fault for all this. And I I first got this thought when I seen a video by Tucker Carlson, who I remember when Vladimir Putin jokingly uh was uh making fun of Tucker's CIA past as an agent in that interview that he did with Tucker. And then I seen a thumbnail by Tucker Carlson and it immediately occurred to me, okay, something's going on here.

[00:41:25]because the thumbnail had said something to the effect of Israel's war on Iran or something to that effect. It was just, you know, really, you know, this is Israel's fault, right? And had like two million views and I was like, hm, >> you know, I agree with that to an extent.

[00:41:41]>> But at the same time, it's also kind of convenient, isn't it? Because you have the US oil multinational corporations making money handoverfist with oil. You have the military-industrial complex now getting ramped up with a $1.7 trillion uh budget for 2027 and you have all of the other, you know, the banks and and uh all the market manipulation and you know, there's just so much money being made outside of Israel. So like it's like Quibono on this and then is Israel just going to be the the fall guy for all of this? Uh, I I know that sounds crazy because we know what they what they do. We know they want this war, but it also seems like they can conveniently deflect blame on them when this thing falls apart.

[00:42:32]>> Yeah. No, I I agree. You know, I I I share your assessment of Joe Canton and the others. Yeah. They're they're right to point the figure to Israel. You know, they say I I think it's a true statement to say that it it was Israel, the Israel firsters that persuaded Trump to do this, but that does not absolve him of responsibility. He could have said no.

[00:42:55]He's complicit. He chose to do it. You know, he's a grown man. And uh so I yeah, you know, I I'm glad that that Joe Kent resigned. you know, I agree with 90% of what he said in his statement, but I did not agree with the part, you know, in the end, he he made an obvious effort to absolve uh Trump of responsibility, and I, you know, I said, "No, I'm sorry, that doesn't work." Um, it's something that Charlie and I have talked about, this chance that uh, as incredible as it might seem, but that Trump might just throw Israel under the bus and say, "It was all them." you know, you know, I you know, I was I trusted them and made it, you know, I just made this I'm trusting kind of guy and I wanted to do the right thing, but they fooled me. You know, it's it's all their fault, you know. Um I don't think that's impossible. I won't say it's likely. You know, he's shown himself to be an Israeli first through and through.

[00:43:53]He surrounds some people himself with people who are extreme Zionists. His envoys, you know, Witoff and Kushner, and now he's added another guy to the mix. They're all extreme Zionists. So, we don't see any signs that he's moving away. But just looking at his personality, I mean, I think it's he is a man who is incapable of admitting an error, especially an error of this magnitude. Said, "Oops, I got this wrong." No, it's going to be somebody else's fault. And then when you have people, you know, former supporters of his like Tucker Carlson and others, you know, kind of providing him with this um excuse, um he might he might just seize on it. And I would say, yeah, it's not fair, but it could be the, you know, it could be the best that we can hope for. You know, I I would love to see us, you know, have a very rational break up with Israel, but that's not how human beings work. You know, it's just we have these backlashes and whatever.

[00:44:49]It could get kind of ugly and it would be unfair, but maybe that's the way it'll go.

[00:44:54]>> And I I did watch that episode when you and Charlie were talking about this and one of the things that came up would be that they would potentially accuse Trump of being an anti-semite if he decided to go against Israel, which like I agree with you, it seems very unlikely, but this day and age, I mean, anything is possible. Um, it would be very hard for them to to sell that to anybody, mind you, because of all of the sound bites and, >> you know, the the countless uh amounts of uh deference that he's shown towards Israel. But, uh, it's definitely an interesting perspective that you don't hear floated too often, but we're potentially moving in that direction.

[00:45:34]Mind you, he has thrown pretty much that entire troop that got him elected, be it uh Alex Jones or Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson, he's thrown them all under the bus now.

[00:45:44]>> So, that's not to say >> that can't come back, but >> it seems seems unlikely. Um, we have this visit coming up with Xi Jinping.

[00:45:56]What do you think this is about?

[00:45:58]>> Yeah. Well, it's interesting. You know, it's um we Okay. Yeah. We have a Roxy.

[00:46:03]Then we have Trump. Trump says he's going to give him a big fat hug, which is I don't know that she is looking forward to this. He's probably going to try to avoid that at all costs. You know, the the the Chinese are like the Russians. They they will talk to anyone.

[00:46:19]Sometimes, you know, I' I've you know, I I guess that's probably the rational thing to do. you always want to, you know, maintain these channels of communication. You know, there always things that you can get for your country. You know, often it's I don't think we half the time we even know the kind of deals that are made behind doors. And so I suppose, you know, it makes sense for for she just to to talk to him to see if there's something that, you know, that he can get from him. You know, I think he probably understands that Trump is in a real fix and he, you know, he may find, well, Trump's in a weakened position. We can there's I've always wanted this from the Americans.

[00:47:01]Maybe this is the time where we can give him a little something. You know, it won't be much, but he we can finally get this thing that we always wanted from him. I don't really know what those things are. You know, it may have to do with Taiwan. Um, or it may have to do with Iran. I'm not sure. Why do you think uh they're so persistent? Because at the same time that they're arming or engaging in this conflict with Iran, they're arming the Taiwanese. They haven't really backpedalled much on their plans for the Indo-Pacific. It seems they're still provoking China in many ways. Yeah. For me, I I get concerned when I see high-ranking officials meeting and there's no pre-work done, there's no plan. And I remember Putin cautioned about that uh and why he was reluctant to meet with Trump too soon because he he thought that you know typically if you that's kind of the final it's the end of the road really for diplomacy is yeah >> heads of state meeting right >> and so >> if you don't do all the necessary pre-work before that >> and it's just strictly for a photo op and you botch that then you know es escalation can happened quite rapidly thereafter.

[00:48:16]>> We kind of seen that with the falling out of the Alaska summit, >> right?

[00:48:19]>> Everybody thought, you know, this is it.

[00:48:21]You know, the war is going to end. I mean, I didn't because I knew it was going to happen. But, uh, you know, so I'm I'm a little bit concerned that if this is really just to go and do the exact same thing he did in Alaska or North Korea, should we not expect that there's going to be a flare up of hostilities on that front?

[00:48:39]>> Right. No. Well, I I don't think any agreement is going to come out of it.

[00:48:43]You know, the the so-called Anchorage understanding, you know, really it fell apart and it was for the reasons that you gave, you know, you really should have negotiating teams working out the details and finally the heads of state.

[00:48:55]This is an in a very incompetent administration when it comes to diplomacy. And that's why again I say that they're agreement incapable. I think the Russians have finally maybe Vladimir Putin was the only one in Russia who first still believed he could reach an agreement. It sounds like you know he's given up on that himself too and I'm I'm sure he talks to she about this you know constantly and I think probably she understands that too but but he may also give him the advice.

[00:49:25]Yeah, talk to him because sometimes you can get him maybe to back down on something like just to give you an example, there was there was all that talk of introducing the tomahawks to Ukraine and then following a you know phone conversation that seems to have been taken off the table. And so he said, well, you know, that is um to the benefit I think it's the benefit of everybody, but it's certainly to the benefit of the the Russians, too. And it may be the same kind of thing. and say like okay I I I know that the markets and others are saying that maybe there's some sort of agreement that will be reached there and it'll be the end of the Iran war. I no but but maybe there's something you know some smaller achievement or progress on some front that will come out of it and that's you know that's the reason why she is willing to to put up with this guy in his big fat hug.

[00:50:17]>> Yeah. with with the tomahawks. It was interesting because while it's true that they did prevent well at least for now tomahawks from going there, then all of a sudden right when this Iran war started, Iran Ukraine started firing these uh what are they called? Flamingo missiles at Russia's oil and gas facilities. And we haven't heard one word of condemnation from the Trump administration.

[00:50:41]>> Yeah.

[00:50:41]>> Um >> you've lived in China, correct?

[00:50:45]>> Uh yes. Well, I lived in China for just two months. I lived in Taiwan for two and a half years. You know, my wife is from Taiwan, but with very deep ties to China. Charlie lived in in China for 10 years, and he has a business in China still that he's running remotely from here. Um, yeah, and I was a Chinese English translator for 35 years. So, I've I have a connection to China. We'll just put it that way.

[00:51:12]Professor Jiang downplays the the possibility of any sort of kinetic engagement flaring up between Taiwan and China. I don't think he completely rules out a blockade or something like that, but what do you think the likelihood is of something flaring up on that front? I believe just yesterday the Philippines had received Tomahawk missiles from the United States and they were they actually done well they didn't just receive them but they did the first test. I think that was that was the story.

[00:51:42]>> Uh so what do you think the plausibility is of something happening on that front as a result of what's going on in the Middle East? Uh does China make its move if the United States uh gets demonstratively weak?

[00:51:58]>> Um well it's got to affect their calculations.

[00:52:02]Um you know they they have said again and again that they're aiming for a peaceful resolution. And I believe that, you know, they it's long game and I think that they see that time is on their side and they have a lot of ways they're pressuring the Taiwanese. Um and the Taiwanese themselves are I it appears are increasingly impatient with the kind of hostile position that the that the current administration in in Taiwan has taken you know visav China because they they have you know for obvious reasons you know China is very very important to them not just cultural but economic and um so forth. Now, but the Chinese have also said that they will um uh unify Taiwan. They will, you know, take back Taiwan by force if the Taiwanese government crosses the red line of declaring themselves as independent. And this with this current and the previous one too, they're both the um uh the both administrations are are um the current one, the previous one are both run by the DPP. That's a de democratic progressive party which has a very very strong you know independence leaning and and the truth is they want they consider Taiwan to be a separate country. They they really want to declare it a separate country but I think they've been told by the US don't go that far but they just go right up into the line. And I think the danger is that at some point um they could just cross that line. And and I think the Chinese are serious. Yeah. There are a lot of people who I think underestimate the the depth of the feelings that the mainland Chinese have about Taiwan and the US role in kind of helping Taiwan to mean to remain separate from China. They see it as a part of China and they have good reasons for for seeing it that way.

[00:53:53]Um, and they see this, you know, the the the current almost separate status of Taiwan as a kind of a um the last of what we call the what they the Chinese call the century of humiliation, you know, when China was carved up by all these different foreign powers and and they think that that's the last bit of un unfinished business. we need to bring Taiwan back and we'll be whole again and the foreigners will have no say in our future. You know, we'll be truly sovereign. And so that is something that I think I I I you know, I have no doubt, you know, I that the Chinese feel very strongly about. It's not, you know, we assume that they're all very cold and rational. They are very rational and they've they're patient. Um but they they do feel very strongly about this issue. So if there is a serious misstep like if we have um this administration or a future administration allows the the the independence movement within Taiwan to believe that they can actually go out you know and and declare independence and you say don't worry we have your back. We could have something like what what we saw happen in Ukraine.

[00:55:03]And there are people in Taiwan who are saying let's not be another Ukraine now.

[00:55:08]Let's not be another Ukraine. You know let's we got to deal with our neighbor.

[00:55:12]Let's not put all our trust in the US.

[00:55:14]Yes, I I don't think it's likely in the short run, but I think that possibility is already always there and and the fact again that the US has moved so many military assets out of the region has got to be affecting their calculation.

[00:55:28]You know, this would be a very bad time for the DPP to declare independence. Let me just put it that way.

[00:55:33]>> Right. Right. It would also though be a good time from the Chinese point of view to take preemptive action which is out of character for them as as you stated for them to want to do such a thing and they would probably sooner try to you know exercise the the art of war strategy of winning over your your adversary uh in a amicable amicable way as opposed to a uh confrontational one.

[00:56:00]But um there also is the the issue of the semiconductor plants and in addition to just containing China and it being a island fortress of sorts now in the 21st century it has become the world's foremost semiconductor manufacturer which of course is absolutely essential for the production of artificial intelligence and these data centers uh which for many is uh on the scale of like the Manhattan project in terms of its significance.

[00:56:34]So it seems like time is of the essence because it's the classic Thusidities trap where the American empire is in decline in some ways, not all, but in many ways I would say more ways than not. And the Chinese uh are still rising. And it's despite a lot of the demographic issues that have been brought up by people like Peter Zion, you know, I think the Chinese uh still have a lot of upward uh room to grow as opposed to, you know, our our populations here in the west that seem to getting be getting progressively less educated and just less sophisticated all around whereas the Chinese are, you know, so do you think that that factors in here? And then you know because I I view this from a World War II point of view. I mean really you have three fronts, three main fronts >> and well four I guess if you include South Africa and North Africa or South America North Earth North Earth North Earth North Earth North Earth North Earth North Earth North Earth North Earth North Earth North Earth North Africa >> but it seems like there's coordination.

[00:57:37]Do do you think there's coordination happening at the level of Russia, Ukraine, Taiwan, China, US or Israel, Iran? Do you think that's happening between >> I I think it must be and it just may as you know as the world continues to fall apart and you know these conflicts spread I think that's only going to increase. You know I know a lot of people are saying that we're already in World War II. Um you know I tended to kind of uh dismiss that but I don't anymore. I I don't think it's fair to I I'm not going to announce that we're in World War II now, but I think looking back, let's say 20 years in the future, we'll say, yeah, it kind of began in during these years, that was it's kind of like the leadup to World War II, you know, when we did have um like the Japanese seizure of Manuria and you know, the civil war in Spain, you know, we're just seeing the opening skirmishes and I think that's kind of where we are and yeah, I think all these countries have to be thinking about that I mean I think there's no question about it and um as he's you know if the Iran conflict intensifies if the there's always the chance that the you know we sort of forgot about Ukraine but that remains very dangerous and we get all this talk from the European leaders that you know they there's foreseeing a war with Russia um and that could happen it could you know it could turn into a direct Russia NATO conflict um and then you know one thing is like they're more war that you have, the more that war becomes thinkable. You know, just just a few years ago, a lot of these things were unthinkable, but they become now we kind of understand we're in a time of war. And I think we could see, you know, the the Chinese deciding, well, this is the time to to make our move. You know, the the US has is now tied down in in Europe. They're tied down in Iran. Um, and they are very weak. um the the DBP is is threatening to declare independence and they could go for I I don't think that's impossible. I don't see it happening in the short run, but I you know it's just like we live it's there's so many things that I thought were impossible just a couple years ago and now I see happening that I'm not going to say that can't happen.

[00:59:51]>> It's true that we've become a normalized to this higher level of of conflict. Uh, I mean, thinking back to 2019, you know, nobody could have really envisioned we'd be living in the world we're in today where there's conflict erupting on multiple fronts and just the countless amounts of close calls that we've had, nuclear or otherwise. Uh, it's really we sometimes forget how fast we got here, you know, from just a few years ago. So, that's very uh important.

[01:00:24]>> Yeah. So, uh, you know, what is your prognosis then for this uh Iran situation? If you, uh, would be so kind to look into your crystal ball and and give us the give us the the real, you know, not not the doomer, not the not the not the boomer, but the the realistic outcome. What are you thinking? It's it's a hard one to to see, you know, it just cuz again it's sort of like that Trump has put himself in an impossible situation and I don't even know if he's capable of getting out of it. Um so I you know one outcome um is one that I mentioned you the possibility that Trump will just give up and he'll just leave. I think that you know that there's a significant possibility that that's how this is going to end. But if he does that, well, he's going to be doing that with all kinds of people screaming in his ear.

[01:01:20]You can't, you know, we this is such a huge L for the for American hegemony.

[01:01:26]But he just may do it cuz he just, you know, we I tried all these tricks, everything you suggested. Nothing worked. I'm just out of here. Forget it.

[01:01:31]I'm telling I don't care what you guys say. I'm going to tell my base I'm the the greatest guy in the world. And and um and this was a tremendous success.

[01:01:40]But like I was saying, that would leave a vacuum. Um, and that's the thing that again that the establishment would find very very difficult to live with, but they just might have to. And that vacuum would probably be filled by I think first of all China, but then Russia.

[01:01:54]We'll see. You know, it's just sort of hard to imagine though. You know, I can't conceive of America actually letting this happen yet. They just may have to. They they have lost this war.

[01:02:04]They made a huge blunder and that, you know, if it goes to that, that is going to be just a huge blow. Um, but because it's such a huge blow to them, there is the danger. You know, I I guess it sounds like the doomer part of it, but it's >> I'm fine with that as you can see.

[01:02:22]>> Yeah. Right. Exactly.

[01:02:25]Um there is I think there's a very real danger. You know, I'm not going to put a percentage figure on it, but let's say non-negligible chance that Israel or the US could go nuclear just because, you know, they they conventional way to solve this. We we've lost. We cannot lose. The only way to win is to go nuclear. And I I don't think that's impossible. Let's just put it that way.

[01:02:50]It's not close to impossible, unfortunately. What do you think that would look like? Like where would they because you know the only place I can imagine them using nukes is on the missile cities and they could make the argument that we had to irdiate these places because this was one of the main uh reasons why we couldn't destroy or why we couldn't prevent them from blocking the straight of Hermuse was they're firing missiles from their drones or do you think it >> it presents itself in another way? I think you that would be probably the intelligent way to go go about it is to maybe strike the missile cities and but I think there are a number of them we're talking about what dozens of missile cities >> I can't really see them striking all them but it would be more symbolic than anything I guess right >> um and then also the nuclear sites as you say like Isvahan or something but then there's a danger of course that in addition well it's a nuclear strike there also could be nuclear fallout you know with additional nuclear fallout I should Okay. Um, >> so you think they would use it in a way that was somewhat akin to what they did in Japan as a way to say, "Hey, we're going to keep nuking you if you don't stop or if you don't come to our terms."

[01:04:01]>> Yeah. Right. I don't think they would directly, you know, attack Thrron. I I don't think, you know, you can never be sure. You know, again, we've seen what Israel has done, what they're capable of doing, and the US is very complicit in that. So, you could just never be sure they wouldn't. But I think probably yeah it would be something you know uh maybe a first couple of strikes that should to let them know that okay yeah we are willing to use these weapons and you better back down.

[01:04:29]>> If they do restart hostilities what do you think that looks like?

[01:04:35]There's all kinds of theories floating around. Car island >> uh just strikes the same thing that they did before attacking critical infrastructure. And how are they going to uh manage protecting the Gulf countries and their infrastructure?

[01:04:51]Because we know that that is, you know, right now the Iranian general's fingers are on the button to blow up the UAE and Saudi Arabia. So, how do they balance that if they do go kinetic? Where would the targets be in your mind? And what do you think? Um, >> yeah. Well, okay. They have declared um you know, I think both the Israelis and the Americans that they would go after power plants and bridges, right? In other words, you know, critical infrastructure. But at the same time, you know, we we when you look at the kind of assets that they've moved into the region, it does look like they are considering some kind of land invasion. Um so I don't Oh, I I I think most recently it was Professor Morandi said that that's what the the Iranians believe. And again, the Russians made that warning that look, the Americans seem to be planning to do just such a thing, >> which is seems, you know, fantastic, crazy, but again, it just the sort of thing that Trump might just go for. you know, this is this will be the, you know, the wonderful special operation and something that nobody dared to do before and I pulled it off and I'm great and you know, >> well, if they if they were so brazen to send in those uh military planes into Iran, you know, to quote unquote extract a downed pilot, you know, or if it was in fact a mission to to acquire the enriched uranium, I would not. It's well within the realm of possibility that they would try some sort of ground offensive if they thought that they could keep the troops protected from >> fire which seems crazy but >> it maybe it would be purely purely puric. They go there, they take Car Island, they take a few pictures and they bounce. I don't know.

[01:06:36]>> Yeah.

[01:06:37]Right. Um, yeah. You know, I think again it's going to be it could be, you know, it's actually something that's really more PR than anything. Um, like you said, yeah, it's just sort of a quick um I don't even know what it's what it would be really, you know, but they can be very creative. Mhm.

[01:06:58]>> Uh the danger again is just like you said that the Iranians have their finger on the trigger and I was just saying, you know, there's also talk that okay, yeah, we're going to go back to these strikes on power plants and whatever. Um but the Iran and but we're going to make it kind of fast and furious. It's going to be like 6 days of really intense bombing and then that's it. Um the idea is that you know maybe Iran would just put up with it. Um but clearly this is the new Iran. you know, they're not they're not going to appease the US. And they have made clear that if you do this, you know, say bye-bye to um you know, the these gas fields and oil refineries and so on and so forth in the Persian Gulf. And uh they've made good on their threats. You know, that's what we've learned. You know, that's I I think you have to believe them. So either, you know, whether it's an attempted um special operation on the ground or it's a um maybe a short-term return to the the bombing of Iran. Uh the consequences could just be huge.

[01:07:58]It's just it's I you know you you would think you know I I guess the UAE is already just completely lost it but you would think that the others are saying don't do this don't do this don't do this and that it must you would hope it's having some effect unless they've convinced them that they can win >> because I mean >> that they probably have some very convincing people and they bring in a bunch of fancy weapons and they say hey we're going to give you all this and you know I mean I could imagine they even making promises of you know you might be able to at some sort of land concession, >> you'll get this island or whatever.

[01:08:32]Yeah.

[01:08:33]>> Yeah. No, you're right. You know, it just might happen. Um I that would just be truly disaster. I just don't see how that can succeed. You know, it might succeed briefly in the short term. They take the Iranians by surprise and they but whatever they do, you know, it's just like uh it just can't end well. It just cannot. Um and I think you know all the reasons. Many people have discussed that. And then the the thing is that we go from having um already, you know, let's say a limited catastrophe. Let's say if everything ends tomorrow, it's still it's going to take a while for the um the oil and the other products to flow out of the straight of hormones like it was before. It's going to be at least a year. And I think even at like at a year years time, it's not going to be 100%. You know, maybe we can get it back up to 90%. But there, you know, I was just reading, I think there's supposed to be a 7-month tale to this because when you think about the tankers and restarting the oil wells and whatever, you know, we're going to have very high oil prices uh for till the end of the year, even if it's the straight is opened up tomorrow. But if Trump decides to go kinetic, then you know that 7 months turns into years. You know, if if the Iranians strike back hard and just take out, you know, like the rest of the gas field and cutter or or just destroy refineries and and the UAE and they cut the optical cable, whatever. You know, we're talking about years before we get back to to where we were before the start of this crazy war.

[01:10:03]Well, let's hope that uh reason prevails, but I do not I'm not optimistic at all at this point in time.

[01:10:12]I appreciate you coming out today and uh I would encourage people to go and check out Conversation Amongst the Ruins.

[01:10:18]Great YouTube channel and uh is there anywhere else uh you find yourself online or is that the primary?

[01:10:24]>> Okay. Yeah, we also have a Substack now, you know, under the same name. And so we have some written materials together with the videos and a website called Ruins Report that has Yeah. our stuff and then some sort of broader geopolitical stuff too. Yeah. Especially with a focus on China because of our Chinese connection.

[01:10:41]>> And you guys are doing videos daily.

[01:10:44]>> Uh three days a week.

[01:10:45]>> Three days a week. Good stuff.

[01:10:46]>> Yeah. Monday, Wednesday, Friday.

[01:10:48]>> Well, I appreciate you coming out, Peter. And guys, go check out the links in the description. Give them a sub.

[01:10:54]Thanks for coming out.

[01:10:56]>> Yeah. Thank you for inviting me.

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[01:11:16]Stay safe.