Russia’s ‘Pitiful Parade’ Illustrates Putin’s Setbacks: National Security Analyst

Ajouté : 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]And joining us now to discuss the war is Rebecca Grant. She is vice president at the Lexington Institute as well as a national security analyst.

[00:00:08]Uh Rebecca, thank you for joining us this morning. There were those reports that Putin said on Saturday that the war was coming to an end. A dramatic shift in tone. And then we see both sides blame the other for violating the ceasefire. So, what are your thoughts as to what actually happened over the weekend?

[00:00:24]Yes, of course this coincided with the May Day parade in Moscow, which was a pitiful parade. No tanks, no long-range missiles, just formations marching and unfortunately, a North Korean group there as well. And along with this, you know, Putin made this kind of noticeable statement about the war maybe winding down. And I think it caught our eye because we haven't really heard him say anything quite like that before. Now, unfortunately, it also came with some other baggage. Oh, he's willing to meet Zelenskyy, but not until there's a peace agreement finalized. He's willing to negotiate, but he wants a former German Chancellor to do the talking. Uh so, that's not very serious. But the fact is, Putin is not winning this war.

[00:01:11]His casualties have been tremendous. And right now, Russian forces are not making a lot of progress on the ground. Yeah, that ceasefire was not watertight. But really, Russia doesn't have the momentum in the Donbas that they had a year ago.

[00:01:27]Yeah, momentum. Almost as if it's like a four four quarter football match and we're we're, you know, past half time and there's you feel it almost like a momentum shift as you're describing.

[00:01:37]There's a report out from the Institute of War. Uh keep this report was on Friday and it stated that Ukraine maybe turning the tide in terms of territory loss gain uh in the month of April. And they attribute that to the drone capabilities um coupled with Putin's now changing tone. Um is there a reversal in terms of who's the aggressor at this point?

[00:02:02]Well, no question, you know, Russia the overall aggressor, but Ukraine really is doing better on the battlefield. They have slowed Russia's uh advances, if you can even call them that. And remember, Putin has not taken all of the Donbas.

[00:02:18]He still does not have all of the territory of Donetsk, including key cities like Kramatorsk. So, that's on the ground, you know, Ukraine is pretty much holding them and the Russian momentum is there just isn't any. The big change though, of course, is Ukraine's strategic drone strikes against oil targets all across Russia from the oil terminals up in the Baltic Sea all the way down to the Black Sea.

[00:02:41]They hit a shadow tanker in the Caspian Sea and they've hit other infrastructure targets. And I think this is part of the reason Moscow's parade was really scaled down. It's just hard for Putin to pretend he's winning when at one point his oil export production capability was down about 40% in April due to these Ukrainian long-range drone strikes.

[00:03:05]Fascinating. And of course, coupled with the Strait of Hormuz closure, that that is an interesting dynamic.

[00:03:11]I almost [clears throat] see this parallel in some respects to Ukraine to Israel in terms of their dual-use talent when it comes to technology. Many US technology companies work with Ukrainian offices and engineering teams. And that mastery tends to lend itself well to these military and AI applications. Um are you seeing that combination of tech-savvy as well as that economic engine that that really embraces capitalism helping them compared with Russia's economic model, which is far more allegorical and more centrally planned?

[00:03:48]Oh, yes. And Russia's economy is in very, very tough shape. No question about it. But your real point is the incredible progress that Ukraine made first with their air defenses. Now, a lot of US technology helped them there, but they've created an air defense that is 85, 90, even 95% effective against Russian drones and missiles. Now, they've also created their own ability has Ukraine to strike to target and strike, as I mentioned, Russian oil targets in particular. They've also hit some Russian air force bases over the past several months. This has been underreported, but it's been an incredibly effective source of strategic pressure and economic pressure against Russia. And it really tells you, you're right, you know, the engine of capitalism and allies together is giving Ukraine a lot more strategic leverage than they had in the past.

[00:04:40]And Rebecca, we we frequently have the Ukrainian Freedom Project in Stephen and Anna, and they tell us that Russian often targets houses of worship and other very symbolically civilian locations. Is that very much still happening in your view? And and where do you see things playing out over the next month?

[00:05:00]Yes, Russia is very indiscriminate in its targeting. Remember how they took out the Mariupol theater at the beginning of the war. They do go for civilian targets, which is absolutely terrible. Ukraine in contrast, when they do strikes into Russia with drones, they are specifically targeting, you know, remote oil pumping locations, uh legitimate military targets. And I think we're going to continue to see Russia do these indiscriminate strikes. Putin is using this as pressure on Ukraine. He also likes to do it to scare Europe. It is it's been going on a long time, you know, more than 58,000 drones, of Iranian design, as you know, have been launched by Russia against Ukraine. And it is terrible what Putin is doing.

[00:05:44]Well, hopefully this does represent a turning point. We'll have to wait and see. Dr. Rebecca Grant, thank you so much for your analysis this morning.

[00:05:51]Thank you.