A Very Wet Memorial Day Weekend

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-23

[00:00:05]Good morning. Welcome to the premium public video forecast discussion for Friday, May 22nd, 2026. Of course, I'm your meteorologist, Steven D. Martino, CDM number nine. Of course, this is the Memorial Day weekend forecast. Uh just want to give my condolences to those who gave it all, you know, for our country.

[00:00:26]That is what Memorial Day is all about.

[00:00:28]on Monday. Unfortunately, this Memorial Day weekend is not looking very uh good for outdoor activities. That is for sure. We certainly need the rainfall. We've been dealing with the drought, but uh unfortunately, a little bit of bad timing. So, we'll go over all that and why we're seeing the rain and why we likely are not going to see the end of this type of weather pattern anytime soon. First, I want to share some information from John's Hopkins. I know a lot of people are starting to go outdoors more, camping, get going, just running around in the grass, all that good stuff. Uh looks like our tickborne uh disease bites here that we're keeping an eye on has leveled off a bit over the past couple of weeks, pretty much where we were last year. So that's certainly some good news. Um, but if you are heading outdoors, if you're heading camping, definitely make sure you are well protected and keep an eye on your your ankles, your legs, your hands, the back of your neck, cuz you never know.

[00:01:26]Ticks can be a real pain in the neck.

[00:01:29]Meanwhile, keeping an eye on the tropics. No sign of any type of tropical development is expected. Uh, which is of course good news. This is a theme with El Nino, which is taking hold, taking control of our weather pattern. Take a look at what we have here. See this right here? We have dry air coming in off the Sahara Desert, which is typical for this time of year. But this feature right here is going to be a theme throughout the summer and into the fall.

[00:01:57]And that is an enhanced subtropical jetream, which means shear, which makes it far more difficult for tropical low pressure systems to develop. We're already seeing that signature very clearly out here. That is what this is and it's going to be a theme as we go forward. So certainly uh good news in which we don't want any tropical systems. But as always, it only takes one. So as far as our weather pattern shifting, uh here's some key factors here. All right, this is how you know.

[00:02:28]We all know El Nino is developing. We'll see just how strong it gets, especially as we head towards the end of the summer. We'll see if it breaks that 1.5 in 1.5 degree range and then goes above that. Uh but we all know El Nino's taken over. Okay, that's not debatable. And so with that, we take a look at very important statistical analysis that tells us just how much and how quickly this El Nino is taking control. So we watch two things, the SOI and the atmospheric angular momentum. So the SOI is tanking negative. In fact, let's put up the daily contributions here. And you see daily contributions have been predominantly negative for several weeks now. And as a result, our monthly average and our seasonal average has been free falling ever since. We're down to minus 11.5.

[00:03:21]Okay, that's pretty impressive. Uh for the monthly average, that definitely puts us into our El Nino range.

[00:03:27]Certainly a weak to moderate El Nino range right now in terms of atmospheric influence. The seasonal is basically where you would put warm neutral. Okay, so this is certainly all the signs we need to show that El Nino is starting to take over. And if you really want to push things well, let's take a look at this data right here.

[00:03:52]The atmospheric angular momentum, we are finally in a positive state here. This has just been updated uh as of well just just last night it came out. Uh and basically what this shows us is that when the AAM goes positive it supports more of an El Nino state more robust subtropical jetream more progressive polar jetream or amplified as well. Uh this is a sign here for El Nino taking over and we've been waiting for that.

[00:04:22]I've been saying around the 20th for several weeks now. We're now at the 22nd and you can see we are moving into that positive state and we are well on the way for the rest of May, June and heading into early July of that El Nino state. And so what that typically means in this type of weather pattern is you start to see a far more uh robust subtropical jetream which leads to a lot more moisture in the in the weather pattern, more active weather pattern over the southeast and the mid-Atlantic.

[00:04:54]Uh typically above normal temperatures over the northern tier, but how that plays out differs depending on how this Elno is evolving. And one of the ways that we study that is keeping an eye on what is going on here in the stratosphere in the mid latitudes and where we're seeing these pockets of warm stratospheric anomalies and how that impacts the 500 mibar pattern. So what we've been noticing when we pull up the 500 mibar pattern, let me see right here. In fact, heck, we can even go through July here and just go over the overall themes. And the overall themes is a trough generally around the illutions and a pretty robust one at that which leads to a trough over eastern Canada and northwestern in the northwestern Atlantic above normal heights around the plains right the northern plains but the subtropical gist remains pretty active where you get these ridges and troughs just marching across. So you end up with a trough axis around here, trough axis around here, very progressive pattern here. You get a bit of a ridge axis, trough axis with the subtropical jetream. So the PNA gets a little bit more muted. But the overall theme is that for us more influences from four air masses. One, the Canadian Maritimes. Two, polar air mass modified around the Hudson Bay. three, the Gulf Coast, tropical air masses, and four, Pacific air masses. So, that is what's going to be interacting with us through the summer. And this typically does not allow for much in the way of heat waves.

[00:06:33]Uh, you can get a hot period much like what we had earlier this week. But the overall theme active and generally near to below normal in temperatures, which is generally what we've been expecting.

[00:06:45]And so now we jump to our weekend forecast and we understand the themes that we are dealing with here. And right now what we have is a stationary front to our south, northeasterly winds, a few showers down in southern New Jersey, otherwise cloudy skies, variable cloud cover over the Philadelphia metro and central New Jersey, scattered cloud cover over the northern interior as drier air from a high pressure system to our north is building southward. See that very nicely here on the WeatherT radar and surface map. There's our showers. This will push off to more of an isolated threat as we move on through the afternoon and will stabilize and this is going to be probably the best day of the whole weekend period uh with this high pressure and control and scattered cloud cover. Again, you can see the visible satellite picture. More sunshine as you head up towards the Poconos and Catskills. Not much sunshine as all at all if you head down towards Atlantic City, Kate May, Wildwood, all those areas. And then in between a mix of sun and clouds, but generally dry today. So, that's certainly some good news. But, as you can see, off to our west and southwest, plenty of rain is building here. This low pressure system will head north driving this warm front, but it's going to be running into this high pressure system. Why? Well, let's take a look at some of the observations.

[00:08:07]First of all, we have our satellite picture, which just updated, and you can see the lifting associated here. You can see the moisture here starting to build with some more impressive convection.

[00:08:17]And you could see this kind of push northward, right? Kind of a ridge out here and push northward of moisture, but you're not. Look how it basically runs into a roadblock here, right? You also see that here in the water vapor satellite picture. There's our ridge.

[00:08:32]There's our moisture trying to drive northward, but then you have this trough in the northwestern Atlantic. So you could clearly see the split between the subtropical and polar jetreams and how that is setting up a very inter interesting interaction for us for this weekend which is going to support quite a bit of rainfall. We are looking at anywhere between 1 to 3 ines of rainfall possible around the region. Uh and you can see that here in our upper level winds that are setting up there. This is on uh at 250 mibars. Here's our trough.

[00:09:05]Here's our trough starting to build southward. Here's the ridge signal that we're seeing here. Again, very impressive setup here starting to take shape. And this is going to drive moisture, deep moisture from the tropics into our region at the upper levels, but not necessarily at the lower levels.

[00:09:25]Lower levels totally different story as we're going to start to see more influence from the Canadian Maritimes.

[00:09:31]This is at roughly the 50 mibars. And notice the cooler air building in. So, I'm building the stage here for interaction between air masses as we go forward. And again, you can see the moisture getting pushed southward right now with the drier air which is leading to more clearing skies. We'll see this all rebound as we head into the weekend.

[00:09:53]So, what does this look like at 500 millibars? Here we have the 500 mibar pattern here. And if you look at it and if only thing you do is look at 500 millibars, you might assume, hey, it's going to be a nice weekend because you have this ridge axis right over us, right? But this is where you kind of have to look at the whole setup of the atmosphere. What you have here is with this trough building in, notice this lobe right here drops south, which signals convergence and confluence here, surface high pressure and maritime air mass pushing south under this which is driving tropical moisture northward.

[00:10:31]And as we get through this forecast period, you could see that setup evolving and taking place. And then beyond that point, the overall theme over the next 7 to 10 days is for this trough in the polar jetream over the northern Atlantic to drive these short waves from the Hudson Bay through our neck of the woods, keeping us generally on the cool side and relatively unsettled. Lots of shower threats, lots of unstable weather patterns here setting up. Uh unfortunately, even next Friday looks to be a little bit wet with this system dropping south. This looks a little bit overdone though, a little bit too much. Uh but you kind of get the idea here. Uh it is going to remain pretty active. Now when we take a look at this week and we take a look at tomorrow, this is at 700 millibars. This is what we call finger genenesis. Okay?

[00:11:26]So we have air rapidly rising here in this zone here. Why? Because we're seeing a clash of air masses. How are we seeing declines of air masses? Because we're seeing maritime air push southward, trop tropical air from the Atlantic pushing in, and also tropical air coming in from the Gulf Coast, all converging over us. That's a lot of moisture, a lot of different thermal gradient air masses setting up leading to that lifting that's going to linger through Sunday afternoon. And then by Memorial Day, a little bit better, a little bit more of an isolated threat in your showers, but clearly Saturday and Sunday looks to be a watch out. Just looking at that, this is precipit. And when you start pushing precipit values over 2 in, that's when you have the potential here for some very heavy rainfall. This is why we can easily see over 2 in of rain in locations like central New Jersey, southern New Jersey to Philadelphia metro, parts of the New York City metro. um in this type of environment.

[00:12:29]And so again, there's plenty of moisture in the atmosphere. Here are the temperatures at 850 mibars. And you can see that warm air pushing northward, right? But take a look at the surface tomorrow. Due to all that rain and just the influence of the maritime air masses in the afternoon, we're stuck in the lower 50s, which is a heck of a change from what we were a couple of days ago when we're in the mid 90s. You're talking about a 40° drop. And you can see on Sunday, it's very difficult to get that warmer air pushing northward.

[00:12:59]We get 60s, maybe some lower 70s down in around Camden, New Jersey, if that. Uh, but you can see that maritime air mass really, really putting up a fight. Uh, so what you have evolving here is again the 850 mibar winds. We know the winds at the surface are from the northeast.

[00:13:18]850 winds coming in from the southeast transporting the moisture uh in from the Atlantic. At the upper levels, we have winds coming in from the Gulf Coast, transporting moisture from the Gulf Coast. And so you end up with this vertical uh setup here on our skew T where you can literally see the air masses clashing. Here is our maritime air mass. Here is our tropical air mass.

[00:13:44]And our air mass at 150 mibars is kind of caught in between right here. This is a saturated environment. But you could see the very stable, therefore no thunderstorms here, but very stable, very moisture loaded uh isotropic lifting event driving in where warm air is driving at the mid levels, cooler air is driving at the surface. And the interaction between these two causes significant lifting and thus the heavy rainfall. So let's dive into this forecast for today. Look for sky cloud cover, a few isolated showers down towards let's say Wildwood and Kate May.

[00:14:21]Temperatures in the mid60s throughout the region. Basically the best weather day of this forecast period for tonight into tomorrow morning. Clouds increase with showers developing towards the morning hours. Look for low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s over the northern interior, lower to mid50s along the coast. Doesn't get much better the rest of the day. Waves of rainfall, heavy at times. Look for high temperatures only in the mid to upper 40s over the northern interior. Lower to mid50s along the coast. Just a wet, raw, ugly day on the way.

[00:14:54]Saturday night, tomorrow night into Sunday morning, rainfall continues with low temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 40s over the northern interior, lower to mid50s along the coast. Really temperatures don't move at all from tomorrow morning through Sunday morning.

[00:15:09]And then Sunday afternoon with the rainfall starting to push more into New England. We'll look at periods of rain again gradually improving, gradually subsiding to more of a scattered type shower setup by Sunday afternoon with high temperatures a little bit warmer ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s over the northern interior and New York City metro. mid to upper 60s in the Philadelphia metro, possibly touching 70 degrees down towards extreme southern New Jersey and around Delaware. Sunday night into Memorial Day Monday, a little bit better improvement. Still variable cloud cover, scattered showers, low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s over the northern interior, upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast. By the afternoon hours, variable cloud cover with a few isolated showers. So, if you have any outdoor plans or activities, you probably do them on Memorial Day Monday with high temperatures ranging from the lower to mid70s over the northern interior. And on Long Island, mid to upper 70s on the I95 corridor. On Tuesday, when we of course get back to work, look for scattered cloud cover with an isolated shower possible, but pretty much quiet day. Look for low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s over the northern interior, lower to mid60s along the coast. High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s throughout the region. On Wednesday, look for scattered cloud cover with a trough swinging through producing a few isolated showers. Look for low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s over the northern interior, lower to mid60s along the coast. High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s over the interior and on Long Island, upper 70s to lower 80s on the I95 corridor. We're pretty much back to normal, if not slightly above. Then on Thursday, we have an air trough dropping through with scattered cloud cover and isolated showers. Low temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s over the northern interior, mid to upper 50s along the coast. High temperatures in the mid to upper 60s over the interior and on Long Island. Upper 60s to lower 70s on the I95 corridor. And then on Friday, next Friday, unfortunately, a backdoor coldfront will be dropping through the region leading to increasing cloud cover and widespread showers, especially around, let's say, Connecticut, the immediate coast, around New York City. As you head further west, the showers become more widely scattered or isolated. Not exactly the best day for outdoor activities, especially on the beach. Look for low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s over the interior.

[00:17:51]Lower to mid50s along the coast. High temperatures in the lower to mid60s over the northern interior. Upper 60s to lower should I say upper 50s to lower 60s on Long Island. Mid to upper 60s in the New York City metro and upper 60s to lower 70s in the Philadelphia metro.

[00:18:12]That is your forecast discussion for today. Have a wonderful day. Have an excellent weekend. And as always, stay safe out there.