Extreme Heat Now, Isolated Storms by Midweek - May 9, 2026 Phoenix, Arizona Weather Discussion

Added: 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]It's the Phoenix Arizona weather discussion. This is for Saturday, the 9th of May. I'm Michael Graff.

[00:00:05]Temperatures continue to heat up here over the desert Southwest. Daytime highs not only above average, but approaching record levels by tomorrow and especially on Monday. There is a little bit of a twist to this forecast by the middle part of the upcoming week. Area of high pressure sits to the east, low pressure to the west, southerly flow, some moisture increases over the region. Does that mean some chances of thunderstorms over parts of the state or even here in the valley? We'll talk about that. How long will it stay this hot? We'll talk about that, too. So many things to get into as we dive on in and discuss. All right, first, let's take a look at that Almanac from yesterday. 101° was the afternoon high officially in Phoenix after a morning low of 71.

[00:00:46]Obviously above those averages of 92 and 67, but nowhere near the record high 110° back in that very hot year of 1989.

[00:00:57]Okay, as we take a look outside right now here, just after 8:00, we have sunny sky out there. We're sitting at 79° already at Sky Harbor. Dew points at 36. Relative humidity 21%. The winds are light and the barometer is steady. Satellite picture out here across the west, putting that in motion over the last 18 hours or so, and high pressure is building in across the west. Now, there is a weather system that's passing by to the north of Arizona today. The tail end of that feature clips across the four corners, and I suppose there's just enough moisture and dynamic support that we could see a few showers or storms kicked off right around the four corners, maybe a few sprinkles for northern Arizona today. We will talk about that uh in modeling here in just a moment.

[00:01:46]The watch warning map, yeah, it may be hot here, but not everywhere. Still frost advisories across parts of the Dakotas and northwest Minnesota, a freeze warning in northern lower Michigan. So, the chill, that early spring or late winter chill hangs on up there.

[00:02:04]But, around here, yeah, it's it is the opposite. An extreme heat warning is in effect for the greater Phoenix area.

[00:02:09]That's from 10:00 a.m. tomorrow morning through 8:00 p.m. on Monday. There's also an air quality alert for the area for elevated ozone levels. That's issued by the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality. So, again, I do keep that in mind to outdoor activities.

[00:02:24]Again, not just because of that heat. We do want you to stay cool and stay hydrated and stay out of the sun during the peak heat hours, 10:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.

[00:02:33]Wear the protective clothing.

[00:02:36]Try to take frequent water breaks or get in the shade if you have to be outside.

[00:02:39]But, also keep in mind that if you have those respiratory issues, you'll want to stay I would I would recommend limiting your outdoor activity, particularly again, afternoon and evening hours because the combination of that heat and the bad air quality can make for hazardous health conditions. All right.

[00:02:58]The convective outlook for today about that standard slight risk of severe storms, level two out of five around Wichita Falls up toward Altus, Oklahoma. The broader severe weather risk, that marginal risk, North Texas all the way up to southeastern Wyoming.

[00:03:13]Again, with that system that's passing by to the north of us. There's also a marginal risk of severe storms for the Gulf Coast from Corpus Christi to Houston, Galveston over toward the Sabine Pass Beaumont, Port Arthur Lake Charles, Morgan City, Louisiana, New Orleans, Biloxi Mobile all the way over toward Pensacola.

[00:03:38]So, again, that there could be some gusty winds and some small hail with the stronger storms there as well as over parts of Ohio, Indiana and southeastern lower Michigan.

[00:03:51]All right, this is the day outlook. This is tomorrow. There's an enhanced risk of severe storms around Dallas-Fort Worth, Garland, Plano, Texas.

[00:03:59]And again, really some of this a lot of the same areas experiencing that at least that level one out of five marginal risk really from West Texas all the way through much of the Florida Peninsula. Really across all of Florida, South Georgia, South Alabama. So, be aware of that for tomorrow.

[00:04:16]All right, here is that precipitation outlook. This is valid through next Saturday morning from the WPC. Rain amounts in Phoenix, nothing. Statewide, they really don't have much of anything. I guess there could be a light shower someplace, but there is at least a couple of little wrinkles, twists in this forecast that we're going to talk about right now.

[00:04:35]We'll do so as we get to the models, see what the future may hold. Here we go.

[00:04:38]This is the GFS. It's the 06Z run valid at 5:00 this afternoon. The upper look at 500 millibars, that's about 18,000 ft above sea level. Still, this persistent large trough, this huge vortex over central eastern Canada. And that's been pulling down that cool air across the Great Lakes, parts of the East, even the northern plain states.

[00:04:58]Meanwhile, this highly amplified pattern for this time of year, uh bumping up a ridge across the western United States.

[00:05:06]And we are under that.

[00:05:08]There is a weak weather system that's passing through the Rockies. And again, the tail end of that's clipping across uh the northern part of Arizona for today. So, what it means down at the surface, uh for us here in Phoenix, yeah, sunny, hot, highs 100 to 104. The lower deserts generally will be in the mid-90s to about 105, depending on where you are.

[00:05:26]Uh the high desert areas, 80s to near 90. Up in uh even the high country of northern Arizona, 70s to near 80. We're expecting a high temperature of 80° in Flagstaff. Now, that being said, this afternoon and this evening we'll turn partly cloudy for northern Arizona, Page down to the Grand Canyon, Flagstaff, Winslow down to Show Low, up toward Window Rock. Those areas, yes, a few clouds this afternoon and as we take a look at our HRRR, this is the high-resolution rapid refresh model, the simulated radar product this afternoon, and we might see a few sprinkles, I guess, popping up this afternoon across northern Arizona.

[00:06:03]And this is actually at 8:00 tonight.

[00:06:06]And yet again, this afternoon, I'd say anywhere from about 2:00 or 3:00 this afternoon till 10:00 tonight, there there just might be a sprinkle or a very light shower. It's probably not going to be enough rain to measure and given how dry it is, it's it is possible some of that doesn't even reach the ground, but just something I thought I would point out. So, if you are heading up to northern Arizona, if you're watching us from up there, keep that in mind. That is a possibility for this afternoon and this evening, but it's nothing to get too excited about.

[00:06:35]All right, here's tomorrow. We'll start the day out with the lows generally in the mid-60s to mid-70s here in the lower deserts, 30s and 40s in the high country.

[00:06:44]Tomorrow afternoon, high temperatures 103 to 107 in Phoenix. We might see highs getting a little bit warmer than that in southeast California, southwest Arizona.

[00:06:54]On Monday, this is where the peak of the heat should come in.

[00:06:59]Um some of our model guidance is actually backed off by a degree or two on high temperatures for Monday, but still we're looking at very hot temperatures. Highs generally 105 to 110 in the lower deserts. Phoenix, we're forecasting 109°, which would be a degree shy of the record for the date, but could we still tie that record?

[00:07:17]That's still a possibility. It's on the table. And some spots around Arizona could be flirting with record highs. And so, it does seem warranted that we'll have that extreme heat warning here for the greater Phoenix area. And it's going to be hot all through the southwest.

[00:07:31]Temperatures anywhere from uh 15 to 18° above average statewide, maybe a little more or a little less than that for some areas.

[00:07:41]All right, let's go to Tuesday and the weather starts to turn slightly more interesting here. There's that area of high pressure continues to nudge further to the east in response to a developing trough well off the west coast. There's also an upper low that's down there over the southern or central Baja that begins to move northward and open up into a wave. Now, between these features a southerly flow begins to develop on Tuesday.

[00:08:05]And we'll see a little bit of moisture creeping into uh parts of New Mexico and eastern Arizona during that time.

[00:08:12]And so, we could see at least a couple of showers and thunderstorms firing up over the rim or the eastern mountains or maybe the southeastern portion of the state Tuesday afternoon.

[00:08:24]Those storms more than likely would just produce gusty winds, lightning, very little rainfall. That said, there's a small chance again for places like Show Low or Pinetop or uh maybe down there toward uh the southeastern corner of the state toward Bisbee. Uh we could conceivably see a storm fire up Tuesday afternoon. And then as we go into Wednesday, that southerly flow continues.

[00:08:52]And again, some widely scattered thunderstorms are possible, but most likely these would not produce much in terms of rainfall. Could you see maybe a couple hundredths of an inch?

[00:09:02]Absolutely.

[00:09:03]But again, mostly gusty wind and lightning producers more than anything.

[00:09:08]And here in the lower deserts, it's dry. Let Let me illustrate this point further. This is the precipitable water values coming off of the uh GFS Wednesday at noon.

[00:09:18]And you'll note there is a tongue of moisture that's being advected northward between that ridge to the east and a deeper trough to the west, southerly flow. And you might think, "Oh, kind of looks a little bit monsoonish." Except it's not because this is May.

[00:09:32]But, you know, uh precipitable water values approaching 1 in here across the southern deserts, maybe even exceeding 1 in. That's very high here for mid-May.

[00:09:43]But, overall, that's still below any monsoon threshold. Typically, in the monsoon, precipitable water values are up around 1.2 to 1.4 in. That's kind of baseline numbers for the monsoon.

[00:09:55]Uh so, still, these are certainly more than 250% of average for this time of year.

[00:10:04]Now, the problem with that is all that moisture is in the upper levels because look at the surface dew points at the same time on Wednesday. 20s here over the lower deserts. So, even if something popped up, even if somehow, someway, a storm popped up over the south central deserts, it wouldn't produce anything.

[00:10:22]The surface is just too dry. The lower part of the boundary layer uh below 10,000 ft is bone dry, that's sub-cloud layer. So, anything that develops, that's why we we're saying this is all going to be high-based convection that develops on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon and evening here over Arizona. So, uh we're just too dry. We can't get any of that surface moisture to come up here. Now, at some point, maybe late next week or into the weekend, we could see uh some moisture surges over southwest Arizona and southeast California.

[00:10:57]But, we'll talk about that in a moment.

[00:10:59]All right, let's keep going. Wednesday, high temperatures are going to come down, that's the good news. Tuesday and Wednesday with a small increase in clouds and moisture.

[00:11:08]Sure, highs will back off a few degrees Tuesday, a few more degrees on Wednesday, but still above 100° here in the lower deserts. This is Thursday, high temperatures anywhere from the upper 90s to about 102°.

[00:11:21]And we're going to see a trough of low pressure off to the west beginning to move eastward. Now, that system is not going to have a huge impact on us other than knocking down the ridge, taking temperatures down a bit. Any moisture that's around will be scooted off to the east by Thursday and certainly Friday.

[00:11:39]Uh so we'll call it mostly sunny and high temperatures mid-90s to about 100.

[00:11:43]That's above average, but nowhere near record levels and nowhere near as hot as it's going to be over the next couple of days.

[00:11:51]Now, let's keep it going.

[00:11:54]This is a week from today, Saturday the 16th.

[00:11:59]Troughing over the Pacific Northwest.

[00:12:02]And a more more or less a westerly flow here, so drier conditions. The heights are coming down, so temperatures would probably fall back into the mid-90s to near 100 for the deserts.

[00:12:13]And upper 60s and 70s across the high country.

[00:12:18]And again, you know, there could be these brief little moisture surges that come up the the Sea of Cortez into uh Southwest Arizona, Southeast California, Northwest Mexico on any given morning. We've seen that depicted on the GFS out here for next weekend, but that's not really going to mean anything uh precipitation-wise for us. Let's keep it going. This is Sunday uh the 17th.

[00:12:42]And again, troughing passes to the north of us, uh suppresses the height fields a bit, so temperatures would be closer to season averages, although I suspect we'd still be at least a degree or three above average. This is the end of the forecast period, Monday the 18th.

[00:12:58]And again, that's looking dry, albeit with temperatures down a little further, a little weak trough, we sometimes call just this baggy trough that kind of sits to the west of us.

[00:13:10]And I suppose that would keep temperatures from getting any warmer.

[00:13:14]That's the good news.

[00:13:16]Uh but no precipitation in a look like that. This is Let me show you this is the Euro at the same time, the European model, Monday the 18th.

[00:13:24]Pretty good agreement here, troughing over the Great Basin, and that would mean dry southwesterly flow, but temperatures down a bit. Highs probably anywhere from the low to mid-90s. If that's right, this is the Euro AI model same time. Remarkable agreement out here at 10 days, I have to say, among the deterministic models. And so, this does show that temperatures would be lower. I I hesitate to say cooler. I mean, highs back in the in the low 90s or mid-90s, that's not exactly cool.

[00:13:55]But, that's closer to average, anyway.

[00:13:57]So, we'll say temps back off toward seasonal averages out here at the 7- to 10-day period.

[00:14:04]Rainfall for Phoenix out through the 23rd of the month off the GFS ensemble.

[00:14:09]Yeah, pretty much nothing. I mean, again, there are a few a scattering of members that try to show some a trace or a few hundredths of an inch for this system here Tuesday, Wednesday for this little moisture push that we have, but I doubt that happens.

[00:14:24]Euro is much more realistic, basically zero. Euro AI model, same thing.

[00:14:29]Yeah, a few members show some rain, but basically nothing. This is the dry season, and that is not uncommon to see nothing here in the month of May. In fact, more often than not, May produces no precipitation in Phoenix.

[00:14:47]All right, temperatures off the national blended models. Yeah, obviously very hot tomorrow and Monday.

[00:14:53]We probably stay shy of 110, but temps will trend down somewhat. And I I think maybe next weekend they could be daytime highs could be a little bit lower than what's depicted here.

[00:15:04]But, even at that, below average temperatures are very unlikely, and temps trending closer to average seems to be the more favored outcome. But, let's show you the CPC outlook for the 8- to 14-day period.

[00:15:18]Uh this is May 16th to the 22nd, and if that's right, yep, temperatures still skewed somewhat toward above average levels. The the real probability skew for above average temps is really over the plains uh and much of the eastern part of the country.

[00:15:34]Uh so that kind of jives with the overall pattern shift we expect to see across North America uh with broader ridging uh building across the east, albeit not as amplified a pattern, not as high amplitude pattern as we're seeing right now.

[00:15:50]Uh but still, it'll feel more like spring over much of the country, which is something I think a lot of people, especially those across the eastern part of the country, the northeast especially, have been looking forward to for quite some time. And the northern plains, too, because they had some brutal stretches of cold up there uh earlier.

[00:16:09]Now, precipitation during that same time uh skewed slightly toward above average probabilities for northern and eastern Arizona, but here in the southwest deserts, near average precipitation is favored, and that means basically nothing, or very, very little.

[00:16:24]And that is going to do it for the Phoenix, Arizona weather discussion for today. My next video, due back here tomorrow morning. Should you happen to enjoy these videos, then be sure to subscribe, like, share, click that notification bell, leave those comments, questions, and suggestions. If you really do enjoy these videos and you want to support the channel, just like Two the Ring did yesterday on our super thanks, well then do that. Click that thanks icon below the video. Thank you once again to The Ring for that. Uh another one of our regular contributors to this channel.

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