Trump’s Republican Party Triumphs in Texas

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:02]Welcome to the Texas Take. I'm your host, Jeremy Wallace. And that thud you heard on Tuesday was the end of a lot of political careers in Texas. And you look, we had some members of Congress going down. Some incumbents aren't going back. We had some longtime members of the state legislature who are out of here. Uh but look, the biggest one of them all clearly John Cornin. Uh long career in Texas politics comes to a crashing end. And it wasn't by a little y'all. It was by a lot. You know, remember it wasn't that long ago, in fact, a year ago, almost this month, that I was on the lawn of the governor's mansion. I asked John Cornin, "Wow, you are way behind in the polls. How are you going to come back from this?" And he assured me it's early. Well, here, take a listen to what he said.

[00:00:46]>> Well, Jeremy, the campaign has not really begun or it's just begun. Uh, I've run in a lot of campaigns. I also looked back to see what President Trump's poll numbers looked like in 2016 when he ran for the first time. I believe he was losing to Scott Walker and uh Jeb Bush and we know what happened, how that story ended.

[00:01:08]>> Clearly not much changed from that standpoint. He probably lost by just about the amount that those polls were showing back then. Here's what he said on election night as you know he was seeing those results and here's his farewell >> tonight. We come we've come up short in this primary runoff.

[00:01:27]You know, a few years ago, I had a friend of mine say, "You know what makes God laugh?"

[00:01:35]He said, 'When we make plans, I've spent most of my time in the Senate building the Republican party in Texas and in the in the US Senate, and I've always supported the Republican ticket, and I intend to do so again in this general election.

[00:01:55]>> Well, of course, then there's, you know, Ken Paxton. Ken Paxton just did something that we haven't seen since 1970, y'all. He had a challenger beat an incumbent US senator in a primary.

[00:02:08]Y'all, you got to go back into the Ralph Yarboro, you know, history books, y'all.

[00:02:12]He lost his race to Lloyd Benson. So, in some ways, Paxton is Lloyd Benson in this one. I guess we'll see how that all kind of works out. But here's Kent Paxton reveling in his victory on election night.

[00:02:24]>> Tonight, we just made history.

[00:02:33]I want to thank my family, my kids, my grandchildren, the Paxton Patriots, and every single person here today. And then there's one person I think you might know, President Donald J. Trump.

[00:02:53]When everyone in Washington told him to abandon me and abandon the people of Texas, he didn't listen. Instead, he gave his complete and total endorsement.

[00:03:03]>> President Trump is the leader of our party, and his endorsement in this most power is the most powerful force in politics.

[00:03:11]>> And I'm honored to have his support, and I look forward to working with him in the Senate to deliver for Texas.

[00:03:20]>> Now, look y'all, there's a lot of national talking heads who have a lot of things to say about Texas politics, and it was kind of bugging me. So, I thought to myself, you know what? How about we get, you know, get the Texas reporters together to talk about Texas politics a little bit with a little bit of depth that, you know, is really on the mark.

[00:03:38]So, here we're going to correct a lot of homework that we all heard on the national networks. I was on some of those shows. Y'all don't you I wanted to correct people and I had to try to hold my lane and I couldn't say, "Hey, hey, that's not true." We need somebody who understands the difference between Sweetwater and Sugarland. somebody who knows the difference between Canyon Lake and Canyon, Texas, right? That's what we got here. So, that's why I brought on Gro Jeffers from the Dallas Morning News is back on with us to help kind of clear things up for us. And John Morris, a pillar of Austin politics, the Austin American Statesman's political reporter, of course. They're going to come and help work this all out for me. Y'all, it's like we have a lot to touch on here, right? It's like there's a lot of races we could do an entire show on, but I want to first start with this. you know, John Cornin defeat, why can Paxton won, and what lies ahead for James Tarico if he's going to do what has basically been possible for 30 years, a Democrat winning a US Senate seat in Texas. Let's figure this all out. So, first I want to start with you, Gromer, because Gromer, you had a really interesting piece about uh John Cornin uh in his farewell uh and just kind of how the party kind of changed under him.

[00:04:49]And you hit on something that I thought was really interesting in that about how look, this was a long time coming.

[00:04:55]There's a lot of national media who's sitting there going, "Oh, this this venerable, you know, stallion of Texas politics has gone down." It's like, whoa, whoa, whoa, back it up, y'all.

[00:05:05]It's like we've been at these places where you know John Cornin hasn't always been perfectly aligned with where the party was shifting these last I want to say 10 years. I think it's really been that long growing.

[00:05:18]Tell us a little bit about that John.

[00:05:20]It's Gro like you you hit on this uh in your piece. Did did John Cornin just not fit in with this party ultimately?

[00:05:30]Really going way back further than just Ken Paxton running against him.

[00:05:35]>> Yeah, you're right, Jeremy. I I wrote that he's been on borrowed time.

[00:05:39]Actually, when you when you think about when he was first elected, 2002, I had hair. It was one of my first campaigns in in Texas. And he ran on getting George W. Bush's judicial appointees through the Senate and that race it was against the former Dallas mayor Ron Kirk. It was just a different time and when you look back at Cornin's opponent since then there haven't been really major opponents, right? He has had a lot of good fortune and a lot of political skill in awarding tough primaries and and and sort of racking up on general elections consider in 2020 he got more votes than any candidate ever in the history of Texas. Ted Cruz exceeded that in 2024. But I I mean but you're right, we've seen him boo at state party conventions including 2022. I remember even before 2022 at a state party convention, he sensed he was going to get booed. So they they had two or three other candidates or or elected officials come out with him, put him in the middle, and they all like step forward and so it wouldn't be as many boos because he had the other guys with him.

[00:07:01]But yeah, it is hard for any candidate to bridge all the changes in in a party.

[00:07:07]The Tea Party movement uh the Republican party in Texas got less institutional, less traditional, more populous, and he was able to adapt in terms of still being able to win elections. But we always had the sense, Jeremy and John, when that one guy or when that one candidate came forward that matched up against him who had the base, who had the grassroots, who had the activists, who had in this case MAGA, that he would have problems with that candidate and that's exactly what happened. So, it's not really a surprise that he lost.

[00:07:44]>> Yeah. Yeah. And Gromer, I think you hit on a really important point. Like people will remember in 2022 he got booed viciously at the Houston convention when the Republicans were having their convention there. I was there recorded a lot of that. You know, it's like I was right up front when and it was just overwhelming. It was see but like you said there were other conventions where there were there were problems there. I remember specifically I think it was the 2018 convention in San Antonio. He comes out there and you could feel the booze starting to happen. I could start hearing it happening and he said, "God bless Texas and like and you can't boo when you, you know," and then he went straight into something about the Alamo and you can't boo the Alamo when you're in San Antonio.

[00:08:24]>> Great Jeremy.

[00:08:26]>> Yeah. He knew how to make sure the boo didn't crescendo, but then but we've seen in past conventions and around other Republican grassroots people like you mentioned, those activistbased, you know, Republicans had been feeling like he wasn't with them for a while. And I think it really started to kind of show in this race. Even like folks who listened to the show last week, y'all will remember like there was John Cornet in San Antonio surrounded by Rick Perry and Phil Graham making this pitch in San Antonio at a retirement home uh trying to make this final case and it's like it was establishment on top of establishment to make a case to the establishment Republicans and clearly that wasn't the message. John, you were over at, you know, John Cornin's event, you know, on Tuesday night, right? And say tell us a little bit about what was what you were seeing there and what was the feel as we watched John Cornin have to say kind of goodbye to a really long political career.

[00:09:26]>> Yeah, it it's interesting. It was a at a nice hotel in in downtown Austin. And we get to the room and the uh you know the little sign on the door says John Cornin's uh election night celebration.

[00:09:38]It was not a celebration even from the start and well past the finish.

[00:09:46]No uh you know cheap white wine uh no no uh you know party loyalist hanging around. It was reporters, uh, TV cameras, a couple of campaign hands, um, just basically, uh, and just sort of waiting for what we all sense was going to happen. Although I don't think any of us sensed that just the magnitude near 2:1, uh, became the margin. And uh you know uh Cornin uh in all the years I've covered him and I go all the way back to 1998 with John Cornin the uh the year of uh his uh first run for at only run for attorney general. You never saw you've never seen that man raise his voice in public. You never seen him get too emotional. But he was about as somber as uh as I've ever seen him. He had his wife and his two daughters with him. Um, you know, if you want to give him props, uh, you know, a lot of, uh, a lot of the coverage has been, you know, John Corner got the hell beat out of him, which he did. Uh, but take our hats off to him.

[00:10:51]He was gracious. He didn't say anything about rigged elections. He didn't grouse that the president didn't uh uh reward his loyalty. Um he didn't mention Paxton's name, but he did say he would uh support the tickets that have always uh supported the Republican ticket and will do so again. Uh you know, so let's uh let's sort of give him that. And also let's go back to something Grober said about 2002. I'll take it to two 1998. He beat what was then the insurgent right-wing candidate, a guy named Tom Pockin. I'm I'm sure I'm sure you guys remember that name.

[00:11:29]um who was in a feud with then Governor Bush because he didn't think Governor Bush and Senator K. Belly Hutcherson were near conservative enough. But Carl Rove basically said, "No, this is our guy. He's going to he's going to carry the banner." He looked like central casting for US senator. He was in his 40s, not even deep into his 40s. Hair was as white as it was on Tuesday night.

[00:11:51]And u and and that's just sort of like where he came from. He was always that establishment guy uh visually, temperamentally uh uh governing. I mean, what did him in, and I think you mentioned it in your uh most recent newsletter, Jeremy, was that vote uh or or his involvement to get the gun bill passed, which, you know, everybody says, you know, can't we walk across the aisle and get stuff done? Well, he walked across the aisle and got stuff done and it done him in.

[00:12:23]And maybe it's like, you know, and I I wrote this in the Texas Tech newsletter earlier this week, but you know, I I think he lost this race three years ago and he just didn't know it. Uh y'all may have been on that same call I was with him when, you know, cuz it was during the session. I I you know, ducked out in one of the hallways in the in the Texas Senate and I got on the call with Cornin and Cornin said uh Donald Trump's time had passed him. Uh and he said, you know, he loses every time he's on the ballot. Look, we've lost the House, we've lost the Senate. You know, we need to switch. You know, this was when, you know, Trump was trying to make his his first comeback here, right? You know, he's trying to run for president again.

[00:13:02]And look, the one thing we know about Trump is like a lot of people question his intelligence and what, but he's not a fool. He certainly remembers what Cornin said. That was a critical point in the campaign. And so, he is never fully on board with John Cornin, I think, at that point. He's had problems with other politicians. You know, Marco Rubio obviously was able to mend those fences. Ted Cruz to a degree was able to mend those.

[00:13:28]>> Yeah. Right. Like there's so many people that have gone against Trump and been able to, you know, fix that up. But the problem for Cornin in this whole thing was he showed that disloyalty to Trump and was very bold about it, more boldly than maybe a lot of other Republican senators were at that point. And there's no way Trump was going to forget that.

[00:13:49]particularly when Donald Trump is playing golf with Ken Paxton, when Ken Paxton is filing the, you know, the election challenge to the 2020, you know, presidential election on his behalf to the Senate when no, you know, lawyer in their right mind was willing to file it. Pton's like, "Yeah, I'll do it." He filed the challenge. It was Paxton who was one of the speakers at the January 6 rally before, you know, obviously we all know the storming of the capital, right? It's like over and over again Paxton was in the Trump universe. He went to Mara Lago to particularly court u Trump to make sure he wouldn't endorse Cornin at the pressure of some in the White House and some in the US Senate.

[00:14:34]So you see like I think Cornin set the stage, you know, three years ago. And the problem is he just could not do enough to win back Trump. No matter how much he said good things about him, how much he he tried to bend a knee to him and you do all the right things, Trump never forgot it. And you saw it in the endorsement message, right? Like even in the message he's saying, you know, Cornin wasn't there with me when, you know, it was important. It's like he remembered it. and never went away.

[00:15:04]>> Yeah. Corn like to say he was with them 99.3% of the time on votes, but it was the point seven, >> right?

[00:15:13]>> I remembered.

[00:15:14]>> Yeah. And and and John and Jeremy, it must be very frustrating, too, because if you believe the reports, right, Trump was close to endorsing Cornet after March 3rd. And just think what what that would have been. And and I I'll give Paxton and his forces credit to be able to stop that and then reverse it the way that they did and and this whole Save Act stuff. I'll be willing to step aside if you pass the Save Act and all of or and all of that kind of thing, right?

[00:15:48]That was that was really really skilled politics right there because it played it it gave enough time for Trump to say and and I think Trump said this publicly uh or privately. I understand that MAGA is with Ken Paxton.

[00:16:07]And so when he thought about it over the the following weeks, Jeremy was like, "Yeah, Korin has never been with me.

[00:16:15]He's a nice guy. I like what he's done done for me. I like that he posh for the picture posted the picture of him reading my book, The Art of the Deal. I like all the nice stuff he said. But when it counted, he told Jeremy Wallace that my time had passed. Right. Right.

[00:16:32]It was like it was just it's just one of those things where I think you just can't put some things back in the box no matter how much you try in politics.

[00:16:39]It's like and I think Cornin thought he could maybe pull a Marco Rubio, you know, and maybe he could pull a Lindsey Graham. You know, those guys have been to reinvent themselves as these vicious critics of Trump into close allies. How do you do the how do you get there? And I think that's the thing, you know, Cornin just never could get that final.

[00:16:58]Look, against a lot of Republicans, he may have been able to pull that off, but Paxton had already built a relationship with Trump that was just too strong. So he was asking Trump to vote to endorse against your golf buddy or not golf buddy but he played golf like endorse against the guy who filed the challenge to the 2020 presidential election on your behalf. I want you to go against that and go with me instead who said your time's up. That's what you know Trump was hearing that whole time. And here's the thing. I think Trump knew he had this over Cornin and so why does he hold back that endorsement? He dragged that thing out so he could keep Cornin in his camp. And then he sees that Paxton is leading in the polls. Look, Cornin's pollsters uh are Trump's pollsters. Like, and there's no doubt information was going back and forth.

[00:17:47]Cornin had to know what the numbers look like. Uh so did Trump. And so I think Trump was sitting there going, "Whoa, whoa, whoa. If Paxton's going to win this thing, I don't want to win this without my endorsement. I want to look like I own that guy a little bit." And you heard it even in Paxton saying, "Hey, it it was Trump all the way."

[00:18:03]Trump's going to have this loyal soldier in the US Senate, a US Senate that is starting to get a little grumbly, right?

[00:18:10]They're starting to kind of push back a little bit. You know, now with Cassidy, you Bill Cassidy from Louisiana, you know, in the mix with Susan Collins and Lisa Marowski and Ran Paul. The numbers are growing, but he knows he might have Paxton in there, right? He he could have Paxton as his guy going into this to help defend him. And I love what you said there about uh Ken Paxton, he won this race maybe on March 4th, right?

[00:18:35]When he was able to stop that endorsement from going out because I I think it was right. It's like uh I love talking about this because I did talk to Blazing Golia. He's the chief financial officer of the state of Florida who I used to cover when he was a state rep. I called him up and he goes, "Yeah, Ken Paxton's here right now at Mara Lago uh with me." It's like and so he was clearly Paxton was putting in the work which is a big deal. One of the criticisms of Paxton is that he's not as aggressive is not always working out there. But here he was making sure he was putting himself at, you know, random Lincoln Day dinners uh at Mara Lago just so he could be in the room in case Trump was going to be there. And I think that's a work ethic that Paxton was able to kind of show really and a clarity that I haven't always seen in his career, but that probably helped win this race ultimately in the end for him.

[00:19:30]>> You know, it's going to be in interesting going forward is Paxton is very a droid at uh appealing to that party base and that Trump base, but um that ain't going to win you the general election in Texas. and uh he has not and correct me if I'm wrong uh Gro or Jeremy he has not ever had to uh tax center he has never led a ticket before and the one uh close election that he had was when Betto was leading the ticket and Justin Nelson got just as close nearly to Ken Paxton as uh as Betto got to Ted Cruz. So, that's kind of what I'm looking at as as we go forward is how does he appeal to what what's that old cliche about the game is one between the 40 yard lines. Um, Pax's lived on the 20 yard line, his own 20, and it served him just fine. How does he get to the 40 and 50 and and the other 40? I'd love to hear y'all y'all's take on that.

[00:20:31]>> Yeah, Grommer, I definitely want to hear you on this. Like, you know, Paxton's a creature from your backyard up there.

[00:20:36]Tell us a little bit. Can Paxton be the guy who can now, you know, pick up somebody in the middle, an independent E type Republican?

[00:20:44]>> No, he that's not in him and he won't he won't do it. I think he's going to try to win this by showing that Tyler Rico or or trying to show that Tyler Rico is not in step with average Texas voters. They're already starting it, right? there. He's going to try to make Tyler Rico into this liberal weirdo who, these are their words, who doesn't eat meat. And of course, Terico is not a vegan, but they're calling him that.

[00:21:16]They're talking about his old clips about six genders and and and God being non-binary, all the the the border being a should be a front porch. All of that kind of stuff they're going to throw at them. Uh, and Tyer Rico is gonna have to find a way to deal with that, right?

[00:21:35]Just like Democrats needed to find a way to deal with the transgender uh, attacks Republicans were levying on them. So I he's going to like remain who he is and rely on somebody like Greg Abbott to be the sort of guy who goes for the middle and brings out middle voters for everybody basically and hopes that he he can survive that way.

[00:22:03]Republicans, as you guys know, have a structural advantage in these electorates. the the job is harder for Terico because not only does he have to get soft Republicans and independents, but he has to maximize the Democratic base, especially in communities of color. Paxton is hoping that he won't be able to do that to the max and that he can still be himself and pull this off.

[00:22:28]We'll see what happens. But it's an opportunity for Democrats because you guys the the thing is MAGA won big right on Tuesday. But Democrats got pretty much the statewide ticket that they dreamed about with Paxton, Maize Middleton, Bo French.

[00:22:47]So we'll see if they can do something with it.

[00:22:50]>> And and let me let me underscore a key point that you just mentioned there because I want to you know the Texas public policy polling. No, no, no. Uh, the Texas Pol political project. What is that? University of Texas poll.

[00:23:00]>> Texas politics project.

[00:23:02]>> There you go. They're great. They're actually one of the few polls I do enjoy out there. Uh, they do a good job. And when I was really, I used a little bit of their poll when I was talking to uh uh CNN earlier this week. I I was pointing out the fact that look, you know, in the primary, you know, it's like you got to understand Republican voters, you know, even with this war going on, even with $4 gas are still 77% favorable with Trump. But if you look at the independent number, it's 17%.

[00:23:33]You can see why the minute Cornin went down, Terica was sent putting out a social media post saying, "Hey, Cornin people, I'm your guy." He knows that independent moderate Republican is not going to swallow everything Trump says when we're still paying $4 for gas at the pump. If we're still doing that in Labor Day, you can see where the the seas start to open up and you can see where there's a pathway for Terico. And that's the question that's been bugging me. I'm hearing on national talk shows all the time. They're talking about does Terico have a shot here? And and I'm and what I hate is when people go off gut, you know, they go, "Oh, Democrat hasn't won before, so it's not going to happen." Whoa. Well, okay. Look y'all, I want to bring some numbers into this equation. When you have Maurice, you Gromer and me on, we're going to tell you why there's a possibility. It's not just going to be on a feeling or like, "Oh, this campaign has a a cool sign, so it's going to happen." No, no, no. Like, you have to do a couple of key things in this. Remember, I think the math shows there's a possibility here with a big asterk. And what I mean is that you remember Bettoor loses the US Senate race to Ted Cruz by 219,000 votes. I'm not going to give you a lot of math, but just remember 219,000 votes. We've added 2 million voters since that time. And 1 million of those are along the Blue Spine. That's that stretch of I35 from Laredo through Dallas. picks up all of our urban diversifying core. So, there's a heck of a lot more people who have moved along this blue spine that says that 219,000 margin that he has to close, it exists out there if you can do it. But here's the thing, and you touched on this earlier, Gromer. It's like he has got to repair that damage with the Jasmine Crockett supporters who thought Jasmine Crockett was going to get, you know, 40 50% turnout in Houston and Dallas communities that we typically don't see that number. That was a key part to it where I think he still has to figure out what's he going to have to he can't just win those people over. He's got to get them excited. You know, how do you get That's what Jasmine Crockett was offering. I'm going to give you somebody who's excited about coming out to vote for this ticket for the first time since maybe Barack Obama. And Jeremy, here's what bothered me about the whole argument that that Jasmine Crockett and Tal Rico had over electability and all of that kind of stuff and how you win in Texas. You just summed up how you got to really do both. You got to get uh independents, soft Republicans, persuadable voters, but you also got to go at the urban areas, the area you just described. That is kind of your base, right? And you have to be able to turn it out. And a lot of it means turning out communities of color. They powered a a a great deal of the growth in Texas, right? And so if Terico has a nice start with Latino voters, right? Uh but he has to continue to get them excited. But you're right, repairing the the the damage and is real damage that was done with Jasmine Crockett supporters and that argument Terico supporters made harshly in some instances that that that Crockett could not win and what that meant in terms of a black woman running statewide. They never really got that a lot of uh Torico supporters. So, you got to go back and make sure not just that that that Crockett is on board and she's going to say what she needs to say as we approach November. She's going to do the right thing publicly, right? But you got to underneath the surface be able to go into those communities. I know he's trying and and get them excited. And whether it's an anti-Trump message and the message your existing message, you still have to sell it to voters that you maybe you don't ordinarily being a a central Texas uh white Democrat, maybe you don't go to those areas all the time, but you got to get down there and do the work. And you hit on you hit on a key point here.

[00:28:00]There's an authenticity that has to come out of it. It can't be a token appearance here and there. And the thing is the Tal Rico campaign is doing a great job in trying to understand that authenticity, you know, problem that Democrats have had, particularly in South Texas with Latino voters. I love his hire of Chuck Roa. Chuck Roka is this guy from Tyler, Texas. He bleeds Texas. He knows his He knows how to communicate to Hispanics in a genuine natural way that isn't like some, hey, you New York told us to do this and we'll win. You know, it's like he's not just going to talk about border issues and immigration. He's going to figure out a way to kind of get in communities.

[00:28:37]He's worked on a lot of campaigns nationally and but it's crazy how few Texas Democrats have used him in big statewide races. And that's really important this because if there's one thing that you know Betto Ror underperformed in, it was down in the valley. If you look at his numbers compared to Hillary Clinton when she was on the ballot, he actually did worse than Hillary Clinton in some of those areas. That 219,000 vote margin of defeat to Ted Cruz is probably in the valley that year. If he could have been somebody that connected in a different way with that Latino community and Taler Rico showing that, right? And now he's got to figure out, okay, this is what makes it complicated for Democrats, right? like, okay, I gotta do that, but I also have to walk and chew gum at the same time, which means getting Jasmine Crockett, bring her in, you know, or at least bring in the people who can help him figure out how do I make sure people in the black community are hearing my message in a way that, you know, feels authentic and real for them. I know, you don't have to change your message. You just got to make sure you're doing it the right way and get the right people around you to kind of help you make that sale, right?

[00:29:45]And I and and this is where I want to get back to you, John. It's like one of the things that Betto Ror did, I think, that was key to that 2018 race was that he got out of politics and became a cultural thing, right? It's like there was a point where like we're at that point early in the campaign where look, the only people really paying attention are the people who are really interested in politics, but when we get past Labor Day, you need regular human beings who vote sometimes whatever know who you are. And that's what Betto work was able to pull out, right? Even if you weren't involved in politics, you're seeing his bumper sticker around. There's this weird energy. I was going to events where now people weren't even voters and they just wanted to go to a Betto rally for the sake of it, right? And you're just like, I've never seen that in politics before, John. It's like, does Terico have the bones to do that to get out of just politics and reach beyond into becoming a cultural thing that can win those independents and moderates?

[00:30:41]Well, you know, Betto has not used his skateboard uh in a while, so maybe Taller Erigo can borrow that and whiz across a uh a lot of Burger parking lot getting get the media out there.

[00:30:53]Obviously being facitious there. I don't think we'll see Telerico on a skateboard or anything like that. He's got a he's got his own brand. It's different from Beetto. Um, one of the things I tell people who are curious but not like ed up with politics is like Betto was probably the more fun candidate to cover, you know, for some of the reasons we just hit on. Telerico's uh stock and trade is um is is the image of someone new, someone who's breaking a mold, you know, whether it's the Christianity thing, um you know, young uh generational uh thing that that's kind of where he is selling himself. We don't really know a whole lot about his personality. uh the podcast he did uh you know that got a lot of traction about the fact that he's uh he he's he's he's got a steady girlfriend that he's committed to that was new. Um that individual is not part of the campaign. You don't see photos of the two of them together or anything like that. You know, maybe we'll see something like that going forward. I want want to circle uh back to um uh the Jasmine Crockett uh challenge that uh Tal Rico does face. Um yesterday in Houston, State Senator Rodney, a former state senator Rodney Ellis, now a county commissioner. He was down there acting as a surrogate. Uh uh Rodney uh Ellis came up to Dallas for Jasmine Crockett's launch uh back in December and and made no bones about the fact that you know he was team Crockett all the way. Um he's got that uh a lot of authenticity. I don't know that um you know he's been in politics since the 80s and 90s. I don't know if he's like the wave of the future so much. Uh but he's probably a credible messenger at least in in the Houston communities that he's represented over the years both in in the legislature and at the county level. So I just want to make sure we didn't overlook our old buddy Rodney Ellis.

[00:32:58]>> Of course. Yeah. And and there's a guy who listens to this show, so it's important to make sure Rodney knows we're talking about Rodney because he's going to hear it.

[00:33:06]>> Yeah. He might be one of your guests going down the line. Well, so here here's one of the here's the biggest problem I have potentially with the Tal Rico campaign and the thing that can undo it all. The thing that I think really kind of, you know, every time somebody says, "Does he have a shot?"

[00:33:19]It's like, okay, the thing is he can't be a cautious paint by numbers type candidate. It's like, you know, there's an au again the word authenticity is like has to be there. You have to campaign naturally in the state. You can't turn in and call an all, you know, where you're just like, you're going by a book that somebody in, you know, the Democratic senatorial campaign committee gave me and I'm just going to use this.

[00:33:43]I'm going to have a lot of outsiders who don't understand Texas, right? You got to be authentic about this. And I get a little bit worried about you James Taler Rico and as he's his campaign gets bigger is like is he gonna be able to keep the authenticity that made him interesting to begin with? The thing that made him rise out of the Texas legislature and become I think a giant killer in a way cuz he did beat Jasmine Crockett who I didn't think he was going to beat. Like he proved that he has some natural chops to be able to pull some of this off. I just hope that natural like feel to him doesn't get painted over by like 50 consultants, you know, but you need to be a little bit more schooled than Betto, right? Betto had like Betto's biggest strength was his greatest weakness, which is like a Greek mythology thing, right? And like his wild go wherever he wants, you know, go all instinct is what got that race so close, but also probably did him in a little cuz he couldn't, you know, you know, he he he wasn't a guy who was going to be structured. Is there a place in between where Telerico can be structured but still be legitimately authentic to Texas voters who will be turning on the TV for the first time and going, "Hey, who's this Telerico guy in September?"

[00:34:55]It it has to be a Texas campaign. It can't be a campaign. I mean, it's going to be a campaign driven by Washington and New York consultants. I mean, it is what it is, right? But it's going to have to have a Texas feel. And that's where Betto and 18 uh that's why he thrived because you can say what you want. It was it was just Betto and you know and um you know and Cynthia and and and and company and and all of those folks you know carrying around selfie sticks and and and just doing their thing on the road. And it was text he changed up his speeches depending on the audience. It was a show, right? He didn't give the same canned speech over and over again.

[00:35:42]Uh, you know, depending on the audience, you would get a little local flavor in that speech. And so, that's what it has to be. It has to be a Texas campaign.

[00:35:52]And it has to be authentic and it has to give Texans the feeling that they're doing this, that they're part of this movement, that they're going to win or lose, not like some, you know, some Washington movement. And that's what he has to do.

[00:36:11]>> And one of the things that's, I think, important to point out when we talk about a Texas campaign, this ain't Texas 1979.

[00:36:19]This is a whole different Texas. And I think Telerico has been pretty good at recognizing >> Yeah.

[00:36:25]>> that it's not guys in cowboy hats and pickup trucks alto together. And uh Telerico >> that there are some vegans, John. That >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We've even got vegans in Texas that >> every not eating barbecue and ordering tacos with like, you know, brisket in it.

[00:36:48]>> Yeah. Egg and cheese. Um but but but that's you know now I've completely lost my train of thought on this but uh but but Texas is not a stereotype. Somebody asked me about a Texas accent and I asked them which one >> because that's how Texas has has become uh uh you know you go to the valley there's a Texas accent but but it ain't the one you're going to hear on Hollywood and you you know and probably not the one that might be understood uh by these consultants outside of Texans who have that playbook that y'all mentioned uh you know check the boxes and and uh and and find your way to the winning the winner's circle that way.

[00:37:28]Yeah, it's interesting like you know in the in the hearse environment we live in now. So people can still say stuff in Dallas that never gets heard in Houston.

[00:37:37]Uh and you can say something in San Antonio that nobody in the panhandle ever heard. And a lot of campaigns like miss out on that. You know they they don't understand that there's such a differentiation. You know, there's a reason when, you know, Texas was created, when John Tyler signed the papers to make Texas a a state, it was going to be five different states because that's how big we are and how different our regions really are, right?

[00:38:00]Like, nobody could conceive of this monster beast. We even know how diverse we were going to be, right? Like, when you're in South Texas, you are so far away from the panhandle. It's not just 12 hours, y'all. It is like much more than that you beyond time and space type thing, right? Uh look, we could talk about this forever, but let's switch over to a couple of other key races here because like I really want to hit on.

[00:38:25]There's a couple of big careers that came to a close, a couple of upsets here and there. Uh but one I wanted to kind of get into a little bit was, you know, sticking with the Republican theme, the attorney general's race. uh that felt like a mini Cornin versus uh Paxton race and that you had two guys with, you know, that was relatively well known in Texas or at least within with within Republican voters trying to say I'm the more Trump candidate. We didn't have an endorsement that ever came down in this race. Chip Roy versus Maize Middleton.

[00:38:56]Anything surprise y'all about that race?

[00:38:59]I'll start with you, John. Um perhaps the margin Chip Roy has probably got as much name ID as any member of Congress. Uh uh in the Texas delegation didn't do, you know, it did not acrew to his benefit.

[00:39:14]He's also um like you talk about authentic. I mean, who's more authentic Texas than than than Chip Roy? And um Maize Middleton to a lot of voters, I would imagine, is more enigmat enigmatic. He he's still a young man at 44. He certainly I mean he you could put a an overlay visual template on him and James Terico and not be able to tell a difference um you know in their in their in their temperament and visage. Um Maize Milton did have a lot of money. Uh he was smart enough to get that money spent early. A ton of money came Chip Royy's way very very late and probably very very too late to kind of help him.

[00:39:59]That was the um the money from Alex Fairley, the um deep pocketed uh Amarillo businessman, oil man uh who's uh um been underwriting Republican and and very hard right campaigns for a while. So, the margin on Chip Roy uh kind of uh surprised me. And um uh and then we'll also want to see what um uh what the battle of the two senators. We got Senator Johnson on the Democratic side versus Senator Middleton on the Republican side and see how that comes out in the in the general. I think we're still a Republican generic state. I don't know if you know the and nobody's talking about a blue wave that could go all the way down the ballot yet, but you know, we shall see. Um, but I think that'll be a pretty good matchup intellectually, stylistically, and obviously partisanly on on that going forward.

[00:40:53]>> Yeah, remember early on, Gromer, there was a point where I think Trip I think he said it on Dallas TV, but I know he said something similar to me, which is, you know, it's like he thought there was a chance he could win the primary outright back in March. He thought he could get to 50% and not only did he not do that, he couldn't win the runoff. You know, it's like here's a guy I kind of almost feel like, you know, they didn't see Maize Middleton coming uh and turning into what he did.

[00:41:18]>> No, they didn't. And and quite frankly, Maya uh Maize Middleton acknowledged that those polls were real, that he had that ground to make up. You know, I I think it was the name change that that really helped. calling himself MAGA Maze Middleton in a in a prime in a Texas Republican primary and a runoff that what had what seven or eight% singledigit runoff for turnout. I I think that worked for him because let's face it, he's not well known throughout the state. Not yet.

[00:41:53]and and and you know, you got those Malcolm Ace Middleton, you know, it it helped uh and you you mentioned Trump didn't endorse in that race, right? I mean, uh so there you are basically announcing that you're part of Trump's movement and I and I think the commercials that this is Cornin had to face this too.

[00:42:18]some of Chip Royy's remarks about MAGA and and all of that. Exactly. Come back to bite him, right? But it is really MAGA had a big night >> with Paxton Middleton both French. Big night.

[00:42:33]>> Yeah. One of the things I liked about like I love seeing thematics start developing in all the races. And so one of the things you know with you know Cornin obviously a creature of the establishment. You know, Chip Roy has only been in Congress since 2018, but he's been in politics a long time, right? He, you know, worked for John Cornin's staff at one point. He was Ted Cruz's chief of staff. He was in the AG's office. He's been part of the network for a really long time. And then, you know, take the leap over to the Democratic side. Al Green's another one of those guys who's been in the United States Congress for 20 years. And in each one of those races, you had these younger people, not by a ton in the case of Ken Paxton, but you still have them making this case going, it's time for change, for something fresher.

[00:43:15]You know, vote against the swamp, whatever you think that is. You know, Meny K Meny wasn't saying that against Al Green, but he was saying it's time for new, you know, you know, leaders in Texas politics. And like you can see there was a thematic building where I think the you know the older generation.

[00:43:34]It's like they they kept trying to talk about their experience and they know how to get things done in Congress. But in runoff elections with partisans they don't want to hear that. It's like they don't care about that. They want to they want fresher faces. I've been voting for this guy for 20 years even if he's been good for me. It's been 20 years. you saw Ken Paxton really drive that home that like this just may be that kind of cycle where you know finally all those years of having the old guys like Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell and having these images of you know older politicians always winning you know it's like maybe go with the younger voices that can be part of the next generation that's where I think Maize Middleton was able to kind of feel like he was different even if he didn't have to say it right like here's this new guy I don't know am Chip Roy. I know he's part of the system in some way, even if he's saying I'm not. Right.

[00:44:25]So, it just >> Yeah. We have not had a generational um election in Texas, maybe since Bush and Perry uh all those years ago. I mean, you you Cornin's been on the ballot since the 90s, 80s if you count when he was a local judge. Um, you know, obviously on the on the D side, Tar Rico and perhaps even uh she's a little bit older, but she's still still pretty uh fresh. Uh, Gina Hinahosa. I mean, this has has the opportunity to be a uh uh yesterday versus tomorrow uh type of a theme just depending on what what what other background noise is going to be driving the uh the narrative. Uh, >> I want to swing back to you, Gromer, on like so we would be remiss not to talk about Colin did complete his uh, you know, I guess comeback tour, I'll call it, and he was only out of Congress for a hot second, but but he was able to win this runoff election. That was >> that was pretty impressive also because there was a theory that the small turnout would help Julie Johnson who is currently in Congress and had uh strong connections with some of the institutional party folks not just locally but the King Jeff and all of that. But what Aris showed her was that all that doesn't matter in an in district race if you have the neighborhoods and the people behind you and he is very popular in in North Dallas in that Dallas County District.

[00:46:07]He just is. Went to Hillrest High School. Former NFL player, Baylor stand out. Uh flipped that uh 32 seat from Pete Sessions. So, and and then universal name recognition because of his statewide run in 2024. Uh, that is interesting. But let me just say this, redistricting really took a toll in in North in North Texas for Democrats. When you look at the the carnage, Mark Vi is leaving after this term. Jasmine Crockett ran for Senate. She's out.

[00:46:40]Julie Johnson is out. So though already is going back and and that's going to be exciting for him. He's already told me that uh Hakee Jeff is going to have to quote earn my vote, you know. So, but they're going to lose that district 32 seat and um and that's that's significant. And so while Aubry is going to feel good about going back to Congress, Democrats will see uh feel that net loss because of redistricting.

[00:47:12]And let me just say one more thing. In wave elections, you need to make sure you have good candidates up and down the ballot. It probably would have been a good idea to fill a very strong candidate in Congressional District 24 where Beth Vanine is. and in any area where you can sort of maximize them turnout just in case it's a big wave of election.

[00:47:38]>> Well, and like and and John, this a perfect transition to you on, you know, like we're seeing the Dallas delegation really kind of change a lot. Al Green going down. Obviously, Sheila Jackson Lee is no longer in the Houston delegation. The Democrats in Houston took, you know, got a lot younger and a lot less experienced. Uh Lloyd Dogget, you know, a staple. He was the the veteran of you. He and Al Green, you know, it's like it looked like they were going to be two of our deans of our delegation. Uh Lloyd Dogget's career is, you know, coming to a close because of redistricting. Uh and Henry Quayar could be next up. You know, they drew his seat to be more competitive. I still think he's going to pull this off somehow. uh he's just a survivor and people people in South Texas know that name but but there's a potential if all three of those guys you know we know Green is not coming back and we know Lloyd Dawkins is not coming back if Qua doesn't come back our most senior Democrat is we Castro it's who just got in Congress it feels like right so all of a sudden this place that once had you know people like Sheila Jackson Lee and Eddie Bernese Johnson and these longtime names who knew where the levers of power are like we have a lot less of that you And our seniority starts with maybe Wen Castro to have to be the kind of leader of a delegation of a lot of newer faces uh and people who may not know how to get like things done you with the next speaker or if the Republicans are still in control. So watch on all that y'all.

[00:49:05]I think we got some things coming.

[00:49:06]>> And Jeremy, from a bipartisan perspective, you were losing Cornin in the Senate where all the all the local governments, the chambers, the the the people who needed resources and money, they knew that you went to Cornin or K.

[00:49:20]Billy Hutcherson and now Ted Cruz to some degree. It's going to be something to see like how where how people approach packs in order to get stuff right. It's it's it's not hyperbolic to say that that a century of institutional knowledge is is going to walk out of the US capital and back to Texas uh when that comes. But you mentioned Castro who uh he he was like he was like the statewide candidate ever that never ran every cycle going back to the middle 2000s. Um but but sticking in Congress could could have been like a good career move. say the uh the Democrats uh take the House, which I think a lot of the pundits are saying is still going to happen despite all this redistricting that's going going on. He's the dean of the Texas uh delegation in a Democratic run house. You know, what is he going to be chairman of? Probably whatever he wants.

[00:50:16]>> Well, and here's what's crazy, and I love what you said there because, you know, think about that $13 billion that they were able to get into the budget last year for Texas to get reimbured for border security. That was John Cornin.

[00:50:28]That was Chip Roy. That was Michael McCall. All guys who aren't coming back.

[00:50:33]It's like if those three guys aren't in the United States Congress and working their corners in their different ways.

[00:50:39]Like they I want they weren't always on the same page. They had to do different things. But they ultimately all had to kind of play this key role and use their seniority in ways that could get that money somehow tucked in there. All of them are gone. It's like who does Greg Abbott call the next time when we're in one of those spas? Ted Cruz, like look, he his seniority has grown, but he doesn't have the same kind of relationships with some of these people in the United States Senate. That's a hint. Like some people just don't like Ted Cruz now, you know, in the United States Senate. So, but Cornin had ability like he could get the establishment, you know, to help him out. the activist the see and it shows you Jeremy the the agenda of the activist uh voters who dominate the primary process much different than the general election voters and the voters who have to really rely on Washington being a place that operates where they can go and get something get things that they need. Yeah, voters aren't very strategic. Sometimes we go off our passions and feelings. Oh, I want to have a beer with that guy. But here's the thing. By going with John Corn, you know, losing John Cornin and maybe having Ken Paxton or James Talerico is that you're gonna end up in a situation where you go from somebody who could get a call with John Thun at any minute to a guy who might have to set an appointment, you know, just like and no matter who it is, right? It's like it's just a different kind of set of scenarios. And which is a great way to point out like, you know, I want I want to close the show in recognizing that John Korn was in office for a long time.

[00:52:11]He was on my first ballot when I was a voter in San Antonio as just a young pup, y'all. It's like I remember John Cornin's beginning, you know. It's like he he was a he was a waiter at the steak and ale that my me and my family used to go to a lot way beyond, you know, when you know, Cornin was there. But so I've known this guy for a long time. And it's crazy to see where we have >> You say John Porn was a waiter at the >> Yeah. At the steak in San Antonio over by the airport. Yeah. offboard 10. I know exactly where that thing is. Uh so he has a long relationship with San Antonio politics particularly. That's where he kind of rose up as we mentioned earlier. But look at how quickly this turned on him. Here's a guy that was, you know, by even his accounts. He was two votes away from becoming the Senate leader. You know, the one of the most powerful spots in all of the American government. He went from that to not winning his primary in just about we're talking maybe 13 months. That is a shocking quick, you know, turnaround to go from the king uh to nothing, you know, from being like the star on the on the on the basketball team, right? To go from being like, "Oh, I'm about to be Tim Duncan to, oh, whoa, whoa, we just put you on waivers.

[00:53:30]You're no longer gonna be that." Does he does he win this race if he's if he had won the Senate leader election?

[00:53:39]>> Maybe not. You know, I I think that's a really good I think I think the mood of the voters is still the same, right? I think those historical structural problems that Cornin had with the base was going to be there even if he was the most powerful person in the United States Senate. I think, you know, you saw that happen with Mitch Mitch McConnell. Like even though like you had people in Kentucky who wanted to change horses, you have one of the elements of power in the entire American government and you're going to give it up for a rookie because you don't like how he's been like if you're just thinking strategically who can get the Ike Dyke built, Cornin has a better shot at getting that done than certainly Ken Paxton will have. Ken Paxton's going to spend the next two years uh trying to figure out how the Senate works. It's not an easy process. Ask Ted Cruz. It took Ted Cruz a good two and a half or a term and a half to kind of really kind of get in the mode of like, okay, how do I still be me and still get some things done, right? Like he's gotten a lot more effective as a legislator as he's learned how to pick and choose battles and when to kind of team up with Democrats. Yeah, those liberal Democrats. Just this week, I see Ted Cruz, you know, teaming up with Maria Canwell, the Democrat from Washington State to try to help fix college sports, right? Like that Ted Cruz in 2012.

[00:55:02]It's hard to imagine him, right? You know, but here he is trying to figure out ways. Well, y'all, this has been a blast to go through uh another one of these like we got to get a nickname for this group here. I don't know what we'll be at some point. We're taking requests.

[00:55:16]If y'all come up with a cool nickname, you know, send it to us. We'll add it to the program. Uh, thanks a lot, Gro Jeffers, for joining the show. You know, check out his work at the Dallas Morning News, y'all. It's like he had some really good insightful column that one on John Corny. You definitely want to check that out. And John Moritz is just everywhere, y'all. It's like, you know, he had a really good piece on James Tarico that you want to kind of look at and just kind of how this guy, he had this great quote in there from Brandon Roddinghouse about how this guy looks like a choir boy, but he's much more of a boxer and puncher than you can possibly go check out that story. John Morris, awesome American Statesman.

[00:55:51]Really good piece. And y'all, this has been a wild run, right? You know, this, you know, since last October, I think we've been all burning on fumes here trying to get to this point. A lot has happened in Texas politics. I might take a week off here of the Texas Tech and come back with y'all on the uh flip side of things. But be sure to check out the Texas Tech newsletter that comes out every day. It's free and easy to sign up for. You love that, right? I don't have to pay a nickel and you get to hear my insights every single day, including the up and the down of the day. Who's up or down in Texas politics? You know, Ken Paxton, you know, was the up yesterday, right? If you were looking at this newsletter, I might make him the up all week long just because this was such a huge victory. But anyhow, thanks a lot y'all for listening to the Texas Take and we will talk to y'all soon.