Has the Iran war broken Nato?

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]the Germans are not ready yet to kind of take over that American deterrent role in terms of the troop presence in Germany that they're years away, you know, at the very least of being able to handle that. So, there's a lot of anxiety about what might be coming down the track. A >> short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.

[00:00:23]>> Today, President Trump says Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Kami was killed in the attacks.

[00:00:34]The Pentagon is weighing a takeover of that island as a way to force the reopening of the street of Hormuz.

[00:00:41]>> Iran begged for this ceasefire and we all know it.

[00:00:45]>> Does anyone really think that someone can tell President Trump what to do?

[00:00:50]>> Come on.

[00:00:52]>> I'm Venicia Rainey >> and I'm Roland Olphant >> and this is Iran the latest. It's Wednesday 6th of May 2026.

[00:00:59]It's 68 days since the war began and 29 days since the ceasefire was declared and we might be on the cusp of the war ending for real. So, our first top story today is that the United States and Iran are apparently close to agreeing a deal.

[00:01:12]That's according to Axios. Now, this is based on a one-page memorandum that apparently would require Iran to pause its nuclear enrichment while the US would agree to release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets. and then both sides would allow free passage for ships through the straight of Hormuz, which we'll be getting on to in a bit more detail later. This is apparently 14-point memorandum of understanding. It's not clear how much that aligns with the 14point proposal that the Iranians sent to the Americans over the weekend. Nothing's been agreed yet, but we're having sources from Pakistan saying that it will close very soon, that we're getting close, and the oil markets are reacting with Brent crude dropping more than 5% to a two-week low of $104 a barrel. We had Marco Rubio potentially hinting something along these lines yesterday, didn't we, Roland?

[00:01:58]>> Yes, Marco Rubio spoke to the press shortly after Pete Hgsth did we. We managed to get Hexath into uh yesterday his podcast. comments very much in the same vein. He talked about continuing the operation to get ships out of the straight of four m like heath. He emphasized that was a defensive operation, not an offensive one. Very much taking a kind of softly softly approach. No tub thumping there. And then he had this to say about where we are in the progress of the war.

[00:02:32]>> The operation epic fury is concluded. We achieved the objectives of that operation. I'm not going to, you know, we're not cheering for an additional situation to occur. We would prefer the path of peace. What the president would prefer is a deal. The the the operation is over. Uh Epic Fury is president notified Congress. We're done with that stage of it. Okay? We're now on to this project of freedom. Now, what's really important for you to report and for everyone to understand is this is not an offensive operation. This is a defensive operation. And what that means is very simple. There's no shooting unless we're shot at first. Okay? We're not attacking them. We're not. But if they are attacking us or they're attacking a ship, you need to respond to that. There is no international law that allows you to say, "I'm going to put mines in an international body of water and I'm going to blow up ships that don't listen to us and try to go through." That's what Iran is doing. This is a criminal act and someone needs to do something about it. Something needs to be done.

[00:03:26]It's completely illegal, completely illegitimate, and completely unacceptable.

[00:03:30]>> So there you have it. It's official.

[00:03:32]Marco Rubio himself, Operation Epic Fury is over. I suppose the question that that remains open is is whether that means the war itself is over or not. And the other big question of course is that Donald Trump's announcement announced in the early hours of the morning that all those things that Pete Hexith and Marco Rubio had been telling us about this uh this very important operation to get ships out of the Persian Gulf which they'd said was a very serious thing was going to continue was >> humanitarian laser focused on that and Donald Trump announced he's just pressing pause on that. He said because they were getting close to a deal with the Iranians um of some sort and that the Pakistanis and asked him to pause the operation. My suspicion, if you're interested in my suspicions, is that as we discussed on yesterday's podcast, that operation had resulted in a lot of we could euphemistically call kinetic activity. Drones, things being shot, missiles flying around again, strikes on ships, strikes on or refineries in the UAE. and it put us one step away from returning to full-scale hostility. It was easy to see how the escalation ladder could be climbed from there. My suspicion Donald Trump did not want to climb that escalation ladder and therefore could see where this was going and that's why he pressed paused on this to avoid a resumption of a full-scale war.

[00:04:51]>> Pretty short-lived even for a Trump project, but it seems like the Iranians are happy with that too. They've made a statement, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has made a statement today saying that it will reopen the straight of Hormuz. It says with the end of the aggressor's threats and in the shadow of new procedures, the possibility of safe and sustainable passage through the straight will be provided. Well, we'll wait to see what safe and sustainable passage looks like.

[00:05:15]Last I saw this morning, nothing's moving through the straight of moose for the moment. So, I think shipping companies will need something much more concrete than these sorts of statements for now. But the signs do seem to be pointing in a positive direction for the conclusion of this war. Can we say that?

[00:05:32]Well, the rhetorics, you know, I will remind you of the words of Ronan Keiting. He's only words and um words at this point are all they have to take our hearts away. That's the rhetoric. Yes.

[00:05:43]This morning, the rhetoric is looking like we're headed towards some kind of deal that will reopen the Straits of Hormuz, which we could presumably extrapolating, Venicia. I would guess that would involve the United States lifting its blockade of Iranian ports in exchange for the Iranians lifting their blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. And what the revolutionary guard mean there a huge number of questions. Are they going to start charging people? Are they going to keep that toll booth in place?

[00:06:08]>> Right? They passed a law that suggested they were going to have to charge tolls.

[00:06:12]>> All of this stuff them claiming that because um the Americans have have pressed pause on project freedom is a great victory and the Americans have gone away. The Americans haven't stopped their blockade on Iranian ports. So I don't know. It's only words for now.

[00:06:28]>> Quite well. Well, for our third story, we should look at Iran and China who are meeting today. So, Iran's foreign minister, Abbasa Ragji, has been making a massive diplomatic tour over the last few weeks, and he's now in Beijing to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. Now, this is interesting because this is Arachi's first visit to China since the war began. China obviously a key customer for Iranian oil and Iran, a key customer for a lot of Chinese exports as well. So, this is a key business relationship and it comes a week before Trump is supposed to be visiting Xi Jinping in Beijing. So, there's clearly lots of things aligning here. China has repeatedly tried to stay out of this conflict, although there have been lots of reports of it shipping potentially missile fuel to Iran, but officially it stayed neutral and it's called for an end to the conflict. And we had more of that today. It described the war as illegitimate. It's called for an immediate ceasefire and has stressed that direct meetings between the two sides are essential. And just to come back to Rubio's statement yesterday, he also mentioned China. He's asked China to put pressure on Iran to end their chokeold on the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:07:29]>> I hope the Chinese tell him what he needs to be told, and that is that what you are doing in the straits is causing you to be globally isolated. You're the bad guy in this. You You guys should not be blowing up ships. You should not be putting mines. You should not be holding hostage the global trying to hold hostage the global economy. I hope the Chinese bring whether it's done privately, but I hope it's done directly that that's the message they deliver to them. As I outlined earlier today, China is an export-driven economy. Okay? I'm not here to speak on behalf of what's in the best interest of China, but it's in the best interest of China. But it's obvious China is an export-driven economy. That means they depend on other countries to buy from them. Well, you can't buy from them if you can't ship it there. And you can't buy from them if your economy is being destroyed by what Iran is doing. So, it is in Iran, it is in China's interest that Iran stop closing the straits. It's harming China as well. China, both sides recognize, is a really key player in this, key to have on side. We can expect to see their role grow over the coming week, especially when Trump gets there next Thursday.

[00:08:26]>> Yeah. Notable to see Iran obviously getting to Beijing before Donald Trump, trying to obviously get their side of the story across to the Chinese before the Americans do. Whether that has any sway with the Chinese, what they decide is in their interests. Certainly, we know that, you know, Donald Trump clearly wanted to have this war wrapped up in a in a successful way before he, you know, shows up in a meeting with Xi Jinping. Obviously, that's not the case, which is not ideal when you're talking to your number one geopolitical rival.

[00:08:57]Whether or not this is top of the uh Chinese agenda of the talks, we don't know. And there's been some reporting that actually Chinese really want to talk about Taiwan. That's what's preoccupying them more than the Iran question. If you want to hear more about that, do go back to our episode last Thursday. We'll link to it in the show notes. We spoke to Sam Olsson, chief analyst at Sibeline, and he was speaking about exactly that, about how he thinks that the talks next week, the shadow of some sort of grand bargain about Taiwan might be on the agenda. He talks about lots of rumors flying around amongst very senior people in Washington. So, go back and check that out if you're interested in that particular strand.

[00:09:34]We're going to take a short pause.

[00:09:35]Coming up after the break, we're going to be looking at Trump's decision to pull troops from Germany and what it means for the transatlantic alliance.

[00:09:48]Welcome back. You're listening to Iran, the latest with me, Roland Olphant, and Benicia Rainey. Earlier this week, Germany's Chancellor Friedrich MS ended up in a bit of a spat with Donald Trump over the Iran war, which culminated in Mr. Trump ordering the withdrawal of 5,000 American troops from Germany. Why is this a big deal? Well, to explain it all, we spoke to James Rothell, who joined us from a train station in Germany.

[00:10:16]>> James, welcome to Around the Latest.

[00:10:18]Just walk us through. We know that the US has said it's going to withdraw 5,000 troops. That broke last week and it said that will happen over the next 6 to 12 months. Trump then came out over the weekend and said he's going to be cutting a lot further than 5,000.

[00:10:32]You're in Germany. What's the administration there actually been told is definitely happening?

[00:10:36]>> There's a bit of an argument going on here in Germany as to what prompted this, on the face of it, rather shocking decision by the United States to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany at a time of unprecedented tensions with Russia. Friedrich Mets, the German chancellor, has been accused of kind of blundering into this situation by criticizing the Trump administration's performance in the war on Iran. And it's been claimed that Trump was so angry and offended by Met's criticism that he retaliated by withdrawing the 5,000 troops. The German government itself disputes that. They say that this has been on the cards for a very long time.

[00:11:17]Uh and that they're not concerned about the decision to withdraw these soldiers.

[00:11:22]They point out that there's about 40,000 stationed in Germany. So 5,000 being taken down is for them not an enormous amount of troop losses. But as you've just said, Trump has now signaled that this is just the beginning. And that's caused a great deal of anxiety. The fact of the matter is that the Germans are not ready yet to kind of take over that American deterrent role. uh in terms of the troop presence in in Germany that they're years away, you know, at the very least of being able to handle that.

[00:11:51]So, there's a lot of anxiety about what might be coming down the track, what might follow this what now seems to be a kind of initial shot across the boughels of the of the 5,000 troops.

[00:12:01]>> We should talk about what exactly the Americans do in Germany. I'd be really interested to hear more about that. But just on that Iran link, I just want to read our listeners a quote of what President Friedick Mertz told some students last week. He said, "The Americans clearly have no strategy in the Iran war. The Iranians are obviously very skilled at negotiating, or rather very skillful at not negotiating, letting the Americans travel to Islamabad and then leave again without any result." And he added that the entire nation of America was being humiliated by Iran. In response, Trump posted on Truth Social that Mertz thought it was okay for Iran to have a nuclear weapon and doesn't know what he's talking about. So, a proper war of words there between two leaders of countries who previously had quite a good relationship. Is that right?

[00:12:41]>> Friedri Merz and Donald Trump actually got off to a pretty good start in terms of their bilateral relationship.

[00:12:46]Friedick Merz was over at the Oval Office last March, had a very very warm, cozy sitdown with Donald Trump. The president said that he was doing a great job in Germany. Uh and one really got the impression that they'd uh as I said that the relationship got off to a good start. What was very interesting about that meeting which on the surface of things went so well was that there was a moment when President Trump really laid into Pedro Sanchez the leader of Spain and Seria Starmer he was attacking them for not giving the Americans enough support on the war in Iran and Friedick Mets just kind of sat there next to the US president in the oval office didn't say anything didn't challenge it and frankly he got absolutely monstered for that back in Germany by the press and by other uh politician icians as well. They thought that was weak and meek from a German chancellor who they felt should have stood up to President Trump when he was criticizing Germany's allies in Europe. That might explain perhaps that quote that you've just read out from Mr. Mertz later on uh where he was criticizing the Americans perhaps trying to regain a bit of face after looking in the eyes of many Germans so weak during that that Oval Office meeting. that could be part of the the psycho drama if you like uh behind the scenes as well.

[00:14:05]>> James, could you just tell us what exactly do all these American troops do in Germany?

[00:14:10]>> There's about 40,000 troops stationed at various bases across Germany and the main one is a Ramstein, an air base and there's a technical role that they uh embody which is obviously not just deterrence against Russia but their sort of mere presence if you like is supposed to be a deterrence against Russia. But there's also something really symbolically important, I think, about the presence of American troops in Germany. If you remember, as part of that sort of post-war period, you had the deployment of huge numbers of soldiers there, and this was very reassuring to the German government.

[00:14:41]Many, many decades of German leadership has not wanted to invest in defense.

[00:14:46]This is what President Trump's been criticizing the Germans about so much.

[00:14:49]The Germans felt just very reassured that they had all of these guys in US military uniforms sort of moving around these bases. there was almost a kind of big brother little brother relationship going on if you see what I mean America being the big brother of course Saka which is a very important role uh in in NATO it's basically the head of NATO forces in Europe that has traditionally always been held by an American so it's not just about the troop numbers that are posted there as I said about 40,000 it's a big visible tangible example of American firepower in Germany and being part of that that effect of deterrence not for Germany itself, of course, but for the rest of Europe as well. There is another aspect to this which we should probably touch on. When the withdrawal of 5,000 troops was announced, it was also reported that at the same time as doing this, the Trump administration has cancelled uh a Biden administration era pledge to send long range missiles to Germany. So, those are now not arriving in Germany. And that's to some extent an even bigger concern than the draw down of troops because the German government doesn't actually have the means to replace uh those long ranged defensive missiles that were due to be posted in Germany as well.

[00:16:03]>> James, how important, if at all, are these American facilities in Germany for the prosecution of the war in Iran? I don't think they're hugely important for the prosecution of the war in Iran, but my understanding is that there are some German bases including Ramstein air base uh which are being used by the Americans as a kind of form of you could say a coordination role.

[00:16:27]>> So how big a dent would this put then for the German defense? I know they're still building up. They've been on this massive program of rearmament. Ziton vendor under Olaf Schultz is being continued now under Friedick Mertz and you've written extensively about all of this. How big a problem is this? You mentioned the long-range missiles, but the troops being withdrawn, is it an issue for Germans defense?

[00:16:46]>> I think the withdrawal of the 5,000 troops is not on the surface of things a huge deal uh in terms of numbers. You know, we're talking about a total deployment of US forces of about 40,000.

[00:16:57]If that number had been, for the sake of argument, 20,000 or 15,000, that might have given the Germans not much more concern. The caveat to that is that the Trump administration has kind of hinted that more withdrawals may be coming and some German officials are trying to put a brave face on this. They make the argument that they've known ever since the first Trump administration that the Americans have been uh keen to withdraw and that this is actually an opportunity uh for Germany which is trying to increase its own recruiting numbers anyway uh to kind of replace some of those US soldiers with German soldiers of their own. As you point out, Friedick Mets, the German chancellor, has vowed to make uh the German army, well, he said he wants it to be the strongest conventional army in Europe. Replacing those 5,000 lost American soldiers with Germans perhaps could be a step towards doing that. So, there are some in the German government who are trying to uh as it were make the most of a disappointing situation for them. And >> there's a broader context here, isn't there? We had Donald Tusk, the leader of Poland on Saturday. He wrote that the greatest threat to the transatlantic community are not its external enemies but the ongoing disintegration of our alliance i.e. NATO. And he said we must all do what it takes to reverse this disastrous trend. The disintegration of NATO is a story that's you know we've been reporting on and off the last few years. We all know that Trump is not a massive fan of NATO. He managed to get everyone to boost their defense budgets to 5% last year. But the Iran war has really tested a lot of that alliance.

[00:18:22]Trump has also suggested pulling American troops from Italy and Spain who've refused to play any part in the Iran war. What do you think are going to be the broader ramifications of this move?

[00:18:31]>> I think that it's the US administration sending a very clear signal that it wants Europe to look after itself when it comes to defense. The waters have been muddied slightly by the timing of this announcement of the 5,000 soldiers because it followed that war of words between President Trump and Friedick Mets. uh it has been perceived whether it's true or not it's certainly been perceived as kind of retaliation for the way that the German chancellor criticized the war effort. If you look at the longerterm trajectory here, certainly if you speak to officials in NATO itself, they will say that Europe becoming more independent on security is very much part of the long-term plan.

[00:19:08]And I think they have ultimately try to put a brave face on this as a result of that. But as you point out, Donald Tusk has already openly said that this is an example of NATO disintegrating. And I think one of the problems that we've got here is that Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland, you know, he calls it how he sees it. He speaks very frankly. There are other voices in NATO and NATO allies who they're really reluctant to say openly in public just how sort of worried they are about this. There's obviously been concerns for a very long time now about the much more kind of sympathetic approach that this Trump administration has taken towards Russia.

[00:19:43]Uh the question of whether that's being fueled by the kind of MAGA wing of the party or elsewhere is you know obviously part of that debate. I think sometimes when we see officials from NATO and NATO allied countries saying, "Oh, nothing to see here. We knew that we've been expected uh, you know, to to become more independent of the United States for some time." Some of those folks are saying it because it is indeed the case in the long term that's what Europe needs to do. But I think some are just as I said trying to put a brave face on this frankly quite alarming situation where you've got interessign warfare to some extent happening within the NATO alliance itself and that's exactly what Donald Tusk was alluding to >> James Rothwell our Berlin correspondent in a train station in Germany. Thanks very much for joining us on around the latest.

[00:20:28]>> Thank you.

[00:20:32]>> Telegraph Berlin correspondent James Rothwell speaking to us there.

[00:20:36]>> That's all for today's episode of Around the Latest. We'll be back again tomorrow. Until then, goodbye. A feed is in.

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