Why Tesla's Robotaxi Buildout Is Bigger Than It Looks

[00:00:00]Let's go back to Tesla and we're talking about robo taxi. One of the things that came out this week was there is a robo taxi depot in Dallas for Worth in Irving, Texas that was discovered. It's for storage, service and repair of autonomous vehicle fleet, 212 remote fleet parking spaces, 64 building spaces, 17 EV charging stations, cleaning, tire replacement, everything 247. So this is uh zone the I think the letter of intent that was submitted to get permit for this and then of course this builds on top of the uh the one we already knew heard about last week on Las Vegas and then apparently it's fairly both the same size the same car wash um facilities. So what what are you thinking about this uh CERN?

[00:00:48]>> Well, it's further evidence that Tesla doesn't do anything in a small way. uh very clearly and we all understand this that while it looks like they're tiptoeing right now in robo taxi and it's frustrating for everybody they are working towards building a massive massive robo taxi business and yeah there'll be investments along the way there'll be plenty of them they'll probably try some things and maybe some cities and maybe not others they'll work out some of the some of the challenges but we're going to continue to see an investment here and one day we're going to see a massive roll out of the fleet and they just have to figure out all the things behind the scenes that they're working on that that we are not aware of what the potential issues might be.

[00:01:24]We've been told that that they're not really safety critical type things as far as the software goes, but clearly now there's also infrastructure that needs to be built out and they're starting that process of doing that and so we should be very encouraged by that.

[00:01:36]>> What's your guys guess the panel here?

[00:01:38]Like if there's 212 remote fleet parking spaces, there's 17 EV charging stations.

[00:01:44]What is this capable of capacity for a robo taxi? Are we talking 200 cars or talking a thousand cars? I think this is this is just a service location. So, it's going to be many times the number of spots that are here in terms of the fleet size and we don't know the the the the uh coverage area that is included in this, but it could be, you know, several several cities. So, I mean, they're going to go pretty big. I think again Elon wants this service to be more ubiquitous and not this thing where you've got to kind of hunt and peck and find a car that you know may or may not come to you if you're in a suburb versus a city. I think he really wants robo taxi to be the change the way that people travel. And I think Uber did that with um just before Uber like no Uber at all to where we are today. But I think this just takes it to a whole new level.

[00:02:41]So you're going to need all this ancillary stuff. So I think this is when you're seeing the capex spend from Tesla increasing significantly.

[00:02:50]Here you go. This is part of it.

[00:02:52]>> Mhm. And you're expecting this to be the automated robotic uh cleaning, right?

[00:02:58]This is it. How is that going to work, Jeeoff? Is it like a car wash thing where they come in one side, they leave the exit the other side, or is it going to be a lot of base? think that maybe that's what that me I was wondering what they meant when they said that there's 64 building spaces. Maybe that's what that is.

[00:03:12]>> Well, it is going to be automated and they designed the car for this which is fascinating. A lot of companies struggle with connecting all this together and and actually implementing things in design. It's one of the most challenging things with automation is what do you have to change in the product and is it a trade-off for the consumer or not. So that you see the way the seats are designed. Everything is designed to minimize friction and have uh uh basically kind of xaxis access axis access access throughout the entire vehicle x and yaxis and and and they thought about this honestly from day one. And the whole idea was is why is there a human in the loop? It goes back to things like, you know, all inputs error, but really why, you know, why does this need to exist? And if it does, can it be automated? And I tell you, these places were not designed to have any human, you know, repetitive operation.

[00:04:19]>> Oh wow. Okay. So, a lot of investment.

[00:04:21]And my guess is that they're bays, their bays, and each one, you know, will have the automated and then it goes out.

[00:04:29]Doesn't have to go through a line. Okay.

[00:04:30]Okay. But that's a that's a signal that Tesla feels like it's getting better.

[00:04:35]And the latest data, the safety data that just draw from Nitsa about Tesla's robo taxi service shows that it's actually safer than we've all thought.

[00:04:43]And this time around, Tesla actually unredacted their reporting of their incidents, which means that they tell you a lot more uh paragraphs of what actually happened. And there was there's now been 17 incidents since June of last year, ever since robo taxi was launched in Austin. And the robo taxi tracker was able to use AI to look at all these narratives. And it it classified 53% of them as others at fault, only 41% of them as Tesla's fault, which makes it seven. Seven that was Tesla's fault. Uh and then Reigns did a full analysis and he is now saying that Tesla's robo taxi is 1.8 81 times safer than humans as of April 2026 based on uh his analysis of how you compare it um of how many you know incidents by miles per accident.

[00:05:34]And by the way, this includes the curb rashes. So it it's >> way understated.

[00:05:40]>> Yeah, >> because because I don't report curb rashes. I I rolled into a curb yesterday [clears throat] in my Cyber Truck parking at a hotel. I didn't report that to anybody.

[00:05:48]>> Yeah, you're embarrassed. You're too He's too ashamed. He's too >> There's nothing to report. I mean, it it didn't [laughter] damage anything, but apparently in in a robo taxi, that's a reportable incident.

[00:05:58]>> Yeah.

[00:05:59]>> Yeah. I don't understand. I I tell you, coming from the product development world, you have to get this reporting correct and meaningful so you're working on the right things. And I think Tesla knows Tesla has so much data. I think they do. They know what they need to work on. Anyway, I I think it's moving in the right direction. If you look at it since January, um it is it is moving in the right direction.

[00:06:27]>> Okay. Uh let's move on. Then the next uh big thing that happened this week was uh FSE supervised was approved in Lithuania. Remember Netherlands approved FSD on April 11th and then based on that approval, the Dutch RDW, we're waiting for the EU member states, 28 of them to maybe vote on it. Maybe that's going to happen in June. Maybe that will be in September. But in the meantime, we have other countries that are saying, "Forget, we don't need to wait for that group. We're going to go ahead and approve it." Lithuania steps up, approves FSD. Greece said that they wanted to be second, but they obviously got beaten by Lithuania, so they are probably going to approve it in June.

[00:07:07]Um, and then Case is just making fun of Sweden because they're going, "But can it handle straight highway?" They're still asking questions. So, this is happening though. It's um Belgium. And by the way, Belgium also said that they wanted approved. One region of Belgium, there's two regions in Belgium. One already said we wanted approved and the second region came out and said, "Hey, we agree with the first region, Fleming.

[00:07:30]We wanted to approve, too." So So it looks like Belgium and Greece, Lithuania will all probably happen within uh you know, within a month. Thoughts on that?

[00:07:39]Uh CERN?

[00:07:40]>> Well, it's great to see. It's long overdue. Uh Europe continues to astound about just how slow and quote unquote careful they're being, but it's progress. It's good. Um you know, it's long overdue.

[00:07:53]>> Proud of Lithuania. That's where my family come from and so very proud of them. Um I think that uh Europe is displaying exactly why there's been no growth in that continent in 10 years.

[00:08:10]It's locked in stasis.

[00:08:13]>> That's about it. Yeah.

[00:08:15]>> And I have a I have a thesis about China. FSA in China. You guys tell me if I'm wrong here. So FSA in China, we saw that Elon visited with President Trump.

[00:08:26]But so far there's been no announcements, not just Tesla, but other companies as well. But in the meantime, we're seeing Tesla China hire, I don't know, six different positions. All of them marked urgent. all of them regarding uh AI and I think what's happening there for FSD specifically and I think what's happening is they are they're hiring these positions to now go out and capture the data that the Chinese government will say oh look if you can show us you know the final data of of how good FSD is in China rows because remember they they let them have I think some people think 500 cars like some limited number of cars are able to use FSD there very limited they need to capture the actual data to prove before they'll prove it. And I think we heard the CFO of Tesla say in the last earnings call that he expects FSE to be proven in China in Q3 or do you think that it's going to happen sooner than that? Well, I think I think the hiring is a a signal again. Uh Tesla wouldn't be hiring all these people if they hadn't already seen the path forward.

[00:09:31]>> I think it's imminent and just unpredictable. I don't think they know exactly. I think this is new for the regions, the the host countries, and it's new for Tesla. So, I think they're going to struggle on precise dates in some cases, in most cases. But it I agree with you, Herbert. The the job postings are signal and it tells you it's it's more imminent than long-term, I'd say, in terms of timing.

[00:09:58]>> The only thing I would add is is that each country is following, you know, their own process. And I think we can sit here and say that's a silly process or they're being too cautious and all that, but at the end of the day, they're going to follow the process that they they want to follow. Um, China certainly, I think, would clearly greatly benefit from autonomous driving technology. Uh, a lot of the videos on the internet of accidents, uh, astounding accidents seem to come out of China.

[00:10:29]um as well as uh historically it was like Eastern European countries but in recent years a lot of the great accidents come out of China. So um China can really benefit from this. It's in their interest to have autonomous driving technology. It's also going to help I think spur competition in their country from their own providers and so I would expect Tesla to get this approval sooner rather than later. What does that mean? In the next few months.

[00:10:53]Yeah.