In investment management, trust is more valuable than short-term returns; successful investing requires disciplined processes, emotional management, and long-term commitment rather than seeking quick gains. The finance industry fundamentally operates on trust management rather than money management, meaning that building and maintaining client trust through consistent, ethical behavior and transparent communication is the true foundation of success, while the biggest risk to any investor is their own deviation from disciplined decision-making.
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EP. 17 | The Ultimate Guide on Wealth, Risk, and Long-Term Investing | Nilesh Shah
Added:Other than your parent, someone else is interested in your financial well-being.
Entrepreneurs of India, they are not sector but they are one segment which will surprise the world on the upside.
And I said look I am your investment manual. I have outperformed everyone.
I'm outperforming even equity fund. What more do you want?
What should the Indian government and businesses do to ensure that we don't get trapped in the lowest and most capital inensive part of the AI value chain?
>> The government didn't put any restriction on Naran Morti on Azim Premi on Shiv Nader and so many such entrepreneurs. In 2003, I went to my boss and said, "Look, interest rates came down from 14% to 5%.
Our fixed income funds have delivered better return than equity, but now I don't see them delivering return." And people are investing with the same expectation.
But we need to communicate to them that that is not the case. We need to actually ask them to redeem from our funds. The returns are not always in terms of money I would say. Yeah.
>> But it's in terms of the trust earned or gained.
>> You don't require surname of Tata Bir Amani Adani to raise money. If your idea is powerful, if people can trust you, they are happy to put money on you. So this sangum of talent, capital and infrastructure is going to create growth of India. We have always believed in the whole world is my family and we wish good for everyone. The world order is best.
If you are mighty, you can take the world for a right. When you go to a doctor, you don't say you get me cured in 24 hours. If you have diabetes, you'll take medicine probably for life.
Results don't come instantly.
Same thing long-term investing your adviser won't create overnight result but if you follow that discipline you will get the results eventually.
Investment is all about managing in emotions rather than behaving rationally.
>> [music] >> So here is another episode of clearing the blur and this time we have a very special guest who needs no introduction on Nillesa. Nillesh by it's a pleasure to have you on the show.
>> Thank you.
>> Yeah, thanks for being here.
>> Thank you.
>> I think this is one episode I was so looking forward to for a while. Uh we will cover a lot of diverse topics but I think before we get on to those uh we'll quickly start with a ritual that we have on our show with a rapid fire.
>> Yeah.
>> Are you ready? [laughter] Uh one investment principle that you would never compromise on.
>> Rule number one never lose money. Rule number two never forget. Rule number one, >> gold, equities or real estate. If you had to choose only one for the next 20 years, which one would you pick?
>> I'll choose all three.
>> All three. Okay. A balanced portfolio.
>> Absolutely.
>> And uh one financial mistake you see young investors repeatedly making >> other than your parent, someone else is interested in your financial well-being and they start following tips and social media messages and Telegram channels.
That doesn't work. And they're literally losing money both ways, right? The fraudsters and also >> Yes.
>> Thinking that there's easy way to make money on tips.
>> Yes. One economic indicator you personally watch very closely maybe every day.
>> So I have always believed in the data and uh whenever there is real data like cement production, automobile sales, GST collection, they are far better than the inferences. trust data and go for that.
>> Okay. And one sector in India that you think will surprise the world.
>> I think entrepreneurs of India, they are not sector but they are one segment which will surprise the world on the upside. We were always exporting talent and will recognize that. Now that talent is staying back. that talent of entrepreneurial pull will surprise the world.
>> Awesome. We have this ritual of our guests asking a question for the next uh guest. So we have a question for you from KVS manion of federal bank. His question is what should the Indian government and businesses do to ensure that we don't get trapped in the lowest and most capital intensive part of the AI value chain. Exactly what they did with Indian IT industry allowed them to flourish.
The government didn't put any restriction on Naran Morti on Azim Prem gi on Shiv Nadada and so many such entrepreneurs they encouraged them supported them they were away from the draconian license permit of India. Same thing we have to replicate in AI.
>> Awesome. Wonderful rapid fire section.
Thank you for that. We'll now move move into a more detailed discussion. So growing up in a 250 ft chaw shaped your worldview very early and I've listened to your interviews and podcasts earlier.
There are some fascinating stories of of how your school principal set a target for you and you seem to have got the right mentors along the way uh that set the bar for you and today from that kind of a background today you are managing six uh lakh cr in a AUM that's a fascinating journey so my question is what are some things that you've learned back then that you are applying even today and what's that one thing that has dramatically changed >> so one education is key. We could escape the poverty because we were educated.
Like I had gone and offered to my mother that I'll stop uh going to school and start working and run the house and she said nothing doing all of you are going to study and study well and that's why we are here where we are. So education is key. Second, there are so many good people in the world who keep on supporting you. You just have to believe in that that something good will happen.
Uh throughout my journey I have received incredible help and support from people and it is because of their support I have reached where I am. I think when you have opportunity you should reciprocate the world will become better. Third there's no substitute to hard work. There's no option but to work hard to over to change your orbit or to overcome your limitation.
And that has continued with me. I don't know much about AI but I I'll keep on learning. I'll keep on reading. I'll keep on talking to people like Deepakbai and keep on learning to ensure that I'll be something in AI.
>> And despite all your achievements, you still call yourself the student of the market. That shows market student of the market, >> right? And and what's that one thing that you have changed also like uh things that you know right now that you wish you had known earlier?
>> See on the personal side I haven't uh changed much.
There were good experiences, bad experiences but net the good overweight the bad so much. So there was no need to change on personal side. But on the professional side when you were running a small team let's say as a fund manager as chief investment officer you were far more compassionate about the humans about your team members. You were not willing to take tough decision.
You always pass the buck to the CEO saying that manage.
But when you become CEO, you had to give the feedback. Without feedback, how will a person know that he or she is making an error and there's a need for course correction.
>> So one thing which professionally has changed. Earlier I was shy of giving the bad feedback. Good feedback it was very easy to give.
>> Bad feedback then.
But as CEO now I have learned the art of giving the honest feedback including bad feedback.
>> Right. Great. Thank you. and uh neshw I have seen you both personally professionally from inside from outside for now I think almost a decade and uh >> I think you are admired uh not just by investors but the entire community a lot >> and I think you have still kept your head uh balanced uh approachable humble but I think most importantly I've seen uh the way with this whole kota uh asset management business the way you built from where it started. Uh and that's why I said I've seen it closely but I think one of the paramount things I've seen is the trust and I think you have uh often said that uh the finance the industry itself it's ultimately about uh trust management rather than money management.
So I think in that context uh my first question is uh what experience uh in your early career uh especially during your time at Templeton uh and later during the leadership roles uh reinforce that belief of you.
>> So I owe everything to Templeton to teach me about investment management.
When I joined Templeton, I was a trader who made money by trading for almost seven years at ICICI and I brought the same skill in managing money. My job is to make maximum money possible.
>> One day my boss called me saying that we need to prepare investment manual and I said look I am your investment manual. I have outperformed everyone.
I'm outperforming even equity fund. What more do you want? He was kind enough to take me outside for a cup of coffee. He said, "Nh, today you are managing X amount.
Tomorrow you'll be managing 100x.
Today you are managing yourself.
Tomorrow you'll have a team working below you. Would you like to give them the same flexibility or would you like them to put some boundaries?" I said of course boundaries >> he said that's why you need investment manual >> that was my learning that disciplined investment process is extremely important >> and I guess over the years I'm successful because that foundation was laid second there was a time when our fixed income fund was about 6,000 cr in size temple became second largest asset management company after UTI And it was all because of lot of uh fundamental things which Templeton taught us in terms of communicating with distributors focusing upon concepts like SIP and they were saying that we have to always keep investor first all these things was done but in 2003 I went to my boss and said look interest rates came down from 14% to 5%. Our fixed income funds have delivered better return than equity but now I don't see them delivering return and people are investing with the same expectation >> but we need to communicate to them that that is not the case we need to actually ask them to redeem from our funds and uh he said yeah if that is the right thing to do let's do it I said our funds will come down by probably 50 60 70%.
He said what is in client's interest we have to do.
>> Yes.
>> Instead of discouraging me that you will reduce our business temple actually encouraged saying that do what is right for the investors we launched a floating rate fund India's first floating rate fund so that people can shift from fixed rate fund which will get hurt when interest rates go up to a floating rate fund. There was hardly floating rate market yet they backed us on the innovation side. The entire fixed income industry communicated in one voice get out of duration get into liquid fund equity hybrid floating rate and so on and so forth. The 6,000 cr fund became probably 200 cr and yet templeton encouraged that. So all those experiences kind of pushed me to realize that I'm not in the job of managing money alone.
I'm in the job of managing trust. That goodwill which we earned over the decade over the years in Templeton continued for decades. No absolutely awesome. I think there's a great story that uh the returns are not always in terms of money I would say >> but it's in terms of the trust earned or gained >> but that is I think a long long term and I've seen even recently at kota >> you had taken certain market market calls >> of stopping or uh the investment flows into certain high volatility so I I've seen that some of that stories even in last >> and all those things Deepak by gets reflected in our interaction with customer very recently me and my wife had gone for a concert and as we there was an interval and we were going out one investor came to meet me and I was worried for last two years we haven't delivered return he'll say nesh byra and he came and said nesh by thank you told my wife that your husband works really hard and we are so thankful to him he has made lot of money for us And then like my wife moved further. So I thanked him saying that wife [laughter] and he said you don't know what my actual direct portfolio is doing.
>> You have saved me enough money by keeping me in mutual fund.
>> Absolutely. I think protecting downside is important. Not every day you can just keep >> all those statements come when they believe that yes I can trust this guy.
>> Yes for two years there's no return in equity. But over a period of time they will still compound.
>> Absolutely. I think uh we are going through these complex cycles of market and I think in the current complex financial markets I think the question just connected to that is uh not just your learning but broadly for institutions uh how do they rebuild and maintain that trust with retail investors.
So trust is earned over years of hard work and it can be lost in a second and which is where we have to build the culture in the organization that we will do what is right for customer.
There are many complaints I receive.
We immediately respond to it. Earlier when complaints used to come many times you will feel But then I realized that all those complaints are actually a chance for us to improve further. So in all my communication to customers, I will say we'll learn from this mistake or omission and improve our services.
Uh this becomes then the culture of the organization.
If we say that client first, if we execute that client first and if we demonstrate that client first, eventually organization DNA becomes client first. Then whatever we do will increase the trust of the investors.
>> Yeah, I was just going to say you often use the example of a test cricket, right? Instead of a T20, I think this is test cricket in action.
>> This is test cricket where you keep on building your inning and ensure that you don't make that mistake which will get you out, >> right? And you have to stay at the crease to be able to even prove.
>> That's a good one. Um so I have a two-part question. One is on the growth model, right? One is um I think the whole uh asset uh industry uh depends on uh distribution, trust and there is performance. These are three angles. So can you give us a flavor for the opportunities and challenges across all three? Uh so just to uh give a cue on this question uh for example distribution you would rely on the bank right for distribution is that a ceiling that you naturally get in or how do you escape that ceiling and in terms of performance in this volatile environment how do you think about that that's part one part two is a larger India question what is something that's happening with India right now that most people miss structurally >> so let me take the second part first and bring it to First today in India we are seeing thirwani sanum of talent capital and infrastructure coming together earlier talent used to go abroad for opportunity now also some people go but a lot are staying back second earlier we had limited infrastructure now our infrastructure bearing few areas is reasonable I wouldn't say it is more than adequate but it is reasonable and most importantly capital is available for an idea. You don't require surname of Tata Bir Amani Adani to raise money.
If your idea is powerful, if people can trust you, they are happy to put money on you. So this sangum of talent, capital and infrastructure is going to create growth of India. Now in our business brand the performance the distribution all matters but most important is the brand >> right >> a brand brings trust confidence I am lucky that I have mother brand Kotak it opens door for me of course thereafter I have to perform I have to reach out but the brand the mother brand which is there it makes a big difference in financial services in India you have not a homogeneous customer base it's heterogeneous so there will be customer who will require physical touch there'll be customer who will require digital footprint there'll be customer who will be mix of physical and digital we'll have to deliver on all channel if I depend only on one channel let's say my parent bank to distribute that's not going to work >> right >> they are less than 2% of industry I have to work with 98% also second why will I expect my parent to distribute me just because I'm there they will distribute what is right for their customer and I have to be qualified enough to ensure that they think it is appropriate for me for them to distribute me so for me 100% of distributors are same they will sell me if I perform they will not sell me if I don't perform So we'll have to create one through our practice communication and execution brand which can create trust create distribution channel physical digital and combined so that I can reach out to maximum number of customers then perform so that I can retain that trust and confidence.
>> Awesome. And just to follow up on that you work with the PM directly um on on economic affairs of the country. So what are some things that you're looking forward to let's say 10 years from from now what are some things that will surprise us and keeping Vix Bat in mind.
So again it's a honor to be part of the part-time member of PM's economic advisory council.
uh we can share our opinion freely and frankly and uh that sharing of information and knowledge kind of helps in creating right policies.
My feeling is that over next 10 year or so we will see India which is laying the foundation for the vixit bharat below $2,000 per capita GDP. Roti capra makan is the critical thing. Above that you start focusing on education, healthcare, tourism, travel, all kinds of things. We will create inclusive growth.
We will move probably from under $3,000 per capita to somewhere around $5,000 to $6,000 per capita.
We will have enough money to spend on comforts and luxuries rather than just the necessities. There will be more Olympic winners coming out of India.
There will be more innovation coming out of India. There will be more pride about being an Indian. So we will see a transformation of India. In some sense we will reach where we were 2,000 years back. The leading economy of the world which used to attract students from all over the world to Tuasila and Nalanda which used to attract travelers from all over the world to figure out how India was what Indian culture was. We were pioneer and leader in science in arts.
The same thing will happen. We'll go back to where we were earlier.
>> That's an inspiring story. Thank you. So Nish by just continuing on what Rajie uh had asked I think you had described India's role in global economy uh evolving from a coach uh to becoming an engine of growth. Uh I think the question I have is uh what does it uh practically transitions into from uh in terms of India's uh economic influence and uh investment landscape because we still uh look at global flows into India be in infra to fi coming into every sector and and I think we are also going through a a kind of a geopolitical challenge. So while I think India to some extent is uh insular but not you cannot completely insulate yourself right >> uh so I think as we think ahead how does this translate into India's influence globally >> so if we look at India in 1947 we would have been ahead of Japan in per capita GDP 1960 and South Korea were similar 1980 B and China were similar today all Those countries are far ahead of us.
>> Yes.
>> Which is why I said in the past we were coach of the global growth train.
Now we have become on an incremental basis much higher contributor to global growth. On a purchasing power parity basis >> it's almost in double digit. on a dollar basis also it is still in high single digit clearly now with US and China world will focus on India how it is growing our growth rate will impact global growth rate also now we have to remember that this is happening because we are 145 cr people many other countries are far smaller and yet [clears throat] they are punching far above their weight So we have a long distance to cover but undoubtedly we have now moved from being a follower of global growth to impacting global growth.
Now how do we leverage this further?
>> When you are $300 billion economy like in the '90s your savings rate would have been let's say 30% $90 billion >> your investment would have been 25% let's say $75 billion.
Now obviously I'm talking about 1990s level not today's level >> but today one company Samsung is probably investing far more in R&D >> it's not appletoapple comparison but just to give a context >> as our economy grows today we are about little under 4 trillion that itself will create savings of about 1.2 2 $1.3 trillion.
>> We will be investing close to a trillion dollar.
The size has gone up. It gives us flexibility. It gives us resources to do what we want to do.
>> Right?
>> More importantly, we get integrated with global supply chain geopolitical.
We will get impacted by what happens in the world. But can I improve my immunity? My economic size, my economic growth is creating that immunity.
>> And simple example in COVID time we had to, you know, run around the world to get oxygen and medicine and stuff like that, right? We could run vaccine not only for us but also for the world because we had the capacity.
>> Absolutely. So we need to be focusing upon economic growth which gives us better immunity to geopolitical shocks.
No >> absolutely I think uh what resonates is uh as you get scale continue to grow and also be more stable.
>> Yes. uh I think world is today looking at a lot more stability and predictability uh both in terms of policy and also in terms of how the countries operate in context to the rest of the world.
>> Absolutely. And I think when FIS were pulling out a lot of money last year or so, I think it's domestic investors including the asset management companies, they went and invested which is another way I would say Indians investing in India and trusting >> uh the growth a lot more. But I think uh increasingly I think we are getting into a more of I would say a geopolitical competition right critical minerals to the supply chain disruptions to leveraging or weaponizing uh trade in many ways. And also I think we're dealing with a fair amount of instability. So uh so I think typically when there was cooperation between countries or and how you build I think it was a very different space but in current context and environment uh how do you think India should position itself strategically?
So we have always believed in basudam the whole world is my family and we wish good for everyone.
The world order is best.
If you are mighty you can take the world for a right.
Now we have all seen benefit when to a great extent US established international rule of law.
The whole world prospered because there was cooperation.
There were exceptions to that cooperation but by and large >> it was free flowing trade.
Maritime lines were open. supply chains widen got integrated and we created one of the most prosperous era of growth.
Hundreds of millions of people got lifted from poverty.
Now for India we need to be focused on our interest.
We have to maintain relationship with Russia which provides us large part of our defense equipment with China who is our large trade partner and also competitor with US with whom we have great relationship in terms of trade and business not necessarily at this context in terms of political.
I think we have to pursue vasuvakutumbakam along with spirit of keeping India first.
>> Yeah.
>> And this combination can create miracle as I mentioned in covid time astrazenekica's IPR on vaccine and serum's capacity to manufacture those vaccine almost save half of eligible humanity by providing vaccine. Yes, >> very few countries provided vaccine of this scale and size to others.
We kept India's interest first because Indians were provided vaccine. We kept world's interest because excess capacity was given to them and it was vasuvakam because Astraenekica's IPR our manufacturing created good for both. I think that's the model we have to pursue.
keep India first but at the same time follow Vasuvumbakam for the rest of the world.
>> I think multi-alignment and ensuring there's value for everyone.
>> Yeah.
>> To coexist and create a better future together rather than trying to win at somebody else's expense.
>> Absolutely.
>> I think that win-win mindset is the differentiator here.
>> Yes.
>> Great. So now uh switching gears into technology after having spoken about geopolitical issues now there's a big disruption in the form of AI that's coming in. So I wanted your perspective on how transformative you think AI is going to be uh in the financial services space. What are some new opportunities that are going to unfold and what are some areas that are going to fundamentally change?
>> So AI is transforming everything not just finance.
First it will transform the way we are collecting data and analyzing data. Now realtime tracking of that data is possible at every user level.
Second, it will also mean immediate transmission of knowledge.
Earlier I had some advantage because as an institution I had privilege access to data compared to a retail investor. not inside a trading but because I had access to you know Bloomberg terminals or writers terminals or regulators briefing or press conferences or a management meeting. I was getting information advantage or a symmetry over a retail investor with AI all those things are gone. I was also gaining advantage because of my gray hair and experience.
When this Gulf War broke open, I could go back to my memory and see what happened in the '90s when there was Gulf War. Today with AI, a novice can also do the same analysis and in fact he might be better because they will be driven by data. I will be driven by my own biases.
So information asymmetry is going away.
There is a level playing field between a retail investor sitting in Timbuktu and an institutional investor sitting in Mumbai.
The other thing is analysis.
When you are dependent upon human for analysis, there are chances that something might be missed out.
>> But when you are leveraging AI for analysis, you are not going to miss anything. Now put all these things into portfolio management, fund management.
You are able to analyze data better. You are able to get data quickly. You are able to not miss anything which is important or critical. Your decision making improves.
More importantly, you are able to communicate that decision making quite nicely to the rest of the world. So artificial intelligence is going to change the way we are managing funds. we have no option but to leverage otherwise get outdated >> right and followup question to that when claude code suddenly said you know we are ready for cobalt a lang programming language that's used in the mainframes that very day IBM stock plunged I think 20%. Sure.
>> So how do you see AI impacting our IT services industry or in the world at large? So yesterday there was some announcement that Claude is now getting into design. Uh Adobe and a lot of other companies are now probably uh feeling anxious about this. How do you see disruption happening in the light of all of this?
>> So one IBM stock recovered all the correction in next few days as IBM was able to communicate to investors that what cloud.ai AI is doing on cobalt we have already been doing and working on it. It's just that they didn't advertise it in the language which AI company announced it. If I see let's say from the Indian context there will be three ways in which our companies will evolve.
One the mindset.
There are companies who will say oh AI the second will say look when typewriter got replaced by computer jobs of typist disappeared but more jobs were created on the computer side >> right >> let's focus on leveraging AI to create more growth automatically jobs will follow so one is the mindset there's a batsman who is tentative front foot back foot the guy who's on the front foot, he can hit the ball by taking risk. The guy who is on the back foot, he can probably wait a little fraction more and still play the shot. But if you're in between, then you don't know what you are doing.
Second, there will be entrepreneurs who will develop LLMs.
There will be entrepreneurs who will develop apps on various LLMs. We have seen in voice AI, Maya 1, Luna coming out. There'll be more and more such applications.
LLM is the highway built by someone.
We'll have to pay toll for using it. But if I run a bus on it, there will be more passengers traveling in my bus helping pay the toll as well as earn money for myself.
Second, there will be serv kind of LLM which is made in India.
In most of the LLMs outside of India, there is fear that there is backd dooror. There is fear about data secrecy, data privacy.
If we can position serum as one which has no backdoor, it can become an alternative in Middle Eastern market, African market, Latin American market, Eastern European market and Southeast Asian market.
Third, there will be a big opportunity of enterprise AI. Today, to leverage AI, you require data. In organization, data is stored all over the place. They will need someone to arrange the data, >> secure the data, run LLMs, get output, ensure that that output is available to right person.
AI itself could be a fairly large opportunity.
Netnet in this AI world there will be winners and losers in Indian IT company.
People who have the mindset to leverage opportunity, they will do well.
>> Sure. I think just continuing on this it's it's phenomenal because I think we are all uh somewhere in between like that batsman right? Yeah. you don't know whether to move the front and hit or defend >> and I think that's what is the state of many enterprises individuals so I think uh in that context I remember uh you had compared humans using AI to Iron Man wearing a suit >> y >> and uh amplifying human capability uh I think the question is uh in today's context of course not the IT industry but every single role today in with agentic AI models you're saying a agent can do a job better than say what a product manager can do a contact center agent can do someone sitting in operations uh sales can run so I think every single role today across industry you're saying that can you even doctors >> uh so I'm not just talking about financial service or just large enterprises uh how should uh professionals think uh about staying relevant in this whole AI augmented economy.
>> So many many years ago I had asked u futurologist what profession should I choose for my two daughters who are very young and where they will remain relevant from a job point of view employment point of view. So one he said u make one of your daughter hair stylist and I said that's barber right?
>> Yeah.
>> He said no >> in future even if there are robots doing everything a human will be fairly uncomfortable >> giving >> giving the head to the human for cutting hair.
>> Right?
>> So 5,000 years ago also barber job was human driven. M >> 5,000 years down the line also it might be human-driven.
>> Yeah.
>> The limited point was that you go for a skill which will be valued which will be appreciated.
I said if you leave aside that what other job? He said storytelling and I said >> he said yeah a day will come when humans will be communicating to each other through electronic medium they'll forget the art of storytelling.
So again the focus was on a skill which is human which is emotions and which can be replaced by artificial intelligence very quickly. So as a professional I'll have no option but to focus upon skills which are human emotional where there is judgment where there is balance >> where probably AI will find it bit difficult to do it at this point of time. No, absolutely. I think I agree.
Uh probably empathy, emotion.
>> Yeah.
>> Uh consciousness, uh I think a lot of things where you have to start looking at value systems probably a lot more stronger because when the tasks are getting done better with AI.
>> Yeah.
>> I think humans have to evolve and one of our previous shows uh we did speak about how do we raise human consciousness in the AI world.
>> Yeah. uh but I think uh continuing from this uh which sectors uh in India do you think uh will benefit most from AI from productivity because India also as a country we saw right from Aadhaar effect right that we have many population scale problem there is a lot of data asymmetry I think be it in education healthcare uh many of these sectors we still I think need tools to serve 1.4 4 billion people right but if you were to pick few sectors that you think would definitely drive better productivity and I'm not talking in terms of job losses I think the western world relates productivity with job losses but I think we are talking productivity as an inclusive growth and and finding really opportunity to scale deep by I think it's not sector it's the company within the sector which will benefit there'll be some company which will not be able to adopt evolve See everyone is going to say we are investing for AI. No one is going to say I don't invest in AI but are you getting return on your AI investment?
Are you doing it with conviction or are you doing it just for the sake of doing it >> that will create the differentiator and winner takes all is the kind of scenario which is getting developed in the financial field. We have seen time and again the innovator who executed it well took away the business from the >> we saw it with the digital too right about a decade >> we have seen it again and again >> how do you embed that digital into enterprise >> absolutely so it's not just the sector it is company which bring AI not only for names sake but actually for running the business there will be tough decisions >> they'll have to focus on return on investment and a technology which is better than their peers and the winners will take it all. we will actually see more concentration of economic power >> in few companies like today if you see Taiwan 40% of market cap is contributed by TSMC in Korea five or six chaiballs contribute bulk of the economy that concentration of power will happen because of AI >> uh but on the other side I actually thought I think it's a good point you made there will be winners and losers in enterprise but it'll also lower the cost of technology for many who probably cannot afford a lot of like say software engineers today a lot of expensive talent like you rightly mentioned a lot of this asymmetry may also come down so somebody with a great idea can come and disrupt an incumbent uh because what took probably an incumbent to build say a technology stack over a decade uh it can be done much faster and a much >> so there will be better of David So there'll be a lot of disruption.
>> There will be debits emerging but they'll become as big as Golat eventually.
>> Yeah. Absolutely.
>> Awesome. That's a great segue into my next question. So while Nvidia is talking about $5 trillion market cap and just building on what Deepak just mentioned, there is a surge of entrepreneurship and you referenced that as well. Your outlook for entrepreneurship is quite positive. What happens to the companies in the middle?
So there is this concept of above the algorithm and below the algorithm right above the algorithm is a company like Uber sitting out of somewhere orchestrating this entire network and there are a bunch of micro entrepreneurs and drivers who are coming in but in the middle is there a squeezing that's happening where multiple players get pushed out and I want to connect it back to investing right when you look at large cap midcap and small cap will AI fundamentally change your approach to investing given that the middle is going to come under pressure.
>> So we have seen in our puran when you do samutra mantan in search of amrit you have to deal with the poison. There's no substitute. If the god would have wished in samutraan only amrit should have come out. But there is a lesson for all of us that if you are searching for amrud you have to bear with the poison also. In some sense AI will have its own side effects. There will be job destruction. There will be change in the industry ranking.
And it's not large, mid or small. It's how you adopt, how you evolve. In broking, we have seen startups becoming leader and leader not doing as well.
>> Yeah.
>> Same thing is happening in banking. Same thing will happen in other parts of the business. So it's all about a company encouraging its talent to work together to be adaptive and to deliver. Today when we are investing in our companies we are trying to find what their motives how will their business model sustain onset of technology. Are they at the cutting edge of the technology?
We have seen many companies where they are seriously investing for the cutting edge technology and in their field they are globally competitive despite all the challenges. So it's not that the future is going to be one way up. It will have its ups and downs and we'll have to be in our full attention to find that entrepreneur who is willing to put effort. Awesome. That is a nice segue into my next question. So you have a framework monkey to gorilla to uh king Kong, right? That framework um is essentially for identifying emerging technologies and I I think we spoke about winners and losers. How do you spot the winner, right? When technologies are changing rapidly and what worked in the past may not work now and there are a bunch of new technologies like EVs, hydrogen, now AI, uh quantum, there are too many of these that are coming. So what are some mental models that you apply to pick the winners?
>> So it's not an easy task because when we uh look at some of this technology, our own starting point is zero. We don't know anything about it. Second, there are dieh hard people who give different view on different technology. So I remember going for a conference where EV die hard talked about EV, hydrogen die hard talked about hydrogen and someone talked on hybrid, someone talked on petrol, diesel. You can go by what people talk but if everyone is so much committed how do you define then the next stage is that you know where people have put their money that's far better than what they're talking about. Now invariably we have found that people who are passionate about a technology they're also putting their money. So that is no longer a information advantage.
So finally we have realized that we need to be humble. We need to not become die hard committed for a technology. We have to keep our options open.
Maybe if today I have to invest and if there are options available, I'll go for petrol diesel. I'll go for electric.
I'll go for hybrid. I'll go for hydrogen. I'll also go for auto component and I'll see how these things are evolving. Many of times technology can be great but it also requires ecosystem and policy making. Many a times ecosystem and policy is good, technology is good but something else happens and the technology goes for a toss. So we'll have to keep our options open, remain humble. Don't get committed to one side of thought and take action depending upon how situations evolve.
That humbleness to accept that we don't know anything is a good starting point.
>> Awesome. That's where your value system comes in, right? Humility and learning.
going back to the question we started with and what are some signals that you look at where you say ah this uh emerging technology is now ready for scale. So essentially the first starting point is the robustness of the technology. Today there are enough research reports available which talks about what are the positives what are the negatives. Second if there's an experience of it working in the different market then you know that okay with this modification same thing can work in India. Third, you look at the team. Are they really committed to the cause? Their capital is there and they are willing to ensure that this technology becomes popular. Then the policy making, what is the response of the regulator, government and industry.
Will there be standardization?
And you go to competitors to find out about what is their view on this.
Essentially you try to do lot of work to get a confidence that yes this technology is at a now change of orbit level and finally you go by the numbers after doing all the hard work if numbers are not coming you change your view. There's nothing better than the numbers, the data, >> right? So, and in terms of decision- making and biases, uh you live in a world where maybe incomplete information or rapidly changing information is the reality. So, uh under these circumstances, what are some biases personally for yourself that you are always reminding yourself of, right? So that you don't fall into a decision-m trap.
>> So, one, you know, 1 + 1 becomes 11. So if you have a view and it gets confirmed by people whom you trust then your view gets super enforced. So but eyes and ears should be open to listen and observe. Second scenario analysis.
Many a times we get committed to our position and we fail to do scenario analysis. What if this happens? What if that happens? As a fund manager while we do back our conviction we need to be open for scenario analysis and then the final the bias is I know everything or this time it is different you go back to your own experiences that you didn't know anything and second every time it is not different it could be same so you learn from your experiences to cover the shortcomings and finally >> [laughter] >> You have to do your karma but seek God's blessing to get things done. Awesome.
Great.
>> Uh I think just coming back to the question that we were discussing earlier and now contextualizing uh with investments with asset management business that you lead. But I think importantly in Pai today like we spoke I think we are going through quite a challenging phase globally uh there are both income inequality. I think wealthy people are becoming wealthier while there are also the other side of that that's trying to figure out how do they get formally into investment and and build their corperson saving. uh I think we continue to deal with a lot of geopolitical uncertaintity which way the prices of oil will go or essential supply cost that itself has a bearing on both the consumption side story as well as enterprise companies and then I think this whole sovereignity which we spoke a bit about and and then we spoke about the AIdriven disruption uh and then there are all these concerns about job losses uh I All of a sudden when you put all this together it looks like we are going through probably a phase where no data or pattern or past experience can just come back and play because uh when there are so many different variables that we are dealing with uh I think decision- making like you rightly mentioned your framework probably helps but I think u my question is slightly first at a macro level and then we'll come to more specific How do you see some of all these things that we are dealing with today will rebalance uh some part of uh economy consumption demand uh especially when you are looking as uh from investment uh portfolio horizon from a medium to long-term cuz I know in short term a lot of these things you take it as a part of the game right uh but especially and why I'm asking this question also is because a lot of people today are looking at investment into these instrument from their retirement pension long-term corpus. Uh so while they all want to see this grow uh but I think capital erosion uh is definitely something that they are not prepared for uh they also do not really know how do they manage their money uh they definitely do not have all the information like say you will have but still you are also dealing with so much uncertainty right it's not that it's easy and you you gave some examples from your temple days so so how do you see in current context uh some of these things getting practiced at say with Kota KMC.
>> So one if there is certaintity then prices will not be good. Prices are attractive only because there's so much of uncertainty and like a seaf farer in the olden days in a choppy water we'll either focus on the north star or if is near the shore the lighthouse light coming the same thing we have to do it in our investment journey there will be days when there will be calmness but no lighthouse available so get driven by northstar there will be days when When the waters are very choppy, you are near the shore.
You focus upon lighthouse. What will be the northstar for an investor to outperform inflation?
How do you do that?
The three simple rules are regular investment, asset allocation, and long-term investment.
If anyone expects that I don't want any downside whatsoever, chances of them outperforming inflation will be very very low because there is risk there is return. If there's no risk, there will be no return. So first is this northstar that I have to outperform inflation. I have to generate real return and for generating that I have to take risk. Now I will take risk which is comfortable to me. Yeah, >> I'll take risk which I can afford, I can manage. So first litmus test is if during COVID you bought, you are risk taker.
>> If in COVID you panicked then sold, you are conservative investor. If you didn't do anything, you are average investor.
Don't lie to yourself. You know what you are. Your neighbor is aggressive risk taker and he makes lot of money. So be it. You are not him.
>> Right?
>> Number two, for your physical health, you go and consult a doctor, an expert.
For your financial health, you need an advisor.
Today, there's robo advisor possible.
There are human advisor possible. But get the help of a outside expert.
When you go to a doctor, you don't say you get me cured in 24 hours. If you have diabetes, you'll take medicine probably for life. Results don't come instantly.
Same thing long-term investing. Your adviser won't create overnight result.
>> But if you follow that discipline, you will get the results eventually.
Investment is all about managing in emotions rather than behaving rationally. If you manage your emotions well with the help of an outside advisor and follow this regular investment, long-term investment, disciplined investment, by and large you will be fine.
>> Will you be able to get maximum return?
No. These are all good for optimizing return.
>> Right?
>> Finally, do remember so think long term, build systematic, understand your risk appetite.
>> Yes. and uh keep investing over a longer horizon if you want a long-term return.
>> Absolutely.
>> No, absolutely. I think the other question is slightly different uh with I think today while it's still early days but there will be definitely a rise of quantum computing uh I think with quantum uh stuff like algorithm trading which is already around and now I think a lot on AIEL investing either robot advisory portfolio balancing and then uh there's also been discussion of blockchain and if blockchain comes we even need an exchange because if contracts can be uh done would they be need I think some may not be immediate but I think in the future the question is do you think with a lot of these technologies the way it's coming or changing the fund managers and AMC's uh will go through a transformation or a change in their business model or how they prepare themselves going ahead >> undoubtedly >> because a lot of information arbitrage will probably get streamlined right and when there's information arbitrage >> uh Undoubtedly there will be changes.
>> The way we are managing money if we if we continue the same way will become history. We'll have to adopt and evolve.
Will we go towards high frequency trading leveraging newer technology and algorithm? Answer is unlikely because we are long-term investors not short-term traders.
Will we use quantum or other parts of uh technology to improve our decision making? Answer is undoubtedly yes.
>> Mhm.
>> For example, you know, we recognize picture far more than the words which will describe it.
Similarly, today when we are investing, we are going by the words which are describing. But we haven't built that picture in our mind.
>> So an emerging trend of investing is pattern recognition where you put the data quickly to create a pattern and that gives you a recognition far better than let's say the words which will describe that data. It could be something similar to portfolio optimization.
Today you do scenario analysis by gut by Excel sheet. Tomorrow you'll be able to back it up with data and do it in a fast far faster manner. So we will have to leverage technology to ensure that we remain at the cutting edge of investment. We remain ahead of our peers or competitors in the market. But at the same time will there be need for that human element? Answer is yes. Today an aeroplane probably flies on autopilot for a >> reasonably large part but you require pilot for takeoff for landing and for those air turbulences where his presence might be needed.
>> Now great that leads me uh to this question on passive investments versus active with so much complexity even in products right. So uh for the normal investor they may not be able to figure out what is what. So do you think uh the industry will move towards more of passive investing ETFs and stuff? So I was just looking up some numbers in the US more than 50% apparently is passive investing whereas in India it's about 10 15% but growing really fast. Do you think this complexity will change the minds of the investors to move more towards passive investments >> over a period of time will we see more and more fund more and more funds coming into passive? Answer is undoubtedly yes.
Is today's allocation wrong? Answer is undoubtedly no because funds have outperformed benchmark indices right and this is despite the fact that many of times when fund chase index stocks index tend to do better there are other limitations and despite those limitations we have delivered alpha for example index has zero cash we keep cash for day-to-day redemption in index inclusion happens at closing prices we have to pay the impact price >> right >> in index there's no entry and exit of investor in fund investors enter exit there's a transaction cost despite all those we are still outperforming benchmark indices will it become like us now in one reason why US mutual funds are not doing that well in outperforming benchmark indices is partly because they have kept on losing talent to alternate industry >> the hedge funds reward far more the private equity venture capital alternate funds reward far more there is profit sharing and which is why talent kept on going for greener pastures if the same thing happens in India undoubtedly they will get benefit of talent and mutual funds will have to bear with it so it's all dependent upon are we able to attract talent the next narin next prashanjin next hersa should come to industry. Maduka, Sunil Singana, so many smart fund managers industry was able to create. We need to keep on attracting that kind of talent.
Second, we'll have to leverage AI to be better than our competitors in the market. If we can do that, I think active funds will still have a role to play. But for investors, dharma is if active outperform passive, invest there.
If active underperforms passive, invest in passive.
>> Awesome. I I love your rules of thumb.
Very easy to understand and apply. Um, so I think you touched upon something that's very critical in terms of talent, right? So when you are looking at talent today, what are some skills that you think are missing uh that you wish you know institutions across India uh prepared them with? Right. And and also from a leadership standpoint, you can't have the same leadership playbook that worked 5 years ago, even 2 3 years ago.
So what are some things that you look at uh from a leadership standpoint? Are are the rules changing and how are you grooming those people within?
>> So something as simple as culture. I recently saw on Twitter a comment by someone that she went to college on time for meeting with students and there were four or five people.
Now what kind of culture that organization institution is creating?
You are inviting someone and you are not able to gather your students.
I myself I've gone to many of the institutes to give lectures and some of them are now I don't accept their invite because they don't realize the sincerity you bring on table they are late in starting the students are attending just for the sake of attending we don't want large audience but we want committed audience so culture is very very critical are we bringing bringing that culture of discipline, empathy, respect into our current generation. There are many institutions which are doing a fantastic job but not all institutions are doing the same. The second is integrating. You know long back there was a famous quote by JP Morgan when he was questioned by US Senate as to how does he lend and he said character character character.
A person of low character will not get a dime from me. We are in the business of managing trust of other people. How can I employ someone whose integrity is debatable?
Now there's no thermometer to test integrity and you take a call but are we teaching values of integrity to our students? If we see a CA course versus CFA course or a MBA versus CFA, you will see the nuances of what I'm talking about. I think we need to focus far more on managing conflict of interest.
When I started there was a time when buying stock along with your fund buying was perfectly legal but Templeton taught us that no that is not correct and you should not be doing it. They implemented a rule which was beyond our required law at that point of time. So discipline and integrity are two most important things for us. If you are a little short on knowledge, I can still make it up.
>> Yeah.
>> But if you're a little less on integrity and discipline, how will I make it up?
>> Right. That's zero or one.
>> It's zero or one. There's just a small hole in the boat and hence ignore. No, it doesn't work that way. The whole boat will sink.
>> Right. And on leaders uh that need to now come up with a different mindset.
How are you guiding them with this?
Undoubtedly in principles you have to be firm on processes you have to be flexible and uh our own founder Mr. Ude kotech has mentioned this many a times and he did share it with me also which I have applied in my decision making there are 2x two boxes the ram bhagan the object and the means both should be noble righteous the second box of Krishna Bhagwan where object has to be righteous means to achieve you could take some flexib ibility.
Never be duryodhan where you focus so much on means that you forget about the object and never be raan where object and means don't matter. So whatever decision you are taking is it for the righteous cause not only for the current rules and regulations that we have to follow but beyond that I should be able to face him without any worry and second sometimes you have to be flexible but are you trying to be flexible within the boundaries of the law for the rights cause if you can manage that thinking I think leadership principle becomes simpler and finally it's the culture of the organization which drives the processes.
>> Awesome. Thank you.
uh I think as we go towards uh probably the the last part of the today's session u I'll go back to one of the favorite things that you speak very often about uh from investing uh perspective that uh India's opportunities are hidden and risks are visible uh and I know a lot of people watching this uh show would be the ones who have heard you earlier uh our investors those who really look forward to your views. So my question is uh and we spoke I know at length about this in our during the discussion but uh in that context uh what does that statement reveal uh about the psychology of uh investing in emerging markets like India? uh because still uh there is only a certain part of allocation uh comes in a lot of this is also about what is the India's credit rating sovereign rating many of those uh variables which necessarily we do not uh control but I think the question today is uh when people are looking at investing into emerging market like India what psychology today plays in their mind >> so there is one passive psychology which for lack of and there's no homogeneity but just for simplification it is essentially looking at past performance and investing.
>> They are not applying their brain. They have taken a view that last one year return was good let me go and invest.
Then there is active fund management that is investing based on your conviction.
Some people are taking top- down conviction, some people are doing bottom up conviction. But essentially it's your conviction which you are making.
Now between these two very simple narratives, one momentum, second fundamental lies the entire complex setting. Investors go by perception.
There was a time when you know there was a war in Afghanistan and some of the bombs were straying and a colleague of mine called up saying that I hope all of you are safe. His concern was valid but he didn't realize that there was such a wide gap between us and Afghanistan. For him everything was nearby.
So perceptions make a big play.
Second, there will be ups and downs. How are we communicating during that downturn?
Are we facing the investor or are we hiding behind?
Emerging market investment is all about conviction. Conviction brought by fund managers, conviction carried by the investors.
We do get both flows, momentum as well as conviction. But by and large my experience is that the convict conviction flow delivers longerterm return. Are you seeing uh there are investors who believe in India's long-term story as we have been talking because you do see a lot of volatility uh in this category right they move money in and out uh far at a higher frequency than probably what you would expect if there's a long >> undoubtedly there are people >> are we are we doing not a good job in communicating a lot about our fundamental story uh of why India matters in a long term >> yes to both there are enough people who are convinced on India's long-term growth story and we haven't done a great job in communicating our position if you see most of the international newspaper or agencies they carry India story with a negativity >> yes absolutely >> and the best of that is exemplified by that famous cartoon where India had launched a rocket and they showed a farmer knocking on the exclusive club.
>> I mean that shows the western mentality.
They still think we are snake charmers nation. Of course lot has changed. Many people are convinced on India growth story. But if there's one thing which we have to improve, it's improving our communication, improving our marketing.
>> And I I absolutely agree. I think one of the reasons Rajiv and I we started with this show was uh to build a better narrative of what India is about how we are changing from the lens of either technology investments policy governance and growth and I'm sure uh a discussion like this uh with you will help probably clearing the blur in terms of a lot of people how they see emerging market and India uh so I think there won't be a apt time then for us to say hopefully more and more people do get to know what the real India growth story looks like and how they can be part of a long-term story with India's growth. Uh so yes I think that's awesome and I would say that uh if investors are looking at uh investing today what is that one primary risk that they should look out for?
There can't be just one risk.
There will be multiple events happening which will turn out into risk. But if you have to pinpoint one risk, it is you yourself.
You take wrong decision.
>> How do you define risk in individual context? You're saying >> deviating from your disciplined path.
>> I know I have to reach point A to point B. Now if rain comes, should I stop? If there is a earthquake, should I stop? If there is a fire, should I stop or I find a way around it to reach my destination?
Most of us will reach from point A to point B despite hurdles by navigating around it. very few people will come back saying that oh no awesome and I think uh as we conclude uh this conversation I we have a little ritual uh that we follow at clearing the blur uh and before we conclude this episode uh uh do you have a question that you would like us to ask the next guest on the show? Undoubtedly I want to take his professional opinion on how to improve my business. Where are we going wrong in reaching out to Indian investors?
After three decades, the principle invested with mutual fund is about 2530 lakh cr which has grown through markto market to 80 lakh cr. This is lower far lower than currency in circulation which is 41 lakh cr.
People are keeping money at home which is depreciating in value.
>> Yeah.
>> Where they are not going to make any return whatsoever and they are not giving money to us who has now three decades of experience to show that I have made money for you.
What am I missing? Why are people not lining to give money to me? Why do I have to stand in a line to get money from them?
>> Yeah, but I think a lot of people have given money to you per se for sure.
[laughter] >> I I I know how you have got into the top-notch uh asset management company.
But yes, as an industry, as an industry, >> I think that is still a question.
>> The whole tagline of mutual fund, right?
How do we >> make people realize that, right? See today Brajupai we are dealing mainly with the rich urban India or at best upper middle class but the need for financial planning investment is more at the bottom of India.
>> Absolutely.
>> We have a long way to go.
>> I think uh still I would say like the financial literacy in India earlier was about open a bank account.
>> Yeah.
>> Right. Now I think then we started it.
So we have to then it came on to buying the small insurance product the Pradhan mantri >> Janji even so I think uh this probably needs the next level and as I would say the growth of the country especially at the middle class level will keep expanding hopefully as people have more means beyond their day-to-day expenses and earning uh probably that would happen but yes it needs just like we said a lot of education around India probably we still need to emphasize the need for going more formal in their investments and long-term financial planning.
>> Yeah, >> that brings us to the close of this episode. I I can't tell you enough how inspired I am with this conversation uh from the humble beginnings that you've had to reaching this level in your professional life uh is just outstanding and I can see clearly um how you got that done. Discipline, integrity and you stand for certain values that are evergreen. things change uh all around us but these values I think stay uh evergreen right and that's I think what attracts uh the entire ecosystem towards you uh I feel I've learned it's a master class on uh many things today not just about the financial world but also about leadership and ethics so thank you so much for sharing your wisdom with us >> no I think it's been an awesome learning again uh for me because one of the key things is how do you manage trust uh and that too in a time and era when that is probably a at a much higher premium than it ever was. Uh I think organizations with higher trust moral compass I think that is one outstanding thing. I think also uh with great simplicity how you explain some of the key nuances and your grasp on technology. [laughter] I I I must say that the way you went about looking at the how AI will create the new enterprise value uh and how enterprises need to reimagine uh right from LLMs to how do you deploy I think it was it was very very simply and well explained uh I must say and I think there's nobody better than talking about India's story to the world I know you have been a great believer in the prospects of not just investing but how India is going to prosper and I think you just articulated it so brilliantly again today.
>> Thank you.
>> So thanks once again. Yeah, you live in a world uh that's volatile and chaotic but looking at you I can't get that sense at all. You are calm, composed, smiling and that's something I'm going to learn personally as well. How to face uncertainties with uh with equanimity I guess.
>> Yeah.
>> Great. And I think uh to our listeners uh here is another episode of clearing the blur with Nillesa whom we all favoritely call Nilleshai. Uh I'm sure you would have enjoyed listening to this conversation as much as we did hosting him. Uh and if you like do subscribe, share the show and we'll keep bringing you more unique guests in clearing the blood. Till then stay curious.
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