Reform UK Will Win The Makerfield By Election - Ex Labour MEP

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:00:02]Hi guys, Reform UK are going to win the Makerfield by-election. Now, that's not my prediction, it's not even the prediction of a right-winger, it's the prediction of a former member of the European Parliament for the Labour Party, a guy called Robert Crampton who works for The Times. Now, he appeared on Times Radio to talk about this constituency, this by-election, and while he believes it will go to Reform, his argument makes a lot of sense, unfortunately. Have a listen.

[00:00:29]>> I mean, I'll tell you what Robert Crampton is into. I know what he's into.

[00:00:32]He's into [laughter] northern men.

[00:00:34]Uh, and he's written this illuminating column. I mean, the past is a foreign country. To to softy southerner like me, the north is a foreign country. And he's he's highlighted these strange cos- customs that exist. The first one that struck me is when to buy a drink for a woman, or rather when a when you allow a woman to buy you a drink.

[00:00:54]Well, n- kind of never is the answer. I mean, I I I'm >> Oh, good.

[00:00:58]>> I yeah, I'm >> [laughter] >> I'm struggling here because I've been uh down south for a long time, for 40 years, uh and I'm 61, so that's, you know, 2/3 of my life.

[00:01:09]Uh, I suppose it's more a question of that deep down that you know it's the wrong thing to allow that to happen. Uh, and I was compa- and I'm thinking that probably Andy Burnham uh is the same. I was trying to I was I was trying to make a slightly more serious point about the by- the Makerfield by-election, which is that Burnham's uh local cred has been entirely neutralized by the Reform choice of candidate. Yeah. Because it's the the north is very segmented. Uh, people who just lump it into one, uh as Anne will know this, coming from the northeast, that, you know, Newcastle and Sunderland are 10 mi apart, but they're very, very different, and they don't like each other. Uh, and in Makerfield, Robert Kenyon, the Reform guy, is the local lad.

[00:01:53]Andy Burnham is nowhere in those in those stakes.

[00:01:56]>> 3 mi away.

[00:01:57]>> Uh, yeah, might as well be a hundred.

[00:01:59]Yeah. [laughter] And politics being the way it is in the everywhere but in the north in particular where you've got football teams who hate each other even though they're five miles apart. And they hate each other because they're five miles apart.

[00:02:12]The problem a lot of people's resentment in Makerfield about the their life will be I guarantee will be centered on Manchester rather than London.

[00:02:20]>> Yes.

[00:02:21]>> Uh >> Really interesting.

[00:02:22]>> Because people don't think about in the in the same way that in uh in uh Aberdeen they think they they rail against Edinburgh. They don't think about London. Yeah.

[00:02:31]Uh or in Swansea they get they get across with Cardiff.

[00:02:34]So I suspect I mean I think Reform are going to win this by-election.

[00:02:39]>> Yes, so do I.

[00:02:39]>> Uh yeah. And >> Really?

[00:02:41]>> Yeah, really. All our cards on the table.

[00:02:43]>> I mean I haven't I haven't been up there yet. I'm going to go up there next next week or the week after.

[00:02:47]But I think the the polls are fairly narrow but I suspect that they're going to win because people do not like uh the center you know in this case Manchester or Stoke London mucking about with them for their own purposes.

[00:03:01]>> [sighs] >> Uh >> [gasps] >> he makes a very compelling case. Now I don't know if this is true or not. Uh if there's anyone in the comment section from the north of England from Manchester and wonderful would be to hear from somebody from Makerfield.

[00:03:14]Is this true?

[00:03:16]Would the people prefer a local person to Andy Burnham? Because over the last number of weeks we've been talking about how Andy Burnham should walk this. Andy Burnham is in a very strong position. And I was off that idea until I actually heard this interview.

[00:03:32]And I'm not completely convinced because I still think Andy Burnham has a huge amount of star power. But what Robert said here makes a lot of sense if you're thinking about it from the local point of view. If we go back to Gorton and Denton.

[00:03:47]The candidate from the Green Party won in part because she was from the local area. Who did Reform throw into that constituency? Matt Goodwin, a guy from what was it? 100 miles away or even more than that.

[00:04:01]Now, I do not how much of the local the value of a local candidate came down to the the decision of people to vote for the Green Party there.

[00:04:11]Um some of it was probably resentment towards the Labour Party. People were not completely convinced about Matt Goodwin.

[00:04:17]But I think the local aspect is really important and I'm a huge advocate for local candidates running in constituencies. So, does Reform have the edge here because the guy is local? Does he eliminate this advantage that uh Andy Burnham has over other individuals?

[00:04:38]If that's the case, this would be a serious blow to both Andy Burnham and the Labour Party.

[00:04:44]Because if Andy Burnham can't defeat Reform, then Labour are finished.

[00:04:49]There's no one in Labour who can defeat Reform. Because Andy Burnham is supposed to be the anti-establishment candidate.

[00:04:58]Now, let's run through the scenario. If Andy Burnham loses this, if he doesn't win the seat and become the MP, then he won't go into Westminster. He won't challenge Keir Starmer.

[00:05:09]And then Keir Starmer is in a stronger position and maybe we see somebody like Wes Streeting or maybe Angela Rayner take over or maybe we won't even see uh a leadership contest in the short and medium term. So, Keir Starmer may be in a very strong position going forward.

[00:05:28]Because and the the threat of Andy Burnham has been neutralized.

[00:05:32]This would be the end of Andy Burnham's career. So, he's taking a massive risk here.

[00:05:39]You know, the polling is the polling is narrowing because the Reform UK candidate is out there. He He's not doing interviews with mainstream media. It's generally right-wing media, so he's not facing any real scrutiny scrutiny or he's not been held to account. That may change if he is released on from the box if he's not protected too much from the likes of Reform and allowed to do an interview with even Times Radio or the BBC or ITV or Sky or whatever. I don't see that happening at least in the short term. They may try and avoid him doing proper interviews with real journalists between now and the election. That's not a good thing because if he becomes the an MP, then you discover what he's truly like.

[00:06:26]But this will be a massive blow to the Labour Party. It could create an implosion. There's been talk about some MPs within the Labour Party defecting to the Greens if Andy Burnham doesn't take over. So I think the next number of weeks are going to be critical for the Labour Party.

[00:06:43]I'm still of the idea at the moment that Andy Burnham would win this. But what Robert has said here is certainly food for thought. But once again, if there's somebody in the comment section from the north of England from Manchester and it would would be wonderful if there's somebody from Makerfield or nearby could let let us know in the comments if you agree with what Robert has said or if this is just pie in the sky.

[00:07:08]Let me know the comment section, guys, for the rest of you and I'll see you in the next video.

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