Weather Impact Live: Breaking down your Mother's Day forecast

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:03][music] It is our Sunday version of Weather Impact Live. Fix my jacket right there.

[00:00:11]How about that? Hey, it is Mother's Day out here. See, if I had my mom here with me to kind of fix up my collar, it wouldn't look like uh such a hot mess right when we come on here. Uh today, we're going to be talking about, you know, some rainfall across the First Coast and the Southeast here on Mother's Day. plus taking a look at maybe you might see some travel rough spots across the country. Got an update on our ongoing wildfires out here and we'll be talking a little bit about the tropics and including an interview with uh the head of the one of the one of the people in charge of the hurricane hunters, Colonel Rickart, out there at Keiesler Air Force Base just talking about what they do during tropical season. So, first off, you know, starting with uh kind of a look across the the country here and uh here if we take a look back towards places like International Falls, Bismar, temperatures into the 30s. In fact, out towards Wyoming, uh seeing a Jackson um it was into the 20s this morning. Still looking at some cool and chilly weather across parts of the Northeast, very springlike.

[00:01:17]Jacksonville's got 75. Very humid and sticky. The warmest spot on the map is out in Miami, Houston, and even towards El Paso. Of course, further towards the south, we have this just very damp and humid setup though across the first coast today. And and that's the key thing. I mean, look at the due points into the 70s. It is absolutely sticky.

[00:01:36]The wind is not terribly heavy either.

[00:01:39]So, we're just seeing all sorts of just very humid, sticky conditions. Some light on andoff rainfall here with this cloud cover. And you know, that's um it's great news for the ongoing wildfires, but bad news for any thunderstorm development, especially south of where you have all this cloud cover. I do think we're going to see some storms out in this area and along the I95 corridor as we start to see the seab breeze set up here this afternoon.

[00:02:04]And I'll come back to that in a second.

[00:02:06]Do want to let you know though, I was talking about that cold air towards the north. Look at Ontario. There's some snow falling out there, even into parts of Quebec if you plan on traveling up north. And then we have another severe weather threat across Oklahoma over towards Texas today. Uh some decent storms developing. In fact, a uh enhanced risk of thunderstorms. That's a three out of five from the storm prediction center from San Angelo out towards Dalis. Basically that stretch right in there along the dry line and our ongoing front across the southeast helping to kick up some of those strong storms out there today. Then back towards the first coast, of course, uh cloudy skies, got some storms just offshore. But uh big topic right now is just these very muggy conditions here on your Mother's Day with already some showers trying to develop up down towards the uh south. And there goes look at your due points with just absolutely sticky conditions uh ongoing across the first coast. So I showed you what was happening out in Texas. This is the east coast. Um here along that seab breeze, a one out of five risk for severe thunderstorms. This is the same pattern we've seen the last few days, by the way. And we had severe thunderstorms on Friday, again on Saturday, and now here again on Sunday. Uh we're also looking at that risk. Now, these storms going to start to first develop along the I9 or I75 corridor and push off towards the east with the bulk of them as we go ahead through the afternoon into the evening along uh I 95. That's where you're going to be seeing some of that stronger cells here. It's just humid. We have these passing troughs aloft. um the very uh unstable atmosphere as just as far as uh creating thunderstorms. So, here you go for this evening and again on tomorrow because uh we got a front that's going to move through. We have a weather impact alert with heavy downpours, some scattered afternoon storms in our forecast. So, you want to be ready, plan ahead, stream here on FCN Plus. Uh yesterday, myself as well as our chief meteorologist, Liz Turner, uh were tracking these storms here and streaming on FCN Plus throughout the day. First in the morning, we had some storms and then into the afternoon, some severe weather out towards Flagler in St. John's County. And today, mentioned, very similar setup and again on Monday. So, we issue those weather impact alerts.

[00:04:14]Just make sure you are well aware of that chance of uh having your day impacted, especially on an important day like today here with Mother's Day. Uh so yeah, starting around 2 to 3:00, we're going to have these storms moving on through. Temperatures getting up into the mid 80s here in Jacksonville before we somewhat cool off, but not by a lot.

[00:04:33]Sunday's high is going to be 85 degrees here. Yeah, light A.M. rain. We've already seen that out there with these storms starting to develop as we go ahead through the afternoon and into the evening. And here's a look at our hourby hour futurecast. Kind of see where those showers do start to develop. In fact, let's rewind it just a bit. Around the I75 corridor about 2 3:00. Then you see them bubbling and pushing towards the east running right over I 95 by 4 5:00.

[00:04:59]Um including the Jacksonville area.

[00:05:02]That's when you probably could see, you know, if we do have some stronger storms, it'll be right about in that time frame. So just about dinner time, uh from St. Augustine, the Jacksonville all the way down towards Palm Coast. Uh, and that means, you know, if you got dinner plans with mom, maybe you uh, you know, if you time it right, you could be inside when the storm's passed and then once you leave, you know, uh, that it already gone past. But if you have some outdoor plans, maybe you're on a patio or rooftop, restaurant, just something to keep in mind. Uh, there is going to be some showers in the area about 5 6:00 and then things do start to taper off.

[00:05:37]It's also bad news for the um the jumbo shrimp game [snorts] today uh which is downtown and I I am a little concerned about the chance of rainfall in the area especially around 2:00 with some those showers are going to start to kick up by 3 4 they could get the rain kicking on through. It's a very humid atmosphere.

[00:05:54]So, it might not be like a full-on front coming at them or and it's not going to be rain all day, but it'll be just enough for like a short time heavy burst of rain and and that could soak the ground real quick. And uh hopefully everything avoids uh the downtown area so we don't have big impacts on people's plans, but the risk is definitely there.

[00:06:13]Uh and then this is from the Storm Prediction Center. The overall threat of some strong to severe thunderstorms here across the first coast uh is at that 2% threshold, but mainly wind and the potential for some hail. Yesterday, we actually even saw some uh storm cores get high enough where there was some hail kicking off out there. So, today is a weather impact alert. As mentioned, yes, or tomorrow, excuse me, as we go ahead into our Monday, uh continuing to see that weather impact alert because of some afternoon, the evening thunderstorms are going to push on through. That's all thanks to this um next front that's going to kick on by.

[00:06:48]And behind that, things will start to change and clear up just a little bit.

[00:06:53]But 88° for a high on Monday. We do have some southerntherly winds that are going to help warm things up just a little bit more with those afternoon and evening storms in the forecast. Sunrise is at 6:36. Sunset is going to be at 8:11 p.m. And here's a look at where we're kind of seeing uh the bulk of the uh the rainfall here Sunday, Monday, scattered showers out there by Tuesday into Wednesday. Uh after that front pushes on by, we're going to see things a lot drier. But you know what's happening? Um you're going to get an onshore wind that is really going to be setting up and that's going to be creating some coastal preip or at least cloudy skies heading through your day here on Tuesday. and into Wednesday. But all of this rain you see across the picture here is actually somewhat good news. We don't have any warnings in place. It's humid. It's cloudy as far as fire weather, but we have those fires still ongoing. But the good news is that um you know like the Brenley fire out here, which one of the more kind of destructive ones we've seen uh of course the Clinch County one um the Pinewood uh fire that was larger, but this one definitely having the more damage. 90% contained right now though.

[00:08:04]Uh firefighters get able to get a handle on it and uh they're doing an amazing job combating these fires, but uh what helps a lot is rain and they've been getting a lot of it uh here across southeast Georgia. And so we see today there's even the chance of more preset.

[00:08:19]Probably not as much as yesterday, but a chance is a chance and I'm sure it's welcomed. Fire danger risk though obviously dialed back quite significantly here um over the upcoming days because of this ongoing risk of rainfall. And we see here what our extended outlook through our day on Sunday and then heading into Monday that stationary brunt still overhead. But we do have that front going to kick in from the north through Monday afternoon heading in the evening. That's going to bring now more scattered showers then.

[00:08:45]But behind that high pressure will start to set up. And as I mentioned, things do somewhat dry out, but you get this northeasterly flow that's going to be kicking in. And I do think that's going to create the risk of some rip currents out here. Uh rough surf obviously just offshore and uh a steady northeasterly breeze. But along with all of that, uh we're going to see the temperatures significantly cool off a bit uh with that high pressure ridge on the back side of it. And you kind of see that dry air spilling right back in behind this.

[00:09:15]So with that cool northeasterly breeze.

[00:09:18]So once again, today is a weather impact alert. We still have one in place for tomorrow as well. And then on Tuesday, we get those cloudy skies. Temperatures down into the 74 degrees as a buddy check Tuesday. By the way, uh the out every month on the 12th, wear pink.

[00:09:34]Remind yourself to check for breast cancer. Wednesday heading into Thursday, mostly sunny skies and temperatures do start to rebound back up. I just saw Brenda on here is one of our weather watchers. always sharing fantastic photos. In fact, Brenda, yesterday I shared one of your and she's uh commenting on our Facebook page. I shared one of your photos. I believe it's this one right here. Um you sent in overlooking the river towards the heart bridge. Always love that. And always remember if um you want to share some images with us uh about the weather wherever you are, check out our First Coast News weather watchers Facebook page. Probably the best spot you can send us some uh images there. And Brena is asking about how my foot is. the swelling has gone down quite significantly. Our slow pitch softball team, we've been talking about that for the last few days here. Um we uh our playoff game there was multiple injuries and uh some actually one of our directors broke their hand and uh for me I um I had a very bruised up foot and uh it was swelled. It was it was uh so thank you for asking Brenda. I really appreciate that. That's very kind of you there. And um also Brenda uh Brenda and Brenda, they're spelled differently on here saying good morning. I hope you're having a fantastic start to your day uh as well. So yeah, you know, we're taking a look at the um the uh the First Coast here today and tomorrow. Got showers in the area.

[00:11:03]Weather impact alert in place this morning, this afternoon. Expect that rain, expect some thunderstorms to kind of push on through. But I also do want to talk a little bit about um what's going on in the tropics. In fact, check out this image. This was from exactly uh 19 years ago today, May 10th, 2007, and we had a subtropical storm off the east coast of Jacksonville. I remember this one. I'll talk about why I remember it, and also we'll talk about the tropics in general during the month of May coming up here in just a few minutes. Right now, let's uh pay some bills. We'll go to a break and we'll be right back.

[00:11:41]>> We have new details about a heavy police presence in Jacksonville Beach.

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[00:13:43]Well, uh, welcome back here. Let's talk about the tropics. You know, today, May 10th, uh, it is 22 days now until June 1st, uh, the official start of hurricane season. I remind you that on May 15th, so just 5 days from now, the National Hurricane Center will start to put out tropical cyclone advisories for the Atlantic. Uh basically just saying, "Hey, if we got any tropical waves out there, we're monitoring because this time of year, uh, believe it or not, we already start to see things pick up."

[00:14:14]And this is from Andrea, May 10th, 2007, off of the east coast of the first coast. I remember this because I um I was meant to I was I I did get married on May 12th, 2007. And the running gag leading up to it was of course uh the meteorologist um in Jacksonville uh was going to get married if during a tropical storm that was going to hit in the month of May. Uh the first time we actually had one in the Atlantic uh in over two decades uh in the month of May.

[00:14:50]But um oddly enough, you know, after this pass, it actually drawled in some a lot of dry air behind it and the wedding uh on May 12th, 2007 went off rather spectacular. Uh it was beautiful weather and I got married and we're still married today. You know, fantastic. I got to think of some gifts though uh for um two days from now. [laughter] Uh taking a look at you know the average first date though you know that that thing in 2007 that storm was the first in a line of storms cuz in 2015 uh May 8th we had Anna which was also right off the coast of the first coast here. Uh then the 18th, the 19th, the 20th, the 21, what am I saying? The yeah, 2018, 2019, 2020,21, uh all of those years, four years straight, we had storms in the month of May. And the end result of all this has been the average start over the last about 12 years has been May 22nd. So when you say, "Oh, they're going to start maybe putting out advisories or they start will start putting out advisories on the um the 15th," it makes perfect sense given the fact that uh we have tropical systems quite often here in the uh the latter days of the month of May. So um and a lot of them form around the first coast, which is interesting enough, too. Uh see that big cluster off of the east coast. Andrea just shows you there a second ago. Anna from 2015.

[00:16:18]And this is because we typically get these fronts that kind of stall out just like we have today. We have a front stalled out across the first coast. So if the ingredients set up right, you can get these subtropical storms that kind of develop with it. Uh, of course, the start of hurricane season is June 1st and it doesn't really pick up until September, but uh we always we're always trying our best to keep you posted. But as mentioned, those ingredients, those warmer sea surface temperatures, uh, you get the convection out there. got to have the moisture, a lack and shear, and you know, right now those ingredients are just not there. But of course, if anything does change, we'll keep you posted. And you know, if we ever have a storm like this off the coast and including this one, um the hurricane hunters fly out into them. And I actually had the privilege to talk to head of the hurricane hunters, Colonel Rickard, about what they do. So, we're going to go to a break. When we come back, you'll have my uh my talk with the hurricane hunters and Colonel Rickart, who has flown into just so many storm systems. His stories are pretty incredible. So, don't go anywhere.

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[00:19:27]The hurricane hunters are a vital tool when it comes to tropical weather forecasting. They fly into the heart of hurricane so we can get that initialization data to ingest into weather models and help make that forecast that much more accurate. But who is flying these planes into the middle of the hurricanes? Well, I had the opportunity to talk to one of the hurricane hunters. That is Colonel Ryan Rickard about why they do what they do.

[00:19:54]So, I mean, we all we all know that it started very very early in the middle of World War II. Um, there's no there's no replacement for it really. There's there's nothing that can provide the data that the aircraft can provide.

[00:20:07]There's there's no observations over the ocean that you know with aircraft flying through it, the the aircraft is equipped with weather information and sensitive sensors that is collecting that and then we're disseminating it. So, it's it's truly vital for the hurricane center and uh for the meteorologists and the forecasters in the west coast as we've expanded our winter season mission too where we're collecting atmospheric data over data sparse areas.

[00:20:35]>> All right. So, let's say you're going to go fly into a hurricane. Could you take me through a day in the life of a of a Air Force hurricane hunter that is going to be going out and going into a storm?

[00:20:46]>> So, really it starts the day prior. The day prior, the hurricane center asks um the aircraft units what if they can support whatever they're asking requirements for flights for whatever storms are out there that we can reach um from whatever base we're at. And then that basically starts this sets the stage for the crews getting built, people volunteering for set a flight at whatever time. And then they go into a crew rest. They have to have a 12-h hour period prior to their flight that were where they're resting and being ready and basically um getting the sleep that they need in order to conduct that mission the next day. And then um basically roughly 3 hours prior you'll get alerted to come in to the unit and go prepare and go out on that flight.

[00:21:31]And about two hours everyone arrives two hours prior to the flight. And then you start collecting information. You start providing the crew what we're going to do, where we're going, etc. And then about that takeoff time, that's when everybody's on the aircraft, you're taking off, and you're heading towards the location where you're going to hunt that storm or or uh basically collect all the data for that storm. Um and the missions can run anywhere from, you know, six to 12 hours. It just depends on how far it is to get to that and then uh basically what the hurricane center has asked us to do, you know, if there's certain different things objectives they have us um basically finding out. The planes that the hurricane hunters use are unique. They have a lot of special equipment on board. But what's interesting is that they are not much different from normal military aircraft.

[00:22:19]>> Yeah. So the the misconception is is that that C130 that the C130s that we have, we have 10 of them are built differently and like reinforced or you know armored or do whatever that they're not they're actually not um they don't have extra steel plates or you know uh anything extra on that aircraft to make it more safe. They do have weather instrumentation on it which that's where the WC130 comes from. That W means weather. So, it's weather configured. We have instrumentation. We have the crew on there on board to collect that information and and uh provide it to our customers. The one thing I will say that it does it it has um it has the nose radar on there just like other C130s, but we have a software that enhances it that allows us to determine um I would say it allows us to determine whether or not there are um tornatic signatures. it helps with the the reflectivity of it and uh gives us more um fidelity of what's actually happening in front of the aircraft.

[00:23:25]>> So, who is flying into these hurricanes?

[00:23:28]It's a lot more than just the one pilot.

[00:23:30]>> Yes. So, we have two pilots, u the aircraft commander and then a co-pilot.

[00:23:35]Uh they're obviously flying the aircraft. We also have navigators on our airplanes. There used to be a lot of navigators across the Air Force and C130s and other aircraft. they've really um basically cut back on that. But the navigator provides a crucial role in ours where they they're looking at that radar to help assist us and tell us what might or might not be, you know, good things to fly through, etc. Um and then we have uh the flight meteorologist and then the load master, the drop sign operator in the back. They're the ones that are collecting all the data. Uh the the meteorologist is telling the drop the load master where to drop those signs because they're not technically weather experts or have weather backgrounds. They're basically just following orders on what we want to do and then we are basically the meteorologists are conducting the entire mission and what you know meeting the objectives of the customers telling them where we need to go next or what we need to do next and then we're ensuring that that weather information that's getting soft off the airplane sent off the airplane is you know as accurate as it possibly can be.

[00:24:35]>> Now I guess my next question is about inflight. So how many if you know this number offhand I bet you do. How many storms have you penetrated? And what is the one that you were like, okay, >> all right, hold on. And maybe maybe like you lost a little like um kind of color in in your face or anything like that.

[00:24:54]>> I actually do not know the exact number, but I know relatively I've I've been through hurricanes roughly 150 to 175 times, somewhere in that range. Uh last year I went through I think 31 times uh a hurricane penetration. So, I'm getting up there. I've been there for 10 years, so been able to I have quite a a decent amount of experience in doing it. Um, and then I would say the the one there's been a handful of wow or oh my, you know, moments, but the one that I just I've been kind of harping on while I've been here is the hurricane Irma experience. Kind of flew it three or four times in its beginning stages all the way up to Cat 5. And uh the one of the at when it deepened and it hit its peak intensity, that was one of the ones that I was just like, "Oh my gosh." Um it was really rough and it was near land. So we we got rocked pretty good.

[00:25:45]>> So what advice from a hurricane hunter would you have for the general public?

[00:25:49]>> A lot of the times the general public doesn't really understand, you know, what impacts they're they're going to experience at their house or in their area that they live. So, I mean, the best way to understand that is to listen to their local emergency managers and their the communicators and the leaders of their community to tell them, "Hey, if they're telling you to leave, you you really need to leave." It doesn't it's it's a freebie. Leave. Why would you stay? You know what I mean? Like, it just it doesn't make sense to me that to ride a storm out when you really don't know what's going to happen. So, >> so I want to say a big thank you to Colonel Rickart for talking with me about how the hurricane hunters operate.

[00:26:27]If you want more information, be sure to stop by first coastnews.com/hurricane central. I'm meteorologist Robert Spetta.

[00:27:00]Happy.

[00:27:36]Heat. Heat. N.