Low turnout played major role in Texas runoff election results

Added: 2026-05-27

[00:00:00]Let's turn now to the Texas primary runoffs. Again, we are continuing to track the races this morning. The November ballot is coming into focus.

[00:00:08]>> All right, one of the big takeaways from last night, the turnout and how a very small share of voters can have a big impact in a runoff like this. Jalissa Gara joins us one once again here in the studio. All right, this is why these lower turnout elections can matter so much.

[00:00:24]>> Yeah, exactly, Jacob. You took the words right out of my mouth, right? And that's really the thread through a lot of these results. The Harris County clerk has pointed to voter fatigue as one factor in low turnout. And you can see why.

[00:00:35]Some voters have been asked to come back to the polls again and again over the last several months. But even when turnout is low, the impact can be huge because the people who do show up can decide who makes it to November. Now, one of the big races we've been talking about is the race for Harris County Judge on the Democratic side. Now, we're still watching the numbers closely this morning. On the Democratic side, Leticia Plamer and Anise Parker are in a tight runoff and the winner will move on to face Republican Orlando Sanchez in November. Now, Sanchez won the Republican runoff against Warren How.

[00:01:05]The Harris County judge seat is open because Lena Hidalgo is not seeking reelection. And this is a good example of why turnout matters so much in runoffs. When the numbers are this close, every small group of voters can make a real difference in who moves on.

[00:01:20]And that low turnout point also showed up in the US Senate race. where Ken Paxton defeated John Cornin in the Republican runoff.

[00:01:27]>> In this runoff election, approximately 8% of registered voters made their voices heard. And of of that 8% who voted, roughly 60% said they were ready for a different direction.

[00:01:43]Another reminder that those who show up decide for those who do not.

[00:01:52]There's a simple rule in elections, you've heard me say it before, and that is the candidate who gets the most votes wins.

[00:02:00]The party in the majority gets to govern.

[00:02:04]Jacob, that right there is the big takeaway, right? No matter what party you align with, it is important to vote, especially in these runoffs, not just general elections, because this just shows you the value of it, right? Every vote makes a big difference. And we knew that that's was going to be the case here. Obviously, Paxton's race had a much clearer outcome. We talked about that with Mike Yan. But in some of these other races like this one for county judge, it is very, very tight. So, now we just get ready for November. But with a general election, you typically see a lot more people come out and the campaigning. They've hit the ground running. I mean, if you feel like you've heard a lot and gotten a lot of text messages, prepare yourself cuz it's going to be it's going to be a big one.

[00:02:43]One of the things that stood out from the earlier conversation you had with Mike Yan was how only a third of those who'd shown up in this last election for the Democratic side showed up this time such a small number why that race is so close.

[00:02:56]>> We'll see what happens but I think this is giving us an idea of November and people who are campaigning really hard like on social media. Well, they got to take it to the ballot box. We got to see what happens then.

[00:03:05]>> We get more ads and all of it. Okay, Alona, you are taking a closer look now at the results uh with a with a helping hand over there.

[00:03:12]>> Okay, that's right. We just did a switcheroo, right? So Jalissa's taking over there. I'm taking over with Mike Yan. And we appreciate all the insight we've been getting. This is Mike Yan, professor of political science at Sam Houston State University. And you've been helping us to break this down all morning. This, of course, is the huge race that the whole nation's watching.

[00:03:30]This is making the national headlines.

[00:03:32]This is on the top of all of your uh websites today. This is the Senate race between John Cornin and Ken Paxton. And what's so interesting is that when we look at what happened yesterday, this is you would consider this basically a landslide, wouldn't you?

[00:03:47]>> Blow out.

[00:03:47]>> I mean, absolutely.

[00:03:48]>> And and what does this tell you? And does that turn out uh tell us something about this? Because when we go back, we're going to look at what happened uh in the earlier election.

[00:03:57]>> Well, it's is just fascinating because he probably outperformed what most people expected uh in March and then he only won two counties. Yeah. and Alona.

[00:04:09]Just one of those is Travis and one of these if we look at that county only eight people voted in that county. So the two counties he won could not be more atypical of Texas. One had eight voters and one is Travis County which is a blue dot in the middle of a very red state. Uh it was >> Do you see any patterns when you look at the whole state as a whole in terms of what went to Paxton and what went to Cornin? Well, it's just it's so red or I guess burgundy or brown, whatever this color is. It's just all Paxton. He won with almost twothird of the vote.

[00:04:50]>> I mean, yeah. So, so landslide, but we want to go back, okay, and we want to look at the the um the primary election, okay? Look at what a difference this showed. Okay, this is why we had to head to the runoff. This was the primary. And when we look at these numbers, I mean, it was much much closer. Cornin with 42% and Paxton had 41%. Paxton was behind and of course that endorsement from the president. But this was so close.

[00:05:18]>> Absolutely. What's interesting is Paxton actually increased his vote slightly. So even though a third fewer Republicans came out to vote in the runoff, Paxton got more votes whereas Cornin got three or 4 hundred,000 fewer votes.

[00:05:37]So what this means is Paxton kept everybody who voted for him the first time. He picked up some of these corn and people either didn't show up or they left him possibly as a result of the Trump endorsement.

[00:05:51]>> I was just going to ask how much did you think the endorsement played into this because we do know that the that you know the train had left the station to some extent when that endorsement came in.

[00:06:02]>> I I think you're right. I think that's that's uh per perceptive because I think Trump knew what was going to happen and he wanted to get on that train.

[00:06:11]>> Yeah.

[00:06:11]>> But he accelerated the train and it went from probably what would have been a decisive PAT victory to a blowout.

[00:06:18]>> I mean Cornin's Cornin's campaign has to have just been shocked at what happened there yesterday. Okay, I want to move on now to um Harris County judge um because this is the other big one that we have been watching. still too early to call on the Democratic side. We can tell you that Leticia Plameumber is leading over Anise Parker, but let's talk about what stands out um when you see these numbers. What stands out on these results?

[00:06:43]>> Well, I wasn't paying a lot of attention to this until this morning because I think this outcome, if if the results hold up, this is going to give Republicans hope. uh because I think they think that in the general election plumber will be a more beatable candidate than the former mayor Anise Parker. So this is the real surprise in Texas.

[00:07:11]>> Okay, because she has Anise Parker has so much name recognition being the former mayor. So many are familiar with her and if she ended up on the ballot, she'd be hard to beat. Uh as far as you can tell, >> I think that's correct. And I think she was really hurt by the fact that Taler Rico was not at the top of the ticket. I think he brought out a lot of moderate voters, the sort of mainstream Democrats. And I think that because they didn't have a reason to come out for Taller Rico in this runoff, she lost.

[00:07:43]She received only a third as many votes as she received in March.

[00:07:47]>> Only a third as many people.

[00:07:49]>> This was almost like the Cornin story.

[00:07:51]Okay. So, that one we're expecting to probably get some final results on um today. So, we'll be updating that one for you. And then the last one, if I can get over there. Do I need to get out of this? Um we just we want to talk about um Christian Meny staying in power after beating a longtime Congressman Al Green.

[00:08:12]This is the one that's been getting so much redistricting. There we go. Um and so as we take a look at these numbers, um Meny again, we're close to 70% of the vote. We've got another landslide to talk about.

[00:08:26]>> It is, and it was in a close race where Al Green had outperformed his expectations in March, but to no avail.

[00:08:34]And I think the Democratic party is really moving towards a younger demographic. and Al Green. Uh you see this all over the country, but Al Green was the victim of this this time and this is I think the fourth election in six months or something for this district. Uh so they have a little bit of breathing room until November, but I suspect that Menipe will carry that in November. Well, and when we see that th that high number of elections really having that impact on turnout, that's when we do start this broader conversation of consolidating some of these elections, don't we?

[00:09:10]>> This is uh one of the reasons turnout in the United States is so low. We have so many elections and we have so many elective offices.

[00:09:17]>> Okay. Are you going to sleep before November?

[00:09:20]>> I will.

[00:09:20]>> Probably not. We got we got a lot to talk about and we're going to keep the conversation going, but thanks for coming in this morning, Mike, and walking us through some of this. Jacob, >> it all makes more sense. Thank you so much, Mike.