Oil War: The Ultimate Game of Chicken

本站添加: 2026-05-05

[00:00:01]Okay. So the question for the straight of hormuz now and the Iran war is what breaks first? So the blockade is in place.

[00:00:13]There's been some reports of of some ships getting through that were later debunked and they got through the straight but they didn't get past the blockade. I can't find any credible source that shows anything has gotten past the blockade either from Iran or anywhere else.

[00:00:35]Donald Trump made a claim that commercial ships had sailed past the blockade.

[00:00:42]Cannot confirm that at all at this point.

[00:00:47]It looks like a complete closure and apparently, you know, negotiations are ongoing.

[00:00:57]If those fail and this starts back up because Donald Trump is sending troops, more troops to the Middle East and more naval assets to the Middle East, then we can, you know, then assume that once this negotiation fails, if it fails and things start back up that this Bob Eland straight will be closed. So the question will be what breaks first? And we have some new data today that I didn't have yesterday. This data comes from Kepler who states that Iran has 190 million barrels of oil on tankers around the world. This is oil that is out of the straight of Hormuz. This is oil that has already been sold. They haven't necessarily been paid for it yet. But the point is there is a blockade to stop Iranian exports of oil and they have 190 million barrels currently at sea waiting to be delivered. That is enough oil.

[00:02:12]The oil they have offshore of China waiting to offload is enough oil to keep their contract with China or their agreement with China for about 125 days.

[00:02:33]So, you know, this idea that China's hurting for Iranian oil isn't true.

[00:02:41]There's a fairly large number of Iranian tankers waiting offshore of China to unload with 125 days worth of oil of Iranian imports.

[00:02:55]Anyway, that comes from Kepler, which is a a source, a trusted source that I use. So, no, China is not hurting. And we should probably assume that Iran is selling that oil.

[00:03:16]We'll call it $100 a barrel. Now, the US lifted sanctions. They let the sanctions go. There's been some back and forth.

[00:03:26]A lot of this oil left Iran before the sanctions were lifted.

[00:03:36]This oil typically sells at a at a certain discount to the price of oil.

[00:03:41]So, I think it's safe to assume that they're going to get about $100 a barrel. Remember, the physical price is still very high.

[00:03:51]So, if they get $100 a barrel for this oil, that's $19 billion. And that is roughly half of all the revenue they brought in in 2025.

[00:04:10]So that's not a small amount of money for Iran. Now, it is a one-time thing.

[00:04:17]You know, once that oil's gone and that money's received, there's going to be a huge lag in the next money coming in because the rest of the oil is trapped in the straight of Hormuz.

[00:04:34]But that buys Iran significant amount of time.

[00:04:39]How much time? Well, that depends.

[00:04:43]But the real question is what's going to break first? Because currently nothing is getting out of the straight other than what is is getting bypassed through East West pipelines.

[00:04:56]So now we have these two forces colliding with each other. Iran has shut the door completely and the US has locked Iran out.

[00:05:07]This a giant game of chicken. That's what this is. Now here's the problem.

[00:05:11]Iran can si you know they can survive sanctions.

[00:05:15]They have survived sanctions for many years, but this isn't sanctions. This is zero exports.

[00:05:25]Now, depending on who you believe, analysts say that Iran can keep producing oil for anywhere from 3 weeks to two months before their storage fills up.

[00:05:43]So they will keep they will continue producing and just filling up their storage right 3 weeks to two months.

[00:05:54]Apparently there's some disagreement over how much available storage they have. But regardless at some point if this continues then Iran will go to where to the point where they're shutting in oil production.

[00:06:18]Now, many will say, you know, when they have to shut in oil production, that's when the revenue collapses. No, that's not when the revenue collapses.

[00:06:30]The revenue collapses after they've been paid for all of the oil that's currently floating on the water. They have not been paid for that yet, but they're about to be.

[00:06:40]in in the coming weeks.

[00:06:45]But the revenue will collapse if this goes on long enough. The currency will spiral. It's the currency is already really bad. Inflation in Iran is already really bad. It's going to get worse.

[00:06:59]So, you know, they have oil on the water.

[00:07:03]Like I said, that's a one-time payout.

[00:07:06]But let's flip the the camera here because yes, one question is can Iran survive?

[00:07:18]But can the world survive longer than Iran? That's the real question because once assuming that these negotiations fail, if if they don't if these negotiations are successful, then none of this matters, right? Like if they agree and the war ends, none of what I'm talking about matters. So for the purpose of this conversation, we have to assume the negotiations fail and that means no oil leaves Hormuz and the Bob Mandeb straight also gets closed and a lot of the bypassed oil goes away with it.

[00:08:04]You know, it's it's already the largest by far oil supply disruption in modern history.

[00:08:12]We're seeing the effects of that, right?

[00:08:15]Oil price spikes. Shipping costs are going through the roof. Inflation is accelerating. 4% was just reported 4% wholesale inflation. Growth will slow.

[00:08:28]And the International Monetary Fund is already warning that this is destabilizing the global financial system.

[00:08:42]It's going to drive up a lot of debt.

[00:08:44]It's going to slow down growth worldwide.

[00:08:48]Lots of talk about stagflation coming, right?

[00:08:53]But this there's a standoff here. Iran is bleeding internally.

[00:08:59]It's not good. Its economy is running on essentially burrowed time. But the global economy is also bleeding.

[00:09:10]It's bleeding through energy prices.

[00:09:12]It's bleeding through supply chains.

[00:09:14]It's bleeding through the financial markets.

[00:09:17]And this is where this game of chicken really kicks in because neither side can hold their position forever. So with where we are in this conflict right now, something has to give.

[00:09:33]Something is going to break. If the blockade holds and Iran's economy breaks first and they give up, well then it worked. If the shock persists and the global economy really starts to fracture, which is entirely possible and likely at some point soon, the longer this goes, the more pressure builds on everyone else, China, Europe, emerging markets, definitely Southeast Asia, like really bad. all forced to choose between economic pain and blocking the blockade or breaking the blockade or breaking up the blockade. The blockade of the blockade.

[00:10:27]The endgame here does not appear to be about missiles and ships, even though we're sending more troops at this point.

[00:10:36]The end game is about pressure.

[00:10:40]because now we're in this standoff where something is eventually going to break and the only question is does Iran run out of time first or does the world run out of stability first? Now here's my answer to that and the answer is it depends. If this goes on and the Babel Mandeb straight is closed and because of this blockade Iran does not let anything through the straight of form moves. So now we have a complete 100% closure. If that scenario right there continues the world breaks before Iran.

[00:11:21]It just does.

[00:11:26]Iran's got 19 billion in cash coming.

[00:11:31]That's an estimate, but it's pretty close. And like I said, that's half the money that they made in 2025 off oil sales when they were selling oil really cheap.

[00:11:43]This is where the lifting of those sanctions, this is where driving up these oil prices to unbelievable levels that this is the mistake the United States made.

[00:11:56]That oil would not be worth $19 billion.

[00:12:00]Otherwise, it would be worth 10.

[00:12:03]Regardless, it's worth 19.

[00:12:08]And that can sustain Iran for a very long time.

[00:12:14]months for months much longer than the world can go on in the other scenario.

[00:12:24]You know, we've managed to survive what nearly 40 days with this going on because we we were able to bypass the straight of Hormuz with several million barrels of oil. They've leaked oil out of the straight.

[00:12:46]There's there's been some leakage and and and then you know 400 million barrels the SPR that right there is 20 days of the straighted form moves. That's that's global SPRs. That's not just the US SPR but that's SPRs all over the world. That added that alone added 20 days to that 3-w weekek time frame that I was talking about weeks ago.

[00:13:20]So, I believe Donald Trump is is desperate for a deal something very similar to the JCPOA, the original nuclear deal that Obama had with Iran. He's desperate to get something like that. But Iran knows exactly what they have.

[00:13:47]And Iran knows the longer they do this, the more disruptions they cause, the more oil prices will jump right back up. $120 a barrel, physical prices going who knows where. Iran knows the longer they do this, the more they can get out of it. And they know that $19 billion dollars is coming.

[00:14:16]And for all of the celebrations about tankers coming to the United States and this amazing blockade, the fact of the matter is the blockade probably should have been the first thing they did. If if that would have been if that would have been the first thing they did, this this probably would have worked and it may still work. But as of this moment, if these negotiations fail, it's going to be advantage Iran because Iran has enough oil floating in storage around the world to sustain them.

[00:15:02]for longer than we can manage that straight to be closed. And when you add in the Bob El Mand Debb straight, that will be closed. When these negotiations fail, if they fail, it will be closed.

[00:15:19]And look, if the negotiations don't fail, none of this matters. None of it happens.

[00:15:24]Then we can address the future problems that are coming from this very long disruption.

[00:15:35]But currently as we speak, if if that all works out that way, it's advantage Iran. And oh, by the way, I still believe Iran can get oil out of the straightfor even with the blockade there.

[00:15:57]If you listen to the American Power podcast that was released yesterday, we talk about this.

[00:16:04]This blockade could turn into a game of like whack-a-ole ship to ship transfers.

[00:16:11]The ships coming through won't look like Iranian ships. It won't be ships that were at Iranian point Iranian ports.

[00:16:19]They can do shipto- ship transfers.

[00:16:25]So, we'll see how effective it is. We'll see if there's any leakage in the future. That's still a possibility. But right now, short of an agreement, it's still advantage Iran.

[00:16:47]It just is because I believe the global economy will break.

[00:16:56]and the pressure that Donald Trump will feel something to happen before Iran needs to stop because they are breaking. That's what I'm saying when I say advantage Iran. Iran can live through this blockade, I believe, longer than the global economy can.

[00:17:21]That's what I believe.

[00:17:27]because they got 19 billion in cash coming. Like you you can't, you know, you're if you're trying to break the economy.

[00:17:39]Now, with that being said, once they receive that money, it's going to have to last them a very long time because they're currently not exporting anything. And it's going right now.

[00:17:53]There's a gap that's being created every day. They're not exporting. There's a gap that's that's being created that's getting longer and longer and longer.

[00:18:05]So, it's going to be a while.

[00:18:09]Once they get that 19 billion, if this continues, it's going to be a while before they get any more money. Like, that's the last money they're going to get. So, I wouldn't assume that because they they're getting six months worth of money that they're good for six months.

[00:18:28]I would assume they're good for two or three months and then they need to get oil moving.

[00:18:35]That way they can start receiving revenue again before that 19 billion runs out.

[00:18:46]They they will need to get oil moving to continue the flow of cash before the depletion of the money that's coming. So don't assume it's six months just because it's six months worth of money.

[00:19:01]You got to consider the lag.

[00:19:06]And that's where we're at. Everything's been kind of quiet with with this negotiations going on.

[00:19:15]There's not a lot of activity right now, but we are sending more troops.

[00:19:23]That was announced eight hours after 12 hours after Donald Trump said the war is over.

[00:19:31]Not so much.

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