There Could Be a BLUE WAVE in Iowa in 2026...

[00:00:00]Hello everybody and welcome back to another video. In today's video we'll be taking a look at the state of Iowa and going in-depth on each of its four House races. Um, I do want to release a full House prediction probably in the next week or so, but given that we had Iowa's primaries on Tuesday night and given that um, this is a state where we really have just such unique uh, just percentage of races that are going to be fun to watch, I thought I'd get a head start on Iowa. Um, so just to kind of set the scene here, Iowa has four congressional districts. Um, three of these are going to be competitive in 2026. The other one is going to go pretty solidly to the Republican Party, although um, the margin could be interesting there.

[00:00:40]Um, Iowa also has a Senate race which I think will be competitive. Um, definitely not a toss-up, but it's a race that I think could move in, you know, could be one to watch um, between Josh Turek, the Democrat who won on Tuesday night pretty decisively, and Ashley Hinson who is the representative from this congressional district here.

[00:00:57]And then we have a race for governor that I think is undoubtedly be very competitive and firmly in within the range of toss-up uh, between um, Rob Sand and Zach Wahls. Now, Rob Sand is the only Democrat who was uh, who's who's been elected statewide in Iowa, uh, you know, who who's still in office, so he's definitely the strongest group for Democrats. And then in the Republican primary we had a very close finish between Randy Feenstra, the representative from that fourth congressional district, and then uh, Zach Wahls. And Zach Wahls won by about 2,000 votes less than that really, and he is kind of a political newcomer. He's not like Feenstra where he's been able to win elections in the past. So, I think he's certainly he I think for the Republicans he has a lot of upside kind of being a political outsider in a year where a lot of people are mad at the status quo, but he you know, he doesn't have that stable um, record of Feenstra of of of winning elections. So, certainly um, this is going to be one to watch. And I I I I bring up these two races not because I'm I want to talk too much about them, but I I think because they show why Iowa is interesting to watch this year. Um in 2022 and 2024 we had um the top of the ticket in both cases was pretty decisive for Republicans. I mean, in 2022 Chuck Grassley won by 12% in 2024 as you can see Kamala Harris, the Democrat, you know, lost Donald Trump by 13.3%.

[00:02:15]So, um look, I mean, Iowa has not really had a a race at the top of the ticket that was within the mid single digits since, you know, 2018 and you could maybe count 2020, but Donald Trump was really the the main figure for the Republicans in in in in that race and he won by I think eight points. So, all of that is to say that Iowa is going to be, I think, just the environment there is going to be a lot more competitive than it's been in past cycles and um that is I I think it's it's a boon to Democrats because they're going to have a bit more energy down the ballot this year, but I think it's also just going to going to make the races that much more interesting. So, um to go back to 2016, which is when Trump was first on the ballot, as we can see, um Iowa had its old configuration of uh three Republicans and one Democrat.

[00:03:03]This Democrat right here in this southeastern portion of the state, that's Dave Loebsack. Now, Dave Loebsack was a pretty moderate Democrat. You know, he had a lot of crossover appeal.

[00:03:11]I mean, this district voted for Trump in the 2016 election over Hillary Clinton by a pretty decent margin and Loebsack, I believe this is district two, won, you know, re-election by around 7.5%. So, he had a lot of crossover appeal and overall um was a good incumbent. Now, 2018 was the year where Democrats really shook it up in Iowa and they surprisingly won three of the four House seats and then actually in district four they almost won there. Now, district four is a special case because Steve King, the GOP incumbent, was very controversial. Uh you know, he he made a number of statements, especially about race, that were very very um I would argue detrimental to his electability. And JD Scholten was the last Democrat in this district to receive funding from the national party.

[00:03:52]So, the race is close. Steve King held on by about 10,000 votes, but as you can see a lot closer than it really should have been. And when Republicans primary out King in 2020, Randy Feenstra held on to that seat, you know, comfortably in 2020, 2022, and 2024. Now, as expected, Dave Loebsack in District 2 won re-election, right? You know, he won by 12 points, so it was not that close.

[00:04:14]But Democrats flipped districts 1 and 3.

[00:04:16]Now, District 1, this is the district in the northern part of the state. This is a district that was, you know, widely expected to be competitive and Abby Finkenauer beat Rod Blum, who was the former Republican incumbent in this seat and who, you know, was not the best performer. He's kind of the comparison I give people nowadays is he was he was a little bit like Mariannette Miller-Meeks, where he was viewed as being this incumbent but was not necessarily the strongest incumbent and, you know, he he he didn't do all that well in in many past elections. And Abby Finkenauer was seen as a pretty strong candidate and she was able to win this race by, you know, a pretty decisive 17,000 vote margin. I mean, she won by around five points and that was a pretty solid for the Democratic Party.

[00:04:55]Now, District 3 was interesting because this one was Cindy Axne's seat. She was the last Democrat to serve in Congress from Iowa. She was the only one who held on in 2020. Spoiler alert, she beat David Young here. Now, as you can see, David Young in 2016 actually won by a pretty good amount, amount, right? This was not a seat that was initially on the board, but Cindy Axne ran a good campaign and Democrats were able to win this one by about 8,000 votes. This one was a lot closer than the Rod Blum seat, but Democrats, I mean, they were in striking distance of District 4. They won District 2 pretty easily and Districts 1 and 3 up here, they got some flips in. And now, I think a lot of those candidate quality, both Abby Finkenauer and Cindy Axne were pretty good candidates for Democrats and especially Rod Blum for the GOP was not the strongest incumbent. Um, but what I would argue is that it was also in part due to turnout dynamics that were beneficial to Democrats and of course, um, the unpopularity of Trump. Now, Trump in 2018 was an interesting spot because his numbers were pretty, you know, low nationally, but he had you know, he was okay on the economy not, you know, unlike now where his numbers in the economy are pretty, you know, below water quite frankly. Um but the exception to this is kind of Iowa where a lot of the trade stuff and, you know, tariffs early on and then uh obviously the trade war with China that kind of had a had a I would argue a pretty objectively asymmetric harm to farmers and that, you know, really hurt Republicans in Nebraska and Iowa and even in South Dakota where Democrats nearly won the governorship. So, a few local dynamics kind of played a role in aiding Democratic candidates here. But in 2020, that kind of um you know, wasn't really as big of an issue for the GOP and Trump on the ticket boosted rural turnout which is another factor that really uh was not there for the Republicans during the midterms. And then in district, you know, in interestingly for Democrats, they held on in district three, I believe, with Cindy Axne very narrowly over David Young yet again, but then in district one where we had uh a we a Democratic flip in 2018, Abby Finkenauer in kind of an upset as you can see she was expected to win this race, right?

[00:06:45]She nearly lost to to Ashley Hinson who is now running for Senate for the GOP and then district three, or excuse me, in district two, this was the six-vote race famously in 2020 one of the closest ever in House history where Rita Hart who was the nominee after Dave Loebsack retired, she lost by six votes, right? This is a remarkably close and that election really mattered because in 2022, Mariannette Miller-Meeks won again and she won again in 2024. I think if Democrats had an incumbent, it might have been different. And by the way, you know, had Dave Loebsack not retired, I think he would still be in the House now, right? So, um that was really interesting. And I I I I hope you're all enjoying this, you know, little history deep dive because the point I'm making here is that Iowa, they've always had, you know, this district up here is, you know, has isn't going to be that close, but they've always had a battle for these other three districts and Democrats in 2020 came up just short in two of them. And then in 2022, similar thing, right? Now, district one, I believe, was not as close this time with uh Mariannette Miller-Meeks putting up her best performance probably of her career winning by seven. But in District 2, as you can see, Cindy Axne, excuse me, that's District I get them mixed up sometimes. But District 2 is District 3, as you can see, Cindy Axne only lost by about 2,000 votes. So again, Democrats just narrowly lost this seat. And this was a year where Chuck Grassley won pretty decisively at the top of the ticket. And then don't forget District 2, obviously.

[00:08:02]Uh I would argue that this was a pretty solid performance by Liz Mathis who, um you know, ran a little bit better than uh the Democratic Senate nominee Mike Franken in the district. 2024, it was kind of a a reversal where uh in Mariannette Miller-Meeks' district, we had Democrats do a lot better, right? I believe that's District 3. No, that's District That's District 1.

[00:08:23]Right?

[00:08:24]Yeah, here we go. Okay, so again, they all look very similar and they're all kind of probably geographically sized, so it's it's hard for me sometimes. But this was a seat where Democrats they lost it by seven in 2022. This time they lost it by literally just six, you know, like I think 800 votes, right? So um that was a big reversal for them. You know, really good performance there by uh by Christina Bohannan. And then the reverse is that District 2 with Ashley Hinson was not as close this time. And District 3, uh Lanon Baccam, you know, he he he did okay. He he lost to Zach Nunn by about four points. Um it wasn't as close, but it was certainly a competitive overall. So, why am I bringing this up? Well, obviously, you can see the Democrats have had just a few heartbreakers here in the past kind of four years. And I think that 2024 is especially interesting because if we look at the margins in these districts at the top of the ticket, right? If we look at the presidential numbers here. District 1, that's Miller-Meeks. Remember, she won by 800 votes. Trump won the seat by eight and a half, right? So in terms of percentages, she you know, Miller-Meeks did 8.3% worse than Trump in 2024.

[00:09:22]Ashley Hinson, she put a good you know, she put up a good performance. She won by 15, Trump won by 10. So she did really well in her district. But Zach Nunn, you know, he did okay. He uh as you can see, he won re-election by around 4% over uh Lanon Baccam, and then Trump won by 4 and 1/2 at the top of the ticket. So he you know he did okay but he was the incumbent and he really usually in these congressional races you expect the incumbent to do a little bit better. So um that is what I think the situation is here. You can see kind of right like just immediately that Mariannette Miller-Meeks consistently is the weakest Republican here and she's the one I want to start by talking about. Now if we go to 2020 we're going to go in depth here. District 1 this is a seat as you can see it's in the southern part of the state. And so Democrats do really well in Johnson County which is where you know it's it's a big college town and then we actually did see Scott County vote for Bohannan and Trump. So a little bit of crossover appeal there. This district is fundamentally a seat the Democrats I think have to win. I identified it in my potential flips video from about a week ago and really what I'm getting at here is just that look Christina Bohannan lost the seat by 0.2% in 2020 right in 2024 rather. Um that was the year where Trump won the state by 13 points. That was the year where Republicans were you know winning the house popular vote winning national popular vote for president and you know no matter what we say about 2026 no matter what we say about you know whether it's a blue wave whether it's a blue puddle or even just a neutral year um that the country should still should should still shift more than 0.2% left. So if nothing changes but the country just moves two or three points left which I think would be a pretty bad year for Democrats given all you know all things considered that would still in theory be enough to give Bohannan the advantage over Miller-Meeks not to mention the fact that as I met you know as as I did at the beginning of the video the top of the ticket in Iowa specifically there are some challenges for the GOP here right? Uh Rob Sand will almost certainly do better than Kamala Harris as will Josh Turck in that Senate race right? Maybe they won't win but I think they're going to lose by a lot less than 13 right?

[00:11:18]And then concurrently like I mentioned in 2018 this is also an issue for Republicans where the rural turnout was was not all that good for them and and we also had the concerns about the about with economy affecting farmers and that you know those concerns are still here if not even more salient given tariffs and you know, Trump's numbers nationally on the economy are worse than they were in 2018 even though his approval rating is only a little bit worse. So, um that's going on here. I think that as of right now, if you made me pick a winner here, I'd rather be Christina Bohannan and I think this is a seat favored to flip to the Democrats just because it was so close in 2024.

[00:11:52]There was just a number of advantages Republicans had back then that they don't have in 2026. So, yeah, this one I'm going to go with Bohannan but that is subject to change. It's still very competitive. Now, District 2, this one's probably the hardest for Democrats to win back. I mean, it was it you know, it like historically it's been close. Um but the problem here is that Democrats only really have one base here and it's in Cedar Rapids which is in Linn County and even Linn County as you can as you can see um in the race I hate that it does this.

[00:12:21]I I really do not like the New York Times uh UI but as you can see Linn County up here, right? It was a Harris plus 10 county that you know, Sarah Corkery only won by five. So, uh there's some down ballot lag. Part of that was Hinson being strong but I think this seat is kind of firmly in the leaning Republican column, right? I mean, Trump won it by 10 points and a lot of people like just to put that in perspective, if the environment is is is like 2018 where Democrats won by eight and a half nationally, this seat would be exactly 50/50, right? So, Democrats kind of need a 2018 style blue wave um to be at in in toss-up territory in this district and just the fact of the matter is that I don't think we're there yet. I don't think the country's there yet. Maybe it would you know, a lot of people disagree with me to be fair. I don't want to paint you know, a a false consensus but I do think that at this point in time, um we're not there yet. I'm I think it's I think the country's a lot closer to 2020 style environment where Democrats maybe win by three or four, maybe five, not eight and a half, not nine, not 10. And that puts this district in a race that should be a lot closer than 2024 where Democrats lost by 15 but probably not at 50/50. I think Democrats are going to are going to lose here by five to seven, and that's an improvement, but not super close, either. Um the one thing they do have going for them is that Ashley Hinson is running for Senate, so she's not going to you know be running for re-election here. And in 2022, the last midterm, Democrats only lost by eight. So, you know, it's it's one to watch, but it's less competitive than either District 1 or District 3.

[00:13:45]Now, District 3 is the last one that I want to look at, cuz this one to me is the most is truly the closest, the hardest one to pick.

[00:13:52]So, as I mentioned, 2024 was a margin uh in favor of um Zach Nunn by about 4% over Lanon Baccam. But this district is really interesting in terms of turnout, because this is the seat where Democrats have the biggest base in the sense that they have a pretty big Des Moines, you know, backing them.

[00:14:11]And Lanon Baccam did not do all that well in Des Moines, right? Turnout was okay for Democrats, but he really should have won by closer to, you know, 18 or 20, and he won by 12, which was the mar- you know, had he won by 20, I think it would have been good enough to win back the district, or maybe come within a thousand votes of doing so. I I I I haven't done the math, but it it it would have been very close, certainly closer than it was um you know, ultimately close to close than it ultimately ended up being. And so the point I'm making here is that the way this district operates is that when you have a presidential year, turnout rises, obviously, everywhere, cuz it's a presidential year, but it rises the most in the southern part of the district, cuz it's rural, right?

[00:14:45]These are big you know, these are Trump counties. They're just very, very favorable, you know, uh to President Trump. They come out big for him, you know, in in 2024, in 2020. And as you can see here, Trump actually outran um I believe um Zach Nunn in these counties, right? Like Ringgold, one example, he won by 51 points. Uh it was 48 for um for Zach Nunn. That's just one example, but you know, Trump did a little bit better in some of these counties, uh uh you know, on on the Missouri border that are pretty rural.

[00:15:12]In a midterm year, that is different.

[00:15:14]The turnout is is going to decrease more in these counties than it will in Des Moines or Dallas or Polk or Dallas. And Dallas County is a swing county. I think that uh Rob Sand and Josh Turck are going to win it in November for Democrats.

[00:15:25]And then obviously Polk County is a pretty blue county. And so what I would expect to happen is I think the electorate's going to shift so you know such that uh uh Dallas and Polk cast a higher share of the a higher share of the votes, you know, bigger piece of the pie than they were in 2024. And that works for the benefit of the Democratic Party in this district because even though it is obviously in Iowa which is still kind of a more rural state it isn't like you know District 1 or District 3 where you kind of have uh this dynamic of or excuse me it isn't like District 1 or District 2 where you kind of have this dynamic of you know it's it's all kind of somewhat you know small cities kind of rural right? This is just can Democrats outvote Republicans or can Republicans outvote Democrats? In 2024 Trump on the ticket Republicans have voted Democrats. I think in a midterm year especially a Democratic leaning midterm year that dynamic could be kind of the opposite.

[00:16:15]And so for that reason I think this race is close. Maybe I I would maybe pick the Democrats to flip it as of right now but it's the closest one in Iowa for sure. I think it's um a bit less certain of you know it's it's a bit harder of a pick up for Democrats than uh in the first district but it's also a lot easier for them than District 2 or obviously District 4 which is still going to be safe for the Republicans.

[00:16:35]I will say that I think that Rob Sand could win three of four congressional districts in the race for governor. I think Josh Turck might even win two of four in the race for Senate. Even though I don't think he'll win Hinson's seat.

[00:16:46]And I think that could be obviously a big benefit to Democrats down the ballot because it might raise turnout especially in like I said Des Moines.

[00:16:53]So Democrats they can win three of four congressional seats in Iowa in 2026. I think they you know that's going to be you know tricky for them in the second district but I think at the at the very least they can really shoot for two pretty realistically and a lot of it comes down to the top of the ticket but they have some good candidates. In 2024 they over performed a lot. I mean just the fact of the matter is that I don't think you know no matter what happens in these races across Iowa I don't think the Republicans are going to win um you know like Trump will not be on the ballot to put up these really good numbers for them at the top of the ticket. And that matters a lot. And we saw that in 2018, we saw that to an extent in 2022 where Democrats were a lot more competitive than they really should have been in two of these seats.

[00:17:29]And uh, in 2026, which should be bluer than 2022, at least, that could really hurt Republicans. So, uh, thanks for watching. I hope to see you on the next one. And let me know what you think.