The real estate market is experiencing a significant dislocation due to rapid interest rate hikes and peak-era pricing, creating a rare investment opportunity where investors can acquire assets at favorable valuations. This opportunity exists because investors remain anchored to recent losses while fundamentals shift, combined with strong demographic demand (aging population) and constrained new supply. The key to success lies in operational expertise, disciplined underwriting, and understanding that this is a selective environment where execution matters more than market timing.
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The Bridge Ep. 14: Opportunity Hiding in a “Fine” Economy
Added:Welcome to the latest episode of The Bridge by iCapital.
I'm Sonali Basak I'm the Chief Investment strategist at iCapital, and today I am joined by Al Rabil.
He runs Kayne Anderson, which is a $41 billion private asset manager with about half of that in real estate, which is one of the biggest topics of 2026.
No doubt.
Al, thank you for joining us here because we think about real estate and coming into this year, a lot of our clients told us it was an area that they were really excited about, yet we haven't seen them press go yet.
And I'm wondering if you can start to walk through why this is the year that this could become a much bigger opportunity for people.
It's a perfect question and actually, as you know, real estate is a huge category and so there are, you know, I say there are 10 different real estate markets and, and maybe there're more than that, but we focus on medical office, seniors, housing, student housing, light industrial with the intentionality that these are asset classes that are not highly correlated to the macro economy.
So, really the transition from overbought market to dislocated market and the opportunity to buy, we saw happen when the Fed started raising interest rates in March ‘22 through May of 2023.
And that created a situation where very few investors were really prepared for, I think, interest rate hikes and certainly the rapidity in size of those hikes.
And so that created a huge opportunity that we've been leaning into.
For many individual investors, that's a difficult situation because if you were invested in many were in ‘21 and ’22, you were suffering.
Yeah.
And so it's hard to sort of say, okay, hold on, let me, let me not worry about that down X percent.
This is the time to lean in.
It felt kind of stung.
Felt kind of stung for sure.
Um, and, and so liquidity had dried up to some extent.
Obviously fundraising was challenging.
Uh, you know, both across, you know, individual wealth channels as well as institutionally, which actually is something that added to the dislocated dynamic.
And so we've been leaning into that.
And, and my point with all of this is we actually feel like in our asset classes, we're at an inflection point where we've been waiting for 20 years for this, meaning COVID was a catalyst.
People recognize demographics as destiny, that you can see it's just data that alternative asset classes have massively outperformed traditional real estate asset classes. That dislocation continues today.
You've been really in the real estate market for decades.
And you're saying that this is essentially a once in a 20 year opportunity.
Why is that the case?
It's great that you say that.
because I say this is one of the three best buying opportunities that I've seen.
The first two being post the RTC crisis, which was well before your time Sonali, um, which was a late eighties, early nineties.
Um, and then post GFC and then when the Fed started raising interest rates, You mean savings and loans?
Uh, correct.
So, so the RTC crisis number one, GFC number two, and then ‘22-’23 started the dislocation, so.
Kind of amazing to hear you say that because on one hand, when you look at the aggregate economy right now, it's actually kind of fine, right?
I mean, there are definitely pockets that are feeling some pain.
There's what some people have called a rolling recession over the last few years, um, K-shaped economy, OK?
But, but on aggregate it's been an okay economy, yet you're saying that we're kind of seeing the most dire conditions in a real estate market that we've seen since, um, really big downturns.
The answer is yes.
And if I was ranking those buying opportunities, I would put this one as third amongst those.
But its still massive.
But it's still massive.
And the reality is that you had a 1% 10-year treasury rate and over $5 trillion injected into the US economy in ‘21 and ’22.
So you had peak in our view, peak pricing.
And you know, I'd say our view is obviously with the benefit of hindsight, the correct view that you had peak pricing, which was followed by that interest rate hike, which created the dislocation that we're talking about.
So listen, I'm old enough to know that these interest rates are not high interest rates.
If you look from 1962 to 2008, you never had a single year where the average tenure treasury was below 4%.
Historically speaking, we're actually in a low interest rate environment today we're just much higher than post QE 2012 through 2022.
And not surprisingly, a significant number of investors were not disciplined in their approach in ‘21 and ’22 when capital, when debt was free, liquidity was, was, you know, massive and prices were high.
And that created a pain dynamic followed by very fast interest rates that we've been able to lean into.
But I think more importantly, on a longer term basis, the next decade, what we see and the next decade plus is, and the reason that we love the verticals that we're in is because you just have incessant demand that's escalating every single year, massively aging US population, 11,000 people a day, turning 65, 5,000 people a day, turning 80.
That has not stopped-people living longer.
So that demand dynamic is here through 2050.
Now demand can be overrun with excessive supply, but we don't have the dynamics for that to happen today.
How big is the shortfall?
Well, it really depends on, on asset class, but there is a significant shortfall that is being, becoming exacerbated every single day.
And I, and I know you know this, you know, one of the, one of the darling real estate asset classes today is seniors housing, which obviously, you know, a mere five years ago was, you know, highly challenged for obvious reasons.
And people are seeing what we've been saying for 15 years, and that is the demographic dynamics and the supply demand imbalance, et cetera.
Now that changes pricing to a point, and actually we've been leaning in from a selling standpoint more than a buying standpoint on seniors housing.
Not because we don't like the asset class, but because cost basis is your most important determinant of return.
So when you have a multitude of people, people, institutions, investors, globally agreeing on what a great thesis it is, that generally translates into, let's say, very efficient pricing, putting it nicely.
Is there anything about the current environment that is making that cost basis more difficult?
Just raw materials, labor costs, um, interest rates, all of that, uh, is the reason that you've seen supply constraints, which is why you don't have the dynamics in place today.
So you've got a combination, at least in our asset classes of escalating demand and constrained supply.
Every vertical that we're in is down somewhere between 20 and 70% versus its last 10 year average in terms of deliveries.
So you've seen a dramatic reduction in new supply at exactly the inflation, inflection point that you're seeing a massive escalation- now, you've had a massive escalation in demand for the last 20 years.
Most importantly, we target the high end of these markets.
And so the fact that the baby boom generation is now aging into its seniors housing living years, and that the baby boom generation is a lot of that demographics as destiny, uh, you well know, um, at icap, $80 trillion plus or minus of wealth is controlled by the baby boom generation.
So this is a very interesting timeframe and we sort of feel like we've been building this platform for 20 years for this exact moment in time.
And, and part of that dynamic is people can decide to invest in these asset class people, institutions, funds, sovereign wealth entities, et cetera.
What you can't do quickly is create operational expertise quickly.
And these are non commoditized real estate asset classes.
So unlike multifamily or office where arguably there are a multitude of highly qualified players, you don't have that here.
So it's, it's an exciting time for us because while more capital is coming into these asset classes, we are not competing on a level playing field, meaning we have strategic advantages from a buying perspective that are not going to change anytime soon.
But the capital coming in is hugely beneficial because that's looking for safety and security.
Essentially, most of that capital coming in is looking to actually buy from us or partner with us, not compete directly with us.
You know what's interesting, one of the things I've loved doing with you over the last several years is really just talking about the process, actually.
What do you see that other people don't see in terms of actually scouring the world for deals?
I think this is really your secret sauce because when you've been in a market for so long, when you understand the nuances and when you live in that realm of opportunistic, you're seeing things before other people see them realistically speaking.
So bring us inside the deal engine.
Well, that's very kind of you to say, and I would not have enough, you know, I, I don't have hubris to say that I, I don't wanna put myself on a pedestal in terms of like, the reality is the, the vision that, I've had and that we've had was steeped in my experience.
And some of it is skill and some of it is luck.
And I started out in student housing in the early two thousands, well before there was any institutional capital coming into that asset class.
And so a massive supply demand imbalance, we then extended that to seniors housing and medical office about 10 years later, roughly 2012, 2013.
And now light industrial. There's no massive epiphany there.
It was simply looking at demographics and the demand dynamics, not for a year, two years, three years, but for 40 years and saying these are massively underserved and underinvested asset classes that have very long duration demand trends.
There are other things behind it, but stating the obvious, these are also operationally intensive asset classes.
And I'm not unique, but I'm in rarefied air on the private equity side of the, uh, of the house having been a sponsor.
So I've been on the other side of the table, I've developed student housing, I've bought student housing, I've been that person on, I've been, you know, that person on the other side of the table.
And so I think that gave me some insight beyond just looking at a spreadsheet, sort of blocking and tackling.
But even beyond that, you know, when you say that this is kinda the once in a 20 year opportunity, what does that look like on the ground?
So an asset that might have been overvalued in 2020, 2021, what does that look like in the last couple of years?
What does it look like now?
So, what it looks like now, and maybe just, you know, point to reality in something that you know, is, has been well documented is, you know, our acquisition of medical office from Welltower, which is perfect example for both, both us and Welltower, the largest publicly traded REIT of a win-win situation.
We've had an 11 year very longstanding, very great relationship with Welltower, that was part of why that transaction came to fruition.
But Welltower wanted to be a single sector REIT.
It makes sense.
They're fantastic at seniors housing.
The market recognizes them for that. Medical Office at Welltower was a secondary business.
For us, it's a primary business.
We have tremendous operating skills in that asset class.
So that was an off market deal with a publicly traded company that we were able to get to the closing table in six months and that was 18 million square feet across 34 states, roughly 300 properties.
You know, to my point before, there are not many others, if any others that could do that boots on the ground work in that timeframe, because we've been in the space for 15 years, we already had 400 employees in Medical Office.
So what does it look like?
It looks like preparation, meeting opportunity.
We have a strategic advantage of being in a place that others aren't and size and scale where we can be a certainty of closed buyer where others can't.
So it's not generically sort of let's find this golden nugget that nobody else can see.
It's really setting up a platforming capabilities, equity debt, operating capabilities where the seller knows and has complete confidence that we can come in with no financing contingency, we can close in a very short timeframe.
And that has that, that feeds its way through to pricing that works for us.
But we're, we're doing that and Welltower's a perfect example.
That transaction was fantastic for them and it was fantastic for us and they actually provided half of the equity in that transaction.
So they are continuing to benefit from our operational expertise and we're benefiting from owning those assets.
So I want to switch gears a little bit and talk just about the macro, because I think what's interesting about talking to the, about the macro with you is that you see it in practice with all the properties that you own and, and you know the bets you're about to make.
Um, you know, you had mentioned this idea of interest rates having been higher in other periods of course, but there's still a generation that has not seen interest rates this high and it is unclear how much lower they will get, especially at the longer end.
Or even if.
“If”. So, what's your view maybe like what's just your baseline here in terms of how the world plays out from an interest rate perspective?
It's a great question because I always say you can't be a disciplined investor without having a perspective on where we are and where things are going.
Doesn't mean you're always gonna be right.
And I say it's more important to be correct directionally than correct, specifically meaning whether the Fed lowers interest rates three months from now or not is relatively irrelevant for longer term hold assets.
But whether interest rates are going lower in the future or not is critically important.
So, you know, what do I see today?
I see higher for longer interest rates, which, which I saw last year as well.
Um, I think that if you are relying on any kind of near term interest rate, you know, any kind of near term interest rates being lower, that's fool's gold.
And, and you know, do I think we will probably have a fed cut if not two fed cuts this year?
Probably.
So you're saying even if you get one or two, are you saying that it's kind of hard to get more from there?
It's hard to get more from there, but what I'm saying is directionally I do believe we're headed to a lower interest rate environment.
Why do I say that?
Because longer term you have both AI and demographics that are massively deflationary.
So I do think directionally we're gonna see lower interest rates.
Our strategy doesn't depend upon that.
It is a benefit for real assets stating the obvious.
You have higher pricing if you have lower interest rates.
And I do think that over the next two to five years we will be in a moderately lower interest rate environment.
I do not think we're getting back to where we were pre-COVID or ‘21 or ’22.
Um, I think we're probably looking at, you know, a hundred basis point decline in the SOFR rate over time and that is beneficial and that's probably a logical place to be.
So what you really need to look at is the fundamentals of the assets that you're investing in, and you need the correct cost basis and the right financial structure.
And where, where we are today is that a significant number of high quality assets do not have their, do not have the correct financial structure.
So that has to be reworked.
Right, The maturity wall is coming up.
Maturity wall, but now <laugh> Don't get me started.
No, no, I've, I'm old enough.
I've heard maturity wall for 30 years.
It never seems to really come to fruition in terms of like, you never really hit the wall.
It's sort of like, oh, there's a trillion.
Its more dramatic than it seems.
Correct.
I mean it just, it sort of works its way through and I think that will happen this time around as well.
What's your best guesstimate, right, on where we are in that, you know, ever elusive maturity wall.
Listen, things are gonna have to be reworked, but I think they're gonna be reworked logically, yes, some are gonna feel pain.
Do I think we're going to have, you know, a massive number of defaults?
No, I don't.
I do think bringing it back to us specifically and the opportunity set that we see, we see the ability to step into some broken financial situations with very high quality operators, with very high quality assets to do some things strategically.
And I think that opportunity for those who have equity and debt capital available and capabilities is there and a very, very real significant opportunity.
You know, I'm the dummy with the 6% mortgage, right? <laugh> So I love this conversation because you know, I've been waiting to refinance and that moment has never come <laugh>.
And so if you were borrowing with some spread over 0% interest rates, <laugh>, then you're coming to 2026, you know, you could have borrowed before 2020 and you're, you're sitting here still with a meaningfully higher rate.
So that's what's really coming to the surface for you now.
And what you're saying it sounds like is if you're borrowing today at those higher interest rates, rates are gonna come down.
So that's why it seems to me, and we also believe by the way, that value added opportunistic real estate is, is our top pick within real estate.
So why That?
Glad to hear that.
It is it is, it is, and you know, when you think about this year, those are the reasons why, but why value add over core and how do you define those things?
So, you know, if you ask 10 different people, you'll get 10 different definitions.
And when I'm thinking of value add and, and core, I more think of return dynamics.
So I say in our, you know, when we're targeting opportunistic returns, we do that with a value add strategy targeting core risk.
And what I mean by that is that we're an operator oriented platform, so we're buying at the right cost basis.
And there are a myriad of reasons that we're doing that.
A lot of that emanates from our operating capabilities, but then we're taking what somebody else had and improving it because we have operating skills that that seller didn't have.
And so we're taking cash flowing assets, improving them, and there is a significant de-risking from having current cash flow so that even if you don't hit your targets in terms of rental rate gains or occupancy or whatever, there is a floor so that if you're targeting 20% gross returns, if you're not hitting that, you're hitting 13% gross returns.
It's not a binary, you know, it's not, you're not down 20%.
And so there's a comfort level in that.
And a, and part of I think what, and I'm sure it goes into your analysis in terms of alternatives and value add real estate, is you really want asymmetric return-risk dynamics, not asymmetric risk-return dynamics.
And a lot of that is looking at enduring cash flows and what are the risks inherent in what you're doing.
So we spend 99% of our time thinking about downside scenarios, not projecting anything above a base case or we look at that as optionality on incremental returns.
So yes, if interest rates go lower, that's gonna mean higher prices.
The bigger thing for us is that I think we're at the, in the very early stages of what is going to continue to be a massive rotation of capital into alternatives, you know, know which the, the reasons are somewhat obvious, but COVID happened, office and retail in terms of attracting new capital basically went away. That was plus or minus 50% of allocations institutionally over the last 20 years.
And now you have all of a sudden you're like, okay, well if I'm going to be in real assets, I have to find other places to put it. And what has performed?
So you look at medical office, seniors housing, student housing, you look at other things, we're not in data centers as an example and you are seeing capital going there, but it is, these are such under invested asset classes globally even today that I think that continues for 10 plus years and that creates a broader, deeper buyer base, more efficient pricing, all of the things that that, you know.
So, one more thing about interest rates here, because I wanna separate the short term trajectory from the long term.
And when you say you believe interest rates are gonna be lower, do you think that that's also gonna be true for the long end of the curve?
10 years and longer?
I think 10.
I think the 10 year will come down not basis point for basis point with SOFR, I think we're gonna hover around four and when I look out three to five years, my job isn't to project, you know, I'm not an economist and I'm not going on TV saying, you know, in Q3 of 2028, I expect the 10 year to be, you know, 3.6%.
I'm just more looking directionally and saying with some degree of confidence, do I expect lower interest rates and by how much?
And so, I believe that that is the case. Now it's, I think it's incredibly important, and this is what we do in our business, is we do not underwrite for lower interest rates.
So, we're not getting to returns through cap rate compression because interest rates are lower.
We're actually looking at where we are today and basically assuming that we don't improve from there.
Realistically speaking, it's that 10 year and longer that matters more for the real estate market, isn't it?
Yes and no because the vast majority of borrowing is actually done on, you know, a five year basis generally, you know, sort of three, one and one, um, using SOFR and floating rate and then probably synthetically fixed either, you know, either through swaps or buying caps.
So a lot of the real estate market is geared on the short end of the curve.
So it might be okay that we're higher for longer at the long end.
Correct.
I don't think that has as much impact as SOFR has actually.
Interesting.
Well I, before I let you go, I just want to double down on the thought you had around AI and how that might increase productivity.
We haven't actually seen that yet.
Not really, right.
So why do you believe that AI will make such a big difference?
Well, we're seeing it on a daily basis now, you know, there are uncomfortable truths about that and that you've got, you know, are we going to a jobless economy, et cetera.
I would look historically, and I'm not going to pretend to be a prognosticator or have information that anybody else doesn't have. But we've never, this is truly a revolution and we've never had a productivity revolution, the industrial or any other revolution, that has not ultimately resulted in improved efficiency as well as jobs, those jobs are going to change.
But do I think we're going to a jobless society?
No, I don't.
Part of what we love about what we invest in is that the physical assets that we own are in no way, shape or form threatened by AI. Medical Office you know, if, if you need an MRI, you need an MRI, you can look at an MRI, you know, remotely, you can improve efficiency with AI in medical and in in many other, but you cannot, you are not obviating the need for the physical real estate.
Where we see AI helping is actually in everything else that we do - back office sourcing, all of that.
And that, that eliminates the need for people in a lot of ways and creates massive efficiency where we can literally hit a button and say, what is the lowest cost for toilet paper nationally for our 50 million square feet of medical office?
I think when you combine increasing demand for the physical assets we own with increased efficiency on the operations side, you're looking at higher, you're looking at higher margins, and that's a recipe for success.
AI obviously has a massive number of implications.
One of the reasons that we are not investing in data centers is not because we're telling investors, like many of the investors you deal with, whether it makes sense to invest in data centers or not, we see the growth, our view was we cannot be the best GP for you in data centers.
We don't have access to the same level of capital that many others do.
We have access to a lot of capital, but we're talking about, you know, one data center can be a billion dollars plus.
So you need a, you need a massive level of capital.
You have, it's really an infrastructure play with energy.
You've got technological dynamics that we don't pretend to understand or forecast, meaning what happens with memory going forward?
What happens with Helium prices?
Helium prices or, or, you know, or quantum dynamics because that could massively change the asset class.
So, you know, but, but you do bring up a point that I think is, is something we're starting to see that maybe is a little lesser talked about, this idea that with the proliferation of a digital world, you actually have a lot of investors who are scouring the earth looking for physical assets, right?
Especially with all this uncertainty and, and real estate seems to be a part of that story.
Would you agree with that?
I agree with that.
And, and listen, hard assets, these things, hard assets.
Now could they be tokenized?
Can they be bought by the masses?
Are there different ways in the future to invest?
I think so.
And that, that would create more efficiency, higher prices.
That's the exciting bar, right?
That's sharing the wealth, correct?
Yeah, that's hopefully that's sharing the wealth.
Yeah. It's also sharing the risk, right?
Yes, Yes.
But no risk, no reward, right?
It's just how much risk. Correct.
That is at the crux of what we do is that these assets are not highly correlated to the macro economy.
Demand continues to escalate regardless of what is going on.
And there is no path to these physical assets being irrelevant or obviated because of AI or other dynamics.
And so it's not unique, but it's rarefied air that that's the case.
Because when you look at AI and the implications broadly, there are a lot of assets that are directly tied, you know, positively or negatively to, oh, excuse me, to that dynamic <laugh>.
So, you know, um, one, one more thing before I let you go.
Um, usually you end on a high note, right?
A positive note, but on this one I actually wanted to get your view on the biggest risk out there.
Let's put a positive spin on it.
You know, if there's one thing investors should be keeping their eye out for over the next 12 months, the one risk that they should just be alert to, what would that be?
So I've said for a long time, and it's stating the obvious geopolitical uncertainty is the greatest risk out there.
There's no doubt about that.
Um, what we generally do and what we've done is drown out the noise because we are U.S. only the, the spectrum of potential outcomes is not under writeable.
And my strong belief is that the U.S. will continue to be the best place in the world to invest.
And so, there will be fits and starts, there may be bumps in the road, there's certainly volatility.
Um, and it's easy for any of us to go down rabbit holes of negativity today.
We're a very divided population.
There are a lot of negatives, but I take a broader view and say, look back a hundred years, has there ever been a point in time when you look back that people are like, oh, this is fantastic, everything's great, things are perfect.
They look better in retrospect because you're not there at the moment.
So yes, there are difficult times, but I, I still see America as the center of the world from an innovation perspective, rule of law, certainty of return.
And so for investors out there to take a simple equation, if you just have invested in the S&P for the last 60 years, it's up plus or minus 10.5% for 60 years.
Now that's, there's some ups and downs, but you, you, you need to have the fortitude to be able to just, you know, put mon you know, invest money in places that you think makes sense and not worry about it in the short term.
Al thank you so much for joining us.
That is Al Rabil.
He is the CEO of Kayne Anderson.
And I'm Sonali Basak with The Bridge by iCapital.
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