Exit polls for the 2026 Tamil Nadu elections project DMK with a majority of 125 seats (±11), TVK with 63 seats (±11), and AIADMK with 45 seats (±11), suggesting DMK will retain power despite anti-incumbency, with TVK benefiting from personality-driven voting patterns where Thalapathy Vijay's popularity primarily draws votes from AIADMK rather than DMK.
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Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: Today’s Chanakya Gives DMK Majority, TVK Strong Debut | N18SAdded:
Chanakya is also giving an edge to the DMK in Tamil Nadu. So, this is another one of those polls that is more or less meeting what the average position of the exit polls has been. They are saying They're actually giving DMK a whopping majority, 125 seats plus or minus 11.
45 to AIADMK plus or minus 11 again.
But, TVK, okay, so this one is also putting TVK in second position at least if not in pole position. 63 seats plus or minus 11 for the TVK as far as the Chanakya poll is concerned. But, they are projecting that DMK will retain power. So, this is another one of those outlier polls that has come in now a day after. 30% vote share according to this poll for uh Vijay. So, Abhijit, we've got one more poll then that is suggesting that the damage that Vijay could be causing one could be substantial. And secondly, it is the AIADMK that will pay for the damage that he's causing.
>> So, so see, this is one more thing that doesn't make sense. If there's anti-incumbency, then how is it going to the TVK? See, naturally, it should go to the ADMK.
Vote against the DMK, vote for TVK because he's not been attacking the ADMK. All his speeches, he's been attacking the DMK.
>> But, weren't you making the point that AIADMK is, you know, personality-driven, Vijay is personality-driven? So, if Vijay was to hurt someone, it would be AIADMK. That that is the thing. The only thing that makes sense is that he has taken away the ADMK vote. He has not taken away the DMK vote. And you know, every time the BJP was before the elections, the BJP was getting so thrilled, "Ah, Thalapathy Vijay, Thalapathy Vijay, we're going to field him. He's going to do this. He's going to completely destroy the DMK." I went on telling them. I went on telling them, "He's going to destroy you a more before he destroys the DMK." Yes, Mr. Murlidhar, do you want to come in here?
What's happening here? Your calculations seem to have been the AIADMK's calculations seem to have been completely off.
As Mr. Abhijit said, the anti-incumbency is towards DMK. You know, and Vijay has been projecting them as his primary rival. So, and the Christian votes, like forget, you know, ADMK and BJP because Christian votes and Muslim votes are not expected to come to them.
They were supposed lock, stock, and barrel is for ADMK all this while. So, if at all Vijay is going to walk into, he's going to take away, he'll probably take 90% of the Christian vote cuz he being a Christian. Muslim votes, he may not probably take 30-40%. If he does that, the dent is made because 2021 election, the difference between DMK and ADMK, the losing margin was 4.41% if I'm right. And some 30 constituencies, it was only 3 and 1/2%.
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