Robespierre Live! Can The King Of The North Win?

Ajouté : 2026-05-24

[00:00:51]Good evening, folks, and welcome to the live stream. I hope you're all very well this evening. Sorry about Friday last. I was far away from home, and I wasn't able to get back in time for the live stream. Apologies for that. So, anyway, great to see you all tonight. I hope you're well. Um and I hope it wasn't anyone's birthday on Friday, so >> [laughter] >> so I missed uh wishing them happy birthday.

[00:01:11]Um so, what we're going to talk about tonight, of course, the by-election that's taking place in a few weeks' time. And it seems that Reform UK have selected their candidate. Although, as I'm going to show you, the vetting process leaves a lot to be desired. Um we'll talk also a little bit about Brexit.

[00:01:27]We'll talk about um life expectancy in the UK, which is a bit concerning. But we'll go to that a a little bit later on the on the live stream. So, I hope you're all very well. Remember to smash the like button if you haven't already.

[00:01:39]It helps the stream. And uh let's jump into this. So, we have here a story uh the big story of today is Robert Kenyon Kenyon, I think I'm pronouncing that correctly, announced as Reform UK candidate for Wakefield by-election.

[00:01:55]Robert Kenyon has been selected as Reform UK's candidate for the Mid Cheshire by-election next month. Nigel Farage's party had has unveiled uh Canyon as their candidate in the past few moments. The by-election has been confirmed in Parliament this morning and it's due to take place next month, though we don't have the exact date of it yet.

[00:02:13]Uh I think it's maybe the 18th of June.

[00:02:16]I'm not or maybe it's the 8th of June.

[00:02:18]It's It's something like almost uh It's just over 4 weeks away, I think.

[00:02:22]Anyway, um not that important, but this is the This is the Reform UK candidate. And I had actually believed it was going to be somebody much high profile, much higher profile than this guy. I thought it was going to be maybe um what's his name? Uh I forget the guy with the the the pad on his ear.

[00:02:43]>> [laughter] >> Um when uh when Donald Trump got shot.

[00:02:46]Um Bull, what's his name? David Bull. Dr. David Bull. So, I thought actually he was going to be the candidate.

[00:02:53]Um or even maybe Matt Goodwin would try and give it another go. But, it seems they went with a local guy, but um there are a few problems with this local guy >> [laughter] >> because either Reform UK didn't do the vetting process or they did, but they simply simply didn't care because this guy has deleted Well, his account on on social media, Twitter account has been suspended, which is very strange because, you know, it's very difficult to have your account suspended, you know, under the current regime. But, um a few of his comments were saved by people in the media and people on social media.

[00:03:30]Says here, Reform UK's Reform's Mid Cheshire candidate said King should open up Buckingham Palace for asylum seekers.

[00:03:37]Hmm. So, he's Is he on the left? No, not really. Uh here are some of the comments he posted on social I don't know if you Let me see if I can zoom in a little bit so you can see it a bit better.

[00:03:47]There we go. Should be able to see it a little bit better for Uh he was replying to Owen Jones. Uh, let's be honest, Owen, they were never a threat. There was never a threat from the far right because they don't really exist. Okay.

[00:04:00]>> [laughter] >> So, this is a guy who doesn't believe the far right exist. Maybe it's because um Poor Max is late.

[00:04:08]I'm late?

[00:04:09]Has Has the time changed or something?

[00:04:17]There's a different stream ongoing, folks.

[00:04:22]Oh, apologies for the What the heck? Oh, no, don't dismiss the other stream that didn't get shut down.

[00:04:30]I'll have to look into that. Just bear with me for a moment.

[00:04:48]No, I can't do it from here.

[00:04:54]This should be the stream.

[00:05:08]Not again. What the heck is going on?

[00:05:25]I'm confused. You guys are saying that you're going to another stream.

[00:07:44]>> Mhm.

[00:08:15]>> Okay. Oh, no, not that. Okay. Uh guys, not exactly sure what's going on. Can you guys see me on the screen?

[00:08:56]Okay, guys, sorry about that. I'm not sure what was going on. Um okay, you guys are here now. So, there are two streams running, one which has nothing on it, and there's this one which has me on it.

[00:09:11]I'll shut down the other stream uh later.

[00:09:34]Good evening, everyone. I hope you can hear me. Let me know if you can hear me in the chat.

[00:09:56]Can you guys hear me?

[00:10:38]Can you guys hear me? Or is it's Is there still a problem?

[00:11:21]I'm just checking if the chat is working. So, when you guys if you guys can confirm that you can Okay.

[00:11:33]So, I think I'll explain what happened.

[00:11:34]I think what happened was when I set up the live stream on Friday, I forgot to switch it off.

[00:11:41]>> [laughter] >> And when I logged in here, it the software I use selected we can hear you on the stream. Okay, cool. Now, I just just explain what happened. So, I think what happened was I was on the I set up the live stream for Friday and then what happened was I forgot to switch it off. So, when I logged on here, the software jumped to the other stream for some reason and not the new stream which I had set up earlier today. So, hopefully you guys can hear me and and everything is okay. So, what I was talking about is we have a candidate for Reform UK. His name is Robert Kenyon. I think I'm pronouncing that correctly.

[00:12:19]Announced as Reform UK candidate for Makerfield by-election. Robert Kenyon has been selected as Reform UK's candidate for the Makerfield by-election next month.

[00:12:29]Nigel Farage is talking he has unveiled as their candidate in the past few moments. The by-election has been confirmed in Parliament this morning and is due to take place next month. We although we do not know the exact date of it yet for it yet.

[00:12:43]Um Thank you for reading the wrong chat chat [laughter] Max. This was a non live one.

[00:12:50]Thanks. Sorry about that guys.

[00:12:53]Um Hi Joe.

[00:12:57]So, this guy is okay. I had actually thought that they were going to put forward so you can see the chat but not the the other one.

[00:13:07]I can see this chat. I can see everything before but I I thought you guys could see me but for some reason that wasn't working. Um you're live on the other one and everyone's saying they can hear you but they can't see their replies. Okay, it's all messed up tonight. Apologies guys.

[00:13:23]>> [laughter] >> As long as you can hear me now and you can see me and I'll try and respond to the chat as as best I can.

[00:13:31]So, when it comes to Reform UK, I think I had actually expected them to put forward a high-profile candidate. I thought maybe David Bull, the former chairman, who's now replaced by Lee Anderson. I actually thought he'd be somebody like Matt Goodwin again. He'd give it another go. But instead, they chose a local guy, and he's a plumber, or he was a plumber at one stage. Um, but uh now it's the case that he's a candidate for Reform. But as I'm going to show you, there are a few problems with the the vetting process.

[00:14:06]>> [snorts] >> For example, this is from Metro. Reform Reform's Mark Sorry, Mark Makerfield candidate said King should open up Buckingham Palace for asylum seekers.

[00:14:22]He replied to Owen Jones on social media. Now, his social media account has been suspended for some reason. You know, it's very difficult to have your social media account on X or Twitter suspended in this day and age. You'll be for if you wrote racist stuff, you'd be suspended.

[00:14:38]Now, it's Yeah, you can write whatever the hell you want.

[00:14:41]>> [snorts] >> Anyway, it says here Um, so he's replying to Owen Jones, who generally works for the Guardian.

[00:14:49]>> [snorts] >> Let's be honest, Owen. There was never a threat from the far right, because they don't really exist.

[00:14:55]>> [laughter] >> So, the far right don't really exist, according to this guy. And which [snorts] is interesting, because Nigel Farage kept saying that he's the one who kept the far right at bay.

[00:15:05]Nigel Farage was demanding uh the respect of the public, because This is interesting. If I go to the multi-chat multi-stream chat, I can see all the comments. But if I go to YouTube, I can't see all the comments for some reason. So, I'll keep the multi- screen multi stream chat open so I can read I can see all of your comments now.

[00:15:26]For some reason it's not working anyway.

[00:15:28]Never mind.

[00:15:29]>> [snorts] >> Not not a problem for you guys.

[00:15:31]I can you has a lot of political experience for a reform UKR. Uh he was selected to be counselor a couple of years ago and hasn't yet attended council meetings.

[00:15:42]Oh my goodness.

[00:15:44]Um Wasn't he wasn't he a candidate in 2024 to be an MP? He but he lost. He lost to the the current labor Well, the guy who's just resigned I think.

[00:15:55]>> [snorts] >> Uh I mean um Winstanley Makerfield name voting for Andy.

[00:16:05]Uh No, what made him select a plumber?

[00:16:10]Yes, could it be anything to do with the green candidate or the green MP uh in Gorton and Denton. I can't be asked doing two YouTubes in once. Only here for a bit. Okay, sorry about that.

[00:16:24]Uh so I'm reading your comments now guys. Apologies. The whole thing is messed up tonight. Apologies again.

[00:16:31]And considering the reactions to Led By Donkeys genius by little Tommy T.

[00:16:36]>> [laughter] >> I said the far I do exist. Yes, they were pretty upset about that. Anyway, let's go to the next one which is once again from Robert. It says here to the home office.

[00:16:46]Is it a hate crime for Asian men to walk around in Birmingham assaulting white people en masse?

[00:16:53]Um So, that's the guy there um re retweeting from GB News. I think the king should open up his palaces uh and grounds for asylum seekers.

[00:17:08]So, this is in response to the king could perhaps be seen to be encouraging those counter protest to go on to the streets. This is somebody from GB News.

[00:17:17]Uh in reply to Richard Tice, um we're being we're being gaslighted on the on [snorts] an industrial scale.

[00:17:29]We're being put at risk due to the invasion of foreign criminals.

[00:17:33]So, the the term of invasion, once again.

[00:17:39]How much plumbing does this guy actually do?

[00:17:41]>> [laughter] >> As opposed to just writing on Twitter all the time.

[00:17:46]Anyway, and he replied here, uh I'm sure you I'm sure you know what colonize means. We colonized America, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Rhodesia, but we don't Well, we didn't colonize India.

[00:18:02]Okay.

[00:18:03]Seems Seems like a nice guy. Seems like a a jolly chap.

[00:18:08]Do you think Canyon has a has a crypto wallet? Of course, he does.

[00:18:11]>> [laughter] >> Everyone in in in Reform UK has a crypto wallet. Um Greens still have not announced their candidate for the by-election. Yeah, so I wanted to wanted to talk a bit about that. Um I think that the Greens should If they're putting forward a candidate, they shouldn't campaign. So, there's a difference between not putting forward a candidate and putting a forward a not putting forward a candidate and another and and also putting forward a candidate and not campaigning. So, I think Look, I think they're going to put forward a candidate. They've said that they're going to do that.

[00:18:46]But, I think they should avoid campaigning so that this doesn't split the vote, and it doesn't stop Andy Burnham. Can you imagine a situation where >> [snorts] >> Andy Burnham loses by, you know, a few thousand votes, and those few thousand votes went to the Green Party.

[00:19:03]People would be very upset. And rightly so. Like, I'm not an advocate for people not voting for a party that they want, but the choice here is you know, there's [snorts] a possibility of stopping Nigel Farage from getting into number 10 by voting for Andy Burnham.

[00:19:21]Andy Burnham has a much better approval rating than Keir Starmer has.

[00:19:25]Um he's much more popular.

[00:19:27]He is popular with people who voted for Reform UK in 2024 or who who sorry, who voted for Reform UK in 2026, the local elections. They're people who voted uh for Reform UK because they were or the Greens because they were angry with the Labour Party for this for not allowing Andy Burnham to run in Gordon and Denton.

[00:19:50]So, this is Andy Burnham's to lose, yeah, but what will Burnham do differently to Starmer? I I think I I don't know, actually.

[00:20:00]Uh he he's more popular, so which could help him, which could help the Labour Party. Um he is he seems to be somebody who's because of his policies in Greater Manchester, he's like putting free buses. He he seems to be more on board with dealing with homelessness, dealing with um social issues.

[00:20:21]I I think he's he seems to be to the left of of Keir Starmer on some Now, once again, you know, if he's not replacing Keir Starmer with somebody else, uh will only help the party so far. I I keep saying this. It keeps It comes down to policies. It comes down to what you can actually achieve. What if you're able to improve people's lives. I've said before, you know, Jesus Christ or or or Attlee could come down >> [laughter] >> um and try and run the Labour Party, but if if the policies remain the same and if the the general public don't feel better off, then uh it doesn't matter who's running the party, they're going to lose.

[00:21:03]So, Burnham Burnham at least has a lot of popular support, so he'll have a stronger mandate in a sense to to redirect the the Labour Party. You know, it depends on who he surrounds himself with as well, because if he's going to embrace the the blue Labour Labour types, then um you know, these are the people who want to focus more on immigration and cutting uh welfare, he's not going to succeed. So, I think um Regan Lily, thank you so much for that super chat.

[00:21:35]Unfortunately, I have to see it on the multistream, so uh I'll ask the moderators if they can um let me know when I receive a super chat because I don't get a notification. Oh, we have one from Brad. Thank you so much, Brad. A little bit earlier on. Um In light of Farage's uh crypto bong, as ex-police have now increased their reward for providing [laughter] information leading to his whereabouts to 500,000 lbs.

[00:22:03]>> [laughter] >> Thanks, Brad. Um We'll eventually be able to eventually be able to catch him.

[00:22:11]>> [laughter] >> Uh thanks, Brad. Um We have one from uh Regan Lily. Andy is a member of the Labour uh member of Labour Friends of Israel.

[00:22:23]Which could be a bit of a problem when it comes to dealing with Israel and dealing with the the situation in Gaza.

[00:22:29]So, I don't know how far he's going to to go with that. I don't know whether he will um whether he'll pick sides.

[00:22:37]That remains to be seen. So, Uh Freckle Pony, thank you so much for that super chat as well.

[00:22:46]Uh we're all too hard on poor Nigel.

[00:22:50]He actually won his house um uh with Omaze. The the the ticket cost 5 million pounds.

[00:22:57]>> [laughter] >> Yes.

[00:23:01]Poor guy. Yeah, you know, leave him I think it was Isabel Oakshott was talking about how, you know, he he works so hard. He's dedicated 25 years of his life to achieving Brexit. You know, he deserves a bit of a break. He deserves, you know, to be left alone.

[00:23:14]Problem is that he, you know, none of these things are All of these responses from his supporters are like, you know, he deserves this money or he um you know, he needed it for security. But all he had to do was declare it. Why didn't he declare it? The problem is that he didn't declare it, not that he received it. I think there's a big problem with him receiving it, but Um the Greens cannot win the general election. Labour still remains the only hope in destroying the fascists.

[00:23:43]When it comes to the Gorton and Denton Sorry, when it comes to the uh the by-election, it doesn't seem to be the case that the Greens have a chance. This is a a This is a seat that voted Brexit in 2016. Um it's traditional Labour vote uh voting constituency as well. So, it's unlikely it's highly unlikely that the Greens would win there.

[00:24:06]It's not like Gorton and Denton, which is split. You know, we had Gorton leaning one way and and Denton the other.

[00:24:12]Um Makerfield is is working class um pro-Brexit generally, but they're willing to vote for Andy Burnham over the Greens.

[00:24:23]Now, the Greens have no chance no chance the Greens would win in Makerfield.

[00:24:28]>> [snorts] >> It doesn't have the doesn't have the demographic.

[00:24:32]He works so hard. What? Says the woman who fled Britain in tear for fear of Sharia law only to move to Dubai.

[00:24:40]>> [laughter] >> Uh they're not very consistent, are they? So, this is the candidate uh We will I think we're going to see a lot of vetting going on, you know, post post-selection vetting. Anyway, let's move on to So, what about Starmer? We've forgotten about Keir Starmer in all of this. So, let's jump out of this um by-election bit and jump into what what's happening with Keir Starmer.

[00:25:05]>> We've got some exclusive polling that shows one candidate for PM is dead in the water. Let me show you. If there's a contest, this is the first choice of Labour members who get to decide. And you can see 31% want Keir Starmer to stay, but the biggest number, 47%, want Andy Burnham to become Prime Minister Labour leader. 8% for Angela Rayner and just 4% for Wes Streeting. What if there's a head-to-head? Well, look at this. If Keir Starmer goes up against Andy Burnham, then 37% wants the Prime Minister to stay and 59% want Andy Burnham. So, he wins.

[00:25:43]Yeah, that's not a huge surprise. Okay.

[00:25:45]>> [laughter] >> You know, we all believe that Andy Burnham would be much more popular than Keir Starmer.

[00:25:52]Uh limpets have nothing on Starmer.

[00:25:55]>> [laughter] >> He's running for a seat in or for the needs of the locals.

[00:26:01]That's an interesting question. Yeah, and that's a legitimate question. Is Andy Burnham running for the locals? Not really. You know, it the the campaign will be about local issues, but of obviously he's not running to be the local MP. He's running to be leader of the Labour Party. And look, I think people people know know that. You know, I don't think many people are vote going to vote for Andy Burnham because they expect him to be their MP. Um of course, he'll have to work as an MP for the constituency, you know, in the same way as the Prime Minister has to also keep an eye on his constituency, but if he's going to be um the leader of the Labour Party, realistic odds.

[00:26:40]Yeah, this is for within the Labour Party.

[00:26:42]>> contest. But what if it's Wes Streeting versus Andy Burnham? Well, look at this.

[00:26:47]Decisive. Wes Streeting [laughter] gets 10% of Labour members.

[00:26:51]80% So, West Streeting is less popular than Keir Starmer, okay.

[00:26:58]>> [laughter] [gasps] >> Um Sam Coates has been uh creaming his knickers since [laughter] last Thursday.

[00:27:06]Um Sam uh Sam Coates is uh He has He has yet to apologize for that. Remember that uh clip that I that I posted on the on the channel.

[00:27:15]Um that's a no-brainer. Dodgy Dodgy Star Streeter, dodgy Burnham.

[00:27:20]Burnham has been mayor for nearly 10 years, so he has already done a lot of uh a lot locally, yes.

[00:27:26]Pan- Palantir wears.

[00:27:28]>> [laughter] >> Must be the the Peter love affair, maybe, yes. Andy Burnham gets 80% absolute landslide. Labour members, however, do want a change before the next election. Look at this, just 28% want Keir Starmer to fight the next election, as he was saying this week.

[00:27:49]Who are these Who are these 12 a 20 percent? 20% want Keir Starmer to fight the the next election.

[00:27:57]Like I understand people don't want him to leave because they don't want the chaos, but is it like Is that the argument?

[00:28:04]Look, we don't like Starmer, but it's best to stick with him.

[00:28:06]>> Whereas 33% want him to stand down at sometime, and 33% want him to stand down now or in the next few months. But what about the public, and who do they want to win the by-election in Makerfield?

[00:28:19]Well, 29% want Andy Burnham, 21% want the Reform candidate, 10% Green, 6% Tory, and 5% Lib Dem. But what if you just ask northern voters who have a particular affinity for Andy Burnham?

[00:28:33]Well, then 37% want Andy Burnham to win that by-election against just 20 W- Why What's the Like why would you bother asking people in the north of England as opposed to asking people in the constitu- Like asking people in the constituency makes more sense than just asking people in the north of England.

[00:28:49]Cuz the people in the north of England are not going to be voting. It's the people in the constituency that'll be voting. So, that's a good figure for Andy Burnham. Um look, actually, let me just go back a little bit cuz I don't know if is Restore Britain there? Cuz Restore Britain also have put forward a candidate. Uh you know, Rupert Lowe's party. They've also put forward their candidate who doesn't seem all that great.

[00:29:14]Um they're predicting that she's going to win. I don't think she's going to win.

[00:29:18]And of course, Reform are believe that their candidate is going to win.

[00:29:24]I don't know if that's the case. Um you know, a week is a long time in politics. Six weeks is an eternity. So, there's still a chance that something will happen to Andy Burnham or something will happen with the Reform UK candidate. But, it seems that Reform UK are taking a bit of a risk because they're putting forward somebody who's local but doesn't have a lot of name recognition.

[00:29:46]And they're probably hoping that people will voters will come out and back Reform not knowing who the guy is. They'll go, "Well, you know, we'll just vote for Reform. We don't care who's on the ticket." So, maybe that's what they're hoping for. Of course, they're going to promote GB News, their political their propaganda wing of their propaganda wing of GB of Reform UK will promote the hell out of this guy.

[00:30:09]He'll be doing lots of softball interviews, you know, asking about, you know, are you are you a perfect example of alarm clock Britain?

[00:30:17]>> [laughter] >> The the the line that they go with. You You know, you're a real plumber. You're not a fake plumber like uh the Green Party MP. And you're uh you know, they're going to do a lot of promotion of this guy on GB News, of course.

[00:30:32]Um is it going to work? I don't know.

[00:30:36]If Reform win, then Labour are finished.

[00:30:38]Yeah, so so um Reginald leave it introduces a an interesting problem. So, if Reform UK let's see the different scenarios. Let's say if Labour win Andy Burnham wins this um Labour he's he's on a on a pretty simple track to become a leader of the Labour Party. If Labour lose this seat to Reform and it's likely to go to Reform not anyone else.

[00:31:07]This will be detrimental for both Andy Burnham because he'd be presenting himself as look I can't actually defeat Reform UK. If I can't defeat Reform UK, nobody can.

[00:31:19]So, this in a sense could help Keir Starmer because he'd be saying look it's better to stick with me you know, better the devil you know than taking the risk with somebody like um uh Andy Burnham.

[00:31:35]If if Reform UK just barely win um I don't think it'd make that much difference, but if they do win this would be yeah, it'd be curtains for Andy Burnham's career and this would be you know, it would create chaos within the Labour Party because if Andy Burnham can't beat him, nobody else can can beat Reform. So I don't think that's going to happen although I don't want to test fate >> [laughter] >> attempt fate, but I unless things dramatically change, it's looking more and more likely that Andy He has the star power that the other guy doesn't have. He has a a long track record of working in Manchester. The other guy doesn't have this track record. Um and he's popular with people who would generally vote for Reform. People who are angry with the Labour Party. So, if he can present himself as an alternative then I think he you know, this is his to lose. You know, he's he's in a very strong position so he shouldn't lose this. But if he does, it will be a massive upset and um you know, Reform UK would be in a very, very strong position then to to march into number 10. That would be it, because if they would show that they have the momentum to uh to, you know, to destroy the Labour Party.

[00:32:56]Uh I I don't think that's going to happen at the moment.

[00:32:59]But anything could happen. And of course, as I mentioned in another video, if Restore Britain do well, of course they're going to take votes away from Reform, and that would really upset It'd be interesting to see a situation where Labour [snorts] won like won by about 1,000 votes, and Restore Britain got like 1,000 votes.

[00:33:20]>> [laughter] >> Um Rupert Lowe would be not very popular person at that stage.

[00:33:26]Would the almighty Greens stand down?

[00:33:28]No, I don't think they're going to stand down.

[00:33:31]Uh they may not campaign. That's a different thing.

[00:33:39]Uh Reginald E. says not yet, Sir Larry.

[00:33:43]But the Monster Raving Loony Party is taking this seriously, as their party leader and co-founder is standing.

[00:33:51]The best of luck to him. Uh the Monster Raving Loony Party beat Ben Habib's party at the last by-election, so >> [snorts] >> Is Reform UK candidate the the third Mario Bros?

[00:34:04]>> [laughter] >> Something like that.

[00:34:06]Uh I don't think Burnham is going to win because uh of the spirit of Brexit.

[00:34:11]I disagree. Um Brexit is not really it's not really a vote on Brexit. It's more an anti-incumbent vote. So see, Reform have done really The reason why I think Andy Burnham has a massive advantage and I could be wrong on this, but I think he has a massive massive advantage because he's tapping into the anti-incumbent vote, which was really strong at the local elections. So, why were people voting against the Labour Party in Wales? Cuz they're not happy with the Labour Party. They're not in They're not happy with the incumbent. Why were people voting against the Labour Party in England? Because they were not happy with the incumbent. So, they voted for the Greens and they voted for Reform.

[00:34:51]So, Andy Burnham represents the anti-establishment, the anti-incumbent.

[00:34:57]So, I think he should do well.

[00:35:00]So, I You know, he I'm not I'm not saying that he will do well, but he should do well. He should be able to walk this.

[00:35:08]You know, unless he messes up dramatically, I don't see him losing it.

[00:35:14]Because once again, he he's able to appeal to people who would normally vote for Reform UK. I'm not talking about the racist and bigots. I'm talking about people who are angry with the status quo.

[00:35:26]Restore Britain have higher uh odds than the Green Party for the seat, according to Sky Bet. It's I'd be very I'd be very skeptical of betting websites. They have been proven to be wrong before. But a lot of it is gaming, so it's You know, people who are enthusiastic about Restore will will bet that they will win to boost the numbers.

[00:35:49]Um so, I don't know how accurate or it is as a tool to predict the election. Sometimes it's right, but sometimes it's also wrong.

[00:36:00]Who's replacing Burnham as mayor? It has been rumored uh Gary Neville might replace Andy Burnham as mayor. And I think he'd be quite popular. I don't know how good he'd be, but I think he'd be quite popular um with people in Manchester.

[00:36:17]Anyway, guys, let's move on to um the campaign. So, how's it going to pan out?

[00:36:23]Of the candidates now declared for the Makerfield by-election, both Labour and Reform are vying for the local approachable bloke mantle.

[00:36:33]I was born in Liverpool, but my journey began [music] in this area. The Makerfield constituency deserves a local champion.

[00:36:41]Both issued campaign videos walking the patch and competing on who had the best links to the constituency. So, I went into politics to fight [music] for ordinary people. They might know Westminster, but they don't know the area or the people, you know.

[00:36:57]Look, let me let me be very frank. The Reform candidate's position, like a local guy, a working-class guy, it seems, a guy who runs a small a small business or used to run a small business. This is very appealing to a lot of people. You know, I've said before that they should Reform should have put forward somebody from the local area. They should have gone with a candidate from uh Gorton and Denton, somebody from Manchester, but instead they went with, of course, um Match Chi-Chi P.

[00:37:29]>> [laughter] >> And it didn't work out well for them because he was parachuted in. So, I thought that they might do the same again, but instead they went with the local guy, but as I've talked before, there are some problems with him.

[00:37:40]Both go very, very strong on the message, I am a local, I am an outsider, I am from round here, I am not like politics as usual. So, that tells you something about our kind of anti-political times. Make that voice heard on June the 18th.

[00:37:58]Quite Tim.

[00:37:59]Quite similar.

[00:38:00]>> Oh my goodness, why are they interviewing this guy?

[00:38:03]Why the hell are they interviewing this guy?

[00:38:07]This guy is, of course, Maurice Glasman from Blue Labour.

[00:38:11]You know, somebody who who despises the working class, who pretends to care about the working class, but he he he just despises the working class, and he despises immigrants as well. Only.

[00:38:24]What does that tell us about our politics?

[00:38:26]Ideological void in the politics. Um Things are ready It's a new era.

[00:38:35]It's a very consequential moment in politics.

[00:38:38]It will decide whether Labour and the old two-party system can still hang on. Five months after Labour's National Executive Committee, led by Keir Starmer, told Andy Burnham he wasn't allowed to run for Parliament in a by-election, a weakened Prime Minister and a rebellious party put Andy Burnham on a short list of one for the constituency association to choose from.

[00:39:03]The stakes for the I mean, the Reform guy grew up in the area. No, no, no, I agree. Um and it's a good a good choice to go with a local guy, because that's what you want. If you parachuted in somebody from London or from the southeast, it would it would it go down like a bucket of sick. So, it was the right It was a good idea for Reform to select somebody from the area, but as I've [laughter] said, he has a few issues.

[00:39:27]The Makerfield by-election, expected in a few weeks' time, could not be higher.

[00:39:32]I love Andy Burnham. I think he's a great guy. Um I think he's very local.

[00:39:35]He's a great man.

[00:39:37]Be great for Ashton if people just realized.

[00:39:39]>> I'm sure Andy Burnham is only using notes as a stepping stone anyway. He don't care about Makerfield. He's not local.

[00:39:49]Um So, wait. Sorry. What? [laughter] Andy Burnham's not local?

[00:39:54]Like, okay. He doesn't live on the street, >> [laughter] >> but bloody hell. And um he just wants You know, these are the same people who vote for probably Nigel Farage and well, you know, Nigel uh Nigel's not from Clacton, okay?

[00:40:08]At least Andy Burnham is from the area.

[00:40:11]And he's been the mayor, so he knows the area. It's not like he's just somebody who just popped out into it popped into existence from the area. He has experience of the area and he has a good track record. To get into number 10?

[00:40:25]I just worry for my grandchildren what's going to happen to the country if Reform get in.

[00:40:31]That's my worry. We had money taken from the workers to the shirkers. That's what Labour represents for the Oh, my goodness.

[00:40:41]>> [snorts and clears throat] >> Most of the welfare bill goes on pensions.

[00:40:46]I'm well about half of it. It sometimes it depends on the the figures you look at, but it's about half. Half of the welfare bill goes on pensions.

[00:40:55]Would she be happy with her pension being cut? I don't think so. decades.

[00:41:00]Keir Starmer is this evening hosting a reception in Downing Street to mark the passing of the Renters' Rights Act banning no-fault evictions. The Prime Minister occasionally sounding like he might be trying to spur himself on in dark times.

[00:41:14]>> As a government, um you know, you can do >> So, who's this guy again?

[00:41:18]>> [laughter] >> Completely forgotten about Keir Starmer.

[00:41:21]two uh two or three things when you're facing uncertain times like this. You can um take a defensive crouch, put your head in the sand and do nothing about it. Wrong response. Or you can say we must use this moment. I'm a plumber, gas engineer.

[00:41:34]>> Reform's Robert Kenyon is refighting a seat he challenged for in the general election. Some locals say he's been unrelentingly on the doorsteps ever since. Those that loves the gamble >> Well, this is the one my bet really.

[00:41:46]There's no downside. If he loses, he can say I've lost the Labour's most effective electoral performer. Hands up, you know, the guy's done a good job in Greater Manchester. People clearly like him, you know, we we finished second best. We move on. If he wins though, it is a haymaker uh that would put the Labour Party on the canvas. And you know, so no wonder they're running around And and he's right. If if Reform win this, it's an absolute disaster for the Labour Party.

[00:42:13]Catastrophic.

[00:42:16]Any news on Yvette Cooper? I think she's abroad, actually.

[00:42:21]Is Farage like the wicker man?

[00:42:24]>> [laughter] >> Uh if so Uh can Andy Burnham uh not certain, but uh sure for long long horn could uh his success could could learn him.

[00:42:37]>> [laughter] [gasps] >> Um same same again same question. Uh why would Burnham win?

[00:42:45]What is his campaign focusing on?

[00:42:48]What is his What is his campaign focusing on? His successes? I I don't know what his campaign He he's just launched the campaign, so I haven't seen what the the campaign is generally about, you know, working what I've done for our for ordinary people, what I want to do if I get uh if I get elected. Uh not exactly sure. I haven't seen all of the I haven't seen all of the videos, so uh I will watch the video and find out exactly what he's talking about, but I think his campaign is basically yeah, vote for me cuz I'm I'm a local guy. Uh look at what I've done for Manchester, and I want to replicate that in Westminster.

[00:43:27]very very very hard here because they could achieve something extraordinary, but even if they don't, they've got a ready-made story about why it doesn't really tell us anything about Reform's appeal more generally.

[00:43:37]Number 10 allies dismissed the by-election as unnecessary.

[00:43:42]No one disputes it's of huge consequence.

[00:43:47]>> [laughter] [gasps] >> Well, he can't say he's a uh Sorry, what was it? I can't be getting much plumbing done there.

[00:43:53]>> [laughter] >> Um he posted some about 6 months ago he posted uh stuff on his website. His His website was uh posting reviews, and one of the reviews was, it seems, from his mother.

[00:44:04]>> [laughter] >> It said, "He's a great plumber."

[00:44:06]Well, Reform Britain and the Monster Raving Loony Party have also announced candidates for the Wakefield constituency, and other parties are expected to announce before nominations close.

[00:44:18]Well, earlier I Uh but Andy Burnham is a is a remainer. Could that hurt him? I I I don't think so. I don't think remainer or Brexit is going to be on the is is going to be something that people are concerned about during the by-election.

[00:44:31]I don't think it's going to bring is going to come up much. Some people will try and bring it up, especially Brexit supporters. They say, "Hey, Andy Burnham, you know, is a remainer. He wants to rejoin the European Union." I don't think that's going to get a lot of traction because it would be about, "Okay, do we want Keir Starmer to remain in the position? Do we want uh a re- you know, do we want the Labour Party to go in a different direction?

[00:44:53]Is there a way for Labour to get back to its roots? Can Andy Burnham achieve that? I think that will be It will be about, "Let's give Andy Burnham a chance." I think that's what um a lot of Labour voters will be doing.

[00:45:04]They'll be saying, "Look, let's give him a chance. Give him a go. Keir Starmer has failed. Uh let's try with somebody else."

[00:45:12]When it comes to Brexit, see, the thing about Brexit is if you talk about it in leave areas, it's going to harm you.

[00:45:20]I've said, you know, what you should be doing is talking about well, how Brexit has failed because people, you know, if I was in a if I was in a leave area, and people were asking me about Brexit, I'd be saying, "Well, you know, what did people vote for in 2016? They voted for less immigration. And what's happened?

[00:45:36]Immigration has gone up because of Brexit.

[00:45:39]People voted to be richer.

[00:45:41]What's happened? They're poorer because of Brexit. So, these people voted for Brexit, but Brexit didn't deliver anything. Didn't deliver anything positive for them.

[00:45:51]So, maybe we should consider rejoining the European Union. That's what they That's the narrative I would be pushing, but I understand I'm not running for to be an MP. So, there's no advantage in talking about Brexit in the by-election.

[00:46:06]That's something you talk about maybe in the general election.

[00:46:09]So, the the by-election, if I were Andy Burnham's team, and I'm I'm not obviously going to be in a position to give advice. I think he's surrounded by much better people than I am.

[00:46:20]But, if I was giving a his party his team advice, I'd say just focus on local issues. Um you know, because that's what that's what some people will be voting for. That's what a lot of people will be wanting to hear. Okay, what are you going to do for Manchester if you're an MP?

[00:46:36]That's what people will want to hear.

[00:46:37]Most people know this is about replacing Keir Starmer.

[00:46:41]But, the campaign has to be about uh what you're going to do.

[00:46:47]And then if you're asked about, "Okay, do you want to be Prime Minister one day?" Yeah, well, of course.

[00:46:52]How will Burnham manage uh having to appeal to both the liberal and conservative wing of the party?

[00:47:01]>> [sighs and gasps] >> It's always going to be a problem for any Labour leader. Like here um you know, when it was Jeremy Corbyn, he struggled to he struggled with the the right of the party. Keir Starmer is now well, struggled with the left of the party and sort of told them, "Well, you know, there's the door if you're not happy." And a lot of people used the door.

[00:47:22]People rebelled and they were kicked out. They lost the whip. So, the Labour Party always has problems maintaining unity.

[00:47:30]Uh you need a strong leader. You need somebody who can appeal Look, I I I think when it comes to Labour MPs, to keep them on board, you need to listen to them. You need to listen to their concerns. Doesn't mean that you're going to implement everything they want.

[00:47:45]But, at least listen to them. And I think Keir Starmer has failed to do that.

[00:47:49]Thus, he's been listening more to people in number 10, his advisers, than he's been listening to MPs. And the MPs are the ones who have to go out on the doorstep and sell these policies or have to listen to uh the concerns of voters or they have to support their counselors.

[00:48:04]Um and the counselors, of course, have to sell these policies as well. And it's very difficult if you don't believe in them yourself.

[00:48:13]It's a problem with any party in um in balancing fractions. Yes, and this is a problem with first-past-the-post where you have massive parties who um are very broad churches because instead of having individual parties working together and forming a coalition, you end up with a huge party.

[00:48:30]Like, for example, the Conservatives, if you look at the Conservatives, you have the the the crazy wing and you have the more moderate wing. Um you know, the the One Nation Tories and then you have the Brexit supporters or the the far right within the Conservative Party. They shouldn't be together, but they have to be in order to maintain this coalition, otherwise they split into different parties. And I think that's what you're going to see if you have if you eventually have proportional representation.

[00:48:59]You're going to see the likes of the Labour Party split into something like a sort of Conservative Light or economically conservative, socially liberal party. You're going to see a more left-wing party.

[00:49:12]Um you know, the Greens may become a much bigger party. It would absorb uh people who are leaving the Labour Party, for example.

[00:49:21]But you would see more parties because there would be more choice for people to to vote more choice for people to vote for. Uh I'd like to say as little as possible about Brexit. People there won't take it well, however you address it. Um it has to be local issues, yes, plus top-down national change, uh renewal, however vague it is. Yes, it has to be You can't be talking about Brexit, especially as Brexit is not front and center on people's minds at the moment.

[00:49:50]What is front and center? Cost of living.

[00:49:53]The more The more you're talking, the less you're talking about cost of living, the bigger the problem is. So, you need to focus on issues like cost of living. What would I do if I was your MP? What would I do if I was Prime Minister?

[00:50:04]This is what you should be talking about.

[00:50:11]Um I think Reform will win the Wakefield by-election because the left will vote green.

[00:50:18]Damn you, David, because you're always right.

[00:50:20]>> [laughter] >> David McGinnis Um I just ask the moderators if a super chat comes in, please can you tell me because I'm looking at the multi-stream and it doesn't identify super chat. So, please tell me if a super chat comes in because I might miss it. Um But back to David McGinnis. Damn you, David, because you're always right.

[00:50:45]Uh you're right about Keir Starmer not leaving straight away. Uh you're saying he'd hang on and that's what he's doing.

[00:50:50]Uh because you know, we don't know what's going to happen with Andy Burnham. We We don't know what's going to happen with Wes Streeting. Wes Streeting did not um resign from the He didn't resign to call a general Sorry, to call a a leadership challenge. He just resigned from the party. So, they resigned from the the cabinet.

[00:51:10]Max, you are yet to yet to be wrong.

[00:51:13]>> [laughter] >> Thanks for that. Um I'm try I'm trying to remember what's the last thing I was wrong about. Um Uh actually, I thought Labour would win the the [clears throat] Gorton and Denton by-election. So, I was wrong on that. I actually thought that they would they would hold on to that seat. Um I was concerned about Reform.

[00:51:36]But I I actually thought that Labour would scrape by, but I was completely wrong there. The The Greens came first, and Reform came second, and the Labour came third. So, Uh Richard Murphy summed up uh Burnham in his video today. Just more tinkering around the edges and business as you will usual under different name. So my my only criticism of this is we don't know because it's very different being a mayor of a city and being an MP and being the leader of a party. I I think Look, let's be very clear. Andy Burnham will struggle. He'll have difficulties if he does replace Keir Starmer because it may be a poisoned chalice.

[00:52:16]He may think, "Okay, get Andy Burnham in there and we're going to be able to turn the ship around." I keep saying, "You The only way you're going to succeed is if you improve people's lives and you need to start putting in policies that improve people's lives."

[00:52:28]If Andy Burnham is able to do that, if he's able to improve people's lives, then he will be uh he can go to a a general election and win.

[00:52:38]He can do that. I could guarantee that he would win if people's if people feel their lives have got better.

[00:52:45]But can he do that?

[00:52:47]You know, is he going to bow down to the markets? Is he going to maintain the fiscal rules? He's said that he's going to do these things.

[00:52:57]But would he do that? You know, one thing is to say, "Look, I'm going to play it safe and then be radical." He would need to be radical. The thing is I think he's been somewhat radical when it comes to being mayor of Manchester, but being mayor of Greater Manchester is different from being prime minister.

[00:53:13]So it maybe it's easier to be a bit more radical when you're mayor because you have much more power and you don't have a political party telling you what to do. You don't have to keep an eye on your backbenchers all the time. So being a mayor is very different.

[00:53:29]So I would be I'm hopeful that he would bring some of that independence that um social looking after, you know, the vulnerable in society, you know, a more left-wing approach. I I would hope that he would bring that, but I could be wrong, of course.

[00:53:49]Always remember what Max Headroom said.

[00:53:52]>> [laughter] >> Uh how can you tell when a politician lies? They move their lips. Yes, their lips move.

[00:54:02]I don't think Andy Burnham is ready to be Prime Minister. I don't think anyone is ready to be Prime Minister. Not to be uh uh not to be snarky. I don't mean it in a snarky way, but I I it it's you know, was Boris Johnson ready to be Prime >> [laughter] >> Minister?

[00:54:19]>> [gasps] >> Liz Truss, was she ready to be Prime Minister? So, Do Are they To be Prime Minister, you have to be able to hurt people.

[00:54:32]You have to be able to lead people. And to lead people, you need to have a vision. So, Andy Burnham needs to have a vision. If he says, "Look, MPs, you may not agree with me. You may not may not like me.

[00:54:42]Um you may not uh be on board with everything I want to do, but this is my vision. This is what I want to achieve. Come with me, and we can achieve great things. And you can go back to your constituency, and you say, "Look at what we have done for you.

[00:54:56]Look at how your life has got got better."

[00:54:58]Isn't that better than, you know, saying, "Look, I didn't vote against um this, or I voted against that, or I supported you that" No.

[00:55:08]Liz Truss just needed more time.

[00:55:11]>> [laughter] >> Trust me.

[00:55:13]>> [gasps] >> The Reform candidate who only registered his company as a plumber in February, um but has a long history of far-right activism with the BNP, Britain First, and the New British Legion, successor to Mosley's British Union of Fascists.

[00:55:27]Not surprised there.

[00:55:29]He slipped through the vetting process, didn't he?

[00:55:32]Anyway, uh >> [laughter] >> I want to show you that this is hilarious.

[00:55:39]So, this weekend there was the Unite the Kingdom March.

[00:55:43]>> [laughter] >> And I want to show you So, there was I I don't worry, I'm not going to show you the clip of the people singing.

[00:55:52]You know, if you thought I was bad, >> [laughter] >> you should have heard these people. I'm not going to play it, okay? Because, you know, I have respect for you guys, okay?

[00:56:02]>> [laughter] >> I'm not going to punish you. You know, I've shown you clips of, you know, of Nigel Farage, you know, after Nigel Farage, after Nigel Farage on this channel before. So, you know, you've you've taken enough punishment.

[00:56:14]>> [laughter] >> Not going to give you any more of that.

[00:56:16]But, I want to show you this clip where one of the guys who was singing >> [laughter] >> uh was complaining that it was all AI, that, you know, it was it was all fake.

[00:56:27]This is hilarious. You know, instead of just saying, "Look, you know, we I had a bad day.

[00:56:32]I was, you know, tired or, you know, I I tried my best and it didn't work." No, no, he's blaming Listen to this.

[00:56:39]And of course, like I said, we're going to get into the deep fake thing, right?

[00:56:43]So, it's definitely 100% I know the style. It's Ethno Nationalists. And what they did is they deep faked a couple of clips uh of us singing from the live stream and they put it through AI and they basically changed my voice to be out of tune, all right?

[00:57:02]>> [laughter] >> And then they published it and it went viral. And I mean super viral. So, right now there's hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of people watching these clips and thinking that's actually how we sang.

[00:57:18]>> [laughter] >> It's [gasps] What they did was Ethno Nationalists were taking the clips and um distorting the voice and putting it out.

[00:57:28]Like, so, why is it that we only have those clips and we don't have the original. You know, surely you had somebody on the day filming you. You couldn't put those clips out instead?

[00:57:38]>> [laughter] >> And when it came to Tommy Robinson, there was this a clip of him on stage going Stop it. Stop it. Stop it. Stop it.

[00:57:46]>> [laughter] >> And they're like, "Ah, okay. We'll we'll stop singing." And they realized, "Okay, we've really messed up here."

[00:57:52]But like to blame it on deep fakes, just say, "Look, we had a bad day. We tried our best. You know, I'm not a I'm I'm not a professional singer, but my heart was in it. You know, maybe it didn't come across very well." Then people would have a bit more respect for you.

[00:58:06]But why did Why is it always somebody else's fault? It's like with Farage.

[00:58:11]Farage never takes responsibility for anything. It's always somebody else's fault. When it comes to the, you know, the 5 million pounds, "Oh, I was hacked."

[00:58:19]>> [laughter] [gasps] >> Oh my goodness. UK's next Eurovision entry.

[00:58:23]>> [laughter] >> If they want to do it like the, you know, the Father Ted one, put forward somebody so we don't win because it's expensive to host this bloody thing.

[00:58:31]>> [laughter] >> Um he looks like uh Ian Watkins. I'm not sure who Ian Watkins is. Max, show him uh how to sing. It's my birthday. [laughter] It's not your birthday. Don't be sly.

[00:58:44]Uh that's not fair.

[00:58:45]>> [laughter] [gasps] >> Um All I heard was the drums.

[00:58:51]>> [laughter] >> Oh my goodness.

[00:58:55]Uh Tiny Tom Tommy's mob are the ethno-nationalists. [snorts] Yes.

[00:59:01]Is it in tune? It's not in tune. It's definitely not in tune.

[00:59:04]>> [laughter] >> Look, I'll let you find the clip cuz I'm not going to punish you guys by uh by playing this clip, okay?

[00:59:11]Anyway, um Let's move on. Let's move on. Um So, about Brexit. Let's move on to to Brexit itself.

[00:59:28]Has Brexit really been catastrophic a catastrophic mistake for the UK? Here's what the data says. So, remember it was um Wes Streeting who came out recently and said Brexit was a catastrophic mistake and it would be better for the UK to one day rejoin the European Union. So, let's hear this report from Sky News. Wes Streeting says the UK should rejoin the European Union, that Brexit's been a catastrophic mistake and rejoining will rebuild our economy and trade. It's a political pitch based on an economic assumption. First question, have things got worse? The answer by most economists consensus is yes. Since the Brexit vote, there've been various independent assessments. All of them show Okay. So, from the OBR, minus 4% by 2035.

[01:00:11]So, that's not very good, is it? You know, [laughter] remember Brexit was supposed to make people richer. It's made them 4% made the economy 4% worse.

[01:00:18]>> showing a negative impact on GDP. The Office for Budget Responsibility says uh productivity would decline by 4% by 2035. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said GDP would decline 5% by 2030 and the US National Bureau of Economic Research by 6 to 8% by last year. So, how do things actually look today? Well, relatively good if you only look at the most recent data. GDP for the first quarter of this year makes us the fastest growing economy in the G7. Brexit is a claim this is proof that the doom mongering was well, just that. But take the timeline back though to pre-pandemic and GDP in the UK has underperformed the Eurozone. Now, disentangling Brexit from the massive economic shocks that followed the pandemic, then the Ukraine war, now Iran is You see, you see the problem with when it comes to the UK growth after the pandemic is the UK suffered much worse than other economies. So, then when it did recover, well, the recovery seemed a little bit higher. So, that of course Brexiteers will latch onto that and say, "Hey, our economy is doing is growing faster than You should not focus on growth. Focus on quality of life." I keep saying this. Growth figures are absolutely useless to most people.

[01:01:33]People look around and say, "Is my life getting better?"

[01:01:36]That's a better barometer.

[01:01:38]Um We have a super chat from Brad. I think it Thanks so much, Brad, once again. Uh if Trump didn't have his tailor, um uh he'd make Jabba the Hutt look like a beauty pageant queen.

[01:01:52]>> [laughter] >> It's all shoved inside, you know, straight with a with a rope to tie it around to keep it keep it all together.

[01:01:59]>> [laughter] >> Uh it's a corset he probably wears, as well.

[01:02:04]Thanks so much, [laughter] Brad.

[01:02:08]Jabba, you're a wonderful human being.

[01:02:10]>> [laughter] >> Anyway, It's hard. Would the UK have been immune from all of that had it still been in the EU? No. But were we more exposed because we chose to make a fundamental change to our most important economic relationship just before these generational challenges hit? Yes. Now, the EU was and remains our largest single trading partner. 41% of exports last year is Yeah, it is declining slightly. The US is our largest single country trading partner at 22%. Then comes China with a 3% slice, then scores of smaller relationships that make up the other third. Now, one of the claimed benefits of Brexit was the freedom to do trade deals with these countries. And there have been some with Australia, with New Zealand, Japan. Each of those though worth less than 0.1% of GDP.

[01:02:57]India Like less than 1. 0.1% of GDP.

[01:03:02]So, those trade deals are worth almost nothing.

[01:03:05]See, that's the thing, is that countries trade mainly with their neighbors. The United States trades mainly with Mexico and Canada.

[01:03:14]You know, China trades mainly mainly with its neighbors around the world and with the exception of of course the United States, but China's a a different example, a a particular example. But most countries trade mainly with their neighbors. It's been always the case.

[01:03:29]So but Brexiteers are like, "No, no, no, we need to forget about Europe." Like isn't it strange that, you know, most countries would never say, "Oh, we need to stop like United States generally with the exception of Trump.

[01:03:41]Okay, let's leave aside Trump. But the United States States would never say, we we're not going to trade with Canada cuz we don't like Canada.

[01:03:49]>> [laughter] >> We're going to trade with other countries. Like we're deciding not to trade with Canada. We don't want to trade with Canada." No, most countries are like, "Yeah, we want to trade with our neighbors and we want to trade with other countries around the world." But when it comes to Brexiteers, it's like, "We don't want to trade with Europe.

[01:04:05]We want to reduce our trade with Europe." Why? Because we don't like Europe. It's like that's the only justification they have. It's only motivation. We don't like Europe.

[01:04:13]Europe's in decline. But but that's not a reason not to Like if an economy is in decline, it's not okay, we'll stop trading with them. No, you continue trading where you can because it's beneficial to your economy. It's nonsensical. Like no other country in the world would say, "We're going to stop trading with our neighbor because we don't like them." Yeah, a little more than that. Every little helps, but none of those are game-changing. The great prize for leavers was a deal with the United States, but that's not happened since Donald Trump's second term.

[01:04:46]Barriers have gone up for trade, not down. The last year kiss >> Exactly. When it comes to Donald Trump, remember they were saying, "Oh, I think it was Jacob Rees-Mogg said Donald Trump would be great for the United Kingdom.

[01:04:56]We need to make sure that Donald Trump becomes president because he would be he would support the United Kingdom."

[01:05:03]I'm a did do a narrow deal on beef, ethanol, steel, cars, and pharmaceuticals, but it's not legally binding, so it's subject to the president's whim. The Prime Minister now does want to move closer to the EU. The King's speech includes a bill to increase food and drink trade by removing checks and accepting some EU standards. Now, immigration loomed large in the Brexit debate a decade ago with promises it would decline. This is what actually happened. EU migration, the red line, did go down, but non-EU numbers soared. A huge wave of legal migration now declined, but the issue is much bigger politically. Is there anything there that's beneficial as a result of Brexit?

[01:05:43]Now, this is the This is the the real figure here. Now, of course, the caveat has to be added that a lot of immigration came in, as you can see, around the same time as the UK left the single market and at the same time as the the pandemic happened.

[01:05:58]So, a lot of immigration dropped off around the time of the the pandemic cuz people couldn't move. And then it was there was pent-up demand, and then a huge number came in after that. But even even if you're to eliminate the pandemic, you can see the figures for non-EU countries are still higher than EU, even when they even before the referendum.

[01:06:23]Wasn't that Wasn't Brexit supposed to be about leaving the European Union to reduce immigration?

[01:06:28]This is a graph you should show to Brexit supporters.

[01:06:32]now than it was then. It is highly unlikely the EU will hand us the same terms when we rejoin that we had when we left, and freedom of movement is likely to be non-negotiable.

[01:06:41]The situ- See, this is the only fly in the ointment when it comes to the idea of rejoining the European Union. People think, "Okay, if we rejoin the European Union, it'll be like before." It will not be like before. The European Union has moved on. The European Union today is very different to the one in 2016.

[01:06:59]Um I want, you know, I'm a huge advocate for the UK rejoining the European Union, but there will be it will not be like before.

[01:07:08]And this may be a difficult sell because there's no advantage to the EU saying, "Oh, we'll just welcome the UK in and give them whatever they want." You know, in order to keep Brexiteers happy. No, that's not how it works.

[01:07:20]The EU has its rules.

[01:07:22]Some of the rules have changed since 2016, but a lot of them have remained the same. But, if the UK wants to be part of the One of the things that you generally don't hear is from the EU side, the country has to be enthusiastically pro-European. The country has to be pro-European. So, I think most people in Britain are pro-European. The politicians are not.

[01:07:44]The politicians are very quiet when they talk about being Europe European or pro-European. And that's a massive stumbling block.

[01:07:53]There has to be consensus in Parliament that yes, being part of Europe is a positive thing. We want to be part of that.

[01:08:01]You know, something And I thought this was very strange or maybe not so strange. When Tony Blair, I remember when Tony Blair was Prime Minister and Gordon Brown was Prime Minister and even David Cameron was Prime Minister.

[01:08:15]Very seldom you saw a European flag during a meeting. If you look at European countries, whenever Macron is speaking, whenever even Meloni is speaking, the Prime Minister of Italy, any of these people, you can see how they they have the national flag and the European flag together.

[01:08:35]When the UK was a member of the European Union, I rarely saw that.

[01:08:40]Um I'm actually missing super chat from Brad. Uh he'd make out with the hot No, I read that one out. Thanks for that.

[01:08:47]>> [laughter] >> Um Donald Trump has a Would Donald Trump be harassed by If Donald Trump was a a beauty in a beauty pageant, would he be harassed by other types of individuals like the way he sort of harassed girls when he was when they were taking part?

[01:09:09]And as far as Ireland is concerned, uh less than 9% of Irish exports go to GB, whereas that figure was over 80% when I was in short trousers.

[01:09:19]Well, that was a long time ago, Charles.

[01:09:21]>> [laughter] >> No, I don't want to give away your age, but yeah, it's declined a huge amount.

[01:09:26]Um but Ireland has relied more on exports to the continent instead, hasn't it?

[01:09:32]Farage will never rejoin even um if it was economic collapse for Britain's economy.

[01:09:38]I don't know. This is Nigel Farage is somebody who is a grifter. Nigel Farage will go whatever way the wind is blowing, and I wouldn't be surprised like let me say it. I don't expect it. It'd be highly unlikely, but it's not impossible for Nigel Farage to support rejoining the European Union if it benefited him.

[01:09:57]He would support it.

[01:09:58]>> [snorts] >> Nigel Farage, you know, was taking money from um renewable energy companies, okay? He was promoting renewable energy companies not that long ago because they gave him money. So, if Nigel if it was beneficial for Nigel Farage economically to support rejoin the European, I think he'd do it.

[01:10:16]He He doesn't He's not somebody who has any principles, okay?

[01:10:20]Like he's taking huge amounts of money from crypto billionaires.

[01:10:24]Does anyone honestly think that he has principles?

[01:10:27]None. None whatsoever. So, guys, we're almost at the end of the stream, so I want to say thank you so much to everyone who came on. Thank you so much for your super chats. Thank you so much for uh your support and your and your patience with me because of all the messing about with these live streams. I probably I'm going to sort it out before the next one, I promise. Um so, I will see you on Friday, same bat time, same bat channel. Uh no press conference.

[01:10:51]National Front is missing in action.

[01:10:55]Nigel Farage Sorry, not National Front is Na- Nigel Farage is missing in action, yes.

[01:11:01]>> [laughter] >> That's a slip of the tongue there.

[01:11:04]>> [gasps] >> Um, so before we go, we have our one for the road, so hope you enjoy this before we go. It's a it's a funny one, I hope you enjoy it. I did.

[01:11:12]Colin from Portsmouth is No, that's not the one I wanted.

[01:11:16]Ah.

[01:11:21]No. No, no, wait.

[01:11:25]Uh.

[01:11:26]Bear with me.

[01:11:40]Please bear with me. I I promise this is good.

[01:11:44]Uh.

[01:12:12]Things are not working out for me tonight.

[01:12:14]The live stream and then uh And let me see. Let me see.

[01:12:36]What was that? Hm?

[01:12:44]Okay, here we go.

[01:12:48]What was that? Hm? Yeah, you made a noise when you sat down. This couch has no lumbar support.

[01:12:53]>> What? No.

[01:12:54]>> [sighs and gasps] >> No no no what?

[01:12:56]>> What? You Did you just say no for no reason whatsoever?

[01:13:00]>> So, where are we heading? Oh, here. We we we're just heading to the pub for a pint, you know.

[01:13:03]>> Oh, smashing.

[01:13:04]>> Yes. Smashing.

[01:13:05]>> It's almost 12:30.

[01:13:06]>> When did you start wearing your watch upside down? What's that?

[01:13:09]It's in case there's no seats in the beer garden. Uh Good morning.

[01:13:14]>> Good afternoon. Oh. He's been like this since he got here. I I I don't know what's happening.

[01:13:18]>> I've read about this. I think I think he might be old.

[01:13:22]>> Gavin, would you like to own your own castle?

[01:13:25]>> No.

[01:13:26]>> Why not?

[01:13:26]>> It'd be impossible to heat.

[01:13:28]>> Oh. He is old.

[01:13:29]>> god, I am old. I knew it this morning when I got up and it was a brisk fresh day and I I I went for a walk.

[01:13:35]>> A walk? Where to where? I just did a loop. A circle? Yeah.

[01:13:40]Worst part is I enjoyed it.

[01:13:42]How do I fix this?

[01:13:43]>> You can't stop us.

[01:13:44]>> Let's just go to the pub.

[01:13:45]>> You're not bringing THE CHAIR.

[01:13:46]>> OKAY.

[01:13:49]>> [laughter and gasps] >> OH, MY GOODNESS. I felt I feel old from time to time as well. So, guys, have a have a great week. I will see you on Friday same bat time, same bat channel.

[01:13:57]Stay safe, take care, and I promise on Friday there will be a proper live stream.

[01:14:05]>> [snorts]