Donald Trump tightens grip on Republican Party with Massie defeat | The World | ABC NEWS

追加: 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]The primaries have begun in several US states where Democratic and Republican candidates are vying for selection ahead of November's midterm elections. Now, these primaries are shaping up to be a key test for US President Donald Trump and his second term in office. But how important are some of these races on a national scale? Dr. Catherine Robinson is a lecturer in American studies from the US Studies Centre and joins me now.

[00:00:25]Catherine, good to have you with us today. Let's go to Kentucky first because it's quite the win for the Trump-backed nominee at Gallant Reign who unseated Thomas Massie, a vocal Republican critic of the US president.

[00:00:39]So, can this particular contest be seen as as a big win for Trump and you know, the mega movement more broadly?

[00:00:46]Certainly, and thanks for having me, Girish. This was a a big win for loyalty test. So, Trump really focused on trying to unseat Massie. He was quite upset.

[00:00:57]Sort of the the figurehead of as Trump calls them the RINOs, the Republicans in name only. So, this really demonstrated that Trump has excellent control of his base. Yeah, so well, sticking to Kentucky because then we saw Congressman Andy Barr endorsed by Trump to replace Mitch McConnell in the Senate. So, what does this tell us about Donald Trump's influence and grip of the GOP heading towards the midterms?

[00:01:25]I think Barr is an interesting example because he was a hand-picked candidate by Trump. And in fact, Trump influenced his opponent to it was an Elon Musk-backed opponent to to leave the race and then he easily won over the third primary challenger. So, this really again shows that Trump has an excellent control over the GOP and it's just as tight as it's been since 2016.

[00:01:48]Whether that translates nationally is a bigger and unanswered question. So, let's have a look at the other side.

[00:01:53]Let's look at the Democrats cuz As seeing, you know, a a multitude of different candidates winning. You know, you've got progressives like Chris Rabb winning the safe, you know, blue districts in Philadelphia. You've got a blue-collar worker Bob Brooks winning the nomination in Pennsylvania. A former mayor Keisha Bottoms winning in Atlanta.

[00:02:11]What do those results tell us about what Democrat voters are looking for?

[00:02:17]Well, I think it's really interesting because Democrats really understand that they need to appeal to that working-class voters so that that win by Bob Brooks is interesting, especially because he is a firefighter.

[00:02:29]He doesn't have a college degree. He was endorsed by a union. He He himself is a is a former union leader and he was endorsed by Bernie Sanders, but also more working-class Democrats. So, I think he's an interesting representation sort of the Democrats' attempt to have an answer to MAGA.

[00:02:45]I don't know that any of these these wins demonstrate that Democrats have gotten a solid overall strategy and national strategy for the elections in 2026. They are doing well. I think also there's an expectation that it's possible Ken Paxton might win in Texas and and the Democrats would see see that as a gift to them because they they see Paxton as a candidate that James Talarico Well, Paxton did win, but a candidate that James Talarico could possibly beat in in 2026, which could give them control of the Senate. So, I think for the Democrats, we we are seeing good signs, but they're not as strong as they have perhaps been in other elections. Really, if you look at recent polling, Americans aren't happy with Trump right now, but they're also not necessarily happy with Democrats as well.

[00:03:41]And you know, Georgia was sort of an open primary. Can you tell us what that is and how does that differ from the other primaries? Sure. So, an open primary means that anyone can vote in the primary. So, you don't need to be a registered Republican to vote into a primary. And it also had a lot of people in it. Georgia also requires that primary winners get at least 50% of the vote. And so, if the primary winner does not get 50% of the vote, that means that a runoff election will occur. The particular runoff election in Georgia will happen on the 16th of June, and it will be between a Trump-backed candidate and a self-funded uh health millionaire who is involved in the race.

[00:04:21]What's interesting in Georgia is if you look at the turnout in in numbers, more Democrats voted uh showed up to vote in the primary election than Republicans did. Um in primaries in general are quite low turnout, which is why it's really um you know, political scientists, we don't suggest that you read too much into the tea leaves of primary elections because you get your most ardent supporters who show up and vote in those. So, you get sort of like your hardcore supporters.

[00:04:47]Not um we're talking about, you know, 20 to 30, maybe 40% um who show up. The The primary in Kentucky, for example, with Massie actually had quite a large uh turnout. The last one in 2024 had about 50,000 Republicans show up. This one had more than double that, around 105,000.

[00:05:05]Um so, that was a really great turnout.

[00:05:07]That was still only 30% of the registered uh Republican electorate. So, turnout is low in primaries. So, they really show you sort of where the hardcore members of of the base are, but not necessarily where the country and where Americans are. Um especially when you need independents to win national elections and and sometimes even state elections.

[00:05:29]So, on uh to the midterms itself, what are the crucial states and districts we should be looking at?

[00:05:36]I think Georgia is a great one to look at because Georgia's sort of becoming like Virginia. Virginia used to be a very solidly red state. It's now becoming a swing state. Georgia's becoming competitive. Texas is I don't know that this is going to be the election that tips Texas over into a swing state, but Texas has become increasingly more competitive over the last several elections. So, I think looking at that, Pennsylvania, of course, is always going to be competitive, Michigan, Wisconsin. So, you have your your typically competitive North Carolina maybe more competitive this term for for Senate. We have a very very popular former governor running on the Democratic side. So, that could be a really interesting race to watch.

[00:06:17]And and you know, the tendency is for voters to to support the party that is not in the White House. As far as the House of Reps is concerned, might that still be the case? And might Democrats take that for granted?

[00:06:32]I think Democrats do often take sort of what might happen for granted. We do see a bit more difficulty in having an overarching strategy. Democrats have more of a big tent party, which has a room for a lot of opinions, but that means there's also a room for a lot of directions. Whereas the GOP, even prior to Trump, was really good at sticking at a at a national message that all of their local and state and federal elections could come along to.

[00:06:56]So, I think that you have to really look at what's happening. And I think in terms of polling, watching what's happening with independents, where independents at when they are answering these polls. Are they supportive of the president's party as are they supportive of of In terms of midterms, every recent election with the election with the exception of the midterm after 9/11, you're going to see a bit of a wave or you're going to see a win for the the opposition party. So, Okay, Dr. Katherine Robinson, really appreciate your analysis on these primaries. Thank you so much. Thanks, Gerish.

[00:07:55]>> Mhm.