HOT INFLATION + $90 SILVER: The Market Just Broke The Old Rulebook (May 29 Coming)

Ajouté : 2026-05-14

[00:00:00]This is John, your OG Asian guy. Silver just crossed $90. As I record this on Wednesday, the COMEX spot price touched $90.02. The day high was $89.87.

[00:00:11]The week opened at $80.87.

[00:00:14]That is a $9 move in five sessions. But here is the thing. It should not have happened. Not today, not this week, not in this macro environment. And the fact that it did is one of the most important signals this market has given us in years. Because yesterday morning, the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April CPI report. And the number was bad. Not bad for silver, bad for everything that normally drives silver higher. Headline inflation came in at 3.8% year-over-year. Economists expected 3.7%. The previous reading was 3.3%. Core CPI came in at 2.8% annually and 0.4% for the month. Both beat expectations. On a headline monthly basis, prices rose 0.6%.

[00:00:56]The highest monthly reading since May 2023.

[00:01:00]Confirmed directly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics official release, CNBC, CNN, and Town Hall. The dollar immediately strengthened. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.46%.

[00:01:10]The NASDAQ closed down 0.87%. Gold fell under pressure from the stronger dollar.

[00:01:14]Every standard reaction to a hot CPI print played out exactly the way the textbooks say it should. And silver hit $90. That is the story of this video.

[00:01:23]Not $90 as a number, but what it means that silver hit $90 on the single worst macro day in the past 3 months for silver. Stay until the end. I am going to walk you through four things no other analyst is connecting right now. The broken CPI rule book, the PPI shocker that dropped this morning, the May 29th COMEX deadline that is 16 days away, and the Bank of America forecast that most mainstream media has not fully processed. When you understand all four together, $90 does not feel like a top.

[00:01:51]It feels like a starting point. Let me start with the rule book that just broke. The traditional relationship between CPI and silver is this. When inflation rises, the Federal Reserve keeps rates higher for longer.

[00:02:03]Higher rates mean a stronger dollar. A stronger dollar pressures silver.

[00:02:07]This has been one of the most reliable relationships in commodity markets for 40 years. That relationship broke yesterday, and it broke spectacularly.

[00:02:14]Here is the precise sequence. CPI printed at 3.8% at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, May 12th. Dollar went up, yields went up, stocks went down, and silver, which opened that morning at 85.59, consolidated Tuesday, and then in Wednesday's session ran to a day high of 89.87 before touching 90.02 as I record this.

[00:02:35]The energy component tells you exactly why silver ignored the dollar. The energy index rose 3.8% in April alone, accounting for over 40% of the entire monthly CPI increase. Confirmed directly by the BLS official release, energy prices are up 17.9% over the past 12 months. Gasoline prices rose 5.4% in April alone and are up 28.4% over the past year. Confirmed by BLS and Townhall's April inflation breakdown, every dollar of that energy inflation traces back to one place, the Strait of Hormuz. The Hormuz disruption is not just a geopolitical event anymore. It is a structural inflation driver that is now embedded inside the US Consumer Price Index.

[00:03:14]The CME FedWatch tool shows over 70% probability of a rate hike by April 2027.

[00:03:20]Not a cut. A hike.

[00:03:22]The door to rate cuts is firmly shut through year end, confirmed by Trading Key.

[00:03:27]Silver went up when every textbook said it should go down because silver is no longer primarily a rate-sensitive paper trade.

[00:03:33]It is a supply-constrained physical asset in an environment where the disruption driving the inflation is simultaneously the disruption draining the vault.

[00:03:42]You cannot use the rate lever to push silver down when the same event causing the high rates is the event causing the silver shortage. That is the broken rule book. Now, I need to tell you about something that dropped this morning that almost no silver commentary has addressed. The April PPI report was released today, Wednesday, May 13th at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, confirmed by the BLS official schedule. PPI measures inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers. The numbers were shocking. Headline PPI came in at plus 6.0% year-over-year and by 1.4% for the month. The Dow Jones consensus expected positive 0.5% for the month. The actual reading was nearly 3x the estimate. The largest monthly PPI increase since March 2022. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose 1.0% for the month versus an expected 0.4%.

[00:04:33]All confirmed by CNBC, The New York Times, and X Markets data real-time data posted at 8:40 a.m. Eastern this morning. The NYT's headline said it directly. Wholesale prices jumped in April in latest sign of war's economic ripples. Three-quarters of the increase in goods prices came from a 7.8% rise in final demand energy. Over 40% of that was a 15.6% spike in gasoline prices, confirmed by CNBC's PPI breakdown. Why does this matter for silver specifically? When PPI is elevated, the cost pressure in CPI is confirmed to still be building in the pipeline. It means the 3.8% CPI print we saw yesterday is not a ceiling. It is a floor. And it means the cost of mining silver is rising simultaneously. Energy costs at silver mines in Mexico and Peru go up directly with diesel prices. When marginal miners cut production, the supply deficit gets worse. The 46.3 million oz annual deficit, The Silver Institute is already projecting gets harder to close, not easier. Hot CPI yesterday, scorching PPI today, both confirming the same structural reality.

[00:05:37]The war news shock is now a confirmed multi-month inflation event that has restructured the Fed's policy path, restructured silver mining economics, and restructured the relationship between the dollar and the silver price.

[00:05:47]Now, let me show you the data that matters more than any inflation print.

[00:05:51]The COMEX registered pool. The COMEX registered silver pool currently stands at 80.0 M oz, confirmed live on gold silver.ai today.

[00:06:00]The coverage ratio is 15.3% right at the stress threshold. gold silver.ai labels the current situation tight. Paper leverage stands at 6.5 XX, meaning for every 1 oz of deliverable silver in the vault, there are 6.5 oz of paper claims outstanding. The COMEX stress index is 52 out of 100. The all-time high was 88.

[00:06:22]We are more than halfway to maximum stress right now. The date every silver holder needs to write down is May 29th, 2026. That is 16 days from today. May 29 is the first notice day for the June COMEX silver contract, confirmed by CME Group's official futures calendar. For context on how big this market has been this year, heading into April 30th, first notice day, there were 134.8 M oz of May silver contracts still open against 77 to 80 M oz of registered silver. Coverage was 13 to 14% below the 15% stress threshold for six consecutive months, confirmed by gold silver.com's April 26th analysis.

[00:07:02]May 2026 has already seen 26.7 M oz delivered. March 2026 saw 46.1 M oz delivered.

[00:07:11]The physical delivery machine has not slowed down. Even with 3.1 M oz flowing into the registered pool over the past 30 days, silver still ran to $90. The physical bid is absorbing new supply as fast as it arrives. That is the most important sentence in this entire section. Now, let me talk about industrial demand, because some of you have been asking in the comments whether substitution, manufacturers switching away from silver at high prices, is a real risk to the thesis.

[00:07:38]The honest answer is that it is a real but contained risk in one sector and not a risk at all in two others.

[00:07:44]In solar panels, silver demand from photovoltaic producers fell 6% in 2025 to 186.6 oz and is forecast to fall a further 19% in 2026 to approximately 151 m oz. Some Chinese manufacturers, including Longi Green Energy and Jinko Solar, have announced substitution programs at current price levels.

[00:08:04]Confirmed by PV Magazine, April 2026 and Business Insider, January 2026.

[00:08:10]But here is what the solar substitution does not capture. In electric vehicles, battery EVs use 67 to 79% more silver per unit than internal combustion engine cars.

[00:08:21]Oxford Economics projects automotive silver demand to rise at a 3.4% compound annual growth rate through 2031, reaching approximately 94 m oz annually.

[00:08:31]EVs are expected to overtake ice vehicles as the main automotive silver consumer by 2027, confirmed by the Silver Institute's next generation metal report. In artificial intelligence infrastructure, every server, connector, semiconductor, and high reliability contact in every data center contains silver. AI data centers currently consume approximately 8 m oz of silver annually. That figure is growing at 25.9% per year through 2030, confirmed by Discovery Alert and goldsilver.com's April analysis. The net result, the Silver Institute projects a 46.3 m oz deficit for 2026, the sixth consecutive annual shortfall. That number already includes the solar substitution that is happening. The deficit exists after accounting for the demand reduction. The five-year cumulative drawdown stands at 762 m oz. That is metal that was in warehouses five years ago and is no longer there, confirmed by the Silver Institute World Silver Survey 2026 and goldsilver.com's April 26th analysis.

[00:09:31]Now, I want to give you the Bank of America number, but I'm going to give it to you honestly, which means giving you both sides of what they said.

[00:09:38]In early 2026, Bank of America's head of metals research, Michael Widmer, published a silver price target with a range of $135 to $309 per ounce for 2026.

[00:09:50]Confirmed by The Street, Yahoo Finance, and multiple financial publications.

[00:09:55]The math behind those targets is anchored in the gold to silver ratio.

[00:09:58]When BofA wrote the note, gold was trading near $5,000. Applying the 2011 low ratio of 32.1 to $5,000 gold produces $156 silver. Applying the 1980 Hunt Brothers extreme ratio of 14.1 produces $309 silver. The $135 base case assumes continuation of the bull market without a squeeze event. The $309 is a physical squeeze scenario. But here is what the bullish summaries left out. The same Michael Widmer also wrote separately in January 2026 that silver at those levels was vastly overvalued and that a fundamentally justified price was closer to $60 per ounce at that time. He said prices had moved well beyond levels justified by fundamentals and warned about violent price swings, confirmed by investing.com's coverage of the BofA note. So the full BofA picture is this.

[00:10:48]Fundamentally justified around $60 at January levels, but with a ratio-based scenario path to 135-309 if physical demand and investor flows maintain their pace. Silver at $90 today sits well above the BofA fundamental estimate. Whether that gap closes upward toward $135 or corrects toward $60 depends on whether the physical delivery pressure and industrial demand story continues to override the fundamental valuation. That is not a sell signal.

[00:11:15]It is context. And on this channel you get the full context, not just the part that confirms the thesis.

[00:11:21]The silver price 1 year ago today, May 13th, 2025, was approximately $32.93 per ounce, confirmed by BullionRates historical May 2025 data. Today's price is $90. That is a 173% gain over 12 months. Silver opened 2026 at $72.68 on January 1st, confirmed by StatMuse and CBS News historical data. Today's $90 represents a 23.8% gain year-to-date in 2026 alone. Silver hit its all-time high of 121.64 on January 29th, 2026, confirmed by LightFinance and Financial Content historical data. The crash from 121.64 to $72 was a 40.8% correction. And from that $70 floor, silver has now recovered 25% back toward the all-time high. Let me bring it together. CPI at 3.8% hottest since May 2023, PPI at plus 6.0% YOY, plus 1.4% monthly, nearly 3x the expected reading, largest monthly jump since March 2022. Dollar strengthened, treasury yields rose, gold fell, everything that should have pushed silver down happened, and silver hit $90 anyway.

[00:12:31]The COMEX registered pool sits at 80.0 M oz with a 15.3% coverage ratio, a 6.5x paper leverage ratio, and a stress index of 52 out of 100. May 29th is 16 days away. The physical delivery machine delivered 46.1 M oz in March and 26.7 M oz so far in May. The physical bid is absorbing new supply as fast as it arrives. The old rule book said, "Hot inflation kills silver." The new reality is that in a Moob disrupted world, the inflation and the silver price are running on the same engine.

[00:13:04]When the engine accelerates, both move together. If this is your first video on this channel, understand what we do here. Every number is sourced. Every claim has a citation. The CPI data is from the BLS official release. The PPI data is from the BLS official release and CNBC May 13th. The COMEX figures are from gold silver.ai pulled live today.

[00:13:23]The BofA range is from the street and Yahoo Finance. The Silver Institute deficit numbers are from the World Silver Survey 2026. All links are in the description. Pull everyone yourself.

[00:13:33]Subscribe right now and turn the bell on. May 29th is 16 days away. The dedicated delivery day video with the full open interest versus registered pool math and the specific scenarios publishes before that date. You need to be here when it drops. If you hold PSLV, the physical backed fund held at the Royal Canadian Mint, tonight confirmed the structural thesis. PSLV tracks real allocated metal. When the paper price hits $90 on a hot CPI day while a hot PPI drops the same morning, it means the physical bid is overriding every traditional macro suppressor simultaneously. The next zone I'm watching above $90 is $92 to $94. The first meaningful support below tonight's close is the $86 to $87 zone. If you hold SLV, tonight confirmed the $86 breakout. The structural distinction between SLV and PSLV matters more heading into May 29th than it does in a quiet market.

[00:14:26]SLV tracks the paper COMEX price. PSLV has physical redemption rights backed by metal at the Royal Canadian Mint.

[00:14:33]In a delivery pressure environment, that distinction is the most important thing to understand about what you own. If you hold AGQ, the 2x leveraged silver ETF, tonight's $9 weekly move represents approximately an 8-tier move in your instrument over the same five sessions.

[00:14:47]AGQ requires a clearly defined exit plan for both scenarios around May 29th. The directional risk in the 16 days ahead is elevated in both directions. If you hold physical silver, tonight is the night the market agrees with your thesis at $90. The people who held physical through the $121 to $72 crash, through the 8 weeks of paper suppression below $80, are holding metal that the market just priced at $90. Your only job right now is to understand what the 16-day countdown to May 29th means for the price of the metal you already own. One more thing. To the comment that says silver tanked when the Iran war started, so the war is not the reason for the price.

[00:15:27]That comment is factually correct about what happened and completely wrong about what it means. Silver crashed from 121 64 to $72 in February. That was a 40.8% correction. It happened because the January 2026 all-time high was driven by rate cut expectations, not by the war.

[00:15:47]When the war started in February and oil spiked, the Fed rate cut narrative died instantly. The repricing of that narrative caused the crash. Paper margin calls and leverage liquidations amplified it, but underneath the paper crash, the Comex registered pool drained from 86.3 member oz to 76 member oz.

[00:16:03]Physical buyers used the discount to take delivery of real metal at lower prices. When the paper market stabilized, the physical market had absorbed a 10 million oz delivery wave.

[00:16:13]The paper price then had to reprice toward the physical reality. That is what has been happening since March.

[00:16:18]That is what produced $90 tonight. All sources are in the description. Every single claim in this video independently verified before recording. Subscribe and hit the bell. The May 29th video is the most important analysis I will publish before the June delivery session. This is not financial advice. Nothing in this video constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment. All data is sourced as of Wednesday, May 13th, 2026. All prices are live and volatile. Verify everything independently. This is John, your OG Asian guy. $90 on a hot CPI day and a scorching PPI morning. The old rulebook is done. See you for the May 29th countdown.