Trump’s Bleating Iran Strategy Is Spiraling Out of Control

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Hey everybody, it's me Sam Stein. I am back from vacation joined by Sarah Longwell, our fearless publisher.

[00:00:05]>> Thank God you're back.

[00:00:07]>> It's great to be back. Uh you might be noticing I'm a bit red uh slightly tanner than usual. Here's what happened.

[00:00:14]Uh my family and I went down to Key West uh for a couple days and a family friend decided that it would be fun to go on a boat together. You might not know this, but the Jewish composition and constitution doesn't do very well with seafaring. And we all got absolutely viciously nauseous. And three of the four family members of the Stein clan puked over the side. And this one decided the best thing to do is just lay in the front of the boat like this the entire time. I did put on sunscreen, but I left that episode very red. This is like 4 days later.

[00:00:46]>> Yeah, I was going to say you look you look golden. Like I just want to say like stay gold, pony boy. You look great.

[00:00:51]>> Yeah, it wasn't like this. It was not like this. I've been putting a lot of lotion on. I've been putting ice packs on. It was quite red. Ice packs. It was bad. I was torched. Anyways, it's great to be back, Sarah.

[00:01:03]>> I'm glad to have you.

[00:01:04]>> We have a lot to get through. We are recording this around 3:15 p.m. on Sunday. And it looks like our president has bleeded his way back into a war.

[00:01:14]This time potentially worse than before.

[00:01:16]Because shortly before we jumped on, news broke that the Iranian negotiators have decided they're not going to actually go to Islamabad and meet with the Trump team. Now, everything is definitely, you know, dynamic and fluid.

[00:01:30]Who knows what happens by the time this posts, but um this seems to be a direct product of Trump bloiating on truth and and saying and then not getting rid of the uh blockade of Iran and then talking about a deal that maybe didn't actually exist in theory, but insisting that it did. I don't know, Sarah, I've been catching up because I've been off.

[00:01:51]What's like what's the real What's your real take on this? What do you think's going on here? My real take is that you can go on vacation for a week and when you come back we're going to be at exactly the same place. Oh, I feel like we keep jumping on in the weekend and then like Trump does something to calm the market uh usually just before Monday and then often tries to calm the market before everybody leaves on before it closes on Fridays. Uh and so sometimes you get sort of like rational behavior in these spurts when he feels like the pressure is on and then he just freaks out and starts bleeding uh on truth social which is how we conduct foreign policy these days. And I want to say this has been chaotic from the start. So I was following this this morning and I was trying to figure out who they were sending on the envoy and there were mixed reports coming out about who was even going. Was JD Vance the lead negotiator uh or was it going to be Witoff and Jared? like which of these three stooges was going to be the one to see this deal fall apart. Turns out it was Trump with his thumbs actually who cuz he's again threatening to bomb everything. Like the truth sounds very similar to the ones before where it's like if you don't sign this deal which is a deal he says already happened but if you don't sign this deal uh we're going to bomb all your stuff again. I guess, you know, I had this sort of sensation that it's classic Trump in the worst way, right? It's like, oh, everyone just assumes that this is a negotiating tactic and he's just, you know, talking in this maximalist posture and that it's really not going to happen. But why do we have to assume that? Like, why do we have to play by these rules?

[00:03:20]At some point, you know, maybe he does go forward with it, but it's just it's an absurd thing to threaten to wipe out power plants and kill a bunch of people as a negotiating tactic. So, you can see it right here. It's a lot of words, but eventually gets down to um something about and I hope they take it because if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant, every single bridge in Iran. No more Mr. Nice Guy. They'll come down fast.

[00:03:46]They're talking about oil prices.

[00:03:47]They'll come down easy. And if they don't take the deal, it will be my honor to do what has to be done. And it's just like we've been here before.

[00:03:55]>> And this is the thing. The Iranians know we've been here before, right? Like this is the problem. I mean, look, there's a million problems with conducting foreign policy on his janky personal social media site, but one of them is he's already threatened to take out an entire civilization. We've already been on, hey, Trump's going to bomb everything watch. And guess what he did? It seems like, especially in retrospect now with the information we have, he made up a fake like maybe they did restart negotiations, but he was like, "It's all over. It's done. We've got a deal." And then remember we started seeing different versions of the points of the deal come out. It became clear pretty quickly these were not conditions that we could possibly agree to. Not without America being not only humiliated but in like a much worse position than when we started. So now the Iranians are like well this guy just says stuff and you know he's so afraid to do anything.

[00:04:48]>> Well just to backtrack. So the initial I'm I'm hoping I get the chronology right here, but they had announced a tentative agreement around 10-point principal plan. And the 10-point plan was to your point, it would have made the Obama era deal like, you know, a a diplomatic feat. Uh it it was huge sanctions relief, billions of dollars uh for the Iranians, no real long-term cap on their nuclear ambitions. Uh and then in exchange the straight of our moves would still be told by the Iranians. So it was like all these things that it didn't make sense.

[00:05:23]It would put us in a worse position in >> remember at one point we were going to do joint tolls with the Iranians.

[00:05:29]Remember Trump announced that >> with crypto or something like that >> like that wasn't a real thing. And also when you talking about the Obama deal, this is actually these are actually different things like following this is is impossible. But at one point it was we are going to give them I can't remember how many billion it was billion 20 billion I believe in order >> to secure uranium rights which then the Iranians quickly said yeah we're not giving that to you like that's not a thing that's happening. And so we I mean I've always said that we can't trust our government in this like you cannot trust Trump on any of this, but you really can't I mean literally everything coming out seems to be disproven in short order.

[00:06:07]>> Well, let's can we stay on that for a second because this is the this is the theme, right? It's like what can you trust from him? So the the contours of any agreement that he's announcing seem to be easily disproven within a couple hours. On the flip side, these maximalist threats to wipe out the civilization, bomb all the power plants, so on and so forth, take out the bridges, I guess you can't trust those either because he always, I don't want to say chickens out, he always doesn't take that ramp. And yet, I find myself not willing to completely dismiss the idea that he'd be willing to do that. Am I foolish for that? I don't know. It's like I still find myself bothered by and scared for the possibility that he will go forward with some sort of insane quasi genocidal campaign in Iran.

[00:07:00]>> I mean, I don't think that that's wrong of you because ultimately what happens here is you get into a battle of egos.

[00:07:06]Like this is because this is Trump's war because he launched it without Congress and because he doesn't have real negotiators next to him.

[00:07:13]>> This is a war now of Trump's id. Like we all we I think we've all believed in different permutations across the bull work that he would find some way out of this that was meant to be face saving but we also all said that like that might not be possible because the other side was going to have a vote on this.

[00:07:31]Well, hold on because there there was a way it's not like a full way out, but like let's just put it the straight of Hormuz, right?

[00:07:38]>> As of a couple days ago, there was some sort of agreement that it would be reopened and that maybe they would do a toll on some ships, but it was going to be open. Trump announced it and then Trump went ahead and was like, you know what, we're keeping the blockade on Iran in place. Which then prompted the Iranians to say, well then if you're going to do that, we're going to close the straight of moose. And we just got word like this afternoon uh that there are now zero ships. Zero ships uh this is from the Kobasi letter which has been monitoring the stuff. Zero oil tankers have passed through the straight of formoose today. It appears the straight of moose is now completely closed. This is the first time in history and that's because the blockade. So he does to your I just want to say there are kind of offramps if he's willing to take it but he keeps it up and stepping on rakes.

[00:08:26]>> Yeah. And I don't know if you did you see this that they are they got passage for a couple ships like they were sanctioned to go through and then the Iranians started to fire on them and so it's the people in the ships saying you told US WE COULD GO NAVY SEPA navy this is motoranal you gave me clearance to go my name second on your list you gave me clearance to go YOU ARE FIGHTING NOW LET ME TURN BACK >> and this is again before this whole thing started before America and Israel deced decided to do this. The straight of Hormuz was open and oil was moving through it. And so now now all of the objectives again the objectives being complete and total or surrender by Iran which is what we were told. Now it appears the only objective is can we get the straight of hormuz open so that oil can pass through because the entire world is freaking out about uh the accelerating oil prices and what it will do to the economy if we do not have the straight form moves which appears to be a contingency and a thing that nobody in America our American government seems to >> No that's absurd. I I can't fathom that.

[00:09:31]Yeah, maybe in our government for sure.

[00:09:33]But there was that old Iranian um principal in the NYSE, I believe, who actually served for Trump who came out and was like, "No, this was definitely talked about as a likely outcome if we attacked Iran." And the other thing, of course, now is that Iran knows they can use this as a leverage point. Right. It wasn't clear if that if that was possible, but they clearly can do it now.

[00:09:51]>> Yeah. So, like then what happened? So, somebody warned them and they just decided like, "Well, we don't care." I mean, every every piece of reporting we see about this, >> Trump appears completely off caught off guard by the fact that they now have this leverage.

[00:10:04]>> Did you um did you read the big Wall Street Journal piece last night about all this Trump?

[00:10:10]>> I read. Okay. Quick summarization of this. Trump is basically he gets bored of it.

[00:10:14]>> Yeah. and he gets angry at it and he doesn't know what to do about it and he's mad at people and the opening android is when those two fighter pilots were shot down and he freaked out and he wanted to absolutely get them back right away and the military was like whoa whoa you got to figure out if this is like safe to do. Anyways, this graph really stood out. I'm going to read it for people who are listening and not watching. Trump demanded that the military go get them immediately. This is the fighter pilots. But the US hadn't been on the ground in Iran since the government overthrow that led to the hostage crisis, and they needed to figure out how to get into the treacherous Iranian territory and avoid Thrron's own military. AIDS kept the president out of the room as they got minute-by-minute updates because they believed his impatience wouldn't be helpful. Instead, updating him at meaningful moments, a senior administration official said. What if denied this, by the way? I if I what a damning damning embarrassing paragraph >> but this is my point that I was saying to earlier when I'm saying this is being conducted by Trump's id like right now the only way to do this is by people getting Trump away from the process but because there's no way that actual people in our government thinks that him bleeding like this is a good idea and it's useful for the negotiations. We don't even have regular diplomats. Like, it's his it's his business deal buddy Wickoff and his son-in-law who, by the way, has extensive business in the region. In fact, both of them do.

[00:11:35]Anyway, I I I don't know what to say about that other than this is this is the thing. If Trump is doing it himself and he gets backed into a corner and he thinks he's about to be humiliated, that it it it blows up, no pun intended, his art of the deal uh thing. That's why he has to look for an offramp. But if he gets cornered, this is when I think he could start bombing things for real.

[00:11:54]Well, and this is what Barack Ravit, who's like the Axio reporter, he's he's an atteorter, he's about as plugged in with the administration as you can get, gets a lot of scoops from them, but he had a summary of the situation and it was pretty sobering. Uh, basically, he talked to Trump. We should talk about this in a second about these like periodic phone calls that Trump makes to a million journals. But you can see up here, Ravine is saying the second bullet point is what kind of stands out. The Iranians believe Trump's optimistic statements are a deception and a cover for a surprise American attack. And then the fourth one, the Iranians, on the other hand, are lowering expectations, even claim that there's no negotiation round with the US this week. Iranian officials suspect that the US might attack them before the end of the ceasefire on Tuesday night. I mean, we're not in a great diplomatic spot if you believe you're going to get attacked prior to the end of ceasefire. But this is that that's a card Trump has done before, right? I mean this was I believe how the first Iranian operation started was there was supposed to be some sort of talk in the air and then they just hit and so I think they are not going to go down that road again and that's why we have word that the Iranians are not going to show up in Pakistan.

[00:13:00]>> Yeah. And this is where the longer this goes on the more Trump's moves become transparent and the less opportunity he has to sort of do your mad men theory.

[00:13:10]Yeah, >> they're basically they're ready to call his bluff, >> which means he's got to at some point do it.

[00:13:17]>> Do the thing or walk away with far less than what he had.

[00:13:22]>> What a mess. All right, before we go, what do you make of these like little 3 to five minute phone calls that he keeps doing with journalists? It's so stupid at this point. If you're a journalist getting on the call, I mean, I understand why you take a call from the president, whatever, but you got to tweet it out with some skepticism at this juncture. It's just ridiculous.

[00:13:39]>> Yeah. I mean, honestly, I just think this is a function of Trump's narcissism, right? Like, he wants to be seen as in charge and he likes people calling up. It allows him to continue to sow chaos and play people off. Like, >> I have thought this whole time like he's not trying to give us good information.

[00:13:55]We're not He's not He's not trying to gave that away. He's not trying to help us better understand this. So, like it's great that they can get him on the phone. I'm not sure it's actually helping us get more information about >> I've been wondering what I would ask him if I got him on the phone. And I know I only like three or five minutes. And it's like, you know, he's just going to lie to you about stuff. So like, what do you say? So are you really going to bomb civilization to like the stone ages?

[00:14:17]>> I mean, I would ask him, why are you still the president? Can you please get out of here? You're obviously destroying the country.

[00:14:23]>> Maybe I would ask him if >> that's a question and more a statement for me.

[00:14:26]>> Yeah, that's Well, Sarah, let me talk to you. No. Um, I think I would ask him now, I guess. Why did you Why did your own adviserss keep you out of a discussion? He's just going to be like, "That didn't happen. Fake news."

[00:14:38]>> Yeah, that's true. He'll just be like, "Fake news. Who are you?" All right.

[00:14:41]Well, Trump, if you're watching, come on the pod. Sarah, thank you for doing this. Appreciate it. You would take Trump on the pie. Get out of here.

[00:14:49]>> To yell at him, not not to glean anything from it.

[00:14:52]>> Well, it'll be adversarial, but that's the point. All right. Thank you for doing this. Thank you guys for watching the Take. Appreciate it. Missed you guys. Great to be back in the feed.

[00:15:00]Subscribe to the Bull Work where you get conversations just like this. Take care.

[00:15:04]>> Bye.