Chas Freeman: Crisis in Israel & Iranian Nuclear Weapons

Añadido: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]Welcome back. We are joined today by Ambassador Chaz Freeman, the former US assistant secretary of defense to discuss uh well primarily what's going on in the Middle East. So it's good to see you again, Ambassador. Always a pleasure.

[00:00:15]>> Great to see you, Glenn. I hope you're going to explain what's going on in the Middle East.

[00:00:20]>> Well, that's why I have you here. Uh again, well, you are the former uh ambassador to Saudi Arabia, so this is uh your your part of the world, and I I I wanted to ask you, what do you make of this new Well, we hear some splits now between Trump and Netanyahu. I'm not sure what's just what is real or not anymore. That's one of the disadvantages of the Trump administration, I guess. Um but uh again, Israel is undergoing a lot of change uh as it's pursuing this very aggressive foreign policy. What do you see happening uh with Israel and its relationship with the United States?

[00:01:02]>> Well, I think there is a great deal of tension between Netanyahu and Trump. Um Netanyahu basically talked Trump into this war. It's gone very badly. Uh it now looks as though it will end in a number of possible ways. Um um none of which is good for uh Netanyahu. None of which u achieve the objectives uh he has. Um so the ways in which the war could end um you know the in many ways the politically uh cleverest way for Trump to get out of this would be to allow the Congress to um vote vote an end to the war. Um, and to say, well, you know, I was on the road to victory, but they stabbed me in the back and I was betrayed by the Democrats and apostate Republicans and rhinos, Republicans in name only and so forth and so on. I could see him doing that.

[00:02:06]Um, that is one way of getting out of this. It doesn't that leaves Israel high and dry. And indeed any uh exit from the war uh invalidates u the US partnership with Israel against Iran. That is to say, no no future president is going to do what Donald Trump uh did. But um uh at the moment what we have is a memorandum of understanding apparently a one-page document which is not a piece not a not an agreement but it's an agreement to negotiate and we have the ironic statement from Donald Trump uh who went to war with no negotiations and used uh diplomacy as a cover for surprise attack that you know well we have to exhaust diplomatic means before we resort to force. Um I guess he learned something from the first round uh where he didn't apply diplomacy at all. It looked like Mr. Whitov and Mr. Kushner have been removed from the process which is uh now being run by professional diplomats uh and leaders from Pakistan and Qatar uh who are attempting to mediate this Um the immediate reaction to Donald Trump's statement that we're close to an agreement which seems to be a characteristic overstatement on his part. There's been some progress evidently made along in some areas. Um but the immediate reaction in from Israel was oh no um great headlines you know about Trump selling out Israel and so forth and so on. The Israelis are in an election mode so that they're a bit subdued in their criticism of Trump because of course he could turn around and do to them what he's done to uh everyone every uh one who's crossed him in the United States and or in Europe or elsewhere. Um namely um try to trash their reputation.

[00:04:21]People who are running for office don't like that. So they've held their fire a bit. Um that is I think they've been quite tough. Netanyahu has been quite forceful in private on telephone conversations with Donald Trump but he's not um publicly that based him. Uh on the other hand, uh Israel's faithful um stooges in the United States um people like Lindsey Graham and so on, Ted Cruz and others um um uh have um have pulled out all the stops. U uh this is a sellout. Uh we need to, you know, go back to war, finish the job and so forth and so on.

[00:05:05]Uh the problem for Donald Trump is u uh he's basically cornered. Um on the one hand he has Netanyahu putting pressure on him. Um his Jewish donors, Israeli donors, Miriam Hlesson is an Israeli. Um $250 million donation is not trivial. Um they're both ganging up on him. Part of his own Republican base is in rebellion.

[00:05:33]um and his military are telling him, you know, you can't there's no real military option. Uh you can't we can't hope to succeed. And and they may even have asked him to give them an order in writing, which is what the military do when they're being asked to do something they know is infeasible and uh want to be able to levy blame on whoever it was that issued the order. I want that order in writing. Uh is is the characteristic response in those circumstances.

[00:06:09]Uh the other possibility of course is that um this thing just sort of peters out and uh it goes on and so and so on.

[00:06:20]But the elements of the of the alleged um uh deal which is not a deal but uh a uh framework for negotiating deals on the key issues. Um the essence of it is is essentially um that the straight of hormones will be open. Of course it is open if you do a deal with Iran. Um uh so um I'm not quite sure what that means. Um uh it's claimed that there would be no tolls levied. Um I don't believe that for a minute. Um that Iran has agreed to that.

[00:06:58]Uh it's very clear that Iran is demanding sanctions release of the sanctions relief and release of the frozen funds that number in the tens of billions of dollars um that it it has been deprived of. Uh it's also very clear that Iran is not going to um do anything unless it gets something first.

[00:07:22]Uh Iran has no confidence at all in the United States, having walked away from the JCPOA, the joint comprehensive plan of action and nuclear deal in Trump's first term, having watched um United States reneg on various commitments in negotiations with Rkco and Kushner, having seen the United States repudiate treaties with others, and of course um uh so uh you know, I think Iran will demand uh payment upfront before it does anything. Uh and that's going to be very hard. Uh so this is as I said once before on your program, this is this is uh immobilization. Um anything Trump does causes him defeat uh and the United States defeat. This is a ridiculous situation to have gotten into. Uh so basically um um Iran um u is not going to release the enriched uranium to any third party certainly not the United States by order of the new supreme leader MTA.

[00:08:42]Uh it is not going to give up control of the state of Hormuz.

[00:08:46]uh it is not going to make uh compromises to appease the United States. It has achieved escalation dominance in effect uh with the Israelis.

[00:08:59]Uh and um it's demanding that um any deal include a real as opposed to a phony ceasefire in Lebanon. Which brings me to the final point. if there actually is a deal, Israel is in a perfect position to sabotage it and will do so.

[00:09:19]So, um uh you know, as usual, uh Glenn, when we talk about these subjects, it's all gloom and doom u that comes to mind.

[00:09:29]There's no happy, there's no pot of gold at the end of this rainbow that I can see.

[00:09:36]>> Yeah. Well, as you said, there's no good options left. And I think this is the problem for Trump. That is if he goes back to fighting Iran, then uh there's limits for how long he can fight, it's unclear if he will be able to get a ceasefire once he's out of ammunition.

[00:09:52]And uh so also can't can't win on the battlefield. But if he pursues peace, then the Iranians do not want to go back to the old status quo. So they will make sure that they hold on to the straight of her moose to make sure well create incentives for countries not to host bases or put sanctions but so you can't do one can't do the other but also just waiting is also not ideal because uh >> the global economy is tanking so one has to one has to end the current well not not not ceasefire. Yep. Let me let me um make a point here and that is that um Trump and his administration are paying a price in domestic politics for having uh misdescribed reality. That is to say they have been claiming levels of victory over Iran which are utterly implausible and which don't hold up to scrutiny. And for example, um, you know, on the question of going back to war, the United States is busily deferring or cancelling contracts to supply all sorts of equipment uh to allies and um protected states.

[00:11:10]um the the $14 billion deal with Taiwan, which Trump has yet formally to decide can't happen because there's no equipment to be provided. Um uh the uh some of the Baltic states have been informed that they will not get the weapons they paid for on the schedule they imagined. Um uh the same is true obviously of of others. Equipment has been moved out of Japan and South Korea.

[00:11:45]Um there's anyway, you know, so so um the administration's been bravely putting on a uh a show claiming that there was no depletion of weaponry or defensive capability uh as a result of this ridiculous war.

[00:12:05]Um but the facts that they're behaving entirely in in in conformity with the fact that it did h did happen. So you know you can listen to them or you can watch what they doing and I think it's more instructive to watch what they're doing. They're in a box. Um and uh the drive the summer driving season is upon us in the United States. This is the time when people take vacations and move around and um the price of gasoline uh is well $455 or so nationally now. Um the price of oil just went down again. Um oil traders, it turns out, are terminally stupid and keep falling for the same uh absurd tricks of market manipulation.

[00:12:56]Um so um Brandt uh went down substantially uh and um uh but that won't hold and um so and it certainly won't be benefit if u if kinetic uh action against Iran has is stepped up. And there's another point here and that is uh militarily it's not just that we've depleted our capabilities and we're causing a great deal of operational uh wear and tear on our forces. Uh but um Iran has used the six weeks of the of the effective truths um uh to reconstitute its armed forces and um the intelligence community has totally um contradicted the administration's claims of the levels of damage done to Iran's inventory of missiles. Iran is back producing drones in high volume. Uh it may even be getting some drones from the Russians. although the Russians are using their own drones against Ukraine pretty forcefully.

[00:14:10]So, um uh you know there's just nothing here that um uh that justifies any optimism really.

[00:14:20]>> No. Uh no. Sadly, I wish there was some more reason for optimism. Uh but you mentioned before that uh Israel would um likely seek to sabotage if uh Trump will go down the path of peace that is to find an agreement with Iran. But uh how how far can the Israelis themselves take this though because there seems to be a growing crisis of the ethos of Israel?

[00:14:45]Well, you know what what is the country?

[00:14:46]What does it stand for? And uh this is usually a problem on seas with empires as well. that is violence abroad. It tends to change the society at home. You see power always uh replacing principles. Uh citizens might become too disconnected from uh the world. Freedoms at home decline. So how do you see how sustainable is this for Israel? because they do have not just the economic problem and overstretched military, but you hear also more about very deep divisions at home to the point where even some uh journalists in Israel are talking about the prospect of a civil war. I don't think they're quite there yet, but uh things are not going well.

[00:15:35]Well, I think uh of course the key to everything is the American uh logistical support for Israel and political backing of Israel which uh allows Israel to behave not just with impunity but with wild abandon really. Uh it creates moral hazard for Israel. Um and Israel has uh fallen into that trap. Um but the you know the Israeli aim uh in Lebanon um remains uh um an effective annexation.

[00:16:12]Uh they're talking about a buffer zone, but really what they're talking about is turning southern Lebanon into the equivalent of a Gaza. Uh and um they can do that as long as the United States continues to supply them with weapons.

[00:16:26]Uh and Trump has apparently assured them that we will. So um uh how that fits into the proposed um understanding with Iran is most unclear. Iran is not going to abandon Lebanon. It also has a sense of honor um which is at stake. Um so there's that. Um and as if this weren't enough, um you know, actually Israel is being badly hurt in Lebanon. Husbah apparently has u optical fiberguided drones which are very effective and um and it's actually losing a fair number of soldiers and a lot of equipment. Uh but um and it's been beaten by Hezbollah before. Uh the talks with the Lebanese government are a sideshow. Lebanese government has no authority to end the war on for Hezbollah. Hezbollah has denounced the negotiations.

[00:17:25]Uh and and so this is a sideshow of farce staged for um performative effect.

[00:17:34]Um but as if this weren't enough and all the problems you mentioned u you know declining economy u uh reserveists who are fatigued and affected with post-traumatic stress disorder and um uh a military that is not doing well in Lebanon.

[00:17:54]uh chief of of the armed forces who says that the Israeli defense forces are in danger of falling apart. Um the imminence of elections in a context for Netany is very unpopular uh among many Israelis. As if this weren't enough, you have u uh Ben Greer dramatizing the sadism of the Israeli populace, his own sadism and Israel's sadism uh with the flotillaa that and the people seized from the flotillaa.

[00:18:31]um that has cost Israel a huge amount in not just in the United States uh where only 6% of Democrats now have a positive v view of Israel and and then nobody uh below the age of 50 has a positive view of Israel now in the United States and um you know there's uh the only people who do are so-called boomer Republicans ans that is Republicans born right after World War II in the uh baby boom. Um and they're dying. Well, I'm actually not a boomer. I'm older than they are. I'm not dead yet, but uh but it's coming, you know. So, 15 years from now, they're not going to be around to uh support Israel.

[00:19:20]So, maybe even shorter. But is it but um Europeans are finally beginning to react uh to the rape and humiliation the beating of their own citizens in this flatillaa. Some of the accounts are really quite hairraising and uh so uh Benier is not an aberration.

[00:19:44]Uh he is a representation of Israeli behavior today. however much Israelis may choose to uh to ignore it or deny it. And so Israel is rapidly losing its its support base abroad. uh it is essent essentially a pariah internationally and u you know the United States still backs it and we've just seen the United States force Riyad Mansur the uh Palestinian representative at the United Nations to withdraw from his uh uh campaign to become the deputy uh uh leader of the general assembly and he's withdrawn under our pressure on behalf of Israel. Uh but diminishing returns are setting in uh for Israel and um you know in the end um to go back to the irony of Donald Trump extolling the virtues of diplomacy when he has not shown any aptitude for it or even any inclination to use it. Um uh Israel has to make a strategic choice. uh is it prepared to have everyone in the region and the world uh against it? Uh does it think it can survive when it's ostracized in the region it inhabits and not welcome elsewhere? Um uh or is it prepared to try diplomacy for a change? And the fact is that um in 78 years, Israel has never put forward a single peace proposal that uh proposal for peaceful coexistence with the Palestinians or anyone else. Um this is a record of belligerance that is unmatched in human history. And uh it um so Israelis have to make a choice and they don't seem to be inclined to do so.

[00:21:50]And I think as long as the United States continues to write blank checks to Israel and back it without uh any conditions, Israelis will not make a choice.

[00:22:03]And the state of Israel will not survive the conditions it's creating for itself.

[00:22:09]It will like the two Christian crusader kingdoms uh in the middle ages uh the late middle ages it will lose its foreign support and it will collapse. So, you know, I I think anybody I find it very very difficult to understand how anyone who cares about Israel could support the course of action that Israel and the United States have adopted because I think it's ultimately fatal to the state of Israel.

[00:22:44]Well, I think you're right on the Well, I can understand the Israeli approach to their lack of uh well, diplomacy or willing to make any compromise cuz when when for so long you have uh the United States standing behind you, why why would you have to make any compromises if uh you're essentially allowed to do what you want? But uh but that the other on the other hand you would think that Israel would begin to readjust to new realities because as you said the the the mood in the US towards Israel is changing. In other words, the the intentions are no longer uh in the future to support Israel probably to the same extent but also the capabilities as we see I mean the US will always be a powerful state but the era of uh global dominance appears to be over the US would be in relative decline as you have other powers like China and Russia, India soon probably Iran as well emerging. So if you see the US have less capabilities and uh probably less uh positive view towards you then you would think that this will be the time to begin to change instead of doing this maximalist approach to instead start seeking some settlement with the neighbors. Um but uh I I I wanted to ask you about China as well because this is um again uh you're well you also have a plenty of experience from China. you're a Chinese speaker, but uh uh but Trump recently met with um Xiinping in Beijing. Apparently, he puts he wanted to pressure the Chinese to put pressure on Iran. Uh but what do you see being the Chinese strategy in all of this?

[00:24:35]>> Basically, it's masterly inactivity. Um the Dowist philosophy that if you do nothing, everything will happen. U for the good, you know. um um a little bit more than that. But um the Chinese have backed Pakistan's mediation efforts. Um they do want uh peace and stability in the Persian Gulf for very concrete reasons. They depend on it in part uh for energy supplies. It's an important market for them. Um but also they are the defenders of the um former uh world order that the United States uh and Israel have pulled down and uh they want to reestablish the principles of the UN charter and international law u because that is creates an environment that is favorable to them as well as to others. Um so um uh they are I believe um you know they have not modified their uh their lack of export controls to Iran. U they are exporting at least dual use equipment. Um I saw an article the other day that the Russians had supplied the HQ9 to um to Iran. Um but the HQ9 is a Chinese system, air defense system.

[00:25:59]So, I'm not quite sure whether that has been supplied. Donald Trump's military has told him that the Iranians have greatly upgraded their air defenses and then renewed aerial assault would produce a lot of casualties on the part of the attacking forces.

[00:26:17]That may reflect Chinese technical assistance um to the Iranians. They'd be fully justified in doing that. They're non-belligerent. Um, Iran is defending itself. It didn't attack anybody and until it was attacked. So, um, uh, I think that's that. And the idea that you could somehow get the Chinese to endorse the American aggression against Iran by putting pressure on Iran is ridiculous.

[00:26:47]Uh, and it was never going to go anywhere.

[00:26:50]And we have this this the this sharp contrast between u the Trump visit which was um a u a feast for the eyes um uh you know very lavish pageantry personal attention from Cin paying walking around Junganhai the leadership compound in the forbidden city and so on and so forth. Um we have the contrast with Vladimir Putin who comes and you know signs 40 agreements has 40 different uh programs for educ for cooperation including military cooperation but uh many others u apparently they didn't quite complete the power of Siberia uh gas supply agreement although they brought it closer to closure I guess. um probably still an issue of pricing of the gas. Um uh so you know but um basically the Chinese and the Russians demonstrated a model relationship of cooperation and um the Trump uh visit demonstrated a sort of cordial uh cordial hostility I guess is the way I would put it. Um and um uh so uh the China relationship um uh is uh is not stabilized. Um both sides basically agreed they would like to stabilize it.

[00:28:28]Um we'll see what happens. Now, um, you know, in talking to Chinese friends about this, I've cautioned them that, you know, the Trump administration has essentially trashed the ability of the United States to implement agreements.

[00:28:46]Uh, the civil service, the foreign service um have been um um made basically irrelevant or incompetent. and and uh the there's no policy process that uh that coordinates government action effectively in this administration. And so u you know I've said to my Chinese friends, look, I know you you spent the last 4,000 years perfecting pacivity, but it's time for you to actually take the initiative. If you want anything to happen, you're going to have to come up with the ideas and the and the proposals because you're not probably going to get them from uh the American side. And here again, we come back to the discussions with Iran. Uh what I'm hearing from a lot of commentators is that the United States um has demonstrated that it is quote agreement incapable.

[00:29:47]it cannot reach agreements let alone implement them u because it lacks the mechanisms now the professional staff to do that and um I don't you know I'm I'm not sure how the Pakistani guty uh mediation is working u but um it's significant that it's not being run by Americans you It's uh being run by uh in the case of Pakistan uh a Chinese protected state good relationship with China. China is not risking its own reputation. It it's allowing the Pakistanis to do that and um and Qatar of course has a huge incentive to restore peace uh uh with Iran. Uh, I think Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are all in intensive conversations with the Iranians about post-war order, which would not include an American military presence. And this brings me back to Israel, because Israel's lost the deterrence capabilities provided by the United States against Iran. Iran is not intimidated.

[00:31:09]Iran is prepared to go to war again.

[00:31:13]Iran is prepared to take more um damage and suffering um in the interest of national honor, if you will. And um um the United States has demonstrated to the world the limits of it its military capabilities.

[00:31:29]As you said, we are very powerful militarily. We But it turns out that there are lots of things that can't be accomplished through the use of force against a determined enemy that's wellprepared. And the Iranians were wellprepared. They evidently, not only did they have a succession process uh in place to guard against the consequences of the murder of the supreme leader, which they implemented.

[00:31:56]Basically, I as I understand it, when the Ayatollah Ali Kam was was assassinated, uh every Iranian official uh was then backstopped by three or four layers of successors.

[00:32:13]Uh they also decentralized their military command so that each of the 30 provinces in Iran had autonomy of action. Um and um and of course um the result of the war far before the war the straighter formulas was open so there was no issue.

[00:32:34]Now there is an issue. Before the war Iran did not have a nuclear weapons program. Now it probably does. uh the only thing holding it back from nuclear weapons production is the realization on the part of the Iranians who are not stupid that if they go nuclear joining Israel in that then um the Saudis, the Turks, the Egyptians and others will go nuclear and the net result will be diminished security for Iran rather than enhanced security. Uh so a rational calculation would be that you know nuclear latency is still the right pro um position. Uh but um I don't know we nobody knows what's in the minds of the Iranian uh revolution the Islamic revolutionary guard in Iran. Um and um they are in charge. Um and we know we have reason to believe that much the supreme leader unlike his father sees the necessity for a nuclear deterrent. So that may this war may have produced a nuclear proliferation. Uh it also uh has of course um done huge damage to uh energy production in the region and to Israel as well as to Iran and uh any fondness that the Iranian people previously had for the United States is pretty much erased. Um uh so uh the American military presence in the Persian Gulf is now in jeopardy.

[00:34:14]uh and um uh I think at this point you know as I said at the outset um I I I I would like to echo Mount Zong. He said there is great confusion under the heavens and the situation is excellent meaning that confusion provides opportunities for maneuver. Uh but I don't really see the maneuver here uh on our side or indeed on any side. Iran is also trapped.

[00:34:45]It can't uh uh forego the gains it's made in this war.

[00:34:51]Um and so you can't you can never gain at the negotiating table what you lost on the battlefield. That's a basic principle of unfortunately of uh human behavior. And um so here we are.

[00:35:10]Well, you mentioned that uh many of the Gulf states are probably looking to adjust to take a a new or a different position towards Iran after this war is done. And uh well, if you think if you're sitting in the Gulf States, you think the US position will be weakened after this war and the Iranian will be strengthened u for example by holding the straight of Moose. uh you know you can be as uh angry or you know uncomfortable with this realities as you will but to enhance your own security you do have to recognize and adjust to this reality. So if this is the direction things are going how do you and the US can't win this war and in any outcome the Iranian will essentially sit on the straight of m that means they can put a higher toll on countries who do put sanctions on them who do host the US bases. Sure. How how do you >> sorry >> they can retaliate?

[00:36:08]>> Yes.

[00:36:08]>> In a very effective way to any uh actions taken against them. This is an improvement in their position that is fundamental. And you're absolutely right. In the end, uh everybody in the region is going to have to adjust to new realities that have been created by this war. And they're very unfavorable to both Israel and the United States. Um I note that the Gulf Cooperation Council which of course has six members uh one of them Oman is now an apparent partner with Iran in the management of the straight of Hormuz and sharing the revenues from the straight of horm.

[00:36:49]Um I should note that Iran um Oman unlike the other five members of the GCC uh is not um terribly wellendowed with energy sources and its citizens actually have to work for a living. Um and they do and they are the backbone of of uh many of the um uh other other countries in the Gulf's economies. Um but uh the UAE has held out officially. It participated in the attack on Iran. We now know it took independent action. Um it has stuck close to Israel. Israel actually came to its aid with the installation of the Iron Dome system um and presumably with other assistance. Um and um so uh if you look at the Gulf Cooperation Council um you have uh two countries the UAE and Bahrain which are part of the Abraham Accords uh four that are not. Uh Oman is cooperating with Iran apparently. Um Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar uh want the United States to stand down uh UAE remains vengeful but even it has apparently joined its uh fellow members of the Gulf Cooperation Council in demanding that the war in asking Donald Trump to end the war. uh you have the complication of the Hajj which is going on uh two million or so people in Mecca um that will end at the end of this week and um at that point one of the arguments against military action um will be reduced um so uh but it's pretty clear that the Gulf Cooperation Council is split which is another uh uh result of this war uh it's aggravated the tensions between Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. Um uh so um very as I said there's a great deal of confusion. No one knows how it will settle out in the end. Um uh but um it's whatever happens, Iran is not going to be uh disarmed.

[00:39:20]It's likely going to be nuclear or uh maybe it will be like the Israelis. It will be u you know uh not officially nuclear but actually nuclear.

[00:39:32]Um some sort of plausible deniability kept in there. Um um the the uh the the new security architecture in the Gulf will have the backing of China and Russia, not the United States. Uh and um so this is a geopolitical earthquake that has been unleashed. It's not just the damage to the international economy, but geopolitically this is very profound in its effects. And finally, I would note that, you know, Israel is obviously squirming, which is why Donald Trump has now demanded that Saudi Arabia, the Turks, Turkey, and others um sign the Abraham Accords.

[00:40:23]Well, Gutter, too. And uh but why should they um you know um this is um an Israeli effort obviously to to uh snatch some sort of victory from the jaws of defeat.

[00:40:41]Um I don't think it will work because um Israeli behavior does not endear Israel to anyone at present.

[00:40:53]Just as a yeah last question given how significant this defeat is. I mean if you go back to wars such as Vietnam it had a profound impact on the US psychologically in terms of the willingness to engage in similar follyies and you know give it a few decades at least. But but what will the world look like for the United States after this? I mean what are the options of the US the possible I mean futures depending what paths they take? Well, Vietnam is a very different um uh situation and outcome uh for the simple reason that Vietnam incurred in the in the context of a bipolar world order at the Cold War. Um and uh while the United States was humiliated by Vietnam um and as you said it had profound effects within the United States uh other countries faced with a choice came the Soviet Union and the Soviet block versus the West and the United States didn't see that choice as anything that they uh you know and as a real choice. they they they stuck with the United States and the West. Uh and this is not the situation now. Um so uh I don't know. I mean it's pretty clear that uh this war, foreign wars generally, forever wars in particular are deeply unpopular in the United States. Donald Trump ran on a platform of ending them. Instead, he's initiated them.

[00:42:30]uh and um I don't think uh the American public in future is going to be willing to support any sort of uh further adventures of this kind. So the uh and I note that one of the consequences of the uh Iran war has been the dissolution of NATO. not completely, not formally, but uh you have members of NATO now denying uh the United States the use of their airspace or their bases. Uh you have publics that are um very turned off by both the United States and by Israel.

[00:43:11]you have uh the revelation that the bases in Europe for the most part are there not to defend Europeans against a mythical Russian um threat but to uh pro to provide quote lily pads unquote from which the United States can project power into West Asia. Um and it's projecting power into West Asia to do things that almost nobody in Europe approves. I mean some withhold criticism for various reasons, fears of being charged with anti-semitism, maybe residual guilt from the European Holocaust and and the collusion of not just the Germans but many others in uh in rounding up minorities um and killing them. Um uh so uh the United States will emerge from this uh with alliances that are greatly weakened if they continue to exist at all. Uh and with hedging by the major allies, Germany and Japan being the most notable uh examples of that. um with um uh the fabric of international law discredited uh and since international law will no longer provide any inhibition against aggression, every country will be engaged in an arms race uh trying to arm themselves for self-reliant defense. Um uh I think there will be countries that ask the United States to not just in the Gulf but elsewhere remove its physical presence from their territory. Um and uh uh you know there will be exceptions. I Poland for example seems to like having American forces on its territory.

[00:45:11]um and Germans are becoming more uh skeptical about the value of that uh as are Japanese. So um I think uh yeah the world is uh changing rapidly but you're open to all this with questions about you know the viability of the state of Israel and um this is a situation like um like that question which uh unfolds only with time. There's nothing instant about it very likely. So it will be like Hemingway's uh famous description of bankruptcy which happened gradually then suddenly um and uh that that is we're in a transformational period but we don't know what we're being transformed toward and we don't know what the pace of the transport transformation will be.

[00:46:07]Oh, well it should have been predictable things wouldn't stay the same. If you have a hegemonic world order after the cold war and this now comes to an end and replaced by many centers of power, it would be I guess uh yeah, naive to assume that the old alliance systems uh the old loyalties and interests that they would all somehow remain the same.

[00:46:32]So yeah, a turbulent time yeah appears to be coming. uh have any final thoughts before we wrap up?

[00:46:39]>> No, I think the I think the turbulence and the transition were indeed um not just predictable but predicted. um uh you know some of us saw that uh the world was changing um uh so it you know if you as you know I don't like the word >> multipar >> multipolar but you can say polyentric if you want um that comes closer to the to the truth I think u new regional orders are emerging new international order will emerged um the United Nations has and uh so deeply discredited and that um we will have to come up with some replacement uh for it. Um what the nature of that will be I don't know um I would say the European Union is not prospered in this environment either. Uh and um some question about the viability of that and we talked about the Gulf Cooperation Council. It seems to me that um uh the countries of Pacific Asia uh are all making their peace with China. Um and it's not a sphere of influence in the classic sense, but there will be difference to China.

[00:48:00]Maybe a bit like the traditional difference of countries in South America to the United States. uh even though we didn't as we did in the Caribbean and Central America intervene directly or issue orders to them um basically people be more respectful of China which is what the Chinese want. They don't want um uh they don't want Leenstrom. They don't want control. They just want more more difference, more respect. Um and uh I think uh it's uncertain to me how India will evolve uh because uh India has been hegemonic in its region and remains so in many respects. This generates animosity toward it.

[00:48:50]Central Asia um looks to me as though it's slowly drifting eastward.

[00:48:57]uh but um obviously some of the countries like Kazakhstan are looking for openings to other parts of the world. We're seeing other countries like Turkey reemerge as independent actors with some influence. Um uh I don't know what happens in Europe. We've talked about that a good deal.

[00:49:19]uh there has to be some kind of meeting of the minds between Moscow and Brussels or the main capitals of Western Europe.

[00:49:27]Um if there's to be peace and prosperity uh many many questions no answers is my summary.

[00:49:38]>> Well that's a constant or I think in the human experience is the assumption that the present uh the presence is permanent. that is through all of history we have massive changes all the time but somehow we always think that the the way things are now that's how they will remain >> keeping in mind it was only been 35 years since the Soviet Union collapsed it's you know which was a very different world so the idea that this was the end station um yeah >> no history has not ended >> no even Fukuyama agrees with this now so anyways uh ambassador always such a great pleasure and uh always very educational to speak with you. So, thank you.

[00:50:21]>> Well, I enjoy speaking with you. Um and I hope uh together we make a little bit of sense about a very confusing situation, but u uh I confess to being perplexed.

[00:50:34]>> Yeah. Uh like most of us. Thanks again.