Latest Polling Puts Reform & Conservatives Neck & Neck

追加: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]Bo, have you seen Have you heard? We've got some brand new polling.

[00:00:05]>> Okay, >> it's very interesting actually to be honest. Um, just just conversation really about new polling came out from Lord Ashcroft polling.

[00:00:14]>> Um, showed Conservatives tying Reform UK at 21%.

[00:00:20]>> What is this specifically? Sorry.

[00:00:23]>> Westminster voting intention.

[00:00:26]>> Huh?

[00:00:27]>> Huh? Really? Yeah.

[00:00:30]>> Yeah. Really? Okay.

[00:00:32]>> It's interesting, isn't it?

[00:00:34]>> It is actually interesting. So, >> uh, conducted online from May 21st to 26 by Conservative peer Lord Ashccraftoft.

[00:00:42]>> Um, Ashccraftoft does it does do polling, right? Like Ashcraftoft polls are just a thing. And actually, in fairness, they're fairly well respected.

[00:00:51]Like they're fairly well regarded. I think the last few haven't been that great, but by and large they do okay if I remember rightly. Is that about right?

[00:01:01]>> Yeah. I mean, just before we go on, I'd say people who might not know Lord Ashcraftoft is a an interesting fellow.

[00:01:08]Of course, he's conservative. Of course, he's a conservative hit. Um, he fell out he hated Cameron, didn't he? I think it was Lord Ashcraftoft that first wrote a book or leaked that David Cameron had done something untoward with a severed pig's head whilst in university that came out of Lord Ash Dashov. Lord Dashcraft's got a giant collection of Victoria Crosses personal collection.

[00:01:35]>> Um he's a very very rich influential person. Some hate his guts. I'm not a fan of him. I wouldn't say I hate his guts. Far from it. Not a fan. But some people hate him. Um but yeah, his polling is usually to be to be fair um is usually reasonable, right? It's not just pure Tory um uh propaganda. So >> yeah, it's not pope.

[00:02:00]>> If Yeah, it's not pure cope, right? So if he's saying that, then it's probably at least something close to being true.

[00:02:09]M >> and the the thing that jumps out at me there is not well it's both that the Conservatives aren't doing as terribly as I thought they might >> reform is.

[00:02:21]>> Yeah. How low reform is.

[00:02:23]>> It's real bad.

[00:02:24]>> That they're they're hemorrhaging support, aren't they?

[00:02:28]>> Yeah. Yeah. Really really really bad.

[00:02:31]Genuinely bad. So basically uh as as this little abbreviation sort of summary says uh reform steady greens dropping two points um conservatives and labor slight gains. So the projection is based on uh these figures envisioning dramatic seat shifts under the first pass of the post. Conservatives at 180 reform at 155 Greens at 81. That puts them on par with what the Lib Dems basically. Well, actually over what the Lib Dems were. I think they were on like 70 odd, weren't they? Um at the last one or they got 70 odd now. Something like that. Anyway, uh and Labor down to 77.

[00:03:25]>> Brutal.

[00:03:28]>> Brutal. Now you get the normal sort of cope here anyway. You know, there's um reformer dismissing it because they're like, well, Ashcross, you know, a Tory, he's got Tory ties. It's like, well, you don't really know your history then. You don't really know much >> about the guy then, to be fair.

[00:03:45]>> Um, I just think it's interesting. I just thought it was worthwhile having a conversation. You see this here, right?

[00:03:50]Look, I mean, that's that's a pretty major thing.

[00:03:54]>> Yeah.

[00:03:56]>> Yeah.

[00:03:56]>> Again, let this [ __ ] James uh bender uh here um reform um member of reform apparently a patriot but absolutely been a complete bullag uh pole puts us equal with Tories panic oh it's Lord Ash Lord Ashcraft calm is that is that like an own do you big brain take there James Benderit um yeah Ashro's pretty good to be fair >> yeah is >> of course he is a Tory obviously but his po it's like a isn't you gov um Nardim's Wahari dude >> it was and then it he he got bought out I think it sold his share but yeah it was his yeah >> right so okay this is it's a bit coach to say oh no it's Lord Ashraftoft so absolutely can't be trusted no not really an element of that I' I'd concede a small a small element of that basically no basically it's likely to reflect reality to a large degree I would say um but okay I mean the reform people reform cards all over the shop are basically [ __ ] themselves because their window their window of time for Nigel to have won a big majority if not has closed is closing Yeah. Yeah.

[00:05:26]Massively.

[00:05:27]>> It Yeah. That that sort of >> his ability to win a big big majority.

[00:05:33]It's just not going to happen now, is it? It's just not going to happen >> because he was too weak. He was too pathetic. He needed to have been populist. He needed to have been nationalist or nivist. He needed to have come out and said the opposite of what he said to Steve Edgington about Islam.

[00:05:50]He needed to talk about remigration. He needed to not flood his ranks of counselors with foreign people. He needed to. If he'd come out and just been really hardline like RER or harder line than RER, swear to God, they'd be polling at 40, 50, 60% and he would be prime minister in waiting, no questions asked. But he did. He [ __ ] himself >> when confronted with that opportunity to do that and be that.

[00:06:18]>> Yeah. But >> a coward. Coward. Well, yeah, but not only that, Bo, you're asking him to be something he's not, >> right? You're asking him to do all these things which fundamentally actually doesn't agree with.

[00:06:31]>> As he says himself, he has spent his life containing people to the right of him, >> destroying right-wingers.

[00:06:39]>> Yeah.

[00:06:40]>> From the horse's mouth himself. He has said it himself. So, >> you know, it's just one of those things.

[00:06:46]But it's interesting, isn't it? cuz that this is it does follow with the direction of travel which seemingly will have to happen if either of them have any hope tries and reform of being in government is that they're going to have to be a pact between them that they would have to work together. Uh but in this comically Nigel would be Kemy's [ __ ] >> Yeah. In a coalition government, if you look at the Kle Cameron years, it really does matter which leader gets to be the prime minister because they will be the dominant party. In fact, it's happened a number of times even in the 20th century. Uh they will be the dominant partner and when push comes to shove, they will largely get their way.

[00:07:34]>> So yeah, if it was Kem is prime minister in coalition with Nigel.

[00:07:39]Yeah, but we'll see what actually happens.

[00:07:44]But both the Conservatives and Reform, particularly reform, have said all along very very very vehemently that they would never enter coalition with Tories. Wait, >> not >> Wait.

[00:07:57]>> Okay.

[00:07:58]>> Um, they've said that all along during during the TIC years and everything. um until quite recently >> where you might have seen you might have seen uh a few Tories like Kemy's position is no never but you might have seen Jacob Reese Moog starting to talk about it he's not an MP at the moment but okay um you might have seen various other reform people under Farage make noises about it because it's just starting to look like that's the only path for them to be in government at all.

[00:08:32]M.

[00:08:33]>> So go on. What were you going to say about that?

[00:08:35]>> No, I was going to say just that even Nigel said it. He He didn't say that.

[00:08:38]Yeah. He was like, "No, no, it wouldn't be it wouldn't be it wouldn't be something I want." No, no, no, no, no.

[00:08:44]And they were like, "But it's not a no then." And he was like, "Well, I I certainly wouldn't want to do it." And that was it. And it's like, "Yeah, you [ __ ] know you're going to have to then."

[00:08:52]>> Yeah. There you go.

[00:08:53]>> Current trajectory, you know, you're going to have to.

[00:08:56]>> Okay. So I mean hopefully it's a bit of a long shot still isn't there but hopefully restore will be too big to fail. It will be >> it it will become restore can become a government entirely in its own right and that the conservatives and reform are just stepped over entirely stepped over.

[00:09:20]Well, everyone, all comers, the Lib Dems, the Greens, Labor, Conservative Reform, all of them are stepped over >> by the agenda of mass remigration and that millions must go >> because it's the only real route to saving our country, isn't it? The rest really are, including reform, a containment project in order to baffle and defeat nivist interests.

[00:09:49]It's it's it's pretty much as simple as that, isn't it?

[00:09:52]>> Yeah.