Israel-Iran War: Netanyahu 'Blackmailing' US President Trump? Former Diplomat KP Fabian Speaks

Añadido: 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]Dear friends in India and abroad listening to SW news, it is my pleasure to be with you to speak about the war on Iran, its origin, its implications.

[00:00:23]Why did President Trump join the war started by Prime Minister Netanyahu with such enthusiasm and how Prime Minister Netanyahu was able to convince President Trump that it would be a cakewalk and now you know all that they planned have not worked out.

[00:00:50]So we have to figure out why did the war occur? What is the current state of the war? How has the rest of the international community responded to it?

[00:01:02]India's policy and the predicament India finds itself in [music] [music] Now coming to this war I believe one of the important things to understand is that uh it's an asymmetric war by an asymmetric war I mean for example the Vietnam war as we all know it lasted almost 20 years in fact President Trump gave the exact you 19 years x days.

[00:01:53]Now, at one point, there were over 500,000 American troops in Vietnam.

[00:02:02]And yet, what happened on the 30th of April 1975 is to be not to be forgotten.

[00:02:15]On that day, the American ambassador was rescued by a helicopter which landed on the balcony of the embassy.

[00:02:30]Earlier he had [clears throat] collected the flag which he had hoisted.

[00:02:37]So touching to the flag he got into the helicopter. So that was that. So by an asymmetrical war we mean a war where the resources military, economic, diplomatic are not matched between the belligerent and in an asymmetrical war the weaker side is not destined to lose.

[00:03:08]Now coming to what is now going on.

[00:03:12]It's my view of course I could be wrong that uh President Trump is playing poker. You know he goes on claiming things which are not true. For example, the other day he said that thanks to the blockade, Iran will lose 500 million a day from not being able to export oil.

[00:03:45]Now the price of oil at that time was about $100 a barrel.

[00:03:55]So $500 million meant Iran was exporting 5 million barrels. Well, the fact is Iran was exporting anything between 1.9 and 2.1 million barrels. So let's simplify it. 2 million barrels. Now that would mean Iran was getting $200 million.

[00:04:24]But did President Trump say $500 million?

[00:04:28]So his arithmetic is not always right.

[00:04:32]nor is his logic because the poker player depends for his success on you know in India we used to say the ICS poker face project confidence even when your cards are rather [clears throat] low.

[00:04:52]Now Iran is playing chess [snorts] and as we all know the chess game went to Europe through Iran and the word checkmate comes from shamat a Persian word sha sh h the king.

[00:05:14][clears throat] But there is another concern and that is that perhaps President Trump believes that Iran also is paying playing playing poker.

[00:05:32]So look at the situation. Now the second aspect I should like to draw your attention is the relationship between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump.

[00:05:51]As we all know on the 28th of February it was Netanyahu who started the attack and Trump joined almost immediately.

[00:06:06]In fact, Secretary of State Marco Rubio had said Israel was going to attack in any case with or without our permission.

[00:06:17]So we had to join because once Israel attacks Iran, Iran will attack America also. Now the last part of that logic is slightly doubtful. Anyway, [laughter] so coming to the equation, let me draw your attention.

[00:06:37]President Trump arranged for a ceasefire in Gaza last year in October.

[00:06:45]It appeared that he had imposed it on Netanyahu. Correct. But as we all know, Netanyahu went on violating it.

[00:06:57]Now coming to another ceasefire, the one between Lebanon and Israel. We know the story how Trump made the two countries to to speak at the ambassador's level.

[00:07:14]They had not spoken to each other for the last so many decades and then the ceasefire was announced.

[00:07:21]Well, what has happened?

[00:07:24]Netanyahu has consistently, I repeat, consistently violated ceasefire.

[00:07:32]Trump of course once said that he would order quote unquote order Israel to abide by it. But Netanyahu couldn't care less. So the point I wish to make is in the equation between Netanyahu and Trump, as the saying goes, the tail is wagging the dog. Israel, the largest recipient of American military aid, diplomatic protection.

[00:08:06]Israel is dictating to America what its policy in the region should be. Let us remind ourselves that this has not been always the case. The tail wagging the dog. In 1982 when Israel started bombing Beirut, Manahim Begin was the prime minister.

[00:08:32]The president of the United States was Reagan.

[00:08:36]He got onto the phone and asked Bean, "Why are you committing the Holocaust?"

[00:08:43]Well, Bean was scandalized because his own family had died in the Holocaust.

[00:08:49]But Reagan continued, "I want you to stop it. Stop it now." Well, within 10 minutes, the Israeli cabinet met and they stopped.

[00:09:02]So that is the story. Now why is Trump so beholden to Netanyahu? Well, I have a theory but it's only a theory because I have no evidence and the theory or the hypothesis and that is that you we all know about the Epstein files. Well, you know, if you really look at the Epstein operations, it is clear that most probably a foreign intelligence agency was behind it.

[00:09:38]If so, it is possible that it was Mossad.

[00:09:42]If so, MSAD has a full file just as the Department of Justice in the United States has.

[00:09:52]And that department has been releasing the file most reluctantly under pressure from the Congress and with redactions.

[00:10:03]Now the problem with redaction redactions is that you know when you redact something there is a trace that you have redacted it.

[00:10:11]Now there are portions in the file which might embarrass Trump if it's only a hypothesis.

[00:10:22]The Mossad has the technology to delete without leaving a trace.

[00:10:29]Well, that will be a big thing for Trump. So the question is in plain English has Trump been blackmailed by Netanyahu?

[00:10:41]You do not know the answer but we have reason to suspect.

[00:10:46]Now let us move on to another and that is you know America is celebrating its 250th anniversary July the 4th 1776.

[00:11:03]Well, in any democracy, as king Charles reminded the Congress the other day, the executive power has to be there have to be balance and checks. Now, [clears throat] let's expand a little on that. That doctrine was first initiated by Montescu 17th century early 18th century French philosopher. He said that the state has three organs. The legislative, the executive and the judiciary. And these three organs should not encroach upon the provin the territory of the other.

[00:11:46]Neither of them should encroach and that if any such encroachment takes place well there should be correction. In other words, if the executive exceeds it powers like you know declaring war without taking consent from the Congress imposing tariffs the rest of the world without consulting or without getting the consent from the Congress then the presidency should be checked by the other two. Now in the case of tariffs, the Supreme Court did check Trump but after such a long delay and that in such a what shall I say manner which is not exactly clear because now Trump is likely to resort to other rules and legislation pieces to do the same thing, you know.

[00:12:48]So that is leg that is the leg the judiciary is weak. Now the the legislative well it's even weaker because Trump has the Republican party has a majority in the House as well as in the Senate.

[00:13:07]But the other day the Senate in the Senate a Democratic Party resolution to restrain Trump was defeated 214 2213 and that two with one Democrat voting against the resolution and a Republican voting for. So it's rather thin. So let me put it this way. Since the midterms are approaching, unless Trump changes course, he will be approaching his water law.

[00:13:52]Now let us look at the rest of the international community because just as the Montescu doctrine applies to any state, it should also apply to the international community. When a member state of the United Nations does something wrong, it is for the rest of the international community to take whatever action that is necessary to correct that member state.

[00:14:21]Now of course though United Nations article says that all member states are you know there is sovereign equality but we know that no real equality. So let us look at those who matter or should matter. Look at Europe. European Union plus UK. What have they done?

[00:14:46]Well, they did not join the war, but they have not come out with a strong position. They have failed to show moral clarity because attacking Iran while diplomatic negotiations were going on. While such negotiations [clears throat] were reaching a conclusion that was satisfactory to both sides, especially to Trump. In fact, you know the Omani foreign minister who mediated the talks at the Omani embassy in Geneva on the 27th of February. [snorts] He later came to Washington and briefed Vice President Vans.

[00:15:42]And the gist is that the two sides had agreed and that technical experts were due to meet in Vienna with the IAEA, International Atomic Energy Agency on technical matters because you know these two Steve Wkov and Krishna they are innocent of safeguards and other technical matters nuclear safeguards and other technical matters.

[00:16:12]Now on the 28th when the attack occurred the Omani foreign minister was went on air. There is a famous program face the nation and there he said in so many words that Iran had agreed to zero enrichment. I repeat zero enrichment.

[00:16:40]zero stockpiling.

[00:16:43]Third, down blending the enriched uranium. It has about, you know, 440 or 450 kg. And [clears throat] last but not the least, Iran shall never ever seek a nuclear weapon.

[00:17:01]Now, Iran had agreed to all that and uh and Trump was getting a deal better than Obama's. Though I should say that if the goal is to prevent Iran from making a weapon, Obama deal was absolutely good because since IA had full access to Iran's nuclear operations, there was no question of Iran's making a bomb. Iran has also signed the NPT. So that deal was good enough. Now Trump, you know, as candidate in 2016 said that it was a very foolish deed and all that. That is because at one point he was about to lose and he was going to withdraw. Then a man called Steve Bannon went to him and said, "No, no, I have got a recipe for success."

[00:17:57]And that recipe included attacking the Obama deal. And that is how it happened.

[00:18:03]In other words, Trump walked out of a deal which took care of America's interests visav this matter for personal reasons. In other words, you know, we read in political science textbooks, national interest is the basis for decision making in foreign policy. Well, it doesn't work that way. When it was Obama in the White House, it was in the it was in the national interest of the United States to have the JCPOA, join common plan of action. When Trump came there, it was no longer. In other words, the national interest is often decided by the ruling establishment.

[00:18:48]And it is uh possible for that establishment to confuse between its own interest and the national interest. not to come back. Trump could have then gone to town and told everyone that he had got a deal infinitely better than Obama's and that he was revoking sanctions and his family business could have made a penny by doing business with the sanctions free Iran.

[00:19:22][snorts] Why didn't he do that? Again we have to go back to the equation between Netanyahu and Trump.

[00:19:30]So I will not say more about that. So the international community including the European Union, Japan, Korea bricks, the global south have failed.

[00:19:49]China and Russia too have failed but much less than others. At least they have come out with statements.

[00:19:57]In fact, the Chinese have said it is the law of the jungle that Trump has resorted to and Putin also, President Putin also has spoken out. Now, let me make the last point.

[00:20:13]India's position.

[00:20:17]Well, the prime minister Modi was there two days before. [clears throat] Now, when he landed there at the Bengurian International Airport, there were eight super tankers there. Super tankers are for refueling midair.

[00:20:36]Well, eight of them at the airport and [clears throat] two 747 aircraft unmarked.

[00:20:45]Now it is generally known that an unmarked aircraft is used to transport embassy personnel or embassy goods and naturally the super tangaration for war. Now you do not know whether Prime Minister Modi was told by Prime Minister Netanyahu [clears throat] about his plans. He may have or he may not have because it is too sensitive you know. So he may not have but Prime Minister Modi did pledge [snorts] support for Israel and he said I'm quoting him India stands with Israel firmly with full conviction in this moment and beyond.

[00:21:39]In this moment and beyond.

[00:21:42]Why did he use the last word beyond? Was he anticipating something more and a little more? What was happening? You know, he said in this moment, what is happening? Israel had committed a genocide in Gaza.

[00:22:00]Of course, there was sort of a ceasefire, but Israel was continuing the genocide by not permitting humanitarian material to reach the people of Gaza.

[00:22:17]Israel was encroaching [clears throat] or continuing with encroachment in the West Bank.

[00:22:25]In other words, Israel was violating international law.

[00:22:31]And so in this moment, quote unquote, when Israel was violating the international law, the Indian prime minister is expressing [clears throat] his firm support.

[00:22:47]Rather enigmatic, isn't it?

[00:22:50]Now the last point sorry for this is that on the one hand government of India especially the petroleum and natural gas minister HS Puri has said we have no problem we have taken care of everything we have enough petrol we have got natural gas there'll be no problem now his statement was there in today's newspapers say the Indian express the same newspaper on the same page carried another story that the price of the LPG cylinder commercial use had gone up by almost 1,300 rupees and that the menu prices will go up by 5 to 20%.

[00:23:44]and that some iteries might be closing down and that there was fear of job losses. In other words, why can't the government of India share with us with some transparency what is happening then you know it is not government of India's fault that there is shortage because it is because of international events and the government has done its best because I myself you know had faced the situation 1990 when Iraq was invaded sorry Iraq invaded Kuwait but you know at that time I was on the uh sort of board of the IOC Indian oil corporation and we used to meet and make sport purchases so the government has done its best and nothing is wrong nothing is wrong with what the government has done what is wrong is with government statements because when you do something when you say something which is not credible well when you say something which is true well that may not be believed by the people. Let me stop here. Thank you.