US-Iran Ceasefire COLLAPSES as Lebanon ERUPTS | Elijah Magnier

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]But because Benjamin Netanyahu has failed to defeat Hamas and eliminate it, that was his objective. Defeat and eliminate Hezbollah, impose a regime change in Iran. And this is what he said on threea B cases, then he's actually now caught and he needs a victory. Where this victory can come from, Donald Trump. But there is something more subtle than what Donald Trump said on the surface. Basically, what Donald Trump is doing, he's blackmailing his own allies. This war on Iran at the beginning of the decline of the US Empire.

[00:00:44]Welcome everybody. I'm Lyanna Petroa with a new episode of World Affairs and Context. Today I'm very pleased to welcome back to the program Elijah McNair. Elijah is a political analyst and a veteran war zone correspondent with over 35 years of experience covering the Middle East and North Africa. I have to say that Elijah has been my go-to source on the Middle East.

[00:01:07]He specializes in real time reporting on politics, strategic and military planning and terrorism. Elijah's in-depth knowledge of Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan, and Syria make his writings mandatory reading. So, make sure that you follow Elijah's reporting on his site as well as on his ex or Twitter. I will link both in the description below. Elijah, welcome back to the program. It's so great to see you again.

[00:01:34]>> Lena, thank you for having me. It's a pleasure and thank you for this wonderful introduction.

[00:01:39]>> Of course, it's a pleasure to host you.

[00:01:42]Um, let's start with the fragile state of the US Iran ceasefire. It appears to be hanging by a thread quite literally.

[00:01:49]The United States has broken the ceasefire. actually over the weekend when it carried out strikes on Iranian Bandara bus port and other sites across Iran. Of course, the Trump administration claimed that the initial US strike uh was actually meant to preserve the ceasefire and that actually reminded me about George Orwell. Even Orwell would have been surprised to hear that. But over the past 24 hours, there have been new strikes on Iran. Of course, Iran responded as well and um we know that IRGC shot down a US MQ9 drone over Iranian airspace as well over the past 24 hours. Would you share with us your understanding of where the US Iran ceasefire stands? And is this war actually turning into a low inensity conflict?

[00:02:44]>> There are many points you've raised here. So first of all, the ceasefire is holding and it is not really holding in a real sense of the terms, but both sides agree that there is no really war and return to the intensity of the war as it was in the first 40 days. the um particular event today when Senkcom really spoke about an Iranian attack and uh uh the Iran Iran ballistic missiles on Kuwait but on the what the Iranian defined as the source of attack against the Iranian shore and against Iranian assets. So the Iranians are very much aware where everything is starting.

[00:03:37]Certainly they know that America is not firing missiles and drones and uh uh artillery from America but from the Middle East and its bases and certainly not from the sea because the distance from Kuwait to Iran is much shorter to Bander Ababas and it is actually the shortest distance between all the Gulf countries and Bander Ababas. Therefore, the Iranians are very much on alert and they want to keep the tit for tat.

[00:04:10]Otherwise, the Americans will impose a new rule of engagement where the Americans can fire and Iranians do not retaliate and the Americans will increase. And this is exactly the Israeli style in Lebanon and elsewhere.

[00:04:28]If you if one side is attacked and doesn't retaliate immediately in kind then the other side believe that this is a kind of a weakness then it exceeds the first attack with a major second attack and a third and a fourth. So that has been established today and I think both sides understood the exchange of messages that they need to keep the situation under control. Now, if this is going to lead to a permanent ceasefire, well, actually the answer is no because of the framework. And the framework is not an agreement, is not a deal. It's just a paper with 14 points that both sides agreed to sit and talk about and implement the minimum which means the first point where the ceasefire and the end of the war is imposed on Israel in Lebanon. This is something that the Iranians are not compromising on and the Israelis reject completely. This is why Donald Trump said last week he will signed in uh on Sunday and today Axio that leaked that information in the past saying that there is a ceasefire about to be signed and it was not signed and is doing it again and saying there is a signature of a the end of the conflict when the Israelis are advancing pushing more troops in the south of Lebanon destroying and attacking two major capital in the south of Lebanon that is T and Natier uh ordering 19 villages to be displaced internally today. So we're talking about dozens of villages and uh tens of thousands of people forced to uh be relocated and it's uh uh it's an illegal uh displacement and collective punishment of the population. Now, Donald Trump cannot face Benjamin Netanyahu on this point and his minister uh Bing said Israel will not accept Cha which mean that Donald Trump will not sign it and if he does and keeps in between the line the the right of Israel to defend itself which means attack at will any time then there is no deal between the US and Iran.

[00:07:02]And then also there is another point that are the frozen assets. Is Donald Trump going to release 12 and then 10 a total of $24 billion when he is harshly criticizing Barack Obama for releasing $10 billion of Iranian frozen money that are more than 100 billion? Again, the answer is no. Is he going to lift the sanctions? The answer is no. So if he's lifting the blockade and allowing Iran to receive fees under different title so uh the Iranian can say services like the case of the phosphorus. Yes, that is a possibility. Did that going to be accepted by Donald Trump? There are so many complicated that Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu created 85 days ago by starting an illegal war on Iran that they don't know how to keep uh a a different a way or to invent a way to come out of all this u uh dilemma that they put themselves in thinking that it will end in 3 days by the fall of the ruling system in Iran and it didn't. So it's really basically they are in a vicious circle. They don't know how to come out. They don't know how to uh harm Iran uh to a point to achieve their objective. They don't recognize that they failed with all their objectives and they want to keep a state of no war, no peace. Over the past weeks, I've seen multiple videos of Israel just simply destroying entire villages in Lebanon.

[00:08:47]And you've mentioned South Lebanon briefly, but I would I think I think it would be great to focus on on this issue because it's central to the um to to the conflict in the Middle East, of course, as well as Gaza is. Um, but the the Trump administration previously agreed to restrain Israel when it comes to uh carrying out strikes on Lebanon on destroying civilian infrastructure in Lebanon. Um, and and it, you know, he either couldn't do it or chose not to do it, not to restrain Israel. So, the situation in South Lebanon is clearly escalating. Um, Elijah, what is Israel seeking to achieve in Lebanon? and and what is actually going on in South Lebanon at the moment.

[00:09:36]>> Let's take the Israeli media. The Israeli media acknowledged that Benjamin Netanyahu has failed on all front.

[00:09:44]According to the Israelis, Hamas is still in Gaza. Israel is still bombing Hamas. A target assassinating people, commanders, but also civilians.

[00:09:56]This is where the Israelis mix the civilian and the military target to say whether we're hiding behind civilians and the same rhetoric when the Israelis said we killed 20,000 of Hamas but we end up killing 80,000 civilians.

[00:10:14]So this is the Israeli narrative again. The Israeli media saying where the Israeli army is acknowledging the incapability to disarm Hezbollah unless the Israeli army occupy the entire country Lebanon and go house by house to disarm Hezbollah and that is actually unfeasible. They've tried in 1982 and they failed whenah was not as organized and experienced. Therefore, the uh situation of Benjamin Netanyao in relation to Iran is not better. He started the war by saying we will uh remove the Iranian nuclear pro program definitely completely from Iran and now they're negotiating about the 60% enrichment uranium. He said that we will not accept um the Iranian missile program and we will accept that Iran has missiled within 300 to 500 kilometers enough to bomb the Arab countries but not Israel and now they renounce on that point. They also said we will cut the head of the state they mean Iran not to supply weapons and finance to Hezbollah and also that failed. So the Israelis are telling uh their people, well actually the problem is in a leadership that is unfit for ruling and this leadership is facing an election of Dignesset in September where there is an election of a new prime minister going to happen through after the Nesset and in November there will be a new prime minister. This is what is the dilemma of Benjamin Netanyao. is trying to achieve something that he's failing all the time. So what he's doing killing civilians. Why is he doing that? The answer is simple.

[00:12:13]For him he believed that target assassination creates a fulcloric reaction from the Israeli society that is used to killing and war mongering now with more than 70% supporting the war and because they sit and watch how Gaza is destroyed they talk about Lebanon to inflict more pain on the civilian population so they get rid of Hezbollah and We're talking getting rid of Hezbollah. We're talking about 40% of the Lebanese population, several millions. How you can get rid of them? There's a total ignorance or a a call for something impossible to achieve when Hezbollah is embedded within the population and has an embedded sovereignty because it's part of the government and the parliament and also the social the daily social life. So this is again um impossible to achieve.

[00:13:15]So Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to inflict more pain on the Lebanese population to force Hezbollah to surrender. Now what he failed to understand is first Hezbollah doesn't see uh the casualties and the destruction as losses but sacrifices.

[00:13:35]It's an ideological non-state actor that looks completely different from our criteria or the western criteria or the usually classical military approach to the military outcome of a war. Secondly, Benjamin Netanyahu helped Hespollah to overcome the casualties by from day one ordering the displace of all the civilians from the south of Lebanon and the Bea Valley concentrating more than 1.3 million people in Beirut. Now that we will come to that. Therefore the now they are free to fight without being concerned about the civilian casualties of their own people. However is maintaining a discipline fighting against the Israeli army that is actually we know from Gaza it is the most immoral army in the world killing Lebanese civilians but not. So if we listen to what the Israel is telling us that they've killed so far two to three commanders. Of course they killed several militants but these are not 3,200 Hezbollah so far at the Lebanese health ministry announced and there are more than 95% civilians more than 10,000 wounded civilians. Therefore he doesn't care really. is trying to inflict pain and in return is not taking on itself the job to defeat Israel. It acknowledges that Israel is a powerful enemy. It isah is not there to defeat Israel but to inflict pain and accumulative pain where the Israelis would say well if every day we have a few casualties and we have a destruction of few uh vehicles or bulldozers then throughout the weeks and the month and the years because this is what Israel has no intention to withdraw from Lebanon. And along these years, the accumulation will be big enough for Israel to say, well, actually, it's not a very good idea to stay in Lebanon. So we we uh it's it's a a fight between an elephant and uh a small insect that is bothering this elephant every single day and night to make sure that this elephant is not sleeping and it is really not feeling comfortable where it's staying. But it's still the size of an elephant that is Israel and a size of a small insect that is still capable of bothering the Israeli uh all might military apparatus and making its life hell. According uh to the UN charter article 51 that is gives the Lebanese the right to defend themsel against an occupation force.

[00:16:46]This week, Trump, President Trump said something quite shocking and I would like to share the quote here. He said, quote, "If Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan do not sign on to the Abraham Accords, we're not going to move forward with the Iran deal. Those countries owe it to us." End of quote. What precisely do these countries owe to Israel here?

[00:17:13]because that is serving the interests of Israel, not the United States. And and and Trump is essentially saying that um Israel determines the course of the US Iran war here. Isn't that right?

[00:17:28]>> Well, it's it is, but it's more than that. First of all, the Israelis um the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said uh we are conducting this war because we have become a superpower and we do not need to go and talk to the Arabs. When the Arabs see our strength and power, they will come begging relationship with us. But because Benjamin Netanyahu has failed to defeat Hamas and eliminate it, that was his objective. Defeat and eliminate Hezbollah, impose a regime change in Iran. And this is what he said on threea b cases. Then he's actually now caught and he needs a victory. Where this victory can come from, Donald Trump. But there is something more subtle than what Donald Trump said on the surface. Basically, what Donald Trump is doing, he's blackmailing his own allies. And what he's saying that we will not accept a ceasefire with Iran if you do not normalize, it means we will attack Iran from your countries. So Iran retaliate against us in your countries. So you will suffer the damage because we are attacking Iran unless you do what we are saying.

[00:19:00]So that is a perfect excuse and the biggest reason of all for the Arab country to understand how damaging is to have a US base on their territory.

[00:19:17]This is what Donald Trump is offering the Arab is telling the Gulf countries actually to be our friend is lethal. And we go back to Henry Kissinger who said to be an a friend to be an enemy of the United States is bad, but to be a friend is really lethal. And in this case, I think it it fits perfectly well according to what Donald Trump said. Now we know Donald Trump would say anything and changes his mind several times per day or per sentence. But having said that, I think he will uh think about it again. Not himself, but the people around him will explain to him what that means. But then we see the seriousness of what he said when we hear Lindsey Graham saying exactly the same thing and inviting the Saudis to go and strike a deal and join the Abraham Accord deal with Israel when Saudi Arabia said we need a Palestinian states and then we have no problem in normalizing. But Benjamin Netanyahu said a Palestinian state over my dead body. So I think Donald Trump is really helping Iran to make a point here and saying to the Arabs, you really need to let go of the Americans because they are the source of danger to your national security.

[00:20:48]>> Absolutely. And there's been another interesting point that that Trump made uh toward Oman. Oman of course has played a key role as a mediator in the US Iran negotiations and it continues hosting talks between Washington and Thran um as it has in previous nuclear negotiations as well. Well, on May the 27th, Trump said, quote, "We're going to blow up Oman if they don't start behaving like everyone else." Now, could you help us unpack this because effectively Trump is is demanding as you said that Oman comply with Israel's uh requests and demands here?

[00:21:32]>> Well, just to remind the audience that Oman received Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife uh in the country, they have no problem with the Israelis. However, for Donald Trump to threaten Oman, a country, as you mentioned, very friendly to the US, extremely close to the UK, has been always collaborating on uh with the West and with the Gulf countries and Iran, playing um mediation role between these countries, considered very trustworthy by the Americans prior Donald Trump of course and Iran and the other Gulf countries. But again, this is another reason for Oman to join the Gulf countries and understand that actually the US presence in the Gulf needs to end. By saying this against the allies, the closest allies, the peaceful closest allies who always bought US weapons who always brought open the doors to all US and UK and foreign companies to come and invest and um prosper in the country made a deal with the west and consider uh themselves the closest allies of the west but in a peaceful way. It turned out that actually they are a card to be played on a on a table and to be disposed of.

[00:23:11]>> One major sticking point of course remains Iran's nuclear program and um Washington appears to be still demanding severe limits on uranium enrichment and missile capabilities while Iran insists that its civilian nuclear rights are non-negotiable as and they're not. They shouldn't be negotiable. Um, what are your thoughts on um, the United States demanding the destruction of what Trump calls nuclear dust and the possible transfer of the enriched uranium to either China or Russia? Do you think that's something that Iran will consider or is that off the table as well?

[00:23:52]>> It is completely off the table for simple reason.

[00:23:55]First of all, Iran is a signary of the nonprololiferation treaty. The MPT gives it the right to enrich uranium up to 93% or any percentage as long as it is monitored and not for military uh purposes. Therefore, there is no limit for the enrichment uranium. Secondly, suppose Iran is saying, well, I made the 60%, which is true, only as a leverage against the Israeli and American killing of Fak Khalil Zad, the director of the nuclear program. In 2020, they went to 20% and then to 60% when the Israelis, the Mossad and the CIA attacked the Natan's uh nuclear facilities and installed a bug that would have uh blown up the entire reactor had not Iran managed to contain it. Uh therefore Iran can say okay these 60% are are a leverage. We don't need them. But the first question is why deliver them to the US? Second, if they do deliver them to the US or to any other country, who guaranteed that the US will abide by the deal and will not revoke it as the same Donald Trump did in 2018? He is the one who destroyed the JCPOA and then said Barack Obama doesn't understand anything. This deal is off the table for him. There's no accountability and he can do whatever he wants. There's not one leader around the world who can guarantee the US behavior or offer himself China or Russia as a guaranteer to the US. What they do is they can say we keep your uranium of 60% and we will give it back to you if the US violate the deal. This is why the US refuses to have the 60% somewhere else because their bad intention is already present otherwise they should not be concerned first because there are the IAEA the inspectors there in Iran to monitor uh everything. I give you a very small example. When Donald Trump said all those working in the nuclear facilities, they have a name here with Muhammad half of them and another half is Ali. Which means that the IAEA had all the internet monitoring satellite connection to all the nuclear facilities watching everything happening there. Now, Donald Trump is telling us that the IAEA is passing on these films to the government of the US and others, of course, and that should not happen.

[00:26:58]Secondly, if the Americans have seen what's happening inside these reactors and the UN inspectors are there, then there's nothing to be afraid of. But suppose they need more guarantee then we have Tuli Gabat who's saying and keep saying well actually Iran is not making a nuclear bomb. Rafael Gi the director of the IAEA said exactly the same. There is no nuclear bomb. And Donald Trump is repeating the same lie. I am preventing Iran from having nuclear bomb. But even he went even worse. He's saying I'm preventing Iran from bombing America with a nuclear bomb. So suddenly Iran has a 10 km missile that can reach America and has already made all the nuclear weapon test and they have a nuclear warhead directed toward America that has thousands of other nuclear warhead and can really anniate Iran in minutes. So nothing really works even in the mind of the most naive person in the US or around the world unless someone has no clue and believes anything what the uh what Trump is saying and this is what exactly Benjamin Netanyahu said repeat things and someone end up will end up believing it. So for Iran to deliver to go back to your question and I'm sorry for taking so long for Iran to deliver the 60% uranium there is no guarantee and no trust. What is the mechanism that will offer be offered to Iran for it to say okay I will go forward and uh negotiate what we can do with the 60%. This is why the framework is a paper with 14 points that in my opinion will never be implemented as long as Donald Trump is in power.

[00:28:59]>> And as you mentioned, it's very difficult to imagine Iran finding a point that is good enough to to make a deal just because there's no trust. Um, and Iran has very little incentive to trust the Trump administration as you mentioned. And it goes back to Trump's first term when he unilaterally withdrew from the United uh withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal, the JCPOA, and now he promis he promises to stop the war in Lebanon. And then he changes his mind. Then he promises to transfer uh 12 billion dollars of Iranian money frozen in Qatar. And then Israel says, "Oh, no, we can't do it."

[00:29:39]And then Trump changes his mind, too.

[00:29:41]So, how is Iran able to even negotiate with the Trump administration under these con conditions? What do you think is the common ground that is being used to continue negotiations and to at least have theou in place?

[00:29:59]Diplomacy is another way of conducting a war is the art of the impossible and nobody ever removes the diplomacy off the table. It is there to try and create common ground between enemies uh when they fight and even between allies in this case between enemies.

[00:30:22]Now, the Iranians need to tell their people they're trying their best, but they cannot commit suicide and they cannot allow the Americans and the Israelis to achieve during negotiation, diplomatic negotiations, what they failed to achieve through military means. This is why the Iranians are very determined to receive fees for their services in the straight of homes that this illegal war has created because it was not the case before the war and to collect fees out of it for services.

[00:31:01]That will be the title because it's a international passage and um it it's a natural transit. Uh but Iran is using another law not the UNL clause even if the Iranians signed the UN clause 1982 but did not rectify it. On the contrary the Iranian government decided that it has the right to impose fees for services and this is what they're going to do. The Iranian will not give up on the enrichment uranium because it is in their head. They have the nuclear knowledge. If you take away the um uh the uranium, the enriched uranium of 20% or 60%, they still know how to do uh the same or even take it further if they need to. And if they really wanted to make a bomb, they had all the time in the world between June 2025 and February 2026 when they were certain that the Iran, the Americans and the Israelis will start another war on Iran. They just prepared for classical defense and they prepared for the card of the straight of hormones and Babel Mandib had things went well. But they did not need to use Babel Mandib to really create a a global uh economic crisis. So far we have a global economic crisis but at a smaller scale than would have been with the closure of the Babel mandib. So there's no trust but they can't give up on diplomacy.

[00:32:41]>> Very true. Um, Elijah, a recent report, and I'm sure you've seen it, indicates that it will take three years for the United States to replenish stockpiles of advanced weapons that uh were used in the Iran war. Three years. Um, now the United States also needs critical raw materials from China to produce its weapons. Trump seems to be in no position to continue the war, to restart the war. he might be thinking to carry out uh short-term strikes uh perhaps but even then that seems to be playing into Iran's favor because it has established deterrence during the first sort of phase of the war and now many people argue that by allowing the United States to transform this conflict into this low intensity city sort of warfare where both sides exchange fire, shoot down drones um and such. This actually benefits the United States. It really doesn't benefit Iran. What is your take on this current sort of no deal, no war but no peace, no deal but no escalation type situation and who does it benefit?

[00:34:02]>> Excellent question. First of all, if you look at the June 2025, Iran was taken by surprise.

[00:34:10]More than 40 leaders were killed in the first minutes and it took Iran 18 hours to retaliate.

[00:34:17]In February 2026, after the first wave of assassination, 10 minutes later, Iran retaliated and bombed uh nine countries at the same time, even if the Israelis and the Americans managed to kill this supreme leader and all the leaders who were with him meeting at the day the same day. So we see an organization in a way where every single province in every single place, every single missile unit knew what to do without the need to communicate with the command and control center. Which mean that Iran has created dozens of command and control centers with each one a specific task uh to execute immediately after the face the first hit. which mean that Iran was prepared between June 2025 to February 2026 and gathered a lot of experience to prepare for a war in the last 45 days. After the 40 days of war, Iran learned an awful lot. Even during the for the first 40 days of war, we have seen Iran changing the ballistic missile from the normal one they used to be fired on Israel to the blaster bomb ballistic missiles because they understood, the Iranians understood that actually this missile if intercepted above Israel, it will bring down dozens of small bombs to explode on Israel and if it is not intercepted it will be devastating. So in both cases the Iranians were manufacturing the same missile during the war under fire. Can you imagine how much Iran has learned during the last 45 days and what the Iranians have been doing to prepare for another war? Because I can tell you I am not more clever than the Iranians. They know perfectly well that there is no end of the war with Israel and with Donald Trump. Donald Trump still has 2 and a half years and this is not someone who likes to be humiliated. According to the New York Times, the first article that came out after the 40 days saying that Iran managed checkmate uh the United States and the German chancellor Merz said Iran has humiliated the United States and this is when Donald Trump went all furious and starting to insult the German uh chancellor for what he said. So you can be sure that first a war is not an advantage of anyone Iran, the United States or Israel. Second, the damage that United States has suffered from is immense. the uh uh Isra the US uh defense minister or war secretary said they have spent 29 billions on munition but he did not speak about the 50 $60 billion of all the bases destroyed by the Iranian in the Middle East. He did not speak about more than $100 billion of economic damage for the increase of price of the gasoline and all the other product that the Americans are paying.

[00:38:05]So there is a huge uh damage to the US economy not only to the bombs that the Americans uh have or no longer have or need to produce. And by the way, why would the Americans need bombs? Nobody is taking them seriously anymore because they failed to defeat a a country after 47 years of the maximum pressure more than 5,000 sanctions and they failed with the strongest army in the Middle East to submit this country. So who is afraid of the American? Yeah, Cuba perhaps because it's a small country. So Donald Trump doesn't need really to invest tens of billions of dollars to produce so many bombs to destroy Cuba.

[00:38:53]Iran is 1,640,000 square kilm 48,000 kilm but is are we talking about China here to confront China? China is laughing looking at the performance of the US and Israel against Iran. So the US represent a danger to small country. If they want to go to the Bahamas or to the seale or the Dominican Republican perhaps or attacked a small African country, yeah, he Donald Trump needs few bomb, but he doesn't need much cuz they're not going to fight him. But a country with an ideology and a determination to fight back and regardless the quantity of bomb he has, he's not going to be able to defeat.

[00:39:42]>> Absolutely. And maybe the last question for today, how does this war in its current state transform the security architecture um among the JCC states? Because it seems that this is a turning point for the world and certainly for the Middle East. Will the United States and Israel retain their right to bomb unaligned states at will? Or are we going to see more of a unity, perhaps at least some resemblance of an alignment among Arab and Muslim states to hedge their bets and to prevent another US interference?

[00:40:22]Well, the GCC understand today that Israel will bomb any Arab country like it has bombed Qatar without any warning and with the approval of the Americans even if Donald Trump waited 6 hours before coming out and saying I didn't know about it when SenCom is the one in command is the one who support the Israelis and allow the Israelis to fly from Israel to bomb on Qatar and they need refilling in the air. So SenCom is really that not that blind to see what was going on and to give the approval. The only way why the Americans said we have nothing to do with it is because the assassination the target assassination failed and they were embarrassed with Qatar. Not very much because actually Donald Trump doesn't care really. But the GCC today, they understand the need to have a deal with Iran and they understand the need to have a deal with Pakistan and with Turkey less with the United States.

[00:41:28]Doesn't mean they don't want the United States. On the contrary, they always afraid of a color revolution coming from the United States against their regimes.

[00:41:38]But the failure of the Israeli and the Americans to defeat Iran will mark the people of the Gulf and they will understand that actually the alliance with the Americans is not sacroantis and it's not really that advantageous and they can survive without it. It doesn't mean they will not at the moment and not as long as Donald Trump is there because they are afraid of him. It's unpredictable, narcissistic, and they don't know how he can harm them. Exactly like he said today and yesterday against Oman and GCC, threatening them to be bombed by Iran if they going don't go to the Abraham Accord. And before that, we nobody forgets how Donald Trump said that now the Prince Muhammad bin Salman, the crime, will have to kiss his ass.

[00:42:35]This is what he said. So this is the lack of respect he has toward the Arabs and the Arabs understand that very well.

[00:42:44]If that is said by someone who can defend them is something but someone who has uh watch all his bases destroyed was not able to defend himself and to defend the countries hosting them is another ball game. And I think the whole Middle East is going to start reorganizing itself. And I think this war on Iran is the beginning of the decline of the US empire from 1945 until 2026.

[00:43:16]This is the first beginning.

[00:43:19]>> Elijah, thank you so much for joining us and for such a fascinating conversation.

[00:43:24]I hope you come back for a new episode soon. I highly highly recommend following Elijah on X and also checking out his site. Become a subscriber. I will link it in the description below.

[00:43:34]Elijah, thank you so much for being here today.

[00:43:38]>> It's a pleasure. Thank you for having me, Lina.