Strong to severe weather likely impacting Central Texas | KXAN Weather Forecast (May 10)

Added: 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]The storms are on track to be moving into Central Texas here in the next few hours. So right now up toward the big country, there are several severe thunderstorm warnings. Look at all of the lightning strikes. That line of heavy rain and some strong winds cutting through San Angelo, even down towards the Edwards Plateau. I drew some arrows to show you the direction. There's even a tornado warning embedded in there, too. So all of this action will eventually be in the KXXV viewing area.

[00:00:30]I'd give it about 2 or 3 hours before we're going to have to really be keeping an eye on these storms. Clouds and radar, you'll notice a few puffy cumulus clouds, a few spot showers out toward College Station, but the 15 counties here at the KXXV viewing area are completely rain-free. So I'm going to show you two different computer models that I have access to, and this will try to give you a better idea of storm timing. So let's advance this till right around 7:00. Couple of thunderstorms firing up ahead of this cold front, but in these cold front setups, it's a line of some strong storms. So that line begins to move into Mason and San Saba.

[00:01:09]By around 8:00, slowly moving south and east. A rumble of thunder or two can form. If we can get several storms firing up ahead of this line of storms, I think it'll chew up some of that storm energy, meaning the main event could become weaker if we get more thunderstorms ahead of the cold front.

[00:01:30]another thing we'll have to watch in the coming 3 hours or so. By 9:00, this is approaching the lakes out toward Williamson County, Travis, Blanco, Gillespie County, and then some thunderstorms can't be ruled out east of I-35, although I do think the majority of the storms will be west of I-35 by around 9:00. 10:00, this is through the Austin area. This will be the main event for Austin, and then further east by around 11:00. by midnight this is clearing out and then there are some leftover spot showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. But not expecting rain at all for your work week. Uh when the sun comes up on Monday should be rain free.

[00:02:09]Computer model number two, this one is slightly weaker. So you'll already notice that the coverage is smaller than computer model number one. Still showing a clear trend through around 6:00. Not as much storms ahead of the cold front, but even so it looks quieter compared to computer model number one. There's still going to be some strong to severe thunderstorms, but this computer model runs also faster by 8:00 Austin getting some rain. That first model had 10:00 storms, this one is 8:00. And then seems to be some sort of re-strengthening further east of Austin as it taps into more of that moisture and storm fuel closer to the Gulf. So by 9:00 10:00 computer model number two is clearing out for the most part leftover showers.

[00:02:52]So this run is faster in storm arrival, smaller in coverage, and it looks to be less severe compared to that first run of data. Storm Prediction Center, they take into account a lot more of that data and current conditions and they're saying, "Hey, there's a level three out of five severe risk." Highest severe risk going to be north and west of Austin up toward Llano and San Saba.

[00:03:14]Level two out of five south and east of Austin itself. The specific storm threats winds are going to be the primary concern here, especially with these cold front storms that swing by.

[00:03:25]So right on the outer edge of that front, that's where 60 plus miles per hour, even up to 75 miles per hour winds, isolated 75 mile per hour winds, but still that would be hurricane force winds for context for you. So could see some power outages, that's what I have in mind. Maybe even some limbs of some dead trees and branches could be falling. So when thunder roars head indoors. Past 8:00 9:00, I would head indoors in the Austin area because those storms overnight are going to pack a punch. The good news, they clear out fast. We're going to have sunshine, high pressure ridging builds back in 80s to the 90s. And then it's just straight 90s starting Wednesday with a possible [snorts] low end scattered shower storm potential next weekend.