Monsoon Stalls Across India! 41% Rainfall Deficit Raises Alarm Over El Niño Impact

[00:00:00]Southwest monsoons are concerned, which has officially arrived over Kerala on 4th June, but it appears to have lost momentum after an encouraging start.

[00:00:10]Now, the slowdown has resulted in a significant rainfall deficit across the country, raising concerns for agriculture, water resources, and the overall monsoon season. Weather experts are attributing the delayed advance to a combination of global and regional weather factors, including the emergence of a strong El Niño in the Pacific Ocean.

[00:00:33]Now, the southwest monsoon, which marks the beginning of India's a crucial a 4-month rainy season, has hit a pause after making landfall over Kerala on 4th June.

[00:00:44]Now, the stalled progress of the monsoon has a sharply reduced rainfall across large parts of the country, and according to the Met Department, a nationwide rainfall between 4th June and 18th June stood at just 42.6 mm compared to the normal 72.2 mm for the period.

[00:01:05]And that translates into a 41% rainfall deficit, with the monsoon rains running nearly 40% below normal as of Wednesday.

[00:01:14]The Met Department has also said that the slowdown is being driven by a complex interaction of several atmospheric and oceanic systems. And these include disturbances over the Pacific Ocean, the influence of western disturbances, weak low pressure formation over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, limited support from the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and the emergence of the El Niño conditions.

[00:01:42]Now, climate experts warn that El Niño is beginning to reshape a global weather patterns. And the climate phenomena occurs when a sea surface temperatures in the center equatorial Pacific Ocean remain at least a 0.5° C the normal for an extended period, triggering large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation.

[00:02:04]Historically, El Nino has been associated with a weaker monsoon activity and below-normal rainfall across India. However, weather experts stress that El Nino alone cannot hold the monsoon, but it can definitely make atmospheric conditions less favorable for widespread thunderstorm development and sustained rainfall activity.

[00:02:26]And now the next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether the monsoon regains momentum and reduces the growing rainfall deficit.

[00:02:46]And to discuss this further, I'm joined by esteemed guests this afternoon. I'm joined by Mr. Mahesh Palawat, who is a weather expert. Mr. Palawat, good afternoon. Thank you for being on time and joining me over here.

[00:02:56]Uh we are definitely concerned about the impact of the El Nino, but take us through what exactly is leading to the delay in the monsoon?

[00:03:07]Because we're talking about a 41% of deficit as far as the regular rainfall is concerned, the monsoon onset that started on 4th June until 18th June doesn't look like that it is going to deliver the 72% rainfall that is ideally seen during this particular period is what the Met Department is saying. Mr. Palawat, what are the factors and the contributors that has led to this stalling of the monsoon in India?

[00:03:33]>> Uh yes, good afternoon.

[00:03:35]Uh we are waiting we are waiting for a low-pressure area to form over Bay of Bengal. And until now, there's no weather system for developing over Bay of Bengal or either over Arabian Sea.

[00:03:47]The monsoon surge over western parts of the country, west coast of the country is very weak. The Somalia jet uh which usually translate into a monsoon surge over western parts, particularly and Goa, coastal Karnataka, and Kerala is also weak. If a low pressure area develops over central parts of Bay of Bengal, it will have a full impact over Arabian Sea. The monsoon surge that drifts from Arabian Sea will rush towards Kokan and Goa leading to active active monsoon phase over that area. But it is not helping and the eastern parts of the country, particularly Bihar, Jharkhand, and eastern parts of Uttar Pradesh, they are also not receiving enough rain because the monsoon currents, or you can say the humid winds from Bay of Bengal which travels from Bay of Bengal towards the Indo-Gangetic Plain, they are also not started yet. So, we think that by 25th or 26th of June, there may be the formation of a low pressure area over Bay of Bengal which will enhance the monsoon activity over western coast as well as over eastern parts of the country. Monsoon has not touched Mumbai also. Usually, the normal date of onset of monsoon over Mumbai is June 10th and we are on almost 9 days delay delay.

[00:05:13]It is there and the rainfall activities over central parts of the country is also very very less. So, we think for next 1 week is crucial and for next 1 week we do not foresee any significant rain activity over anywhere in the country except northeast India.

[00:05:30]Yeah.

[00:05:31]>> Okay, point taken, Mr. Palawat. You are saying that the monsoons could possibly be delayed. As we're talking about the rainfall deficit over here, you are saying we should wait for another week or 10 days as the monsoons hasn't really reached other parts of the country as yet. But I also want you to elaborate upon what exactly is the impact of the Indian Ocean dipole? Does it rule out the impact of the El Nino? How does it work?

[00:05:59]>> I see whenever there is El Nino, the monsoon southwest monsoon over Southeast Asia usually decreases. The rain activity decreases because the sea surface temperature over western Pacific and Indian Ocean they are below normal and the the cycle of the season cloud formation is limited.

[00:06:17]Whereas in southern parts of America and of Peru, there is flooding rain which is happening there.

[00:06:23]So Indian Ocean dipole is another factor which when it is positive, whenever Indian Ocean dipole is significantly positive it usually negates the impact of El Nino and monsoon rains are normal or sometimes even above normal. But the as far as of now, the forecast of Indian Ocean dipole I will be seems to be slightly positive. It will not It is It will not be able to negate the impact of El Nino. That's why we do not expect that rain activities will enhance anytime soon. Moreover, the Madden-Julian Oscillation which you have uh you talked about recently, this is also a eastward propagating a wave of clouds which travel along the equator and across the globe. When it enters the Indian Ocean, it enhances the monsoon rainfall, but it is also not showing over Indian Ocean. That's why the both Madden-Julian Oscillation as well as Indian Ocean dipole, they are not supportive for the enhancement of monsoon rain. That's why we have to wait for another 1 week or so. But thereafter by 25th or 26th June, we think that monsoon will progress over west coast as well as eastern parts of the country.

[00:07:39]But even during that time, we do not foresee torrential rain, which the typical monsoon rain will remain absent.

[00:07:46]Therefore, we think that the month of June will end in deficient monsoon rainfall.

[00:07:53]>> Okay, so and if there is going to be deficient monsoon rain in these months, do we expect them to make up for it in the months of August and September for the later half of the monsoons? Or do you feel there is a need for warmer winds to be, you know, induced in some way so that there can be better monsoon? Or are we waiting for some sort of western disturbances or the changing wind pattern? What will possibly facilitate this uh monsoons over the next 1 month or more?

[00:08:24]>> See, the western disturbance during this period, they usually travel in upper latitudes, so they will not help.

[00:08:30]Western disturbance will only help in pre-monsoon activities, which are going on over parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi recently, but they are not enough.

[00:08:39]So, we are waiting for a formation of a low-pressure area over Bay of Bengal, and sometimes a low-pressure area that develops or cyclonic circulation develop over northeastern India.

[00:08:49]These weather systems usually enhance the monsoon rainfall, and monsoon rain progresses over eastern parts of the country, the Gangetic plain, as well as over western parts of the country up to Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, and from eastern monsoon progresses via Bihar, Jharkhand, eastern UP, and it travels up to Delhi and NCR.

[00:09:11]So, by 25th or 26th of June, we think that there will be a low-pressure area developing. So, we are waiting for that, but going ahead in the month of July, August, and September, because El Niño is now developing, and it the predictions are there that it will also intensify as we progress further in the monsoon. So, therefore, we think that July, August, and September, all the three three months will also see or witness deficient rainfall. That's why we think that this monsoon is going to be stressful for farming community as well as masses because reservoirs are already below the below the normal level. So, we think that the central part of the country, parts of Gujarat, particularly Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Marathwada, Vidarbha but North interior Karnataka, Telangana, these areas will receive deficient rainfall during this monsoon.

[00:10:11]>> But, Mr. Palawat, I want to ask you since you are a weather expert over here, you know, once the IMD department goes ahead and predicts the basic time frame at which the monsoon landfall is expected, especially in places like Kerala, where does the IMD miss out on this delay? They had predicted there's going to be monsoons coming. Did they see this coming? How did they miss out on this El Nino blockage that is hampering the monsoons in India?

[00:10:39]>> You see, IMD has predicted well because earlier they were they have told that it will be 92% of long period average, but now they have degraded it to 90%.

[00:10:50]So, 10% deficiency in the four-month period is very large deficiency. And although they have not demarcated the area of where the stress will be more, but in Skymet in Skymet we have we have already stated that the parts of central India, most parts of central India, particularly Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and interior south north northern parts of south peninsula will not receive enough rainfall.

[00:11:19]However, northwest India may receive normal to slightly below normal rainfall.

[00:11:25]Parts of Bihar, West Bengal, and northeast India will also get sufficient rainfall. South peninsula will also be at near normal rainfall. So, there is a uh the distribution of rainfall will be scattered and it will not be uniform.

[00:11:41]>> No, Mr. Palawat, I was asking you about the reading of the El Nino. Do you think that IMD and the other such weather IMD models still need to read the impact of El Nino more carefully and more intricately and thereby perhaps inform the people because there's going to be a lot that's going to be depending upon the monsoons. If there is going to be a rainfall deficit, it's going to adversely impact the water resources and the agricultural sector.

[00:12:10]>> I think already I told you that already the IMD has stated the stated well that they they predicted the monsoon will be below normal and now they have downgraded because they know the El Nino impact will be more as we progress further. That's why they have downgraded their forecast to 90%. So, all the models were indicating that rainfall will be below normal or agricultural drought side may go it may go below 90% also. That's why they have predicted well and we decide that we are also we will also revise monsoon rainfall.

[00:12:49]We are studying studying all the models, global models as well as our own models.

[00:12:54]We will come out with our revised forecast in the first or second week of July.

[00:12:58]So, we think that including IMD that rainfall will be below normal and there will be agricultural drought in some parts of the country.