Jamie Dimon on the looming reality of US national debt.

本站添加: 2026-05-27

[00:00:00]It is going to hit. Like, US government debt is 30 trillion. The average rate is 3 and 1/2%. You know, so even today they can't possibly refinance finance it at lower than that rate. Uh they have another $2 trillion to do this year. Uh so, yeah, it but what what the thing is we don't know when. We don't know when the world gets too scared about that. Uh when inflation makes it where people don't want own long-term duration securities. Or where it's just the demand for capital. There have been examples in history where there's so much demand for capital rates are going up. But it's for a good reason. People are making productive investments in uh in the world.

[00:00:35]Government spending is off off and not that. Government spending is much more consumption related, which doesn't, you know, help uh future productivity. So, you know, all all that spending too drives corporate profits. So, people shouldn't be that surprised that corporate profits are doing quite well, too. Which helps obviously the stock market.

[00:00:50]And the question, I guess, if I could get you to look in the crystal ball, right? And what yield would that be spillover to the economy, to policy, to markets? Yeah, so I'm very cautious about crystal balls cuz I don't think anyone has a crystal ball. We look at all potential possible outcomes, and you'd be surprised from recessions with inflation, from recessions with no inflation, uh from your home prices down 40%, stock prices down 40%.

[00:01:17]It's a wide range of outcome. I think when people think this is our forecast that that's what's going to happen, I think that's a an intellectual error. I think you should be much more think about range of outcomes, possibilities, probabilities. And for us, we want to handle all of them so we can serve our clients.

[00:01:32]So, I'm not that worried about, you know, our profits going down and the stock going That doesn't worry me at all.