New Storm Timing + Tropical Wild Card

Added: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]Rounds of rain and storms continue in the forecast with severe weather and flood risks. Hi everybody, I'm chief meteorologist Chris Justice. Please let me know this is coming through loud and clear by liking this video. Subscribe to the channel and turn on those notifications for more updates. I promise to keep you up to date and this is a pattern you need to stay up to date on because some of the models I'm seeing here are showing we could have upwards of six inches of rain in the next couple of days. So let me know where you're watching from right now. That is always a help. Let's run through the new model as I just saw it come in as we go into our Thursday or I should say uh Saturday. We're going to start the day off with this batch of heavy rain that that had some thunder and lightning with it. You know, pushing off toward the east. Here we are toward 3 4 a.m. Most of us are calming down. Good sleeping weather if anything. Uh we're going to see 9:00 a.m. be met with some showers across the area. Maybe some heavy rain in some areas, not all areas. Now, deeper in the forecast, here we are noon. There's some rain out, but not everybody's getting wet. I know there's a lot going on between graduation festivities and, you know, you know, state championship baseball games like Southside Christians trying to get in. I know there's going to be some storms. I just pinpointing exactly what time and where is like throwing a dart at a at a at a board, right? They're going to be there. I can tell you that. It's just a matter of when and where for your town.

[00:01:18]And here we are, four o'clock, five o'clock, six o'clock. I have a 90% chance of rain for us tomorrow. So, at some time tomorrow, you're going to see some rain. But for some of you, it may be 8 n o'clock in the evening before you get your first drop. So, don't cancel plans. That's why we always say don't cancel plans. Go on with it if you can, but have a contingency because you'll likely run into some rain that could be really heavy at times. Here's 9:00.

[00:01:42]We've got very heavy rain moving across many areas of Georgia, uh, South Carolina, and North Carolina. And this continues through 1 2 3:00 a.m. 4:00 a.m. Uh, and we're simmering down again for Sunday morning. Sunday morning starts off with a few showers. Yes, not completely dry, but as we go throughout the day, we're going to see that fire up first likely along the the frontal boundary right here. This would be the uh the seab breeze trying to push inland. And as it does, just all the all the collisions happen. All the the storms are colliding and that just breeds more storms. Monday for Memorial Day, again, same story. Starting off mainly dry, maybe a little bit of sunshine, birds are chirping. Then comes the daytime heat and you get those storms to crank up yet again. Now, why do we need to stay so dialed in on this?

[00:02:26]Well, watch this, folks. We've got just enough instability in the atmosphere to give us some stronger storms. You know, surging to the north. I mean, some of these values here are up to to 2,000 jewels of cape. I mean, this is a lot of fuel for thunderstorms fueling into many areas uh Saturday afternoon and then Sunday, watch it surge back in. So, enough to give us efficient rain makers, thunder and lightning. As far as widespread severe weather, not really expecting that. Could we get some warnings? Certainly. There's a lot of collisions and boundaries happening, but u I do think these just make a lot of noise. Here's lightning density. You can see as we go into uh the overnight hours that simmers down and then going into Saturday, watch how this starts to crop back up. Any storm that does form has a lot of lightning potential with it. Uh very electrical storms like we had on Friday. Same story Sunday. Some of that 11:00, midnight, 1:00 a.m. 2:00 a.m. So know that this is not just your typical uh you know middle of the day type lightning activity. There could be some overnight storms as well. Speaking of that, we've got a level two risk of flash flooding where we've had repeated downpours, we've had several inches. So, parts of the western Carolas, northern Greenville County, you just need to be careful that we could get too much rain in a short period of time and that could lead to uh some really uh rough weather uh to travel in. In fact, as I look at the new high resolution model for specifically the rain, notice how there's pockets in here surrounded by two inches that are over three. You know, that's more rain than we've had in a month's time frame in one night. Now, we can handle that. We just can't handle some of these streaks that that get up over this model showing 6.5 for Greenwood. You know, is that possible to get training? Yes. But as a whole, we need to begin to look at where we sit after the next week's time frame. And as I go through Memorial Day weekend, the European wants to show by Tuesday morning when we're heading back, all said and done, parts of western North Carolina and the upstate are sitting at a very pretty four to five inches of rain. That's a lot of rain and honestly exactly what we needed for this drought.

[00:04:34]Now, that said, we're not done. I have daily thunderstorm chances that are just going to add to these totals to where by next Saturday, if we go all the way through the end of the month. When you are done with May, there are some areas here across Florida that have two plus inches. And then we need to watch what's happening here across South Florida, but you get into the Carolas into Georgia, we've got five to to five and a half, even six plus inches of rain across the area. And that's important because one, it's going to help our drought significantly, but that could lead to some flooding threats. And as the pattern unfolds here, I want you to know that I'm monitoring an overall pattern here that that honestly looks pretty gnarly. And I and I say that because look at this ridge building in and the way that this axis sits. We're getting straight tropical moisture here, kind of originating here from the Caribbean into the Gulf. and it just streams that moisture into the western Carolas, meaning we have very efficient rain makers. It's going to be very hot, very humid, and that's going to lead to the storms that do form to be moisture laden, moisture packed, and and just like here at the beach, the rain that does come down is just pouring. Okay?

[00:05:43]And there's a little bit of a a wild card here that we need to watch with regard to the tropics. Let me show you what I mean as I advance this European model out. I'll pause it here as we start to turn the corner into May. Here we are 5:00 a.m. Tuesday.

[00:05:58]There's just some wind trying to just activity. You got muggy air just streaming to the north. Now, I always say this, anytime you leave, you know, an atmosphere alone for a long enough period of time, something's going to try to crop up. And here we are going into the 30th, you've got lower pressure off the Carolina coast. And there's a little something down here toward uh South Florida that we need to watch according to some of the models. But this 106 low right there, I mean identified a low pressure. Is it tropical in nature? If it is, it's very weak, meaning it doesn't have a lot of wind. Either way, name system, not name system, low pressure, whatever have you. The tropical moisture is concerning here to where we could get too much rain in too short a period of time, even though we need it because we're in a significant drought. Now, the GFS and the European to some degree have each uh hinted at this potential. Let me flip things over to the GFS. Again, GFS will do GFS things. So, take that for what it's worth. But, uh as we go into the end of May, it's got a little something right in here. You see those those low lower pressures across the Caribbean. That's a typical trouble spot, but u it's got some moisture and a little 10005 low just like the European did somewhere in here. It's also got a little thousand six here off the the Gulf Coast. So again, these are not surprising to me as we have left this area just so active with so much moisture and old frontal boundary that you know, you could get a little something to spin up there. Does that cause problems? That's yet to be determined. But we already are dealing with a lot of rain. Then you add in the potential here for some tropical moisture to go through Havana and then up through Cancun. Uh South Florida could get tropical enhanced moisture, whether it's from a name system, a depression, or just a regular old low pressure system. doesn't really matter.

[00:07:45]It just matters that the impacts are for some heavy rain uh that could, you know, approach six plus inches of rain. And again, that's not all in one afternoon or one day even. It's over the course of of a longer period of time frame. So again, we got to watch that and including the fact that we could get some isolated stronger storms in here on Saturday. The outlook for Sunday just calls for general thunderstorms across the area and we'll watch that very closely as we move forward, folks. So hey, thank you for being here. Thank you for tuning in. If you're new to this channel and you have any questions, the best thing I can say to you is please let me know where in the world you're watching from right now. That does help me out with regard to tracking these type events, subscribe to the channel and turn on those notifications as you know I can keep you informed if you're notified of when I go live or whenever I do an update on these videos as it helps me keep you informed there. So, please let me know where you're watching from right now. And uh folks, going to Memorial Day weekend, the key to remember here is it's not going to be raining every second of every day. So, I would not cancel plans. That said, if you have an event that just can't get wet, a wedding that uh is outdoors and you don't have a tent, well, you need one because there is a a very high chance you're going to run into rain at some point. I cannot with any accuracy tell you exactly what time and exactly what town because the the nature of this time of the year is it's scattered. It's here, it's there, it's there. Uh, but I can tell you the chances and that the storms will be around. Okay, so simply put, we're going to be running into these u storms um over time and that's going to give us something to keep an eye on. So folks, thank you for being here. We'll continue to keep you posted as we are monitoring this activity across the area. Again, let me know where you're watching from and should a warning be issued, another way you can stay safe is by downloading the WIFF News4 mobile app. It'll keep you safe and alert you should a warning come for your town. And what you can count on here is I'll have more updates on the trends uh as we move into Memorial Day weekend itself and into the next week.

[00:09:39]So again, if you're new here and haven't already, good thing to do is like those uh like that video, hit the like button right now, subscribe, and turn on those notifications as we promise to keep you posted here through Memorial Day weekend and beyond as this wet pattern continues across many areas of the South. Stay tuned and stay safe, everybody. Have a great Memorial Day weekend.