Is the Authoritarian Moment Starting to Crack? 📱

Added: 2026-05-21

[00:00:00]Hey, hey, hey.

[00:00:52]It's the Worth Knowing live stream. I'm Matt Robersonson and it's been a bad decade. From economics to health, from culture to politics. If people in the US and around much of Europe seem to agree on one thing, it's that everything has gotten worse. That thread is woven through cross-country polling. It's embedded in the rates of depression and anxiety and suicide evident across countries. It's visible inside international indicators of economic distress. As a result, people don't trust their own institutions anymore.

[00:01:25]And that vacuum of trust, that gap, has led to an inrush of political opportunists, populist movements, semi to full authoritarians, and out-and-out kleptocrats. And lucky us, here in the US, we got all three. It's been boom times for brittle, strong men. But today, I want to make a case that something has shifted and that we may just be getting some glimmers of hope that the authoritarian kleptocrat moment is hitting a wall and just maybe it's showing cracks. What I'm going to do right now is lay out the basic story of what happened to much of the world, including the US. What created the rise of the death spots and the conmen and the thieves. And then I'm going to make the case that in just the past few months, we've seen a change that may promise hope ahead. And then finally, I'm going to subject myself to a real-time test because I'm bringing on my friend Dan Perry, who has been the lead editor for the Associated Press for Europe and the Middle East and elsewhere. He's a deep expert in international affairs. And I'm going to ask him, what does he make of the case that something real has changed? What's he seeing? and is there really hope ahead? So, let's start by understanding the basic story. Now, this is necessarily going to be a little simplistic. I'm going to go through this fast, but if you had to tell the story of the past decade quickly, it would sound something like this. By the mid2010s, after decades of economic forces had built up, the basic economic bargain of globalism, democracy, and market capitalism was flailing. A significant portion of the workforce of many countries, especially in the US, was feeling left behind and vulnerable to the forces of trade and globalization and immigration. And that left a huge chunk of voters and not just in the US, but across Europe feeling frustrated and angry and primed to seek disruption. And if you want to read a succinct summary of exactly what happened, what those forces were, how they all came together, how Trump had an early insight and saw all of this coming and saw how to take advantage of it. I wrote it up for Newsweek and it's in the Substack article. There's a link. It's in the Substack article that accompanies today's liveream. It's available on my Substack worth knowing.com.

[00:03:56]worth knowing.substack.com.

[00:03:58]The point is by the mid2010s there was a pool of standing brackish water of unhappiness and anxiety and that's a fertile breeding ground for all kinds of pests including right-wing populist style movements who were able to gain power by stoking resentment. People felt like they were in a steaming swamp and that was the moment for opportunists to try to turn up the heat and turn that disillusionment into a sense of betrayal. As Donald Trump put it to black voters in his 2016 campaign, what do you have to lose? Which is a very KY provocation. It didn't fully work, but it showed a deep understanding of how much hopelessness and anger people felt about the system. Now, at the same time that all of this was going on, an increasingly aggressive Russia led by an actual despot with immense resources at his disposal began to go on offense.

[00:04:54]Now, this wasn't a cause of everything that happened afterwards, but it sure was a catalyst. And if you want to see exactly how, I strongly recommend a stunning 2018 US Senate investigation into all of this, detailing exactly how successful Russia was at fermenting global disruption by weaponizing its asymmetric arsenal to make all of our democratic processes and institutions worldwide go haywire. And the link is also in my Substack article. This was truly a deep war and it was one that we lost because we didn't even realize we were fighting it until it was too late.

[00:05:31]As a result, what we began to see in the mid2010s, Trump, Brexit, the rise of right-wing forces in Europe and also in what used to be the only pluralistic democracy in the Middle East in Israel. Now again, this is all a simplification, but the basic bones are right. There was a noxious brew of popular resentment, opportunistic politicians, new communications technology, by which I mean social media plus phones, and oligarch money, which poisoned the well of politics in the US and Europe. and politicians who were able to pitch disruption and channeling anger at convenient scapegoats and promising simple fixes were able to take advantage.

[00:06:19]Just fast forward a little bit to CO and that created a little bit of an eye of the storm here in the US, but it also contained the seeds of further slide.

[00:06:29]That interruption dislodged Trump and it brought some hope that maybe we break the fever. But because of all of the massive economic disruption, the price increases, the tangled supply lines, the loss of jobs, the pandemic built even greater resentment and that spilled into our elections. And so American voters subsequently overlooked an insurrection, a felony conviction and growing mental incapacity, by which I mean like batshit craziness to bring Trump back. And in Europe, we saw a continued rightward tilt. Italy saw the Brothers of Italy party rise to power. In France, the national rally transformed from a fringe party into a major contender. Germany, the far-right alternative for Germany rose from marginal support in 2013 to over 20% by 2025.

[00:07:20]The point is that the power-hungry and avaricious seized on the postcoid moment, including among the people who already held autocratic power, Russia took advantage of the disruption to launch its attack in Ukraine. Benjamin Netanyahu took advantage of the angry vibes to polarize his own society with a massive power grab and then he leveraged the October 7th attacks to conduct a series of escalating wars including in Iran that he had always wanted and China's vicious repression of its weaguer minority population deepened and of course here in the US Trump started engaging in eyepopping levels of self-deing and political retribution and corruption.

[00:08:08]They became so staggering that last year he took a $400 million jet as a bribe at the same time he took away aid from the poorest children on earth causing hundreds of thousands to die and there was no scandal.

[00:08:24]That's how inured we had all become.

[00:08:27]By the end of last year, the situation had begun to feel, for me, and maybe for you like a flywheel of accelerating chaos with chunks of what used to be our shared laws and values flying off the sides. And I say all of that not as a depressing reminder, but as a prelude, because now, like I said, I think there's a shift underway, even if it's subtle.

[00:08:54]So, I'm going to make the case that some things has changed and I'm going to say upfront there are counterarguments.

[00:09:00]I could be wrong. I'm not trying to overpromise, but I do think this is real. I do think the authoritarian populist kleptocrat exis axis is running into limits and it's beginning to bounce back.

[00:09:12]So, point number one, Ukraine is gaining steam. Now, I did a whole five minute video on this. The link is in my Substack. You can go to Worth Knowing YouTube and see the whole thing. It's part of my that's [ __ ] series um on the show Political Rehab.

[00:09:30]It's up there. I did a whole video on this and I made the case that Trump and JD Vance have hoisted themselves on the ultimate petard of irony by trying to undermine Ukraine and bolster Russia at every turn. They've inadvertently sparked a giant leap forward in European strength and cohesion and a wave of Ukrainian innovation that truly could help them to win this war. That's that's what we're seeing. And I'll get into more of this with Dan Perry in a few minutes, but there are some really enticing numbers coming out. I mean, enticing, they're horrifying because they involve war, but they're certainly provocative.

[00:10:15]By the same token, there are signs that Europe is beginning to find its strength, and it's something I also covered in that video. There's a newfound sense of purpose in Europe now that they've kicked Victor Orban to the curb and removed his veto over European aid to Ukraine. They've pulled together and are on the verge of sending a massive aid package, loan package to Ukraine. And what we're seeing is growing cohesion around standing up to Trump as the US has backed away from the NATO alliance.

[00:10:50]European countries have tried to fill the gap.

[00:10:55]And again, there's irony here. I mean, I I almost sound like I'm giving Donald Trump credit, but there's no doubt that if this trend continues, it'll be because of what Trump did, whether it was fully intended or not.

[00:11:13]But Europe does seem to be closing that gap.

[00:11:18]In Russia, Politico just reported last night on signs of cracks and strains and of the Kremlin going through one of its periodic bouts of infighting and house cleaning, or as Ukrainian intelligence officials like to put it, this is a great quote, spiders eating each other in a jar.

[00:11:36]Highle government officials are being scapegoed and prosecuted.

[00:11:40]Russia's whole Victory Day parade was scaled back to like a minimum level because of fears of Ukrainian drone attacks.

[00:11:49]And again, this is a quote from Politico. On the economic and social fronts, the Kremlin also has worries.

[00:11:55]The patriotic consensus inside Russia is beginning to face growing pressure from worsening living conditions, expanding drone attacks, and rising social fatigue.

[00:12:07]In China, you don't hear much about this.

[00:12:11]Certainly didn't hear much about it in the run-up to that Putin between uh that that that that Putin. There you go.

[00:12:18]Putin on the brain to that summit between Trump and she last week. Didn't hear much about it, but there are growing signs of economic unrest in China. economic protest in China where it's so dangerous to protest which shows that this is very meaningful to the people who are engaging it. Freedom House has reported increasing dissent over labor and quote a steady rise in protests by home buyers and homeowners amid a deepening financial crisis in China's real estate sector. Other analysts have even documented an uptick in violent attacks, so-called revenge on society attacks. people frustrated, angry, and lashing out.

[00:13:03]And maybe the biggest story coming out of the Trump she summit last week was that there was no story. There were no real deals, no trade progress, nothing that fundamentally moves the needle on the economic status quo for either country. And again, I'm going to get into this with Dan because it begs a lot of questions there.

[00:13:20]Benjamin Netanyahu.

[00:13:23]Well, Israel's ruling coalition led by Netanyahu has just gotten out ahead of what was going to be opposition calls to dissolve parliament and hold early elections. They had to because Netanyahu is facing, according to the Guardian, quote, a possible collapse of his fractious coalition as he comes under mounting pressure from ultraorththodox parties.

[00:13:49]So, he's got deep political problems. By the way, he's 76 years old and underwent uh treatment for prostate cancer. He has a number of pressing issues.

[00:14:01]But if you were to make the case right now that his grip was slipping, you'd be on pretty firm ground. And again, we're going to ask Dan about this. There's there's no greater expert on earth on the status of of what's going on in Israel. Finally, let's talk domestically, which is usually where we focus here.

[00:14:19]Donald Trump is breaking the floor. If you remember nothing else from today's live stream, it's this. We have stunning numbers. Stunning numbers coming in this week about just how far Trump has fallen. Now, there's been a longunning assumption among American political analysts for years that there's a lower limit on how far Trump can sink in the public's estimation.

[00:14:46]You see it in his approval numbers.

[00:14:48]seems to be about a 38% to 40% floor on his approval rating.

[00:14:56]Well, he's falling through it. The new numbers, which I'll show more of when uh we get Dan on here in in a couple of minutes, the new numbers from the New York Times from their polling are really breathtaking just how far he's fallen. The most breathtaking of all. I've been I've been making a case on this live stream on my Substack for weeks that the fundamentals of the political situation have not changed. As bad as the Voting Rights Act ruling was from the Supreme Court, as bad as the overturning of Virginia's map was as a setback for Democrats in the midterms, they they were bad. They were roadblocks. They were stumbles. Doesn't change the fundamentals.

[00:15:42]And when I was writing about that, the fundamentals were saying that the generic ballot was about a sevenpoint advantage for Democrats. That's very, very strong territory. Very strong territory. Like Republicans in 2010, Obama shellacking territory. That much of an advantage.

[00:16:04]The New York Times Sienna poll just showed that it's actually now an 11 point gap. 11 points. That is 2018. That is up there with some of the biggest midterm wave elections ever. That's the territory we're getting into. And what seems to be driving it is prices, affordability, cost of living, that whole nexus of issues. and also a realization from the public that this is all an empty bag of nothing from Trump that they they essentially prayed for a Hail Mary in 2024 and their prayer wasn't answered. It turned out to be nothing but a bag of air from this guy. And all they've gotten is a bunch of fake Trump phones and promises of an economic golden age that aren't true. And Trump literally saying, and we covered this on political rehab on Friday. I hope people will check it out on YouTube.

[00:17:11]Trump literally said the worst thing that a president can say. He made in my mind. I don't know. I might I might have to do like an all-time bracket of the worst presidential gaps uh gaffs. Um I but I I I just here and I'm going to put my YouTube here on the bottom banner saying the quiet part out loud that you don't even think a little bit about Americans financial situation about Americans financial pain that you don't worry about it at all.

[00:17:43]I can't imagine. I mean, we have come a long way from I feel your pain to this.

[00:17:50]It it it's hard to imagine a bigger middle finger to your voters. So that's the case. There's the backlash in the US, the growing strength in Europe, the cohesion, the push back, the fight back against Putin and Russia in Ukraine by Ukraine.

[00:18:14]There's China running into deep internal problems, economic problems, and really being unable to find a way forward in a meaningful way that'll change their situation with Trump.

[00:18:28]There's Netanyahu beginning to run into the limits of how far he can push that society. And listen, he's pushed it really far. I get it. I do. I I I I've I've been a a supporter of Israel and the current government has gone beyond my limits long ago to support or sustain.

[00:18:56]But but but the thing about democracy is that it it should be self-healing.

[00:19:02]There should be a path back. And I think perhaps what we're beginning to see is a path back. And it's hopeful for the US and it's hopeful for Israel because if we can rein in and hold accountable the kleptocrats, the thieves, you know, the corrupt selfdealers, the power grabbers, if we can start to claw it back, then we do have the capacity. We do have the capacity to get ourselves back on track.

[00:19:32]Now, again, I want to be clear, and yes, I'm filibustering a little bit here. I'm filibustering because Dan warned me that um he was going to have a hard time. He is an international traveler and um he is trying to make his way to us uh from many obligations. So um yes, I'm I'm totally filibustering a little bit here.

[00:19:56]I just want to acknowledge that I fully expect Dan to poke holes in this. You can certainly find evidence that we are not out of the woods by a long stretch.

[00:20:06]I am in no way meaning to suggest that Putin is on some kind of weak ground and he's about to lose power that Xiinping is about to uh fall from a top the the the Chinese uh government architecture.

[00:20:24]I I'm not suggesting that. I'm just suggesting that they have run into some natural limits that there is there's some push back. The bravery of the people who are protesting in China says a lot about the level of distress going on there. and what you're hearing out of Russia about the amount of uh discomfort, anger, frustration, it raises questions about how long they can sustain things there as well. And that to me is a pretty hopeful sign um overall. And that's what I want to try to interrogate today. Before I get to that, let me also say that I am um I I really appreciate all the people commenting here. Um and I want to I want to address a a piece that I know people want to talk about. I haven't caught up to all the comments because believe it or not, this is like uh trying to sing while reading. Okay. You ever see uh uh you ever see the what's the movie where Albert Brooks is like I'm singing and reading? Yeah. It's very very hard to follow the comments and talk and uh and think. But um I want to address this comment from Lefty Grahams because I actually think it ties in very much this idea of the $1.776 billion to pay Trump goons. Who will stop them? Well, uh, I actually have an answer for that. Um, this is illegal.

[00:22:01]It's unconstitutional.

[00:22:02]You can't do it. You can't disperse money from the Treasury unless it's been authorized and appropriated by Congress.

[00:22:10]So, they could try to call this a legal settlement fund or whatever, but the the simple way to stop it is to not allow it. For Congress not to allow it. And by the way, that's the answer to a lot of problems is to actually elect a Congress that can stand up and fulfill its constitutional responsibilities. So, we'll get into much more um in a second, but I am successful. I did it. I filibustered. And now we have here Dan Perry.

[00:22:48]You made it. I I vamped as long as I could. And uh I I seem to have gotten you here.

[00:22:55]>> Hold on.

[00:22:56]>> All right.

[00:22:56]>> Sean's here. Uh which of these windows I don't close?

[00:23:01]>> Well, um I will say uh for people who are um new to Dan, Dan is former lead editor for Europe, for the Middle East, the Associated Press, um leading coverage and uh editorial responsibilities in many other places around the world. And there's really no greater expert on the kinds of questions that we're trying to run through today than Dan. So Dan, um, I sent you, you weren't here to hear my opening monologue. Um, but it's based on my Substack piece today, which you have seen. So I just want to ask you right off the top understanding my contention that something has shifted that the authoritarian kleptocratic faux populist ascendancy has hit a wall recently. Give me your topline answer.

[00:23:53]Do you agree with that? Are are you seeing the same thing?

[00:23:57]Partly I wish I could be more binary and more clear, but um the fact is, you know, I kind of feel like on any question of the day, if it's binary and your question was binary, everything breaks 50/50. Is this Tuesday or is it some other day? Uh you're going to get like 50% saying it's some other day. So, it's craziness. Um when we win these battles it's cuz we went over 2 3% and then it's like wow 53 to 47 say it's Tuesday. I think so probably so yes there is a certain accumulating uh and we about the global populists who enough of them got to power and showed that they don't have the answers and Trump obviously showed that so so it kind of looks like maybe it'll swing the other way but then you never know because major countries like Britain and France could very easily end up with Farage and Le Pen or her or her hand puppet Bardella being the head of the country uh in short order. So, we're not over the we're not out of the woods yet.

[00:25:10]We're not over the hump or any such thing. By the way, I apologize for being late. I blame two things. One, the fact that I was in TV studio and I'm still here. I just got to my office in my monkey suit to prove it. Uh and the other is there was difficulty getting on. Man, this platform has some issues.

[00:25:29]I don't know.

[00:25:30]>> Yes. Sub. Okay. Um the the headline Substack has issues uh is what you would call in the news business. Uh dog bites man story.

[00:25:39]>> I know.

[00:25:41]>> But here we are. Here we are. Hold on.

[00:25:43]And as I rush down, let me just close the door on my own.

[00:25:45]>> Yeah. Go ahead. And I'll uh I'll use your uh standing up as a predicate to to go to Ukraine. Um, >> for people who were not paying close attention to this, >> um, the numbers are really staggering >> coming out of Ukraine. Um, I'm just going to turn to a to an article in The Economist from a few days ago titled Russia starting to lose ground in Ukraine. Um, their tracker suggesting it's suffered its first sustained net loss since October 2023. Um, last year the number of drone fatalities caused by Ukraine for for Russian forces was about 35,000.

[00:26:31]We're now seeing a rate of about 35,000 a month. Ukraine is going from producing 4 million drones last year to 7 million this year is their target. And there's a strong case in my mind that they have gained at least the tactical upper hand.

[00:26:52]Now I I you you track all of this more closely than than most. Do you think something fundamental has shifted in the war in Ukraine?

[00:27:04]>> Yeah. Uh it's uh it's very clear that Russia can't win the war without doubling and quadrupling down. The drone thing has been a game changer. Uh this is totally asymmetric. The drones are cheap. They get smaller and smaller.

[00:27:20]They evade radar obviously. Um there are certain counter measures you can take, but you got to be like a high-tech power to do that. Um and it's killing you said 35,000. That was like yesterday's uh assessment a month.

[00:27:36]>> Right now I'm hearing expectations of killing 50,000.

[00:27:40]>> Uh there was a Black Mirror episode that was super super like uh predictive about drones that are the size of flies. We're not there yet, but we're headed in that direction. And and they're fairly cheap and impossible to intercept without things that cost a lot more. So this is a complete revolution in the science of of conducting warfare and yeah it's taken the Russians by surprise even though they themselves tried to buy Iranian drones. Ukrainians have become a drone superpower. Uh Zalinski was just all over the Middle East selling uh gies basically his drones. My guess is the Israelis will will come to him next. Uh because they they're facing drone warfare from Hezbollah in Lebanon.

[00:28:33]The Israelis have their own technology.

[00:28:36]But Ukraine is at this point uh sort of recognized as like a drone superpower.

[00:28:43]And for that reason, you're hearing other things like, well, maybe we should let Ukraine into the EU under a fast track like or maybe we need them. Maybe we the Europeans, as Trump has convinced us that we can't rely on the US anymore for our defense, uh, and therefore need to be self-sufficient, maybe we need Ukraine's help.

[00:29:04]>> Does Europe need Ukraine more than Ukraine needs Europe now?

[00:29:07]>> Uh, birectional. It really is because UK Europe's need for Ukraine is in the distant future. uh they may face an assault by Russia at some point but probably not maybe with Ukraine it's very clear Ukraine is under Russian attack now they do have the resilience the courage the determination they have certain elements of technological knowhow the drones probably being number one they don't have the money they don't have the other weapons the planes and so forth so the Europeans are critical to Ukraine for basically at this point, by the way, you want to talk about American disgrace, for giving the Ukrainians what America under Trump is making the Europeans buy.

[00:29:58]>> So, America is selling NATO armaments, airplanes, and whatever, and then NATO's giving it to Ukraine.

[00:30:08]There's there the the book of the moment I'm reading it right now is uh by David Epstein the author of the sports gene and range. It's called inside the box.

[00:30:18]It's about how constraints lead to innovation and creativity. We tend to think that we're we're more creative. Um we produce more when we have no constraints when we have ultimate freedom. He argues the opposite is the case and you need a constraint and that's sort of the do you buy that we have a world historic irony a geopolitical boomerang just came and hit Trump in his fat head because he's the one who has been trying like the Dickens along with his um right-hand lap dog JD Vance for four years now to undermine Ukraine and help Russia at every turn.

[00:30:57]And in so doing, he has inadvertently created a constraint that forced innovation and that may be the key to Ukraine's salvation. Are do you buy that irony story?

[00:31:08]>> I kind of do. Yeah. I mean, we have here >> Oh, there we go. Dan was in the middle of buying a story and he dropped off. Um and and he's back. This is this is the peril of dealing with Substack. But you were just saying you kind of buy the story.

[00:31:25]Yeah. Um, it's the obvious main case in current geopolitics of unintended consequences. Putin thought he was going to like, you know, roll across Ukraine, take over Kiev, stall a public government. Uh instead what he's done is underscored the weakness of his model in Russia, has given Ukraine a fast track to European Union membership.

[00:31:51]uh has also exposed the bankruptcy of Trump's support for for him Putin uh and has because of technological developments with the drones in particular enabled Ukraine to emerge as a major player in this new science of of of um uh of strategy essentially. So yeah, uh I have to think had Putin known that it would work out this way, he would not have invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

[00:32:23]But you never know.

[00:32:25]>> Yeah. The question is, if Trump had known it would work out this way, would he have launched the Iran war? But again, we'll never know.

[00:32:32]>> You know what I I would say on the Iran war? Yeah, >> it's a tough one because I understand Trump haters are going to be hating on the Iran war, but the Iranian regime is horrific. So, and it needed to be confronted.

[00:32:48]What is weird and what is bad and what is Trumpily ridiculous is that he did that without consulting his NATO allies, without making sure that we had a unified front against Iran uh and without planning for the blockage of the straight hormuz because what's changed everything is that Iran blocked the trader Hermuds and then the world economy freaks out and everyone's all upset except it was completely foreseeable. So, what's up with that?

[00:33:18]Now, Sentcom is not to blame. Sentcom, US military and US strategic planners knew this was coming.

[00:33:27]You keep hearing, Matt, about how Trump doesn't read a memo.

[00:33:32]This is what happens when you don't read a memo.

[00:33:36]>> It's I I mean, there was a brilliant deep dive from the New York Times. I don't always say that sentence detailing how this was all laid out for him. And um people were >> people were uh very reticent. You know, this is another I I made this argument.

[00:33:56]I made this argument, oh my gosh, four years ago, right at the start of the launch of the war with Ukraine, that a fundamental advantage, a strategic advantage that open societies, that democratic governments like ours used to be um have over autocratic regimes like Putin's Russia is the free exchange of ideas and that people aren't afraid to bring up unpopular opinions. that helps you avoid more mistakes in the long run.

[00:34:26]Now, does that mean that the US doesn't screw up all the time? Absolutely. Uh not, you know, like of course we do. And believe me, you know, you've reported on all of this for decades. I've been, you know, in inside rooms in government, you know, in my work in Congress. There are fallible human beings trying to make judgment calls and we make mistakes. But at least we have an exchange of ideas among experts who know what the heck they're talking about. They're not afraid to say to the boss, if you do this, there is a substantial risk of this consequence that could come back and bite you in the ass. And that's the thing that you saw missing with Putin's invasion. And you, as you said a moment ago, if Putin had known in 22 what he knows now, he might not have done this.

[00:35:09]That's the thing that was missing there.

[00:35:11]And apparently that's the difference now. That's what's missing here in the US. Speaking of >> Go ahead, please.

[00:35:20]The other difference is that Ukraine, however flawed, is a democracy and have to take public opinion into account. And Russia under Putin has become a full-on dictatorship, right? He's importing soldiers. Now, the ability to import soldiers is like very great if you're going to include the entire rest of the world uh that is impoverished and will uh try to kill Ukrainians for you for a few rubles. So there's a problem because Putin can to a degree do whatever the hell he wants to do.

[00:35:58]The the balance is that it's not exactly so because not everyone is equally jihadistic in the Kremlin. And if there becomes among Putin's circle of cronies a sense that they need to get out of dodge and to uh roll back the clearly unattainable ideas behind the invasion of of Ukraine, they might sacrifice Putin. And Putin is not a single solitary dictator who somehow holds the strings. He's part of a corrupt system that's basically the KGB, now rebranded the FSB. And we could see we could see um by the end of the year even you know I'll say this I was at this as I say at this conference in London uh people there who know roughly what they're talking about uh and someone I really respect made two predictions by the end of the year Putin will be gone and the Iranian regime will be gone. Now, the person who said this had all kinds of like experience and titles as Hashu's name. I will not reveal who it is. Uh, so I couldn't dismiss it. I was thinking both might be wishful thinking. Um, but I hope he's right because >> let me read let me read back that the the first one though. Um, because that's that's that's a big one.

[00:37:29]Based on all of your experience and expertise and what you're hearing from people with equally deep expertise, there is a credible scenario where Putin could be gone by the end of this year.

[00:37:42]>> Yes. And by the way, it's not it's not just from this conference and from this particular guy I'm referencing. Uh Putin is looking increasingly desperate. Um anyone who saw him at the Victory Day parade could also see the phys physical manifestations of it. Um, he's signaling in various ways. He's ready for a deal in slightly less ridiculous terms than in the past. He kind of knows, Matt. He kind of knows what you and I know that anyone of our viewers and anyone who has access to Google can tell, which is that the Soviet Union was fighting Nazi Germany for less time than Putin is fighting Zanski. And in that time, the Soviet Union moved from the gates of Stalingrad to Berlin.

[00:38:35]In the meantime, in the equivalent amount of time, uh Putin has moved the front line into Dombbas by 20 miles maybe.

[00:38:46]So, this is a this is a bone crushing failure. Uh there's no way to spin it.

[00:38:52]Uh it's not going anywhere good. As we said a short while back, uh tens of thousands of Russians are being killed, mostly by drones every month. Uh Ukraine is the poster child of the democratic world. Zalinski is received everywhere as a era. It's not good. So someone said bankruptcies they happen first slowly and then very quickly. Uh I adapt that to dictatorships. They fall eventually quickly. And it never is obvious before, right? Because people are afraid before the way the fear breaks down is an interesting psychological phenomenon where if it spreads quickly enough, radically enough, all of a sudden it becomes consensus. When I arrived in Romania, days after Chiaescu fell, you couldn't find one Chaosu supporter. No one would admit it.

[00:39:55]>> I mean, it was insane. It was like the guy ruled as a total dictator on his own.

[00:39:59]>> Yeah. hoping in 2029 it'll be the same thing with MAGA people. It's like Trump who? What? That guy? I never heard of him. Yeah, >> you're right. What can I say? I'm kind of hoping in 2026 it'll be that way in Russia.

[00:40:14]>> That's that's truly amazing. So I I Well, I'd love to keep going on Russia.

[00:40:18]I want to talk a little bit though about Israel. I know it's on people's mind. I can see it in the chat. Um, and I want to take advantage of having a stone cold expert um, here with us. So, it's a little hard for me to tell how much political duress Netanyahu is under right now.

[00:40:40]>> Total massive, complete, and fatal.

[00:40:44]>> Now, what people are saying in the chat is yes, but two points. actually one that I raised which is the polling that I've seen notoriously unreliable in Israeli politics but the polling that I've seen still puts him and his party in first place for the for the next round of elections and he the that a substantial majority of the Israeli public says that they support the war currently. Um, what do you make of of all of that mix of public opinion and political crosscurrens?

[00:41:26]>> My man, you're dragging me into the weeds, and I'm going to have to pull myself out of it to make it comprehensible to our audience, but I think I'm going to try. All right. So, Nathaniel's party being bigger than others is irrelevant. In Israel's system, uh, you basically have to get a majority in Knesset. It's 120 members. Uh each school of thought has more than one party, right?

[00:41:55]You need 61. Natano's party polling at the height of it had 25.

[00:42:02]Now you could say, how could it be?

[00:42:03]They're at 25 and Dan Perry says he's behind and the others had less than 25 because they're very divided. There's like seven opposition parties. Okay. Um are they really united? They're at this point united. Uh all the polls show two things. First of all, the combined Bennett Laid party as of last Friday pastly could as individual party but much more important by like one or two Knessa seats.

[00:42:33]But much more important is that the opposition block is pulling at 71 seats out of 120. Meaning so now is down to 49. That's >> enough to form a government.

[00:42:46]What? Way more than enough.

[00:42:47]>> Yeah.

[00:42:48]>> 79 71 to 49.

[00:42:52]Now, if this translates into the result, it would be unprecedented in the annals of Israeli history. Nathan is headed for a monumental defeat. You say the polls are inaccurate since we agree on almost everything.

[00:43:09]You got to let me disagree with you on this one Israel related thing. The polls in Israel are accurate. It's not a huge country. It's just under 11 million people. Uh by this point it's it's quite scientific how to poll them. The polls last time were completely correct. Uh the polls in fact the last many elections were within one or two percentage points to be sure but even better than that. The issue is when you have a parliamentary system certain distortions can enter based on methodology of aortioning the seats after the actual vote. The polls have it right. Netao right now has a support of about 37 35% of the people. Can the others unite enough to be uh determined enough force to to win? Do they have something equivalent to the anti-orban because you were talking about authoritarians before the anti-orban majar force in in in Hungary? I sense so. And there's also an sort of equivalent uh with Hungary in in the person of Nfali Bennett who like Peter Madar comes from Nata's party but he he his eyes were opened and he figured out that this is a horrible thing along 10 different dimensions and he's clearly now the opposition block that could have both the effect of bringing in voters and more holistically the effect of suggesting that there can be something almost close to a right left coalescing around a reasonable opposition but nonBB platform because Netanyahu has caused Israel unbelievable reputational damage has been a bad faith player in the world at large has devastated Israel's bipartisan support in the US and is corrupt >> so ne the next question becomes Is he going to be held accountable? Now, Jamie Schwitzer's version of this is, will he be charged with war crimes? I would expand that a little bit to will he be held accountable for any of his crimes?

[00:45:15]Well, look, the guy's on trial in Israel for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust.

[00:45:21]Uh, I don't think in Israel they like too much the idea of war crimes. Cuz, by the way, international law is a fuzzy and woolly thing. Uh, and if you want to be maximalist by international law, Barack Obama may be responsible for war crimes in the fight against ISIS in Iraq. No one wants to hear any of that. With all due respect to the ICC, uh, will he end up in jail in Israel?

[00:45:49]If you ask me that, my guess is no. My guess is in the end he'll get a pardon. The guy's almost 80.

[00:45:57]He's been the longest ever serving Israeli prime minister. Uh I I I do believe he's, as I said before, corrupt. Uh and I think he conducted the war in Gaza in a way that was wrong. But uh I don't think that's the hill Israelis want to die on. And uh by the way, they I mean, look, all political systems are a little bit corrupted by what people want. And if you think that isn't the case in America, I mean, I got to use Scar for you. Uh people don't want Natao in jail. They want him gone. And my assessment is both of those things are what will happen.

[00:46:38]>> I Well, first of all, uh hello to Kinky Streets and the comment it's Mayor Kahana's Israel now. Um that's a provocative um that's a provocative thought. Um interesting. And you know, look to your last point there and maybe this is a good jumping off to talk about the situation in the US. Um, I've been thinking a lot about this about what you just said that Israelis don't necessarily want to see him in jail, they want to see him gone. And what you're seeing in the US is a rising version of that conversation from Democrats about accountability. Susan Rice was just talking about it. Hakeem Jeffries was just talking about it. Is there going to be an accountability agenda here and you quickly run into two schools of thought? One is that it's absolutely essential that if you don't have it, you can't arrest the slide toward the the total end of your your framework of law. It's like you are on an ice shelf and you're slithering toward a creasse. and this is your ice axe. It's the only way to stop yourself.

[00:47:51]On the other hand, um given the cycles of retribution and the fact that so many voters don't get it and they have that sentiment that you just spoke to of we just want this to be over, we just want to move on and elections are ultimately about the future.

[00:48:10]>> Accountability has to be administered intelligently. That's my way of kind of squirming through it. What do you make of it? Oh, >> I mean, let me throw the question back at you.

[00:48:21]How purist are you prepared to be about accountability?

[00:48:25]Should every case of guilt be punished to the hilt?

[00:48:29]Or maybe you take the wider societal desire into account? And I think that's a fair enough question because the great unspoken truth is that legal systems do take societal preference into account.

[00:48:43]I it's a it's a wonderfully provocative question and here's a here's a window into um you and I both have written for Newsweek um in various incarnations over the years. I was putting together, you know, for for people in the audience, you know, I don't know how you tended to do it with your editors. What I tended to do was put together an outline of like a pitch of like here's what I'd like to submit to you. um you know, give me the uh the Roman gladatorial signal.

[00:49:14]And I was really really close. I was developing an argument around is there room for a South Africa style truth and reconciliation commission in the future in the US. And >> wow, that that's provocative.

[00:49:29]>> It's provocative. And here was the case I was going to make, but I'm not sure I believe it. But let's just let's just talk it out for a second.

[00:49:36]>> Let's hear it. The the argument I would make is if it's if it can be sustained by a society as a way forward as as that was beset by the kinds of problems that they had in South Africa. If this can be advocated for by one of my personal heroes, Nelson Mandela, perhaps it's good enough for us here in the US. Now, what people will say, and I invite people in the chat, please weigh in.

[00:50:06]What people will say is you can't do it.

[00:50:10]As a matter of fact, Jim Williams already said there must be accountability. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. And you're not wrong. You're not wrong.

[00:50:18]>> Uh, can I just tell him why he's wrong?

[00:50:21]>> Oh, go ahead. Oh, you Oh, let's go.

[00:50:23]Let's go. This will be fun. Go.

[00:50:26]>> What proportion of South Africa is black?

[00:50:30]>> Like 80?

[00:50:30]>> Uh, around 85 to 90%.

[00:50:33]>> 8. Yeah, 85. Yeah, >> Mandela had overwhelming support.

[00:50:40]>> What proportions of Africa in 1988, let's say, believed they'd be emancipated? Almost none. They thought it would be like a decadesl long slung.

[00:50:51]Mandela came to power as a sort of hero who accomplished a near miracle and was supported by the overpowering majority of South Africans. Now under those situations you can be you you can do all kinds of things. You can be holier than now. You can try to exact retribution. You can do a lot of things. And Mandela was especially thoughtful was seen as a moral icon and had monumental and uh almost religious level legitimacy.

[00:51:27]We don't have anything resembling that in the US. We have this partisan squabble between politicians that represent our the worst side of our demons on all sides. Far left, far right, they're all nuts. There's no legitimacy on anyone's part. So, an attempt to be a purist is likely to fail and be spun by the other side into a witch hunt. I'm not sure it's wise.

[00:51:55]You can't do it without consens consensus level support.

[00:52:00]My case would be my case for it would be that if we go the pure judicial accountability route that even though rightthinking rational people including Republicans some of whom have appeared on this show would understand that this is applying fair standards of justice that this is maintaining the rule of law. There would be so many as as you were just pointing to. There would be so many and and it would be such an obstacle. There would be so many who would see it merely as political retribution. No matter if that weren't true, no matter how unjust an accusation that would be, there would be people on the in the MAGA world, even if Trump shrugs off the mortal coil, who would try to weaponize it as they have with J6 and every other correct, fully legal prosecution that's occurred of Donald Trump. There would be people on the MAGA side who would try to weaponize it to say, "Well, they're just persecuting us."

[00:53:11]>> Well, you can be sure of it.

[00:53:13]>> So, we're going to do we're going to do it back. And it would set off a cycle.

[00:53:18]And the the the argument for a truth and reconciliation approach would be to say, "We're going to er it. We're going to create a historical record. We're not saying it's good. We're not saying it's okay. We're going to have truth and we're going to move forward." And it's the only way to get it out and to move on.

[00:53:38]>> Matt, there's no argument against it uh on an intellectual level. Of course, we should error the truth, right? Except for the practicalities which is that we have seen that the degree to which social media uh and um other factors including political polarization that comes from elsewhere have created two competing narratives in the US at least means you're never going to convince the other side.

[00:54:10]You can't convince them. You can air whatever you think you're gonna air and you'll always have a talking point and a counter thing and a Hunter Biden laptop and there's no way. So I can't argue against a truth and reconciliation commission in the US. But I can say this, which would you prefer? to win the next election and to fix the country or to forever litigate what happened with truth and reconciliation where it'll be disagreement over what is truth and no reconciliation. I wish it could be different that we were a better society that was more moral and more intellectual and more respectable to truth. But you got to work with the army you have. This is the army we got.

[00:54:55]Americans ain't never going to agree on what happened. We got to fix it, win it, and uh improve it.

[00:55:03]>> So, here's my here's my reveal. I actually agree with you. I there's a reason I never submitted that proposal to the Newsweek folks is that I talked myself out of it. But I do think I think it's worth thinking about. I do I think >> a better world. I mean, there's no argument against it.

[00:55:21]>> There's It brings up the set of issues of how do we do this? And the version that I'm most convinced of right now is that Susan Rice is right and that there has to be accountability for one thing because the promise that it's going to happen creates some deterrence. Um the people it's like you alluded to with the circle around Putin. They're going to see that, you know, at some point there's going to be violent push back here. We don't want to be the ones up against >> out of enlightened or in this case benited self-interest.

[00:55:50]>> Self-interest. Exactly. And you know, I also think I'm very very into the argument that um you have this is why what Jared Polus did with that uh with with with pardoning the um Tina Peters, the election um denier was so destructive.

[00:56:12]You you have to go you you have to go after. By the way, just I I kind of feel I should make this clear when I say we don't have to like hold them all to account because that's just too difficult and distracts from the main task of of of of correcting the disaster that they have left behind. That doesn't mean we should buy into any of their narratives. We should never for a second validate January 6 deniers, election deniers, all these people. I mean, that that needs to be crushed uh totally and should never be humored. And by the way, to loop back a little bit, your Truth and Reconciliation Commission would force us to humor it even a little bit. We'd have to hear it out. We'd have to have the argument again. It would give them a chance to grandstand once more. It's never ending.

[00:57:06]I again I I you know I think the purpose would be to say like you guys did wrong.

[00:57:13]We're not going to put you in prison for the rest of your lives. But again, I'm not I I kind of dismissed it as an idea.

[00:57:20]And for many of the same reasons that you enunciated, I just don't think it can work here. And again, I I agree with Kinky Streets and Lefty Gramps in the chat that, you know, like some some forces you just have to fight. Um, you just have to go after them. And look, let's I I do want to pivot before we break to just sort of the the top of the of the episode theme because, you know, as always, I have a domestic US focus. I know you know despite all of your international reporting accomplishments um you keep a close eye on tabs here and I just promise this is very close to my heart >> very close to your so you know I I promised at the top of the show I just want to give two sets of numbers this is uh this is from strength and numbers you can see the same numbers basically anywhere um you can see them in the New York Times poll this is Trump's approval um this is the old Christmas tree on its side um and just showing the fact that he has broken the floor. He's broken through what we previously thought was the lower bound of um contempt in which he could be held by the American public.

[00:58:31]And just as important is this set of numbers from New York Times Sienna. It's not the topline approval. It's the pieces of it. It's the fact that he is so far underwater on cost of living in the economy, which we know is the most important issue. and also the fact that he has no safe harbor on immigration anymore. Underwater by 15 points on his strongest issue. That is your armor and it is full of holes. And so it just goes back to the the key point that what I what I set out to to lay out at the top of the show was an idea that something has shifted and I do think we're getting substantial push back. you added more to it than I ever expected with your thesis that there's a realistic scenario that Putin could be gone. That's not something I expected. It does show that he's hit a wall. And you know, I I outlined the distress, the economic distress that's roing the situation in China. And you made again even a stronger case than I had anticipated that Netanyahu is in real trouble. the ascendant right-wing kleptocratic, bureaucratic, autocratic forces that we've seen rise up around the world over the last decade do seem to have run smack dab into something. And the most important one for those of us here in the US is obviously Trump. Now, I've seen with a lot of people in the comments saying like, "Yeah, but what if they steal the election? What if they don't accept the results of the election? What if they refuse to seat newly elected members of Congress in 2027? Yes, there are there are perils. I will go through them. I have a lot of plans to work on stuff like that and take a a realistic look at it. But the point is the push back is there. The barrier is there. And so I let me just give you you know a word on what you're seeing domestically in the US. But to me it fits of a piece with that larger pattern.

[01:00:27]>> Look, I totally agree with you. there is a a narrative where uh this experiment with right-wing populism and ethnic nationalism and all the rest of it that Victor Orban represented and Benjamin represents and in a way Putin represents is a little bit on the decline. Uh but I wouldn't be too sanguin. Trump won an election in the US with more votes than camel Harris a year and a half ago.

[01:00:54]This unbelievably unworthy person who just posted a picture of an alien and himself or some crazy nonsense on social media is a president of the US. He calls all the shots. He's figured out all these loopholes in the American system where he can do illegal stuff and the lemmings and the sardines in Congress will not stop him.

[01:01:18]GOP and the court system will take a year.

[01:01:23]He's organizing an arrangement that will give his allies $1.8 billion dollar for compensation against uh you know the weaponizing of the DOJ. I mean this is like theft from the American people and there seems to be no way around it. So to answer your question, >> it's not going to happen. Not a dollar will go out. That's my prediction. Go on.

[01:01:45]>> All right. The very idea that they're trying it >> Yes. Yes. Yes. It's it's so obnoxious it >> that that they're trying it and this isn't a lead story on on every news program Matt is beyond belief. I mean we have so degenerated, we have been so debased by the rank pathetic global historically record setting vulgar corruption for a democracy that I think we need to draw a lesson.

[01:02:17]And the lesson is this to me if we're serious about what we're talking about and this is the real danger. It's bigger than the other things that divide right and left. So the normals on all side have to get together because to make changes in the American system that's proven itself to be so vulnerable to this degree of debasement.

[01:02:38]Uh and it's so difficult of course to change anything. If you believe it's vulnerable, you want to change it. You can't change anything without threequarters of the states and of course half the states are red states with three and a half farmers and they'll never agree. So we have a massive issue with a built-in time bomb created by the founding fathers who were such a religion in America uh that made it impossible to change a system that for today's reality is fatally flawed. We got an issue in America as George Bush used to say it.

[01:03:12]And the only way to fix it is to create a massive majority party that sidesteps the leftight issues today and tries to fix the system. And if we did that and we got all the Romney and all the McCain's and all the, you know, Cheney not just whispering that they voted for a Democrat, but actually being on side, there's a chance to do reforms that America needs like oxygen. And let me tell you, because I'm currently outside of America, everyone can see this. It's clear that the system is is is is a fatal disease. And yet, even in the death rows of its fatal disease, you can tell that it's still potentially the best country in the world. So, you have this incredible, unbelievable tug-of-war between a best country in the world and a seriously screwed up place. And I'd like to fix it, but it goes, I think, through the path I outlined.

[01:04:12]>> I think that's a wonderful note for us to try to wrap up on. And I'll just say three additional things. one, everyone should follow, subscribe to um get a hold of what's going on at ask questions later. That is Dan Perry's Substack here. We are live streaming on Sub if you're catching us on Substack. We're live streaming there right now. And if you're subscribed to my Substack, there it is. Uh Dan is the co-host. Uh if you're a member of Dan's, I hope you will pop over and uh subscribe to me, which you should.

[01:04:44]>> Worth Knowing.substack.com.

[01:04:46]Uh number two, um look, I I actually I feel good. I feel like you have given the blessing to the core thesis here, which is that the authoritarian moment is starting to crack. Um and in fact, you've added stronger arguments to it than I must not be too confident. We have reason to be optimist.

[01:05:05]>> No one's no one's no one's uh you know, no one's throwing a mission accomplished party yet. But um I I will take any dose of hope that I possibly can. Speaking of which, I hope people will check out uh Worth Knowing YouTube where we have Dose of Hope uh every week as part of the political rehab show. That link is up on the screen. And finally, on a very very hopeful note, you know, look um people were having fun in the chat with this.

[01:05:29]So, I just thought I'd share it because maybe not everyone's seen it. This is the image that Trump posted uh of himself. And the only note >> that's the one I referenced. Yes. The only note I would add to this otherwise brilliant piece of alien erotica is that I wish the shackles were on a different set of hands and hopefully in the not too distant future they will be. So, on that delightful note for Dan, I'm Matt.

[01:05:56]In the next week, just stay safe, be well.