Russian Oil Output COLLAPSES Amid Ukrainian Drone Strikes

追加: 2026-06-05

[00:00:00]If you blow up oil refineries, you can refine less oil. It sounds shocking, I know, but even the presidents of the United States and apparently Russia seemed blissfully unaware of this fact.

[00:00:12]But leaked documents make it clear that the Russian government is really hurting from the collapsing uh refining capability thanks to Ukrainian drone strikes. Let's talk about it. If there's one lesson that we've learned from Iran, it's that just because you had the tools and training to be the best in the past doesn't mean that you are prepared for an everchanging future. And that's true whether you are responsible for the Pentagon or just for your family's safety. Thankfully, today's sponsor, USCCCA, is here to make sure you stay trained and prepared. USCCA has over 800,000 members, everyday Americans like you and me, who have decided they aren't going to let their preparedness pass them by. They give you the tools to be mentally, physically, and legally prepared. Members get access to the Protector Academy, a secure online training portal with checklists, ebooks, video guides, and more. Video-based byte-size training makes it easy to build realworld skills like AR-15 dryf fire drills or pistol instruction. Plus, there's a host of other perks like gear discounts, concealed carry print magazine, even a 247 legal emergency helpline. And every member receives insurance on a self-defense liability policy purchased by USCCCA. If you're ever forced to defend yourself, the aftermath can be expensive, even if you're justified. USCCA helps protect your freedom because one bad day can ruin your life if you're not prepared for what comes after. Don't wait for a wakeup call. Download the free concealed carry and family defense guide at my link below. Two, the actual output. So, using, for example, gasoline, which is three, a little over $3 a gallon when purchased in bulk. But I think that's interesting because remember a barrel of oil has about 42 gallons inside of it. So when you do the math, you realize that you're adding more than 50% of the value to that product by using running it through a refinery. And so what does that mean though? Well, for Russia, it means that one of their most important sources, the important source of revenue for their government is under constant Ukrainian attack. In fact, Keefe struck Russian oil refineries more than 180 times in 2025, and those numbers are really ramping up. Notably, for example, uh the uh oil plant in the Black Sea, uh Touabsa was hit for the fifth time just a few days ago. And this is insane because I want you to understand that hitting one of these massive oil complexes five straight times implies that Russian air defenses are effectively failing. they appear to be collapsing and it's actually for once Ukraine's smaller size is its advantage because it's able to protect it more of its territory with air defense systems whereas Russia because of its vast size cannot protect all of its critical sites at once and Putin has made clear that protecting residential centers and government decision-making bodies is more important than protecting the economically crucial oil terminals. So, TuPSA again hit five straight times. Of course, the damage the Russian government claims is from falling drone debris. Obviously, multiple fires on the storage tanks. That's what happens when they get hit with a piece of uh carbon fiber or re or plastic. Now, this is only a fraction though of the problems facing the Russian economy.

[00:04:09]For example, they found that Rostat found that the oil and gas sector was down by about 2.7%. You can see refining doing terrible, manufacturing up slightly, electricity and gas up slightly, water and utilities up slightly. All of these I think may be reflective of rising oil prices being passed on to consumers maybe. Mining and extraction also down. And so but again remember these are not equally weighted sectors in the Russian economy effectively I mean water and utilities are not you cannot run an economy by providing public public utilities you need a productive sector and in that case it is oil and gas and oil and gas is the only one that's really being hurt right now but that's not the only problem Russia's facing right let me show you some of the headlines from the Moscow Times business section right here. For example, Russian wage arars.

[00:05:11]This is unpaid wages nearly double as regional budgets and businesses come under strain. Russia's overdue wage debt doubled in April from a year earlier and an almost six-fold surge since the start of 2025. Another sign of mounting financial strain on businesses and regional budgets. This is crazy.

[00:05:31]They're talking about nearly $40 million of unpaid wages due to well lack of economic activity.

[00:05:40]And this affects 19,000 workers, which is not that much in the grand scheme of things, right? Russia is a large country. But that is still a large country with not a lot of workers at baseline. How then can you have both a labor shortage and 19,000 laborers who can't be paid? Well, it only happens in the Russian economy and it's pretty straightforward, right? This is a clear signal of worsening financial conditions for companies. And again, the overall level of wage arars remains modest. At this growth rate, it may not remain modest for long. But that's just one.

[00:06:15]Russia's housing developers are bracing for a prolonged slump after the Russia rewrote its mortgage rules in order to stop having to pay so many subsidized mortgages. You also have the Russian government being unable to sell a portion of their literal gold mining operation. That's right, guys. a operation to literally pull gold out of the ground is so in such bad financial straits that the Russian government cannot find anyone to sell it and this is the third time they've tried to do so. The only interested bid bidder was ultimately barred from participating.

[00:06:55]This is these are these are really strong yellow alerts for the Russian economy that their previous model of sell gas, fund a war machine, pay huge bonuses, throw soldiers into the meat grinder and repeat the process. That that's no longer working. It is not sustainable.

[00:07:17]And we have talked about this that the Russian economy looks good, a war economy looks good until it doesn't. And the problem especially is that Russia doesn't want a war economy. Ukraine is in a war economy. You can't miss it. But Russia and Vladimir Putin, it's very important for his m maintenance of his hold on power to avoid militarizing the entire economy, creating a general mobilization or spreading it spreading kind of military crackdowns throughout the whole of the country. It's just not happening and it can't happen because of the political blowback that Putin would face. So what that means is that instead of militarizing the economy fully, he has created these shell games where he again robs Peter to pay Paul. And we're seeing it. Russian services are being cut. Russian federal budgets are being cut. I mean, imagine how you would feel if you uh if uh boomers no longer got their social security checks because of the Iran war. We said, "Listen, we got to we got to we got to recruit more soldiers to throw into an Iran meat grinder." If they said, "Listen, we're we're actually going to be cutting uh hospitals in a lot of states to pay for the Iran war, right? How long would Americans tolerate that sort of thing?"

[00:08:38]Uh, hey, the government no longer Franny Fanny May or Freddy Mack, they're no longer guaranteeing mortgages. So, you can't get a 30-year mortgage anymore.

[00:08:46]You you you're get a floating rate mortgage.

[00:08:49]Nobody would accept those things, right?

[00:08:52]And Putin knows this, but he's starting to have to make those kinds of decisions here as he really runs out of people and money to fund his war machine. Anyway, guys, thanks to Brendan, GS, Alfred, Peter, Gerard, Allan, William, Alex, Thomas, Jeff, Christine, and all the lieutenant here folks. We really appreciate you guys, and we'll see you in the next one. Cheers.