How Gamma Exposure Looks Heading Into June

本站添加: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]The stock market hit new all-time highs again during Friday's trading session getting all the way up to the 7600 level, closing at 75.8012.

[00:00:09]We've been talking about the gamma exposure at the 7600 strike for the last couple of weeks. And pretty surprising how quick we hit that level. If we come out here to our 3D surface model, you can see the largest gamma exposure concentration in the June opex. That's June 18th. That's sitting at 7600. So, we've already hit that level and it looks like that's kind of a cap in terms of positioning. Uh, we have to come all the way out here into the July expiration before we really see any significant further upside concentrations. You can see this gam exposure at the 7,800 strike out in the July options expiration. So, we may actually be reaching the upper limit of where positioning is currently allowing the market to go. We'll see if there's enough capital inflows in the coming weeks to push this above the 7600 level.

[00:00:59]But if we just look over the last couple of weeks, you know, the trend has been strong up and to the right. If this breaks, and it's getting awfully close as we hit the 50 EMA on the 15minute chart going back for two weeks. We've been holding that level. If this breaks anytime next week, we could see a swift move down to 7500 or potentially 7,400 on a slightly deeper near-term correction. And you can see these are the largest gam exposure concentrations as well heading out for the next few weeks. And guys, we're going to talk about a few potentially big breakout plays here in just a second. But first, let's take a look at the volatility index because this has been guiding most of our decisionmaking on top of positive gamma exposure. The volatility index has really just been crashing off of those highs back at the 30 level from the beginning of April. And so over the last 6 to8 weeks, we've seen tremendous pressure from V sellers coming in here, especially since we got below the 50-day EMA. That's been holding as an upside resistance. We never were able to break out above that. And now we're approaching the lows that we saw back here on Christmas Eve last December.

[00:02:09]Looking ahead to next week, we still see big negative game exposure at the 15 strike. We're still seeing volume, of course, coming in at upside strikes.

[00:02:18]That's mostly just investors taking advantage of cheap portfolio protection and we've actually seen a shift lower where most of that volume is now between the 20 and 25 strike as opposed to the 30 and 40 strike. So a big shift lower from V sellers and from GAM exposure positioning in the options market.

[00:02:37]Turning next to the Q's. I wanted to take a look specifically at the Q's as this has been really the where the major leadership over the last 6 to 8 weeks has been in the market. the Q's closing at 738.25 during Friday's trading session. Looking at the gam exposure structure here on the Q's, we are seeing a lot more negative gam exposure popping up than we are seeing on S&P and SPY.

[00:03:00]Although we do still have the largest positive gam exposure up here at the 750 strike. That kind of leaves room for another 1 to 2% move to the upside. But you can see the upside reward potential is certainly capped compared to the downside risk potential just looking ahead in the next 4 to 8 weeks. So with all this negative gamma exposure building here all the way down to the 675 strike that actually puts us back in the range of the 50-day EMA and seeing the cues this far above the 50-day EMA which is currently sitting at 67150. The potential for a pullback is growing. and we haven't seen a trigger event yet, but it is something to pay close attention to. I think one of the things we're going to be watching in particular is SMH, the semiconductor ETF. You know, just looking at a lot of the semiconductor names that have really taken off, names like AMD and Nvidia, they do appear to potentially be weakening here. And actually, over the last four trading sessions, the semiconductor ETF is really hasn't gone anywhere. We do see large negative gamma exposure popping up basically from 500 to 550 right here in this zone. And that zone really just takes us back to where we were trading earlier in May right around that 525 mark. You can see there's actually some support there from our last recent breakout of the most recent leg higher. So heading into this next week, we're going to be watching SMH in particular this 588 level. If this level breaks, we could see some further downside in the cues and in the broader market as well. So, this is a actually a major key level that we're going to be watching for a breakdown for potential short opportunities. Next, I want to take a look at a few breakout plays that we are watching very closely.

[00:04:48]The first is service. Now, we've mentioned this several times in our recent videos. The 105 level actually is a big breakout level. We got just above that on Thursday's session and Friday we saw the followth through trading up nearly 15% during Friday's trading session. And in fact, we were actually trading this in our 10K portfolio last week. If we just scroll up here, you can actually see we entered this on May 28th. So on Thursday, right after the open, we entered the 115125 call debit spreads for $218.

[00:05:22]noting this potential breakout and the gamma exposure that was building all the way up to the 125 strike. Fast forward to Friday's trading session, so just one trading day, we locked in over a 150% gain. That was $981 profit in our 10K portfolio. Basically selling those June 18th 115125 call debit spreads for $545.

[00:05:47]And by the way guys, you can track our trades in real time by becoming a member at geeksofinance.com.

[00:05:52]You can also get a sneak peek of what we're trading right now by checking out our community Discord links in the description below. And from our opinion, it looks like the move may just be getting started. We're back above the 50-day EMA on service now. Haven't been back above that 50 EMA in quite a while.

[00:06:10]So getting back above that. And there's actually another breakout level here at the 125 strike that we're watching. So even though we exited our position locking in those profits on Friday, we're looking at potentially another call debit spread to the upside. We're seeing gam exposure growing at the 150 strike now. So positioning coming in and you can even see this volume here. 20 30 40,000 contracts traded between the 120 strike all the way up to that 160 strike. So this could be another major breakout level here at 125 for further upside. We're going to be watching this closely Monday and Tuesday to see if we get a confirmation and we'll actually reenter a position on Service Now at that point. And sticking with our SAS related theme, you know, the a lot of these names have really been beaten down over the last 6 months. Salesforce is another name that has been beaten down.

[00:07:03]And just on Friday's trading session, we saw a big move up, finally closing above that 50-day EMA, closing at 19112. the 50-day EMA sitting at 18345. We see big gamma exposure at the 200 strike and we're starting to see some big volume at higher strikes as well. So, this is something we want to pay attention to the volume coming in here basically between 200 and 250 275 300. We want to see if that maintains and transfers over into positioning in gamma exposure at these higher strikes. We're looking at this for potential entry. We want to see some followth through across the broader SAS theme in the market. Uh because if there is a shift back from the AI infrastructure trade back into SAS, we could see a lot of these names which are on the verge of breaking out. We could see further follow through the same way we saw Service Now breaking out. We could see that across a lot of other names. I think Salesforce is near the top of that list that we're looking at adding positions on. Next, let's take a look at Apploving. We've been trading this quite a bit over the last couple of months. Big breakout over the last week from the 500 to the 600 level. This gam exposure at 600. And so we've been trading for a breakout up to that level.

[00:08:17]We were able to lock in some profits.

[00:08:19]Interestingly enough on Friday though, we're seeing big volume coming in and gam exposure building at that 700 strike. So you can clearly see the big level at 500 certainly served as a big breakout point. That was prior resistance which turned to support between the September through January time frame. And now that this bottoming process appears to be finished, we could see a move up to 700 in the coming weeks and months. So what I'd like to see is a little bit of consolidation right around this 600 level maybe for the next week or so. In the ideal world, that's what we would see as this 50-day moving average continues to catch up. So anywhere in this zone would be great for an entry point for the next leg up to that 700 strike. That's another name kind of software related that we're looking at adding into our 10K portfolio for a potential second leg higher up to that 700 strike. And guys, our market FOMO sale is still active. You can get an additional $300 off our yearly portfolio manager tier subscription. Use code May FOMO at checkout. This discount's going to be ending soon, so definitely take advantage of it while you can. Members get full access to our gamma exposure dashboard, our option flow analytics tools, as well as our algorithmic trading strategies. And you'll also get access to the premium channels in our community Discord. We've got a ton of great members in there sharing their own trade setups and strategies, and you can also track our trades in real time as we manage our options portfolio. It's a great resource. Definitely check it out when you get a chance. links in the description below.